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Mike Leake

Diamondbacks Notes: Greinke, Leake, Trades

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Even after agreeing to terms with free agent ace Zack Greinke on a gigantic, gutsy contract, the Diamondbacks aren’t through looking for pitching help. There is still mutual interest between the Diamondbacks and free agent starter Mike Leake, Diamondbacks beat writer Jack Magruder tweets. The Giants are also still contenders for Leake’s services, Magruder notes — even though they, too, have committed a big chunk of change to a top free agent starter in Jeff Samardzija. Here’s more from out of Arizona.

  • While the Diamondbacks are interested in acquiring another pitcher, the amount of money they’ve committed to Greinke might mean they’re more likely to turn to the trade market, MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert writes. It’s very unlikely that they would trade A.J. Pollock, Gilbert writes, but they could deal from their collection of infielders.
  • Diamondbacks baseball isn’t usually a burning topic in December, even in Phoenix, but the Greinke deal changes that, Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic writes. It makes them a contender and it makes them relevant, and it also helps weaken their NL West foes in Los Angeles. It also reflects a change in approach for the Snakes, who lately have avoided the risk associated with expensive long-term deals.

Stark’s Latest: Cueto, Leake Miller, Indians, Rays

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Here are the latest starting pitcher rumors in advance of the winter meetings, courtesy of ESPN’s Jayson Stark.

  • Johnny Cueto is the top pitcher on the free agent market, but his earning potential remains unclear. Some insiders are surprised he turned down the six-year, $120MM offer previously extended by the Diamondbacks. As Stark points out, Cueto is sixth among active starters with a 3.30 ERA so he would seemingly justify a serious investment. However, concerns about his health and late-season struggles have executives worried. Per one source, “If you told me that, within 24 hours [of arriving at the meetings], all of the big free-agent starters would be signed except Cueto, I’d believe it.“
  • Former Reds starter Mike Leake, 28, is in demand largely because he’s one of the youngest pitchers on the market. He has a history of durability, but that comes with league average production on the mound. However, Leake is also well-above average as a hitter, boosting his value to NL clubs. Stark expects a “stampede” in Leake’s direction during the Winter Meetings. One source believes Leake will be overpaid by an exuberant market.
  • The Braves would jump on a Shelby Miller trade if they received the right controllable position player. To date, Atlanta has focused on particularly high value targets like Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, and Jorge Soler. As you might guess, few if any teams are eager to trade established, high quality young hitters for pitching. The Braves have shown no sign of backing down on their asking price.
  • We’ve heard a lot about the Indians pitching depth – namely Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Stark and his sources think the club will stand pat this winter. “You’re just shifting around your problems,” said one contact in regard to a hypothetical pitcher-for-hitter swap. The team’s strength is built around their rotation. They may be best served by simply maximizing that advantage.
  • With the exception of Chris Archer, the Rays are shopping all of their starting pitchers. That’s par for the course for the Rays who historically have been open to trading anybody to improve the long term outlook of the franchise. Stark specifically mentions Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore as available, but we can probably presume that Erasmo Ramirez is being floated too.
  • Stark offers plenty of more notes in his column including the latest on the Yankees, Padres, and the remaining buyers for pitching.

Starting Pitching Notes: Leake, Iwakuma, Maeda, Chen, Marlins

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The red-hot free agent pitching market will only help the Indians in trade talks, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes.  With so many top starters commanding giant salaries, the Tribe’s collection of young arms becomes more attractive both to teams who are hesitant to overspend on pitching, or to teams who missed out on their free agent targets.  President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti could be making a career-defining move, Pluto believes, if he chooses to deal one of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar or Trevor Bauer for a big bat since such a trade could put the Tribe over the top as contenders.

