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Mike Minor

Athletics Acquire Mike Minor

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2:26pm: Both teams have announced the trade. Texas will also land $133K in international slot compensation in the deal, and it will pay half of Minor’s remaining salary, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets.

1:05pm: Texas will receive outfielder Marcus Smith and third baseman Dustin Harris, Levi Weaver of The Athletic reports. Both players were 2019 draft picks for the Athletics, who took Smith in the third round and Harris in the 11th. MLB.com ranked Smith as the A’s 22nd-best prospect before the trade.

11:32am: The Athletics have acquired left-hander Mike Minor from the division-rival Rangers for two players to be named later, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports. The two players are prospects, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

The 32-year-old Minor is only a season removed from serving as one of the American League’s most effective starters (he finished eighth in Cy Young voting), but 2020 hasn’t worked out according to plan. Minor has made seven starts this year and managed a dismal 5.60 ERA/4.83 FIP with 8.92 K/9 and 3.31 BB/9 through 35 1/3 innings, all while experiencing a 2 mph drop in average fastball velocity compared to last season. His disappointing production is among the reasons the Rangers are just 12-21 and among the few teams in baseball that look to be completely out of the playoff race.

Now, considering the Rangers’ status as non-contenders, Minor’s prorated $9.83MM salary and his pending free agency, the team’s moving on from him. He wouldn’t have been in line for a qualifying offer because of this year’s poor output, so Texas took what it deemed as the best offer for Minor. We may not know the identities of the players the Rangers are getting for Minor for a while, as only those in teams’ 60-man pools are eligible to be dealt right now.

Meanwhile, the Athletics – owners of the AL’s second-best record (22-12) – are no doubt hoping Minor will return to his previous form in their uniform. He encouraged in his final Rangers start Friday with six shutout innings against the high-powered Dodgers, and will now join an A’s staff that has produced middle-of-the-road results thus far. Jesus Luzardo and Chris Bassitt have logged sub-4.00 ERAs this year; Sean Manaea has registered far better peripherals than run prevention numbers; and Frankie Montas, Mike Fiers and Daniel Mengden have struggled across a combined 15 starts.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blue Jays Interested In Mike Minor, Brian Goodwin

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Having already acquired Taijuan Walker, the Blue Jays continue to look for additional upgrades as they pursue a playoff berth.  Toronto’s targets include Rangers southpaw Mike Minor, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link), as well as Angels outfielder Brian Goodwin, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi reports.

Minor is perhaps the closest of the two names to becoming a reality, as Grant describes the Jays and Rangers as “actively engaged” in negotiations.  Minor would be a pure rental pickup for Toronto since he is a free agent after the season, and he is owed roughly $1.61MM remaining of his prorated $9.5MM salary for the 2020 season.  While Minor has a 10-team no-trade clause in the first two seasons of his three-year, $28MM deal with Texas, Grant reports that the clause is no longer in place for this, the final year of Minor’s contract.

Though Minor tossed six shutout innings against the Dodgers in his most recent start, it hasn’t been a great year overall for the 32-year-old.  Minor has a 5.60 ERA, 2.69 K/BB rate, and 8.9 K/9 over 35 1/3 innings for the Rangers, with some advanced metrics (4.84 FIP, 4.58 xFIP, 4.49 SIERA, .340 xwOBA against a .314 wOBA) painting only a slightly more positive view of his performance.  Still, Minor is only a season removed from a superb year that saw him finish eighth in AL Cy Young Award voting.

Minor has also continued to eat innings, which is no small matter of import for a Blue Jays team that has struggled to get starters deep into games.  Walker, Hyun Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, and Chase Anderson comprise Toronto’s current rotation, with Matt Shoemaker and Nate Pearson both on the injured list.  The Jays could continue to rely on bullpen games or an opener/bulk pitcher combo for that fifth rotation spot until Shoemaker and Pearson return, or they could opt for a more proven starter like Minor to solidify matters.

