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Mitch Haniger

Giants Sign Mitch Haniger To Three-Year Deal

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The Giants have added one of their desired outfielders, announcing a three-year contract with Mitch Haniger. It’s reportedly a $43.5MM guarantee, and the deal allows him to opt out after two seasons. Haniger is represented by Apex Baseball.

A Mountain View native, Haniger returns to Northern California during his first trip to free agency. He’ll receive a $6MM signing bonus up-front, followed by a $5MM salary in 2023 and $17MM in 2024. At that point, he’ll have to decide whether to bypass the final season and $15.5MM remaining on the deal. Haniger would also receive a $1MM assignment bonus if traded.

While this isn’t the outfield splash San Francisco fans have been urgently awaiting, there’s no question Haniger’s an upgrade to a lineup that was middle-of-the-pack in 2022. He’s been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons with the Mariners, flashing middle-of-the-order potential at his best. Haniger has topped a .490 slugging mark in three separate campaigns, twice surpassing 25 home runs.

Earlier in his career, the Cal Poly product paired that with strong on-base marks. He reached base at a .366 clip during a 2018 season that arguably stands as his best to date, when he posted a .285/.366/.493 line over 683 plate appearances. That showing earned him an All-Star nod and an 11th-place finish in AL MVP balloting.

Injuries prevented Haniger from following up with another full season. He was off to a slower start in 2019, carrying a .220/.314/.463 line into the first week of June. An unfortunately-placed foul ball resulted in a ruptured testicle which required season-ending surgery, and the health concerns carried into 2020. He underwent core surgery over the 2019-20 offseason and ended up missing the entirety of the abbreviated season. The series of brutal health luck cost him more than 18 months of action, but he returned with an excellent 2021 campaign.

Haniger logged his most extensive workload to date that year, tallying 691 plate appearances over 157 contests. He launched a personal-best 37 homers, although his .253 batting average and .318 on-base percentage were closer to league average marks. That kind of power production in one of the sport’s more pitcher-friendly home venues made him 21 percentage points better than average offensively, by measure of wRC+, and he landed some down-ballot MVP votes for the second time.

This past season again saw Haniger battle injury concerns. A high ankle sprain cost him a few months and he managed just a .246/.308/.429 line in 57 games. That was a disappointing platform season to be sure, but it doesn’t seem to have seriously changed the Giants’ projection of his long-term outlook. Haniger’s batted ball data in that limited look remained strong, as he posted a career-best 91.9 MPH average exit velocity and 47.2% hard contact rate. Over the past two seasons, he owns a .251/.316/.470 line.

In addition to that power-oriented offensive profile, Haniger offers decent value on the other side of the ball. He’s not an option in center field, but he generally rates well in right field. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as 21 runs above average in more than 3800 career innings of corner outfield work. Both DRS and Statcast rated him below-average in 2021, but he posted slightly better than par marks in both 2019 and 2022. Haniger’s not likely to win any Gold Gloves, particularly since he’s now headed into his age-32 season. Yet even competent defense would be a major boost for a San Francisco team whose outfielders rated 22 runs below average in 2022 in Statcast’s estimation.

Seattle elected not to issue Haniger a qualifying offer, so the Giants won’t forfeit any draft compensation to bring him aboard. The M’s will not receive any compensation for his departure. With Haniger walking in free agency and Jesse Winker dealt to Milwaukee, Seattle’s likely to continue exploring the market for outfielders to pair with Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández.

The Giants surely aren’t done in the outfield themselves. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters yesterday the team hoped to bring in two outfielders to join Mike Yastrzemski and Joc Pederson, who’d presumably be pushed into a designated hitter role if that transpired. There’s no secret who the top target is. The Giants are one of the top suitors for Aaron Judge, and they’ve reportedly offered him a deal in the $360MM range. Whether the defending AL MVP will leave the Yankees remains to be seen, but the Haniger signing surely doesn’t impact San Francisco’s pursuit at the top of the market.

