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Michael Harris II

NL East Notes: Braves, Mets, Phillies

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Braves manager Brian Snitker provided updates to reporters (including The Athletic’s David O’Brien) on outfielder Michael Harris II and right-hander Collin McHugh, both of whom went on the injured-list recently. Harris, who is struggling with back tightness, is steadily improving, though he wouldn’t be back in games yet even if he was on the active roster. Harris won the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2022 after slashing an excellent .297/.339/.514 in 114 games while playing excellent defense in center field, but was injured seven games into the season when he banged his back against the outfield wall making a catch against the Padres last week. The club has relied on Sam Hilliard in center while Harris is on the shelf.

Meanwhile, McHugh went on the injured list with shoulder inflammation on Thursday, but has resumed throwing and expects to be back with the Braves after a minimum 15-day stint on the IL. After a long stint as a swingman for the Astros, McHugh opted out of the shortened 2020 campaign before re-emerging as a dominant reliever for the Rays in 2021. His dominance continued in 2022 with the Braves as he posted a combined 2.09 ERA in 133 1/3 innings of work across those two seasons. When McHugh returns from the IL, he figures to key piece in the back of the Braves’ bullpen alongside A.J. Minter.

More from around the NL East…

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets could explore the market for additional catching options following a Omar Narvaez’s recent injury. Top prospect Francisco Alvarez was called up to replace Narvaez on the roster, and the club has expressed confidence in his ability to fill in for the next two months while Narvaez is expected to be out. Nonetheless, Sherman notes that the club is keeping an eye out for upgrades over their current depth options at catcher, Michael Perez and Nick Meyer. Robinson Chirinos and Austin Romine are among the catchers currently unsigned on the free agent market, though the Mets could certainly also explore the trade market if they’re interested in adding catching depth.
  • Despite previous indications that Kody Clemens would take most of the reps at first base following Darick Hall’s thumb surgery, it would appear that the Phillies are now planning on shifting third baseman Alec Bohm over to first base in order to give utilityman Edmundo Sosa a run as the everyday third baseman. As noted by Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer, manager Rob Thomson seems interested in what Sosa can do with an everyday opportunity, telling reporters that “we’re going to see what he’s going to do against right-handed pitching.” Sosa got his first extended playing time with the Cardinals in 2021, posting a solid wRC+ of 104 while covering shortstop in addition to second base, third base, and even center field. He struggled mightily in 2022, however, posting just a 49 wRC+ in 53 games with St. Louis prior to being traded to Philadelphia, where he excelled down the stretch in 59 plate appearances that came primarily against southpaws.

Braves Place Michael Harris II On IL With Back Strain

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4:31pm: Snitker indicated the Braves aren’t concerned about the issue. Speaking with reporters this evening, the skipper implied Harris could be back after a minimal stint (via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal Constitution). According to Snitker, the injury was expected to sideline the center fielder for four or five days and the club didn’t want to play a man short.

2:45pm: The Braves announced that outfielder Michael Harris II has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a lower back strain. Fellow outfielder Eli White was recalled in a corresponding move.

Harris, 22, departed last night’s game with back tightness. After the game, manager Brian Snitker told reporters, including Jeff Schultz of The Athletic, that Harris banged his back on the wall while making a catch. Snitker said that Harris was day-to-day but it seems that the injury may have been a bit more serious than initially thought, given that the club has now decided to give him a breather for at least 10 days.

At this point, it’s unclear how much time the club expect Harris to miss. Given that he was initially described as day-to-day, it would be reasonable to expect a minimum absence, though that’s just a guess. Whatever the timeframe, they will be proceeding without a player who proved last year to be exceptionally talented. He got called up from Double-A straight to the majors, skipping over Triple-A entirely. The jump didn’t seem to phase him, as he hit 19 home runs and stole 20 bases in 114 games. His .297/.339/.514 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 136. He was also graded as an excellent defender in center, leading to a tally of 4.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and a Rookie of the Year award.

