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Miguel Sano

Twins Decline Options On Bundy, Archer, Sano

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The Twins announced this afternoon they’ve declined their respective options on Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer and Miguel Sanó. Minnesota also confirmed the previously-reported decision to exercise their option to retain starter Sonny Gray. None of those come as a surprise, as they were each easy calls for the Minnesota front office.

Bundy signed a $5MM guarantee last offseason, with the Twins rolling the dice he’d bounce back after an injury-plagued 2021 campaign in Anaheim. The deal came with an $11MM club option for 2023, giving them some extra contractual upside if Bundy righted the ship in the Twin Cities. The right-hander did stay healthy enough to take the ball 29 times and soak up 140 innings, but he didn’t put up the kind of numbers the front office had envisioned. Bundy managed only a 4.89 ERA with a well below-average 15.8% strikeout rate and a modest 9.7% swinging strike rate. He demonstrated excellent control, walking fewer than 5% of opponents,  but he didn’t miss many bats and surrendered 24 home runs (1.54 per nine innings).

A former fourth overall pick and top pitching prospect, Bundy has seen his velocity trend downwards as he’s battled injury concerns throughout his career. He averaged only 89 MPH on his four-seam this year, the first time his already pedestrian fastball has dipped below 90 MPH on average. Bundy, who turns 30 later this month, will collect a $1MM buyout and head back to free agency. He’s likely looking at one-year offers as a depth arm again, and it’s possible his next deal will come with a lower base salary than this’s year $4MM figure.

Archer was also an offseason signee, joining Bundy as part of Minnesota’s efforts to bolster the back of its rotation. He inked an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him a $2.75MM base salary and a $750K buyout on a 2023 option. He tacked on $3MM in incentives by making 25 starts this year, bringing Minnesota’s ultimate outlay to $6.5MM. Rather than trigger their end of a $10MM mutual option for next season, Minnesota sends the two-time All-Star back to the open market.

The 34-year-old posted a 4.56 ERA across 102 2/3 innings as Twin. That was his biggest workload since 2019, but Archer still had a pair of injured list stints due to hip and pectoral issues. When healthy, he posted a below-average 19.2% strikeout rate and walked batters at an elevated 11% clip. The righty still averaged 93 MPH on his heater, but this year’s 9.5% swinging strike percentage was his lowest mark since 2014.

Sanó, meanwhile, hits free agency for the first time in his career. Today’s move, while without suspense, looks as if it’ll officially close the books on his 13-year tenure in the organization. A high-profile amateur signee out of the Dominican Republic and subsequently one of the best prospects in the game, Sanó made his big league debut in 2015. He hit the ground running against MLB pitching, showcasing the massive raw power and lofty walk totals but huge strikeout rates that’d define his entire tenure in Minnesota.

The burly slugger looked capable of carrying a lineup at his best, including a .247/.346/.576, 34-homer showing in only 105 games in 2019. That earned Sanó a $30MM extension the following offseason, but that proved to be a misstep for the Twins. He posted only slightly above-average offensive numbers from 2020-21 and had an almost completely lost 2022 campaign. Sanó played in 20 games this year, putting up an .083/.211/.133 line in 71 plate appearances while battling persistent knee issues. The 29-year-old returned briefly from early-season knee surgery but spent the last two months on the IL.

Minnesota makes the easy call to pay Sanó a $3MM buyout rather than trigger a $14MM option on his services. He hits the market as a buy-low option for teams seeking first base help, with his huge power sure to get him some attention from another club.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

Twins Transfer Miguel Sano To 60-Day IL

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The Twins announced to reporters today, including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, that Miguel Sano has been transferred to the 60-day injured list after they “found something” on the MRI on his knee. His roster spot went to Jake Cave, who was selected to the big league club. The Twins also designated Aaron Sanchez for assignment, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com, whose roster spot when to the recently-acquired Michael Fulmer. In a third pair of transactions, Jharel Cotton was designated for assignment to make room on the roster for Jorge Lopez, acquired in an earlier trade, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic.

Sano, 29, has been a fearsome slugger in the Minnesota lineup since his debut in 2015. He has 162 home runs and a career batting line of .234/.326/.382, wRC+ of 115. However, this year has gone about as poorly as could have been imagined, as Sano began the year with a .093/.231/.148 line through 17 games before suffering a knee injury. He recently returned from a lengthy stretch on the injured list, getting into three more games before landing back on the IL again July 30. He will now be unable to return until 60 days from that date, which would be late September, raising the possibility that his season could be done.