Haniger’s deal narrowly tops MLBTR’s prediction of three years and $39MM at the start of the offseason. It shouldn’t have a huge impact on the Giants financial breathing room, as it only brings their 2023 payroll to around $143MM. The deal’s $14.5MM luxury tax hit puts their CBT ledger around $156MM, per Roster Resource. That’s nowhere close to the $233MM base tax threshold, nor is their actual spending near the $200MM range the Giants have reached in prior years. They’re sure to make more impactful additions in the coming weeks and months, but Haniger marks their first major step in bolstering their lineup as they try to track down the Dodgers and Padres in a competitive NL West.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Giants and Haniger had agreed to a three-year, $43.5MM deal. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was first to report the deal contained a post-2024 opt-out clause. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the specific financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Mitch Haniger’s Market

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Next week’s Winter Meetings are expected to open the floodgates for some hot stove activity, and among the free agents drawing substantial interest leading up to those meetings is longtime Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger. The 31-year-old (32 next month) has a “robust” market, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, and colleague Buster Olney tweets that there’s a growing belief he’ll be able to secure a three-year contract — perhaps in the vicinity of $15MM per year.

Haniger has, to this point in the offseason, been linked to each of the Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Rangers and the Mariners, who are open to adding another outfielder even after acquiring Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays last month. The Halos’ interest, it should be noted, was reported prior to their acquisition of Hunter Renfroe. It seems likely that move probably put an end to their pursuit of Haniger; the Angels also have Mike Trout and Taylor Ward locked into outfield spots and Shohei Ohtani at DH, of course.

Even presuming the Angels are out of the running, that’d leave at least five teams — and quite likely a few more — in the mix for Haniger, who missed substantial time this season due to a high ankle sprain but has generally been an above-average to excellent hitter when healthy enough to take the field. Dating back to 2017, Haniger boasts a .263/.337/.480 batting line — 24% better than league average by measure of wRC+, which weights for his pitcher-friendly home park. Haniger belted 39 home runs in a season as recently as 2021 and is one of the few outfielders on this offseason’s market who can be viewed as a viable 30-homer threat.

Of course, the knock on Haniger has been his ability to remain on the field — or rather, his lack thereof. Haniger’s 2019 season was cut short when he sustained a ruptured testicle after a poorly placed foul ball off his own bat. Just two months later, while rehabbing from the subsequent surgery, Haniger experienced back discomfort and learned that he’d torn an adductor muscle off the bone. The fallout from that second injury snowballed and ultimately saw Haniger require core muscle/hernia surgery and a microdiscectomy operation.

It was one of the more bizarre and also fluky sequences of injuries for any player in recent memory, but the end result was still a 22-month absence from the playing field for Haniger. He returned with that aforementioned 39-homer campaign, however, and has posted a combined .251/.316/.47o slash with 50 homers in 938 trips to the plate since coming back from that nightmarish run of health troubles. Haniger’s once-premium defensive ratings dipped in 2021, but he posted positive marks in both Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Outs Above Average (2) in this year’s small sample of 396 innings.

Heading into the offseason, MLBTR ranked Haniger 20th on our Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a three-year contract at an annual rate of $13MM. Olney’s report suggests that Haniger’s market could be reaching if not pushing a bit beyond that level. If interest is indeed ramping up to that extent, it stands to reason that Haniger could be one of many free agents to come off the board during next week’s Winter Meetings or shortly thereafter.

Red Sox Interested In Mitch Haniger

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The Red Sox have expressed interest in free agent outfielder Mitch Haniger, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Boston joins the Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, Angels and incumbent Mariners among the clubs known to have checked in with his representatives.

Haniger is one of a handful of mid-tier corner outfielders available in free agency. The outfield market is topped by Aaron Judge and, after a significant gap, Brandon Nimmo. There’s another drop to the third tier, a mix that includes Andrew Benintendi, Jurickson Profar and bounceback types like Cody Bellinger and Michael Conforto alongside Haniger.

While Haniger isn’t in the same boat as Bellinger or Conforto, he’s also looking to rebound from a relatively down year to match pre-2022 heights. He lost a good chunk of this past season with a high ankle sprain. That kept him to 57 contests and 247 plate appearances, in which he hit .246/.308/.429 with 11 home runs. That’s still above-average offensive production once one accounts for the pitcher-friendly nature of Seattle’s T-Mobile Park, but it marked a somewhat disappointing follow-up to a 2021 campaign that saw him land some down-ballot MVP votes. Haniger connected on 39 homers with a .253/.318/.485 line over 157 games that year.