With Harris out of action today, the club has put Sam Hilliard in center. He has 88 previous career games at that position, with advanced defensive metrics grading him as slightly below average there. Now that White has been recalled to the roster, he could see some time there as well. He’s considered an excellent defender but hasn’t hit much in the big leagues yet, currently sporting a .185/.260/.296 career batting line. Kevin Pillar has plenty of experience in center but has been spending more time in the corners as he’s aged into his mid-30s.

Michael Harris II Wins National League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Braves center fielder Michael Harris II has won the National League Rookie of the Year award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. He was followed by teammate Spencer Strider and Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan in second and third place, respectively.

This has long been viewed as a two-horse race, with the pair of Atlanta players separating themselves from the pack. Harris, a third-round pick in 2019, emerged as one of the game’s more interesting prospects with a breakout 2021 showing in High-A. He began this year in Double-A but quickly proved too advanced for the level, tearing apart opposing pitchers through 43 games. The Braves made the bold decision to skip him over Triple-A entirely, installing him as the everyday center fielder upon calling him to the big leagues in late May.

Harris stepped in excellently for the defending World Series winners. The left-handed hitter posted  a .297/.339/.514 line through his first 441 big league plate appearances. He didn’t draw many walks, but Harris hit nearly .300 while connecting on 19 home runs and swiping 20 bases. He also played excellent center field defense, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him as eight runs above average with the glove. Statcast estimated he was six runs above par, and the 21-year-old now looks like one of the most promising two-way position players in the game.

Strider, meanwhile, looks like one of the sport’s top young arms. A fourth-round draftee in 2020, he immediately outperformed that fairly modest selection. The right-hander earned a brief big league audition late last season and began this year in the MLB bullpen. By mid-May, he’d been moved to the rotation, and his excellent fastball-slider combination continued to befuddle big league hitters. The 24-year-old combined for 131 2/3 innings of 2.67 ERA ball between the bullpen and the starting staff, striking out an incredible 38.3% of opponents along the way.

A top-two finish in Rookie of the Year balloting takes on significance beyond its mere prestige value now, thanks to provisions in the new collective bargaining agreement. The CBA contained measures designed to counteract service time manipulation through the so-called “prospect promotion incentive.” Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year.

Harris meets all three criteria and will thus earn a full service year, although he inked an eight-year contract extension midseason that negates any chance he’ll ever proceed through arbitration and pushed back his path to free agency. The full service year will have a small move in Harris’ eventual push for 10 years in the majors and its associated pension and possible no-trade benefits. Strider earned a full service year by playing 172-plus days on the MLB roster regardless, although he also later signed an extension.

The second element of the PPI won’t come into play in the National League. A player who meets the aforementioned prospect criteria, entered the year with less than 60 days of service and spent enough time on the MLB roster to earn a full service year independent of the awards finish would net their team a bonus draft choice with a top-two finish. Harris qualified for the prospect criteria but was not on the MLB roster long enough for a full service year without the award bonus. Strider did accrue the service time element but did not appear on a preseason Top 100 at any of MLB Pipeline, BA or ESPN. Unlike the Mariners, who received an extra selection based on Julio Rodríguez’s AL ROY win, the Braves will not accrue a bonus pick.

Harris picked up 22 of 30 first-place nods, with Strider collecting the other eight votes. Harris and Strider were 1-2 in some order on 29 of 30 ballots, with Reds closer Alexis Díaz earning the other second-place vote. Donovan earned a third-place finish with a .281/.394/.379 showing over 468 plate appearances in a utility capacity for St. Louis; he grabbed 22 third-place votes. Arizona outfielder Jake McCarthy, Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo and Pittsburgh shortstop Oneil Cruz joined Díaz in picking up stray support.

Full vote breakdown available here.

Poll: National League Rookie Of The Year

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This year’s National League Rookie of the Year voting will be a particularly fun one because the two front-runners happen to be teammates. Braves right-hander Spencer Strider and center fielder Michael Harris II both burst onto the scene in 2022 and both cemented themselves as building blocks in Atlanta. Wins above replacement is far, far from the be-all and end-all in ascertaining player value, but it’s still telling that Strider and Harris are both north of four WAR on the season (per both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs), while no other NL rookie has even three wins above replacement per either version of the metric.

