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Max Fried

Yankees Sign Max Fried

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The Yankees made their biggest move of the winter official, announcing Tuesday that they’ve signed left-hander Max Fried to an eight-year contract. The CAA client will reportedly be guaranteed a staggering $218MM on the deal, which does not include an deferrals or opt-out provisions but does include a full no-trade clause. Fried receives a $20MM signing bonus that’ll be paid out in two equal in January 2025 and ’26. He’ll make $12MM in salary for each of the first two seasons and be paid $29MM annually between 2027-32. Fried is set to be introduced at a press conference on Wednesday, which is scheduled for noon ET.

After losing the Juan Soto sweepstakes, the Yankees had plenty of money to outspend the rest of the field for his services and made use of those resources. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported earlier this evening that the Yanks were willing to offer Fried seven years, but they were evidently willing to going beyond that to get the market’s top unsigned southpaw on what is the largest contract for a lefty pitcher in MLB history, outbidding the club’s fellow finalists for Fried’s services in Boston and Dallas. It’s not hard to see what they like about the southpaw. Dating back to his first full season in 2019, Fried has a 3.07 ERA in 824 2/3 innings pitched. Only one pitcher in baseball has bested him in both categories during that time: Gerrit Cole, who he’ll now share the front of the Yankees rotation with.

That track record of dominance and durability that made Fried such an appealing target in the Bronx given the question marks that surround the rest of the club’s deep but flawed rotation mix. Carlos Rodón has been utterly dominant at times throughout his career, but he’s looked uneven in two seasons with the Yankees as he’s pitched to a 4.74 ERA and 4.77 FIP in 46 starts. Veteran righty Marcus Stroman has a long history of solid mid-rotation work, but he’s entering his age-34 season and did not make an appearance during the club’s run to the World Series this postseason. Nestor Cortes offers similar mid-rotation stability but struggled as recently as last year and is just one season away from free agency. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year winner Luis Gil and fellow youngster Clarke Schmidt both turned in promising seasons in 2024 but have checkered injury histories and minimal track records in the big leagues.

By contrast, Fried is the whole package. Since breaking out as a front-of-the-rotation arm with Atlanta, Fried’s 2.81 ERA is the third-best figure in all of baseball among qualified starters, bested only by Brandon Woodruff and Clayton Kershaw. While his 23.6% strikeout rate during that time doesn’t exactly jump off the page, his 6.3% walk rate is well above average and he’s also generated grounders at an impressive 54.2% clip that only Alex Cobb, Logan Webb, and Framber Valdez have bested. The southpaw’s grounder-heavy approach should serve as an excellent complement to Cole’s power-pitching reputation and form a fearsome combo at the top of the Yankees rotation for years to come.

That combination was sufficiently intriguing to the Yankees that they were willing to go well over the top to land their man. The #6 ranked free agent on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agent list, Fried blew away the six-year, $156MM pact we predicted for him as well as other projections around the baseball world. Today’s pact is surely exciting news for Corbin Burnes and agent Scott Boras, to whom anyone hoping to land a top-of-the-rotation free agent this winter will now have to turn with both Fried and Blake Snell off the board. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports the Red Sox already began preparing an offer for Burnes this afternoon. The Blue Jays, another suitor for Fried, have also expressed interest in Burnes. Burnes landed as MLBTR’s #2 free agent of the winter behind only Soto and was predicted to land a seven-year, $200MM contract at the outset of the offseason but it would hardly be a surprise to see his camp’s asking price increase in light of Fried’s deal.

Turning back to the Yankees, their projected payroll for 2025 now sits at $257MM (per RosterResource). That’s still $46MM below last year’s total. Meanwhile, their $265MM luxury tax payroll is above the first two CBT thresholds; last season it sat above the fourth and highest threshold for penalties. In other words, the Yankees should still have plenty to spend on impact free agents to try to fill the Soto-shaped hole in the roster. However, it’s worth keeping in mind that signing Fried will cost the Yankees their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft in addition to $1MM in international bonus pool money.

They might be hesitant to sign a second QO-rejecting free agent and therefore forfeit their third- and sixth-highest draft picks as well. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker reveals that while the Yankees signed three players who declined a QO during the 2022-23 offseason, two of them (Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo) were their own free agents and therefore did not cost the club anything beyond a hypothetical compensation pick. To find the last instance of the club signing multiple qualified free agents hailing from other teams in a single offseason, you would have to turn towards the 2013-14 offseason when the club landed Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brian McCann.

With that being said, some have compared the club’s approach to the free agent market in a post-Soto world to their approach that offseason, when they failed to re-sign star second baseman Robinson Cano. That could suggest at least some level of willingness to continue pursuing qualified free agents, particularly given the fact that they’ll receive a compensatory pick for the loss of Soto to help mitigate the losses. Christian Walker, Alex Bregman, Anthony Santander, and Teoscar Hernandez are among the other qualified free agents to which the Yankees have been connected since Soto signed in Queens.

