Michael Conforto

Michael Conforto Day-To-Day With Heel Bruise

By Darragh McDonald | May 31, 2023 at 5:30pm CDT

5:30pm: Conforto’s MRI came back clean, per Pavlovic. The club considers him day-to-day with a heel bruise.

1:52pm: Giants outfielder Michael Conforto is dealing with a heel bruise on his left foot and will undergo an X-ray, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Conforto will also undergo an MRI, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, who adds that the outfielder is walking with a limp at the moment.

To this point, it’s unclear how severe the injury is, but it’s obviously somewhat concerning that Conforto is having trouble putting his weight on the foot. The fact that he’s about to undergo a series of tests points to some level of concern on the part of the club as well. “He was feeling much better last night than he is today,” manager Gabe Kapler tells Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com. “He’s in more discomfort.” The results of that testing will provide some clarity on what to expect going forward.

Health has been a major focus for Conforto in recent years, as he missed the entire 2022 season due to shoulder surgery. The Giants then took a shot on a bounceback by signing him to a two-year, $36MM deal, one that allowed him to opt out after the first season. There was an added level of risk since he also struggled in 2021, hitting .232/.344/.384 that year for a wRC+ of 106. He was still above average but well off his previous form, as he hit .265/.369/.495 from 2017 to 2020 for a 133 wRC+.

Despite an entire year off, he has been in good form so far this year, having hit 11 home runs already. His .250/.347/.464 batting line translates to a 123 wRC+, just about in line with his career production. He has been on a particularly torrid stretch lately, hitting seven of those 11 home runs in the past three weeks while slashing .373/.421/.716 for a wRC+ of 202 in that time.

It would obviously be a blow to the Giants if that kind of bat was removed for the lineup, so the results of the imaging will be significant for the club. They are already without other outfield options, as each of Joc Pederson, Heliot Ramos and Luis González is on the injured list right now. Should Conforto join them, the Giants would have to figure out a plan for moving forward.

Mitch Haniger and Mike Yastrzemski would have two outfield spots spoken for, with Bryce Johnson and Austin Slater also on the roster. Johnson is generally considered a glove-first option while Slater is an effective hitter but primarily against left-handed pitchers. He’s hit .290/.380/.476 against southpaws in his career but .226/.314/.336 otherwise. Blake Sabol could also spend some time in the outfield though he’s also part of the catching mix alongside Patrick Bailey. Luis Matos is on the 40-man roster and playing well in the minors but hasn’t yet made his major league debut. He has a .315/.395/.452 batting line this year, split between Double-A and Triple-A.

The extent of the heel injury could also potentially have ramifications for Conforto personally, as he will be deciding whether or not to trigger his opt-out at season’s end. He’s making salaries of $18MM this year and next and will have to decide whether to leave the back half on the table or return to the open market in search of a larger guarantee. The opt-out provision is contingent on him reaching 350 plate appearances on the season and he’s already more than halfway there, currently at 196. A significant absence would decrease his chances of getting over that threshold. Even if he does make it over the 350 line, any injury-related dip in performance could impact his decision.

2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

By Steve Adams | April 19, 2023 at 9:40pm CDT

Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15 ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.

Giants Notes: Conforto, Pederson, Guzman, Szapucki

By Anthony Franco | March 9, 2023 at 11:23pm CDT

Michael Conforto logged six innings of right field work in this afternoon’s Spring Training contest against the Brewers. It was his first defensive time of exhibition play, as he’d previously been limited to designated hitter duties. Conforto has continued to build shoulder strength after his 2022 campaign was wiped out by surgery. Strengthening his arm has been the final hurdle in the rehab process; there were rumors Conforto could even return at the tail end of the ’22 campaign as a DH only, but he ultimately elected to wait things out until this offseason.

Despite the lost year, Conforto landed a surprising $36MM guarantee from the Giants. He’ll make $18MM this year and could test free agency next winter if he tallies at least 350 plate appearances during the upcoming season. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi discussed the signing with Joel Sherman of the New York Post, noting that while he’s “sympathetic” to those who were taken aback by the contract, the front office is “just so confident how good he’s going to be this year.”

