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Royals Notes: Lineup Needs, Outfield, Wacha, Frazier

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Royals brass held their end-of-season press conference today, with general manager J.J. Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro fielding questions from MLB.com’s Anne Rogers (two links) and other reporters about the club’s successful 2024 campaign and some of their plans for the coming offseason.

While Picollo described the Royals’ offense as “acceptable” overall, the team is looking for bookends around the powerful 2-3-4 lineup combination of Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez.  The Royals relied heavily on that trio for most of their offense, and thus finding a more consistent leadoff hitter and no. 5 hitter are the first steps in increasing production.

Picollo noted that impending free agent Tommy Pham did a good job in stabilizing the leadoff spot after Pham was claimed off waivers from the Cardinals at the end of August.  In general, however, “that leadoff spot, we were circulating guys all year long, trying to find the right person….Every lineup, and the better lineups that we faced, they’re deep,” Picollo said.  “The more you can push guys down, the better our lineup will be. You start with a leadoff man, and then you try to find somebody in the middle of the lineup, as well.  The deeper you get, the more explosive you can be as an offense.”

Kansas City batters had a collective .306 on-base percentage this season, ranking 19th of 30 teams.  Witt’s .389 OBP did a lot of the heavy lifting on that cumulative total, as Yuli Gurriel (in only 65 plate appearances) ranked second on the team with a .338 OBP, followed by Perez at .330.  Maikel Garcia had the majority of at-bats out of the leadoff spot and his strong third base defense kept him in the lineup, but he hit only .231/.281/.332 over 626 PA.  Garcia’s 69 wRC+ was the lowest of any qualified hitter in baseball this season.

Despite Garcia’s lack of production, Picollo said Garcia and left fielder MJ Melendez (who also struggled) will be counted to improve at the plate as they head into their fourth Major League campaigns.  However, Picollo singled out the outfield as a natural area where the Royals could add some power and more offense in general, as only the Pirates and White Sox got less production from their outfielders in 2024 than the 79 wRC+ posted by Kansas City’s outfield mix.

“Generally speaking, when you’re looking at left field, right field, that’s where you’re thinking about power guys,” Picollo said.  “And we know this ballpark doesn’t lend itself to homers, but it does lend itself to slug.  So we’ve got to be more productive there.  And that’s where being optimistic about some of the guys that we have and looking at the experience they had, I think that’s fine.”

Right field is the most logical target area if Hunter Renfroe declines his $7.5MM player option for 2025, though Picollo said he hadn’t yet spoken to Renfroe about his upcoming decision.  Renfroe can take a $1MM buyout and return to free agency, but it probably seems likelier than Renfroe will take the larger $7.5MM payday after a sub-replacement season.  Renfroe had a -0.1 fWAR over 120 games with Kansas City, hitting .229/.297/.392 with 15 home runs, and he sandwiched a red-hot stretch in June and July between ice-cold performances in the first two and final two months of the regular season.

Kyle Isbel was also a below-average hitter but at least played some solid defense in center field, so he might have the most job security of all Royals outfielders heading into 2025.  If K.C. did indeed pick up a new corner outfielder or two, Renfroe, Melendez, Dairon Blanco, and Nelson Velazquez could all be vying for part-time or bench duty, or the Royals could look to move any to create roster space.

On the pitching end, Michael Wacha will have to decide on either exercising or declining his $16MM player option for the 2025 season.  Wacha’s excellent changeup powered his 3.35 ERA over 166 2/3 innings in his first season with the Royals, and induced a ton of soft contact while posting an above-average 6.6% walk rate.  Though his lack of strikeouts and velocity will always limit his market to some extent, Wacha has now posted very solid results in each of the last three seasons, and should certainly find a multi-year pact again on the open market this year.

Even if the likelihood is that Wacha does pass on his option, Picollo said “there’s no question we’d like to have him back.  How we go about that, I’m not sure just yet….He’s going to have opportunities with other clubs.  So we’ll work on that.”

The Royals aim to add more pitching with or without Wacha still in the rotation, though obviously it will be a more glaring need if Wacha does head elsewhere.  Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Brady Singer still combine for a nice top three and Alec Marsh earned himself a rotation job, so on paper Kansas City would have plenty of internal candidates to compete for just one open starting job.  But as Picollo noted, “we were remarkably healthy this year,” so the club expects to need more pitching in the likely even that the Royals aren’t as lucky in avoiding the injury bug.

As to how much the Royals will have to spend for any upgrade, Picollo was naturally unspecific on the topic, but he felt owner John Sherman would have as much “flexibility” with the payroll as last winter.  “I would suspect it would be very similar,” the GM said.  “Not necessarily in, ’We’re going to spend $100 million,’ but more so his flexibility, him being open-minded to what our team’s needs are.”

RosterResource estimates that the Royals finished the year with a payroll of slightly more than $113.5MM, which represents the franchise’s biggest spend since its $122.2MM payroll on Opening Day 2018.  An increase in attendance and two playoff games should boost revenue, but the Royals are also one of the teams whose broadcast deals with Diamond Sports Group will be severed as part of DSG’s ongoing bankruptcy proceedings.