One other avenue for improving the club signing Fried opens up is dealing a different starting pitcher, and with the club’s rotation now featuring seven starters it’s difficult to imagine the club not moving at least one if not two of their starters below Fried and Cole on the pecking order. Rodon’s weak results in the Bronx and hefty contract would appear to make a deal coming together involving him unlikely, but any of the club’s other four starters could reasonably be moved. Stroman and Cortes have frequently found their names in the rumor mill this winter as potential trade targets, though health question marks surrounding Cortes and Stroman’s lackluster 2024 campaign could hamper the potential return for either hurler. Schmidt and Gil would both surely bring back a far more interesting return but it’s unclear if the Yankees have much of an appetite for moving on from either youngster. While the club could dangling one or more of its starters in exchange for big league talent, it’s also possible that trading from the rotation could supplement the farm system and make the Yankees more comfortable losing the draft picks associated with additional qualified free agents signings.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first broke the agreement and the terms of the deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and Joel Sherman of the New York Post came through with additional details. The Post’s Jon Heyman had the specific salary breakdown.

MLBTR Podcast: Winter Meetings Recap

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Details On Max Fried Bidding

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1:30pm: A’s general manager David Forst denies that the club made a push for Fried, per Martín Gallegos of MLB.com (X link)

11:55am: One of the top free agents came off the board this week when the Yankees and Max Fried agreed to a stunning eight-year, $218MM deal. Clubs like the Blue Jays and Red Sox were also known to be in the involved but Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link) reports that the Athletics were “one of the most aggressive teams” in the bidding.

Many fans might roll their eyes at the idea of the A’s getting anywhere near a free agent of this caliber, which would be an understandable position to take. As of a couple of weeks ago, they had never given a free agent more than the $36MM they gave to Yoenis Céspedes back in 2012. They recently broke that record by giving Luis Severino $67MM, a huge jump for them but still relatively modest by league-wide standards and well below the deal that Fried got.

But the A’s have to spend some money somewhere. It was reported this week that the club may need to get its competitive balance tax number up to the $105MM range in order to avoid a grievance from the MLBPA.

That perhaps explains all the recent smoke about an upcoming payroll bump. MLBTR took a detailed look at the A’s last month, in a reporting that references reporting going back to January which hinted at a potential for greater spending. Since then, the A’s have ramped things up with the aforementioned Severino signing. They also reportedly made a strong offer to Sean Manaea, who remains unsigned.

It’s not surprising that they couldn’t get something done with Fried, as the pitching market has been hot. Fried and several other pitchers have exceeded the expectations from the start of the offseason. MLBTR predicted him for six years and $156MM but he blew past that, with guys like Severino, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and other hurlers also outpacing their projections.

It’s generally expected that the A’s will have to overpay to reel in any free agent. Given that the club has been rebuilding for many years and is going to be playing the next three years in a Triple-A park in West Sacramento, no free agents will have them as a first choice. Some guys will simply go where the money is best but some may need a premium before considering the unique circumstances of joining the A’s. That may have been the case with Severino, who was predicted to earn $51MM but got far more than that.

Even if the A’s were theoretically willing to marginally top the Yankees’ offer, Fried may not have taken their money. Still, it suggests that they are still a club to watch in the remainder of the offseason. RosterResource their CBT number is currently at $78MM, so they are still well south of their reported $105MM target. That means they could factor into remaining free agents such as Manaea, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta or others. Even after adding Severino, the rotation stands out as the best way to upgrade the team while also getting their spending up, with their interest in Fried and Manaea reflecting that.

What also may be notable is that the club doesn’t seem to worried about players who rejected qualifying offers. The A’s already forfeited their third-highest pick in the upcoming draft by signing Severino since he rejected a QO from the Mets. Fried and Manaea also rejected QOs, so the interest from the A’s there suggests they may be willing to forfeit another pick.

Another route could be to acquire a player making a notable salary in trade. For instance, the Yankees now have a surplus in their rotation after signing Fried and might look to move the remainder of Marcus Stroman’s contract. He will make $18MM in 2025 and there’s an $18MM player option for 2026 if he throws 140 innings next year. Stroman arguably doesn’t have a great path to a rotation job in the Bronx but could serve as a solid veteran for the A’s.

Elsewhere in the Fried bidding, Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that the Red Sox’ offer was “significantly” lower than the Yankees. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the Sox were at $190MM over seven years and may have been able to go higher, though with deferrals. Sherman adds that the Rangers were also at $190MM over seven years, though the lack of a state tax in Texas actually made that fairly comparable to the eight years and $210MM the Yankees were offering, forcing them to go higher and symbolically top the $217MM that David Price got from the Red Sox back in 2015.

It’s perhaps not surprising that the Sox fell short given how high the number ended up going, but it does highlight the fact that they haven’t been able to achieve their main offseason goal of upgrading the rotation. They also had interest in pitchers like Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi, who have gone elsewhere. Trade talks with the White Sox about Garrett Crochet have apparently stalled. Righty Corbin Burnes is still out there but it’s been reported that they are less likely to win that bidding than the Blue Jays or Giants.