In terms of what the Jays might give up, Davidi writes that Texas has shown interest in Toronto’s “young catchers” — presumably in reference to Danny Jansen or Reese McGuire, as Davidi notes that dealing either backstop would then require the Blue Jays to add another catcher to fill the void.  The Jays do have an experienced backup option in Caleb Joseph at their alternate training site, and also prospects Riley Adams and Alejandro Kirk within their 60-man player pool, though it may be unlikely that a more prized prospect like Kirk is moved for a rental player.

Goodwin has backed up his impressive 2019 season with another strong showing this year, as the outfielder entered today’s action with a .253/.343/.484 slash line and four home runs over 105 plate appearances.  The 29-year-old Goodwin is controllable through the 2022 season via arbitration, and his ability to play all three outfield positions makes him an even more valuable asset.

Neither Randal Grichuk or Teoscar Hernandez is exactly an ideal defensive fit in center or right field, respectively, so Goodwin could at the very least provide some late-game value as a defensive sub.  Goodwin does perhaps seem somewhat overqualified for such a role, though a more regular job could emerge if (as one industry source suggests to Davidi) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. could be used as a deadline trade chip.  Gurriel was reportedly floated in trade negotiations over the offseason, and his inclusion in trade talks now could open up a lot of possibilities for the Blue Jays at the deadline.

Gurriel has had some injury problems and faced questions about his defensive position and consistency at the plate over his three MLB seasons, though he has settled in as a regular left fielder and has shown more than a few flashes of brilliance as a hitter.  Gurriel has hit .274/.317/.487 with 35 homers over his first 722 Major League plate appearances, and doesn’t turn 27 years old until October.  Signed to a seven-year, $22MM deal out of Cuba in 2016, Gurriel is still locked up through the 2023 season at the very affordable price of $13.4MM from 2021-23.

The Rangers’ New-Look Rotation Has Big-Time Upside

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Historically, pitching has not been a strength of the Texas Rangers. The franchise has consistently found itself sorely lacking true aces; outside of Nolan Ryan, there aren’t really any iconic pitchers that come to mind when you think of the Rangers. Kenny Rogers, anyone?

That trend held true once again last year, with the Rangers posting an overall 5.09 ERA that ranked seventh-worst in baseball. That said, Lance Lynn and Mike Minor anchored the top of the rotation admirably, each garnering Cy Young consideration and holding the staff intact during the hot Texas summer.

But when the 2020 season boots up, Lynn and Minor will have some help, and starting pitching may indeed be a strength for this year’s iteration of the team. GM Jon Daniels and company made a concerted effort in the winter to acquire starting pitchers—and they did so at relatively little cost, meaning that a bit of short-term ambition likely won’t impeach on the franchise’s future plans.

Corey Kluber is the big-name addition, and the two-time Cy Young winner should do plenty to bolster the Rangers’ staff. Even so, the team didn’t mortgage the future to bring him aboard: Kluber is only guaranteed a contract for this year, with a vesting option that could keep him in Texas through 2021. Coming off a season in which he could pitch in just seven games, he was acquired in exchange for Delino DeShields and Emmanuel Clase, a move that was widely praised at the time and looks even worse for Cleveland in light of Clase’s PED suspension.

But the smaller-scale signings of Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, while not deserving of the same attention as the acquisition of a decade-defining pitcher like Kluber, could together have just as great an impact on the Rangers’ success as Kluber. In the offseason, Lyles signed on with a two-year, $16MM deal, while Gibson earned himself a three-year contract worth $28MM. Together, they’ll make $19MM in 2020, just a hair more than Kluber’s salary.

Lyles has been around forever, it seems, breaking in as a young arm with the Astros and Rockies, but it took until his age-28 season for him to put it all together as a starter. After a slow start with the Pirates earned him a trade to Milwaukee, he put up career-best numbers, striking out 146 batters in 141 innings, an unprecedented rate for Lyles.

How come? The simple version is that Lyles began relying less and less on his sinker, a staple in his repertoire throughout the early stages of his career. His sinker usage dropped to a minuscule 1.7% last year while he threw four-seam fastballs 50.2% of the time, more than he ever had before. The curveball also became a more important weapon in his pitch mix.