Zaidi noted the Giants expect Conforto to be fully healthy and broadly expressed the belief he’ll return to the middle-of-the-order hitter he was for the majority of his time with the Mets. Zaidi called Conforto a candidate for a nine-figure free agent deal before his shoulder injury, although that’d have been likelier if he’d hit free agency after 2020 as opposed to following a relative down year in ’21 (.232/.344/.384 in 479 plate appearances). Regardless, it’s clear the Giants anticipate Conforto more closely resembling the player he was over the preceding four seasons, when he combined for a .265/.369/.495 line.

The signings of Conforto and Mitch Haniger overhauled San Francisco’s corner outfield. They’ll play regularly when healthy, although Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area writes that it’s still to be determined who’ll man which corner. Both players have seen more action in right field than left. Pavlovic notes that concerns about Conforto’s post-surgery arm strength could push him to left field but they’ll move the duo around in Spring Training to gauge their best alignment heading into the season.

The pair of offseason pickups should push Joc Pederson off the grass for the most part. He’s likely to be the designated hitter most days but has gotten some first base reps this spring to give the team slightly more flexibility. That’ll be put on hold during the World Baseball Classic, however. Pederson is expected to work solely in the outfield for the Israeli national team, writes John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. He’ll continue to get first base reps once he returns to S.F. camp.

That’s not the only experiment the Giants are running with the luxury of exhibition games. The club brought in former Rangers first baseman Ronald Guzmán on a non-roster deal and is allowing him to work as a two-way player. Guzmán has pitched three times this spring, allowing three runs in as many innings. He’s coming off easily his best outing, though, striking out Eddy Alvarez, Skye Bolt and Jesse Winker in a perfect inning today.

After the game, Gumzán told reporters he signed with the Giants in large part because they were the sole club offering him an opportunity to play both ways (link via Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic). “That was a big issue, to be honest. The Giants were the only team that wanted me to pitch only,” the 28-year-old said, noting that other teams targeted him strictly as first base depth. “I had to really think about it. I had to let them understand how I feel about things. At the end of the day, they gave me the opportunity to do both but mostly pitch. But some teams rejected me. I knew what I wanted. I wanted to do both. And I knew I had the capability to do both.”

Baggarly writes that Guzmán isn’t under consideration for an Opening Day roster spot. He’ll head to Triple-A Sacramento once the season starts and continue working out of the bullpen there. The Giants have Taylor Rogers and Scott Alexander ticketed for MLB jobs, while Sam Long offers a depth candidate already on the 40-man roster. Guzmán joins Sean Newcomb and Darien Núñez among the non-roster players in camp.

Thomas Szapucki, one of four players acquired from the Mets in last summer’s Darin Ruf deal, also could factor into the group if healthy. He tossed 13 2/3 innings of three-run ball after the trade, striking out 16 while walking just four. Kapler told reporters today that Szapucki is headed for further examination after experiencing some elbow discomfort, however (via Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). The club figures to provide more information about his outlook and return timetable in the coming days.

NL West Notes: Rockies, Conforto, Padres

By Steve Adams | March 3, 2023 at 10:54am CDT

As the Rockies brace for potentially unwelcome news on both second baseman Brendan Rodgers and lefty Lucas Gilbreath, they’re perhaps already giving fans a preview of one contingency plan. With Rodgers out indefinitely and possibly facing season-ending surgery, Colorado is deploying third baseman Ryan McMahon at second base today and giving former top prospect Elehuris Montero the start at third base. This is obviously just one permutation that the lineup could take if Rodgers is indeed lost for the season, as there are alternate options at both third base (Kris Bryant, Nolan Jones) and at second base (Alan Trejo). Non-roster invitee Harold Castro can play both spots (though defensive metrics view his glovework at both positions in a negative light). Rodgers was going for a second opinion on his shoulder yesterday after reportedly receiving an initial recommendation of surgery. The Rox should have further updates on his status before long.