Max Fried Will Reportedly Choose Destination In Coming Days

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Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top remaining free agents but he could be coming off the board soon. Per a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Fried is expected to pick his next club by Thursday, with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays presented as the frontrunners. Rosenthal adds that right-hander Corbin Burnes is generating interest from the same three clubs, with the Giants perhaps involved there as well but not for Fried. The Rangers are mentioned as a possibility for Fried but that’s depicted as more of a long shot, with the Angels listed alongside the Giants as cubs that are not finalists for Fried.

It’s perhaps not a coincidence that the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays were finalists in the Juan Soto frenzy and are now listed as the most likely landing spots for Fried. The general expectation throughout the baseball world has been that the clubs with money to spend would focus on Soto until getting clarity on that situation, with those that missed out then pivoting to other targets. Now that Soto is going to the Mets, that seems to be how things are indeed playing out.

All three clubs are looking to make a big splash, though for different reasons. The Yankees just made it to the World Series, but suffered a deflating five-game loss to the Dodgers in which they looked clearly outmatched. They then lost last year’s big splash when Soto moved from the Bronx to Queens. The Red Sox have been dialing back payroll in recent years with lackluster results to go along with it, though now seem motivated to big big dogs again. The Jays were good during the regular season from 2020 to 2023 but suffered heartbreaking ends in each of those years, narrowly missing the playoffs in one of them with three quick postseason exits in the others. They followed that up with a dismal 2024 season that saw them fall to the basement of the A.L. East.

In different ways, each club is looking to both improve their respective rosters for next year while also perhaps mollifying a restive fanbase. Soto would have been one way of doing that but that’s now off the table.

Fried, 31 in January, has been a strong pitcher at the major league level for quite some time. He got brief big league looks in 2017 and 2018 but has been an established big leaguer for the past six seasons. From 2019 to the present, he has tossed 824 2/3 innings, allowing 3.06 earned runs per nine. His 23.8% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate in that time were both a bit above average while his 54.1% ground ball rate was excellent. Only Framber Valdez and Logan Webb had better ground ball rates for that time, among pitchers with at least 550 innings pitched, and Fried had a slightly better strikeout rate than those two. Fried was also a key part of Atlanta’s postseason rotations throughout that time.

There is a little bit of injury risk, as Fried was limited to 14 starts last year due to a forearm strain and had a brief IL stint in 2024 due to neuritis in that same forearm. That’s bit concerning but Fried managed to make 29 starts this year, logging 174 1/3 innings, and there hasn’t been anything to suggest he won’t be healthy for 2025.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Fried could land a six-year deal with a $156MM guarantee, though it’s possible that Fried’s earning power has jumped since then. Pitchers like Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes have outearned expectations and the massive Soto deal has perhaps altered industry spending expectations more generally.

For the Yankees, they don’t strictly need pitching. Their rotation is already fairly deep with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes and other options on the roster. However, Fried would certainly upgrade that group and they could then perhaps use the surplus to make a trade, with both Stroman and Cortes have been in previous rumors.

Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has said he would like to raise the ceiling of the club’s rotation, which currently has a core three of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. The Sox will get Lucas Giolito back at some point during the 2025 season, once he recovers from last year’s elbow surgery. They have depth options like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell and Quinn Priester but adding Fried would help the club with its aims of improving the rotation and the club more generally.

The Toronto rotation has a veteran core of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt. It seems likely that Bowden Francis will get a shot at having a spot next year since he was so strong in the second half of 2024. Yariel Rodríguez is an option for the fifth spot but he also has plenty of relief experience and could get bumped to the bullpen. Jake Bloss is on the roster and has encouraging potential but limited experience and could be ticketed for the Triple-A rotation.

While all three clubs are looking at Fried, they have another option in Burnes. He has flashed a higher ceiling than Fried but hasn’t hit that ceiling in the past two years. From 2020 to 2022, he posted a 2.62 ERA with a 33.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 47.6% ground ball rate. Over the past two seasons, his 3.15 ERA has still been a strong mark but with a diminished strikeout rate of 24.3%. He is still perceived as a strong option on account of his durability and overall strong results, with MLBTR predicted him for a $200MM guarantee over seven years.

The Giants make sense for a rotation addition and seemingly prefer Burnes to Fried. Their rotation currently consists of Webb, Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said this week that Jordan Hicks will get another shot at a rotation job. Guys like Hayden Birdsong and Landen Roupp could battle for the fifth spot but getting Burnes would obviously be a boon to the group.

Both Burnes and Fried rejected qualifying offers and are therefore associated with penalties, which differ depending on who ultimately signs them. The Giants are perhaps the most interesting club in this group as they already agreed to sign QO guy in Willy Adames. Since they paid the competitive balance tax last year, that means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two draft picks, while signing another QO would effectively double that.