Various injuries have nagged the Cal Poly product throughout his MLB tenure, and he’s only twice exceeded 100 games in a season. When healthy, however, he’s typically provided a strong source of power from the righty batter’s box. Haniger owns a .244/.315/.469 line dating back to the start of 2019, and he’s mashed opposing left-handed pitchers to the tune of a .274/.355/.536 showing. His production against same-handed arms is closer to average, but he’s certainly playable against pitchers of either handedness. He typically rates as a solid defender in the corner outfield but isn’t an option for work in center.

The Red Sox have a fairly clear use for corner outfield help. Jarren Duran hasn’t performed at the major league level the way many had expected after he broke out as a prospect. He’s now 26 years old and owns a career .219/.269/.354 line at the MLB level. Duran hasn’t earned much consistent work against big league pitching and a win-now Boston club would be hard-pressed to rely on him for an everyday role. Alex Verdugo has played well at times but posted overall numbers around league average for the past two seasons. Haniger would be an upgrade on either player, and Boston also has an uncertain DH mix with the free agency of J.D. Martinez.

Mariners Open To Adding Another Outfielder

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The Mariners have already taken steps to reshuffle their outfield in the offseason’s early going. They landed two-time Silver Slugger award winner Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays for high-leverage reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko, then shipped out former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis for catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel.

More changes could be on the horizon, as president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto informed reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) the team was open to bringing in another outfielder. The Seattle baseball ops leader unsurprisingly didn’t tip his hand as to specific targets but suggested the club was content to wait things out and identify the right fit.

“We do have more than one target,” Dipoto told reporters. “There are a handful of players that fit us that we feel good about especially as it pertains to outfielders. We feel like there’s still a market that is more robust. And if we’re just patient, we’re going to find the player that suits our roster the best.”

That doesn’t sound like a declaration the M’s are planning a run at top free agent Aaron Judge, and defending Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez reduces the urgency to go after center fielder Brandon Nimmo. The Mariners could theoretically pursue Nimmo with an eye towards pushing him to the corner opposite Hernández, but there are plenty of other teams with direct needs in center field. With the bidding for the former Met likely to push over nine figures (and cost the signing team a draft choice), the next tier down seems more plausible for Dipoto and his staff.

Among that group is Mitch Haniger, who’s a free agent after six seasons in Seattle. The M’s opted not to tag with him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, clearly unwilling to commit him a salary approaching $20MM for next year. A multi-year deal at a lower annual term still seems a possibility, and general manager Justin Hollander told Divish and others the club remains in contact with Haniger’s representatives at Apex Baseball.

Other free agent possibilities include Andrew Benintendi, Jurickson Profar, Cody Bellinger and Washington native Michael Conforto, who’s looking to reestablish himself as a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter after a season lost to shoulder surgery. Bellinger and Conforto figure to land shorter-term, bounceback deals while Benintendi and Profar are virtually certain to land multi-year commitments. Dipoto and his staff are among the most aggressive in scouring the trade market as well, and a number of corner bats could plausibly be discussed. Anthony Santander, Alex Verdugo, Max Kepler and Jake McCarthy are among the players who’ve been mentioned as at least speculative trade candidates this offseason. Bryan Reynolds and Randy Arozarena are less likely to move — particularly Reynolds, whom the Pirates have been reluctant to deal for years — but are sure to draw calls from other teams based on their multiple seasons of arbitration control and consistently strong performances.

The Mariners are firmly in win-now mode after a second straight 90-win season that snapped their 21-year playoff drought. Dipoto, Hollander and company have been and will continue to be aggressive in building around their excellent young core, but it’s worth noting they’re not devoid of in-house options who could play their way into a regular role alongside Hernández and Rodríguez.

Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell haven’t found much success at the MLB level, but they’re each former top prospects who are still in their mid-20’s and coming off quality performances in Triple-A. Dipoto name-checked both players, as well as prospect Cade Marlowe, as internal candidates to take the next step. The M’s could entertain dealing Kelenic or Trammell for a lower-upside but more stable veteran bat as well, and Divish reports Seattle “shopped Kelenic extensively” at last summer’s trade deadline.

