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Miguel Tejada

The Miguel Tejada Situation

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Jeff Zrebiec, who does a fine job covering the Orioles for the Baltimore Sun, has a thorough dissection of the Miguel Tejada situation.  To sum it up:

  • The general sentiment within the organization seems to be that Tejada has slipped significantly on defense.  There’s talk of moving him to third base and Melvin Mora back to the outfield.  It seems that Tejada would be open to this.  As we saw with Alfonso Soriano, he really doesn’t have a choice.
  • Zrebiec says that trade rumors will again swirl around Tejada this winter. He didn’t want to move to third base for the Angels; has anything changed?  Tejada again has no choice here because he does not have a no-trade clause.  He makes $13MM in ’08 and the same in ’09.
  • Tejada’s OPS is down to.800, lowest it’s been since ’03.  It’s high time to trade him; Zrebiec talked to some execs who think the Orioles can still get two high-ceiling prospects.
  • If the Orioles want Tejada at third, I imagine an acquiring team would too.  Conveniently, the free agent market for 3Bs is weak beyond A-Rod and Lowell.  The Tigers, Twins, Angels, Phillies, Astros,  Brewers (Braun to left), Dodgers, Giants, or Diamondbacks could look to use him there.  The Cubs and White Sox seem more likely to try him at shortstop.  Tons of options here.

Tigers Trade/Signing Speculation

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Lynn Henning of the Detroit News posted a Q&A yesterday, giving his informed opinion on the Tigers’ various hot stove situations.  Below are some highlights.

  • Henning expects Kenny Rogers to be with the Tigers in 2008, and I think that’s the general sentiment around baseball.  Rogers has already stated that it’s the Tigers or retirement in 2008.  I’ll guess a $6MM base salary plus incentives to make $10MM possible.
  • Henning sees the Tigers picking up Ivan Rodriguez’s $13MM option for ’08, for lack of a better option.  Given the $3MM buyout it’s kind of a like a one-year, $10MM deal.  Ken Rosenthal opined back on August 11th that the Tigers would choose the buyout, but he also felt the team was "almost certain" to exercise the option when discussing it in April.
  • The price for Miguel Tejada – $26MM over two years plus a bevy of young players – is considered too high.  I’m not sure where the Tigers payroll will be in ’08; they opened ’07 with a team-record $95MM mark.  Based on my back of the napkin estimates, the Tigers will have to pay out a net $7.5MM extra based on escalating salaries of players already under contract.  Contracts for Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, and Jeremy Bonderman will contribute to a $19MM increase, while the losses of Todd Jones, Sean Casey, and Neifi Perez will save the team $11.5MM.  The net effect is the $7.5MM increase, which doesn’t account for replacements for the players lost.
  • One minor offseason acquisition for Detroit could be a left-handed hitting outfielder who can play first base. Luis Gonzalez, Mark Sweeney, or Darin Erstad could fit the bill.

Olney: Tejada, Piazza Put On Waivers

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ESPN’s Buster Olney has some waiver activity for us this evening.  Keep in mind that many, many players are put on waivers; there’s no risk for a team in doing so.

Orioles shortstop Miguel Tejada was placed on waivers, and the White Sox made a claim.  Olney simply says that the two sides "did not work out a deal," but doesn’t say whether they negotiated.  The Sox have had their eye on Tejada for a while; they had talks with the Orioles about him back in December of 2005.  Olney says the Orioles will now keep Tejada for at least the rest of the season.  There’s no real rush for the Orioles; they can get more teams involved during the winter meetings.

Tejada makes another $3.85MM this year plus $13MM in each of the 2008 and 2009 seasons.  He’s also owed $4MM in signing bonus money spread over those last two seasons.  So, $33.85MM for 2.32 seasons.  That’s an average annual value of about $14.6MM.  He’d certainly create some much-needed excitement on the south side of Chicago.

Olney also adds that Mike Piazza passed through waivers without being claimed.  Any team in baseball could’ve had Piazza if willing to pay the remaining $2.6MM on his contract.  Instead, the A’s will try to work out a trade and would most likely have to assume some of Piazza’s salary.  The Twins, Angels, and Mariners seem to be the main possibilities.    