It remains to be seen if the Royals could work out a new deal with DSG/Bally Sports for the 2025 season or if the team might seek out another broadcast partner, or pursue an agreement with Major League Baseball itself to broadcast games (as six other clubs have done).  While obviously a lot of uncertainty exists here, it should be noted that the Royals’ previous deal with Bally was already up after the 2025 season, and the team still went ahead and had a relatively big spending splurge last winter even with the looming questions about its broadcast future.

In some injury updates, Hunter Harvey, James McArthur, and Chris Stratton should all be ready for the start of Spring Training after finishing the season on the injured list.  Some health uncertainty awaits Adam Frazier, who will be undergoing some type of procedure on his right thumb this week.

Frazier had a minimal 10-day IL stint in late June/early July due to a sprain in that same thumb, and an injury could explain his rough hitting numbers, as the veteran batted only .202/.282/.294 in 294 PA.  Kansas City is sure to decline its end of an $8.5MM mutual option on Frazier for 2025, and he’ll be bought out for $2.5MM.  Between his down year and perhaps this surgery impacting his readiness, Frazier may have to settle for a minor league pact in free agency.

Royals Place MJ Melendez On Injured List

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The Royals announced that outfielder MJ Melendez has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to July 15, due to a left ankle sprain. No corresponding move was immediately announced as the club doesn’t play again until Friday due to the All-Star break.

Melendez, 25, departed the club’s most recent game on Sunday after apparently injuring himself running out a ground ball. Bally Sports Kansas City provided video of the play on X. Due to the off-days in the break, it’s possible he could return after only missing a handful of games, but the team will likely provide more information about his expected absence in the days to come.

It’s unfortunate timing for Melendez personally, as he was heating up a bit after an awful first half. He hit .181/.249/.353 through the end of June for a wRC+ of 64, indicating he was 36% worse than the league average hitter. He then put up a torrid line of .273/.314/.606 in 35 July plate appearances, but whatever momentum he was carrying into the break will now be put on ice.

It’s been a frustrating season in what has already been a disappointing big league career for Melendez. He was considered one of the top 100 prospects in the sport as he climbed towards the majors, with Baseball America putting him in the #42 overall spot heading into 2022. But he hit just .227/.314/.396 over 2022 and 2023 for a wRC+ of 95.

The Royals gradually moved him from the catcher position to the outfield in that time. He was blocked by Salvador Perez anyway but the Royals likely hoped that a less-demanding defensive position could perhaps help him develop offensively, but that hasn’t really materialized. Even with his recent hot streak, he’s still hitting just .192/.257/.385 on the year overall for a 75 wRC+ and his career-long performance leads to a line of .219/.303/.393 and a 92 wRC+.

Despite the struggles of Melendez, it’s been a good season for the club overall. They went 56-106 last year but have almost matched that win total already. They are currently 52-45 and just two games out of a playoff spot. That’s been largely in spite of their horrendous production on the grass, as Melendez and his fellow outfielders have hit .216/.276/.361 on the year for a 76 wRC+, dead last in the majors.

Adding to the outfield is an obvious target area for the club prior to the July 30 deadline and general manager J.J. Picollo has admitted that it’s something they will be exploring. For now, the group consists of Hunter Renfroe, Kyle Isbel and Dairon Blanco, with infielders Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson capable of moving out there as well. With Melendez hitting the IL, the club could recall someone like Nelson Velázquez, Drew Waters or Nick Pratto to take his spot.

It’s distinctly possible that group gets a significant shakeup via trades in the next few weeks and looks completely different by August. If Melendez returns from the IL and finds himself squeezed from playing time, he does still have options and could be sent to the minors if the club so chooses.

Royals Exploring Pitching Market, Have Interest In Seth Lugo

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The Royals have been “aggressive” in their search for rotation help this offseason and made an offer to right-hander Sonny Gray before he signed with the Cardinals, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal further writes that the Royals are among the teams showing strong interest in right-hander Seth Lugo, who’s drawn widespread interest this winter.

Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo has made no secret about his desire to add to his rotation, plainly stating early in the offseason that “one of our goals is to get starting pitching.” The Royals need at least one arm and could well look to add multiple pieces to the rotation between now and Opening Day. The Royals got a breakout showing from Cole Ragans after acquiring him from the Rangers in exchange for Aroldis Chapman this past summer, and right-hander Brady Singer is likely locked into a rotation spot even after an up-and-down year (and, more broadly, up-and-down big league tenure in terms of performance). Beyond that, the Royals have veteran innings eater Jordan Lyles signed for next season and are surely still hopeful of getting some quality innings from former top prospects Kris Bubic (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Daniel Lynch.

That said, the Royals have been hoping for the quartet of Singer, Lynch, Bubic and Jackson Kowar to eventually emerge at the MLB level for several seasons. That group comprised the nucleus of a vaunted 2018 crop of college arms around whom the Royals hoped to build, but their development hasn’t panned out. Singer had a brilliant 2022 season and took a step back in 2023. Bubic had Tommy John surgery early in 2023. Kowar has been twice traded this offseason and is now in the Mariners organization.