Here’s more from the ever-shifting pitching rumor mill…

  • The Giants are still interested in Mike Leake, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets, even after signing Jeff Samardzija.  Leake’s market is “now more defined” with so many other top pitchers off the board.  The Giants may not be willing to give Leake a Samardzija-esque deal, however, as reported by Andrew Baggarly of the Bay Area News Group (via Twitter).  This could take them out of the running for Leake given how several other teams also have interest.
  • Also from Olney, the Royals are in the mix for starting pitching.  Chris Young has been the only starter directly tied to Kansas City in reports, though there has been speculation that the World Series champs could aim higher in their search for rotation help.
  • The Dodgers and Giants both fell short in their search for Zack Greinke, but MLB Network’s Peter Gammons wonders if the two arch-rivals could compete again for Hisashi Iwakuma.  Both teams have already shown interest in the Japanese righty, and while the Mariners also have a long-stated interest in re-signing Iwakuma, I would guess the presence of these two big-market teams could drive Iwakuma’s price out of Seattle’s comfort zone.
  • There has been speculation in the Japanese media that Kenta Maeda would prefer to pitch for the Dodgers, according to NPBTracker’s Patrick Newman (Twitter link).  The Dodgers have a long history with Japanese talent and they have a need in the rotation, so a connection makes sense.  L.A. will get a chance to negotiate with Maeda if they’re one of the teams who posts a $20MM bid for his services.
  • Wei-Yin Chen has become a “hot topic” for the Cubs, 670TheScore.com’s Bruce Levine tweets.  Chen is another free agent whose market should benefit from other pitchers disappearing off the market.  Chicago, for instance, had interest in Price, Zimmermann and Samardzija before all of those pitchers signed elsewhere, though the Cubs already made one rotation-bolstering move in signing John Lackey.
  • The Marlins are exploring a wide range of pitching options as they head to the Winter Meetings, president of baseball operations Michael Hill tells MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes.  Frisaro suggests that James Shields or Wade Miley could be trade targets since Miami has been interested in both pitchers in the past, though the Marlins are trying to hang onto their core position players in deals (presumably trade candidate Marcell Ozuna isn’t necessarily part of this equation).
  • The Marlins are open to the possibility of signing Cliff Lee, Frisaro reports.  Presumably Miami would be one of several clubs interested in seeing if the former Cy Young Award winner has anything left in his comeback attempt.
  • The Astros could look to deal 26-year-old lefty Brett Oberholtzer, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).  Oberholtzer has a 3.94 ERA, 2.86 K/BB rate and 5.9 K/9 over 253 2/3 career innings, all with Houston since 2013.  He’s one of many young arms the Astros have on hand beyond the five-man rotation, and the southpaw could be expendable if Houston is satisfied with its other depth options.  Heyman speculates that the Orioles, Phillies, Rangers and Reds could all be fits as trade partners.
  • The Twins aren’t one of the reported 10 teams interested in Henderson Alvarez, 1500ESPN.com’s Darren Wolfson tweets.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Zack Greinke Deal

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Here’s a quick roundup of links on the Diamondbacks’ very surprising, and extremely expensive, $206.5MM pact with Zack Greinke.

  • Diamondbacks executives Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart met with free agent starting pitcher Mike Leake on Thursday, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. The Snakes remain interested in signing Leake even after agreeing to terms with Greinke, suggesting that they’ll continue to be active on the market for starting pitching despite the huge splash they’ve already made.
  • Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija stand to benefit from Greinke’s signing with Arizona, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. The signing leaves the market thinner, and the Dodgers, Giants and Cardinals are all still looking for starting pitching.
  • Greinke’s hefty deal was an appropriate one for a player who ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider-only) sees as the best free agent starter available this offseason. Greinke’s offspeed stuff, brilliant command and feel for pitch sequencing make him a solid bet to continue to be successful even if his velocity declines, making him as close to Greg Maddux as there exists in today’s game. Law does agree with the Diamondbacks’ apparent self-assessment that they still need another starter, however, and argues that they’re still a few pieces short of being real contenders.
  • Greinke’s huge new contract is a risky but bold move for the Diamondbacks, who have suddenly made themselves relevant in the NL West, Yahoo! Sports’ Tim Brown writes. The deal gives the Diamondbacks a bona fide ace to add to their collection of younger talent. It does, however, make their success in the future fairly heavily dependent upon the success of the contract, given that Greinke’s astronomical annual salaries will take up what will likely be huge chunks of the Diamondbacks’ relatively modest payrolls.