The Rangers’ interest in Fried was reported previously but also characterized as more of a long shot. They definitely want rotation upgrades, including a hope of re-signing Nathan Eovaldi, but they might need more clarity on their finances. They no longer have a broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group and have been looking into creating their own regional sports network but haven’t quite figured that all out yet. They are reportedly hoping to stay under the CBT in 2025 and they might need to make progress on the broadcast deal before throwing big money around.

The Angels are seemingly only mentioned to touch on Fried’s potential geographic preferences. Fried was born and raised in Southern California, then committed to UCLA before being drafted by the Padres. He was traded to Atlanta as a prospect and has spent his entire major league career with them so far. That club has signed many players to extensions but Fried wasn’t one of them. Rosenthal relays that some clubs feared Fried would prefer to return to the West Coast but it seems his three primary suitors are all A.L. East clubs.

Time will tell how things play out with Fried and Burnes, but it seems that the expected post-Soto domino effect might be coming to pass. As clubs pivot to plan B or plan C or plan D, guys like Fried and Burnes are seeing their markets heat up, which could potentially also impact guys like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and others soon as well.

Rangers Interested In Max Fried, A.J. Minter, Jonathan Loáisiga

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As the Rangers look to replace the many arms they lost to free agency this winter, three more targets have emerged: left-handed starter Max Fried, left-handed reliever A.J. Minter, and right-handed reliever Jonathan Loáisiga.

The news that Texas is interested in Fried comes from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon. They confirm that re-signing Nathan Eovaldi remains the team’s primary goal but suggest the Rangers are considering Fried as one potential alternative. However, their interest seems to be casual, at least for now. After Corbin Burnes, Fried is arguably the top starting pitcher available in free agency. That means he’s going to command significantly more money than Eovaldi. Entering the offseason, the MLBTR staff predicted Fried would sign a six-year, $156MM deal; Eovaldi’s predicted contract was a two-year, $44MM pact. Thus, as the Rangers look to duck under the luxury tax threshold and continue to deal with TV revenue uncertainty, financial constraints could prevent them from signing any star free agents. In other words, it seems like the Rangers are keeping tabs on Fried, but a deal remains unlikely.

The bullpen is perhaps a bigger area of concern for Texas. The only four pitchers who threw more than 50 innings out of the Rangers bullpen in 2024 are all free agents: Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc, and José Ureña. What’s more Josh Sborz is going to miss significant time again after undergoing shoulder surgery. President of baseball operations Chris Young has already made a couple of small additions, claiming Roansy Contreras off of waivers from the Angels and signing Luis Curvelo to a major league deal, but neither is the type of proven, high-leverage arm the Rangers desperately need. Ideally, the Rangers would be in the market for a bona fide closer like Tanner Scott or an All-Star talent like Jeff Hoffman. However, a lack of payroll flexibility could explain why they’re targeting a pair of bounce-back candidates instead.

Over the past five seasons, Minter has pitched to a 2.85 ERA and 3.04 SIERA in 243 innings of work for the Braves. While he only has 36 career saves, the southpaw has experience pitching late in games. He also has several years of playoff experience. In 25 postseason frames, he has a 2.88 ERA and 2.63 SIERA. The reason for hesitation when it comes to Minter, is that he spent two long stints on the injured list nursing a hip injury this past season. He ultimately needed surgery, and it’s not yet clear how soon he’ll be able to return. That said, a hip injury is far less worrisome than an arm-related issue, and Minter was highly durable from 2020-23. Only three relievers made more appearances in that time. Thus, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Minter is among the “most popular” left-handed relievers on the free agent market, linking him to the Braves, Cubs, and Rangers. He was also linked to the Blue Jays earlier this offseason.

Loáisiga has not been nearly as durable as Minter throughout his career, but the upside is appealing. He was one of the top relievers in the game in 2021, putting up a 2.17 ERA and 3.01 SIERA in 70 2/3 innings for the Yankees. Unfortunately, various arm injuries have gotten in his way ever since. He dealt with shoulder inflammation in 2022, bone spurs in his elbow in 2023, and, most recently, he underwent an internal brace procedure in April 2024. The rehab timeline for an internal brace procedure is typically 10-12 months, which means Loáisiga could be back to full strength in time for Opening Day. That being the case, it’s not hard to see why he has so many suitors, including the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, and now, according to Jorge Castillo of ESPN, the Padres and Rangers. While it’s been a long time since Loáisiga was a reliable big league reliever, it’s easy to dream about the upside of his 98 mph sinker and lethal curveball. So, it comes as little surprise that he is expected to sign a major league deal this winter (per Castillo).

Latest On Yankees’ Offseason Plans

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Juan Soto has officially departed the Bronx in favor of Queens, as the superstar slugger agreed to a 15-year deal with the Mets worth $765MM last night. Now that they know Soto will not be returning to the club in 2025, the Yankees are now poised to pivot towards a number of other notable free agent targets, spreading the money they would’ve spent on Soto around their roster. While the team is sure to have a number of irons in the fire as they attempt to reconstruct their roster without Soto in the mix, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that the club is expected to make a “strong push” for free agent first baseman Christian Walker after previously expressing interest in him earlier this winter.