Giants Notes: Sanchez, Marshall, Conforto

By Darragh McDonald | January 11, 2023 at 12:46pm CDT

The Giants didn’t succeed in landing the marquee free agent they sought when the offseason began, but they have added to their roster in a different way. They’ve spread their money around and given eight-figure guarantees to six different players in Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea, Joc Pederson, Ross Stripling, Taylor Rogers and Luke Jackson. But they still have their sights set on further upgrades, with Héctor Gómez of Z101 Digital reporting they have shown interest in catcher Gary Sánchez.

The level of interest the club has is not known, but it makes plenty of logical sense. The Giants only have a pair of catchers on their 40-man roster at the moment, as Austin Wynns was designated for assignment last week. The two remaining backstops are Blake Sabol, a Rule 5 draftee with no major league experience, and Joey Bart.

The latter was a second overall pick in 2018 who has been ranked as one of the better prospects in the game, but he’s yet to fully cement himself in the big leagues. Through 408 plate appearances over the past three seasons, he’s hit 11 home runs but struck out at a 38% rate. His batting line currently sits at .222/.294/.351 for a wRC+ of 84. He was also considered a subpar defender and framer last year, according to Defensive Runs Saved and FanGraphs. Even if the Giants still believe in Bart as their long-term solution behind the plate, it makes sense that they would consider a veteran alternative as a safety net for the short-term.

Sánchez, 30, earned a reputation as a bat-first catcher when he hit 53 home runs over 2016 and 2017. His batting line over that two-year stretch was .284/.354/.568 for a wRC+ of 143. He’s since cooled off at the plate, posting a 96 wRC+ in the five seasons since, including an 89 in 2022. Despite that tepid platform year at the plate, his previous production should still lead to some interest. It’s also possible he could get a boost from the upcoming defensive restrictions since he was shifted in more than 70% of his appearances last year, despite being right-handed. Sánchez has long been considered to be weaker on the defensive side of his game, but he was actually ranked above average by both DRS and FanGraphs’ framing metric last year.

The Giants have been quite active on the waiver wire in recent years, grabbing various catchers and cycling them through the roster throughout the year. Signing Sánchez would be a change in strategy but an understandable one since he’s arguably the top catcher still available in free agency.

The club also has interest in reliever Evan Marshall, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Marshall bounced around the league for a few years but seemed to have a breakout with the White Sox in 2019 and 2020. Over those two seasons, the right-hander made 78 appearances with a 2.45 ERA. His 10.3% walk rate was certainly on the high side but he struck out 23.5% of batters faced and got ground balls at a strong clip of 52.3%.

Unfortunately, things went sideways in 2021, with his ERA jumping to 5.60. He went to the injured list in June with an elbow injury and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in October. The Sox outrighted him off the roster at season’s end and he missed the entire 2022 campaign.

The club’s interest in Marshall, who turns 33 in April, would be somewhat akin to their signing of Luke Jackson. The latter pitcher underwent Tommy John in April of last year and isn’t likely to be ready for Opening Day. Marshall is also coming back from TJS but should be further along since he went under the knife about six months earlier than Jackson, though that’s speculative and each injury rehab is unique. Regardless of his current status, it seems the Giants have some interest in seeing if he can get back to that strong form he showed a few years ago.

Elsewhere in Giant news, Conforto provided a health update to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. The outfielder missed the entire 2022 season due to a shoulder injury but is now healthy enough that the Giants signed him to a two-year, $36MM guarantee. Conforto can opt out of the deal after the first season but only if he makes at least 350 plate appearances this year.

He tells Shea that he’s begun ramping up for 2023 and is already throwing from 200 feet. “It’s all going great, knock on wood,” Conforto says. “There haven’t been any setbacks. I got all my measurements today with the medical team, and they’re pleased with the way everything’s looking, strength-wise, swing-wise, running, everything.”

Giants Sign Michael Conforto

By Darragh McDonald | January 6, 2023 at 2:00pm CDT

Jan. 6: The Giants have formally announced Conforto’s two-year deal. The opt-out provision in his contract is contingent on plate appearances, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports (Twitter link). Conforto will trigger the ability to opt out upon reaching 350 plate appearances.

