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MLBTR Podcast: A Live Reaction To The Jordan Montgomery Signing, Ohtani’s Interpreter, And J.D. Martinez Joins The Mets

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Luis García Jr, Lance McCullers Jr, and Kendall Graveman of the Astros are likely out, at the very least, until mid-June.  How come none of these guys are on the 60-day injured list?  Do you seen the Astros moving them there and if so, when? (49:15)
  • Do you think it’s possible that the league begins to follow the Angels and Rangers footsteps and call up recent draft picks as soon as they show any signs of potential? Also, do you think it is at all possible that teams start to call up teenagers? (52:25)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Rangers Sign Michael Lorenzen

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March 22: The Rangers have now announced the signing. Right-hander Jacob deGrom was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

March 20: The Rangers are in agreement with free agent starter Michael Lorenzen on a one-year, $4.5MM contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (X link). The deal, which is pending a physical, contains another $2.5MM in performance bonuses. Lorenzen is a client of CAA Sports.

Aside from Jordan Montgomery, Lorenzen was arguably the best starter still available. The right-hander had reportedly waited out the market in search of a multi-year pact. That evidently didn’t materialize, as he instead inks a one-year deal for the third straight offseason. After securing respective $6.75MM and $8.5MM contracts in the last two winters, he winds up taking a reduced rate for the 2024 season.

That’s certainly not what he’d been hoping for on the heels of the first All-Star nod of his career. Lorenzen appeared on his way to a two- or potentially three-year pact midway through the year. He turned in strong numbers over 18 starts with the Tigers, working to a 3.58 ERA across 105 2/3 innings. A sub-20% strikeout rate raised a question as to whether he could sustain that kind of run prevention, but he nevertheless was one of the better rental starters available at the deadline.

Detroit flipped Lorenzen to the Phillies for second base prospect Hao-Yu Lee. His initial two starts with the Phils couldn’t have gone better. He tossed eight innings of two-run ball in Miami during his team debut. In his first home appearance at Citizens Bank Park, he no-hit the Nationals. That he tossed 124 pitches in that game wasn’t ideal, but skipper Rob Thomson gave him the leeway to complete that historic outing.

Things quickly went downhill after that appearance. Nine days later, Lorenzen faced the same Washington lineup at Nationals Park. He was tagged for seven runs in 3 1/3 innings. That kicked off a stretch of six consecutive appearances in which he allowed at least four runs. That included a relief outing on September 19 in which Lorenzen retired one of seven batters faced against the Braves.

To his credit, Lorenzen finished the regular season with a trio of scoreless relief outings. He’d already fallen down the leverage hierarchy by that point though. The Phils used him just twice in their run to the NLCS. He worked 2 2/3 scoreless frames in mop-up situations during the postseason.

That Lorenzen moved to the bullpen wasn’t a surprise in itself. The Phils acknowledged at the time of his acquisition that they could eventually squeeze him out and go with a five-man staff of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sánchez. Yet there’s no denying the last six weeks didn’t go anywhere close to plan. He allowed 30 runs (27 earned) with an 18:15 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 30 1/3 innings.

Whether that finish was more a reflection of Lorenzen wearing down after the no-hitter or about his middling peripherals catching up to him, it was a sour conclusion to what was a solid season. His first 20 starts were strong enough that his overall line was right around league average. Lorenzen finished the year with a 4.18 ERA through a personal-high 153 innings. He’d posted a similar 4.24 mark over 97 2/3 frames with the Angels in 2022, his first season as a starter since his 2015 rookie campaign.

While last year’s 17.8% strikeout percentage and 9.4% swinging strike rate were each below average, he trimmed his walks to a modest 7.5% clip. He mixed five pitches, headlined by a four-seam fastball that sat a little above 94 MPH on average. Lorenzen’s aggregate production looked like that of a strike-throwing #4/5 starter. While that’s perhaps not the most exciting profile, it explains why his camp thought a multi-year deal should’ve been on the table. Within the past two offseasons, players like Drew Smyly ($19MM), Jordan Lyles ($17MM), and KBO returnee Erick Fedde ($15MM) secured two-year pacts.

It’s impossible to know whether that would’ve been attainable earlier in the offseason, but the market hasn’t been favorable for the players who remain unsigned deep into Spring Training. Lorenzen’s one-year deal trails those inked by Alex Wood ($8.5MM), Martín Pérez ($8MM), Jakob Junis ($7MM) and James Paxton ($7MM) earlier in the winter.

On the plus side, the 32-year-old gets an opportunity with a contender. He joins the defending World Series winners to help a rotation that’ll be without each of Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom for a couple months. Texas still has a solid front four of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney. Left-hander Cody Bradford struggled in a swing role last season but has pitched well this spring. GM Chris Young said last weekend that Bradford earned the fifth starter role, but it’s possible he’ll be nudged back into relief at some point.

Lorenzen might not be ready to step right into the Texas rotation. His extended free agent stay kept him from pitching competitively this spring. He has been throwing on his own, reportedly tossing 70 pitches earlier in the week, yet that’s not a perfect substitute for game action. Bradford may still take a turn or two through the rotation before moving to a swing role as the top depth option in case anyone ahead of him suffers an injury.

The signing pushes the team’s player payroll to the $224MM range, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re around $248MM in luxury tax commitments. Texas is set to pay the competitive balance tax for a second consecutive season. That means they’re taxed at a 30% rate on spending between $237MM and $257MM. Adding Lorenzen comes with another $1.35MM in CBT commitments, pushing the overall guarantee to roughly $5.85MM.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Yankees Still Looking To Add Starting Pitching

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The Yankees were frequently connected to Blake Snell while he was a free agent, but the lefty reportedly agreed to a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants last night. Though Snell is off the board, the Yanks are still in the market for starting pitching, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

It’s understandable that the Yanks are still on the hunt for arms. They were often connected to Snell even before the recent news that ace Gerrit Cole is going to miss significant time due nerve inflammation and edema in his elbow.