Walker, 34 in March, has been a fixture of the Diamondbacks lineup at first base since longtime franchise face Paul Goldschmidt was traded to the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season but has found a new gear in his early thirties. Over the past three seasons, Walker has slashed a strong .250/.322/.481 (120 wRC+) with a 20.8% strikeout rate, a 9.9% walk rate, and 95 homers in 447 games for Arizona. He’s done that while providing high quality defense at first base, winning the NL’s Gold Glove award at the position in each of the past three campaigns. That combination of solid offense and elite defense at the position have made Walker one of the league’s most valuable commodities at first base in recent years. His 10.8 fWAR since the start of the 2022 season is tied with Yandy Diaz for fifth-best in the majors among qualified first basemen, trailing only Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, and Goldschmidt in that time. Meanwhile, Walker ranked fifth in fWAR and seventh in wRC+ among qualified hitters at first base this year while trailing only Freeman, Harper, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in both categories.

It’s the sort of production that virtually any team could benefit from, but the Yankees in particular could use a big boost at first base. Incumbent first baseman Anthony Rizzo departed for free agency last month after a injury-marred campaign that saw him hit just .228/.301/.335 (84 wRC+) in 92 games, and the club’s internal solutions at the position are lackluster. Rookie Ben Rice struggled to a 73 wRC+ in his first taste of big league action last year, while DJ LeMahieu was one of the worst hitters in baseball this past year with a .204/.269/.259 slash line during his age-35 season. Adding Walker would improve both the club’s offense and defense in a substantial way, offering a steady solution at first base.

What’s more, the $60MM price tag over three years that MLBTR predicted Walker would land at the outset of the offseason is hardly cost-prohibitive, and should leave the Yankees with plenty of financial flexibility to stay aggressive in upgrading other areas of the roster. Third base and the outfield appear to be the most obvious places for the club to upgrade, but a pursuit of a top-flight starter such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried can’t be ruled out either. The Yankees have reportedly met with both players this offseason and appear to have real interest in pairing one of the two remaining aces available in free agency with Gerrit Cole atop the club’s rotation. Of the two, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the club prefers Fried over Burnes. Adding either pitcher would surely require the club to trade at least one of their existing starters, with southpaw Nestor Cortes and veteran righty Marcus Stroman standing out as the most speculated-upon trade candidates.

Turning back to the lineup, the Yankees have reported interest in top free agent infielder Alex Bregman, which MLBTR discussed earlier this morning. One other option to fill the club’s vacancy at the hot corner could be Cardinals veteran Nolan Arenado. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported this morning that the Yankees are among a “select handful” of teams that the Cards have approached regarding the possibility of an Arenado trade, though it’s unclear to what level the Yankees reciprocated that interest in a deal if they did so at all. The 33-year-old has a full no-trade clause in his deal with the Cardinals, and his ability to be choosy about his destination has seemingly contributed to a “very limited” trade market for the veteran star.

Presumably, the Yankees are one of the teams Arenado would approve a trade to if the Cardinals are broaching the subject with the club. He could be a sensible fit for the Bronx given his strong defense at third base that would form an impressive left side of the infield alongside shortstop Anthony Volpe while allowing Jazz Chisholm Jr. to move back to second base. With that being said, there are questions about Arenado’s offense at this stage of his career. While he’s just two years removed from finishing as a finalist for the NL MVP award, those two seasons haven’t been kind to him as he slashed just .269/.320/.426 (104 wRC+) in a combined 247 games. He’s been approximately a three-win player over the past two seasons, but with three years remaining on his contract it’s fair to wonder if further regression on either side of the ball could be in Arenado’s future.

As for the outfield, the Yankees have been connected to Teoscar Hernandez as a potential back-up for Soto, with reporting yesterday indicating the club has “serious interest” in his services. Feinsand characterizes the club’s interest in Hernandez differently, however, reporting that the club’s talks with the slugger are “very preliminary” as the club has been focused on Soto to this point in the winter. Of course, now that Soto is off the board it’s easy to imagine the club’s interest in Hernandez becoming far more serious. While no player can replace Soto’s bat in the lineup and pairing another right-handed bat with Judge and Stanton in the middle of the Yankees lineup is far from ideal, Hernandez’s 134 wRC+ in 2024 would still offer the club a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat they’ll be lacking now that Soto has moved on.

Yankees Recently Met With Max Fried, Corbin Burnes

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The Yankees’ efforts to re-sign Juan Soto have dominated headlines in the Bronx this offseason, but they’re also laying the groundwork for other free agent possibilities. The Yankees held a 90-minute meeting with longtime Braves lefty Max Fried this week, as first reported by the YES Network’s Michael Kay, who adds that the talk went well and the two sides are expected to meet again. Mike Puma and Joel Sherman of the New York Post also report that the two sides met, with the Yankees’ contingent consisting of GM Brian Cashman, manager Aaron Boone, pitching coach Matt Blake and as many as six other team officials. Puma and Sherman further add that the Yankees met with Corbin Burnes late last month.

