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Cafardo’s Latest: Abreu, Giants, Rox, Pads, Braun, Reds, A’s, O’s

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The Red Sox are “very interested” in White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, which runs contrary to previous reports. The Cardinals are also after Abreu, Cafardo adds, which isn’t surprising for a team that just lost out on Giancarlo Stanton and continues to seek a power bat. Abreu, who will turn 31 in January, slashed .304/.354/.552 with 33 home runs in 675 plate appearances last season. He comes with two years of arbitration eligibility and will earn a lofty sum – a projected $17.9MM – in 2018. The White Sox want “top prospects” for Abreu, per Cafardo.

More from Cafardo, whose latest column previews the Winter Meetings for all 30 clubs:

  • With an obvious need at third base, the Giants are primed to go after the top two free agents at the hot corner – Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier – Cafardo notes. The 29-year-old Moustakas (a California native) figures to reel in a much larger pact than Frazier (32 in February). Moustakas is also a qualifying offer recipient, so signing him would cost the Giants their second- and fifth-highest draft picks in 2018 and $1MM in international bonus pool space.
  • Free agent first baseman Logan Morrison has drawn interest from the Rockies, per Cafardo. Signing Morrison, who MLBTR projects will land a three-year, $36MM payday this offseason, would presumably send Ian Desmond to the outfield full time as Carlos Gonzalez’ replacement. It could also give the Rockies a significant offensive boost, with the 30-year-old Morrison having slashed .246/.353/.516 with a personal-high 38 homers in 2017.
  • The shortstop-needy Padres will pursue the premier player available at the position, Zack Cozart, according to Cafardo. Cozart was one of the best players in the majors last season, pairing his usual excellent defense with uncharacteristically great offense (.297/.385/.548 with 24 homers in 507 PAs), but the longtime Red isn’t a free agent at a time when many teams are seeking a shortstop, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explained. That could negatively affect his market, then, though MLBTR still forecasts a respectable contract (three years, $42MM) for the 32-year-old.
  • The Brewers would consider proposals for left fielder Ryan Braun, Cafardo suggests. Milwaukee has no shortage of outfielders, which could open the door for a Braun trade, but moving him would be challenging. The 34-year-old posted one of his worst seasons in 2017, thanks in part to injuries, and still has $57MM coming his way (including a $4MM buyout in 2021). He also has full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player.
  • Along with the previously reported Raisel Iglesias, the Reds are “open to offers” for left fielder Adam Duvall, Cafardo relays. Duvall, 29, would provide cheap power to a team in need of it – he’s not eligible for arbitration until next winter and is fresh off his second 30-home run season in a row (though he hit an underwhelming .249/.301/.480 in 2017).
  • The Athletics expected to retain infielder Jed Lowrie as of October, but now they’d “certainly be willing” to trade him, Cafardo reports. Lowrie will enter his age-34 campaign in 2018, in which he’ll earn a very reasonable $6MM, after turning in one of the healthiest and best years of his career last season.
  • Orioles reliever Mychal Givens will be in “great demand” at the meetings, Cafardo writes. The 27-year-old is coming off his second terrific full season in a row and is under control for the next four years, including a pre-arb season in 2018. For those reasons, the Orioles may decide to keep the right-hander.

Free Agent Profile: Mike Moustakas

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The Moose is loose on the free agent market, as Mike Moustakas looks to convert his big power year into a pricey multi-year contract.

Strengths/Pros

After playing in only 27 games in 2016 due to a torn right ACL, Moustakas rebounded to earn AL Comeback Player Of The Year honors after batting .272/.314/.521 with 38 homers over 598 plate appearances.  He outhomered every full-time third baseman in baseball last season, and only seven players overall hit more than Moustakas’ 38 dingers.  Between this performance, his breakout 2015 campaign, and even his abbreviated 2016 numbers, Moustakas has been a solidly above-average hitter over his last 1325 PA, creating 18% more (hypothetical) runs than the average hitter since the start of the 2015 season.

Mike MoustakasMoustakas’ 38 homers set a new Royals single-season record, breaking the surprisingly long-lasting old mark of 36 set by Steve Balboni back in 1985.  Needless to say, Kauffman Stadium isn’t friendly to home run hitters, making Moustakas’ feat all the more impressive.  Since much of his damage came away from Kansas City last year (.284/.326/.582 with 24 homers in 310 away-game plate appearances), it could be argued that Moustakas would be even more dangerous playing his home games in a less-spacious ballpark.