Free Agent Notes: Utley, Victorino, Cubs, Rangers, Giants, Non-Tenders

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Both the Angels and Dodgers have ongoing interest in free agent Chase Utley, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com tweets. A source tells Stark that the veteran would like to play in his native California, and it seems he’ll have options to do just that. Utley has been consistently linked to the Dodgers since they declined his $15MM option, and agent Joel Wolfe recently went on-record to state that five or six teams have expressed interest in Utley as a “mostly everyday infielder.” From my vantage point, the Angels have a clearer path to regular (or near-regular) at-bats for Utley. The Dodgers have multiple infield options, including Enrique Hernandez and Jose Peraza.

A few more notes on the free-agent market…

  • Another former Phillies stalwart, Shane Victorino, is telling clubs that he intends to return to switch hitting in advance of the 2016 season, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. “I am finding out that not switch-hitting and not doing things from both sides of the plate had lots to do with the way my body has felt,” Victorino told Rosenthal. “Going back and doing things from both sides is such a good thing for my body now that I can physically do it again.”
  • Within that same piece, Rosenthal notes that the Cubs are “busy” looking for a center fielder but are faced with relatively limited options. Dexter Fowler is a possibility for the Cubs but is currently exploring the open market. Signing Jason Heyward to play center field is an option, but the team would then need to address its rotation in a cost-effective manner by trading a young bat such as Jorge Soler or Javier Baez. If Soler ends up being the price to bolster the rotation, then the outfield would, of course, remain an issue.
  • The Rangers still love Mike Napoli, tweets MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan, but general manager Jon Daniels indicated today that his club may not have the “right spot” to fit Napoli into the mix next season. Sullivan’s Seattle counterpart, Greg Johns, however, tweets that Napoli could potentially be of interest to the Mariners, who have a need at first base after trading both Logan Morrison and Mark Trumbo this offseason. Napoli struggled for much of the season in Boston but was reinvigorated by a return to the Lone Star State, hitting .295/.396/.513 in 91 plate appearances with the Rangers. His cumulative .278/.391/.563 line against lefties last year indicates that Napoli, at the very least, is still a highly potent platoon option.
  • Sticking with former Rangers, right-hander Colby Lewis tells Jeff Wilson of the Forth Worth Star-Telegram that Dr. Keith Meister gave him a “thumbs up” on his left knee (links to Twitter). Lewis has been working out and expects to be 100 percent for Spring Training. Many teams have contacted his agents at Octagon, says Lewis, though he remains hopeful that the Rangers will be interested after his latest knee exam. There’s some interest on both sides, according to Wilson.
  • The Giants consider Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake fallback plans in the event that they’re unable to lure Zack Greinke away from L.A., tweets Rosenthal. John Lackey, too, is a consideration for San Francisco. There’s no word yet on a decision from Greinke, who is said to be choosing between the Dodgers and Giants.
  • In the wake of yesterday’s tender deadline, MLB.com’s Zachary Finkelstein identified five non-tendered players that are still worthy of roster spots and can be potential bargains for clubs in 2016 (and, in some cases, beyond). Henderson Alvarez tops the list and is followed by Pedro Alvarez, Chris Carter, Tyler Flowers and Neftali Feliz. Alvarez’s youth and track record, the power of Alvarez and Carter, the pitch-framing abilities of Flowers and still-strong velocity plus a nice finish for Feliz give some elements of value to each, he writes.

Free Agent Notes: Navarro, Madson, Leake, Soria, Flowers

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Switch-hitting catcher Dioner Navarro is a “name to keep an eye on” in connection to the White Sox, says Yahoo’s Jeff Passan (links to Twitter). The sense among competitors for Navarro’s services is that something could come together quickly between Navarro and the ChiSox now that Tyler Flowers has been non-tendered, according to Passan, who calls Navarro the “top” offensive catcher on the market. I’d posit that Wilin Rosario certainly gives Navarro a run for his money in that regard, though Navarro probably comes with the better defensive reputation of the two. Regardless, a match between the Sox and Navarro certainly seems plausible.