Rosenthal suggests that in their quest to find rotation upgrades, the Royals have been willing to talk about trades of former top catching/outfield prospect MJ Melendez, infielder Michael Massey and catcher Freddy Fermin. Melendez and Massey, however, are coming off dismal 2023 campaigns. The former is a .227/.314/.396 hitter in 1136 MLB plate appearances and has posted bottom-of-the-scale defensive grades both behind the plate and in the outfield corners. The latter got his first full-time look in ’23 but managed only a .229/.274/.381 slash with mixed defensive ratings (-9 Defensive Runs Saved, +3 Outs Above Average). Both players still have five seasons of remaining club control.

Fermin, meanwhile, looks to be a late-blooming option capable of handling a regular workload behind the dish, be it for the Royals or another club. He entered the 2023 season with just seven MLB plate appearances but wound up tallying 235 trips to the plate with a .281/.321/.461 output and nine home runs. Defensive Runs Saved credited Fermin at a hearty mark of +8, and both FanGraphs and Statcast credited him as an above average framer. Statcast also tabbed Fermin as league-average in terms of blocking balls in the dirt, and his 31% caught-stealing rate checked in 10 percentage points above the league average.

Age and lack of big league track record notwithstanding, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding Fermin and his breakout rookie season. However, that also makes him quite valuable to a Royals club that has an aging Salvador Perez behind the plate. Perez’s defensive ratings have been in a freefall for the past few seasons, and his production at the plate has also begun to wane. The 33-year-old (34 in May) team captain still smacked 23 home runs last year, but his overall .255/.292/.422 batting line was his weakest since 2018. Perez still caught 91 games last year (against 29 at DH), but at some point the Royals could begin playing him more regularly at DH, which would open time for Fermin. Perez is still signed for another two years at a total of $44MM.

Since Rosenthal reports that Kansas City has spoken with the Marlins and Mariners about pitching-related trades, Miami might stand out as a logical team that could have interest in Fermin’s services.  The Fish are in need of catching help, and seem to be open to the idea of dealing more pitching, after already parting ways with a decent chunk of their rotation depth in other trades over the last couple of years.

As for the team’s free-agent pursuits, Lugo is a sensible and logical target both due to his strong platform season and the fact that the Royals also reportedly had interest in him a year ago. After spending the bulk of his career as a reliever with the Mets, Lugo signed a two-year, $15MM deal with the Padres, who offered him a chance to start and even included an opt-out in the event that he showed well in a starting role.

That’s exactly how things played out. Lugo took the ball 26 times and posted a 3.57 ERA with a 23.2% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate in a career-high 146 1/3 innings. He’s already 34, but Lugo figures to command a much nicer multi-year deal this time around — perhaps reaching three years in length. That the length of his deal will likely be capped due to age should be appealing to the Royals, who typically operate on a tight budget but do have some spending flexibility this winter. Picollo has already said that his club should have at least $30MM to spend.

Picollo: Royals Have At Least $30 Million To Spend This Offseason

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The Royals have been relatively active over the first month of the offseason, inking one of the four free agent position players to sign so far this winter and trading for two pitchers ahead of the non-tender deadline in November. Still, the front office has plenty of work to do if the team is going to improve upon a 56-106 record in 2024. On Monday, Royals general manager J.J. Picollo spoke with members of the media at the Winter Meetings to discuss the team’s plans for the remainder of the offseason.

Most notably, Picollo revealed that he has at least $30MM to spend in free agency (as relayed by Jaylon Thompson of The Kansas City Star). That could bring the team’s 2024 payroll just over $100MM, a total the Royals have not surpassed since 2019. What’s more, the executive suggested he could spend beyond that estimate for the right players.

Presumably, Picollo will use most of his budget to improve a pitching staff that finished second-last in the AL in ERA, SIERA, and FanGraphs WAR last season. He specified that he would like to acquire one starting pitcher and two relievers, one of whom would hopefully step into the closer’s role.

While Picollo didn’t identify any particular targets, he stated on MLB Network Radio that the Royals “can be competitive” in the price range several free agent starting pitchers have already signed for. Presumably, he’s not referring to Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, but instead the next tier down. That means pitchers like Kyle Gibson, Kenta Maeda, Luis Severino, Nick Martinez, and Lance Lynn, all of whom signed for an annual average salary in the $11MM to $13MM range.

During his appearance on MLB Network Radio, Picollo also touched on the non-monetary side of free agent negotiations. Factors beyond money are particularly relevant for a rebuilding team like the Royals, as they try to convince free agents they are an attractive destination despite their recent string of losing seasons. “When you’re recruiting free agents they want to know what your plan is,” he said. “So our process has got to be pretty deep and thorough because we’re really selling those players on what we can do for them.”

One name on many fans’ minds is Zack Greinke, who became a free agent following the 2023 season. According to Picollo (and as relayed by Thompson), the Royals are still waiting to hear if the six-time All-Star plans to retire this winter. While he isn’t the star he used to be during his first run with Kansas City, Greinke has been a reliable innings eater for the Royals over the last two seasons, pitching 279 1/3 innings with a 4.38 ERA. Given his popularity within the organization, his solid performance over the past two years, and the team’s lack of pitching depth, one would think the Royals would be interested if Greinke decided to pitch again in 2024, but Picollo stopped short of confirming as much.

