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Reds Offense, Not The Bullpen, Responsible For Struggles In Close Games

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The Reds bullpen crumbled down the stretch in 2019, but confidence remains high in their core group of high-impact relievers, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

They formed the league’s best unit over the first half of the season, but the pressure never let up as the Reds finished with more one-run margins than any other team in the game. 57 one-run games plus another 31 games with a two-run margin made the difference in an up-and-down season for Cincinnati. Interestingly, President of Baseball Ops pretty clearly assigned blame in these games to the offense, defending the bullpen in saying, “When they did let things get away, I think they were, at times, unfairly scrutinized because I really think when the offense had chances to provide separating runs, get big leads, jump out, we just didn’t get quite enough of that, taking pressure off the pitching at times.”

The bullpen finished middle-of-the-pack by ERA, FIP, and fWAR, though admittedly closer to the top than the bottom. Despite all the close games, the unit still finished 25th in innings pitched, a good indicator for the starting rotation. All things considered, the Reds enter the offseason feeling pretty good about Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, and Robert Stephenson making up the core of their relief unit.

[RELATED – Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds]

All signs point to another eventful winter for the Reds, but it’s the offense where Williams is focusing his attention. Despite some breakout power in the forms of Eugenio Suarez and Aristides Aquino, the Reds finished 25th in the majors in runs scored. Their offense as a whole finished with just an 87 wRC+, also ranking 25th in the MLB. They have a ways to go to join the league’s elite in this regard: 11 teams finished with 100+ weighted runs created plus, 8 of whom made the postseason. The Cardinals 95 wRC+ was the lowest of any team in the postseason.

Central Notes: Moustakas, Boxberger, Lorenzen, Rupp

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The Brewers will press ahead with their unconventional plan for Mike Moustakas. Skipper Craig Counsell says the long-time third baseman will indeed line up at second base in Milwaukee, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel was among those to tweet. The move from the hot corner to second isn’t particularly common. And it’s all but unprecedented for a player to be handed the keys to an up-the-middle defensive position that he has never before played professionally. (Moustakas does have minimal experience at shortstop dating to his first two seasons as a pro.) The Brewers obviously feel the tools are there to allow Moustakas to succeed — once he has been positioned optimally, at least.

More from the central divisions:

  • Royals reliever Brad Boxberger was kept out of spring action with an unspecified leg issue, Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star reports (Twitter link). Manager Ned Yost would say only that the hurler had “tweaked” something. Fortunately, Boxberger was able to get back on the bump last night and now seems on track to be ready for the start of the season. Boxberger, who is earning $2.2MM on a one-year deal with the Royals, has been expected to serve as his new club’s closer.
  • The Reds trotted out Michael Lorenzen as a two-way player in Cactus League action today, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes. Dual deployment has long been anticipated, though it was — and remains — unclear how frequent he’ll be called upon to line up in the outfield. Lorenzen was in center field today. The 27-year-old hit a robust .290/.333/.710 with four home runs in 34 plate appearances last year, so it’s understandable that the club would like to see what he can do with more opportunities.
  • Baseball decisions can be tough to understand at times. Cameron Rupp’s recent history presents a bit of a puzzle, as Chris McCosky of the Detroit News explores. The Tigers’ newly added backstop played in at least half of the Phillies games annually from 2015 through 2017, producing just-below-average, power-driven offense. Rupp’s framing fell apart in 2017, but he had been a decent performer in that metric previously and otherwise was not a problem behind the dish. Despite being relatively youthful and continuing to turn in solid work at the plate, though, Rupp never got a call to the big leagues last year and is already on to his second organization this spring.

An earlier version of this post mistakenly indicated that Boxberger had not yet returned to game action.

Reds Pitcher Michael Lorenzen Preparing For Possible Outfield Role

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Reds right-hander Michael Lorenzen is working out extensively as an outfielder this offseason in hopes of finding his way into an expanded, hybrid role in 2019, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The organization appears to be open to the possibility of utilizing Lorenzen on the grass, though it’s as yet unclear how likely it is that he’ll ultimately do so in the regular season.