A few more notes on some various free agents for those who are joining me in the realm of insomnia…

  • MLB.com’s Jane Lee reports that the Athletics are interested in right-hander Ryan Madson, with one source telling her that the A’s are a “legitimate suitor” for Madson’s services. Oakland is “square in the mix” for Madson, says Lee’s source. She notes that the former Phillies closer, who enjoyed a brilliant bounceback campaign in Kansas City this past season, is looking for a multi-year deal. While Oakland has already picked up reliever Liam Hendriks from Toronto, Lee writes that the team isn’t shying away from the concept of adding another relief arm. She adds that GM David Forst has stated that payroll won’t be a deterrent in the team’s pursuit of an additional setup arm.
  • The Giants still haven’t engaged in talks with right-hander Mike Leake, tweets Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. While San Francisco is widely believed to be interested in retaining the right-hander it acquired in late July, Schulman says the belief is that the team’s pursuit of ace Zack Greinke needs to be resolved before a serious effort to re-sign Leake is made. Greinke is reportedly deciding between the Giants and his former club (and San Francisco division rival), the Dodgers.
  • The Blue Jays and Royals are among the clubs monitoring the market for right-hander Joakim Soria, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link). The Tigers are out of the mix for Soria after acquiring Francisco Rodriguez, he adds. Both Toronto and K.C. are known to be interested in relief help, though a recent report from Crasnick indicated that the Blue Jays aren’t inclined to pay top dollar for any bullpen arms right now, and Soria is reportedly seeking a $27MM total over a three-year span, which seems to make the two an unlikely match.
  • CSN Chicago’s Dan Hayes tweets that the White Sox’ decision to non-tender Flowers might have been a blessing in disguise for the catcher. One scout texted Hayes shortly after the news of Flowers’ non-tender broke, telling Hayes that Flowers “should thank” the White Sox for cutting him loose, because his belief is that Flowers will get more than his projected $3.5MM arbitration salary in this market. That seems potentially steep to me, considering the fact that Alex Avila and Geovany Soto have both signed for under $3MM, but Flowers did post standout framing numbers last year and does have some pop, so clubs are sure to be interested. If nothing else, he could probably surpass that number by way of incentives in a one-year deal with a new club.

Free Agent Notes: Fowler, Zobrist, Leake, Venable, Relievers

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The Mets have some level of interest in Dexter Fowler as a center field option, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). However, Ben Zobrist remains the team’s top priority in free agency. Recent reports have indicated that the Mets won’t go to four years on Zobrist, and that will probably need to change in order to sign him, as Yahoo’s Jeff Passan said last night the price tag is currently believed to be around $60MM over four years. Should the Mets lose out on Zobrist, they could look to upgrade in center field, where Juan Lagares had a down season in 2015 — the first of a four-year contract extension. Lagares’ contract is affordable enough that he could be moved to a reserve role without it being an overpay.

A few more notes from around the free-agent market…

  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick delivers a slew of news pertaining to Zobrist (Twitter links 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Per Crasnick, the Nationals, Giants and Dodgers are all in the mix for Zobrist as well. The Cubs and Cardinals like Zobrist but don’t have as many at-bats to offer as the other clubs. The Royals are probably priced out on Zobrist, and while the Angels inquired earlier this offseason, there’s been no recent discussion between the two sides. Additionally, Zobrist’s preference is to play for a contender, making the Braves a tough fit even though they do have some level of interest. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press hears (Twitter link) that about 11 clubs are in the mix for Zobrist, to some extent, but the Twins aren’t among them (which is no surprise given their glut of outfielders and Brian Dozier’s presence at second base).
  • Crasnick hears the same that Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has recently suggested — that having fallen short on David Price, the Cardinals could turn their attention to Mike Leake on the free agent market. Leake won’t cost near the same amount that the Cardinals were willing to go on Price, but he’d be a strong option to replace the injured Lance Lynn in their rotation in 2016 and would provide value for another four years or so beyond that point.
  • Also from Crasnick, both the Indians and Orioles have expressed interest in free-agent outfielder Will Venable. While the 32-year-old Venable is coming off a down season split between San Diego and Texas, he has historically been a productive bat for the Friars and has posted solid numbers away from the spacious Petco Park over the life of his career. Venable is also capable of playing all three outfield positions.
  • A pair of notes on relievers: Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald hears that the Red Sox are no longer in the market for right-hander Joakim Soria (Twitter link). Having spent an enormous amount in terms of dollars and prospects to acquire Price and Craig Kimbrel, it’s perhaps logical that the Sox wouldn’t spend so heavily. Additionally, Crasnick spoke to an agent who said that the Blue Jays are looking for an impact (Twitter link), power arm for their bullpen but are trying to land such a piece for “dollar store prices,” suggesting that the team isn’t keen on shelling out a significant multi-year deal.