There’s also the presence of Jesse Winker, who was acquired last spring in the deal that saw Seattle assume the final three years of the Eugenio Suárez contract. Winker was the headliner of the trade from the M’s perspective, but Suárez surprisingly outperformed him in their first season in the Pacific Northwest. Under contract for $8.25MM in his final year of club control, Winker won’t have immense trade appeal coming off a .219/.344/.344 showing.

The M’s could elect to hold him and hope for better results, but they’ve reportedly floated his name early this offseason. Winker played dreadful defense in left field, and Divish has previously suggested Winker’s lack of improvement on that side of the ball played a role in him falling into some disfavor in the Seattle clubhouse. At his best, the left-handed hitter has shown he’s capable of impact offensive production against righty pitching, but the front office will have to decide whether pairing an outside addition with a change of scenery for Winker is a better fit heading into 2023.

Mitch Haniger Drawing Interest From Several Teams

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Nov. 21: Both the Dodgers and Angels have also expressed interest in Haniger, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.  For the Dodgers, who non-tendered Cody Bellinger and played utilityman Chris Taylor as their most frequent left fielder in 2022, Haniger could split time between left field and designated hitter (likely pushing Taylor to the infield, where Trea Turner could potentially depart).

Over in Anaheim, Haniger would likely supplant former top prospect Jo Adell, who’s yet to establish himself as a big league regular in parts of three seasons (161 games, 557 plate appearances).

Nov. 20: Though a high ankle sprain and a two-week stint on the COVID-related injured list limited Mitch Haniger to only 58 games last season, the outfielder is drawing a lot of attention on the free agent market.  According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Giants and Rangers are two of the clubs looking at the former All-Star.

Haniger hit .246/.308/.429 with 11 homers over 247 plate appearances in 2022, which translated to a solid 113 wRC+.  He hit for a lot (47.2%) of hard contact, and considering how teams increasingly used the shift to limit Haniger’s numbers over the last two seasons, the changing shift rules for 2023 might lead to Haniger better translating those hard-hit balls into base hits.

Due to a ruptured testicle and a torn adductor muscle, Haniger played in just 63 games in 2019 and he missed the 2020 season entirely.  Returning for a full season in 2021, Haniger hit .253/.318/.485 with 39 homers in 691 PA — pretty close to the production the outfielder delivered in his first two seasons with the Mariners in 2017-18.

Between this health history, his lack of a real platform season, and his age (32 in December), Haniger faces an interesting trip in free agency.  Despite all the drawbacks, MLBTR still projected him for a three-year, $39MM deal based on how well Haniger has performed when healthy.  It is possible Haniger might pursue a deal with an opt-out clause after the first season, or perhaps just a straight one-year deal entirely so he can re-enter the market next winter on the heels of what he hopes will be a healthier and more productive 2023 season.  Or, it wouldn’t at all be surprising if Haniger wanted to lock in a multi-year commitment now, given how injuries have already sidetracked his career on multiple occasions.

Beyond just his ability at the plate, Haniger has also generally displayed above-average glovework in right field.  That would make him a particularly good fit with a defensively-conscious team like the Giants, and his right-handed bat would balance out a lefty-heavy outfield mix of Joc Pederson, LaMonte Wade Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, and Luis Gonzalez.  If San Francisco did sign Haniger, the Giants might then dangle one of their other outfielders in trade talks, or perhaps just use Wade more frequently at first base.

The Rangers, of course, are very familiar with Haniger after seeing him as an opponent for so many years in the AL West.  Texas also has a need in the outfield, with Adolis Garcia the only real lock for everyday playing time and Leody Taveras perhaps also favored for regular work in center field.  Haniger could slide into the right field mix and put Garcia in left field, and Haniger could also get some DH at-bats when Brad Miller takes a seat against left-handed pitching.

The Giants and Rangers are expected to be two of the offseason’s most aggressive teams, with San Francisco looking to bounce back after a disappointing 81-81 season and Texas trying to get back to winning baseball after six straight years under the .500 mark.  Both clubs have money to spend, and it’s probably worth noting that Haniger might be a backup plan to Aaron Judge in San Francisco, given how the Giants have been so frequently tied to the Bay Area native on the rumor mill.  If Judge’s asking price gets too high for the Giants’ liking, they could perhaps pursue an alternate route of signing Haniger for right field and then splurging on another top free agent (like one of the major shortstops, or an ace pitcher).  The Rangers are expected to be focusing much of their winter efforts on rotation upgrades, but bolstering the lineup is also on the to-do list.