Prior to 2017, Moustakas had been a solid defender at third base, with the UZR/150 metric providing more consistently positive reviews about his glovework than the Defensive Runs Saved metric.

Moustakas just turned 29 in September, making him younger than most of the other top free agent batters.  Going by the last few seasons, he’s reaching the open market right in the midst of his hitting prime, making him a safer bet for a long-term deal than older players who may have more overt question marks about possible decline.

Weaknesses/Cons

Moustakas’ 55.6% swing rate was topped by only six qualified hitters last season, and Moustakas’ free-swinging ways resulted in both a career-low 5.7% walk rate and his highest strikeout rate (15.7%) since 2013.  To be fair, that strikeout rate is actually more than respectable given how often Moustakas was swinging away, though it doesn’t seem sustainable given his only-okay career contact rates.  While Moustakas was a good hitter in both 2015 and 2017, these are also his only two full seasons of above-average production, so any weak points (like an inflated swing rate) tend to stand out as red flags.

With just a .305 career OBP and a track record as a subpar baserunner, Moustakas is reliant on his power to prop up his offensive value.  That’s not a bad skill to have in the recent era of big homer totals and a seemingly livelier baseball, though it does make Moustakas potentially susceptible to a drop in production should MLB explore a re-design of the balls.

As mentioned earlier, Moustakas had been a good defender for much of his career, though he was below-average in both DRS (minus-8) and UZR/150 (-3.6) in 2017.  This is certainly a worry for teams wondering if Moustakas might not be the same after his ACL surgery, though it also isn’t uncommon for players to simply need some time to shake off the rust in the wake of such injuries.  It’s worth noting that the Royals used Moustakas as a designated hitter in 17 games last season in an effort to keep him fresh.

Because Moustakas rejected the Royals’ qualifying offer, a new team would have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some international bonus pool money in order to sign the third baseman.  (You can find a full overview of the new QO signing rules here.)

Personal

Moustakas was born in Los Angeles and played his high school ball at local Chatsworth HS before the Royals selected him with the second overall pick of the 2007 draft.  A highly-regarded prospect throughout his minor league career, Moustakas was a key member of the homegrown core of talent that came up together though Kansas City’s farm system and helped deliver the Royals a World Series title in 2015.

After over a decade with the franchise, Moustakas has naturally created strong bonds with the organization and within the Kansas City community, and is well-regarded as a teammate and clubhouse leader.  Moustakas and wife Stephanie married in 2014 and they welcomed their first daughter in August 2016.

Market

MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently made the argument that Todd Frazier, not Moustakas, may be the best third baseman on the market this winter, though since Moustakas is over two and a half years younger, he stands out as the more logical choice for a team looking for a long-term answer at the hot corner.

Moustakas’ relative youth might also make him attractive to a team that may not be planning to contend in 2018, but wants to lock down third base in preparation for a run in 2019 and beyond.  Teams like the Phillies or Braves could fit this description if they respectively decide against going with Maikel Franco or waiting for prospect Austin Riley, though both teams seem like longshot candidates for Moustakas’ services.  You can similarly squint and see how Moustakas could fit with the Red Sox, Indians, or Mets, though the latter two teams probably won’t have the payroll room and Boston likely wants to give Rafael Devers a longer look at third base before considering him as a first baseman.

The Giants and Cardinals are both currently tied up pursuing Giancarlo Stanton, though both teams could certainly use Moustakas’ power, with San Francisco in particular having a glaring hole at third base.  A surprise team like the Orioles (if Manny Machado is moved to shortstop) or Twins (if Miguel Sano can’t handle regular third base duties after leg surgery) could also emerge.  The Angels are currently focused on second basemen and plan to use Luis Valbuena in a third base platoon, so a return to his hometown doesn’t seem likely for Moustakas — unless the Halos miss out on Shohei Ohtani and thus change their DH/first base plans.

A return to Kansas City also can’t be entirely ruled out, as the Royals have some interest in re-signing at least one of Moustakas or Eric Hosmer.  Conversely, the Royals also seem on the brink of a rebuild, so they could be better served in letting that duo (and Lorenzo Cain) leave in free agency and then collecting the draft picks due to them since Moustakas, Hosmer, and Cain all rejected qualifying offers.