That isn’t too unlike the formula that Lance Lynn rode to his career-best 2019 season. Just like Lyles, Lynn’s sinker usage hit a career low last year, replaced almost entirely by four-seam fastballs—largely in the upper part of the strike zone. This isn’t unique to the Rangers—the Astros’ unparalleled pitching brilliance hinges on this philosophy—and it’s a trend that has redefined the way we look at pitching in MLB.

It’s an approach that worked for the Rangers last year, Lynn’s first in Texas, and perhaps Daniels is confident that his staff can use it to produce similar results with Lyles and Gibson this year. Sure enough, the sinker has been Gibson’s most-used pitch through his first five years as a big-leaguer. Sound familiar? Granted, Gibson’s four-seamer hasn’t been a great pitch for him, but throwing fewer sinkers could in turn lead to a jump in his slider usage, a high-spin pitch that may be a hidden gem.

Still, pitching at the MLB level is not as simple as flipping a switch and saying, “sinker bad, four-seam good.” That approach can’t be uniformly applied to every pitcher in baseball with the same results; there’s a reason careers have been forged around the sinker. And yet, the proliferation of the high fastball in MLB lends credence to its value, and the Rangers may have pursued the likes of Gibson and Lyles with that style in mind.

But that’s only half the battle; the burden then falls on the coaching staff and players themselves to accept and implement adjustments. It’s why we still play the games when there’s such a wealth of knowledge out there. So we’ll anxiously await the 2020 season to see whether the on-field results look as good as the ideas that underpin them.

Extension Notes: Baez, Minor, Realmuto

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Reports back in November indicated that the Cubs had initiated extension talks with star shortstop Javier Baez, but Baez himself said as recently as mid-February that talks on that front have been “up and down.” Asked about the potential of signing a long-term deal in the wake of this week’s seven-year extension for division rival Christian Yelich, Baez told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times that Yelich’s seven-year, $188.5MM extension “doesn’t have anything to do with mine.” Baez acknowledged that he and the Cubs are still “working on” a long-term deal, though there’s no indication that talks have gained significant momentum.

Cubs president of baseball ops Theo Epstein declined to discuss talks with Baez or any other player in detail, merely indicating that the Cubs have tried to sign several players long term. “It’s not worth talking about,” Epstein said of his team’s extension efforts. “If we can get it done, we will. If we can’t, then we’ll move forward. But players don’t have an obligation to sign.” Baez is earning $10MM in 2020 and will be arbitration-eligible one last time next winter before reaching free agency in the 2021-22 offseason.

Some more notes on potential extensions for high-end players…

  • Mike Minor has previously made his desire to sign an extension with the Rangers known, but the left-hander told Sam Blum of the Dallas Morning News that “nothing’s happened.” The 32-year-old said he’s not the type to “put a hard deadline kind of thing” on talks before immediately contradicting that statement (to an extent) by adding that he doesn’t want to discuss a new contract during the season. Getting a new deal done before Opening Day would be a “best case” scenario, per Minor, who pitched to a 3.59 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.30 HR/9 and a 40 percent ground-ball rate in a career-high 208 1/3 innings with Texas in 2019. Minor is owed a $9.83MM salary in 2020 — the final season of a three-year, $28MM deal signed with Texas prior to the 2018 campaign. Minor figures to be one of the better arms available on next year’s market and was an honorable mention on the first edition of MLBTR’s 2020-21 Free Agent Power Rankings.
  • The Phillies continue to discuss an extension with free-agent-to-be J.T. Realmuto, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. The desire to get a long-term deal worked out isn’t exactly a well-kept secret, as both sides have made their desire to continue the relationship beyond 2020 known. Zolecki reports that talks between the two sides are moving slowly at this point, however. Realmuto for the first time this spring publicly acknowledged that the two sides are indeed talking but wouldn’t specify beyond that, simply stating that there’s “no update” at this time. Realmuto landed second on the first edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, wherein Tim Dierkes observed that the 29-year-old is one more strong season away from being the first free-agent catcher to ever sign a deal worth more than $100MM.