Rosenthal’s Latest: Lohse, Hunter, Contreras

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The latest trade and signing rumors from Ken Rosenthal:

  • Rosenthal believes Alex Rodriguez’s ability to play shortstop could increase the number of suitors.  Take a look at the free agents – there may not be a single viable option at short this winter.  Still, the number of suitors for Rodriguez is severely limited by his massive contract requirement.  Not too many clubs aside from the Yankees and Red Sox can get in on $240MM over eight years or whatever.  The lack of available, reasonably priced shortstops could compel the Braves and Orioles to aggressively shop Edgar Renteria and Miguel Tejada.
  • As a 29 year-old free agent starter with decent stuff, Scott Boras could sell Kyle Lohse as the next Gil Meche this winter.  Meche’s work in the season’s first three months would only aid the wishcasting.  I put up a little Lohse history here, writing that his deal will likely fall somewhere between Jason Marquis and Meche.  Other free agent starters who will be under 30 for the 2008 season: Carlos Zambrano, Jason Jennings, Joe Kennedy, and Byung-Hyun Kim.
  • Rosenthal believes the Rangers will bid on Torii Hunter this winter unless they acquire a proven center fielder this summer.  He mentions that Jon Daniels set his sights on Shane Victorino but the Phils would rather trade Michael Bourn.  Unless the Rangers get a proven guy they will still go after Hunter.
  • The Mariners scouted Jose Contreras and Matt Morris recently, but both were lousy.  I still think Jennings could sneak in there as the best available starter, but he too hasn’t pitched well in July.  Definitely seems like the Mariners will snag some kind of starter.
  • Rosenthal disputes Evan Grant’s report of the Brewers and Indians showing interest in Kenny Lofton.  The Brewers are getting Bill Hall back soon and the Indians have some outfielders on the road to recovery as well.  Perfect, this frees him up for the Cubs!
  • Rosenthal mentions the same teams I did for Kevin Millar, but sees an August deal as a possibility.  Waiting until August doesn’t seem to make sense for the Orioles, as things get trickier then.
  • The Padres could trade Scott Linebrink in order to make payroll room for a starter.  Or they could just sign Brian Lawrence.  I discussed some other options for the Friars here.

Stark’s Latest: Tejada, Buehrle, Morris

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Jayson Stark posted a new column for ESPN yesterday; let’s take a glance at the trade rumors therein.

  • Miguel Tejada’s out until August, so that obviously means he won’t be traded this season.  Right?  Wrong – Stark and an AL exec think $30MM or so due to Tejada for the remaining 2.3 seasons on his contract would allow him to pass through waivers.  Miggy could be a hot topic for the August 31st trade deadline.  You may recall that last August Andruw Jones was placed on waivers, claimed, and pulled back.  Andruw called the affair "rude."  Here is a refresher on the waiver trade rules, in case you want to get a head start.
  • Steve Trachsel is the Oriole Stark expects to be traded at the July deadline.  They should move fast, as Trachsel’s stock is plummetting as expected.
  • Stark says Kenny Williams was asking for a ton for Mark Buehrle before extension talks picked up: two of each team’s best three prospects.  Makes sense; ask for that, and then settle for one Grade A prospect if you can get it.  Should Buehrle end up back on the trading block, the White Sox may have to break down and grant that 72 hour negotiating window for an extension.  Stark’s source makes a great point – if Buehrle signs with the Cardinals this offseason, the draft picks going to the team he departs will be the 38th pick and a second-rounder.  Not that thrilling.  But still, the smart money is on a contract extension with the White Sox for Buehrle.
  • Matt Morris is officially on the market, as he should be.  He’s over his head with a 3.39 ERA, but remains a solid, veteran innings eater with over 70 innings of playoff experience.  Morris will make another $5MM this year, $9.5MM in ’08, and $2MM signing bonus due at the end of his contract.  He’s also got a $9MM club option for ’09 with a $1MM buyout attached.  Giants GM Brian Sabean has always been a buyer at the trade deadline, acquiring players like Jason Schmidt, Kenny Lofton, Sidney Ponson, and Randy Winn.  Getting a decent prospect for Morris will be a new situation for Sabean.

Angels After Tejada Again

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Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal said only that Miguel Tejada might become available, and that the Angels have a need.  Now another source, Joseph A. Reaves of The Arizona Republic, says the Halos are making another run at Tejada.

The Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar for Tejada trade last year was nixed by O’s owner Peter Angelos.  With Tejada apparently in the midst of a significant power decline (his SLG is down to .421), maybe the Orioles would be more open to the same trade. Tejada makes $12MM this year, $13MM in ’08, and $13MM in ’09.

Tejada would of course have to be convinced to play third base, and Bill Stoneman would have to finally pull the trigger on a deal involving good prospects.

Even if Tejada slugs around .450 this year, he’s still be far, far better than what the Angels have gotten from their third basemen.  Chone Figgins, Maicer Izturis, and others have combined for a .235/.280/.296 line at the position. 

Unless he’s included in the deal, a Tejada acquisition would leave top prospect Brandon Wood without a spot on the Angels until 2009, when Orlando Cabrera’s contract is up.

Reds and Angels Discuss Dunn

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According to Ben Bolch of the L.A. Times, the Angels had preliminary discussions with the Reds regarding Adam Dunn.  Bolch’s source indicates that talks died because the Reds requested "a proven Major League starting pitcher, a Major League infielder – preferably a second baseman – and a top prospect."

