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Merrill Kelly

NL West Notes: Kelly, Pham, Dodgers, Padres, Preller

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Merrill Kelly’s gem of an outing in Game 2 has made him the talk of baseball, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal took a look back at the right-hander’s unique path to the World Series stage.  Beginning his career in the Rays’ farm system, Kelly signed with the KBO League’s SK Wyverns and spent four seasons pitching in South Korea, despite feeling an urge to return to North American baseball halfway through that stint.  Still, pitching in the KBO League sparked Kelly’s career to the point that Diamondbacks had interest in a free agent deal during the 2018-19 offseason, and Kelly signed a two-year, $5.5MM deal with club options attached for 2021 and 2022.

This was the only multi-year offer Kelly received that winter, so he jumped at the chance at some extra security as he made his MLB debut at age 30.  Between that initial contract and a subsequent extension signed prior to the 2022 season, Kelly’s time in Arizona has now included five seasons, at least $32.5MM in guaranteed salary, and now a key role in the postseason.  Kelly has a 2.25 ERA over four starts and 24 innings in these playoffs, and holds an interesting distinction as the first pitcher to earn a win in both the Korean Series (helping the Wyverns capture the 2018 title) and the World Series.

Some more from around the NL West….

  • Before the Diamondbacks picked up Tommy Pham from the Mets at the trade deadline, the Dodgers were known to be one of several other teams who considered acquiring the veteran outfielder.  Pham told Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times that he wanted to join the Dodgers last offseason, but president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman twice turned down overtures from Pham’s agent, as L.A. was focused on adding a left-handed hitting outfielder instead.  David Peralta ended up being that lefty swinging outfielder, and while Peralta had a subpar season, Pham hit .256/.328/.446 over 481 combined PA with the Mets and D’Backs this season.  Pham has continued to contribute during Arizona’s playoff run, including a four-hit night in Game 2 of the World Series.
  • A.J. Preller’s management style as the Padres’ president of baseball operations has come under increased criticism due to the team’s disappointing 2023 season, as well as the reported discord between Preller and now-former manager Bob Melvin.  Preller spoke with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and other reporters about what he is looking for in hiring the Padres’ next skipper, with Acee adding details and anecdotes within the piece related to Preller’s approach, his (to some, overbearing) attention to detail, and the communication breakdown that occurred between Preller and Melvin over the last year.

Diamondbacks Designate José Ruiz For Assignment

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The Diamondbacks announced that they have reinstated right-hander Merrill Kelly from the injured list, with righty José Ruiz designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Their 40-man roster count drops to 39.

Ruiz, 28, began the year with the White Sox but was lit up for nine earned runs in 3 2/3 innings before being designated for assignment. That was obviously a small sample and Ruiz had fared better in prior campaigns. Coming into this year, he had a 4.17 ERA in 174 appearances, striking out 23% of opponents and keeping the ball on the ground at a 40.6% clip, though his 11.1% walk rate was on the high side.

The Diamondbacks decided to ignore the early results from this year and bank on that track record, sending cash considerations to the White Sox in order to skip the waiver queue. Ruiz has gone on to throw 40 2/3 innings for the Snakes this year with a 4.43 ERA, along with a 19.8% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 42.4% ground ball rate. That’s obviously an improvement over how his season started but still fairly uninspiring overall. He’s also been struggling of late, with an 8.22 ERA in 7 2/3 innings since the calendar flipped to July, which surely helped to nudge him off the roster. Ruiz is out of options, so the only way for the club to open a spot for Kelly was to designate him for assignment.

The D’Backs will now have one week to trade Ruiz or pass him through waivers. Players with more than three years of service time or a previous career outright have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency, with Ruiz qualifying on both accounts. However, since he has less than five years of service time, he would have to forfeit his remaining salary in order to exercise that right. He and the White Sox avoided arbitration with an agreement for a $925K salary for this season, which is a bit above the $720K minimum this year. In the event he clears waivers, he might decide to accept an assignment to Triple-A Reno instead of leaving money on the table.

Kelly returns to the rotation after missing almost a month due to calf inflammation. He slots in next to Zac Gallen, Ryne Nelson, Tommy Henry and Brandon Pfaadt for now, though general Mike Hazen has stated the club will be looking for upgrades. They’ve recently been connected to high-profile pitchers like Lucas Giolito and Shohei Ohtani, though the next week will determine whether or not they can be successful in those pursuits. The deadline in on August 1.

Diamondbacks Place Merrill Kelly On IL, Option Joe Mantiply

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The Diamondbacks announced a series of roster moves today, with right-hander Merrill Kelly being placed on the 15-day injured list due to right calf inflammation, retroactive to June 25. They also optioned left-hander Joe Mantiply to Triple-A Reno. In corresponding moves, righties Kevin Ginkel and Justin Martinez were recalled from Reno.

At this point, it’s unclear how serious Kelly’s injury is, but it’s a notable loss for the club nonetheless. The Diamondbacks have a fairly top-heavy rotation with Kelly and Zac Gallen being the two most effective members. Gallen has an excellent 2.84 ERA on the year and Kelly isn’t far behind with a 3.22 mark. Then there’s a notable drop to the 4.31 ERA of Tommy Henry, the 4.97 of Ryne Nelson and the 7.82 of Zach Davies.

The Diamondbacks are leading the National League West but have a couple of clubs on their heels as each of the Dodgers and Giants are within three games. With the All-Star break now effectively two weeks away, they will have to forge ahead without Kelly for at least that long. Drey Jameson has been with the big league club in a long relief role and could perhaps step into the rotation. Brandon Pfaadt got some big league starts earlier this year but posted an 8.37 ERA in those before getting optioned back down. Konnor Pilkington is also on the 40-man but has been struggling in the minors this year.