Mike Minor Interested In Discussing Extension With Rangers

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JANUARY 25: The Rangers have interest in keeping Minor but haven’t yet begun contract talks with either the left-hander or any other players, GM Jon Daniels told Sullivan and other reporters.  “We haven’t had any extension discussions at this point. That’s more a February or March topic conversation with some guys we may hit on,” Daniels said.

JANUARY 24: Southpaw Mike Minor has already more than made good on his side of the three-year bargain he struck with the Rangers. With one more season left on that deal, he’s interested in working out a new pact to stay for more.

As Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link) and MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (Twitter link) report, Minor says he would like to hold discussions with the Texas organizations. It doesn’t seem that deep talks (if any) have been held to date, but spring camp is generally prime time for internal dealmaking.

Minor has thus far rewarded the Rangers’ faith. After bouncing back from a two-year layoff in a strong 2017 season with the Royals, he secured a surprising three-year, $28MM deal — a contractual model the Texas club has now followed in two more offseasons. The 32-year-old has handily outperformed that earning level, contributing 365 1/3 innings of 3.84 ERA ball with 8.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.

Unfortunately, the Rangers have mostly struggled despite Minor’s contributions. But that isn’t a drawback so much as a motivating factor for the lefty.

“For sure,” Minor said when asked about his interest in sticking around. “I feel like I’ve endured the worst part of it. I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. I want to be a part of it. I don’t want to jump ship now when it’s going to be good.”

It’ll certainly be interesting to see how talks proceed. The Rangers have spurned trade interest in Minor even through the losing campaigns, presumably holding out hope he’d be a part of the team’s desired 2020 resurgence. There’s little question they value the veteran quite highly.

Still, it stands to reason the team will be wary of committing too much money over too long a term. There are quite a few positives and demerits in Minor’s profile.

For one thing, there’s Minor’s worrisome history of shoulder ailments to consider. But it’s hard to deny he has turned the page after two full seasons. Age is an obvious factor, but Minor is throwing harder than he did in his youth and produces as much spin on his fastball as any pitcher in the game. He’s not a dominating strikeout pitcher by any means but Statcast readings make clear he’s quite proficient at avoiding hard contact.

Winter Meetings Preview: Rangers, Rockies

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In advance of the winter meetings, let’s take a moment to quickly preview a couple teams out west…

  • The Texas Rangers have their sights laser-focused on Anthony Rendon, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Recent additions have more-or-less locked their rotation class, with Kolby Allard, Joe Palumbo and Brock Burke looking like the 5 through 7 options behind Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. Should prices drop on starters like Dallas Keuchel or Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Rangers could add further pitching in the right deal and potentially explore flipping Lynn or Minor, tweets Grant, though that’s less a strategy and more of the “open to anything” ethos employed by most front offices. Otherwise, the group of internal candidates, if expanded, would include Taylor Hearn and Tyler Phillips, plus any vets they are able to grab on minor league deals in the mold of Edinson Volquez (though Volquez himself is more likely ticketed for the pen if he makes the team). The Rangers reportedly offered Zack Wheeler a $100MM contract before he signed with Philadelphia, so the pursestrings have been loosed. For now, however, they’re stuck in traffic waiting to see if the “Adrian Beltre treatment” can sell Rendon on playing the latter half of his career in Arlington. 
  • The Colorado Rockies need for starting pitching is clear, but they are highly unlikely to walk away from the winter meetings with a new arm atop their rotation, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Irrespective of the financial crunch – which is significant and detailed in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook – the history of Coors Field continues to scare away free agent pitchers. Not to mention, the haunted past of big-ticket hurlers signed by past regimes in Colorado is no less an impediment to building through free agency. Denny Neagle, Mike Hampton, and Darryl Kile can all profess their tale of woe, but Kile’s case is particularly damning given the success he enjoyed in St. Louis once freed from Coors. Speculatively speaking, the Rockies aversion/inability to add frontline pitching via free agency could be a factor in their bearish resistance to trading Jon Gray. If internal development is the only path to roster improvement, trading a talent like Gray would be an even greater white-flag move than under most circumstances.