If that’s the case, that could end his time with Minnesota. As part of an extension signed prior to the 2020 campaign, the Twins hold a $14MM option over his services for 2023 with a $2.75MM buyout. Based on his lost season and the Twins getting quality first base production from Jose Miranda and Luis Arraez, they might just opt for the buyout.

As for Cave, 29, he was outrighted at the end of the last season but has been mashing in Triple-A this year. In 84 games on the season, he has 14 homers and a batting line of .273/.370/.509, wRC+ of 131. With Byron Buxton nursing a minor injury, Cave will compete with Nick Gordon, Kyle Garlick and Mark Contreras for playing time on the grass.

As for Sanchez, 30, he was selected to the roster just yesterday to make a spot start and has quickly been dispatched. With the Twins acquiring Tyler Mahle today, the rotation is back to full strength, featuring Mahle, Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. Sanchez also made seven starts for the Nationals earlier this year before getting DFA’d, clearing waivers, electing free agency and signing a minor league deal with the Twins. Should he clear waivers again, he would have the right to elect free agency once more.

As for Cotton, 30, he’s bounced on and off the Twins’ roster all season, with this being his third DFA of the year. In each of the previous two instances, he cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to the minors. In 35 MLB innings this year, he has a very nice 2.83 ERA, but without the underlying numbers to back it up. His 29.5% ground ball rate, 21.5% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate are all worse than league average. As such, all of the advanced pitching metrics feel he deserves worse than that ERA.

Twins Place Max Kepler, Miguel Sano On 10-Day Injured List

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The Twins announced that outfielder Max Kepler and first baseman Miguel Sano have been placed on the 10-day injured list.  Kepler has a toe fracture, while Sano is dealing with left knee inflammation.  In corresponding moves, outfielder Mark Contreras was called up from Triple-A and the Twins selected the contract of infielder Tim Beckham from Triple-A, while Bailey Ober was moved to the 60-day IL to create a 40-man roster spot for Beckham.

Kepler hasn’t played since he was hit by a pitch on July 24, and his IL placement is retroactive to the 27th.  While he hasn’t been on the field, Kepler has been taking part in limited baseball activities and even running drills, so it is possible he might only miss the minimum 10 days if he continues to show good progress (or if the fracture doesn’t continue to limit his ability to run).

It has been a curious year for Kepler, who has hit .244/.344/.390 over 337 plate appearances, good for an above-average 113 wRC+.  However, between a wealth of excellent Statcast metrics and a .361 xwOBA, Kepler is actually underachieving compared to what he “should” be hitting based on his advanced numbers.  For the third straight season, opponents are deploying shifts against Kepler almost every time he steps to the plate, which has largely neutralized much of Kepler’s hard contact.

Still, Kepler has been a very productive player overall, between his still-solid batting numbers and his excellent right field glove.  His absence will further hamper a Minnesota outfield that has already been shorthanded by Byron Buxton’s lingering knee issues, as Buxton has been getting a lot of DH time rather than his customary spot in center field.  The left-handed hitting Contreras will fill Kepler’s role to some extent, as the Twins will now be juggling Buxton, Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff and reserves Contreras, Gilberto Celestino, and Kyle Garlick around the three outfield spots.

Sano was only just activated from the 60-day IL earlier this week, making it troubling that he has already been sidelined again by issues with his surgically-repaired knee.  His latest injury actually occurred when Sano was on his minor league rehab assignment, as Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park) that Sano hurt his knee while sliding in his last rehab game.  An MRI is scheduled for Sano on Monday.

Sano underwent his surgery in early May, and has only played in 20 games this season, posting a measly .345 OPS over 71 PA.  There was some thought that the Twins might move on from Sano entirely given that he now seems like the odd man out on the roster, yet this latest IL placement will hold off any decisions on that front.  If Monday’s MRI reveals bad news, it could mark the end of Sano’s 2022 season, and quite likely his Minnesota tenure — the Twins will very likely buy out (for $2.75MM) their $14MM club option Sano for the 2023 season.

Beckham signed a minor league deal with the Twins in February, and he might now be in line for his first taste of MLB action since 2019.  The former first overall pick didn’t play anywhere during the canceled 2020 minor league season, and spent all of 2021 in the White Sox organization with their Triple-A affiliate.  Beckham has played all over the infield and also seen some time as a left fielder in his career, so he’ll provide the Twins with some utility depth off the bench.

Twins Reinstate Miguel Sano

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The Twins announced Tuesday that they’ve reinstated first baseman Miguel Sano from the 60-day injured list. Left-hander Danny Coulombe was moved from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, while outfielder Gilberto Celestino was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul to open a spot on the active roster.