Lorenzen, 27, pitched to a 3.11 ERA with 6.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9 and a 50.2 percent ground-ball rate in 81 innings of relief last season. Lorenzen also emerged as a legitimate offensive weapon off the bench. A two-way star at Cal State Fullerton where he pitched and played center field, Lorenzen went 9-for-31 and belted four homers as a pinch-hitter for Cincinnati last season. That strong showing included an incredible run where he hit three pinch homers in a week’s time (video link), capped off by a grand slam.

First and foremost, Lorenzen is an important set-up/swingman option for a Cincinnati club that’s hoping to make strides in the season to come. He has his hands full already. Despite missing nearly two months to open the 2018 season, he ended up throwing 81 innings in 45 appearances, including three starts at the tail end of the season.

If Shohei Ohtani can do handle two-way duties, then perhaps Lorenzen should be given a shot. Stepping into the outfield defensively, though, would definitely represent a significant additional burden and avenue for risk. Ohtani did play the field in Japan, but was only utilized as a DH upon coming to the majors. That option isn’t available to the Reds, so they’ll need to put Lorenzen in the field at times if they want him to accrue any significant number of plate appearances.

Ultimately, it’s not clear whether it will prove all that useful for the Reds to utilize Lorenzen as a part-time outfielder. Beyond concerns with the possible impact on his pitching, the club is already fairly deep in outfield options (Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Phil Ervin). And there’s good reason to be skeptical of how Lorenzen will fare if exposed to MLB pitching more regularly, though he has certainly shown enough to make it tantalizing to see more. It’s anyone’s guess how he’ll look defensively, though Lorenzen certainly seems athletic enough to handle himself just fine.

It may be that the most sensible outcome, at least early on, would be to take advantage of the flexibility on a limited basis. There are all kinds of interesting game-situation strategies that new skipper David Bell might contemplate. If nothing else, Lorenzen could still see scattered pinch-hitting opportunities as he did last year. If it proves necessary, or Lorenzen proves worthy, then perhaps a few starts would even be appropriate.

One thing that seems clear is that Lorenzen himself is on board with the possibility of a new job description. He spoke about his preparation in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio), voicing not only a willingness but an eagerness and desire for more time at the plate in 2019. Lorenzen joked that he’s “begged” the Reds for an expanded role and sounds energized by the possibility of getting some chances at the plate and in the field next season.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
  • The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
  • The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
  • The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
  • The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.

Earlier Updates

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Agency Changes: Lorenzen, Verdugo

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Here’s the latest on players makes changes to their representation.  For a full listing of player/agent pairings, be sure to check out MLBTR’s Agency Database.

  • Reds right-hander Michael Lorenzen is now being represented by CAA, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets.  Lorenzen changes his agency just a week before the deadline for players an teams to exchange arbitration figures.  MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Lorenzen to earn $1.9MM next season as the righty goes through the arb process for the second time.  The hard-throwing Lorenzen has been a workhorse out of the Reds’ bullpen the last two seasons, tossing several multi-inning performances and even three starts while racking up 164 innings.  If the two sides can’t agree to a deal prior to the January 11 deadline, Lorenzen’s situation could make for an interesting hearing, given the increasing value of non-closer relievers in the sport and the arb process’ traditional importance on saves as a reliever’s key statistic.
  • Dodgers outfield prospect Alex Verdugo has switched his representation to the MVP Sports Group, Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown reports (via Twitter).  Verdugo entered 2018 as a consensus top-40 prospect in the sport, and received a bit more big league playing time with the Dodgers, giving him 52 MLB games and 111 plate appearances over the last two seasons.  There’s room for a larger role for Verdugo in 2019 with Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp now out of the picture in the L.A. outfield, though the 22-year-old has also been prominently mentioned in several trade rumors.  The Tigers and Indians have both reportedly shown interest in Verdugo, though it’s probably safe to imagine that just about every club that talks trades with the Dodgers at least checks in on Verdugo’s availability.