Cubs Notes: Samardzija, Zobrist, Leake, Lackey

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ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers has penned a column on the status of the Cubs’ targets in free agency at present. To this point, the team hasn’t given any indication that a pursuit of either Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto is a possibility, leaving David Price as the sole top-tier arm that the Cubs could be expected to pursue, Rogers writes. The Cubs’ Plan B in terms of free-agent pitchers focuses on Jeff Samardzija at this point, according to Rogers, and sources tell him that the team is also in the mix for Ben Zobrist. Signing Zobrist would all but ensure a trade of Starlin Castro, but of course, there is widespread interest in Zobrist, who is one of the most popular free agents on this year’s market. Rogers lists Jason Heyward as a perhaps speculative target but notes that president Theo Epstein has pointed out in the past how young the game is getting, and Heyward, 26, would indeed fit into the Cubs’ youth movement in terms of position players. I’d imagine that signing Heyward would create further trade speculation surrounding Jorge Soler and Kyle Schwarber, though Rogers doesn’t indicate that Heyward is a top target of the Cubs as things presently stand, so much of that speculation would be putting the cart before the horse.

Here are a few more notes pertaining to the Cubs…

  • CSN Chicago’s David Kaplan hears that the Cubs are active on many fronts at this point but still doesn’t believe that the Cubs will be significant players for Price or Greinke (links to Twitter). Kaplan hears that the Cubs are currently active on the trade market and are also in touch with the representatives for Samardzija, Mike Leake and John Lackey. Unsurprisingly, the Cubs’ highly touted farm system has many names that are in high demand as the team explores the trade market for starting pitching. Any of Samardzija, Leake or Lackey would give the Cubs a strong third starter to slot behind Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester in the rotation.
  • Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes that the difference between this winter and last offseason for the Cubs is that Epstein & Co. can now sell prospective free agents on the allure of joining a contender rather than preaching patience and trust that the rebuild will deliver a winning club. Epstein also explained to Sullivan a number of non-monetary incentives that the Cubs pitch to players, including the team’s new clubhouse and the programs the Cubs have set up for the families of players to enjoy upon relocating to Chicago. “Just little things behind the scenes we do that really impact the lives for our players’ families they may not be aware of,” said Epstein. Of course, as Sullivan notes, those factors alone probably won’t outweigh the difference between tens of millions of dollars, but they could help tip the scales in Chicago’s favor should they make a similar offer to another club for a free agent target.
  • Epstein noted today that the club’s early-offseason moves haven’t been without their importance, as Rogers reports. “Depth is underrated, especially in the winter,” said Hoyer. “Everyone will write out lineups in the offseason and they don’t focus on bench, they don’t focus on the bullpen, they don’t focus on guys in Triple-A that are going up and down. Over the course of six months, those are the little moves that make a huge difference.” But Hoyer made clear that more impactful transactions are coming in the near term, with the organization prepared to adapt as the market explodes. “You have to stay nimble and know things will come at you that you might not have expected,” he said. “Some team will throw an idea at us that we never thought about.”