He did, however, confirm that MJ Melendez will continue to play the outfield next season. The 25-year-old was once one of the top catching prospects in baseball, but he transitioned to a full-time outfield role this past season. His defense never stood out behind the plate, where he was blocked in the Royals organization by Salvador Perez anyhow. With the emergence of backup catcher Freddy Fermin, and with the way Melendez improved at the plate after he stopped catching in 2023, it doesn’t come as much of a surprise that the Royals are going to keep him in the outfield going forward.

Finally, Picollo revealed that first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino is ready to return to normal baseball activities over the winter after missing the final four months of the 2023 season with a torn labrum in his right shoulder. According to Thompson, the team will provide further information on his status during today’s media session.

The Most Alarming Aspect Of Royals’ Disappointing Season

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The Royals are much closer to the worst team in baseball than a playoff spot. While Kansas City wasn’t expected to make the postseason, there’s no question the organization envisioned better results than they had in the first half.

There are a number of reasons for the club’s underperformance. The most concerning theme for the organization has been the down years and/or injury issues for most of their top young talent. Kansas City expected to be further along in the rebuild by now. Instead, a lot of the players they’ve envisioned as a developing core have plateaued or gone backwards.

That’s not unanimously true. Bobby Witt Jr. has stolen 27 bases, connected on 14 home runs and taken a huge step defensively. Even with a modest .300 on-base percentage, he looks like the franchise shortstop the Royals wanted when selecting him with the 2nd overall pick in 2019. Rookie Maikel Garcia has taken over third base with plus exit velocities and strong defense.

Aside from the left side of the infield, the Royals’ young players have mostly underwhelmed, however.

Melendez, a 2nd-round selection in 2017, emerged as one of the sport’s top prospects with a 41-homer showing in the upper minors two years ago. The left-handed hitter connected on 18 longballs with a roughly average .217/.313/.393 line as a rookie in 2022. His power production has fallen off this year; he carries a meager .206/.289/.333 mark with six homers in 346 trips to the plate.

While Melendez walks a fair amount, he offsets that with big strikeout totals. He has gone down on strikes nearly 30% of the time this season. That puts a lot of pressure on him to hit for power, no small feat in one of the sport’s most pitcher-friendly home parks. Melendez has a huge 93 MPH average exit velocity and is making hard contact (95+ MPH) on over half his batted balls. There’s clearly power upside in there. He’s not in a great environment to maximize it and is striking out too frequently though.

Were Melendez catching every day, that offensive profile would be more acceptable. With Salvador Perez behind the dish, the Royals have deployed the youngster mostly in the corner outfield. Well below-average offense at a bat-first position means he’s playing at a worse than replacement level rate.

The Royals invested heavily in college pitching in the 2018 draft. Singer was the only member of the group who put together mid-rotation results, seemingly breaking out with a 3.23 ERA over 27 appearances last season. He’s gone in the opposite direction this year.

Over 18 starts, the Florida product is allowing 5.80 earned runs per nine across 94 2/3 innings. His strikeouts and grounders are both at career-worst levels. Singer’s strikeout rate has dropped over six percentage points to a modest 18.1% clip. His swinging strikes are down to a below-average 8.5% of his offerings.

Singer’s arsenal has backed up. His sinker is averaging 92.3 MPH, down a tick and a half from last year’s level. His career-long struggle to find a changeup is still showing up in his results against left-handed hitters. Southpaws have a .292/.373/.489 line in 250 trips to the plate this year.

Lynch, the 34th overall selection in the aforementioned college-heavy ’18 draft, has started 50 games in his MLB career. The 6’6″ southpaw has yet to find much success, posting a 5.10 ERA over parts of three seasons. His 4.18 mark through eight starts is a personal low, though he’s paired it with a few alarming underlying indicators.

Most notably, Lynch’s velocity has taken a step back. He’s averaging 92.7 MPH on his heater, down from the 94 MPH range in which he sat in 2021-22. A Spring Training rotator cuff strain could explain that dip, although Lynch’s velocity has fallen even as he’s gotten further removed from the season-opening injured list stint. He averaged a season-low 91.6 MPH on his four-seam during his final start headed into the All-Star Break.

With the drop in speed has come a corresponding hit to his strikeouts. The Virginia product has fanned under 16% of opposing hitters. It’s the lowest rate of his career, down nearly five points from last season. Lynch’s 11.7% swinging strike percentage is still solid, so he’s not losing whiffs on a per-pitch basis, but he’s had a tougher time finishing off at-bats.

Pasquantino’s disappointing year has been more about health than performance. His .247/.324/.437 line was down markedly from a huge .295/.383/.450 rookie showing, but even the diminished version of Pasquantino was one of Kansas City’s top hitters. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old tore the labrum in his right shoulder and underwent surgery last month. His season is finished after just 61 games.

Pasquantino’s injury has opened regular playing time for the 24-year-old Pratto. Like Melendez, the lefty-hitting first baseman emerged as a top prospect based on huge power production in the upper minors. His profile also comes with significant swing-and-miss concerns, which have resurfaced at the MLB level.