Harris and Strider have both played at an All-Star level this season, though neither actually made the All-Star team this summer. That’s due largely to the fact that Strider began the season in the bullpen and Harris didn’t make his debut until late May. Given their play in 2022, that could change as early as next summer.

There’s still a bit of time for the bottom line to change, although with Strider on the 15-day injured list due to an oblique strain, his regular season is likely over. Harris will have another nine games to build his case, pending any off-days or an untimely injury of his own. Let’s take a quick look at each player’s candidacy.

A Quick Case for Strider

Dominant this season as both a reliever (2.22 ERA in 24 1/3 innings) and a starter (2.77 ERA, 107 1/3 innings), Strider leads all National League rookies with 131 2/3 innings pitched. Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene, a popular ROY pick prior to the season, is a distant second place at 113 2/3 innings. Strider’s gaudy 38.3% strikeout rate isn’t just the best among rookie pitchers in 2022 — it’s the best among all Major League pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings. Shane McClanahan is the only pitcher in Major League Baseball (again, min. 100 innings pitched) who has induced swinging strikes at a higher clip than Strider’s 15.5%.

Strider’s overall numbers — 131 2/3 innings, 2.67 ERA, 38.3% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate — are so dominant that if he had a few more innings on his resume, he’d be in the mix for some down-ballot Cy Young votes. (He may still get a handful, but he’s not going to stack up alongside the current leaders.)

A common argument against Strider is that he shouldn’t be favored because he plays less often than an everyday player (e.g. Harris). Firstly, unlike most of even the fringe ROY candidates, Strider broke camp with the Braves this year. He’s been on the roster since Opening Day, which Harris and others can’t claim.

Secondly, Strider has faced 528 batters this season and, were it not for the oblique injury, would’ve pushed that number close to 600. Even that 528 mark is greater than the total number of plate appearances for any National League rookie hitter. Strider (and pitchers in general) may appear in a fewer number of their team’s overall games, but as a pitcher, he has more direct influence on the outcome of every single plate appearance than any of the defenders behind him. On average, he faced 21.7 hitters per start. That’s nearly a week’s worth of plate appearances for a position player.

Put more succinctly, the counter-argument to that common knock on Strider is that hitters play a smaller role in determining the outcome of a large number of their team’s games; pitchers play a larger role in determining the outcome of a small number of their team’s games.

A Quick Case for Harris

In terms of wins above replacement, Harris trails only Julio Rodriguez for the rookie lead, per FanGraphs (4.8), and only Rodriguez and Cleveland’ Steven Kwan, per Baseball-Reference (5.1). He’s a dynamic player in all facets of the game, hitting .305/.346/.535 with 19 home runs and 19 steals apiece. Harris doesn’t walk much (4.7%) and strikes out a bit more than average (23.8%), but that hasn’t stopped him from being 43% better than the average hitter, by measure of wRC+ (or 42%, per OPS+).

Defensively, Harris looks like a future Gold Glover. He might not win one this season, as his cumulative defensive contributions are impacted by the fact that he spent nearly two months in the minors, but every publicly available metric is in agreement that he’s a plus, if not elite defender. In 949 innings of center field work, Harris has received standout marks from Defensive Runs Saved (7), Ultimate Zone Rating (3.9) and Statcast (6 Outs Above Average, 5 Runs Above Average), to name a few. Harris ranks in the 92nd percentile of Statcast’s Outs Above Average, the 87th percentile for his jumps on balls hit to the outfield, and in 94th percentile for pure sprint speed.

It’s true that Strider has more batters faced than Harris has plate appearances, but Harris has fielded far more balls in play in center field than Strider has on the mound. His value as a defensive player is far superior, particularly given his elite results in 2022. Harris also provides baserunning value that Strider doesn’t have the ability (or even the opportunity) to match. Despite appearing in just 106 games so far, Harris ranks 17th among all big leaguers in baserunning runs above average, per FanGraphs’ — a cumulative stat that incorporates more than just his impressive 19-for-21 showing in stolen bases.