Though the desire to add Snell seemed to be real, it appeared that the competitive balance tax was too much of an obstacle. The Yankees are set to be third-time payors of the tax and are already over the fourth and final threshold, meaning they face a 110% tax on any further spending. Snell didn’t find the long-term deal he was looking for, reportedly turning down a six-year, $150MM offer from the Yanks, and pivoted to a short-term pact with a high average annual value. Had the Yankees matched the $31MM AAV Snell got from the Giants, they would have had to pay $34.1MM in taxes as well.

That concern seemingly had them leaning towards a trade for Dylan Cease, since he’s still in his arbitration years and making just $8MM this year. But the Yanks missed out there as well, with Cease eventually getting shipped from the White Sox to the Padres. Heyman adds that they haven’t made much traction with other trade targets, such as Jesus Lúzardo of the Marlins.

But the need for reinforcements is apparent when looking at the rotation without Cole. Nestor Cortes went on the injured list due to a rotator cuff strain on two occasions last year and finished the season with a 4.97 ERA in 63 1/3 innings. Carlos Rodón dealt with a forearm strain and hamstring strain and posted a 6.85 ERA in his 64 1/3 innings. Marcus Stroman had a great first half but issues with his hip and rib cartilage pushed his ERA up to 3.95 by the end of the year.

Those three have each had much better results in the past but they are sort of wild cards now after their frustrating campaigns. Backing them up will be Clarke Schmidt, who had a 4.64 ERA last year. There would still be one spot open, with pitchers like Luke Weaver, Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter and Will Warren potential options. Weaver has finished three of the last four seasons with an ERA of 6.40 or higher. Gil underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2022 and missed most of the last two years. Neither Beeter nor Warren have made their major league debuts yet.

The Yankees will understandably be open to upgrading that group, especially for a season in which they are clearly committed to winning. They sent five players to the Padres to get one season of Juan Soto, and two of Trent Grisham, and will pay Soto $31MM plus taxes in the process.

Opening Day is next Thursday but the club still has options, with various pitchers still unsigned thanks to this slow offseason. The club has been connected to pitchers like Michael Lorenzen and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom remain unsigned. Free agency also features guys like Mike Clevinger, Johnny Cueto and Noah Syndergaard. Earlier this month, reporting suggested Montgomery was still holding out for a seven-year deal but the other guys won’t require significant expenditures to sign.

With the start of the season so near, there would naturally be concern about a pitcher getting stretched out after missing so much of Spring Training. It seems Lorenzen has been getting himself ready on his own, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who relays footage from Lorenzen’s agent of the righty throwing. Rosenthal reports that the righty recently threw 70 innings, getting up and down four times. He would likely still require some official game action but it doesn’t seem as though he would require a traditional six-week ramping up period.

Lorenzen has reportedly been seeking a two-year deal while also receiving interest from clubs like the White Sox and Mets.

Latest On Michael Lorenzen’s Market

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With Opening Day less than two weeks off, Michael Lorenzen stands as arguably the #3 starting pitcher on the free agent market. The White Sox and Yankees have reportedly shown recent interest in the 32-year-old righty, but he evidently has yet to find a deal to his liking.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Lorenzen has declined contract offers in the $5-7MM range. It’s not clear which teams made those proposals or how recently Lorenzen’s camp passed. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported last week that the 6’3″ hurler had been holding out for a two-year pact.

It’s therefore not surprising that Lorenzen turned down what were presumably one-year offers at fairly modest salaries. He’s coming off his first All-Star nod and tallied a career-high 153 innings between the Tigers and Phillies last season. He looked on his way to a strong multi-year pact by the middle of August. After no-hitting the Nationals on August 9, he carried a 3.23 ERA in 20 starts. Lorenzen was never likely to maintain that kind of run prevention unless he improved upon a modest 19.4% strikeout rate, but few would have anticipated how badly his final six weeks would go.

Lorenzen allowed 30 runs (27 earned) in his final 30 1/3 frames. His already modest strikeout percentage dropped another seven points, while his previously strong walk rate jumped to 10.3%. The Phillies moved him to relief at the end of the regular season and didn’t lean heavily on him during the playoffs. That poor finish has seemingly led to a disconnect between how teams project Lorenzen and the kind of contract he expected to command heading into the winter.

Despite the rough conclusion, Lorenzen’s season ERA sat at a respectable 4.18 in 29 outings. His camp presumably viewed recent two-year guarantees inked by the likes of Ross Stripling ($25MM), Drew Smyly ($19MM), Jordan Lyles ($17MM) and KBO returnee Erick Fedde ($15MM) as comparison points. Innings eaters Kyle Gibson ($13MM) and Lance Lynn ($11MM) signed one-year pacts early this offseason that pushed past eight figures.

The offers which Lorenzen declined value him below those other pitchers. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, five starting pitchers have signed one-year guarantees between $3MM and $9MM this offseason. Each of Wade Miley, Alex Wood, Martín Pérez, James Paxton and Jakob Junis landed in the $7MM – $8.5MM range.

Lorenzen himself has fallen in that category in each of his previous two free agent trips. He signed for $6.75MM with the Angels over the 2021-22 offseason. Last year, he inked an $8.5MM deal with the Tigers. Lorenzen has sought to move past that tier on the heels of a stronger platform season than the ones that preceded his last two free agent stints. It’s not known if that might’ve been achievable earlier in the offseason, but it seems he’s facing a tight market as many teams are at or near the payroll with which they’re willing to open the season.