Pratto is hitting .246/.331/.388 with six homers in a career-high 257 plate appearances. That’s better than the bulk of the Kansas City lineup, league average offense by measure of wRC+. Yet he’s needed a .395 average on balls in play to keep that production respectable. He’s striking out at a 37.7% clip, the highest rate among players with 250+ trips to the plate. If he’s to be a long-term regular, especially at a bat-first position, he’ll need to put the ball in play more frequently.

By the time the Royals acquired Waters from the Braves almost exactly one year ago, the outfielder’s stock was well down from its peak level. The switch-hitter had been a borderline Top 50 prospect at one point in the Atlanta farm system, but mounting strikeout issues in the upper minors raised questions about his offense. The Royals were buying low to some extent, though they still relinquished the 35th overall pick in last year’s draft (which Atlanta subsequently used on high school righty JR Ritchie) for Waters.

Kansas City wouldn’t have given up a pick that high if they didn’t believe Waters still had a chance to be an everyday player. An offseason trade of Michael A. Taylor cleared a path to center field reps. Waters’ hopes of starting on Opening Day were dashed by a left oblique strain that cost him the first two months of the season.

Since returning, the 24-year-old has put up a .239/.293/.354 line over 37 games. He’s striking out an untenable 37.4% rate. Perhaps there’s some rust to be shaken off after the extended absence, but Waters’ early results aren’t offering much hope he’s on the verge of a breakthrough. Whether he’ll make enough contact to be a regular is still in question.

With Waters opening the season on the shelf, the 26-year-old Isbel got the Opening Day nod in center field. He has just a .210/.258/.355 line in 37 contests. Isbel is making the most contact of his career but not hitting many line drives, and his overall production closely matches last year’s .211/.264/.340 slash. The former 3rd-round selection has been viewed by most evaluators as a fringe regular, although he still ranked among K.C.’s top ten prospects at Baseball America each season from 2019-22. He looks better suited for fourth/fifth outfield duty than a starting role.

Massey, 25, showed some promise with a .243/.307/.376 line as a rookie late last season. He got the Opening Day nod at second base this year but hasn’t seized the job. The left-handed hitter has a .220/.277/.320 mark with four homers over 220 plate appearances. Opposing pitchers have punched him out 28.2% of the time. Massey is hitting the ball reasonably hard but chasing too many pitches outside the strike zone to post a decent on-base mark.

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Without much progress from most of their young players, the Royals haven’t had many silver linings. A 26-65 record would be an obvious disappointment regardless of how it was happening, but it’s made more so by the scarcity of controllable players asserting themselves as key pieces for the future. Aside from Witt and arguably Garcia, none of Kansas City’s early-mid 20s talent is staking a firm claim to an important role for next season.

The  primary focus for the next few weeks will be which veteran players get moved at the deadline, with closer Scott Barlow standing out as their top trade chip. Once August 1 passes, the final couple months will be about evaluation. Can any of their currently scuffling controllable players turn things around to head into the offseason with positive momentum to build upon?

Royals Notes: Isbel, Waters, Melendez

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Royals center fielder Kyle Isbel left yesterday’s game against the Orioles with a left hamstring strain, as noted by MLB.com’s Anne Rogers. The severity of Isbel’s strain isn’t currently known, but it seems likely he’ll miss at least some time with the injury.

Isbel, was a third round pick by the Royals in the 2018 draft. He made his debut in 2021 with a solid 28-game cup of coffee, slashing .276/.337/.434 in 83 plate appearances, good for a wRC+ of 108. Paired with his excellent center field defense, that slash line left him poised to potentially be an above average regular for Kansas City going forward. Unfortunately, Isbel has yet to deliver on that promise, as his bat has taken a turn for the worse since the start of the 2022 season. Over the past two seasons, Isbel has slashed just .210/.260/.343 in 374 plate appearances, good for a wRC+ of just 65.

Isbel’s hamstring injury may put any attempts to get things back on track on hold for the 26-year-old outfielder. Despite his meager offensive performance, however, the injury still figures to be a considerable blow to the Royals if Isbel misses time. His glove in center field is still among the best available, and the club is lacking in center field depth. Outfielder Drew Waters, who opened the 2023 campaign on the injured list due to an oblique strain, seemed to be nearing a return, but recently suffered a setback and has yet to head out for a rehab assignment, per Rogers. That likely leaves Jackie Bradley Jr. to draw starts in center in the event that Isbel misses time, though Bradley has been even worse on offense this year, clocking in at 70% worse than league average by measure of wRC+ in 51 plate appearances.

The 24-year-old Waters was a top prospect in the Braves organization for years after they selected him in the second round of the 2017 draft, but was traded to Kansas City midway through the 2022 season following the breakout of Braves center fielder Michael Harris II, which left Waters largely blocked in Atlanta. Waters ultimately got into 32 games for the Royals last year, and was impressive during that time, with a .240/.324/.479 slash line that was good for a 125 wRC+. Whenever Waters is ready to return, he seems likely to become a fixture of the club’s outfield mix, which currently includes Edward Olivares and Hunter Dozier in addition to Isbel and Bradley.