Dec. 23: The Giants and outfielder Michael Conforto are in agreement on a two-year, $36MM deal. Conforto will be able to opt out after the first season. The deal is pending a physical. He is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Conforto, 30 in March, was arguably the best upside play remaining on the free agent market based on his excellent run of results from 2017 through 2020. However, it’s not without risk for the Giants, as Conforto had a disappointing season in 2021 and then missed the 2022 season entirely due to shoulder surgery.

In that 2017-2020 stretch, Conforto got into 467 games for the Mets and launched 97 home runs. His 24.4% strikeout rate was slightly higher than average but his 12.7% walk rate was well beyond par. His overall offensive output resulted in a batting line of .265/.369/.495, which was 33% above league average by measure of wRC+. That 133 wRC+ was in the top 25 among all qualified hitters in baseball during that time.

In 2021, Conforto’s production dipped, most notably in the power department. He only hit 14 home runs in 125 games after hitting 27 or more in the previous three full seasons. He finished the year with a .232/.344/.384 slash, which was still a bit above average as his wRC+ was 106, but a noticeable drop-off from his prior form. Despite that down year, the Mets felt comfortable extending him an $18.4MM qualifying offer and Conforto felt comfortable rejecting.

He went into free agency looking for a lucrative multi-year offer but didn’t secure it prior to the December 1 lockout. He then injured his shoulder while training during that lockout and eventually required surgery. Given his uncertain health status and attachment to draft pick forfeiture from rejecting the qualifying offer, that scrubbed any chance of him securing a significant contract. Once the draft passed and he was no longer tied to any kind of penalties, there were some rumors of teams considering signing him to a short deal while hoping his shoulder could heal enough to aid a stretch run, but that never materialized.

Conforto then entered this offseason as a high-risk, high-reward play. He’s coming off an entire missed season and a poor showing in 2021, but was one of the best hitters in baseball prior to that. MLBTR predicted he would land a one-year, $15MM deal, hoping to prove his health and return to free agency for a more lucrative deal a year from now. Conforto’s agent, Scott Boras, said that his client would be looking for a two-year deal with an opt-out akin to the one he negotiated between Carlos Rodón and the Giants. The situations were somewhat analogous since Rodón was also an extremely talented player with health concerns. However, he was at least coming off a strong 2021 season when he secured that two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants, so it seemed like Conforto would have to settle for something beneath that given his greater uncertainty. He has now indeed secured the deal he was looking for, with the Giants again proving to be the team willing to give out the desired opt-out. Conforto got a lesser guarantee than Rodón, as expected, but has done quite well for himself in getting a higher salary than predicted.

Despite Conforto’s uncertain status, he still proved to be quite popular this offseason. The Rangers, Blue Jays, Mets, Rockies, Cubs, Marlins, Mariners and Astros were all connected to him at various points in the offseason. Some of those clubs ended up addressing their outfields with other players, but those that still have designs on upgrades will find limited options remaining on the open market. Some of the top unsigned free agent outfielders are Jurickson Profar, David Peralta, Trey Mancini and AJ Pollock.

For the Giants, they went into this offseason looking to be aggressive. They followed up their 107-win campaign in 2021 with a disappointing 81-81 finish in 2022. Since their future payroll was fairly wide open and they were looking for significant improvements, they were frequently connected to marquee free agents such as Aaron Judge and the “big four” shortstops: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi did little to temper expectations, telling media at the beginning of the offseason that “from a financial standpoint, there would be nobody that would be out of our capability.”

The early stages of the club’s offseason seemed to orbit around their pursuit of Judge and the club reportedly offered him a contract of $360MM, but he eventually secured that same guarantee from the Yankees and accepted. The Giants then pivoted to Correa and agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal, though that ended up falling through in unprecedented fashion. The Giants flagged something in Correa’s medical that gave them pause, later reported to be his right leg, postponing the official signing just as it was to be announced. Ron Kroichick of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that Correa had even begun house shopping with his family in the area. But the health concerns were enough that they allowed him to walk away from the pact, freeing him to secure a 12-year, $315MM deal with the Mets shortly thereafter.