NL Notes: Kershaw, Nats, Harper, Reds, Girardi

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The Dodgers clinched a playoff berth with a win over the Giants on Saturday, but Los Angeles still isn’t a lock to participate in a postseason series. Entering play on Sunday, the Dodgers and Rockies were tied atop the NL West. In the event Colorado wins the division, which may come down to a one-game tiebreaker between the teams on Monday, LA would have to get through the wild-card one-off on Tuesday in order to reach the NLDS. Ace Clayton Kershaw wouldn’t start that do-or-die contest, given that he just tossed five innings Saturday. So, because Kershaw could opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM left on his contract after the season, it’s possible Saturday’s start will go down as his last with the Dodgers. Kershaw was asked about his opt-out Saturday, but as you’d expect, his focus is on the playoffs. “I mean – I can’t really give an answer because I don’t know what’s ahead,” he told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “I know we’ve got the playoffs ahead. It’s a good distraction. If we weren’t making the playoffs, I probably would have put a lot more thought into where we’re going and what I’m doing personally. But right now, I can’t do it. There’s not enough room up there (in his mind) for both.”

More on a couple other NL clubs..

  • This season will end up as a major disappointment for the Nationals, who entered as expected contenders but will miss the playoffs under first-year manager Dave Martinez. Nevertheless, Martinez and his staff are safe going into the offseason, general manager Mike Rizzo told Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and other reporters on Sunday. It’s anyone’s guess whether Martinez will continue to manage superstar outfielder Bryce Harper, a pending free agent, in 2019. Unsurprisingly, though, Rizzo wants Harper to remain in the fold. “Of course he’s in our plans,” Rizzo said of Harper (Twitter link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post).
  • It’s a near certainty the Reds will have Joe Girardi on their wish list as they search for a full-time manager, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (video link). If Cincinnati does pursue Girardi, the former Marlins and Yankees skipper informed Rosenthal he would consider taking the job. “I want to manage again. I’m interested in everything,” said Girardi, whom the Yankees parted with last fall after a long and successful run in New York. On paper, the rebuilding Reds and Girardi may not look like a match, though it’s worth noting they expect to spend more in 2019 and could attempt to start pushing toward contention.
  • The Reds’ 2019 manager will have to decide how to deploy righty Michael Lorenzen, a reliever who could vie for a starting role next season. Lorenzen started 21 times as a rookie in 2015, but he moved to a full-time relief job the next season. He has since made three starts, all of which came this season, and ended his year on Saturday with 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Pirates. The 26-year-old then said (via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) that he wants to return to starting on a full-time basis. “It’s not a secret that it’s something I want to do,” said Lorenzen, who added he’ll “work extremely hard” in the offseason to bolster his chances. Lorenzen was a valuable member of the Reds’ staff in 2018, as he posted a 3.11 ERA/4.18 FIP over 81 innings. He also did his best offensively to serve as the NL’s answer to Shohei Ohtani, hitting an excellent .286/.333/.750 with four home runs in 31 trips.

Quick Hits: Turner, Kela, Lorenzen, Reds, Vazquez

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Justin Turner and the Dodgers received a scare when the star third baseman was hit on his left hand and wrist area by a pitch in the third inning of today’s 17-4 win over the Cardinals.  Fortunately for all parties, Turner remained in the game until the eighth inning, when he was removed just because the Dodgers had their big lead.  Turner missed the first six weeks of the season after another hit-by-pitch fractured that same wrist during Spring Training, and he told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (Twitter links) and other media that today’s ball found the same spot on his body.  “Could have been worse if I wasn’t wearing the pad,” Turner said, referring to the protective gear he has worn since the initial injury.  X-rays were negative on Turner’s hand and wrist, so it looks like another injury has been avoided.  After a bit of a slow start that might well have been caused by his DL stint, Turner has been on fire over the last several weeks and is now hitting .318/.415/.531 over 366 PA on the season.