Yankees Interested In Michael Lorenzen

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The Yankees have “checked in” on free agent right-hander Michael Lorenzen, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The righty’s market may be heating up with just two weeks to go until Opening Day, as he was also connected to the White Sox yesterday.

The Yankees were already in the market for starting pitching, having been connected to Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery throughout the winter. Their need for rotation help only grew this week when ace Gerrit Cole was sidelined by an elbow issue. Cole and the Yankees are still gathering information but it seems like he will miss a month or two of the season even in a best-case scenario.

Whether Cole is ultimately destined for a brief or a lengthy absence, it’s a huge blow to the club’s rotation. Up until this issue popped up, he was the rocksteady leader of an otherwise shaky group. Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman all battled injuries last year to varying extents.

Stroman was having a great year prior to his injury woes, as he had a 2.96 ERA at the All-Star break, but hip and rib cartilage injuries led to diminished results and missed time, as he finished the year with a 3.95 ERA in 136 2/3 innings. Rodón and Cortes ended up having fairly similar years in terms of limited innings and poor results. Rodón battled a forearm strain and hamstring strain as he posted a 6.85 ERA in 64 1/3 frames. Cortes twice went on the IL due to a rotator cuff strain in his left shoulder and finished the campaign with a 4.97 ERA in 63 1/3 innings.

There’s tons of bounceback potential in that trio, as Stroman has a 3.65 ERA in his career while having reached 179 innings four times in his career. Rodón was an ace over 2021 and 2022, posting a 2.67 ERA in 310 2/3 innings in that time. Cortes had a 2.61 ERA in that same two-year stretch, though in a lesser workload of 251 2/3 innings.

If all three are able to get back to their previous forms, the rotation could be in good shape without Cole, but that’s a lot for the Yanks to gamble on. They are heavily committed to competing in 2024, as they gave up five players to get one year of Juan Soto. They also got Trent Grisham from the Padres in that deal, but Soto’s 2024 season was obviously the highlight for them. In addition to the talent they gave up, they are paying Soto a $31MM salary, plus the taxes incurred as a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax.

Even in an ideal situation where Stroman, Rodón and Cortes are all in good form, there’s still the back end of the rotation to think about. Clarke Schmidt will likely be taking one spot after he put up a 4.64 ERA last year. That’s probably fine for a #5 guy but the fact that the Yankees have been consistently connected to free agents suggests they would prefer to knock Schmidt down to #6, but he’s instead been bumped up to #4 for as long as Cole is out.

Current options to take a spot behind Schmidt would include Luke Weaver, Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gómez or Will Warren. Weaver has posted an ERA of 6.40 or higher in three of the past four seasons. Gil missed most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. Gómez has literally two innings of MLB experience while Beeter and Warren have none.

It’s a less than ideal group and it’s understandable that the club is interested in bolstering it. They’ve long been connected to marquee free agents like Snell and Montgomery but signing either of those guys would be especially costly. The Yanks are above the fourth and final tier of the CBT and are set to be a third-time payor, meaning any additional spending comes with a 110% tax bill. Even if Snell or Montgomery could be talked down to a $20MM annual salary at this late stage of the offseason, the Yanks would be looking at paying $22MM in taxes on top of that this year.

That situation would be lessened with Lorenzen, as he has a far more limited track record as a starter than those two. The Reds kept him in relief for most of his career but he sought out a return to starting when he reached free agency ahead of the 2022 season. He signed a one-year, $6.75MM deal with the Angels and was able to toss 97 2/3 innings, missing a couple of months with a shoulder strain and finishing the year with a 4.24 ERA.

It wasn’t an elite performance but he held his own and pushed up his annual workload. He then signed an $8.5MM deal with the Tigers for 2023 and took another step forward. He logged 105 2/3 innings with Detroit over 18 starts, with a 3.58 ERA in that time. He was traded to the Phillies and his first two starts for his new club were excellent. He allowed two earned runs over eight innings against the Marlins and then followed that up with a no-hitter against the Nationals.

He tossed 124 pitches in that no-hitter and seemed to break down after that. He was sporting a 3.23 ERA at that time but then allowed 27 earned runs in 30 1/3 innings the rest of the way, getting bumped to the bullpen in the process.

His 4.18 ERA on the year might not look amazing but it’s possible he ran out of gas after pushing himself further than he had gone before. Even if his true talent is a mid-4.00 ERA guy, that can be useful for the Yankees this year. Cole may be back in a few months but other injuries are inevitable and Lorenzen would improve the depth by pushing everyone down a peg.

It was reported last week that Lorenzen was holding out for a two-year deal that hasn’t yet materialized. Whether he can get that pact or ultimately has to settle for a one-year deal, he’ll be looking at a lesser salary than Snell or Lorenzen and the Yankees would have less to worry about in terms of taxes. A hypothetical $10MM salary, just as an example, would lead to $11MM in taxes. That’s still $21MM for a backend starter but it’s perhaps preferable to committing far more money and many more years for someone like Snell or Montgomery.

The Yankees were reportedly leaning towards acquiring Dylan Cease in the wake of Cole’s injury, as Cease’s $8MM salary would be far more palatable to them than the Snell/Montgomery duo, but Cease was traded to the Padres yesterday. There are some theoretical trade candidates still out there, such as Shane Bieber of the Guardians and Jesús Luzardo of the Marlins. However, both the Guards and the Fish are dealing with significant rotation injuries and may be less inclined to further subtract from their pitching staffs at the moment.