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There’s really no wrong answer; both players have had sensational starts to their career and both have been absolutely vital pieces of a Braves team that trails the Mets by 1.5 games for the National League East lead. Still, only one of the two is going to take home Rookie of the Year honors in November. Who should it be?

Braves, Michael Harris II Agree To Eight-Year Extension

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The Braves have moved swiftly to lock up yet another budding star on a contract extension, announcing on Tuesday night that they’ve signed rookie center fielder Michael Harris II to an eight-year, $72MM contract spanning the 2023-30 seasons. The contract contains club options for the 2031 and 2032 seasons as well.

Michael Harris II | Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Braves, one of the few Major League teams to publicly disclose terms of their contracts, added that Harris will earn $5MM per season in 2023-24, $8MM annually in 2025-26, $9MM in 2027, $10MM annually from 2028-29, and $12MM in 2030. The 2031 option is valued at $15MM, and the 2032 option is valued at $20MM. Both come with $5MM buyouts.

Harris, a frontrunner to finish in the top two of National League Rookie of the Year voting — perhaps alongside teammate Spencer Strider — would’ve been a free agent after either the 2027 (with a top-two Rookie of the Year finish) or after the 2028 season but will instead forgo a trip to the open market in his mid-20s to sign a long-term pact with his hometown team.

The eight-year pact continues an aggressive trend from an Atlanta front office that has been unafraid to pay sizable sums to its young stars early in their careers. Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (eight years, $100MM) and second baseman Ozzie Albies (seven years, $35MM) both signed early, very club-friendly extensions that included a pair of club options beyond their guaranteed years. Acuna’s deal, like the one being discussed with Harris, was agreed upon before he even had a full year of Major League service time.

More recently, the Braves inked Matt Olson to an eight-year, $168MM extension the day after acquiring him in a five-player blockbuster with the A’s. And, this past summer, while so many teams were focused on the trade deadline in late July, the Braves hammered out a ten-year, $212MM extension for third baseman Austin Riley (before also making a handful of trades themselves, of course).

Harris, 21, was the No. 98 overall pick in the 2019 draft and bolstered his prospect stock with a torrid race through the minors that culminated in him skipping Triple-A entirely earlier this year. Despite being promoted right from Double-A, Harris hasn’t missed a beat in the Majors. He’s logged 268 plate appearances in the Majors, tonight’s performance included, and turned in a robust .287/.325/.500 batting line with a dozen homers, 14 doubles, two triples and 13 steals (in 13 tries). Couple that production with plus center field defense (5 Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average alike), and it’s easy to see how the Braves have quickly become enamored of the dynamic young outfielder.

As with any extension for a young player, there’s certainly some risk to both sides. Harris has but 71 games of big league experience under his belt with no Triple-A seasoning of which to speak. In fact, he played only 43 games in Double-A prior to his promotion. And, as good as he’s been thus far in his big league career, the Braves would surely like to see him improve upon a dismal 3.7% walk rate. He’s currently sporting a .345 average on balls in play that’ll likely drop a bit, although players with Harris’ type of speed (94th percentile sprint speed, per Statcast) can often sustain BABIP numbers higher than the league average.

The risk for Harris, meanwhile, is the same that teammates such as Acuna and Albies took when inking their own deals. He’s locking in a life-changing sum of money, to be sure, but a top-two finish in Rookie of the Year voting would have put Harris on track for arbitration following the 2024 season (or, absent that top-two finish, after the 2025 campaign). As things stand, he could’ve either been a free agent following the 2027 season, heading into his age-27 season, or following the 2028 campaign (when he’d be heading into his age-28 season). Free agents who are that young are the sorts who tend to land decade-long contracts north of $200MM or even $300MM.