Since all of the other top free agents were already off the board, there were no remaining avenues for the Giants to make the big splash that many expected. By turning to Conforto, they arguably did the best they could among the remaining free agents. However, there’s a certain absurdity to the club walking into a public relations nightmare by letting Correa slip away at the last second, only to see their two biggest free agent splashes be Conforto, who missed the entire 2022 season, and Mitch Haniger, who has only twice played 100 games in a season due to various injuries.

Regardless of the optics, the Giants were reportedly looking to add two outfielders this offseason and have accomplished that. Conforto has played center field in the past but not since 2019 and he wasn’t graded well there at that time. The Giants will most likely be looking at Conforto and Haniger in the corners, leaving center field to Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater. That will likely push LaMonte Wade Jr. into spending more time at first base, potentially platooning with J.D. Davis, where the club will be facing the loss of Brandon Belt.

Assuming an even distribution of the money, this contract brings the club’s payroll up to $181MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well beyond last year’s Opening Day payroll of $154MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though they’ve gone above $200MM in the past. Their $197MM competitive balance tax calculation is also well shy of the $233MM luxury tax threshold. That could leave them room to maneuver if they have their eyes on further additions.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the two sides were in agreement on a two-year, $36MM deal. Buster Olney of ESPN first noted the opt-out provision.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Quick Hits: Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Rangers

By Maury Ahram | December 25, 2022 at 10:56am CDT

The Diamondbacks have added former pitcher Rolando Valles to their major league coaching staff, per Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic. Valles takes the position vacated by former D-Backs bench coach Luis Urueta, who left the team in November to join the Marlins in the same role. When discussing the hiring, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters that Valles will be part of Arizona’s “run-prevention team.”

Signed by the Astros as an undrafted free agent in 1997, Valles would spend five years in the club’s system, reaching Low-A, before playing another five seasons in independent leagues. He then transitioned to an organizational role, spending two seasons with the Brewers in their player development system helping players with their off-field needs and on-field development before becoming a minor league pitching coach in 2010. Valles joined the Reds in 2019 in an associate coaching role where he engaged in offensive and pitching duties.

Some more notes from around the game…

The recent passing of a ’millionaires tax’ in Massachusetts has led to an increase in state income taxes in 2023 from 5% to 9% on annual income over $1MM — potentially impacting Boston’s offseason, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. Speier reports that agents who have been negotiating with the Red Sox are factoring in the tax when contemplating offers, stating that “it’s potentially millions of dollars in the deal.” Speier adds that Boston is now “lumped in with teams in California and New York in needing to outbid clubs in more favorable tax environments (particularly Texas and Florida, where there’s no state income tax) to present offers of equal value.” Speculatively speaking, this tax may have played a role in the Red S0x’s five-year, $90MM agreement with NPB star Masataka Yoshida, who many around the league predicted would earn significantly less.
With the Red Sox witnessing their longtime shortstop Xander Bogarts leave in free agency, the club has been connected with several middle infielders to fill the hole, most recently signing Niko Goodrum to a Minor League deal and discussing Joey Wendle with the Marlins. However, the door for Kike Hernandez to play a key role in the infield has not been completely shut. The super utilityman told reports that he is “preparing to play center field every day … but I haven’t thrown away my infield glove,” adding that he continues to take ground balls. Over nine seasons, the 31-year-old has logged 2,335 innings at short and second base but has primarily patrolled Fenway’s outfield in recent years. From a defensive standpoint, advanced metrics concerning Hernandez’s middle infield production are split. Since 2014 at the shortstop position, the righty is credited with 9 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a 5.4 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) but a -3 Outs Above Average (OAA). Similarly, since 2014 at second base, Hernandez has amassed 18 DRS but a -6.1 UZR and -5 OAA.
Despite missing the entirety of the 2022 season, Michael Conforto and agent Scott Boras were able to secure the outfielder a two-year, $36MM contract with the Giants. Important to the deal, per Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, was the no-barrier opt out presented to Conforto by San Francisco. Grant adds that while the Rangers offered the left-handed hitter a deal similar to the Giants, Conforto would have to meet certain playing thresholds to execute the opt out.