Lorenzen has received interest from the Mets, Angels, Twins, Padres and Orioles at various points this offseason, but he remains unattached now in mid-March. The Sox trading Cease seems to have given them some interest in signing Lorenzen to replace his innings, in addition to the Yankees sniffing around due to Cole’s situation. The regular season starts next week with the Seoul Series featuring the Dodgers and Padres but the rest of the league starts the season on March 28, two weeks from today.

White Sox Showing Interest In Michael Lorenzen

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The White Sox have interest in free agent starter Michael Lorenzen, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The right-hander is arguably the third-best pitcher still on the open market behind Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.

Chicago’s link to Lorenzen comes at a time when trade speculation around staff ace Dylan Cease has been rekindled. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported on Tuesday afternoon that the Yankees made a new offer for Cease. Not long after, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News and Rosenthal separately indicated the Rangers had interest.

It’s not clear if the Sox’s interest in Lorenzen is strictly contingent on a Cease trade. Yet dealing their projected Opening Day starter would leave Chicago looking for innings, if nothing else. Cease tallied a team-high 177 frames over 33 starts a year ago. He has taken a full series of turns through the rotation in each of the past four seasons. Moving a pitcher with that kind of reliability just weeks before Opening Day could leave the coaching staff struggling to piece together innings.

That’s particularly true given the rotation uncertainty behind Cease. KBO returnee Erick Fedde will occupy a spot in the rotation. The Sox will probably give a rebound opportunity to Michael Kopech, who allowed a 5.43 ERA over 30 appearances last season.

Michael Soroka hasn’t logged an MLB rotation workload in five years, largely on account of two Achilles tears. Chris Flexen allowed 6.86 earned runs per nine a year ago. Jared Shuster had an ERA approaching 6.00 over his first 11 big league starts. Touki Toussaint is better suited for a relief role. Rule 5 pick Shane Drohan will start the year on the injured list, while depth starter Jesse Scholtens underwent Tommy John surgery last month. Garrett Crochet is battling for a rotation spot but would be on an innings limit if he secures a starting job.

Even if the Sox held Cease and signed Lorenzen, they’d be unlikely to have an average rotation. Lorenzen would at least raise the floor and mitigate some concerns the Sox could have about getting through a full season, though. He tossed a career-high 153 frames between the Tigers and Phillies last year. His 4.18 ERA was right around league average but belies a season of extreme peaks and valleys.

Lorenzen earned an All-Star nod with Detroit. He pitched to a 3.58 ERA through 18 starts as a Tiger before being dealt to Philadelphia at the deadline. His first two outings as a Phillie were brilliant, highlighted by a no-hitter against the Nationals on August 9. After that point, he was among the least effective pitchers in the majors. Lorenzen allowed an 8.01 ERA over his last nine appearances. The Phils kicked him to relief and only called upon him twice in the postseason.

It’s possible he wore down as he neared the end of his first full, healthy season as a starting pitcher. That presumably played a role in the extent of his dismal finish, although he never looked likely to sustain the low-3.00s ERA he carried into the middle of August. During his successful run in Detroit, Lorenzen didn’t miss many bats or induce ground-balls at a particularly high clip.

The poor finish has apparently held up his market. Rosenthal reported last week that Lorenzen continued to hold out in search of a two-year contract. He has played the past two seasons on successive one-year guarantees valued at $6.75MM and $8.5MM, respectively. Cease is slated for an $8MM salary for the upcoming season. If signing Lorenzen were conditional on a Cease trade, it’d probably be around neutral from a financial perspective — particularly if Lorenzen does move off his ask for a two-year pact.

Michael Lorenzen Reportedly Seeking Two-Year Deal

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With spring training fully underway, right-hander Michael Lorenzen remains unsigned and in search of a new club for the upcoming 2024 season. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the 32-year-old righty has been searching for a two-year contract and is continuing to focus his efforts on landing a multi-year pact.

After a lengthy run as a setup man in the Reds’ bullpen, Lorenzen has signed one-year deals to work as a starter in each of the past two offseasons. He landed with the Angels on a $6.75MM deal in 2022 and pitched for the Tigers on an $8.5MM deal in 2023. After pitching a career-high 153 innings in 2023 and making his first All-Star team, it seems Lorenzen is prioritizing a multi-year pact so as to avoid yet another swift return to the market. That’s only natural, but at this stage of the winter, it’s far from a lock that one will present itself.

[Related: Let’s find a home for Michael Lorenzen]

Lorenzen started 25 games and made four relief appearances last season. He carried a 4.03 ERA through 87 innings into the All-Star break and was named the Tigers’ lone All-Star representative. His second half began with an otherworldly hot streak, and Lorenzen was flipped from Detroit to Philadelphia along the way, scarcely missing a beat early in his Phillies stint following the trade.

From July 6 through Aug. 9, Lorenzen piled up 40 2/3 innings with a 1.11 ERA and strong 31-to-12 K/BB ratio. He capped off his stellar run with an eight-inning, two-run gem against the Marlins and a 124-pitch no-hitter against the Nationals in his first start at Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park. That dropped his season-long ERA to a tidy 3.23, and while Lorenzen’s pedestrian 19.4% strikeout rate and tiny .244 average on balls in play didn’t fully support the extent of his success, he still looked well on his way to a possible multi-year deal in free agency.

His season took a sharp downturn from there. Perhaps wearing down as he pushed into uncharted territory in terms of workload, Lorenzen was rocked for 27 runs over his next 26 1/3 innings. The Phillies moved him to the bullpen in September, and although he finished with a handful of scoreless relief outings, Lorenzen’s 4.18 ERA was a far sight higher than it was at peak levels. His 17.8% strikeout rate was well shy of the league average, while his 7.5% walk rate and 41% grounder rate were closer to par among starters. But Lorenzen’s lack of whiffs, solid-but-not-elite command and susceptibility to home runs caused fielding-independent metrics to cast a far more bearish outlook on his season overall (4.46 FIP, 4.87 SIERA).