Soto, of course, remains the Yankees’ top focus. It seems unlikely that they’d sign him to what increasingly appears to be a $600MM+ contract and then put down more than $150MM on one of Fried or Burnes — though the Yanks certainly have the resources to do so. Still, it’s only natural for any Soto suitor to be doing homework on potential contingency plans in the event that he signs elsewhere. Loading up on high-end starting pitching and addressing the lineup in other ways would be one such possibility. (Notably, the Yankees have also recently been linked to infielder Willy Adames, who’s willing to play third base or second base with a new club.)

The Yankees already have one of the most expensive staffs in the sport. Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman are owed a combined $81MM next year. Nestor Cortes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.7MM. Righty Clarke Schmidt is projected at $3.5MM. Newly minted Rookie of the Year Luis Gil is still in his pre-arbitration years. There’s been speculation about the Yankees moving either Stroman or Cortes this winter, both of which seem plausible. Adding someone the caliber of Fried of Burnes would make a trade elsewhere in the rotation a virtual inevitability.

Either Burnes or Fried would join Cole right atop what could be a powerhouse Yankees rotation. Both pitchers rejected qualifying offers from their former clubs, meaning both would cost the Yankees their second- and fifth-highest draft selections, in addition to $1MM of space from their 2025 bonus pool in international free agency. For a pitcher of either caliber, that’s a small price to pay.

Fried, 31 in January, has rattled off 659 innings of 2.81 ERA ball dating back to the 2020 season. He’s third among all qualified starting pitchers in ERA in that time, trailing only Brandon Woodruff (2.76) and Clayton Kershaw (2.79). Fried has thrown nearly 200 more innings than both those pitchers. His 2024 season wasn’t his best, but only relative to his lofty standards. He made 29 starts, totaling 174 1/3 innings, and notched a tidy 3.25 ERA.

Fried doesn’t miss bats like the prototypical ace but has a slightly better-than-average 23.6% strikeout rate over the past five seasons. He sports a strong 6.3% walk rate in that time and is among the game’s very best when it comes to minimizing hard contact and avoiding opponents’ barrels. He also racks up grounders at a plus rate (54.2% since 2020) — highlighted by a career-best 58.8% mark in 2024. Fried has generally been durable, although he was limited to 14 starts in 2023 due to a forearm strain that did not end up requiring surgery. He missed three starts in 2024 due to a nerve issue in that same forearm, but that’s ostensibly a different issue than the one that sidelined him in ’23.

Burnes is nearly a full year younger, having turned 30 about five weeks ago. He’s solidified himself as a true workhorse, ranking third in the majors in innings pitched over the past five seasons and sitting narrowly behind Fried with a fourth-ranked 2.88 ERA in that same span. Burnes was traded from the Brewers to the Orioles last offseason and proved himself against many of the very same AL East lineups he’d be facing as a Yankee. He made 32 starts and pitched 194 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball for the O’s, adding eight innings of one-run excellence in Baltimore’s brief postseason foray.

Dominant as Burnes has been at times in his career, his recent work bears some resemblance to that of Fried. That’s not a bad thing, of course, but his once sky-high strikeout rate now sits at a roughly league-average rate (23.1% in 2024). Like Fried, he’s countered the diminished strikeout tendencies with sharp command and a knack for dodging hard contact. Burnes doesn’t generate grounders at the same level, but his 46.9% career mark and 2024’s 48.8% rate are both still comfortably above average.

The general thinking has been that Burnes will sign the largest contract of any pitcher this offseason. He’s two years younger than Blake Snell — who signed for five years and $182MM with the Dodgers (albeit with some deferrals) — and a year younger than Fried. His blend of durability and effectiveness is unmatched among this year’s crop of free agents. Fried, however, should command a deal well north of $100MM himself — quite possibly approaching or even exceeding the $162MM the Yankees promised to Rodon two winters ago.

The Yankees currently project for a payroll around $230MM, per RosterResource. They’re currently below the luxury tax threshold, but only nominally so. Even minor additions in free agency or on the trade market will push them into luxury territory. They’ve been a tax payor in each of the past three seasons, however, and their pursuits of various high-end free agents makes it clear they’re comfortable not only paying the tax for a fourth straight season but perhaps pushing into the highest tier of penalty again — at least for the 2025 season.

Managing partner Hal Steinbrenner has said that trotting out a payroll of that magnitude every season isn’t sustainable in the long run. However, that’s probably the reality for the immediate future, so long as the Yanks are paying Aaron Judge, Cole and Rodon a combined $103MM annually through 2028 (to say nothing of weighty commitments to Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Stroman and any forthcoming free agent/trade additions).