Sano, 29, got out to the worst start of his career with the Twins earlier this year when he began the season with a calamitous .093/.231/.148 batting line through 17 games and 65 plate appearances. That dismal start came in spite of a modest improvement in his still sky-high strikeout rate (32.3%, down from 34.4% in 2021) and a huge 52.9% hard-hit rate. Sano hit just one home run and did not have a multi-hit game on the season prior to injuring his knee during a walk-off celebration. He eventually underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus and missed all of May and June in addition to most of July.

Because he’s in the final season of a three-year, $30MM contract and because the Twins have received strong production from prospects Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda in his absence, it looked for some time like Sano might not have a roster spot waiting for him when he returned. However, Sano decimated minor league opponents during his rehab assignment, hitting .333/.422/.795 with five home runs and three doubles through just 45 plate appearances. He drew six walks, punched out a dozen times and even swiped a base along the way.

That showing was enough to get Sano another opportunity despite the slow start, and it can’t hurt his cause that the now-optioned Celestino has faded after a blistering start to the season. The 23-year-old Celestino has been operating primarily as a fourth outfielder anyhow, and his last multi-hit effort came back on June 14. In 57 plate appearances since that time, he’s hitting just .148/.193/.222. Celestino still provides speed off the bench and elite defense across the outfield, so he can still provide value even if he’s not hitting. For now, however, it’ll be utilityman Nick Gordon serving as the primary backup to Byron Buxton in center field.

Sano is back in the Twins’ lineup today, but the former cleanup hitter has been dropped all the way to ninth. With Miranda hitting .313/.358/.531 in 137 plate appearances since his last recall from the minors and Kirilloff slashing .301/.339/.456 in 112 plate appearances since his own latest recall, Sano’s grasp on the Twins’ first base gig appears tenuous at present.

Both Kirilloff and Miranda are capable options at first base, and with Buxton, Max Kepler and Kyle Garlick in the outfield, plus Gio Urshela as an option at third base, both Kirilloff and Miranda could be used as regular options in a rotation between their respective positions and the DH spot. Sano’s case is aided by the fact that catcher Ryan Jeffers is out six to eight weeks after fracturing his thumb, pushing Gary Sanchez from frequent DH to starting catcher, but the fact remains that the Twins have options in the event that Sano’s struggles continue. With the guaranteed portion of his contract drawing to a close, it becomes more feasible that they could simply move on if he can’t right the ship.

All that said, the Twins would be hard-pressed to find a bigger lineup upgrade than what a healthy and effective Sano can bring to the table. Sano’s .223/.316/.466 batting line from the 2021 season isn’t exactly dominant, but that includes a similarly disastrous start to the one through which he labored earlier this year. From June 4 onward — coincidentally or not, right around the time MLB sent its infamous memo regarding pitcher usage of Spider Tack and other foreign substances — Sano batted .251/.330/.503 with 21 homers and 21 doubles in a span of 373 plate appearances.

The Twins hold a $14MM club option on Sano for the 2023 season — which comes with a $2.75MM buyout. It’s hard to see that option being picked up as things presently stand, but a huge few months from the slugger could change the equation.

Coulombe’s move to the 60-day injured list is largely a formality. He first hit the injured list with a hip impingement on May 11, returned for a day in late May, and went back on the 15-day IL with a recurrence of that same hip issue the very next day. He’s already been on the 15-day IL for for 60 days anyhow, so this switch doesn’t at all impact his ability to return if he gets back to a point where he’s medically cleared to do so. Coulombe, however, has yet to even begin a minor league rehab assignment. In 49 1/3 innings with the Twins dating back to 2020, Coulombe has a 2.92 ERA and a 45-to-19 K/BB ratio.

16 Impending Free Agents Off To Slow Starts At The Plate

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The Padres cut ties with Robinson Cano this morning, just as the Mets did before them. It was a tougher decision for the Mets, given the financial obligation they have toward Cano through the 2023 season. However, his lack of production and the presence of younger, better options forced the hand of both parties.

We’re coming up on a third of the way through the 2022 season, and it’ll become increasingly difficult for teams with struggling veterans in the Cano mold to continue trotting them out there. That’s especially true of players who are impending free agents. While fans can (and do) disagree with the thinking, a player like Aaron Hicks, whom the Yankees owe $30.5MM from 2023-25, will get a longer leash than an impending free agent due to that multi-year commitment. So while there are plenty of struggling veterans on long-term deals, those with the thinnest grasp on their current roster spots are those who’ll be off the books at season’s end anyhow.