As for Mantiply, he posted a 2.85 ERA last year and even got selected to the All-Star game but has taken a step back this year. He’s gone on the injured list a couple of times already, once due to left shoulder inflammation and another time for a right hamstring strain. Around those ailments, he’s tossed 15 2/3 innings with a 5.74 ERA. His peripherals are still pretty similar to last year’s as a 50.8% strand rate seems to be pushing his ERA up. Nonetheless, he now finds himself headed to Reno to get into a groove.

Martinez, 21, will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. He served largely as a starting pitcher in the lower levels of the minors but required Tommy John surgery in 2021. After a long injury layoff and the minor leagues getting cancelled by the pandemic in 2020, he came back as a reliever last year. He tossed 38 innings across four different levels, finishing the year at Triple-A. He posted a 3.32 ERA in that time with an incredible 36.7% strikeout rate but 13% walk rate.

Despite the free passes, the club was intrigued enough to add him to the roster in November to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. This year, he’s been in Triple-A, tossing 28 innings thus far. He has a 4.18 ERA, striking out 29.7% of opponents but with an astonishing 21.1% walk rate. Despite the control issues, he was recently ranked the club’s #21 prospect at Baseball America and #12 at FanGraphs.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Looking At The Diamondbacks’ Rotation Options

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It’s been a rough few years for the Diamondbacks. After making the playoffs in 2017 and then posting respectable records above .500 in the two following seasons, the last three campaigns have seen their fortunes sink. They finished last in the National League West in 2020 and 2021, then surpassed the Rockies last year for a fourth place finish. During that time, the Dodgers, Giants and Padres have all had strong seasons, making the efforts of the D-Backs feel particularly hopeless. In 2021, they finished 52-110 and 55 games out in the division.

2022 was a step in the right direction, though, and there are some exciting ingredients in place. The position player mix seems to have a lot of good momentum behind it. Even after dealing Daulton Varsho to the Blue Jays, the outfield should feature a crop of exciting youngsters, headlined by Corbin Carroll but with Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy also in the mix. On the infield, Ketel Marte is capable of MVP-level production when healthy and at his best. Christian Walker is underrated at first base while shortstop Jordan Lawlar and catcher Gabriel Moreno are considered some of the best prospects in the league.

However, the pitching staff is a bit more precarious at the moment. In 2022, the position players posted a cumulative tally of 19.8 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs, good enough for 15th place in the majors. But the pitchers posted a total of 7.7 fWAR, ranking them 27th. If the team is to re-emerge and start contending again, they will need to get better results from the mound. There were some potentially encouraging developments in their rotation in 2022, but still some uncertainty going forward into 2023.

It’s possible that the club will make further additions via free agency but it’s also possible that they’re done. The club’s payroll is now at $113MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. They’ve been as high as $132MM in the past, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but they were at just $91MM last year. That means they’ve already boosted the budget by more than $20MM. For now, let’s take a look at the in-house options, starting with the four veterans.

Zac Gallen

Gallen, 27, seemed to emerge as an ace in 2019 and 2020, making 27 starts with a 2.78 ERA. He had a swoon in 2021, dealing with various injuries and his ERA jumped to 4.30, but he was back in form last year. In 2022, he made 31 starts and logged 184 innings with a 2.54 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. He finished fifth in the voting for the National League Cy Young award and can be controlled via arbitration for three more seasons.

Merrill Kelly

Kelly, 34, parlayed a strong run in the KBO into a two-year deal with the Diamondbacks prior to the 2019 season. That deal also came with a pair of club options. Kelly pitched well enough that they triggered both options and then gave him an extension that runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025. Through four seasons with Arizona so far, he has a 3.96 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. He’s certainly a notch below Gallen, but he’s a solid mid-rotation option for the club.

Madison Bumgarner

After spending over a decade with the Giants, Bumgarner came to the D-Backs prior to the 2020 season on a five-year, $85MM deal. Unfortunately, his results immediately took a nosedive after the uniform switch. He had a 3.13 career ERA in his time with the Giants but has posted a 4.98 mark in his three seasons as a Snake. His walk rate is still better than average but his strikeouts have vanished. He punched out 23.9% of opponents on his previous team but it’s been just a 17.7% rate for Arizona. Now 33 years old, it’s hard to expect a sudden bounceback, though the Diamondbacks might give him a chance to try since he still has two years and $37MM left on his deal. That gives him negative trade value at this point and it would be a lot of cash to eat for a Diamondbacks team that’s never been a top spender. However, his salary goes from $23MM this year to $14MM in 2024, which could make some kind of transaction more plausible if he can find better results in 2023.

Zach Davies

Davies, 30 in February, pitched for the D-Backs in 2022. He didn’t blow anyone away but he was passable enough. He made 27 starts with a 4.09 ERA. His 17.9% strikeout rate was a few ticks below average but his 9.1% walk rate and 42.9% ground ball rate were both right around league average. He used his five-pitch mix to keep hitters from doing damage, as his hard hit rate was in the 76th percentile among qualified pitchers and his average exit velocity was in the 75th. The club agreed to a new one-year deal with him yesterday, bringing him back to hopefully provide some steady production while they evaluate their younger pitchers.

Ryne Nelson

If those four pitchers are healthy and throwing well, there will be one spot remaining for a younger pitcher. Nelson will certainly be in that mix to secure the final job. He was selected by Arizona in the second round of the 2019 draft and has been considered one of the club’s better prospects since then. He even cracked Baseball America’s top 100 list of all prospects in the league going into 2022. Last year saw him spend most of his time with the Triple-A Reno Aces, who play in the Pacific Coast League. He made 26 starts for that club with a 5.43 ERA in what is a notoriously hitter-friendly environment. His 21.6% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate were solid enough for him to get a major league debut in September. He made three starts in the big leagues with a 1.47 ERA, striking out 23.2% of batters faced while walking 8.7% of them. That’s a very small sample size but an encouraging one nonetheless. He’ll turn 25 in February and still has a full slate of options. He could certainly be sent back to Triple-A but an extended audition at the big leagues could be warranted as well.