Certainly, we can’t know whether Harris will sustain his current pace for a full six years. We see players debut with great fanfare and fade from the spotlight somewhat regularly, and injuries can always impact a player’s development and open-market earning power. Harris is surely aware that any early-career extension like this has the potential to turn into an unmitigated bargain for the team, just as the Braves are aware that Harris isn’t necessarily a lock to cement himself among the game’s elite young outfielders. That’s the balance all teams and players strive to strike in early extensions like this, and it appears that in this instance, the Braves and Harris found a sweet spot that’ll clock in a ways short of the Acuna deal but line up nicely with the recent eight-year, $70MM extension signed by Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes.

While these contracts tend to be bargains of significant nature when they hit — as they’ve done near universally for the Braves to this point — it’s also worth pointing out that they do inflate a team’s luxury-tax ledger earlier than might otherwise be the case. A $72MM contract for Harris will give him an immediate $9MM luxury hit (the contract’s average annual value) when he’d otherwise have counted for less than $1MM against the tax line.

Atlanta has a $207MM luxury payroll this year and $128MM already counting against next year’s ledger, and that’s before including a Harris contract or arbitration raises for any of Max Fried, A.J. Minter, Mike Soroka or Tyler Matzek (plus any free-agent or trade additions this winter). The extensions are still likely to be cost-effective moves for the team in the long run, but the Braves will have about $50MM of luxury commitments to Acuna, Albies, Riley and Harris alone next season if this deal indeed goes through.

None of that should serve as a deterrent, of course. Harris looks the part of a budding young star, and pairing him alongside Acuna in the outfield and alongside Acuna, Riley and Albies in the lineup for the foreseeable future gives the Braves the upside of an explosive quartet being controlled at a mere fraction of market value. The reduced nature of their salaries — relative to market pricing — ought to allow the team to continue to invest in free agents to supplement the core, keeping the Braves well positioned to contend in the National League East for the foreseeable future. That Harris grew up in the Atlanta area and attended high school just 37 miles south of Truist Park only makes him all the more marketable to the fan base, and surely only makes tonight’s deal sweeter for the latest homegrown, hometown star in Atlanta.

FanSided’s Robert Murray first reported that the two sides were “deep” in talks on an eight-year deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the contract would contain at least one option and would be valued at $72MM (Twitter links).

Big Hype Prospects: Henderson, Harris, De La Cruz, Brash, Valera

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This week, we (mostly) delve deeper into the minors to examine some fast-rising future stars.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Gunnar Henderson, 20, 3B/SS, BAL (AAA)

(AA) 208 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .312/.452/.573

Few prospects have done more to improve their stock than Henderson. Coming off a passable but unspectacular 2021 season, Henderson has torched minor league pitching. Since earning a promotion to Triple-A, he’s continued to punish opposing pitchers to the tune of .286/.500/.536 with two home runs in 40 plate appearances. He also has 12 walks against just five strikeouts. In Double-A, he posted 19.7 percent walk and 18.3 percent strikeout rates.

His outlandish performance to date is backed by scouting observations. I spoke with Orioles Director of Player Development Matt Blood prior to the season, and he specifically highlighted Henderson as someone who has turned the corner mentally. Last year, Henderson had some of the markers of passivity – namely a high walk rate, high strikeout rate, and a modest swinging strike rate. This season, he’s reportedly improved upon his selectivity, punishing pitches in the zone while continuing to spit on those outside the zone.

Henderson currently ranks 45th on the MLB Pipeline Top Prospects List. At this rate, he’ll soon join the Top 10 – unless he races to the Majors before the listmakers have time to adjust. The folks who curate your favorite prospect list tend to be quite conservative about upgrading guys based on a partial-season breakout, and with reason! We’ve seen many players post astronomical half-seasons only to later resume a more ordinary development path.

Michael Harris II, 21, OF, ATL (MLB)

70 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .328/.357/.537

To the best of my knowledge, Harris was the third position player to be promoted straight from Double-A to a Major League starting lineup this season. The first, C.J. Abrams, was overexposed in the Majors. Cubs utilityman Christopher Morel looks right at home in the big leagues. So too does Harris.