With that in mind, here’s a look at some names to watch and, when applicable, some of the names behind them who could aid in pushing them out the door (all stats entering Thursday’s play):

Carlos Santana, Royals: I’m not sure anyone other than the Royals’ front office understands the thinking behind continuing to trot Santana out to the field at this point. The 36-year-old is hitting .161/.293/.250 through 147 plate appearances, and it’s not as though that enormous slump is an entirely new development. Santana hit just .214/.319/.342 while playing in 158 of 162 games for the Royals last year and .199/.340/.350 in Cleveland during the shortened 2020 season.

Santana’s very presence on the Royals is due to the team’s effort to return to win-now mode after a rebuild focused on drafting college arms. He signed a two-year, $17.5MM contract heading into the 2021 season but hasn’t been able to bounce back to the form that long made him one of the game’s biggest on-base threats and most underrated offensive performers.

Signing Santana might’ve been a “win-now” move, but it’s hard to argue that continuing to run him out there is in the Royals’ best interest. That’s doubly true with top prospects Nick Pratto and Vinnie Pasquantino mashing in Triple-A Omaha. Both are in the same first base/designated hitter mold as Santana, and both Pratto (55) and Pasquantino (61) rank prominently in Baseball America’s updated Top 100 prospect rankings. Pratto got off to a slow start but is hitting .246/.392/.483 over his past 148 plate appearances. Pasquantino burst out of the gates and hasn’t slowed down; he’s hitting .298/.392/.667 with 15 home runs in 204 plate appearances.

The Royals owe Santana the balance of his $10.5MM salary whether he’s on the roster or not, but he’ll start racking up incentives when he reaches 300 plate appearances.

Joey Gallo, Yankees: Gallo was one of the Yankees’ biggest trade-deadline additions in recent years, but he’s never found his footing in the Bronx. His status as a three-true-outcomes player is well-documented, but he’s trended more aggressively toward the least-desirable of those outcomes since donning pinstripes. Gallo has fanned in 38% of his plate appearances as a Yankee while seeing both his power and his walk rate dip. Since the Yankees acquired him, he’s batting .167/.295/.370.

Even with the short porch in right field, Gallo has only five home runs through 141 plate appearances this season. He’s also seen his average exit velocity, launch angle and barrel rate drop in 2022. Gallo is still making loads of hard contact when he hits the ball in the air, per Statcast, and perhaps that’s helping to keep him both in the lineup and on the roster. New York isn’t getting any real offense from Hicks, Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Kyle Higashioka, however. Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson are once again on the injured list. Anthony Rizzo had a massive April but is batting just .162/.274/.303 in his past 117 plate appearances. The Yankees’ AL East lead has begun to shrink, as the Jays have rattled off eight straight wins, and they can’t realistically count on Aaron Judge to carry the offense all season long.

Gallo doesn’t have a high-end outfield prospect breathing down his neck, but if he can’t get things going at the plate, the calls for change are only going to grow louder. He’s earning $10.275MM in his final arbitration season before free agency, and another club might view him as a change-of-scenery candidate with the hopes that he’ll be the position-player equivalent of Sonny Gray and thrive following a rocky stint in the Bronx.

Adam Duvall, Braves: Like Gallo, Duvall’s skill set and offensive profile were well established when the Braves opted to retain him via arbitration. He was coming off a 38-homer campaign, so there was never much doubt he’d be tendered a contract, but Duvall’s brand of huge power/bottom-of-the-scale OBP always left him with a pretty low floor should the power ever evaporate.

That’s been the case in 2022, as Duvall still isn’t walking or hitting for average, and he’s only slugged two homers on the season. Paired with a career-worst 31.9% strikeout rate, those troubling trends have resulted in a .191/.257/.272 slash for Duvall, who has also already been tasked with playing more center field in 2022 than he had in his entire career to date.

Atlanta has already called up Michael Harris II, one of the sport’s fastest-rising outfield talents, and former top prospect Drew Waters is at least putting together respectable, if unexciting results in Triple-A. The Braves have also tinkered with catcher William Contreras in the outfield. Duvall has been MLB’s second-worst qualified hitter, by measure of wRC+, and it’s fair to wonder how long the leash will be.

Miguel Sano, Twins: Sano isn’t technically a free agent at season’s end, but barring a Herculean push to finish the season, it’s nearly impossible to fathom the Twins picking up a $14MM option on him. To Sano’s credit, he hit quite well from June through season’s end (.251/.330/.503, 21 homers, 21 doubles in 373 plate appearances), but he looked absolutely lost at the plate in 2022 before landing on the injured list due to a torn meniscus. Sano hit just .093/.231/.148 in 65 plate appearances.