Some more from around baseball…

  • The Pirates have shut reliever Keone Kela down for the season, as per a statement released to media (including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).  Kela, acquired from the Rangers at the July trade deadline, has a 2.93 ERA over 15 1/3 innings for the Bucs but he hasn’t taken the mound since September 3.  He has thrown 52 total innings for Pittsburgh and Texas this season, which GM Neal Huntington cited as the reason for the shutdown.  “This was primarily based on his high leverage workload this year compared to the previous two seasons,” Huntington said in the statement.  The decision was made to give Kela “an optimal amount of rest and recovery to be ready in spring training 2019.“
  • Michael Lorenzen will start the Reds’ game against the Brewers on Tuesday, interim manager Jim Riggleman told Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer and other media.  Lorenzen has pitched exclusively as a reliever from 2016-18, posting solid numbers as a setup man and multi-inning reliever out of the Reds’ bullpen.  He has often expressed an interest in returning to starting pitching, however, and was stretched out as a starter last Spring Training before some poor numbers and a shoulder injury necessitated a return to the bullpen.  “But we are looking at ’19 and who is going to be our starters,” Riggleman said.  “We have an idea who some of them will be, but we will look at Mike here a little bit.  It’ll be a very small sample, but we’ll get a little feel for it.”
  • In other Reds news, president of baseball operations Dick Williams confirmed to reporters (including John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that Riggleman will receive an interview for the full-time managerial position.  Besides that, Williams was short on details about the managerial search, other than to say that no interviews have yet taken place, and the Reds wouldn’t be publicly commenting on which people were or weren’t candidates.  Fay speculates that the team will stick with Riggleman if they want an experienced “traditional pick” of a manager, though it remains to be seen what sort of more outside-the-box names (if any) could be considered.
  • “There could be a big market for” Christian Vazquez should the Red Sox make him available in trade talks, rival executives tell the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo.  This scenario would’ve been seemed unthinkable last March, when the Sox signed Vazquez to a three-year, $13.55MM extension that seemingly made him Boston’s long-term answer behind the plate. 2018 has been essentially a lost season for Vazquez, however, as he has hit only .213/.256/.298 over 239 PA and missed just under eight weeks with a fractured pinky finger on his throwing hand.  Offense has never been a big plus for the defensively-stellar Vazquez, though with Sandy Leon and Blake Swihart behind the plate, Cafardo wonders if the Sox could move Vazquez to address other needs.

Reds Place Raisel Iglesias On Disabled List

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The Reds announced this afternoon that they’ve placed closer Raisel Iglesias on the 10-day disabled list due to soreness in his left (non-throwing) biceps. Fellow righty Austin Brice is also headed to the DL thanks to an upper back injury. In their place, the Reds activated righties Michael Lorenzen and Tanner Rainey from the disabled list. The announcement didn’t include any expected timeline for either player’s absence.

Iglesias, 28, struggled with his control early in the season but has corrected that issue lately and looked to be in excellent form since late April. He did issue a pair of runs and suffer his second blown save in his most recent appearance, but he’s gone 10 outings without issuing a walk and pitched to a 1.74 ERA with 12 strikeouts in that time. Overall in 21 2/3 innings this season, he’s notched a 2.08 ERA with 11.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9 and a 36.2 percent ground-ball rate.

Brice, meanwhile, has been scored upon in four of his past past five appearances, causing his ERA to balloon up to 4.67 despite largely promising K/BB and ground-ball tendencies. In 25 innings of relief this season, he’s averaged 9.4 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 with a 50.7 percent ground-ball rate. He’s been too prone to the long ball, though, already serving up four homers on the season. That’s been an ongoing trend for Brice in the big leagues, as he’s yielded a dozen big flies in just 71 2/3 frames at the game’s top level.

[Related: Cincinnati Reds depth chart | MLB closer depth chart at Roster Resource]

It’s not yet clear who’ll step into the ninth inning for the Reds with Iglesias out of action. For all of the Reds’ flaws, they actually have several high-quality options in the ’pen, where Amir Garrett, Jared Hughes and Dylan Floro have all worked to a sub-2.00 ERA in 2018. Garrett has very arguably been the team’s most dominant relief arm, averaging better than 10 strikeouts per nine innings and notching a 1.67 ERA in his 27 frames this far. The veteran Hughes has shown the best control of the bunch and comes with the most late-inning experience in the big leagues, having spent several seasons as a setup man for the division-rival Pirates. Lorenzen, meanwhile, was the top setup man to Iglesias last season but has yet to pitch in the Majors this season due to a shoulder strain that caused him to open the season on the disabled list.

Reds Place Anthony DeSclafani On 60-Day DL, Select Contract Of Cliff Pennington

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The Reds announced a slew of moves Thursday in setting their Opening Day roster, including the placement of right-hander Anthony DeSclafani on the 60-day DL due to a left oblique strain. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to Cliff Pennington, whose contract has been selected.