Lorenzen and his camp could perhaps make the claim to teams that he wore down or that his late-season struggles were fluky in nature, but teams could surely make similar claims that his torrid run from mid-July to mid-August doesn’t accurately represent his ability either. A two-year deal with a modest bump in AAV has always seemed plausible, though. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $22MM deal back in November. Just last offseason, we saw Ross Stripling ($25MM), Sean Manaea ($25MM), Drew Smyly ($19MM) and Jordan Lyles ($17MM) all sign two-year guarantees at or north of Lorenzen’s 2023 salary level — the first three with opt-outs included.

It’s plenty understandable if Lorenzen entered free agency thinking such a deal generally represented a floor of sorts for him. Perhaps early in the offseason, such offers would’ve been more attainable. Now, it’s increasingly difficult to convince teams to dole out guaranteed money on multi-year deals, particularly for starting pitchers who might not be able to fully build up in the remaining three and a half weeks of camp.

One thing that could yet help Lorenzen find a deal to his liking is the mounting slate of pitching injuries around the league as camps progress. The Red Sox may have lost their marquee offseason pickup, Lucas Giolito, for the season already. Giants fifth starter Tristan Beck won’t throw for eight weeks, and one of their top depth options is dealing with an elbow sprain. The Cardinals and Astros will begin the season with their would-be Opening Day starters on the injured list. The Blue Jays and Marlins are both dealing with possible injuries to notable starters.

Any one of those issues could cause the market for Lorenzen to pick up steam, but the longer he waits to sign, the more likely it is that he’ll need some minor league starts to ramp up before joining a big league rotation. We’re not necessarily to that point on the schedule just yet, but it’s getting close.

Latest On Mets’ Rotation Plans

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The Mets have remained in contact with representatives for some free agent starters, write Tim Britton and Will Sammon of the Athletic. Britton and Sammon report that right-hander Michael Lorenzen is one of the players with whom New York has touched base.

It doesn’t seem that’s reflective of strong current interest in the 2023 All-Star, however. The Athletic writes that the Mets may be keeping lines of communication open with starters in case they lose another member of their rotation to injury. Presumptive Opening Day starter Kodai Senga suffered a strain in his throwing shoulder last week and isn’t expected to be ready until sometime in May.

[Related: Let’s Find A Home For Michael Lorenzen]

Baseball operations president David Stearns said in the wake of the Senga injury that he didn’t anticipate it’d lead to increased urgency to add another starter. Even if that’s currently the case, losing someone else in the next couple weeks could change the calculus. David Peterson is also out into the middle of the season after undergoing an offseason labrum repair in his left hip.

At the moment, the starting five projects as Luis Severino, José Quintana, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser and one of José Butto, Tylor Megill or Joey Lucchesi. Waiver pickup Max Kranick also holds a 40-man roster spot. The Mets haven’t added any non-roster starting pitchers with MLB experience this offseason. It’s a reasonably deep group but one without a clear top-end arm while Senga is on the shelf.

To that end, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote yesterday that the Mets should consider pursuing Jordan Montgomery. The left-hander would knock everyone else down a notch on the rotation depth chart. Unlike Blake Snell, he wouldn’t cost the team a draft choice, since Montgomery was ineligible for a qualifying offer because of a midseason trade. It’s unclear how much his camp is still seeking. Montgomery was reportedly looking for a deal exceeding the seven years and $172MM which Aaron Nola secured early in the offseason. This deep into the winter, a four- or five-year pact appears much more likely.

The Mets still don’t appear willing to make that level of commitment. SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the Mets haven’t been involved on Snell or Montgomery. Martino adds that they’re unlikely to land a starter from the next tier of free agency (e.g. Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger) unless those players’ asking prices fall. Instead, Martino suggests they’re likely to explore depth additions who could be cut loose by another team at the end of Spring Training or would be amenable to a minor league pact.

New York would need to pay a 110% tax on any spending since they’re in the final tier of luxury penalization and have exceeded the threshold in three straight years. Signing Montgomery for $22MM annually, to use a hypothetical, would cost the Mets more than $46MM for the upcoming season after taxes — $22MM to the player, $24.2MM in CBT fees. Signing Lorenzen or Clevinger to a $10MM contract would cost the team $21MM.

Let’s Find A Home For Michael Lorenzen

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In case you hadn’t heard, there’s a group of high-profile free agents still available this offseason. They’re all represented by the same agency. A few people have pointed this out. There were four of them, and with Cody Bellinger’s new deal with the Cubs, there are now three. (Although J.D. Martinez still could be included to make it a quartet.) It’s garnered some mild attention around the baseball world.

So much focus has been placed on the “Boras Four” — and not just for the cringe nickname — that it’s overshadowed the fact that the free agent market still has a handful of good, quality big leaguers who can help teams. None rejected a qualifying offer. None are looking for nine-figure deals. None will require a team to commit money into the 2028 season or beyond.

Arguably most prominent among the remaining “second tier” of the free agent market at this juncture of the offseason is right-hander Michael Lorenzen. The 32-year-old righty is fresh off a career-high 153 innings in what was only his second full season as a starter after a six-year run in the Cincinnati bullpen.

Lorenzen isn’t an ace, but he started 25 games last year (plus four relief appearances) and made the All-Star team after a strong first half of the season with the Tigers. Part of his selection to the Midsummer Classic was by default — every team needs an All-Star representative, and the Tigers didn’t have many candidates — but that shouldn’t be used to downplay the strength of Lorenzen’s first few months of the season.