Harris makes low-angle contact with an all-fields approach. He’s also making frequent hard and barreled contact. Both rates are above league average as measured by Statcast. Taken together, he has the traits of a high batting average hitter. Where he seemingly lags is plate discipline. He’s taken a swing-happy approach in his first exposure to the Majors. He’s especially prone to offering at pitches outside of the zone. His in-zone swing rate is only a hair above league average. His contact rate is roughly league average too. In other words, his aggression hasn’t proven costly. Yet.

It’s not uncommon for physically gifted prospects to reach the Majors, perform surprisingly well, then slump once scouting reports adjust. In Harris’ case, scouts are going to advise a bevy of breaking balls out of the zone. If he plunges into a slump, he might get a belated taste of Triple-A. If he adjusts quickly or otherwise holds his own, then he’s probably here to stay.

Harris is the midst of an eight-game hitting streak over which he’s batting .433/.469/.800 with both of his home runs and steals.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, 3B/SS, (A+)

222 PA, 12 HR, 17 SB, .304/.351/.594

If you haven’t already heard about De La Cruz, expect to see his name appearing in more and more articles. Scouts love his build – he has light-tower power, near-elite speed, and a cannon of an arm. He already makes some of the loudest contact in the minors. While he’s mostly worked at shortstop, there’s an expectation he’ll eventually move to third base or perhaps even center field.

A prospect of De La Cruz’s ilk always comes with caveats. His plate discipline can be (generously) described as questionable. His current 6.3 percent walk rate is a marked improvement over the 4.8 percent rate he posted last season. Meanwhile, his 30.6 percent strikeout rate is right in line with his previous performance.

Given his current contact profile, he could fall into a Javier Baez-like mold. Or perhaps Oneil Cruz is the better comp. After all, they’re both physical mutants who might stick at shortstop. Cruz happened to post similar numbers as a 20-year-old in High-A, then held his own in Double-A later that year. Cruz even had questions about his plate discipline. The Reds have no incentive to rush De La Cruz, but he should sniff the upper minors in the coming months.

Matt Brash, 24, SP/RP, SEA (AAA)

19 IP, 3.32 ERA, 15.16 K/9, 5.21 BB/9

Brash entered the season in the Mariners rotation, dazzled in his debut, then proceeded to walk the world. I recall watching that first outing and worrying what would happen when hitters stopped swinging at his breaking balls out of the zone. He didn’t show any sign of being able to command anything within the strike zone. Sure enough, it quickly became a problem. The Mariners made the decision to demote him from the Major League rotation straight to the Triple-A bullpen. A relief role offers a more direct path for pitchers with Brash’s combination of filthy stuff and poor command.

Signs are pointing in the right direction. After some initial command-related struggles, Brash has shoved over his last 10 appearances. His 10-inning scoreless streak dating back to May 25 includes just five hits and two walks compared to 16 strikeouts. He once again appears to be ready for prime time. Unfortunately for him, the Seattle bullpen is fairly robust and will soon need to make way for Ken Giles (who happens to be flailing in his rehab assignment). Brash may need to await a couple injuries to reclaim a role.

George Valera, 21, OF, CLE (AA)

236 PA, 10 HR, 2 SB, .291/.398/.513

Expectations for Valera vary greatly depending on the source. I’ve seen Cleveland fans compare him to Mike Trout. I’ve also seen open skepticism about his hit tool. His performance this season hasn’t exactly supported either of these extreme interpretations. Instead, he seems to be trending as a steady regular outfielder.

Statistically, Valera works counts and runs a tolerable 11.6 percent swinging strike rate. That’s helped him to around a 23 percent strikeout rate any time he’s settled into a level. His strikeout rate tends to spike above 30 percent when he moves up a level. He’s seemingly nearing a promotion to Triple-A. We should probably expect another temporary surge in strikeouts when it happens. His pattern of struggling then dominating each rung of the minor league ladder is reminiscent of Jo Adell. Valera’s discipline should serve to ensure some kind of big league role.