Latest On Red Sox’ Rotation Plans

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The Red Sox are looking to improve their rotation this winter but it remains to be seen how exactly that will play out. They have previously been connected to top free agents such as Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell, as well as trade candidate Garrett Crochet.

This week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Sox actually want to of those top free agents. Sean McAdam of MassLive reports that the Sox are continuing to keep tabs on the pitching market while engaging with Juan Soto. They did have some interest in lefty Yusei Kikuchi, though it’s unclear how strong that interest was and he now has an agreement with the Angels. As for Crochet, McAdam reports that the Sox have pulled off the gas a bit there, with some unknown club getting “very aggressive” recently.

Very early in the offseason, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said the club would be looking to the “raise the ceiling” in the rotation and these pursuits all align with that goal. Burnes, Fried and Snell all have long track records of major league success, with Burnes having a Cy Young award and Snell having two of them. Fried doesn’t have the hardware but does have a 3.07 earned run average in just under 900 career innings. Crochet only just transitioned to the rotation in 2024 but did so with aplomb, posting a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate in 146 innings.

Any one of those pitchers would be a nice upgrade for Boston or any other club, though that will also make them very popular. In addition to the Sox, those pitchers have been connected to clubs like the Blue Jays, Orioles, Yankees, Dodgers and Padres. There are plenty of other clubs that also make sense, even if they haven’t been explicitly tied to those pitchers in rumors.

For the Sox to come away with two of those pitchers would make for quite an aggressive offseason, but that’s exactly what the club has been signaling. Both Breslow and CEO Sam Kennedy have made comments suggesting the club is planning to act boldly this winter, with Kennedy recently saying that paying the competitive balance tax is on the table. Many fans of the club will bring up last year’s “full throttle” comments from chairman Tom Werner and how those didn’t precede much action last winter, but the club is being more specific this year. Kennedy has repeatedly said the goal is to field a club capable of winning 90 to 95 games and taking the division.

Spending money on free agents is one way they could go about accomplishing that. RosterResource projects the 2025 club for a payroll of $138MM, well below their $184MM spending from 2024, which was itself a drop from what they spent in the previous decade. RR pegs the club’s CBT number at $171MM, which is $70MM below the lowest threshold.

There’s plenty of room in there for two notable contracts, though successfully signing Soto would obviously completely change the calculus, given the expectation that he’ll sign a record-setting contract. Leaving that aside for now, big contracts for two of the big free agent starters is a feasible outcome. As part of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents post, each of Burnes, Fried and Snell were projected for contracts with average annual values between $26MM and $32MM. Putting two of those onto Boston’s payroll still wouldn’t even get them to the CBT line. They will presumably also make additions to the bullpen and maybe the position player group as well, but with a willingness to cross the line, all sorts of possibilities could be on the table for them.

Crochet would be far cheaper from a financial perspective, with the biggest cost coming in the form of prospect capital. Since he has spent so much of his career either working in relief or injured, he is down to two years of club control but hasn’t been able to raise his salary very high through the arbitration process. He made just $800K in 2024 and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a raise to just $2.9MM in 2025. He would be due another raise in 2026 before he’s slated to become a free agent.

Two years of an ace-caliber pitcher for that kind of money is tremendous value, which is why Crochet figures to be very popular in trade talks. The Red Sox have a strong farm system and could certainly get a deal done if they wanted to, though it seems some mystery club has pulled ahead of them, per McAdam’s reporting.

For now, the Boston rotation projects to be fronted by Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. Houck had a breakout season in 2024 but may have run out of gas, as he had a 2.54 ERA in the first half and a 4.23 mark in the second. Bello and Crawford are each coming off decent but not outstanding seasons, each finishing with an ERA in the 4.35-4.50 range. Lucas Giolito and Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix in 2025 but they are fairly unknown quantities right now as each underwent internal brace surgery in 2024.

Adding to that group would improve Boston’s chances in 2025 while bumping guys like Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts and Quinn Priester to depth roles, either in the minors or in the big league bullpen.

The interest in Kikuchi suggests that the Sox are also open to some of mid-market options. With Kikuchi now gone, some of the other names that could be in line for somewhat similar deals include Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino and old friend Nick Pivetta.

The qualifying offer will likely be a factor, depending on who the Sox ultimately sign. Snell, Eovaldi and Flaherty were ineligible to receive a QO, Snell and Eovaldi because they had already received one and Flaherty because he was traded midseason. Burnes, Fried, Manaea and Severino rejected QOs, meaning the Sox would have to forfeit their second-best pick in next year’s draft and $500K of international bonus pool space to sign them. Pivetta rejected a QO from the Red Sox, meaning they stand to receive a compensation pick just ahead of the third round if he signs elsewhere, though they would not receive that pick if they ultimately re-sign him.