Mariners Won’t Extend Qualifying Offer To Mitch Haniger

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The Mariners aren’t going to extend a $19.65MM qualifying offer to outfielder Mitch Haniger, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Jon Morosi of MLB Network had earlier reported that Haniger was unlikely to get a QO.

Haniger has been an interesting borderline QO candidate since he’s been a consistently excellent hitter for years but has struggled to stay healthy for extended stretches. Since coming over from the Diamondbacks in a trade prior to the 2017 season, Haniger has played in five seasons for the Mariners, putting up a wRC+ above 100 in each of them.

He was relatively healthy in 2017, getting into 96 games that year, followed by 157 in 2018. However, he was limited to just 63 contests in 2019 and then missed the 2020 campaign entirely. In 2021, he had a tremendous return, getting into 157 games, hitting 39 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .253/.318/.485 and a 121 wRC+. Unfortunately, the injury bug came for him again in 2022, with Haniger making multiple trips to the IL due to ankle sprains. He was still good when on the field, as he hit .246/.308/.429 for a wRC+ of 113. However, he did that in only 57 games on the year.

That is the story of Haniger at this point. He’s always a good producer when he steps up to the plate, it’s just hard to know how often he’ll be doing it. Extending the qualifying offer would come with risk, since those injuries have helped suppress his arbitration earnings. Haniger gradually pushed his salary up throughout the arb process, getting to $7.75MM here in 2022. If he suddenly had the chance to play for $19.65MM, it would likely be difficult for him to turn it down.

The Mariners are currently projected by Roster Resource to have a 2023 payroll of $132MM. Suddenly adding that $19.65MM figure into the mix would get them pretty close to their franchise record of $158MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Haniger could certainly be worth that investment but another injury-marred campaign could hamper the team’s ability to continue competing going forward.

It’s a high-risk, high-reward bet that it seems the Mariners have decided not to make. That means Haniger will now head to the open market to see how other teams value him. Since Haniger’s future contributions are difficult to gauge, it’s possible there will be wide variance in how different teams evaluate him. However, for teams looking to steer clear of QO’d free agents in order to avoid forfeiting draft picks, Haniger could certainly pique their interest.

He will be one of the more interesting names available in the corner outfield market this winter. Aaron Judge is the obvious headliner but the next tier with feature Haniger alongside names like Andrew Benintendi, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Mitch Haniger Interested In Returning To Seattle

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Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports that outfielder Mitch Haniger is hoping to return to the Mariners in 2023. Haniger, 32, is a pending free agent following a season where he slashed .246/.308/.429 in just 57 games as he was limited by ankle and back injuries throughout the year. The Mariners, for their part, have been effusive in their praise of Haniger, but have not publicly committed one way or the other regarding a possible reunion.

Divish opines that Seattle may extend Haniger a qualifying offer, and notes that Haniger would likely accept one if offered. The Mariners tagging Haniger with a QO would register as a surprise given his age, extensive injury history, and the depressed market that low-OBP, power-hitting corner outfielders like Haniger have found in free agency in recent years. Furthermore, Seattle is loaded on talent in the outfield, with Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell, and Jesse Winker among the options already under team control for 2023 to man the outfield alongside superstar Julio Rodriguez. With a clear hole at second base and high dollar contracts allotted to the likes of Robbie Ray and Luis Castillo, it’s possible that re-signing Haniger may not be the best use of Seattle’s resources this offseason.

On the other hand, Haniger is a beloved team leader who has been with the Mariners for six seasons, which makes him the longest-tenured player in a clubhouse that has frequently undergone roster churn in recent years. Furthermore, he’s been a reliable contributor offensively whenever he’s been on the field, having posted above-average seasons by OPS+ every season he’s played following his rookie 2016 season, when he played just 36 games. While the Mariners certainly have a plethora of options in the outfield entering next season, none of them (Rodriguez aside) come with Haniger’s track record of productivity. Winker is coming off a down season, Kelenic has struggled in the majors despite his prospect pedigree, Lewis has played just 54 games in the majors since his 2020 Rookie of the Year campaign and badly struggled when he was facing major league pitching in 2022, and Trammell may be better suited as a bench bat than an every day player.