Also part of the outfield mix is MJ Melendez, the club’s second round pick in the 2017 draft and a former top prospect. Still just 24 years old, Melendez is primarily a catcher by trade, but has been blocked at the big league level by the presence of franchise catcher Salvador Perez. They split time behind the plate in 2022, with Melendez also seeing time in the outfield and both players often sliding into the DH slot to ensure both received sufficient playing time. That system worked fairly well last year, as Melendez ultimately got into 129 games for the Royals, slashing .217/.313/.393 for a roughly league average wRC+ of 99.

Melendez has caught just 68 2/3 innings so far this season, however, and manager Matt Quatraro has indicated that Melendez will be working exclusively in the outfield for the time being following the club’s decision to call up Freddy Fermin to act as the backup catcher. Per Quatraro, the decision was made to help Melendez focus on his offense, which has taken a turn for the worse so far in the 2023 campaign. In 118 plate appearances this season, Melendez has slashed just .200/.280/.371 with a well below average wRC+ of 76 and a concerning 33.9% strikeout rate. Melendez getting right at the plate would provide a huge boost to the Royals going forward, as the club ranks bottom five in the majors in terms of runs scored so far this season.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Catching Market Rumors: Blue Jays, Contreras, Royals, Pirates

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Sean Murphy stands at the center of the offseason trade market for catchers, and the Oakland star is drawing plenty of interest. The Guardians, White Sox, Rays, Red Sox, Cardinals and even the Braves have all been linked to him recently, but the A’s are just one of two teams widely expected to trade a catcher this winter. The Blue Jays, who have a trio of Major League-caliber catchers on the roster — Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno — are also pondering the possibility of trading from that depth to address areas of need on the roster.

A trade involving one of the Toronto backstops, however, might not come together particularly quickly. In writing about the Twins’ desire to add to their catching corps, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported this week the Jays appear to be intent on waiting until some of the top names on the free-agent market have signed before they begin more earnestly engaging in talks with teams that miss out on their top targets. Jansen, with two years of club control remaining (as opposed to Kirk’s four and Moreno’s six), is the most logical trade option of the trio, but all three should draw considerable interest and prompt offers of some extent.

It’s worth bearing in mind, too, that one offer could accelerate the Jays’ willingness to make a deal, so even if their current preference is to let the market play out, that’s not a guarantee they’ll wait until Willson Contreras, Christian Vazquez and perhaps Murphy all have new teams before making a swap.

A few notes on the rest of the catching market…

  • The Marlins made an inquiry with Willson Contreras’ representatives but aren’t expected to be prominent players in his market, per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Unsurprisingly, Heyman suggests that Contreras’ price tag was deemed too steep for the Fish, who received underwhelming production from Jacob Stallings after acquiring him from the Pirates last offseason. Miami has been linked to trade interest in Contreras at multiple points in the past, so it’s only logical they’d at least gauge his price tag now that he’s on the open market. The 30-year-old is the top catcher available in free agency and seems likely to command a guarantee of four-plus years after a .243/.349/.466 showing with the Cubs. He rejected a qualifying offer from Chicago, so he’d cost any signing team a draft choice.
  • The Royals have drawn some trade interest in young catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The 24-year-old made his major league debut this year and hit .217/.313/.393 with 18 home runs across 534 plate appearances. That’s roughly league average output once one accounts for the diminished offensive environment and Kansas City’s cavernous ballpark, by measure of wRC+. Melendez, a recent top prospect, showed a promising combination of power and plate discipline while splitting his time between catcher, the corner outfield and designated hitter. Kansas City can control Melendez for six seasons and seems unlikely to deal him, although his path to everyday reps behind the plate is blocked by face of the franchise Salvador Perez. The seven-time All-Star is under contract through 2025, and the deal contains a club option for the ’26 season. Rosenthal unsurprisingly writes that Kansas City has no interest in trading Perez.
  • Roberto Perez’s first season with the Pirates was cut short after 21 games by a severe hamstring strain that required season-ending surgery. The veteran backstop, soon to turn 34, is back on the open market. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette speaks with a number of members of the Bucs’ pitching staff who hope the team re-signs Perez. Hurlers like JT Brubaker and Chase De Jong raved to Mackey about the longtime Cleveland backstop’s ability to connect with his pitchers and call a game. Perez has never been an impactful hitter, but he’s a two-time Gold Glove winner. The Pirates are sure to bring in some catching help this winter, as prospect Endy Rodriguez is currently the only player at the position on the 40-man roster.

Do The Royals Have A Problem Behind The Plate?

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Since winning the 2015 World Series, the Royals have been on a downward trajectory. The went 81-81 in 2016 and have been below .500 in the five seasons after that. After rebuilding the farm for a few years, the club has been trying to return to contention over the past couple of seasons by giving out some aggressive contracts, at least by their modest standards. It hasn’t worked out, with the past two seasons resulting in a fourth and fifth place finish in the weak AL Central.