Drey Jameson

Jameson and Nelson have a very similar trajectory to this point. Jameson was also selected in the 2019 draft, just ahead of Nelson by being selected between the first and second rounds, with the pick the club received for AJ Pollock signing with the Dodgers. Jameson began 2022 in Double-A but posted a 2.41 ERA in four starts and got quickly moved up to Triple-A. With the Aces, he posted a 6.95 ERA in 114 innings in that pitcher-hostile environment. However, his rate stats were decent, striking out 21.2% of hitters, walking 8.2% of them and getting grounders on 48.6% of balls in play. He also got called up to the big leagues in September, just like Nelson, making four starts with a 1.48 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 56.1% ground ball rate. Just like Nelson, he’ll be 25 years old this season and has a full slate of options. The two seem likely to be battling each other for the final rotation spot with one likely to be optioned, but they could also both be in the mix as soon as an injury pops up.

Tommy Henry

Just like Nelson and Jameson, Henry was also nabbed in the 2019 draft. He was selected in competitive balance round B, between the second and third rounds. He posted stronger Triple-A results than the other two last year, with a 3.74 ERA over 21 starts. However, his first taste of the big leagues didn’t go as smooth as he made nine starts with a 5.36 ERA, striking out just 17.6% of hitters while walking 10.2% of them. He’s also 25 and provides a third competitor in the battle for the last rotation job, but it’s possible he’s a bit behind Nelson and Jameson based on his weaker debut. He still has a full slate of options and could be in line for more work in the minors, ready to make the jump again when needed and ready.

Brandon Pfaadt

Pfaadt, 24, began 2022 in Double-A, making 19 starts and logging 105 1/3 innings there. His 4.53 ERA might not look special, but he posted that number despite striking out 32.2% of batters faced and walking just 4.3% of them. A .370 batting average on balls in play surely inflated that ERA to a level higher than he deserved, though 17.9% of his fly balls turning into home runs may have contributed as well. The D-Backs seemed to be willing to look past that ERA, bumping him to Triple-A in August. Pfaadt took very well to the move, despite the strong offensive environment. He tossed 61 2/3 innings over 10 starts for the Aces with a 2.63 ERA, 30.6% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. Based on that strong finish, he has surged up prospect rankings. He currently has the #83 slot at Baseball America, is #90 at MLB Pipeline, but FanGraphs is especially bullish and considers him the 25th best prospect in the league. He’s not yet on the club’s 40-man roster since he was only drafted in 2020 and isn’t Rule 5 eligible until this coming December, but he seems destined to make a big league debut well before then.

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When combined, there are some strong elements here for the D-Backs. Gallen gives them an ace and Kelly a solid piece for the middle of the rotation. Davies isn’t terribly exciting but is fine as a backend piece. Bumgarner’s contract is underwater at this point, but he could also be a solid backend guy if he puts the past three years behind him. Those four combined don’t give the club an especially strong rotation, but the four guys behind them give the overall group plenty of upside. If one or two of the young guys have a breakout in 2023, then the rotation picture starts to look much better.

The position player core in Arizona is heavily future-focused, with Carroll, Thomas, Marte, Moreno, Lawlar and others starting to develop into a strong core that could allow the club to continually improve over the coming seasons. With the rotation, the path forward could be very similar. Prospects aren’t sure things, especially when it comes to pitchers, but the Diamondbacks need to hit on young players if they’re not going to spend like the Dodgers, Padres and Giants. For now, there are signs of hope in the desert and the upcoming season will be a fascinating one to watch.

Hazen: Diamondbacks Have Flexibility For At Least Slight Payroll Bump

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The Diamondbacks head into the offseason looking to bolster a roster that showed some promise in the second half. General manager Mike Hazen indicated last month the team was prioritizing adding swing-and-miss to the bullpen and was looking for another right-handed bat, and he suggested this week the front office should have financial breathing room for some additions.

“I think we’re going to have some room to move,” Hazen told reporters at the GM Meetings (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). “When we’ve felt like the team has gotten better, (owner Ken Kendrick) has usually given us leeway to maneuver. I think that’s going to be the case to some degree. I don’t know that we’re going to get to levels where we’ve been in the recent past, but I think we’re going to have some flexibility to do some things. I think the talent on our team warrants some additional good players.”

That’s not the resounding promise for a payroll spike for which the fanbase was probably hoping, although it does suggest they’ll be able to dip into free agency for help. Arizona signed only three free agents — Mark Melancon, Ian Kennedy and Zach Davies — to big league contracts last winter, tacking on a modest $12MM on the open market. The Snakes entered the 2022 campaign with a player payroll just under $91MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, their second straight year between $90MM and $96MM.

Before the pandemic-shortened season, Arizona pushed spending north of $120MM in both 2018-19. Hazen’s comments downplay the possibility of getting back to those heights in 2023, but it doesn’t seem out of the question the team could push above $100MM in Opening Day payroll for the first time since 2020.

A relief corps that had the majors lowest strikeout rate figures to be a key priority. Arizona already bought low on a reliever with decent swing-and-miss ability, claiming Cole Sulser off waivers from the Marlins this week. That’s just one of what should be multiple additions, although an already-thin free agent relief market has seen arguably its top two players (Edwin Díaz and Robert Suarez) agree to re-sign with their previous teams. That leaves Taylor Rogers, Rafael Montero, Carlos Estévez, Seth Lugo, Andrew Chafin, Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin among the top arms available, although the D-Backs are sure to look into trades and/or waivers for additional options.