When Sano does return, he’ll come back to a retooled roster that has seen versatile Luis Arraez rake while picking up regular at-bats at first base. Former No. 1 pick Royce Lewis is getting looks at third base and in left field — though Lewis is on the 10-day IL himself now — and top outfield/first base prospect Alex Kirilloff is hitting well in Triple-A following his return from a wrist injury.

The Twins can keep Sano in Triple-A for 20 days on rehab assignment when he’s ready, and they may want to do just that to give him a chance to show he can recapture some of his late 2021 form. But the clock on Sano’s three-year, $30MM deal is running out, and the first-place Twins have plenty of options to fill out the lineup. None of them have Sano’s raw power — almost no one in MLB does — but the big man’s ongoing contact issues tend to lead to protracted slumps like the one he slogged through earlier this year. If he can’t turn it around quickly upon his return, it’d be difficult to justify playing him over Arraez, Kirilloff and others.

Enrique Hernandez & Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox: Hernandez was a revelation in 2021 when he smacked 20 homers, hit .250/.337/.449, and delivered all-world defense in center field. But as good as year one of his $14MM contract was, the second and final campaign of that deal has been nightmarish. Hernandez is hitting .203/.269/.340 with a career-low hard-hit rate and exit velocity. He’s still playing great defense in center and helping shoulder the second base workload, but the offensive deficiency is glaring.

That’s also somewhat true of Bradley Jr., who returned to Boston after one ill-fated season in Milwaukee. To Bradley’s credit, he has actually picked up the pace quite a bit, hitting .291/.328/.491 since mid-May, but that surge still only brings his overall season line to .227/.284/.353. If Bradley can sustain some of this production, he’ll surely hang onto his roster spot, but it’s hard not to look at young Jarren Duran’s .309/.391/.523 output in Triple-A and start thinking of ways to insert him into the big league lineup. Duran struggled in his debut last year but is still a touted young prospect whom the Sox envision as a long-term building block.

Hernandez is earning $8MM this season. Bradley is on a $9.5MM salary and is still owed an $8MM buyout on a mutual option for the 2023 season.

Yuli Gurriel, Martin Maldonado & Jason Castro, Astros: Gurriel won a batting title and looked like one of the game’s best pure hitters in 2021, but he’s started his 2022 season with a woeful .223/.261/.361 performance through 176 plate appearances. His strikeout rate is up about four percentage points, while his walk rate has halved and his hard-contact numbers have plummeted. Gurriel is also chasing more pitches off the plate (36.4% in 2022, 29.8% in 2021) and making contact on pitches out of the zone at a far lower rate (74.5% in 2022, 81.9% in 2021).

Houston’s catchers, meanwhile, have been the least-productive in baseball. Maldonado has never been much of a hitter but is batting only .133/.208/.239 this season. Castro hasn’t even been able to match that, batting .104/.228/.146. If catching prospect Korey Lee weren’t enduring immense struggles of his own in Triple-A, a change might’ve already been made.

It seems unlikely that the Astros would cut bait on Gurriel, who’s been a prominent presence and one of the team’s most productive hitters since signing more than a half-decade ago. A reduced role is something they’ll have to consider if he can’t right the ship, however. The catchers seem far more vulnerable, and there figure to be some prominent names available on the trade market (Willson Contreras, most notably). That Houston is leading the AL West by 5.5 games despite having the least-productive catchers (29 wRC+) and 29th-ranked offensive output from its first basemen (74 wRC+) is both a testament to their pitching and indictment on the play of their divisional opponents thus far.

Gurriel is being paid $8MM in 2022, while Maldonado is earning a $5MM salary and Castro is at $3.5MM.

Andrew McCutchen, Brewers: Milwaukee added McCutchen on a one-year, $8MM contract this offseason with the idea of installing him as their primary designated hitter. McCutchen tormented the Brewers during his early years with the Pirates, which included an NL MVP win, but he’s hitting .214/.263/.312 to begin his tenure in Milwaukee. Even McCutchen’s typically outstanding production against lefties has gone up in smoke this year, as he’s managed a .196/.224/.391 slash against them.

Despite McCutchen’s ineffectiveness, the Brewers are leading the Majors in homers (70) and sit fifth in total runs scored (238). But if McCutchen, who’s hitless in six straight and has been 73% worse than average at the plate since a return from the Covid list (27 wRC+ in 57 plate appearances), can’t begin to show some signs of life, the Brewers could be on the lookout for some offensive help as the Aug. 2 trade deadline draws nearer.