Given all this, a reunion with Haniger could make sense for Seattle, though perhaps not at the level a $19.65MM QO would require. Divish suggests a multiyear deal in the $10-12MM AAV range could make sense, and that seems more plausible, though Haniger may have to resort to a shorter term deal given his injury-marred season in 2022.

Dipoto: Mariners To Pursue Shortstops Willing To Play Second Base

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There is plenty of cause for optimism in Seattle. The Mariners finished with a 90-72 record, their best since 2003. They delivered one of the best comeback wins in postseason history on their way to knocking off the Blue Jays in the wild card series. Down the stretch, the club locked up budding presumptive AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez through 2034 and extended two-time All Star starting pitcher Luis Castillo through 2028.

Now, on the heels of a thrilling season, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has indicated that he’s open to making big moves in order to improve what is already a playoff-caliber team.

At the M’s end-of-season media session on Wednesday, Dipoto said that his “great preference” this offseason “would be to land a shortstop that would like to play second base” (relayed by Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). Dipoto is likely referring to any of the four “big name shortstops” who project to be free agents this offseason: Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, and Trea Turner. Each of these four would instantly improve Seattle’s offense, which ranked in the bottom half of all of baseball. All four of the big name shortstops will require multi-year pacts with significant annuals.

The Mariners project to have the payroll capacity to splurge on a top-of-the-market shortstop, should they choose to. In 2022, Seattle ranked 22nd in MLB with an Opening Day player payroll just shy of $104MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 2022’s figure is significantly lower than some of the Mariners’ recent seasons, during which Seattle was generally less competitive. From 2016 to 2019, the Mariners averaged total payrolls of roughly $150MM, ranking as high as 11th league-wide.

The M’s currently have around $91MM worth of payroll commitments for 2023, per Roster Resource. Though that number will increase as a result of arbitration, it seems likely that Seattle would have the fiscal capacity to sign one of the big four shortstops, even if they attempt to bring back Mitch Haniger, who will be a free agent this offseason as well.

The major caveat in Seattle’s pursuit of a big-name free agent shortstop will be whether or not any of them will accept a move to second base. Dipoto reaffirmed his commitment to J.P. Crawford as the Mariners’ shortstop. He told the media that Crawford, age 27, will “line up for us Opening Day at shortstop and the goal is to find someone to put around him.” Dipoto continued on to state plainly that the Mariners signed Crawford to be a shortstop and that “that’s what we intend to do.”

One could argue the cleanest fit of the four aforementioned shortstops would be Turner, who is the only one of the four to appear in Major League games as a second baseman. Turner was a full-time second baseman as recently as the second half of 2021, when he transitioned to the right side of the diamond so that the Dodgers could accommodate both Corey Seager and Turner after Los Angeles acquired him from the Nationals.

None of Correa, Bogaerts or Swanson has played on the right side of the infield in their careers, although they all have extended experience at the infield’s most demanding position. Trevor Story had also never previously played the keystone, but he agreed to move over in deference to Bogaerts upon signing with the Red Sox last offseason. Whether any of the big four shortstops this time would do so while letting Crawford keep shortstop isn’t presently known, but Dipoto and his staff seem likely to inquire with everyone in that group.

Haniger, meanwhile, will hit free agency after spending the past five seasons in Seattle. M’s general manger Justin Hollander was effusive in his praise for the 31-year-old outfielder and said the organization will remain in contact with his representatives at Apex Baseball (via Divish). At the same time, he noted that Haniger “wants to gauge what else is out there” on the open market during his first trip to free agency.

It’s not the best platform season for Haniger, who missed a couple months with a high ankle sprain. He ultimately appeared in 57 games and hit .246/.308/.429 with 11 homers over 247 plate appearances. That’s above-average offense but a step back from his 39-homer, .253/.318/.485 campaign in 2021. Haniger is eligible for a $19.65MM qualifying offer, but the relative down platform year and the M’s stockpile of controllable outfielders make it seem likely they’ll allow him to hit free agency unencumbered by a QO.

Mariners Notes: Raleigh, Haniger, Santana, Frazier, Flexen

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After 18 tense innings, the Seattle Mariners finally fell to the Houston Astros yesterday in the American League Division Series, having returned to playoff baseball for the first time since the 2001 season. The Mariners, who had been projected by ESPN to finish the 2022 season a hair over .500 with an 82-80 record, showed that 2021 was no fluke, following up their 90-win 2021 campaign by winning another 90 games en route to a Wild Card berth.