One other key offseason storyline for the D-Backs is whether they’d deal from their stable of upper level outfielders. Arizona has seen Daulton Varsho and Corbin Carroll emerge as key pieces of the future, while Jake McCarthy had a strong 2022 campaign to earn everyday reps. Alek Thomas didn’t hit the ground running at the big league level, but he’s a high-contact center fielder who entered the year as a top prospect. The Snakes could certainly hang onto that depth, but Hazen has spoken on a number of occasions about a willingness to entertain trade offers on members of that group.

The GM reiterated this week that dealing an outfielder is a possibility, but he emphasized he’d only do so in a move that brought back immediate MLB talent. “I’m not trading them for prospects. The prospect trade is out,” Hazen said (via Piecoro). “You can take that off the table. It’ll have to be (an established or major league ready player) and at a caliber for us that we felt like we were equally maintaining (value).”

Hazen pointed out the outfield would have a trickle-down effect on how the team approaches the designated hitter position. He suggested the current outfield depth was likely to spill over to rotating players through the DH spot but acknowledged pursuing a full-fledged DH could be more realistic with a trade that ships away an outfielder. Hazen, a former Red Sox executive, pointed to David Ortiz in suggesting he’s not opposed to having an everyday DH in the right circumstances. The D-Backs certainly aren’t going to find a hitter on the level of the Hall of Fame slugger, but old friend J.D. Martinez is an impact free agent righty bat. Nelson Cruz is coming off a terrible year but could find a big league opportunity, while players like Justin Turner and Evan Longoria could fit as hybrids between a questionable third base position and DH in the desert.

Certainly, Arizona could look to the trade market for their desired right-handed bat as well — perhaps in a deal that sends out one of their lefty-swinging young outfielders. What’s clear is the Diamondbacks aren’t approaching the offseason as a rebuilder or traditional “seller,” however. To that end, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported this week Arizona has no plans to trade Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly this offseason. Dealing away either of their top two starters — each of whom is controllable through 2025 — never seemed especially  likely after Arizona’s somewhat promising end to the season, particularly with the club having a number of unproven options at the back end. Rosenthal suggests the D-Backs would unsurprisingly be open to shedding some of the two years and $37MM remaining on Madison Bumgarner’s contract, although finding another team willing to take a notable chunk of that money probably isn’t happening unless Arizona shoulders an undesirable contract in return.

Diamondbacks Extend Merrill Kelly

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The Diamondbacks announced Friday that they’ve signed right-hander Merrill Kelly to a two-year contract extension, covering the 2023-24 seasons. There’s a club option for the 2025 season as well. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that Kelly will be guaranteed $18MM in new money on the contract. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds that the right-hander will receive a $1MM signing bonus and earn $8MM in each of the 2023 and 2024 seasons. The 2025 club option is valued at $7MM and comes with a $1MM buyout. Kelly is represented by Apex Baseball.

Merrill Kelly | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The new contract for Kelly  ought to put any trade speculation to rest for the foreseeable future. Kelly was an oft-mentioned trade candidate prior to the 2021 deadline given his solid production for a noncontending D-backs club and a contract that, prior to today’s announcement, only ran through the 2022 season. Instead, he’ll join recently extended Ketel Marte as a consistent presence for a D-backs team that clearly has no plans to tear down or take a step back despite last year’s poor showing and a stacked division.

Kelly, 33, had been slated to earn $5.25MM this season before reaching free agency for the first time next winter. That $5.25MM salary was locked in after Arizona picked up a club option on Kelly, who originally joined the D-backs on a two-year, $5.5MM deal with a pair of options after a strong run pitching in the Korea Baseball Organization.

Prior to signing in Arizona, Kelly had never thrown a pitch in the Majors. An eighth-round pick of the Rays back in 2010, Kelly never got a look in the Majors with Tampa Bay before being lured to the KBO after a strong run in the upper minors. He spent the 2015-18 seasons pitching for the KBO’s SK Wyverns — now the SSG Landers — where he logged a 3.86 ERA with a 20.6% strikeout rate and a 6.6% walk rate.

That showing was enough to entice the D-backs to bring him back stateside on a guaranteed multi-year deal, and Kelly has rewarded the D-backs with three years of solid performance to date. In 427 2/3 innings, he’s posted a 4.27 ERA with a 20.2% strikeout rate, a 6.6% walk rate and a 43.1% grounder rate. Kelly made 32 starts in his first big league season and another 27 last year. His 2020 campaign was cut short by thoracic outlet surgery, but he was the rare pitcher who immediately bounced back from TOS to produce quality results the following season.

Given the solid nature of Kelly’s work since that big league debut, it’s a rather risk-averse decision to take a reasonably priced extension with free agency just a few months away. That said, given his recent injury and the fact that he didn’t cash in on his first Major League deal until his age-30 season, it’s plenty understandable that he’d opt for the security of a new deal right now. The $18MM in new guarantees will more than double his career earnings, after all. And, in putting pen to paper on this deal, he’ll further establish himself as an aspirational benchmark for little-known players who sign overseas in hopes of eventually cashing in upon a return to North American ball.

With Kelly now locked into a steady back-of-the-rotation spot, he’ll be counted on alongside Madison Bumgarner, Zac Gallen and Luke Weaver to round out the starting staff both this year and into future seasons. Veteran right-hander Zach Davies, signed to a one-year deal in March, non-roster righty Dan Straily (another KBO returnee), lefty Tyler Gilbert and prospect Corbin Martin are among the other options for the Diamondbacks as they look to rebound from last year’s woeful 52-110 showing.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: 27 Regulars Who Could Plausibly Change Teams

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In recent days, MLBTR has taken a look at some players who could find themselves on the move between the conclusion of the lockout and the start of the season. First, Tim Dierkes looked at the league’s 14 likeliest trade candidates. Steve Adams then ran through some impact players who, to varying degrees, could find themselves in trade rumors whenever transactions resume.