Robbie Grossman & Tucker Barnhart, Tigers: Between Grossman, Austin Meadows and Victor Reyes, the Tigers have an entire outfield on the injured list. Underwhelming play from young options like Daz Cameron, Akil Baddoo and Derek Hill will probably extend Grossman’s leash, but he was hitting a career-worst .199/.311/.241 in 167 plate appearances prior to landing on the IL due to ongoing neck soreness. Grossman has a solid track record, but the Tigers will also want to get a look at top prospect Riley Greene soon, and they’re giving Kody Clemens an opportunity after a nice start down in Toledo.

Behind the plate, the Tigers are probably content with Barnhart’s glovework and leadership. There was talk of a potential extension after he was acquired, but a .229/.263/.257 start might have tempered that. Backup Eric Haase isn’t hitting enough to force a change, and the Tigers’ Triple-A catchers are journeymen Dustin Garneau and Ryan Lavarnway. They have a well-regarded prospect at Double-A in Dillon Dingler, but Barnhart shouldn’t be in imminent danger of losing his spot at this time.

Maikel Franco, Nationals: Franco is probably only in this everyday role because Carter Kieboom suffered an elbow injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery, but he hasn’t done much with his latest opportunity. The former Phillies, Royals and Orioles third baseman is hitting .258/.284/.374 (82 wRC+) through 208 plate appearances. The Nats have an ultra-thin farm system without much in the way of third base options in the upper minors, and they’re clearly not winning anything this year anyhow. That might keep Franco safe, but if an even semi-interesting option presents itself on the waiver wire, there’s little reason not to take a look.

Corey Dickerson, Cardinals: Prior to the 2022 season, Dickerson had never been worse than five percent below-average with the bat in any full year (by wRC+). That’s all but certain to change now, as the typically steady lefty has posted an uncharacteristic .183/.238/.215 slash in 101 plate appearances. For a lifetime .283/.327/.488 hitter who was coming off a solid 2021 campaign, it’s a rather astonishing swoon.

Dickerson has been in a platoon with Albert Pujols at DH for the most part, logging only 110 innings on defense in the outfield corners recently due to injuries elsewhere on the roster. He’s also only on a one-year, $5MM contract, so if he can’t find his swing in the near future, it’s easy to see the Cards giving more at-bats to Pujols’ long-shot chase for 700 home runs and to young standout Juan Yepez. Dickerson is safe for now with both Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson on the injured list, but he needs a hot streak sooner than later.

Mike Zunino, Rays: Zunino’s career-high 33 home runs from a year ago feel like a distant memory, as he’s off to a .147/.193/.294 start in 109 plate appearances in 2022. He’s still drawing excellent marks for his defensive contributions, which the Rays value heavily, but Zunino isn’t even hitting against lefties, whom he’s handled well throughout his career — particularly in recent seasons.

Backup Francisco Mejia isn’t hitting much himself, going just 6-for-42 without a walk over the past month or so. Were he producing at the plate, it’d be more tempting for Tampa Bay to significantly reduce Zunino’s playing time. The Rays do have 25-year-old Rene Pinto mashing in Triple-A, and he’s made his big league debut already this year. As with the Astros, however, the Rays are in firm win-now mode and entered the season with World Series aspirations. If the in-house options aren’t performing up to par, the trade market beckons.

Austin Hedges, Guardians: Hedges has never hit and has always been one of the game’s premier defensive players, so his 2022 season is nothing new. Still, a .155/.223/.282 output from your primary catcher is just difficult to stomach, no matter how strong the defense is. Veteran backup Luke Maile has hit well in a tiny sample of 35 plate appearances, but he’s a career .208/.264/.317 hitter himself.

Prospect Bryan Lavastida got a brief MLB cup of coffee in April and is hitting .225/.330/.360 so far in Triple-A. His performance will bear monitoring, because if the Guardians are intent on pulling into the playoff picture, Hedges’ production might be too light to overlook. And if they end up selling at the deadline, Hedges could draw interest from a team seeking a glove-first backup option — which could open a door for Lavastida.

Twins Select Devin Smeltzer, Option Alex Kirilloff To Triple-A

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3:31PM: Alex Kirilloff was optioned to Triple-A to make room for Smeltzer on the active roster. Kirilloff has hit only .172/.226/.172 over 32 plate appearances, and also spent close to three weeks the IL due to wrist inflammation. To open a 40-man spot for Smeltzer, Miguel Sano is being placed on the 60-day IL.  Sano underwent knee surgery on May 3, and the Twins’ expectation is that Sano will return at some point this season, though the 60-day placement sidelines him until July at the earliest.