Latest On Michael Conforto’s Market

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2022 at 9:55am CDT

The Rangers made Michael Conforto an offer over the summer and have maintained interest in the free-agent outfielder throughout the offseason, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. That interest has led to recent talks with agent Scott Boras, who said earlier in the offseason that Conforto was eyeing a two-year contract with an opt-out opportunity after the first season.

Texas isn’t alone in courting Conforto. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that both the Blue Jays and Mets are still showing interest as well. (The Mets, of course, are the only team for which Conforto has ever played.) Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post adds (via Twitter) that the Rockies checked in but are not seen as a likely landing spot. Saunders lists the Cubs, Marlins and Rangers as teams more prominently involved in the Conforto bidding. Seattle and Houston were linked to Conforto earlier in the offseason, though the Astros’ reunion with Michael Brantley seemingly takes them out of the Conforto mix.

The Rangers are the most commonly cited suitor for Conforto, though that hardly ensures that he’ll be suiting up at Globe Life Field in 2023. Still, Texas has had a clear need for at least one outfielder all season but has thus far focused its free-agent and trade pursuits on pitchers. Conforto, 30 in March, would be a risky investment on a multi-year deal but would come with substantial upside; the former first-round pick posted a combined .265/.369/.495 batting line with 97 home runs, 86 doubles, three triples, a 12.7% walk rate and 24.4% strikeout rate in 1959 plate appearances from 2017-20.

Conforto’s platform year before reaching free agency, however, was disappointing. He followed that strong four-year run with a more pedestrian .232/.344/.384 batting line in his age-28 season in 2021. Conforto still rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, banking on a team being willing to forfeit a draft pick based on the strength of his overall track record. That didn’t happen prior to last winter’s lockout, though, and Conforto went on to suffer an offseason shoulder injury that required surgery in the spring. Despite interest from the Astros and the apparent offer from the Rangers, Conforto did not sign over the summer, instead ostensibly preferring to wait for an offseason deal and a fully healthy return to baseball. (Had he played last summer, it’s believed he’d have been limited to designated hitter duties.)

Rosenthal suggests that some teams are concerned about Conforto’s throwing in the wake of that surgery, though he’s currently throwing from a distance of 150 feet. For the Rangers, Conforto could potentially slot into left field, given Adolis Garcia’s presence in right field. That might help to mitigate some concerns about his arm strength — if Texas even has any at the moment. Rangers left fielders were far and away the worst in MLB last season, batting a combined .186/.253/.255. Every one of those rate stats ranked dead-last in the Majors, as did the resulting 47 wRC+. Texas, incredibly, gave 13 different players a look in left field last season.

While the Rangers stand as an obvious and perhaps the best fit for Conforto, his other reported suitors are all sensible landing spots, to varying degrees. The Blue Jays have a nearly all-right-handed lineup and have seen Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s offensive contributions wane in recent seasons; Gurriel still hit for a strong .291 average in 2022, but his power vanished and his defensive grades have never been particularly strong. GM Ross Atkins said just yesterday that his focus was shifting to upgrading the offense — ideally by adding a lefty bat who could slot into the outfield. Conforto checks a lot of boxes for them. As with the Rangers, Conforto could likely slot into left field with Toronto, lessening potential concerns about his throwing arm.

The Mets, meanwhile, already have a crowded roster and a bloated payroll, but owner Steve Cohen and GM Billy Eppler seem undeterred by either of those factors. Conforto could factor into Buck Showalter’s lineup as a left fielder and designated hitter, perhaps pushing Daniel Vogelbach into more of a bench role than the platoon DH role for which he’s currently set. It might not be an especially clean fit, but the Mets perhaps feel they’d be a deeper and better team by adding Conforto, which could well bump Darin Ruf (who struggled following his acquisition over the summer) or high-priced catcher James McCann from the roster.

The Cubs’ outfield is largely set, with Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki lined up from left to right, but there’s plenty of opportunity for Conforto to join the mix and rotate through the outfield corners and designated hitter. Neither the Rockies nor Marlins are ideal fits, but it’s nevertheless notable that both have looked into a potential match with Conforto. Both teams need center fielders more than a corner outfielder, however. Colorado could push Randal Grichuk to center, but he’s generally graded out as a better defender in right field. Miami, meanwhile, already has a pair of corner outfielders — Avisail Garcia, Jorge Soler — in search of a rebound, though the latter figures to spend the bulk of his time at designated hitter in 2023.