Expected Contract

MLBTR ranked Moustakas sixth on our list of the offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents, with a predicted contract of five years and $85MM.  That still seems like a reasonable prediction, even if the Stanton/Ohtani chases have been holding up the market for big-ticket free agents and an increased number of front offices are willing to play the waiting game.  Moustakas is represented by Scott Boras, who is no stranger himself to keeping his clients available until an acceptably large contract can be found.  Moustakas looks to be one of the prime beneficiaries once the Stanton and Ohtani markets are resolved, particularly given this winter’s thin third base market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

All 9 Recipients Reject Qualifying Offer

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THURSDAY: Officially, all nine players have rejected their qualifying offers and become free agents, the MLBPA has announced (h/t Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, on Twitter).

MONDAY: All nine of the free agents that received a one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offer will reject that offer in favor of free agency, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports writes. Each of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Greg Holland and Carlos Santana will turn down that one-year opportunity in search of a multi-year pact in free agency.

In doing so, that group of nine will also subject themselves to draft-pick compensation and position their former clubs to recoup some value in next year’s amateur draft should they sign elsewhere. Last offseason’s new collective bargaining agreement altered the specifics of that compensation, tying the draft picks received and surrendered largely to the luxury tax threshold, revenue sharing and the size of the contract signed by the free agent in question.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained which draft picks each of the six teams that issued a qualifying offer would receive, should their free agents sign elsewhere, as well as which picks all 30 teams would be required to surrender if they are to sign a qualified free agent. Prior to that, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk provided a more comprehensive and in-depth overview of the new QO system, for those that are unfamiliar or would like a refresher on the finer details.

It’s been reported for quite some time that Kansas City will make a strong effort to retain Hosmer. Heyman added over the weekend that the Royals will also push to keep Moustakas but feel that Cain is almost certain to land elsewhere on the open market. The Rockies are known to have interest in re-upping with Holland on a multi-year deal, and Heyman notes within today’s column that the Rays “understand [Cobb] is out of their reach financially” and will sign elsewhere. He also adds that Davis seems to be likelier than Arrieta to return to Chicago.

It’s unlikely that there will be any formal announcements just yet. Among the changes to the QO system under the 2017-21 CBA was that QO recipients would have 10 days, rather than seven, to determine whether to accept or reject the offer. The deadline to issue QOs was last Monday, so the recipients still technically have until this coming Thursday to formally declare their intention. But, barring a last-minute freak injury it seems that each of the nine will go the widely expected route and enter free agency in search of the most substantial contracts in their respective careers.

Mets Rumors: Ohtani, Smith, Asdrubal, Bullpen, Free Agency

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The Mets are weighing an earnest pursuit of Japanese star Shohei Ohtani if and when he is posted by the Nippon Ham Fighters, David Lennon and Marc Carig of Newsday report. While the Mets are limited in what they can offer at present, the team could potentially trade for additional pool money. The greater allure than the signing bonus they can offer, though, comes with the endorsement opportunities available to Ohtani by signing with one of the two teams in the nation’s largest market, Carig and Lennon posit. The Mets also have a strong relationship with Ohtani’s agency, CAA, and they could offer Ohtani opportunities to bat not only on the days he’s pitching but occasionally in the outfield. Lennon notes that the Mets should still be considered a long shot, but it’s nonetheless worth noting that another large-market club could be in the mix for his services.