Rangers, Mike Minor Have Mutual Interest In Extension

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Both the Rangers and left-hander Mike Minor are interested in continuing their relationship beyond the end of the 2020 season, when Minor’s current contract expires.  Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that that “preliminary extension talks” have already taken place between the team and Minor’s representatives, though more substantive negotiations are likely to wait until the offseason.

Minor’s future in Arlington was of great speculation in the weeks and months leading up to the trade deadline, as the veteran southpaw drew plenty of interest from teams in need of rotation help.  The Yankees, Twins, and Phillies were just a few of the teams known to be linked to Minor’s trade market, and all of the buzz not only seemed to irritate Minor, but also seemed to impact his performance.  Minor posted a 6.59 ERA over five starts in July, as opposed to a 2.40 ERA over 112 2/3 IP from March through June, and a perfect 0.00 ERA in 15 August frames.

It still isn’t out of the question that Texas eventually trades Minor this winter, perhaps depending on the tenor of the extension talks.  But since GM Jon Daniels already made the call to keep Minor since the Rangers were still on the outskirts of the wild card race, there’s also a solid argument to be made for keeping him in the fold both in 2020 and beyond.

Minor has been tremendous since signing his three-year, $28MM deal in the 2017-18 offseason, following up a strong performance in 2018 with an All-Star showing in 2019.  He has a 2.90 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 3.12 K/BB rate over 155 total frames, with a 175 ERA+ that leads all of baseball.  While ERA predictors (3.97 FIP, 4.38 xFIP, 4.30 SIERA) aren’t a fan and he is getting a lot of strand rate help (85.7%), Minor’s .291 wOBA is a near-perfect match of his .290 xwOBA.  Looking at the Statcast numbers, Minor is in the top one percent of all pitchers in terms of fastball spin, which thus also explains why batters have been unable to square up much against him — Minor is in the 90th percentile in both exit velocity and hard-hit ball rate.

The big question going forward, of course, is whether Minor can continue to sustain this performance.  Minor turns 32 in December, so an extension would begin with his age-33 season, and teams have been increasingly wary about signing any player (pitcher or hitter) into their 30’s.  Nonetheless, the Rangers would surely appreciate gaining some extra stability beyond just Lance Lynn amidst an overall unstable rotation mix, while Minor would likely prefer an extension rather than risk a potential downturn in 2020 and an uncertain trip back into the free agent market.

Details On The Twins’ Trade Deadline Talks

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Sam Dyson and Sergio Romo represented the sum total of the Twins’ midseason additions as the club tries to hold its lead atop the AL Central.  While Dyson and Romo address needs in the bullpen, Minnesota was also very aggressive in looking for starting pitching, though ultimately came up short in reinforcing the rotation.

Rival teams continually asked the Twins about top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, with the Mets among the multiple clubs who asking for both youngsters.  New York wanted both Lewis and Kiriloff in discussions about Noah Syndergaard, and if premium minor league talent wasn’t available for the ace, the Mets were also focused on adding Major League players, to the point of asking Minnesota about Byron Buxton in a possible Syndergaard deal.

Lewis and Kirilloff were also on the mind of the Blue Jays’ front office, as Toronto was looking for either of the prospects in exchange for Marcus Stroman.  Minnesota turned down this initial request, and The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that the Jays never called back with any other offers before trading Stroman to the Mets.  This would seem to indicate that the Jays were only interested in Lewis and Kirilloff specifically, though Hayes writes that “the Twins were disappointed when Toronto didn’t give them a chance to match an offer they believed they could have outdone.”

Beyond the prospects, Hayes tweeted that Luis Arraez was “everyone’s favorite ask” amongst teams who were offering rental players to Minnesota.  Arraez has been a revelation for the Twins over his first 43 Major League games, as the rookie is hitting .349/.422/.445 over 166 plate appearances.  Arraez has long boasted strong averages and on-base numbers in the minors, and while regression is inevitable, his .361 xwOBA isn’t far off his .388 wOBA.  With this much potential, it isn’t hard to see why the Twins were reluctant to part with a 22-year-old, multi-positional talent for only a rental player (or potentially anyone).