Between a fair number of teams with interest and this offseason’s rash of free-agent deals that allow players to opt back into the market as early as next offseason, Conforto’s chances of reaching that goal of a multi-year deal with an opt-out seems attainable.

Marlins, Rangers Interested In Michael Conforto

By Anthony Franco | December 16, 2022 at 6:41pm CDT

6:41pm: The Rangers are also involved in the Conforto market, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Texas general manager Chris Young told reporters coming out of the Winter Meetings they were hoping to address left field, where rookies Bubba Thompson, Ezequiel Duran and Josh Smith look like the in-house favorites for playing time. That corner outfield vacancy makes Conforto a fairly obvious target, particularly with Andrew Benintendi’s five-year deal with the White Sox taking the top free agent left fielder off the board.

1:09pm: The Marlins have shown some interest in free agent outfielder Michael Conforto, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman also lists the Astros and Cubs, both of whom have been previously linked to the Boras Corporation client, as teams with interest.

Miami entered the offseason searching for offensive help. They’ve done essentially nothing thus far, with the only noteworthy move being the non-tender of Brian Anderson. The Marlins hit just .230/.294/.363 in 2022, finishing 27th in on-base percentage and 28th in slugging. Spacious Marlins Park hasn’t done their batters any favors, but Miami’s offense was one of the league’s worst even after accounting for home environment. By measure of wRC+, which adjusts for park, the Marlins were 12 percentage points worse than the average hitting team — the sixth-lowest mark in the league.

Most of the Miami offense underperformed, with second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. their only standout hitter. That gives general manager Kim Ng and her staff myriad positions they could look to address. The outfield, which Miami thought they’d fixed last offseason, posed particular problems. Avisaíl García fell flat with a career-worst .224/.266/.317 showing in the first season of a four-year free agent deal. Jorge Soler, inked to a three-year deal after a massive postseason showing in 2021, managed just a .207/.295/.400 mark with subpar defense in left field.

The Marlins gave extended auditions to young players Jesús Sánchez and Bryan De La Cruz. Neither ran away with an everyday job, with both reaching base at a sub-.300 clip. Sánchez and De La Cruz each showed interesting power potential, but they both struck out more often than average while walking at a subpar clip. Of that group, only Sánchez — who spent most of the season’s second half in Triple-A after being optioned — hits left-handed.

Bringing in a lefty-swinging outfielder makes plenty of sense, and Conforto’s one of the more interesting options available. The 29-year-old missed all of 2022 recovering from an offseason injury to his right shoulder that required surgery. He’s not expected to have any health limitations by next spring, but the lost year raises some questions about how he’ll respond after such a long layoff.

Conforto wasn’t even at his best before the surgery, as his 2021 campaign was his worst in a while. He hit .232/.344/.384 over 479 plate appearances for the division-rival Mets in 2021. That’d still be an upgrade over the production Miami received from any of their outfielders last season, but it’s well shy of the .265/.369/.495 cumulative line Conforto had posted from 2017-20.

With his value at a low ebb, Conforto is looking for a bounceback opportunity. Agent Scott Boras has suggested he expects Conforto land a multi-year guarantee this offseason, one that allows him to opt out and retest free agency at the end of the 2023 campaign. Boras reiterated that sentiment when speaking with Anthony DiComo of MLB.com yesterday (Twitter link). That’s a rather lofty goal for a player coming off a season lost to shoulder surgery, and it remains to be seen if a team is willing to guarantee him multiple years.

While Conforto’s bat would be a welcome addition to the Miami lineup, he’s not an ideal fit from a positional perspective. He hasn’t played a single inning of center field since 2019, and his early-career defensive metrics there were very poor. Conforto’s a solid defender in the corner outfield, but he’s even less likely to be an option up-the-middle after surgery on his throwing shoulder. Miami reportedly prefers to push Soler more fully into designated hitter work in 2023, so Conforto and García could take the corners. That’d require leaning on Sánchez, De La Cruz or JJ Bleday again in center field, where each player is probably miscast. Of course, with an already shallow center field market having been picked clean, the Marlins may no longer have a viable alternative to rolling out another mediocre defensive outfield.