A few more notes out of Queens…

  • Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Mets are indeed interested in Carlos Santana, as FanRag’s Jon Heyman recently suggested, adding that the interest in Santana has a correlation with some executives’ feelings toward prospect Dominic Smith. The former first-round pick made his big league debut late in the 2017 season and didn’t do much to impress, hitting just .198/.262/.395 with a 26.8 percent strikeout rate in 183 plate appearances. Smith is still just 22 years of age, and Puma hardly suggests that the team has completely given up on the young slugger. But, assistant GM John Ricco also suggested to Puma and other reporters that the club could trade from its big league roster if it meant acquiring other big league talent. He also specifically indicated that Wilmer Flores could platoon with Smith, so there’s certainly the possibility that he could yet play a large role for the Mets moving forward.
  • Puma notes within that seem piece that Ricco suggested Asdrubal Cabrera currently factors into the plan as a third baseman. The Mets could shift him to second base if a better option at the hot corner arises, though MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets that the Mets are most likely to add a second base option this offseason with Cabrera penciled in at third base. Puma writes that while the Mets are being open-minded when it comes to the infield, they are not likely to pursue either Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas in free agency.
  • The Mets are “ramping up” to make a play that has previously been uncharacteristic for them, tweets Carig. New York, it seems, is prepared to add a reliever to their bullpen even at the cost of a three- or four-year contract. Alderson has typically eschewed such commitments, but Carig notes that it’s considered a high priority for the team. The Post’s Joel Sherman points out that new manager Mickey Callaway and pitching coach Dave Eiland bring some insight into a group of free-agent relievers. Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw and Boone Logan pitched for Callaway in Cleveland (Smith was also drafted by the Mets), while Eiland was the pitching coach for Mike Minor in Kansas City.
  • Further adding to the notion that the Mets are poised for an active offseason, Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that Ricco joined him on the air tonight and “made it clear” that the Mets are going to be players on the free-agent market. Bowden notes that position players seem likelier than pitchers, though, with center field, first base, second base and third base all potential areas for addition. The Mets were already linked to center fielder Lorenzo Cain earlier this evening.

GM Meetings Notes: The American League Central

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Royals GM Dayton Moore did not strike a particularly optimistic tone yesterday with regard to the the organization’s major free agents, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reports on Twitter. “We’ll see what the market dictates, we’ll stay engaged with our current free agents,” said Moore. “But I’m not sure if it’s at the levels that everyone’s talking about. It may be extra challenging for us.” The Kansas City organization will get a chance to begin figuring out just how much it’ll cost to keep Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas when it sits down today with agent Scott Boras, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports.

  • Moore also discussed the fact that he’ll stay with the Royals after owner David Glass declined to allow him to interview with the Braves, as Dodd further writes. “I simply left that in Mr. Glass’s hands,” said Moore. “If he wanted to grant permission, then that would signal to me that he didn’t want me here. If he denied permission, that would tell me he wants me here.” That’s certainly an interesting perspective. Moore did emphasize, too, that he’s happy both to remain in charge of the Royals’ baseball ops and to put the speculation behind him. He is under contract in Kansas City through the 2020 campaign, Dodd further reports, and it seems as if there’s good cause to expect the relationship to continue for the foreseeable future.
  • Unsurprisingly, GM Rick Hahn suggests the White Sox are open to trading their few established veteran hitters this winter, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes. With the club still “focused on the long-term,” says Hahn, it will entertain offers on first baseman Jose Abreu and outfielder Avisail Garcia. Hahn explained: “At some point, not necessarily this offseason, we have to make the decision: Are we best served by extending them through what we project to be the bulk of our (competitive) window, or are we better off making a move like some of the others we’ve made and trying to reinforce the future with prospects?'” It’ll be interesting to see what kinds of offers are dangled for both players and whether Chicago truly seeks to initiate extension talks to create an alternative path.
  • The Tigers are diving right into talks on several players, GM Al Avila told reporters including Evan Woodberry of MLive.com (via Twitter). Avila said he has already discussed a few of the team’s players with rival organizations, including veteran second baseman Ian Kinsler. Detroit is also preparing to make some difficult 40-man roster decisions, Woodberry reports. Indeed, Avila says the process of whittling the players to protect from the Rule 5 draft has been “excruciating and painful.”
  • The Twins front office duo of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine faces quite a different situation in their second offseason with the franchise, as Phil Miller of the Star Tribune writes. Indeed, the team’s reported interest in some of the best free agent pitching serves to highlight the opportunities and expectations facing the organization this winter.

Crasnick’s Latest: Stanton, Ohtani, JDM, Darvish, Royals, McCutchen

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In this year’s edition of his annual Hot Stove survey (an always-excellent read), ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick surveyed 40 front office execs and scouts from around the league on nine offseason issues as this week’s GM Meetings kick off. Among the topics discussed, at length, are the possibility of a Giancarlo Stanton trade (and his likeliest destination), where Japanese star Shohei Ohtani will land, how much J.D. Martinez can command in free agency, and whether Yu Darvish’s poor World Series showing hampered his free-agent stock. Crasnick also polled the 40 baseball ops/scouting minds on multiple groups of free agents and trade candidates, asking which will provide the most value and which are likeliest to be dealt.