Today we’ll look at other regulars who we could envision changing uniforms in the relatively near future. Acquiring any of the players on today’s list wouldn’t be quite as splashy as landing the stars we covered last week, but it’s easy to envision any one of them assuming an important, regular role on a new team.

Before we get into the list, a quick note on methodology. In defining “plausible” trade candidates, we looked at players we felt had somewhere between a 20% and 50% chance of being dealt before the start of the season. It’s not meant to be an exhaustive list of trade possibilities — almost any player around the league could theoretically move if another team made the right offer — but it’s meant to capture a tier of regulars we wouldn’t be surprised to see change hands. In an exercise of this nature, there has to be a somewhat arbitrary line that delineates the last of the players who, in our view, are “plausible” trade candidates. Players like Gary Sánchez and Jesús Aguilar were discussed internally but fell just on the other side of that line.

Now, on to the list. The players are ordered by what we feel to be their likelihood of getting traded (all arbitration projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):

John Means, Orioles SP

Buster Olney of ESPN reported in November that the Orioles were “dangling” Means in trade talks. Baltimore’s rebuilding and seemingly amenable to offers on anyone on the roster, but it remains to be seen how actively they’ll push to make their top starting pitcher available. With Means controllable through 2024 and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary, the O’s needn’t force a deal this offseason.

The 28-year-old presents a tricky evaluation for teams. He got off to an excellent start to the season, posting a 2.28 ERA (albeit with a 4.20 FIP) through his first 71 innings. Means then landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. After returning in July, he posted a 4.88 ERA down the stretch, watching his strikeout rate tumble almost six percentage points in the process. The medical evaluation will be critical, but teams that are comfortable with the state of Means’ shoulder moving forward might expect him to regain the strong mid-rotation form he showed early in the year.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers SS/3B

Kiner-Falefa has been a solid regular for the Rangers for the past couple seasons. He spent 2020 at third base, then was tasked with moving up the defensive spectrum to shortstop last year. Defensive Runs Saved loved his glovework at short; Statcast’s Outs Above Average did not. Kiner-Falefa finished third in the 2021 Fielding Bible shortstop award voting. There’s not much question he’s a very good defender at the hot corner, and most teams would probably at least feel comfortable with him moonlighting at shortstop if need be.

Texas remade their middle infield in free agency, signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Kiner-Falefa could kick back to third base, but the Rangers have top prospect Josh Jung nearing big league readiness at the position. Controllable for two more seasons and projected for a $4.9MM salary, he could stick around as a utility guy. But if another team buys him as a plus defender at shortstop, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas ship him somewhere he can continue playing everyday. Kiner-Falefa’s .271/.312/.357 line fits better at the bottom of a lineup, but he brings good contact skills and a solid infield glove to the table. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade at greater length this afternoon.

Raimel Tapia, Rockies LF

Reports out of Denver have suggested the Rockies could look to move Tapia, projected for a $3.9MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration-eligible season. The Rox need to bolster an offense that was among the league’s worst last year, and they’re seemingly planning to make a splash in the corner outfield. That’d probably push Tapia — who’s spent almost his entire MLB career in left field — out of the everyday lineup.

Tapia has never hit at the level one would hope from an everyday left fielder. One could argue he’s better suited for a fourth outfield role regardless. He’s a plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills, though, and he ranked among Baseball America’s top 50 overall prospects back in 2017. It’s certainly not out of the question another team takes a flier on him, particularly if the Rockies are willing to take a minimal return after acquiring his replacement.

Chris Paddack, Padres SP

The pre-lockout agreement with Nick Martínez bumped a bunch of the Friars’ younger arms down a peg on the rotation depth chart. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, that could pave the way for them to move one of their controllable starters. If they do, Paddack looks the likeliest of the bunch. He’s arbitration-eligible and projected for a $2.1MM salary. That’s certainly affordable, but the Padres could be looking to open some payroll space after exceeding the luxury tax threshold last year.

Paddack has had back-to-back down seasons after a promising rookie campaign. But he’s still only 26 years old, boasts pristine control, and teams can dream on him recapturing his 2019 form. That he’s controllable for three seasons could be of particular appeal to teams like the Rangers and Nationals (who expressed interest at last summer’s deadline) who might be eyeing 2023 as a more plausible contention year.

Ryan Yarbrough, Rays SP

Yarbrough has been a flexible member of the Rays pitching staff for the past few years. He’s worked variably as a traditional long reliever, a bulk man behind an opener and as a true starting pitcher. Yarbrough posted an ERA of 4.13 or lower in each of his first three seasons, but he scuffled to a 5.11 mark in 2021. That came without meaningful changes to his strikeout and walk numbers, though, and Yarbrough remained excellent at avoiding hard contact.

The Rays likely anticipate the southpaw will return to form, but his price is escalating. Tampa Bay is already projected for a franchise-record payroll, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they move some of their arbitration-eligible players for pre-arb or minor league talent. Yarbrough is projected for a $4.4MM salary and remains under team control through 2024.

Austin Meadows, Rays LF/DH

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote over the weekend that the Rays could be open to moving Meadows, who is projected for a $4.3MM salary. Controllable through 2024, Meadows would be a long-term option for Tampa Bay or any potential acquiring team, but the Rays have proven willing to field offers on almost anyone on the roster. And with the aforementioned payroll outlook for the typically low-spending club, the front office figures to be amenable to ways to pare back costs.