The Astros have been tied to Conforto on a number of occasions this offseason, as they’re reportedly looking to install a left-handed bat into the corner outfield mix. The Cubs were previously linked to Conforto as well, although that was before they signed Cody Bellinger to play center field. That filled Chicago’s outfield, which already contained Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ in the corners. The Cubs don’t have a great option at designated hitter, though, which is presumably where they’re eyeing Conforto at this point. Seattle and both New York franchises were also linked to the Oregon State product at points this offseason.

Miami’s facing some competition in the Conforto market, but he shouldn’t be unattainable from a financial perspective. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote in September that owner Bruce Sherman was willing to sign off on a fairly modest payroll bump, but they’ve yet to dip into free agency thus far. The Fish have reportedly put forth an offer to former Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, who remains unsigned. Heyman writes Miami appears willing to make a two-year commitment to the 38-year-old, who’s coming off a .278/.350/.438 showing in Los Angeles.

Mariners, Astros Among Teams With Interest In Michael Conforto

By Anthony Franco | November 28, 2022 at 6:16pm CDT

Michael Conforto has drawn the attention of a number of teams in the outfield market, and a pair of AL West contenders are apparently in the mix. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets the Mariners are showing interest in the former All-Star, while Brian McTaggart of MLB.com writes the Astros also have Conforto on their radar. Both New York teams and the Cubs have previously been tied to the Boras Corporation client.

There’s little surprise with either development. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times wrote last week that Seattle was open to adding another outfielder, and they’ve since been tied to Andrew Benintendi and Brandon Nimmo. A Washington native, Conforto has ties to the Pacific Northwest that could be an ancillary bonus for Seattle. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last week the Astros were looking to bring in a lefty-swinging outfielder, making Conforto a sensible target. Houston was linked to him this past summer, but no deal materialized at the time.

Conforto’s a buy-low target for outfield-needy clubs. He posted an excellent .265/.369/.495 line in just shy of 2000 plate appearances for the Mets from 2017-20. After a .232/.344/.384 showing during his platform campaign in 2021, Conforto lingered on the open market upon turning down a qualifying offer from New York. He reportedly suffered a right shoulder injury during the lockout, and he underwent surgery in April. Conforto was able to begin swinging a few months later, but the rehab process prevented him from throwing during the season. While there was some chatter he could sign with a team late in the 2022 season to serve as a designated hitter or bench bat, that didn’t come to pass.

On the heels of that lost season, Scott Boras has suggested Conforto is looking for a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out after the first season. If that doesn’t prove attainable, it stands to reason he could pivot to a straight one-year deal to get back to free agency at the end of next year. There’s no longer any draft compensation attached to Conforto, so teams figure to be more willing to take a shot on him returning to form than they were this past spring after the shoulder injury.

It seems the 29-year-old (30 next March) continues to progress well from the surgery. Conforto has long since been cleared to begin hitting, and Morosi tweeted this afternoon he’s also begun a throwing program. There doesn’t figure to be much issue building his arm back into game shape by the time Spring Training rolls around, positioning him back in the corner outfield mix for clubs.

The Mariners have two outfield spots accounted for in Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández, but they’re open to upgrades over the contingent of Jesse Winker, Taylor Trammell, Jarred Kelenic and Sam Haggerty in left field and at designated hitter. The Astros have Kyle Tucker locked into right field, while Chas McCormick has the inside track on the center field job. Yordan Alvarez is slated to split time between left field and designated hitter, but Houston’s scoring the market for another lefty bat to serve the role Michael Brantley filled the past few seasons.

Brantley is coming off shoulder surgery of his own — his procedure coming in August. McTaggart suggests the club isn’t closing the door on retaining Brantley for a fifth season, but there’s a bit more uncertainty on the five-time All-Star’s status since he underwent his surgery more recently than Conforto has.

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