Cubs Rumors: Rotation Market, Bellinger, Bullpen, Catcher

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The Cubs’ focus this offseason has reportedly been on pitching, and while Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that’s very much still the case, he also throws some cold water on the idea of Chicago making a major strike in free agency. Sharma’s colleague, Patrick Mooney, reported less than three weeks ago that the Cubs planned to “aggressively” pursue starters who could help near the top end of the rotation, but Sharma now writes that the “top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out.” That would seemingly remove the Cubs from the running for Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried, at the very least.

It’s the latest signal of a measured offseason approach, even at a time when the Cubs’ division appears ripe for the taking. The Cardinals are scaling back payroll and focusing more on player development in 2025 than on putting a playoff-caliber roster on the field. The Brewers, one year after trading Burnes, now seem likely to lose Willy Adames in free agency — and they could also trade closer Devin Williams. The Pirates and Reds have yet to break out as perennial contenders in the Central. Logically speaking, the deep-pocketed Cubs could take an aggressive stance and position themselves well in a wide-open division field.

For now, it seems they’ll shop primarily in the second and third tiers of the rotation market. Sharma points out that the Cubs have typically shied away from starters who’ve been attached to qualifying offers, though it’s worth noting that the Cubs were willing to part with draft picks and international funds in order to sign Dansby Swanson after he rejected a qualifying offer. They technically signed Cody Bellinger after he rejected a QO … though that offer came from the Cubs themselves, so they were really only “forfeiting” the theoretical comp pick they’d have received if he signed elsewhere.

Assuming the Burnes/Snell/Fried trio isn’t being considered by president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his staff, the Cubs will be looking at the next tier, with Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino among the options. Of that group, Manaea, Pivetta and Severino rejected QOs and would cost the Cubs their second-highest pick and $500K of international space in their 2025 draft pool.

There are certainly names in that bunch who’d represent upgrades over incumbent starters at Wrigley Field. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga form a nice one-two punch atop the in-house rotation, and the Cubs will follow them with veteran Jameson Taillon and young Javier Assad. Candidates for the fifth spot include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cade Horton. It’s a nice bunch of arms, but there’s some uncertainty in at least the fifth spot, if not the fourth. Assad posted a solid 3.79 ERA in 29 starts but did so with worse-than-average strikeout, walk and home-run rates. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.72) are far less bullish than his earned run average.

Looking at the team’s payroll, the Cubs should have some spending room. RosterResource projects a $180MM payroll at the moment — $34MM shy of last year’s Opening Day mark. That includes a full arbitration class that could include some non-tender candidates (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Julian Merryweather).

The Cubs could also explore other ways to drop their payroll further. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that the team could be looking to move Bellinger, though there are plenty of roadblocks to doing so. Bellinger is owed a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and a $5MM buyout on a 2026 player option. If he plays well for a season, the acquiring team would effectively be getting Bellinger at $32.5MM. That’s a hefty price tag in general and particularly for the 2024 version of Bellinger. While he played at an extremely high level in 2023, Bellinger was more of an above-average regular in 2024. A lack of impact left-handed bats and viable center fielders could still lead a team to consider the possibility, it’s hard to imagine a team giving a meaningful return and taking on the remainder/majority of Bellinger’s salary.

Still, moving Bellinger is also one of the only ways for the Cubs to plausibly pursue upgrades to the everyday lineup in 2025. As we noted when listing Bellinger near the back of our list of offseason trade candidates, the Cubs’ roster is already filled with expensive veterans who have no-trade clauses (Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki) or generally productive and affordable younger players like Michael Busch, Isaac Paredes and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nico Hoerner might’ve been a trade candidate and could still be — but he also underwent flexor tendon surgery one month ago. Obviously, that cuts down on his appeal. The Cubs have a clear opening for an upgrade at catcher, but the free agent market offers little in the way of meaningful help there.

All of those challenges to upgrading the lineup make a notable splash on the pitching side of things feel more logical, but it seems the Cubs don’t feel similarly — at least not with regard to free agent starters. There are upgrades to be had on the bullpen market, of course, but the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever since Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Last winter’s $9MM guarantee to Hector Neris was the largest bullpen expenditure the Cubs have made since signing Kimbrel.

It’s possible the Cubs could just look to the trade market for much of their offseason dealing. The Cubs have a deep farm system with multiple top prospects whose path to a regular role at Wrigley is blocked. There aren’t, however, many impact arms or high-profile arms expected to be available. Crosstown ace Garrett Crochet headlines the offseason class of trade candidates, but demand for him will be fierce and trades of significance between the two Chicago clubs, while not unprecedented (Jose Quintana, Craig Kimbrel), also aren’t common.

There probably are still additional trades on the horizon for the Cubs. Sharma writes that this week’s acquisitions of reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and backup catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels do not mean the Cubs are content in those areas. They’ll continue to explore both free agency and trades for help in those portions of the roster. But if pitching help remains their focus and they’re unwilling to shop in the high-rent district for starters, the Cubs will need to either break tradition with their free agent bullpen targets, get creative on the trade market, be content to address the middle ranks of the starting staff — or a combination of all the above.

12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.

The players who rejected the offer:

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

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