A significant factor in the club’s results has been that many of their top pitching prospects have struggled in the majors. Brady Singer seems to be front of the pack now, despite posting a 4.91 ERA in 2021 and getting demoted to the bullpen to start 2022. He wound up back in the rotation and finished the season with a 3.23 ERA. Daniel Lynch was a 34th overall pick in 2019 but he has a 5.32 ERA in 199 2/3 innings thus far in the big leagues. Kris Bubic was taken 40th overall in 2018 but has a 4.89 ERA in over 300 MLB innings thus far. Jackson Kowar was selected 33rd overall in 2018 but has only been given 46 innings of action so far, in which he has a 10.76 ERA. Those are just a few examples of many.

For a team that doesn’t usually spend on marquee free agents, developing their own prospects into useful major leaguers is essential to their success and this is something they will need to get to the bottom of. Finding an explanation for all this likely won’t lead to a simple answer. It’s possible it has something to do with the scouting that led to those players being drafted in the first place, although public prospect evaluators have liked each of those players quite a bit. Perhaps it’s related to coaching or development in the minors. But it’s also possible the club’s major league catching is playing a role.

Salvador Perez has been the club’s catcher for over a decade now, having debuted in 2011 and firmly securing the job in 2013. He was the primary backstop as the club went to the World Series in consecutive years, winning the second trip in 2015. As much of that championship core moved on, he remained as the face of the franchise and unofficial captain. While he’s been above-average at the plate in each of the past three seasons, his defense is another matter.

Defensive Runs Saved has placed Perez at -5 in 2021 and -4 in 2022. Baseball Prospectus’ Catcher Defensive Adjustment gave him a -14.8 last year, which was last in the majors, and -14.1 this year, which was third-last. Though Perez has had success throwing out baserunners in his career, his pop time was ranked by Statcast as 50th out of 83 catchers this year.

In terms of framing, the problem appears to be more chronic. FanGraphs has only given him a positive grade in that department once, which was the shortened 2020 season. He posted a -19.6 and -12.6 over the past two campaigns, bringing his career tally to -106.5. That’s last in the majors among all catchers from 2011 to the present. Baseball Prospectus is fairly similar, as Perez has been tagged with a negative number in each season except for 2013 and 2020, with a -14.3 and -14.2 in the past two years. Statcast framing data only goes back to 2015, but it also isn’t fond of his work. Apart from an even zero in 2020, he has all negative numbers there, including a -8 this year, fifth-worst in the league, and a -18 last year, which was dead last.

All of this isn’t to say that Perez is solely responsible for the club’s pitching woes. As mentioned, baseball teams have dozens of coaches and analysts who all play a role in the results. But these numbers surely aren’t ideal when trying to mold a batch of pitching prospects into effective major leaguers. It’s also possible that health is playing a role, since Perez underwent left thumb surgery in 2022. He was supposed to be out of action eight weeks but returned after just over a month and maybe wasn’t 100%. If better health in 2023 leads to better outcomes, that would be fantastic for KC. But if it doesn’t and the problem persists, finding a solution will have multiple challenges.

For one thing, there’s the fact that Perez, who turns 33 in May, is still under contract for at least three more seasons. As part of an extension he and the club agreed to in 2021, he’ll get $20MM in 2023 and 2024, $22MM in 2025, and then a $13.5MM club option for 2026 with a $2MM buyout. For a low-spending team like the Royals, he’s easily their highest-paid player.

Due to Perez having the catching position on lockdown, that’s led to MJ Melendez playing elsewhere. Melendez was a highly-touted catching prospect when coming up through the minor league ranks, but he also played some third base and the corner outfield spots in the minors in order to open up new paths of getting into the lineup. He made it to the big leagues this year, making 65 starts behind the plate and 37 in the outfield.

The results of this have been mixed, to put it politely. At the plate, Melendez finished the season with a 99 wRC+. That’s just a hair below league average overall but slightly above average for a catcher. Defensively, all of the advanced metrics gave him poor grades for his work on the grass, which isn’t terribly surprising since he’s effectively learning on the fly out there. But his numbers behind the plate are also quite poor. DRS gave him a -18 in 2022, the worst in the majors. FanGraphs framing gave him a -15.7, also dead last. CDA at BP gave him a -18.6, also dead last. Their BlkR, a measure of a catcher’s blocking ability, gave him a -1.1, again, dead last. Statcast’s framing metric had him at -12, second-worst in the league.

To be fair to Melendez, he has been given sporadic playing time in his first taste of the majors, while also trying to learn other positions. Becoming a successful major league catcher is already challenging enough without those extra factors thrown in. He’s also still quite young, turning 24 years old later this month. Ideally, he’d be given a full-time catching job and have some time to refine his game and see if he can hack it in the majors, but it doesn’t seem like that will happen in Kansas City as long as Perez is there.

There’s been nothing to indicate the club is considering supplanting Perez as the everyday catcher, but even if they did, that path would have its own challenges. The Royals have a cluttered first base/designated hitter mix at the moment, with Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto, Ryan O’Hearn and Hunter Dozier all candidates for at-bats in those slots. Some of those guys are candidates to move to the outfield corners, though that’s less than ideal defensively and also could squeeze out guys like Drew Waters, Edward Olivares or Kyle Isbel.