If you follow the offseason even loosely, you’ll want to be sure to read through the entire column, which is packed with quotes and insight from general managers, scouts and other front-office executives on the players in question and their potential landing spots. Some abbreviated highlights…

  • Three quarters of the respondents indicated that they expect Stanton to be traded this offseason, with nearly a third listing the Cardinals as the likeliest landing spot. The Giants were the second-most popular spot, though one scout tells Crasnick he has a difficult time envisioning that match, calling the Giants a “bottom-five farm system.” One respondent who felt Stanton would stay in Miami suggests to Crasnick that the Marlins may be underestimating just how much of the contract they’ll need to pay down.
  • The Yankees and Dodgers split the vote on the surveyed group’s likeliest destinations for Ohtani, with the Rangers not far behind. Several other clubs received a few votes, and four of the 40 respondents suggested that they believed Ohtani would remain with the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2018. There’s still some work to be done with the league, the players’ union and Nippon Professional Baseball before the posting process can begin in earnest. The agreement between MLB and NPB on the current iteration of the posting system expired this offseason.
  • The Red Sox were the overwhelming favorite when it came to the question of Martinez’s next team, though expectations for his contract varied in size. One GM pegged Martinez at around six years and $140MM, Crasnick notes. Some execs felt he’d fall closer to Justin Upton’s $106MM guarantee.
  • Only three of the 40 respondents thought that Darvish’s pair of World Series meltdowns would have a substantial impact on his offseason earning capacity. Crasnick’s piece has plenty of insightful quotes on Darvish — more than any other player — from the scouts that were polled. An AL scout tells Crasnick that 15 years ago, the World Series might’ve hurt Darvish, but in a largely sabermetric environment, his late struggles are a “void blip in the radar.”
  • Crasnick also asked respondents which of the Royals’ big three free agents (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain) would provide the best value on his next deal, which of Carlos Gomez or Carlos Gonzalez had a better chance of reestablishing himself as a star, and which major 2018-19 free agent among Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado is likeliest to be traded this winter. I found it somewhat of a surprise to see Hosmer as the decisive favorite in that Royals question, though many scouts praised his glovework despite poor reviews from defensive metrics. McCutchen, less surprisingly, was deemed likeliest of his trio to go, while Gonzalez topped Gomez handily in their own respective face-off.

Central News & Rumors: Royals, Bucs, Cards, Brewers

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The Royals are holding out hope that they’ll be able to re-sign first baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Mike Moustakas, but they’ve “all but given up” on bringing back center fielder Lorenzo Cain, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports. Hosmer and Moustakas figure to collect two of the largest contracts of the offseason, which could pose a problem for small-market Kansas City, but owner David Glass believes the Royals would stay competitive by re-upping the homegrown duo and doesn’t want to “disappoint” the team’s fan base by letting either go, Heyman relays. Before Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain officially hit the market, each will have to reject $17.4MM qualifying offers from the Royals by Nov. 16. Unsurprisingly, that will happen, according to Heyman.

Here’s the latest from the National League Central:

  • With their control over outfielder Andrew McCutchen and right-hander Gerrit Cole dwindling, the Pirates would be wise to listen to offseason proposals for both players, Buster Olney of ESPN opines. McCutchen, who will make $14.5MM in the final year of his contract in 2018, will “almost certainly” be in another uniform in 2019, writes Olney. Cole, meanwhile, is controllable via arbitration through ’19, and Olney argues that now may be the time to move the Scott Boras client because the Pirates probably won’t be able to extend him. Elsewhere on the Bucs’ roster, Olney points to righty Ivan Nova and lights-out closer Felipe Rivero as speculative trade pieces. Nova’s unspectacular, but he’d garner interest as a capable innings eater who’s due an affordable $9.1MM-plus per annum through next year. Rivero is only entering the first of four arb-eligible years and would likely warrant a massive return for a reliever, leading Olney to conclude that the Pirates should consider dealing him.
  • The Cardinals are interested in upgrading the left side of their infield, perhaps by way of a Josh Donaldson acquisition and/or the addition of a defensively gifted shortstop, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests. This isn’t the first time the Cardinals have been connected to Donaldson, but the Blue Jays are unlikely to trade the soon-to-be 32-year-old in advance of 2018, his final season of team control. The 2015 AL MVP is projected to rake in a $20.7MM arbitration award this offseason.
  • Second baseman Neil Walker is currently a free agent, so the Brewers will have to decide whether to pursue him (or another outsider) or simply stay in-house at the position, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel observes. The Brewers have experienced second base possibilities on hand in Jonathan Villar, Eric Sogard and Hernan Perez, but there may not be an ideal starter in the group. While general manager David Stearns seems to believe the Walker-less Brewers are in good shape at the keystone, he’s keeping his options open. “I do think we have pieces to handle it internally,” Stearns said. “I would be happy coming back with our same position player group, if that’s the way this offseason plays out. At the same time, we’re looking to get better.”