Meadows is coming off a decent season, in which he hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 homers over 591 plate appearances. That marked a bounceback from a below-average offensive showing during the shortened 2020 schedule, but it’s a fair bit shy of his career-best .291/.364/.558 line the season before that. Meadows isn’t a great defender, so he needs to mash to be a star. He did that in 2019, but he’s otherwise been a good-not-great hitter. That’s still a valuable player to have on hand, but unless the Rays anticipate him replicating his peak season this year, it’d be sensible to listen to offers.

Tony Kemp, Athletics 2B/LF

Kemp has bounced around the league a bit in recent seasons. He plays second base and left field, but advanced metrics have pegged him as a fringy defender at the keystone. Kemp doesn’t bring a ton of power to the table, and he’s already 30 years old. It’s not the easiest profile to make work, explaining why he has yet to find a long-term home.

There’s no questioning Kemp’s 2021 results, though. Over 397 plate appearances, he hit .279/.382/.418. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as worth around three wins above replacement. Kemp has excellent plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, and he could be trending towards a late-career emergence in the mold of former A’s second baseman Tommy La Stella. The market for teams on the hunt for second base help is pretty thin. Kemp, who avoided arbitration on a $2.25MM salary and is controllable through 2023, would be an affordable pickup if the A’s move him as part of their anticipated post-lockout efforts to trim payroll and reboot the roster.

Manuel Margot, Rays OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently looked at the possibility of the Rays making Margot available. He’s projected for a $5MM arbitration salary as he enters his final year of club control. That’s a reasonable salary for a player of Margot’s caliber, but Tampa Bay has plenty of cheaper, controllable outfielders on hand, and top prospect Josh Lowe looks ready to step into an everyday role somewhere in the grass after a monster season in Triple-A.

It’s not out of the question Tampa trades away multiple outfielders, but if they move the more expensive Kevin Kiermaier, Margot sticking around to handle center field is certainly possible. The latter might have broader appeal around the league, though. Not only is he set to make around a third of Kiermaier’s remaining guarantees, Statcast credited Margot with a league-best +16 Outs Above Average in the outfield last year. He’s never been more than an average hitter, but acceptable offense coupled with Gold Glove caliber defense is a very valuable player. There’s also a dearth of center fielders available in free agency at this point.

Max Kepler, Twins OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down Kepler’s trade candidacy at great length. Guaranteed $16.25MM through 2023 and controllable for 2024 via club option, he’d be an affordable target for teams seeking outfield help. Yet Kepler’s offensive production has ticked down towards league average following what seemed to be a breakout showing in 2019. The Twins might prefer to hold onto him in hopes he rediscovers that form, but they just extended Byron Buxton and have former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in the fold as corner outfield options. A Kepler deal could be a creative way to address some of the team’s other issues in the starting rotation or at shortstop.

Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays C

The Jays’ catching depth has been a topic of conversation throughout the offseason. Would Toronto part with one of their controllable backstops to land help in the rotation or infield? The signing of Kevin Gausman probably diminishes their need to land an impact starter via trade, although they’re likely to at least look for depth pieces.

Reese McGuire is a capable backup catcher who’s out of minor league options. Top prospect Gabriel Moreno is rapidly approaching and could be in the majors by the end of the season. Jansen offers a solid bend of power and defensive acumen, while Kirk has otherworldly bat-to-ball skills and an elite minor league track record. Toronto doesn’t have to move anyone from this group, but it could be an opportunity to consolidate their catching depth for help elsewhere on the roster.

Amed Rosario, Guardians SS/CF

Cleveland acquired Rosario from the Mets as part of the Francisco Lindor trade last offseason. His offensive numbers (.282/.321/.409) were fine, although neither Defensive Runs Saved nor Statcast was fond of his glovework at shortstop. Rosario’s aggressive approach at the plate will probably keep him from emerging as the star many envisioned he’d become as a prospect, but he has alright career hitting numbers, runs well and could be an option for teams at any of the up-the-middle positions on the diamond (aside from catcher).

The Guardians have a lot of infield depth, with several talented prospects in the high minors and already on the 40-man roster. With their seemingly annual need for outfield help, a Rosario trade could help balance the roster. Cleveland could also just give him more run in center or left field themselves, but it might be more straightforward to trade him to an infield-needy team with an outfield surplus. Rosario is projected for a $5MM salary and controllable through 2023.

Josh Bell, Nationals 1B

I covered Bell’s trade candidacy in greater length in late December. The Nationals are taking a step back in 2022, and he’s entering his final year of club control. A projected $10MM salary might scare away some suitors, but Bell would be a notable offensive upgrade for many teams around the league. The switch-hitter posted a .261/.347/.476 season-long mark, and he had an excellent 277/.381/.506 line with more walks than strikeouts after the All-Star Break.

Garrett Cooper, Marlins 1B/COF

Cooper has looked like a viable trade candidate for a few seasons. He’s part of a corner outfield/first base rotation in Miami that got a bit more crowded when the Fish signed Avisaíl García. The Marlins have suggested they could use García as their regular center fielder, but that’s less than ideal. If they land a center fielder after the lockout and push García to a more suitable right field role, Cooper might find himself squeezed for playing time.

A late bloomer, Cooper’s already 31 years old. He has quietly been a very productive hitter when healthy, though, including an excellent .284/.371/.478 line (133 wRC+) in 383 plate appearances since the start of 2020. Health is a big caveat for Cooper, who has had stints on the injured list in all five of his MLB seasons and missed the second half of last year with a left elbow injury. As MLBTR’s TC Zencka explored in December, he’d returned to taking batting practice and figures to be ready for 2022. Projected for a modest $3MM salary with an additional season of control thereafter, he could be an interesting flier, particularly for NL teams looking to add offense if/when the universal designated hitter is finalized.

Anthony Santander, Orioles RF/LF

Santander’s name has been floated around the rumor mill in years past. The Orioles are rebuilding, and he’s more of a complimentary piece than a likely member of the long-term core. Santander is limited to the corner outfield and has a very aggressive approach, though, making it crucial he makes plenty of contact and hits for power. He did that in the shortened 2020 season en route to a .261/.315/.575 line, but he couldn’t follow up on that success.