Heading into the All-Star Game, Lorenzen was sporting a solid but unspectacular 4.03 ERA in 87 innings. He’d started 15 games, fanned 19% of his opponents and issued walks at a tidy 5.7% clip. On a one-year, $8.5MM contract, he was providing fine value. Lorenzen pitched two-third of an inning in the All-Star Game, and then came roaring out of the second-half gates in what wound up being his best stretch of the season. The right-hander finished his first half with five shutout frames and began the second half with another 13 2/3 scoreless innings. By the time the Phillies traded for him in the run-up to the annual trade deadline, Lorenzen was sitting on a 3.58 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings.

By now, most fans and readers are familiar with Lorenzen’s first outings as a Phillie. He held the Marlins to a pair of runs through eight excellent innings in his team debut before blanking the Nationals in a 124-pitch no-hitter during his first appearance pitching in front of Philly fans at Citizens Bank Park. That pair of gems dropped his season ERA all the way to 3.23. From July 6 through Aug. 9, Lorenzen pitched 40 2/3 innings with a 1.11 ERA and 31-to-12 K/BB ratio.

And, just as most readers were likely already aware of those heights, the subsequent lows for Lorenzen have also been well-documented. In his followup to that no-hit gem, Lorenzen was rocked for six runs by that same Nationals offense, lasting just 3 1/3 innings. That commenced a calamitous stretch where he was torched for 27 runs over his next 26 1/3 innings. The Phillies were always likely to move Lorenzen to the bullpen for the postseason, given his experience in the role and the strength of the top of their staff, but they took that step several weeks early.

Lorenzen finished out the year with four shutout innings of relief across three appearances, but that did little to repair the damage of his disastrous late-August meltdown. He finished the season with a 4.18 ERA (4.46 FIP, 4.87 SIERA), 17.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, 41% grounder rate and 1.18 HR/9 — solid production for a fourth starter but nowhere near as enticing as his numbers looked with just six weeks to go in the season.

It’s worth wondering the extent to which Lorenzen simply wore down. He pitched only 110 1/3 innings the year prior between the big leagues and a minor league rehab stint with the Angels. He didn’t pitch more than 85 innings in a season from 2016-21. Ramping up to more than 150 frames on the year meant pushing his body to levels it hadn’t reached since his age-23 season back in 2015 — his rookie MLB campaign and final season as a starter before the Reds moved him to relief.

Despite the shaky finish, Lorenzen wound up with solid numbers on the season for a second straight year. He’s yet to make a full slate of 30+ starts in a season, but it’s not unreasonable to think he could do so in 2024-25 after building up to 153 innings in 2023. And dating back to his return to a rotation in 2022, he’s pitched 250 2/3 innings of 4.20 ERA ball with a 19% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 44.5% ground-ball rate. Lorenzen has averaged 94.6 mph on his heater, induced chases off the plate at a nice 32.6% clip and logged a 10.2% swinging-strike rate that’s not far below the 11.1% MLB average.

It’s not an ace profile by any means, but there are plenty of big league teams that are preparing to trot out an unproven and/or below-average arm in the fourth or fifth spot of their rotation. Plugging a roughly league-average starter into one of those spots makes sense for a number of clubs, and Lorenzen shouldn’t break the bank. He’s signed one-year deals for $6.75MM and $8.5MM over the past two seasons. A relatively modest two-year deal or even a one-year deal at a bump over last year’s salary doesn’t seem unreasonable.

For teams seeking rotation help but unwilling/unable to spend at the necessary levels to sign Snell or Montgomery, a short-term deal with Lorenzen could make sense. That’s not true of every team, however. Let’s take a run through the league and look for some potential fits.

Teams with generally full rotations

Each of the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Guardians, Mariners, Marlins, Phillies, Reds, Royals and Tigers have a largely set rotation featuring five veterans and/or young starters who are locked into jobs and unlikely to be displaced by Lorenzen.

Kansas City and Detroit might be stretches to land in this group, but for the Royals, signing Lorenzen would mean pushing Jordan Lyles and his $8.5MM salary to the bullpen or cutting him loose. Based on 2023 performances, they’d be better for it, but that’s a lot of money for the Royals to eat. The Tigers, meanwhile, have one rotation spot up for grabs after signing Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda this winter. They’d presumably like to leave that open for Matt Manning, Casey Mize and any other young arms to try to seize.

Top luxury payors who’d effectively owe double

Each of the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets are third-time luxury tax payors who’d be taxed at a 110% rate for any additional free agent signings. Even adding Lorenzen on a modest one-year, $9MM deal would mean taking on $9.9MM of taxes and put the total cost of signing at $18.9MM. The Mets recently saw Kodai Senga go down with a shoulder injury, but shelling out nearly $19MM for one year of Lorenzen doesn’t seem like a plausible outcome.

Rebuilding/non-competitive teams

The A’s, White Sox and Nationals are all at various stages of a rebuilding effort. Any of the three could have been a fit for Lorenzen earlier this offseason, but none seem likely now. The A’s signed Alex Wood and traded for Ross Stripling, giving them four set starters and a deep stock of unproven arms to vie for the fifth spot. The White Sox signed Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen in addition to acquiring Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster. They also didn’t trade Dylan Cease. Lorenzen might be an upgrade, but it seems like they’ve added what they’re going to add. The Nationals haven’t done anything to bolster a sub-par rotation beyond signing Zach Davies to a minor league deal, but GM Mike Rizzo has effectively declared his team out of the market for additional big league arms.

I’d argue that another non-competitive club, the Rockies, should absolutely be interested in signing Lorenzen, given the dearth of quality innings among their group of incumbents. But Colorado has shown minimal interest in spending this offseason, and convincing any pitcher to take a short-term deal at Coors Field is a tall order.