Translation: Wayne Krivsky wanted Ervin Santana, Erick Aybar, and Brandon Wood.  OK, that sounds absurd.  And Aybar is a shortstop.  Negotiation is all about asking for more than you want and meeting at the right place, but I can’t figure out what the Reds asked for.  There’s no way they asked for the above with a straight face.  Maybe they wanted Santana and Howie Kendrick?  But then a top prospect on top?  C’mon now. Bolch’s source says the Halos wouldn’t trade Kendrick for Dunn straight up.

Santana plus one other useful player would be a fine bounty for Dunn, who will reach free agency after the season if he’s traded.

I have a correction, as I earlier wrote that Krivsky could simply exercise Dunn’s 2008 option and then retain freedom to trade him.  That’s not exactly true.  The situation, according to Ken Rosenthal:

"If the Reds keep Dunn and exercise his option after the season, he will gain full no-trade protection until next June 15. After that date, he could be traded to 10 clubs, but the list would be of his own choosing."

By the way, the Angels may turn their attention back to Miguel Tejada if they can’t get Dunn.  The Halos are again interested in him, according to the Riverside Press Enterprise.

Stark’s Latest

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Hey everybody, I’m back from my trip.  I hope you enjoyed the posts from Tom and Jeff in the meantime.  California was actually colder than Chicago is right now, go figure.

Jayson Stark had a new column up at ESPN.com yesterday; let’s dissect the trade rumors.

  • Stark quotes scouts doubting whether Miguel Tejada’s power will ever return.  Over the last year and a half or so, the Orioles had all sorts of young players they could’ve acquired for Tejada.  Names like Felix Pie, Rich Hill, Brandon McCarthy, Ryan Sweeney, Ervin Santana, Erick Aybar have surfaced before.  Tejada earns $12MM this year, $13MM in ’08, and another $13MM in ’09.  That doesn’t sound too bad but one more year of declining power might change my opinion.
  • Seems the D-Rays would like to trade Elijah Dukes for a solid reliever.  A few teams might bow out because of Dukes’ past, but in my experience most don’t care.  I could see a match with the Padres, as they will need a center fielder if Mike Cameron leaves.
  • Stark says the hottest free agent could be "30 year-old Chunichi Dragons center fielder Kosuke Fukudome, who will be an unrestricted free agent."  I have learned from Mike Plugh that Fukudome is best in right field, but might be able to get by in center.  Plugh thinks Fukudome will get $12-15MM annually for three or four seasons.  Will Carroll has connected the Red Sox to Fukudome, while Phil Rogers suggested the Cubs.  This is going to be one of the bigger stories of the winter, I think.

Grimsley Names Revealed

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Remember all that Jason Grimsley stuff from way back in June?  L.A. Times reporters Lance Pugmire and Tim Brown got a glance at an unredacted version of Grimsley’s affidavit, and all the names within were made public in this article. 

Here are the infamous six:

Andy Pettitte
Miguel Tejada
Brian Roberts
Jay Gibbons
David Segui
Roger Clemens

In addition, Albert Pujols’s trainer, Chris Mihlfeld, has apparently been cleared.  The trainer in question turned out to be former Yankees and Blue Jays strength coach Dr. Brian McNamee.  According to the article, McNamee works with Clemens and Pettitte.  It had previously been reported on Deadspin (at about an 80% confidence level) that Mihlfeld was the trainer named in the affidavit. 

It appears that McNamee once wrote a response column in the New York Times sometime in 2002 to refute Steve Kettman’s allegation of widespread steroid use in baseball.  I’ll try to find that one, but in the meantime you can read this.  McNamee was named on page 14 of Grimsley’s affidavit as a person who once referred Grimsley to an amphetamine source.  Kettman is an author and former sportswriter for the San Francisco Chronicle and was the ghostwriter of Jose Canseco’s Juiced.

You can read a little bit about Brian McNamee’s "Navy SEAL workouts" here and here.  Aside from Clemens and Pettitte, Ted Lilly and some other pitchers from the 2001 Yankees participated in McNamee’s rigorous workouts.  At this link, McNamee is interviewed and repeatedly hawks a multi-vitamin called InVite.  Finally, the New York Daily News adds to the info about McNamee, mentioning that he was questioned in connection with a possible sexual assault in 2001.

Dan Connolly and Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun already have reactions from Tejada and Gibbons in the Sunday edition of the Baltimore Sun.

Gibbons, back when Alex Sanchez became the first steroid bust back in April of 2005:

"We’re not messing around now.  Just the public perception that every time he goes to the plate, people will say he’s a cheater. You knew it was going to happen, you knew they would catch somebody."

Tejada Off The Market

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Ken Rosenthal has taken Jayson Stark’s 5% chance of Miguel Tejada being traded and one-upped that by indicating that Tejada is off the trade market entirely.

The Orioles had various offers floating about, but Peter Angelos ultimately did not see one he liked.  We’ll never be positive that the Angels really offered Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar.  But if they did, the Orioles may have made a mistake by passing.

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