Free Agent Faceoff: Mike Moustakas Vs. Todd Frazier

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Teams scouring the open market for help at the hot corner would likely agree that Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier stand out as the best unsigned third basemen in the majors. This winter’s class of free agents isn’t brimming with established starters at the position, but Moustakas and Frazier are obvious exceptions, having generally served as above-average players throughout their careers. Moustakas, 29, is likely to score a much richer contract than his soon-to-be 32-year-old peer (MLBTR projects a five-year, $85MM deal for Moustakas and a three-year, $33MM pact for Frazier), though the players’ big league performances suggest that shouldn’t be the case.

Both Moustakas and Frazier were part of the same draft class, 2007, a year in which the former went second overall to the Royals and the latter came off the board 32 picks later to the Reds. Unsurprisingly, Moustakas received much more fanfare as a farmhand, ranking among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects three times (he topped out at No. 9 in 2010, while Frazier peaked at No. 43 in 2010). But since the pair debuted in 2011, Frazier has been the more productive player. As a member of three different teams – the Reds, White Sox and Yankees – Frazier has slashed .245/.321/.459 and racked up 21.2 fWAR in 3,766 plate appearances (approximately 3.3 per 600 PAs). Moustakas, a lifetime Royal to this point, has batted a more modest .251/.305/.425 with 12.1 fWAR in 3,318 trips to the plate (2.2 per 600 PAs).

Mike Moustakas

When analyzing Moustakas’ career, it would be unwise to ignore the fact that the lefty-swinger didn’t truly burst on the scene as a hitter until 2015. Teams that bid on him in free agency will expect to acquire the Moustakas they saw from 2015-17, during which he batted .279/.329/.496 across 1,325 PAs, not the 2011-14 version who limped to a .236/.290/.379 line in 1,993 trips. It’s also worth pointing out that missing nearly all of 2016 with a torn ACL took a toll on his statistical output.

Aside from that 27-game season, Moustakas has made between 136 and 149 appearances in each of his five full campaigns. In his most recent showing, Moustakas accumulated 598 PAs and slugged 38 home runs – trumping the previous career high of 22 he set in 2015 – to go with a .249 ISO (a marked improvement over his .174 lifetime figure).

Moustakas established new high-water marks as a power hitter in 2017, but he also walked a career-worst 5.7 percent of the time, thanks in part to a chase rate that climbed from 34.1 percent between 2011-16 to 40.3 percent. All told, he offered at 55.6 percent of pitches – up from 48.2 percent over the previous six years. Neither Moustakas’ more aggressive approach nor his penchant for hitting infield pop-ups (16 percent, tied for 10th worst in the majors) did him any favors in the on-base department. His .314 OBP easily fell below the .330 league average and somewhat offset his prodigious power. Still, his offensive production was a respectable 14 percent better than average, per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He was less effective in the field, with minus-8 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-3.1 Ultimate Zone Rating. In the eyes of those metrics, Moustakas has been a plus defender for the majority of his career, so a bounce back may be in order as he continues to distance himself from his serious knee injury.

Todd Frazier

Frazier, meanwhile, has been a paragon of consistency since his rookie campaign, 2012, the only one of his full seasons in which he appeared in fewer than 147 games. Frazier has been an above-average player every year dating back to then, having notched seasonal fWARs ranging from 2.5 (2016) to 4.8 (2014), and his defensive work has played a role in that. He thrived in the field during a 3.0-fWAR 2017, tallying 10 DRS and a 6.7 UZR. Only once (in 2016) has Frazier logged negative numbers in those categories.