Payroll and/or luxury tax issues

  • Cubs: The Cubs’ re-signing of Bellinger put them around $3MM shy of the base luxury tax threshold. They wouldn’t face a major penalty for signing Lorenzen — likely just a couple million dollars or so — but they have four locked-in starters and a deep collection of arms vying for the fifth spot (e.g. Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, Javier Assad) with top prospect Cade Horton not far behind. They’re not a great fit.
  • Rangers: Despite last year’s World Series win, Texas has had an unexpectedly quiet offseason amid uncertainty regarding the team’s television broadcast outlook. The Rangers could clearly use another arm with each of Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle opening the season on the injured list. The team seems content to ride with an in-house quintet of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, Andrew Heaney and Cody Bradford while waiting on that veteran trio to return, though. GM Chris Young said earlier this month that he doesn’t foresee any further additions of note.
  • Rays: The Rays should be shopping in this tier for rotation help, given that they’re relying on a pair of injury-prone veterans (Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale), a converted reliever (Zack Littell) and a pair of talented but unproven prospects (Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley) to open the season. Shane Baz, once the game’s top pitching prospect, will be back from 2022 Tommy John surgery but on an innings limit. Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgery) will be back at some point in 2024 but perhaps not until the season’s second half. Getting to that point could be a challenge with the Rays’ current group, but Tampa Bay’s projected $99MM Opening Day payroll is (somehow) a franchise record as it is. There’s room to sign Lorenzen for two years on a backloaded deal (particularly if the Rays eventually trade Harold Ramirez and his $3.8MM salary), but their current financial outlay makes them a reach — even if there’s a clear need in the rotation.
  • Twins: The Twins have shown interest in Lorenzen but, like the Rangers, have scaled back their spending amid TV revenue concerns. After acquiring Manuel Margot yesterday, president of baseball ops Derek Falvey suggested he’s likely finished adding to the big league roster. The Twins have a decent starting mix with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Anthony DeSclafani and Louie Varland as it is. Signing Lorenzen would deepen the group, but an addition apparently isn’t viewed as an imperative so long as the current group remains healthy in camp.

Plausible fits

  • Angels: Perhaps their attitude toward Lorenzen is “been there, done that,” but the Halos have plenty of uncertainty with a rotation of Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning, rebound hopeful Tyler Anderson and the inexperienced Chase Silseth. They took a shot on Zach Plesac, but he has minor league options remaining. Jose Suarez is another option, but he’s also in need of a rebound. If owner Arte Moreno wants to continue his resistance to long-term deals for pitchers, the Angels could bring Lorenzen back without coming close to their franchise-record for payroll or to the luxury tax threshold.
  • Brewers: Gone are the days of the Brewers’ nearly unrivaled rotation depth. Freddy Peralta is back to lead a staff that also features a re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea. Newcomers Jakob Junis and DL Hall — acquired in the surprise late-offseason trade of Corbin Burnes — round things out. Lefty Aaron Ashby will vie for a spot, and prospect Robert Gasser isn’t far from the big leagues himself. But the Brewers lack some certainty in the rotation and project for a $109MM Opening Day payroll that’s modest even by their standards.
  • D-backs: Arizona already signed Eduardo Rodriguez to join Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt in the rotation. Between Ryne Nelson, Slade Cecconi, Tommy Henry and Corbin Martin, they have some depth for the fifth slot, but none of it is proven. The Snakes’ $143MM payroll will already be a franchise record by about $11MM, but if there’s room for one more addition, Lorenzen would solidify the final rotation spot on a win-now club that’s looking to follow up on last year’s surprise World Series bid.
  • Giants: The Giants’ rotation looked like a mess even before injury scares to presumptive fourth and fifth starters Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck. San Francisco is reportedly still in the mix to sign Blake Snell, so there’s clearly money left to spend. Right now, they’ll follow ace Logan Webb with top prospect Kyle Harrison, reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks, Winn and Beck — if the latter two are healthy. (Winn recently resumed throwing after experiencing nerve discomfort in his elbow; Beck left camp to be evaluated for a hand injury.) Frankly, they could stand to add one of Snell/Montgomery and Lorenzen.
  • Orioles: The acquisition of Burnes quelled some anxiety from O’s fans after an otherwise silent offseason on the starting pitching front, but there’s now concern elsewhere in the rotation, as No. 2 starter Kyle Bradish is trying to rehab a UCL strain in his pitching elbow. He wouldn’t be the first pitcher to avoid going under the knife after a UCL injury, but the overwhelming majority of such injury scares end in surgery. Meanwhile, John Means is behind schedule and likely to open the season on the injured list due to his own elbow troubles. Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann and Jonathan Heasley create some depth on the 40-man, but the Orioles are much deeper in high-end position player prospects than in pitchers. Baltimore has just $1MM on the 2025 books and is projected for a mere $96MM payroll. They should absolutely be looking for an addition of some sort, and they reportedly showed interest in Lorenzen before acquiring Burnes.
  • Padres: Another team that’s reportedly shown interest in Lorenzen, the Padres have cut payroll significantly and are now more than $20MM from the luxury threshold and nearly $100MM shy of their 2023 payroll. They only have two clear-cut, proven starters: Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Michael King, acquired in the Juan Soto trade, will fill the third spot in the rotation after a strong showing with the Yankees in 2023, but he’s never started more than nine games in a big league season. The other two spots are entirely up for grabs among a group of largely untested arms. There might not be a clearer on-paper fit, although…
  • Pirates: …if there is one, it might be in Pittsburgh. The Bucs will roll with recently extended Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales in the top spots of their rotation. Johan Oviedo had Tommy John surgery earlier this offseason. Last year’s No. 1 pick, Paul Skenes, should quickly ascend to the big leagues but that probably won’t happen until this summer. Bailey Falter, Quinn Priester, Jackson Wolf, Kyle Nicolas, Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras are all on the 40-man, but either lack MLB success or are (in the case of Falter and Contreras) are looking to put an ugly 2023 behind them. The Pirates have been talking to the Marlins about Edward Cabrera and other starters, and GM Ben Cherington has been open about his desire to further add to the rotation.
  • Red Sox: Not to be outdone in their need for rotation help amid a shaky collection of starters, Boston has been in a staring contest with Montgomery all winter. If he signs elsewhere or they deem the price too high, Lorenzen could easily fit into the budget of a team that’s nearly $60MM from its franchise record and not close to the luxury tax. Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello are set, but the combination of Nick Pivetta (who lost his rotation spot for a time in ’23), Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock lacks reliability. The Sox need quality innings, but ownership clearly put its foot in its mouth earlier this offseason with a “full-throttle” proclamation that has been followed up with payroll reduction and modest additions on the margins of the roster.