2:36PM: The Twins are going to select the contract of Devin Smeltzer today, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com, with the lefty getting the start in tonight’s game against the Guardians. Smeltzer is not currently on the club’s 40-man roster, meaning a corresponding move will be required to open a spot for him.

Acquired from the Dodgers in the Brian Dozier trade, Smeltzer had a solid MLB debut with the Twins in 2019. In 49 innings over six starts and five relief appearances, he put up a 3.86 ERA. His 18.8% strikeout rate was below average, but he limited walks at a rate of 5.9%. In the shortened 2020 season, he took a step backward, logging a 6.75 ERA in 16 innings. Last year, elbow issues limited him to just 4 2/3 innings and led to his outright in November.

The 26-year-old seems to have gotten things back on track this year, as he’s been healthy and starting in Triple-A. Over five starts, he’s thrown 21 innings with a 3.86 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate.

For the Twins, as recently as a week ago, it seemed they were nearing a starting pitching surplus. Sonny Gray came off the injured list and joined Chris Archer, Chris Paddack, Josh Winder and Joe Ryan in the rotation. It seemed like the club would have to make a tough choice on how to assign the pitching duties once Dylan Bundy and Bailey Ober returned from the injured list. However, a few days later, Paddack left his start with elbow inflammation and is now on the 60-day IL, possibly heading towards Tommy John surgery.

While Paddack’s injury has created the need for Smeltzer to step in, it’s possible that it could just be a spot start. After today, the club plays four more before an off-day on May 19. However, after that, the club will play 18 games in 17 days, due to a doubleheader on May 31. Smeltzer is out of options, meaning the club will need to keep him on the roster if they hope to use him again during that stretch.

The recuperation of Bundy and Ober will likely play a role in determining Smeltzer’s status. Bundy is currently on the COVID IL and will need a spot on the 40-man roster when he returns. He has cleared COVID protocols but is still feeling some of the effects of the illness, per Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Ober went on the IL two weeks ago due to a groin strain but has been throwing bullpens recently, per Park.

Miguel Sano To Undergo Surgery To Repair Torn Meniscus In Knee

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Twins first baseman Miguel Sanó is undergoing surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his injured left knee, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic). There is no timetable for his return, although Joe Trezza of MLB.com tweeted yesterday that Sanó would be expected back this season even if he were to go under the knife.

It’s a disappointing development for the burly slugger, who turns 29 next week. Sanó apparently tweaked his knee during a win over the Tigers on Tuesday. That kept him out of the lineup until Saturday; Sanó tried to play through the injury during that contest against the Rays, but he was removed mid-game because of continued soreness. The team placed him on the injured list yesterday with what they termed a sprain, and the meniscus tear represents further bad news.

Sanó had gotten off to a rough start even before the injury. He’s hitting just .093/.231/.148 in 17 games. He’s striking out at a 32.3% clip that’s nearly ten percentage points higher than the league mark, but that’s par for the course for him. More significant is that he had just one extra-base hit (a home run) over 65 trips to the plate. Yet he’d barreled up five balls and was still consistently hitting the ball hard, according to Statcast. That seemed to indicate Sanó would find more power production as the weather improved, but that’ll be put on hold for an indeterminate amount of time.

Throughout his seven-plus years in Minnesota, Sanó has been an up-and-down performer. He’s shown the ability to serve as a middle-of-the-order masher at times, including a 34-homer season in 105 games for the 2019 team branded as the “bomba squad.” Yet he’s also had his share of ruts as the strikeouts have mounted. His 2021 campaign was something of a microcosm of his overall tenure. He limped to a .196/.279/.426 line through the season’s first half before quietly turning in a .250/.343/.504 performance after the All-Star Break.

Sanó is playing this season on a $10.58MM salary. Minnesota has a $14MM option on his services for 2023 (with a $2.75MM buyout). Sanó needs a strong showing at the plate to convince the front office to pick up that tab. Between his slow start and injury absence, that looks to be trending towards a buyout, although the club will evaluate his recovery and post-surgery production before making that call.

Without Sanó, it seems the Twins will move forward with a combination of Luis Arraez and top prospect Jose Miranda at first base. Arraez has more experience at each of second base, third base and in left field, but he’s not a particularly strong defender at any of those spots. His contact-oriented approach makes for an atypical fit at first base (and a complete 180° turn from the shape of Sanó’s production), but Arraez has been an above-average offensive player throughout his career. Miranda was called up for his big league debut when Sanó went on the IL; he can also play multiple positions but is regarded as a bat-first infielder himself.