Last season, Santander had a couple injured list stints and struggled to a .241/.286/.433 mark. He signed for $3.15MM to avoid arbitration in November and remains controllable through 2024. Given their competitive window, the O’s would certainly listen to offers on Santander. But it remains to be seen whether there’ll be sufficient demand that Baltimore wouldn’t be better off hanging onto him and hoping he approximates his 2020 performance over the first few months of next season. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored Santander’s trade candidacy in greater depth.

Zach Plesac, Guardians SP

Plesac isn’t yet arbitration eligible and he’s controllable for another four seasons. The Guardians might simply prefer to hang onto him, particularly after their 2021 season was derailed by rotation injuries. Yet as mentioned with regards to Rosario, Cleveland has significant concerns in the outfield. They’ve dealt key starting pitchers over the past couple seasons, seemingly confident in their ability to continue to develop less-heralded prospects into capable rotation cogs.

If they were to deal a starter, Plesac would seem the likeliest candidate. The Guardians aren’t about to rebuild, and moving Shane Bieber or Aaron Civale might be too significant a blow to their hopes of contending in 2022. Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill might still have upside Cleveland’s hoping to unlock. Plesac’s small sample excellence in 2020 was probably inflated by a regional schedule against Central-division teams that, by and large, weren’t good offensively. That season aside, he hasn’t posted particularly impressive strikeout rates. But he’s got excellent control, gets a decent number of grounders, and should be a solid bet for league average rotation innings over the next few seasons.

Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks SP

The D-Backs were the worst team in the National League last season. They don’t seem to have the appetite for a full rebuild, but Kelly’s entering his final year of club control. At age 33, he’s probably not an extension candidate, so Arizona figures to be open to moving him.

Kelly’s not an overpowering arm. He posted a 4.44 ERA over 158 innings last season, striking out only 19.5% of batters faced. He throws plenty of strikes, though, and he gets a decent number of grounders. Playing on a modest $5.25MM salary, Kelly would be an eminently affordable pickup for contenders looking to stabilize the back of the rotation.

Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers, Twins C

Garver missed a good chunk of last season after suffering a gruesome injury. During his 243 plate appearances, he mashed at a .256/.358/.517 clip with 13 home runs (137 wRC+). That’s two of the past three seasons with some of the best offensive output of any catcher in baseball. He’s controllable for two seasons and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary. Jeffers hasn’t yet hit arbitration-eligibility and still has minor league options remaining. He struck out too often as a rookie, but he hit for power and is a well-regarded defender who entered the year among the sport’s top catching prospects.

As with Kepler, a trade of Garver or Jeffers would probably be about dealing from an area of surplus to address the rotation or shortstop. Both players could plausibly be regular catchers next season, and they’d lose some of their value if penciled into the DH role regularly. Given Garver’s injury troubles, Minnesota might prefer to hold their depth behind the dish.

Elieser Hernández, Marlins SP

The Marlins have reportedly fielded offers on their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers this winter, perhaps in search of controllable outfield help. Miami already thinned their rotation depth a bit by including Zach Thompson in the Jacob Stallings deal, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they make one more move in that vein.

Over the past two years, Hernández owns a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings with very strong strikeout and walk rates (26.3% and 5.7%, respectively). He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s likely to always have some difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. He missed most of 2021 recovering from a pair of long-term injuries (biceps inflammation and a quad strain). Because of those drawbacks, he won’t be in as much demand as rotation mate Pablo López. Yet another team may try to take a shot on Hernández’s promising strikeout/walk profile, particularly since he’s only projected for a $1.4MM salary and controllable through 2024.

Chris Stratton, Pirates RP

I covered Stratton’s trade candidacy at greater length in December. He’s a 31-year-old reliever controllable for two seasons on a rebuilding team. The Bucs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild, and it stands to reason they’d welcome the opportunity to pick up an intriguing low-level prospect. Over the past two seasons, Stratton has been the kind of capable if unexciting middle relief piece contending teams need. He won’t bring back a franchise-changing return, but at a projected $2.2MM salary, he should draw some interest.

Cole Sulser, Orioles RP

Sulser had a quietly strong second half with the Orioles, occasionally factoring into their closing mix. A late bloomer, he’ll be 32 by Opening Day. So while they’re under no contractual pressure to move him, the rebuilding O’s would certainly listen to offers. After putting up a 2.70 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, he should be of interest to contenders. Sulser isn’t yet arbitration eligible and can be controlled through 2025.

Adrian Houser/Eric Lauer, Brewers SP

The Brewers certainly aren’t obligated to trade either of Houser or Lauer, both of whom are coming off strong seasons. Still, the Brew Crew already have a vaunted top three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and prospects Aaron Ashby and Ethan Small are at or nearing the big leagues. Might Milwaukee plug one of the younger arms into the rotation and flip a veteran back-end starter for offensive help?

Adalberto Mondesi, Royals 3B/SS

Mondesi’s an enigmatic player. He brings an enviable combination of power and speed and has enough athleticism to play a competent or better shortstop. He also has among the worst strikeout and walk numbers of any regular position player in MLB. Perhaps most alarming, he’s dealt with enough injury issues in recent years that Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore expressed some doubt about his ability to play more than 100 games per season regularly.

Nicky Lopez played well enough to supplant Mondesi at shortstop last year. Bobby Witt Jr. will probably take that position early in 2022, pushing Lopez somewhere else on the dirt. Whit Merrifield is still around as a second base option. Kansas City might have enough infield depth to explore a Mondesi trade, although it’d be a bit of a sell-low on a player with obvious physical gifts who’s controllable through 2023. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary.