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If payroll weren’t an object, the Rays would join the Padres, Pirates, Red Sox, Giants and Orioles as the clearest fits for a solid, if unspectacular back-of-the-rotation arm like Lorenzen. Finances very likely are an issue for Tampa Bay, however, but any of those five other clubs — arguably in that order — should be able to find room to raise their rotation’s floor by plugging Lorenzen in at a price that won’t break the bank.

Angels Hoping To Add To Rotation

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The Angels are looking to add to their rotation and have been “mulling” whether to make a run at Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though Heyman adds that they’re more likely to go after a back-end guy like Michael Lorenzen. The club has been loosely tied to Snell and Montgomery earlier in the offseason but without anything seeming close or particularly viable.

The club’s current rotation projects to be fronted by some combination Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning. Options for the fifth spot include Chase Silseth, José Suarez and Zach Plesac. That competition also would have had Sam Bachman in it, but Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports that Bachman had arthroscopic surgery last fall and won’t be ready for Opening Day.

That rotation mix has talent but plenty of question marks. Detmers had a 3.77 ERA in 2022 but it jumped to 4.48 last year. Sandoval went from 2.91 to 4.11 while Anderson jumped from 2.57 to 5.43. Canning was healthy enough to get to 127 innings pitched last year but that was a new high for him, thanks to injuries and the pandemic. Suarez missed most of last year due to a shoulder strain. Silseth has just 81 innings of MLB experience and only 45 2/3 at Triple-A. Plesac’s ERA shot up to 7.59 with the Guardians last year. There was some bad luck in there but he was nonetheless passed through waivers and outrighted off the roster.

Given those question marks and the inevitable pitcher injuries that arise in a long baseball season, there’s plenty of logic in adding to that group. A run at Snell or Montgomery would be interesting, as there are reasons to doubt the possibility. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that the largest contract the Angels have given a starting pitching since the start of 2012 is the three years and $39MM they gave Anderson. That historical lack of spending on starting pitching and owner Arte Moreno’s recent comments about operating with a lower payroll this year would make it surprising to see the Angels suddenly splurge on Snell or Montgomery.

Even with a lower payroll, it’s possible they have some powder dry. They opened last year with an Opening Day payroll of $212MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and also flirted with the luxury tax line. This year, Roster Resource pegs them at $173MM, almost $40MM below where they were a year ago. Their CBT number of $188MM is almost $50MM below this year’s $237MM threshold. That could leave some wiggle room for them to make a notable signing while still having lowered their spending slightly.

Coming into the offseason, MLBTR predicted Snell for $200MM over seven years and Montgomery for $150MM over six. The fact they are still on the open market in mid-February suggests they may be having difficulty getting into that range, so perhaps there’s an opportunity for the Angels to make something work, despite their past resistance to long-term deals for starters.

Either would immediately become the best pitcher on the staff, if added. Snell is coming off his second career Cy Young victory, posting a 2.25 ERA with the Padres last year. He’s had his ups and downs but is obviously one of the best in the league when he’s throwing well. Montgomery has continued to build his innings totals and lower his ERA since returning from Tommy John surgery. He tossed 44 innings in 2020 with a 5.11 ERA, then got to 157 1/3 frames with a 3.83 ERA in 2021. He followed that up with 178 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball and then 188 2/3 innings with a 3.20 ERA last year, then adding another 31 postseason frames with a 2.90 ERA.

But signing someone like Lorenzen would be more the Angels’ style and they have, in fact, done it before. After years of being pushed to the bullpen by the Reds, the Halos gave Lorenzen a one-year, $6.75MM deal and let him try starting in 2022. It went reasonably well, as he made 18 starts and logged 97 2/3 innings with a 4.24 ERA.

He was able to parlay that into a one-year, $8.5MM deal with the Tigers and pushed himself even farther in terms of workload and results. He had a 3.58 ERA in 105 2/3 innings with Detroit before getting flipped to the Phillies. He made two excellent starts for his new club, the latter being a no-hitter, but seemed to run out of gas after that. After completing his no-hitter, he was sitting on a 3.23 ERA through 122 2/3 innings on the year. He was lit up the rest of the way and finished the season with an ERA of 4.18, but it seems possible that was a result of him pushing his innings tally into new territory.

MLBTR predicted he could secure a two-year, $22MM deal this offseason. He remains unsigned and is arguably the best starter in free agency apart from Snell and Montgomery. Unless the Angels plan to make a pivot and open themselves up to the idea of a mega deal for a pitcher, Lorenzen would be their best path to solidifying the rotation. Other notable remaining free agent starters are Mike Clevinger, Hyun Jin Ryu, Eric Lauer, Noah Syndergaard, Rich Hill, Zack Greinke and Johnny Cueto.

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