Free Agent Notes: Leake, Yankees, Young, Iwakuma

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The Giants have yet to talk contract with free agent righty Mike Leake, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter links). That doesn’t mean that he won’t be a target, of course, but Schulman explains that it does suggest he’ll be fully testing the market before making a decision. Generally, says Schulman, San Francisco has indicated it will be more tight-lipped about its pursuit of pitching than it was last offseason, when the club openly chased Jon Lester.

Here are some more notes as the free agent market begins to take shape:

  • While the Yankees might not go after the biggest free agent names, the club could be active in the second base market, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes. New York has a variety of in-house options to be considered there, of course, but will also look at players such as Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, and Howie Kendrick, per the report.
  • It remains to be seen how active the Yankees will be, but adding to the rotation figures to be one area of focus. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com writes (in a broader notes column) that Jeff Samardzija and Wei-Yin Chen are two names that have come up in internal discussions.
  • The Royals have interest in a reunion with righty Chris Young, Heyman adds. The 36-year-old delivered plenty of value to the club after signing late in the offseason last year, of course, though he’ll figure to draw wider interest after contributing 123 1/3 frames of 3.06 ERA pitching in a swingman capacity.
  • New Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has made clear that bringing back Hisashi Iwakuma is a priority for the club, and Bob Dutton of the Seattle Times explains that his status will be important for determining the rest of the club’s winter. Re-signing the veteran would allow the team to approach the rest of the rotation market with patience while focusing elsewhere. If not, Seattle may be forced to spend more in adding another starter.

Free Agent Profile: Mike Leake

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The Reds fast-tracked Mike Leake toward free agency by having him skip the minor leagues almost entirely, and he’s now poised to be one of the youngest free-agent pitchers in recent memory.

Strengths/Pros

The biggest positive for Leake heading into free agency is his age. Because the former No. 8 overall pick went straight from college ball to the Reds’ Major League rotation — with a pit stop in the Arizona Fall League along the way — he racked up six years of service time quickly. Leake doesn’t turn 28 until November, so the first year of his free-agent contract will come at a time when most comparably aged players are still two, if not three years removed from free agency. And, because he skipped the minors, his 1110 career professional innings are 170 innings fewer than the next lowest among his free-agent competitors (Marco Estrada).

For the second consecutive year, Leake posted a 3.70 ERA. That marks three straight seasons with a sub-3.75 ERA and at least 190 innings. All but two months of those three years came while pitching his home games at an extremely hitter-friendly home venue: Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. Leake was able to thrive in large part due to his excellent control (2.3 BB/9 for his career) and his strong ground-ball rate. Leake’s 50.2 percent career mark in that regard is impressive, and it’s ticked upwards over the past two seasons, now siting closer to 53 percent.

Leake’s mix of pitches is an interesting component of his free agent stock. Detractors can point to the fact that he doesn’t throw particularly hard, but his fastball has increased in average velocity each season, per Baseball Info Solutions. He’s also less reliant on that fastball than nearly every pitcher in the game; Leake’s 44.1 percent fastball usage was the seventh-lowest among non-knuckleballers this year, and he’s thrown it at just 45 percent in his career. Leake throws five different pitches at about 10 percent each, and you won’t find another starter who does that on a year-to-year basis. Four of those five pitches rated as above-average offerings this season.

Though he has just one season of 200-plus innings, Leake has been virtually injury free throughout his career. He landed on the DL late in the 2010 season with right shoulder fatigue but avoided the DL for the next five years, until a hamstring injury sidelined him for about two weeks in August. He dealt with some forearm tightness at season’s end, but it wasn’t serious and didn’t lead to major concern.

Leake batted quite well early in his career, and while he had his worst season at the plate in 2015, he’s an overall .212/.235/.310 hitter in the Majors. That’s obviously not good, relative to the rest of the league, but it’s not bad for a pitcher. Leake has six career homers and has hit a pair of long balls in each of the past two seasons. For NL clubs with interest, that’s a nice bonus element.

Because Leake was traded from Cincinnati to San Francisco, he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer. The same cannot be said for second-tier free agents such as Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, Ian Kennedy and Jordan Zimmermann — all of whom will likely require interested teams to surrender a draft pick upon signing.