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs SP

Hendricks is guaranteed $29.5MM through the next two seasons, with a vesting option that could keep him in Chicago through 2024. The Cubs have moved most of their core players dating back to last offseason, but Hendricks remains on the North Side. That might be attributable to some uncharacteristic struggles, as the righty’s coming off a career-worst 4.77 ERA with unimpressive peripherals.

Hendricks has never struck batters out or fared exceptionally well in the eyes of ERA estimators, though. Until last season, his actual run prevention handily outperformed metrics like FIP and SIERA as he thrived on exceptional command. He’ll probably bounce back, even if he may never recapture his Cy Young-caliber, 2.13 ERA form from 2016. With the amount of teams on the hunt for starting pitching, there’d no doubt still be demand if the Cubs made Hendricks available. Will they? Perhaps, since they’re not likely to compete in 2022. Yet their early-offseason activity — signing Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman, claiming Wade Miley — has suggested they may not be keen to punt next season entirely.

Trey Mancini, Orioles 1B

The Orioles aren’t going to compete in 2022, and Mancini is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. Most players in his situation would be very straightforward trade candidates, but the first baseman is a fan favorite and reported clubhouse leader who made an inspiring return to the diamond last year after missing the 2020 campaign battling colon cancer.

That Mancini returned to play in 147 games after facing that kind of life obstacle is a remarkable achievement. It’s undeniable, though, that his production slipped relative to his excellent 2019 campaign. Mancini’s .255/.326/.432 line was only marginally above average, and he played exclusively first base and designated hitter. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him bounce back into a middle-of-the-order presence as he gets further away from beating cancer, but demand for his services might be limited until his production rebounds. If that’s the case, it’s probably not worth it for the O’s to trade him away this offseason. He’s projected for a $7.9MM salary, but Balitmore’s 2022 payroll ledger is wide open.

Diamondbacks To Exercise Option On Merrill Kelly, Decline Option On Kole Calhoun

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Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen provided details on two of the team’s three option decisions, as Hazen told The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro that the D’Backs will exercise their $5.25MM club option on righty Merrill Kelly and decline their $9MM club option on outfielder Kole Calhoun.  The fate of Tyler Clippard’s $3.5MM mutual option (with a $500K buyout) is still undecided, Hazen said.

There wasn’t much suspense in either decision, as Kelly had a pretty solid year in his return from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.  Kelly posted a 4.44 ERA over 158 innings, delivering his usual quality walk rate to help offset a lot of hard contact and a below-average strikeout rate.  The Diamondbacks are hoping Kelly can match or better this performance in 2022 as the team looks for more stability in the rotation.

Next season will be the final year of Arizona’s control over Kelly, as per the two-year, $5.5MM contract with two club options that he signed back in December 2018.  With this final option year now exercised, the deal will work out to a four-year, $14.5MM pact.

Calhoun signed a two-year, $16MM free agent to join his hometown D’Backs during the 2019-20 offseason, and hit .226/.338/.526 with 16 home runs over 228 plate appearances in the shortened 2020 season.  That solid performance was followed up by an injury-plagued 2021, as Calhoun underwent a knee surgery in Spring Training and then a left hamstring surgery less than two months later.  His rehab from that second procedure was extended by a setback, and Calhoun also spent another month on the IL with a strain in that same left hamstring late in the year.

All told, Calhoun appeared in only 51 games and hit .235/.297/.373 over 182 PA.  Calhoun might have been a trade chip had he been healthy, either back in July at the trade deadline or perhaps this winter, if he’d hit well enough for the Diamondbacks to exercise that club option.  Instead, the D’Backs will buy out that $9MM option for $2MM and Calhoun will hit the market in advance of his age-34 season.

A return to Arizona could be unlikely, as while Hazen praised Calhoun for being “awesome for us in and out of the clubhouse,” the D’Backs already have quite a few left-handed outfield options.  Calhoun hit both left-handed and right-handed pitching pretty evenly for a lot of his career, but over the last three seasons has developed more traditional splits.  It seems likely that Calhoun will catch on with another team in need of some veteran pop from the left side of the plate, and Calhoun’s right field glovework has remained pretty good, even amidst all his leg injuries in 2021.

Diamondbacks Activate Merrill Kelly

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The Diamondbacks have reinstated Merrill Kelly from the COVID-19 injured list. He’ll get the start this evening against the Dodgers, his first action in a month after he tested positive for the coronavirus. Tyler Gilbert was placed on the 10-day injured list with elbow fatigue in a corresponding move.

Kelly has been one of the D-Backs’ most reliable starters this year. While his promising 2020 campaign was cut short by thoracic outlet syndrome, the 32-year-old has bounced back and remained durable until his positive COVID diagnosis. Kelly has tossed 142 1/3 frames over 24 starts, working to a 4.30 ERA. He’s not missed many bats, but Kelly’s a great strike-thrower and has induced grounders at a roughly league average rate en route to solid production.

The final few weeks will offer Kelly an opportunity to make a handful of starts and hopefully demonstrate he’s returned to prior form after a month away. His contract contains an eminently affordable $5.25MM club option, which looks like a lock to be exercised. At that point, Kelly would become one of the offseason’s more notable trade candidates, with the Diamondbacks unlikely to compete next season. Plenty of more immediate contenders could use the affordable, mid-rotation stability Kelly brings and seem likely to be in contact with the Arizona front office over the winter.

To open space on the 40-man roster, the D-Backs recalled minor league reliever Kevin Ginkel and placed him on the major league 60-day injured list due to right elbow inflammation. The move officially ends his season, but Ginkel will pick up MLB service time and pay for the final few weeks. The 27-year-old has been up-and-down over the past three years, combining for a 4.72 ERA over 68 2/3 big league frames.

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