Five More

Zack Gelof, OAK (22): A 2021 draftee, the Athletics promoted Gelof straight from Low-A to Triple-A last season where he held his own in a 13-plate appearance trial. They assigned him to Double-A this season. He’s hit .315/.372/.458. Gelof recently tore the labrum of his non-throwing shoulder and could miss the bulk of this season depending on the treatment plan.

Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): Every season, there’s one teenaged prospect who catches the imagination of every prospect watcher. Last year, it was De La Cruz. This season, it’s Chourio. Scouting reports abound with praise for the young outfielder. He’s currently swatting .347/.394/.599 with six home runs and five steals in 160 plate appearances. It’s uncommon for well-rounded athletes to show this much power as an 18-year-old. Chourio is a long way from the Majors, but his path is already paved. He just has to stay on it, and walk the remaining miles.

Andrew Painter, PHI (19): Painter made a mockery of the complex league, posting a 1.40 ERA with 16.06 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9. He’s shown advanced feel for a pitcher his age. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen notes how well he combines a high, arm-side fastball with a biting slider. He also throws a curve and changeup, both of which lag behind his two primary offerings. He’ll need to develop those in order to stick in the rotation. Painter was recently promoted to High-A.

Bobby Miller, LAD (23): A flamethrowing right-hander, Miller has experienced mixed results in Double-A. He’s posted a 4.60 ERA with 9.57 K/9 and 3.26 BB/9. There’s a Hunter Greene-ish feel to Miller. His fastball runs over 100-mph with regularity, but certain characteristics cause it to play down. There’s relief risk here, especially if the Dodgers don’t trade him. They have the resources to use him in whichever role provides the most instant gratification.

Noelvi Marte, SEA (20): Last week, I observed that a sliver of the shine has come off Marte. A prominent writer reached out for my sources, and I realized I’d misplaced the relevant comment. I’ll do a better job sourcing my material going forward. Presently Marte is putting up slightly better than average production as one of the youngest players in High-A. He remains an exciting prospect.

Braves Promote Michael Harris II

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The Braves have selected the contract of top outfield prospect Michael Harris II, Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.  Harris will be taking the place of outfielder Travis Demeritte, who was optioned to Triple-A after last night’s game.

It’s an aggressive and somewhat surprising promotion on the Braves’ part, as the 21-year-old Harris has yet to play even in Triple-A ball.  However, Harris could be seen as a center field upgrade immediately, as Adam Duvall has hit only .191/.263/.274 over 175 plate appearances.  At the very least, the switch-hitting Harris will be sharing time with the right-handed hitting Duvall, though it seems likely that the Braves wouldn’t have called Harris up if they weren’t planning on playing the youngster every day.

Atlanta’s outfield has largely struggled all season, with the notable exception of Ronald Acuna Jr. since his return from the injured list.  However, Acuna has missed time with a quad strain over the last few days, and while Acuna was able to pinch-hit last night, the Braves figure to be cautious with their superstar until he is closer to 100 percent.

This provides an opportunity for Harris to give the outfield mix a shot in the arm, and it represents the latest step in what has been a rather quick rise to prominence.  A local product born in DeKalb, Georgia, Harris was a third-round pick for the Braves in the 2019 draft, and he had only an okay rookie season before sitting out in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season.

Upon returning to the field, Harris suddenly blossomed, hitting .294/.362/.436 over 420 PA for the Braves’ High-A affiliate, and also hitting seven homers and stealing 27 bases out of 31 chances.  This breakout put him on the radar of prospect evaluators, with Baseball America listing Harris as the 46th-best prospect in baseball in their preseason rankings (Baseball Prospectus ranked him 58th, The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked him 61st, and MLB Pipeline ranked him 65st).

Defensively, Harris has played mostly as a center fielder, and received plus grades for his glovework and his throwing arm.  (The latter is no surprise, as Harris was also a highly-touted pitcher in high school.)  As per Pipeline’s scouting report, Harris was voted the best defensive outfielder in the High-A East league by rival managers.