Twins Place Miguel Sano On 10-Day Injured List, Surgery Under Consideration

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MAY 2: Surgery is on the table for Sano, who officially went on the IL this morning with a left knee sprain, according to Baldelli (Helfand link). The Twins will make the determination of whether a procedure is necessary this week. If Sano were to go under the knife, he’d still be expected to return this season, tweets Joe Trezza of MLB.com.

MAY 1: The Twins will be placing first baseman Miguel Sano on the 10-day injured list, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of The St. Paul Pioneer Press).  Sano is dealing with a sore left knee.  Catcher Jose Godoy will also be optioned to Triple-A, so the Twins will get their roster from 28 players down to 26 by tomorrow’s deadline.

Sano has missed four of Minnesota’s last five games with the injury, suffered during the game-ending rundown in the Twins’ 5-4 walkoff win over the Tigers on Tuesday.  After sitting out three games, Sano was the starting first baseman Saturday but was removed from the game during the seventh inning.

A timeline isn’t yet known for when Sano might be able to return to the lineup, but this absence could serve as something of a reset to his 2022 season.  Sano has been ice cold at the plate, hitting only .093/.231/.148 over his first 65 plate appearances.  As horrific as those numbers look, Sano has also been rather unusually unlucky, with only a .121 BABIP and a .196 wOBA far below his .344 xwOBA.  Sano’s xwOBA is actually above the league average, and his hard-contact numbers (hard-hit ball percentage, barrel percentage) and walk rate have all been excellent.

Though this indicates some hope Sano can rebound once he returns from the IL, the Twins will be shorthanded at first base in his absence.  Alex Kirilloff would normally take over the corner but Kirilloff is himself injured, currently on a minor league rehab assignment for a wrist issue.  If losing Sano and Kirilloff wasn’t enough for the Twins, Kyle Garlick also left today’s game due to calf tightness, so Minnesota might also have a gap to fill in the outfield depth chart.

Luis Arraez had never played first base prior to this season, but the utilityman has been filling in for Sano this week and looks like Minnesota’s top choice as the temporary replacement.  Baldelli also suggested that third baseman Gio Urshela or catcher Gary Sanchez could get some work at first base.  Urshela has played a handful of games at the position during his career, while Sanchez has played three games as a first baseman during his pro career (and none since 2017).

Twins Promote Jose Miranda

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The Twins announced this morning they’ve recalled infield prospect Jose Miranda and left-hander Jovani Moran from Triple-A St. Paul. In corresponding moves, first baseman Miguel Sanó and outfielder Kyle Garlick were placed on the 10-day injured list. Righty Cole Sands and catcher José Godoy were optioned to St. Paul as part of the culling of active rosters from 28 to 26.

The most notable move in the sequence is the promotion of Miranda, who is headed to the big leagues for the first time. Minnesota selected the 23-year-old onto their 40-man roster last offseason, but he began the year on optional assignment back to St. Paul. The right-handed hitter is off to a bit of a slow start, posting a .256/.295/.442 showing through his first 90 plate appearances.

That’s likely not of huge concern to the Twins, as Miranda tore the cover off the ball in the minors last season. The Puerto Rico native began the year with Double-A Wichita. Miranda hit .345/.408/.588 through 47 games with the Wind Surge, earning a bump to St. Paul by the end of June. He picked up right where he left off at the minors’ highest level, closing out the year with a .343/.397/.563 showing in 373 plate appearances for the Saints.

That high minors domination positioned Miranda as a near-term MLB option for the Twins while elevating his prospect status. Over the offseason, each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, Keith Law of the Athletic and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN slotted Miranda among the back half of their Top 100 prospects. Reports unanimously praised his combination of bat-to-ball skills and raw power, although all four outlets suggested he’s a fringy defender at best at the hot corner. Miranda has also posted low walk rates throughout his time in the minors, although that’s in large part due to the bat control for which he’s lauded. Given his ability to put the bat on the ball, he’s not one to work many deep counts, keeping both his walk and strikeout totals down.

With Sanó headed to the IL, Miranda looks likely to play a multi-positional infield role for the time being. All 14 of his defensive outings this season have come at third base, but he also had a fair bit of run at second and first base last year (in addition to briefer stops at shortstop and in left field). Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco are locked in up the middle in Minnesota, with Gio Urshela and bat-first utilityman Luis Arraez the top options at the corners. Miranda could work his way into the corner infield/DH mix, at least until Sanó returns.

It’s unclear how long Sanó will be sidelined after he hit the IL due to left knee soreness last night. The team announced it today as a sprain, with the placement retroactive to May 1. Garlick, meanwhile, suffered a right calf strain.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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