Hayes reports that the Twins were considering both Robbie Ray and Mike Minor, though concerns about Ray’s durability and Minor’s July struggles diminished the interest.  On the relief front, the Twins also had interest in Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez.

“It was one of the most unique trade deadlines I’ve ever experienced,” Twins GM Thad Levine told Hayes and other reporters.  “One error I made was assuming that early in the trade cycle that the leverage was towards the seller.  I assumed that there was going to be a little bit of a shift of that see-saw back to the buyer as we got closer to the deadline. I’m not sure we ever saw the shift in the see-saw. The sellers felt pretty emboldened. They set the prices high, which is very normal in a trade deadline. But I’m not sure they moved off of those high asks at any point, and as a result, there were just a finite number of players that meaningfully changed the fortunes of playoff-contending teams.”

Early talks with the Giants involving multiple players (including Dyson, Madison Bumgarner, and Will Smith) did result in the late Dyson trade.  Minnesota and San Francisco re-engaged in talks just 45 minutes before the 3pm CT deadline, medicals on the four players in the deal were exchanged at 2:50pm, and the trade was finalized with just five minutes to spare.

Mozeliak On Cards’ Quiet Deadline

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Even as their NL Central rivals landed improvements in the midst of a tight race, the Cardinals came away empty at yesterday’s trade deadline. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch broke down the fruitless negotiating effort and the ensuing comments of Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak.

The Cards “explored starting pitching first and foremost,” said Mozeliak, with an eye to improving an underwhelming rotation. Presumably, they continued to engage on lefty relievers. There’s no indication whether the team contemplated position-player improvements, though there was certainly an argument to be made for some exploration on that front. The Cards are loaded with options, but the production at second and third base has been sporadic and center field has been a bit of a black hole this season.

While the St. Louis front office is no doubt keenly interested in breaking a four-year string of seasons that ended without postseason appearances, it wasn’t willing to bet the farm on 2019. Per Goold, the club wasn’t willing to give up outfielders Tyler O’Neill or Harrison Bader to rent Zack Wheeler down the stretch, as the Mets demanded. Neither were the Cards amenable to parting with top prospects Dylan Carlson and/or Nolan Gorman in order to pry loose a quality hurler with 2020 contract control, such as Robbie Ray or Mike Minor.

Given those stances, perhaps it’s less than surprising that nothing got done. Gorman and Carlson were obvious targets for other teams to pursue when the Cards came calling on good starters. The club’s other best prospect, catcher Andrew Knizner, is on the MLB roster at present and likely was also off limits. While we had seen indication that the Cardinals were dangling some young outfielders, including O’Neill and the just-promoted Lane Thomas, it seems that those pieces were not available under all circumstances.

Ultimately, the Cardinals did swing two deals with the Dodgers, adding recently designated reliever Zac Rosscup and sending out unwanted infielder Jedd Gyorko. They also claimed southpaw Adalberto Mejia in advance of the deadline. It’s tough to say that any of those acquisitions moved the needle, especially in comparison to the acquisitions of the rival Cubs (Craig Kimbrel, Nicholas Castellanos, David Phelps, Tony Kemp), Brewers (Drew Pomeranz, Ray Black, Jake Faria, Jordan Lyles), and even Reds (Trevor Bauer).

There certainly seemed to be room to improve. There’s an argument to be made that the Cards ought to have been more willing, in particular, to part with some of its young outfielders to make something happen. Then again, the winter St. Louis blockbuster has served to highlight some of the pitfalls in such moves. There will be a need for some of those players next season as well, with others perhaps still representing future trade fodder. And it’s hard to second-guess a team’s internal valuations on players it knows better than anyone might hope to from the outside.

As Mozeliak summed things up: “When you spend seven straight days in a room working on something, you tend to want to see something come out of it. So, there’s a high level of frustration, even for us. But we answer to people and have to be responsible for decisions that come out of it and we just didn’t feel we could get there.”

Wheeler, Vazquez, Bumgarner, Minor All Held At Deadline

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Though deals can and will still trickle in after the formal end of the MLB summer trade period, there are specific reports indicating that several top trade candidates will not be changing hands.

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