Frazier is better known for his offense than his glove, of course, and he contributed a quality .213/.344/.428 line (108 wRC+) with 27 homers and a .215 ISO in 576 attempts in 2017. As was the case with Moustakas, Frazier hit a boatload of infield flies – a league-worst 18.5 percent, in fact – which helps explain his unsightly batting average. Although Frazier is only a lifetime .245 hitter, the right-hander has never been worse than an average offensive producer in any season, according to wRC+. With 131 homers since 2014, most of Frazier’s offensive value has come from his power, but his patience trended in the right direction last season. Frazier was more selective than usual, with a chase rate of 25 percent (compared to 34 percent from 2011-16) and a swing rate of 40.2 percent (down from 49.2 percent over the prior six seasons), leading to a career-best 14.4 percent walk rate that shattered the previous personal high (9.2) he put up in 2016.

In addition to marketing Frazier’s two-way reliability to third base-needy teams (the Giants, Mets, Braves and Angels, to name a few), his reps at CAA Sports are sure to note that he won’t cost draft pick compensation to sign. That’s not the case with Moustakas, a Scott Boras client who will reject the Royals’ qualifying offer by the Nov. 16 deadline. While Moustakas is a fine player who’s still on the right side of 30, there are legitimate reasons to believe the team that signs Frazier will end up more satisfied with its investment.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 6 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Six different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter.  Assuming the nine players turn down the one-year, $17.4MM offer, here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.

[Related: Offseason Primer: The New Qualifying Offer Rules]

Cubs

The Cubs made qualifying offers to right-handers Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis.  The Cubs were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, regardless of the size of the contracts Arrieta and Davis sign, the Cubs will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.

Cardinals

The Cardinals made a qualifying offer to starter Lance Lynn.  Like the Cubs, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor.  Regardless of the amount Lynn signs for, the Cardinals will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.

Royals

The Royals made qualifying offers to center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas.  The Royals were a revenue sharing recipient.  If any of their three free agents sign for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the Royals get draft pick compensation after the first round.  For any of the three that signs for less than $50MM, the Royals get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B.  MLBTR projects all three players to sign for well over $50MM, so the Royals should have a very favorable draft pool in 2018, potentially adding three picks in the top 35 or so if all three sign elsewhere.

Rays

The Rays made a qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rockies, and Indians.  However, Cobb is a borderline free agent when it comes to a $50MM contract, in our estimation.  The team will be rooting for him to reach that threshold, as the Rays would then net a compensatory pick after the first round.  If Cobb falls shy of that total guarantee, the Rays will receive an extra pick after Comp Round B.

Rockies

The Rockies made a qualifying offer to closer Greg Holland.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Indians.  Holland, too, is a borderline $50MM free agent, though he certainly figures to aim higher than that in the early stages of free agency.  If he reaches $50MM+, the Rox will get a pick after the first round.  If not, they’ll receive a pick after Comp Round B.

Indians

The Indians made a qualifying offer to first baseman Carlos Santana.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Rockies.  Santana is another borderline $50MM free agent in our estimation, but it’s certainly possible he clears that threshold and nets Cleveland a pick after the first round.

So, the Cubs and Cardinals already know where their draft-pick compensation will land if their qualified free agents sign elsewhere: after Competitive Balance Round B, which currently starts with pick No. 76.  The Royals, Rays, Rockies, and Indians will all be rooting for their free agents to sign for at least $50MM, granting them compensation after the first round, which begins with pick No. 31.

9 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today marked the deadline for players to receive one-year qualifying offers at this year’s rate of $17.4MM. Now that the dust has settled, we know that nine players will weigh those decisions for the next ten days.

That falls on the lower end of the spectrum, matching the prior low from 2012 (the first season that the QO system was in operation). On the high side, twenty players received qualifying offers in 2015. But that was also the first year in which any players accepted the one-year offer, which may itself have had an impact on future teams deciding whether to issue it. Last year, after all, there were only ten recipients. At the end of the day, of course, the actual players and teams involved matter most, and that can vary quite a bit from year to year based on a wide variety of factors.

New rules went into effect this winter, so you’ll want to review those to understand how it’ll work this time around. Those rules likely will continue to dampen the use of the QO on the margins, both through the reduction of draft compensation for issuing teams and by the prohibition on multiple QOs for the same player. Of course, it’s worth bearing in mind that every free agent class is different — and that every team situation is as well.

Here are this year’s free agents who were extended a qualifying offer by their teams (in alphabetical order):

Several players that were discussed as QO candidates ended up being bypassed — which, generally, is a good thing for their earning power in free agency. Zack Cozart of the Reds (post), Andrew Cashner of the Rangers (post), and Logan Morrison of the Rays (post) were among the closest calls that went against the offer.

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