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Cardinals Notes: O’Neill, Matz, Edman, Suarez

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Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill has been out for three weeks with a lower back strain, and it’s taking longer than expected for the 27-year-old to get back on track. The original hope was that he could go on a minor league rehab assignment last weekend, but manager Oli Marmol said on Monday this week that O’Neill hadn’t progressed to the point where that could happen. MLB.com’s John Denton tweets that O’Neill resumed baseball activity yesterday but only in the form of light swings off a tee.

It’s not yet clear when O’Neill will head out on that rehab assignment, but it’s fair to say his absence will be lengthier than originally expected. The mounting scope of his absence is notable in multiple facets. First and foremost, it deprives the Cards of a potential high-end source of power. Health troubles have dogged O’Neill over the past two seasons, but as recently as 2021 he clubbed 34 home runs and swiped 15 bases while batting .286/.352/.560 in 537 plate appearances.

O’Neill’s absence also gives the Cardinals some additional runway to look at younger talent. Twenty-four-year-old Alec Burleson hasn’t logged everyday at-bats but has frequently remained in the lineup through some struggles, in part due to both O’Neill and Dylan Carlson currently residing on the injured list. Burleson has thus far mustered a rather punchless .258/.324/.290 batting line since O’Neill hit the IL, but it’s still valuable exposure to big league pitching for the promising slugger, who hit .331/.372/.532 in 470 Triple-A plate appearances last season.

From a larger picture standpoint, O’Neill’s injury further muddies the Cardinals’ outfield outlook as the summer trade season approaches. O’Neill and Marmol already had a public spat early this season after the manager suggested to the team’s beat writers that his outfielder hadn’t hustled at full effort when trying to score from second on a single to the outfield. O’Neill naturally disputed that notion and took exception to Marmol publicly airing his frustration.

The two have ostensibly put the issue behind them, but the Cardinals have a fairly well-documented battle for playing time in the outfield and O’Neill is only a year and a half away from reaching free agency. There’s been plenty of speculation about a potential trade, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that Cardinals brass could indeed look into potential trades of O’Neill in exchange for rotation help this summer.

O’Neill only hit .228/.283/.327 with a 34.3% strikeout rate in 99 plate appearances before being placed on the injured list. The longer he’s out, the less time he has to show he’s righted the ship — and the greater the concern for any potentially interested trade partners. Given his injury troubles and that diminished production prior to the injury, it’s not a given that O’Neill will even have sufficient trade value to net the Cardinals meaningful pitching help.

That need for starting pitching is due both to a lack of starters controlled beyond the current season and the 2023 struggles of some current rotation members. Chief among them is lefty Steven Matz, one of just two current starters (in addition to Miles Mikolas) signed beyond the current season. Matz inked a four-year, $44MM deal in free agency in the 2021-22 offseason and has struggled to remain healthy and to pitch well when on the field.

The 31-year-old Matz was torched for a 6.39 ERA through his first six starts this year but looked to be turning a corner when he held opponents to four earned runs over 15 1/3 innings in three starts from May 7 through May 19. A date with the Reds at Great American Ball Park yesterday proved otherwise, however, as Cincinnati jumped Matz for six runs on 11 hits and two walks in just four innings of work.

Matz’s 5.72 ERA in 10 starts is even higher than last year’s 5.25 mark (15 games, 10 of them starts), which came in a season that saw the southpaw battle shoulder and knee injuries. Denton further reports that while the Cardinals have used six starters during their current stretch of 19 games in 19 days — Matthew Liberatore is slated for his second start this weekend — they’ll drop back to a conventional five-man arrangement after their coming off-days. The 23-year-old Liberatore, who’s been excellent in eight Triple-A starts — could push the struggling Matz off the starting staff, at least on a temporary basis.

Turning from a pair of players who are currently mired in some struggles to one who’s trending in the other direction, Tommy Edman discussed a key part of his recent hot streak with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The switch-hitting infielder has begun batting right-handed against certain right-handed pitchers whom he feels he can see better from that side of the plate. Rather than simply favoring the standard left-on-right and right-on-left platoon matchup, Edman is selectively favoring right-on-right matchups based on pitch shape, release point and other more granular data points — and thus far doing so with good success. He’s 5-for-14 with a pair of doubles and a triple in right-on-right matchups.

Edman elaborates on the finer details of his approach and how he selects which pitchers are best faced from which side of the plate. It’s a fascinating read from Goold with thoughtful quotes from both Edman and reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt that’ll likely appeal to far more than just Cardinals fans. Edman’s fresh approach to switch-hitting makes sense in an era of increasingly specialized data, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see more switch-hitters begin looking into it — particularly if it continues working well for Edman.