Taken all together, it’s hard to figure out how to put these ingredients together in a way that leads to something appetizing. With Perez behind the plate, Melendez is likely serving as a part-time catcher and outfielder who isn’t great at either spot. Giving the job to Melendez crowds out the 1B/DH picture and doesn’t even necessarily lead to better work behind the plate. It’s possible that either arrangement leaves roadblocks in front of the young pitchers in the system.

Clearly frustrated by the continued losing, the club has decided a shakeup is in order. They recently fired their long-time baseball ops leader Dayton Moore, with general manager J.J. Picollo now in charge of baseball operations. They also made a change in the manager’s seat, firing Mike Matheny and replacing him with former Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro. They will be tasked with trying to turn a 65-win team into a contender. They’re looking up at a Cleveland team that just surged to the top and is built to stay strong for years to come. The White Sox and Twins had disappointing seasons in 2022 but will be looking to reload in 2022. There’s also a Tigers team that, though currently in a down cycle, is trying to overhaul its analytical systems and will surely spend aggressively once it does. The Royals have lots to deal with in the road ahead, but they might have to start by looking within.

Royals Looking To Acquire Right-Handed Bat, Open To Dealing From MLB Roster To Clear Payroll Space

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The Royals are interested in adding an experienced right-handed hitter this offseason, general manager J.J. Picollo tells Anne Rogers of MLB.com. The first-year baseball ops leader suggested the team’s defensive flexibility afforded them the ability to scour the market at multiple positions.

“The nice thing is, we have a lot of flexibility with the positional guys. A lot of guys that can play a lot of different positions. It doesn’t pigeonhole us into saying, ‘We need to go get this position,’” Picollo told Rogers. “I think we’re thinking more right-handed bat more so than left-handed. But we want the ability to match up and have the depth on our bench that allows us to make moves late in games.”

Kansas City has Bobby Witt Jr. locked in at shortstop, while Vinnie Pasquantino broke out to seize the first base job. Franchise icon Salvador Perez is locked in behind the plate, and Rogers writes that former top catching prospect MJ Melendez looks as if he’ll be the primary left fielder. Michael A. Taylor is under contract and the in-house favorite for playing time in center field, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if Kansas City floats him in trade talks considering how shallow the free agent market at the position is.

The rest of the position player group is a bit up in the air. Second and third base were primarily manned by rookies Michael Massey and Nate Eaton down the stretch. Both played reasonably well in their first exposure to big league pitching, and Picollo suggested Massey in particular looks as if he’ll get the first crack at the second base job. Nicky Lopez is on hand as a potential second base alternative, while Adalberto Mondesi is controllable for his final season of arbitration but coming off a season mostly lost to an ACL tear. Mondesi looks like a viable non-tender candidate with a projected $3MM salary, but Picollo indicated the club could bring him back as a multi-positional option off the bench.

That leaves third base and right field — where none of Drew Waters, Hunter Dozier, Edward Olivares or Kyle Isbel looks like a slam-dunk everyday player — as areas for a possible upgrade. Picollo noted that an experienced, veteran player would be ideal to help out in a younger clubhouse. Speculatively speaking, Evan Longoria and Justin Turner, each of whom were bought out of club options today, could fit the bill as third base/designated hitter options. In the corner outfield, players like Mitch Haniger, Adam Duvall, Andrew McCutchen and former Royal Wil Myers are available. Haniger would be the costliest of that group, while the latter trio are likely all available on one-year deals.

On the matter of payroll, Picollo tells Rogers next year’s player spending is likely to be similar to 2022 levels. Kansas City opened this year with a payroll around $95MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster Recourse projects their 2023 spending at just under $77MM, seemingly leaving some room for Picollo and his staff to augment the roster. Nevertheless, the GM tells Rogers they could consider moving some players off the big league club to free up spending capacity.

“We’re operating right now near capacity with what we want to spend, but that’s where we need to be open-minded in how we can manage and free up some money to change the look of the team a little bit,” Picollo said. “[Owner John Sherman] has told me, ‘Let’s understand where we are as a team right now, and when the time is right for us to add to the payroll, we’ll do that.’ It’s going to ebb and flow a little bit, but with where we’re at as a team right now, adding an extra $20MM isn’t going to put us at the top. There are other things we need to take care of first before we make that push with the payroll.”

Aside from Mondesi and Taylor, that probably leaves starter Brad Keller ($7MM projected salary) and relievers Scott Barlow ($4.9MM projection) and Amir Garrett ($2.6MM projection) as candidates to change uniforms. Keller and Garrett could be non-tender candidates after tough years, but Barlow would be an in-demand entrant to the reliever trade market if Kansas City shopped him. Controllable through 2024, the right-hander is coming off 74 1/3 innings of 2.18 ERA ball with a 26.6% strikeout rate. Barlow has quietly been one of the game’s best relievers two years running, and dealing him could free up K.C. to address a rather thin starting rotation and/or land the righty bat they’re seeking. Picollo didn’t say dealing Barlow was under consideration this offseason, to be clear, but the closer did draw trade interest at this past summer’s deadline.

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