At the plate, Harris hit exclusively as a left-handed batter in 2021 before returning to switch-hitting this season in Double-A.  Harris has been prone to chasing pitches, but improved on that problem as the 2021 season went on, cutting back on his strikeouts while improving his on-base numbers.  While Harris has posted big BABIP numbers over the last two seasons, those totals speak to both some good fortune and his plus speed, which allows him to beat out grounders.

Harris hit .305/.372/.506 with five homers and 11 steals (in 14 chances) over 196 PA at the Double-A level, leaving no doubt that his 2021 performance was for real.  It was enough to convince Atlanta that Harris is ready for The Show, and yet as always with prospects, it shouldn’t be assumed that Harris will immediately play well in his first taste of the majors.

It could be that the Braves might eventually send Harris down to Triple-A if he struggles, which would halt his MLB service clock.  If Harris does stay up, he likely won’t bank enough service time to make him a Super Two candidate (and thus earn a fourth year of arbitration eligibility).  Players like Seiya Suzuki and MacKenzie Gore have an early lead in the race to be NL Rookie Of The Year, though there’s plenty of time for Harris to make a late charge, which would benefit both Harris and the Braves via the new Prospect Promotion Incentive plan.

East Notes: Casas, Armstrong, Harris

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Triston Casas had a busy year in 2021, bouncing between Double-A, the Team USA Olympic squad and Triple-A. “I was bouncing all over the place,” Casas said to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. “I did my best to take it one day at a time and I’m happy with the way I handled it. But hopefully I’ll be a little more settled this year.” All of that bouncing around did nothing to slow Casas down, as the Red Sox first base prospect hit .279/.394/.484 for a wRC+ of 141 in 86 games, between Double-A and Triple-A. That showing has him on the cusp of making his major league debut, though he doesn’t yet have a spot on the roster. That means he’ll have the extra challenge of having to earn that roster spot before getting called up, but also comes with the positive of Casas not being locked out and thus eligible to participate in Spring Training. “I absolutely appreciate what they’re doing,” Casas said of the MLBPA’s efforts in the lockout. “I know they’re working diligently to make sure baseball is a fair game. I don’t know all the information, but they’re making a sacrifice to help younger players.” As for what comes next for the 22-year-old, “My goal is to make the major league team.” The Sox currently project to have Bobby Dalbec at first base and J.D. Martinez in the DH slot most of the time. However, Martinez is a free agent after 2022, meaning that, even if Casas struggles to force his way into the lineup this year, his chances of doing so will be much greater one year from now.

Elsewhere in the East…

  • Though Shawn Armstrong is a minor league free agent, the rules specifying which players are locked out have kept the right-hander on the open market and unable to sign even a minor league deal, according to The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin.  It’s a tough blow for the 31-year-old, especially since Armstrong said he heard from over 20 teams in November prior to the lockout, with the Rays (Armstrong’s former club) and roughly a dozen other teams offering minor league or split contracts.  Armstrong opted to wait for a guaranteed offer, but now finds himself stuck waiting to determine the next step in his career.  “I know, it’s going to be very, very quick when the lockout ends versus being able to talk and communicate and counteroffer and those types of things,” Armstrong said. “But it is what it is.  Nothing I can do about it.  Just got to stay ready.”
  • Braves outfield prospect Michael Harris II had a solid year in 2021, playing 101 High-A games and hitting .294/.362/.436, wRC+ of 114. But he might just be scratching the surface of what he’s capable of, at least according to fellow Braves prospect Braden Shewmake. “I think (Harris) could help (the big club). I definitely do,” Shewmake tells Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “When he gets his chance, I think he’s going to stick. I don’t think he’s going to be a guy that bounces back and forth.” Despite his promise, Harris is aware that he still has to make strides, telling Toscano that “There’s always somewhere to improve, so I don’t really focus on one specific area.” Harris doesn’t yet have a roster spot, meaning other outfielders like Drew Waters and Cristian Pache have a clearer path to playing time than he does. But unlike them, Harris has the advantage of not being locked out, and thus able to participate in team activities and access team facilities.

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