Additionally, the Reds placed left-hander Brandon Finnegan and righties David Hernandez, Michael Lorenzen and Kevin Shackelford on the 10-day disabled list. Meanwhile, closer Raisel Iglesias will open the year on the paternity list. The Reds have recalled lefty Cody Reed and righty Jackson Stephens from Triple-A.

The oblique issue is the latest in a long series of injuries that has kept DeSclafani off a big league mound since the 2016 season. An oblique issue in 2016 and a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in 2017 have combined to limit the talented young righty to just 123 1/3 innings since the beginning of the 2016 season. When healthy, of course, DeSclafani has looked every bit the part of a quality young long-term piece; in 308 innings with the Reds in 2015-16, DeSclafani worked to a 3.74 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over the life of 51 starts.

The 33-year-old Pennington spent the past two seasons with the Angels, where he batted a combined .232/.287/.320 through 405 plate appearances. Offense has never been a calling card for Pennington, a switch-hitter with a career .243/.310/.341 hitter through 3108 plate appearances, spanning 10 seasons. But, he’s a versatile defender capable of providing average or better glovework at shortstop, second base and third base, which makes him a nice utility option to have on hand — particularly for a Reds team that has yet to see Jose Peraza establish himself as a big leaguer.

Ohio Notes: Lorenzen, Antonetti, Upton, Mesoraco

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Here’s the latest from both Buckeye State teams…

  • Reds right-hander Michael Lorenzen suffered a Grade 1 strain of the teres muscle near his throwing shoulder, and will be kept from throwing “for several days,” manager Bryan Price told media (including the Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Fay).  Lorenzen’s injury isn’t as severe as the similar issue that kept Brandon Finnegan out of action for half of the 2017 season, though it does seem unlikely that Lorenzen would be ready to go by Opening Day.  The 26-year-old was attempting to win a spot in Cincy’s rotation but struggled to an 8.38 ERA over 9 2/3 Spring Training innings.  Between those poor results and now this injury, Lorenzen is sure to resume his old role as a late-inning weapon out of the Reds bullpen.
  • The Indians don’t have much payroll on the books beyond the 2019 season, but president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti tells MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand not to expect the team to make any splashy signings next winter.  “That’s not the reality of our team-building,” Antonetti said.  “We are one of the smallest markets in professional baseball….We’ve had incredible support from our ownership in which we’ve spent well beyond our revenues as we’ve gone through this competitive period.  But we can’t build teams through free agency.  Our success model is we need to draft and acquire players that are younger and help provide the right environment for them to grow and develop because that’s going to be the nucleus of our team.  We’ll use free agency to complement that group, but not to build that group.”  The Tribe is poised to exceed the $100MM payroll mark for the third straight season (all record highs for the organization) in pursuit of a World Series, with the Edwin Encarnacion signing standing out as an uncharacteristic move for the smaller-market team.  Any future spending isn’t likely to reach nearly the heights of 2016-18, however, and it could be more internally-focused, such as trying to sign in-house players (i.e. Francisco Lindor) to extensions.
  • After releasing Melvin Upton Jr. yesterday, the Indians could potentially re-sign the outfielder to another minor league deal if he can’t find a contract elsewhere, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes.  Manager Terry Francona said that the team chose to let Upton know prior to his opt-out date that the veteran wouldn’t be making the team, so Upton could have extra time to explore his options.  Cleveland already has several outfielders ahead of Upton on both the MLB and minor league depth charts, though there are enough question marks at the position that Upton could provide some extra experience at Triple-A.
  • In another piece from John Fay, Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco said that he is finally feeling healthy after three injury-ravaged seasons.  “I feel great.  I don’t have to worry about health.  I work on my swing, work on my catching, play ball,” Mesoraco said.  After breaking out with a huge 2014 that earned him a four-year, $28MM extension after that season, Mesoraco has since played in just 95 total games due to hip, shoulder, and foot injuries.  The lack of durability cost Mesoraco the starting job as the Reds catcher, but he is prepared to contribute anyway he can as Tucker Barnhart’s backup.
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