Weaknesses/Cons

Leake is highly durable in the sense that he’s steered clear of the DL, but he’s not exactly a big innings eater. His career-high is 214 1/3 in 2014, but he’s never surpassed 200 otherwise. He’s young and durable, but teams will stop short of considering placing a “workhorse” label on him. Part of that is due to the fact that Leake is undersized for a pitcher. He’s listed at 5’10” and 190 pounds in the Reds’ media guide.

Perhaps more concerning for clubs is that in an age where velocity and strikeouts are being emphasized more than ever, Leake doesn’t bring either to the table. His career-best K/9 rate is 2014’s 6.9, and he averaged just 5.6 K/9 in 2015. Leake has added some life to his fastball each year, but this season’s 90.9 mph average still rated below the 91.7 mph league average for starting pitchers.

Leake has owned right-handed hitters over the past two seasons, but he’s had less success against lefties, and that’s been a trend throughout his career. He’s yielded a .274/.324/.444 batting line to lefties throughout his big league tenure. Some of that should be taken with a grain of salt, as those numbers aren’t park-adjusted, but that’s still the rough equivalent of Evan Longoria’s 2015 batting line — hardly an ideal result.

Part of the reason for those struggles against lefties is that while he throws five pitches, Leake’s changeup is decidedly below average. The same pitch values linked to above indicate that Leake’s changeup has been a positive pitch in just one season (and not by much). Perhaps it helps keep hitters off balance, but the pitch should seemingly be scratched from his arsenal. Leake’s cutter also ranks as a negative for his career, though it was a good pitch for him in 2015.

Market

Leake’s age, clean bill of health on his right arm and lack of a qualifying offer will make him appealing to a number of clubs. The Giants are known to very much want to re-sign Leake, and the California native is open to remaining in San Francisco. However, the Giants will face competition.

The Diamondbacks have already been linked to Leake on multiple occasions, and he makes sense for any club hoping to bolster the middle of its rotation. That could include the Tigers, Orioles, Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mariners, Rangers, and Twins.

Leake is a native of Fallbrook, Calif., which is about 56 miles north of San Diego, 75 miles south of Anaheim and 98 miles south of Los Angeles, so perhaps he’ll have some desire to latch on with one of the Southern California teams, if they show interest. However, Leake also played college ball at Arizona State, whose campus is all of 10 miles from Chase Field. It’s not hard to imagine him having interest in returning to the area, and the D-Backs are reportedly interested.

Expected Contract

Four years has been the going rate for the market’s top secondary arms in recent seasons, with Ervin Santana, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brandon McCarthy and Jason Vargas all serving as examples. However, each of those pitchers was at least two full years older than Leake at the time they hit the open market. Leake’s skill set doesn’t necessarily leap off the page and lead to visions of five- and six-year contract offers, but teams will undoubtedly recognize that they’re buying far more of a pitcher’s prime than they would with virtually any other free agent arm.

As such, five years seems not only possible but likely for Leake and his representatives at the Beverly Hills Sports Council. That’s an atypical number of years for a starting pitcher based on recent markets, as Leake would become the first pitcher in three years to ink a five-year pact (Anibal Sanchez, 2012). Typically, it’s a four-year ceiling for the second-tier of arms and a minimum of six year’s for the market’s truly elite, but there’s a stacked crop of starting pitchers this offseason, and Leake isn’t your average free agent due to his age.

Rick Porcello — a similar pitcher to Leake in terms of both age and skill set — recently commanded $20MM per free agent year on an extension with the Red Sox. That huge annual value, however, came when Porcello was younger than Leake and also was somewhat of a trade-off for keeping the term of the contract to four years. That deal serves to emphasize the value that teams will place on young arms, even if they’re not traditional power pitchers that can rack up a strikeout per inning. Because he’ll command a term of at least five years on the open market, Leake won’t be able to make that trade-off for the higher annual value, but he should still do well for himself. I’m predicting a five-year, $80MM contract.

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