Following the game, backstop Cal Raleigh announced to reports that he had been playing with a broken thumb and a torn ligament in his left hand, per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times. Raleigh had been playing through the thumb injury since early September, but he had not revealed the extent of the injury prior to Saturday’s game. Raleigh announced to reporters that he would see a specialist in the upcoming days to determine a course of action for recovery, per Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times.

The second-year catcher had followed up his rookie campaign with a strong .211/.284/.489 slash line in 2022, hitting 27 home runs in 370 at-bats and finishing the season with the eighth-highest wRC+ among all catchers (121), nestled between Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud. An integral cog to the Mariners’ offense, Raleigh was one of four players (minimum 350 at-bats) that had an OPS above .700. Raleigh followed up his impressing regular season with a strong Wild Card showing against the Blue Jays, going 4-for-8 with a homer and a double, but was quieted by the Astros’ pitching, collecting only 1 hit in 14 at-bats while striking out 5 times.

In the wake of yesterday’s defeat, the Mariners’ front office will turn their heads toward the 2023 season and free agency. Long-time Mariner Mitch Haniger, trade-deadline addition Carlos Santana, and Adam Frazier will all be free agents following the World Series.

Haniger entered the 2022 season looking to follow up on his successful 2021 campaign, .253/.318/.486 in 157 games, and reestablish himself as an everyday player prior to entering free agency after missing part of the 2019 season and the entire 2020 season with various surgeries. The outfielder and Mariners avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $7.75MM contract in early April.

However, Haniger would only make appearances in nine games before suffering a right high ankle sprain that kept him on the injured list from late April to early August. Upon his return, Haniger hit a solid .254/.322/.418 in the final 48 games of the regular season (100 at-bats).

The Mariners’ decision regarding Haniger, who turns 32 in December, will be quite complicated. The Mariners boast a crowded outfield headlined by AL Rookie of the Year favorite Julio Rodriguez, with former top prospect Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Moore, former AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, and Taylor Trammell. Nevertheless, Lewis has struggled to produce at a high level since suffering a right meniscus tear in 2021, and Kelenic and Trammell have both struggled to adjust to Major League pitching.

For his part, Haniger has indicated that he would prefer to remain in Seattle. Following up by saying that he hopes “to be back in a Mariners uniform for sure,” per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com.

Santana, who joined the Mariners from the Royals at the trade deadline, continued to struggle in Seattle, slashing a combined .202/.316/.376 across 131 games. The 36-year-old split his time between DH and first base, accruing 3 Outs Above Average for his work at first. It remains to be seen if the Mariners will opt for a one-player ’old school’ approach at the DH position, or if they will cycle players through the role during the season.

Frazier followed up his All-Star 2021 campaign with a weaker .238/.301/.311 slash line across 156 games in the 2022 season. The veteran, who was dealt to the Padres during the 2021 season, was traded to the Mariners in exchange for reliever Raymond Kerr and outfielder Corey Rosier prior to the start of the 2022 season. Moore, who was previously mentioned as outfield depth, has also manned all four infield positions and could see an increase in infield work if Frazier is not resigned.

Transitioning to the bump, with five quality starters under contract, starter-turned-reliever Chris Flexen’s position with the Mariners will be an interesting story to watch unfold. Flexen began the 2022 season as a starter, pitching to a solid 4.02 ERA in 121 innings before being bumped to the bullpen where he worked to a 1.62 ERA in 16 2/3 innings.

It remains to be seen if the Mariners will opt to keep Flexen in the bullpen, utilize a 6-man rotation, or potentially trade Flexen to improve their offense.

As previously mentioned the Mariners only had 4 players finish with an OPS north of .700 (minimum 350 at-bats). As a team, the Mariners finished with the third-lowest batting average (.230), an average on-base percentage (.315), and an average slugging percentage (.390).

Additionally, if they opt to trade Flexen for offense, the Mariners boast three prospects No. 2 Emerson Hancock, No. 5  Bryce Miller, and No. 7 Taylor Dollard, who have all had strong seasons at Double-A Arkansas.

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