Rounding out a smattering of Cardinals-related topics, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat tweets that lefty Andrew Suarez, who signed a minor league pact with the Cards after two-year run overseas (one KBO season, one NPB season), has an opt-out in his contract on June 1.

The 30-year-old Suarez has had an uneven showing in Triple-A Memphis so far, with a 5.08 ERA in 28 1/3 frames working as a multi-inning reliever. The bulk of the damage against him has come in three particularly tough outings, but Suarez has been scored upon in six of his 15 trips to the mound. He’s fanned 30 hitters in that time but also issued 13 walks, and his overall 22.9% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate are fairly pedestrian. Suarez had a nice rookie campaign with the 2018 Giants (4.49 ERA in 160 1/3 innings out of the rotation) and was outstanding in the KBO in 2021, but he struggled in Japan last season and hasn’t found his stride thus far in Memphis. He has a career 4.66 ERA in 202 2/3 big league innings.

Cardinals Notes: O’Neill, Edman, DeJong, Liberatore

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Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill has been on the 10-day injured list since May 5 with a lower back strain. He was slated to go on a minor league rehab stint today but the club announced yesterday he’d be held back because of continued soreness.

Manager Oli Marmol told reporters today that O’Neill will meet again with the club’s doctors to try to determine the source of the ongoing discomfort (relayed by John Denton of MLB.com). It’s not presently clear how much longer St. Louis will without its Opening Day center fielder. Prior to the injury, O’Neill had been off to a slow start offensively. He’s hitting .228/.283/.337 with only two home runs and a characteristically high 34.3% strikeout rate. The Cardinals also quickly pushed O’Neill back into his standard left field role after flirting with the idea of him manning center.

St. Louis is also without Dylan Carlson after he landed on the IL earlier in the week. The Cards brought up Oscar Mercado from Triple-A and they’ve begun getting Tommy Edman work in the outfield. The switch-hitter has started three straight games in right field after playing exclusively in the middle infield thus far. Edman, who left this evening’s game due to lower abdominal soreness (via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch), is off to a strong .274/.331/.467 start to the year.

Edman is a quality defender up the middle but his flexibility has allowed the Cards to get the hot-hitting Paul DeJong back into action. DeJong has been much maligned because of his offensive struggles between 2020-22, but he’s stormed out to a .290/.355/.594 slash with six homers in 20 games since being activated from the IL on April 23. That’s been enough for the former All-Star to force his way back into the lineup at shortstop.

The Cardinals also called up left-hander Matthew Liberatore for the first time this season yesterday. He tossed five scoreless innings in a win against Milwaukee, building off a strong first few weeks with Triple-A Memphis. The one-time top prospect had a 3.13 ERA with excellent strikeout (30.3%) and ground-ball (50%) rates over eight starts in the minors preceding his promotion. With St. Louis’ rotation turning in generally lackluster results, Liberatore looks like one of the organization’s most intriguing arms.

Marmol confirmed that Liberatore will get another start during next week’s road trip between Cincinnati and Cleveland (via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News Democrat). That came on the heels of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggesting earlier in the afternoon the Cards could use Liberatore out of the bullpen in the shorter term (via Brandon Kiley of 101 ESPN). The Cardinals won’t have an off day until May 31, marking a stretch of 19 consecutive game days. That figures to put a fair amount of stress on the pitching staff.

St. Louis has used a starting five of Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz. None of that quintet has an ERA under 4.00, with Montgomery’s 4.21 mark the only figure that isn’t pushing or exceeding five earned runs per nine. Depth starter Jake Woodford, who’d gotten six starts while Wainwright was on the IL in April, had a 5.72 ERA before hitting the IL with shoulder inflammation two weeks ago.

Cardinals Select Oscar Mercado

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2:40pm: The Cardinals have announced Mercado’s selection, along with left-hander Matthew Liberatore being recalled from Triple-A Memphis. In corresponding moves, Carlson was placed on the 10-day injured list retroactive to May 15 while righty James Naile was optioned. To make room for Mercado on the 40-man roster, lefty Packy Naughton was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Naughton has been on the IL since April 8 with a forearm strain and will now be ineligible to return until early June, 60 days from that initial IL placement.

12:47pm: The Cardinals are set to select the contract of outfielder Oscar Mercado, as first reported by Robert Murray and Joshua Jacobs of FanSided (Twitter link). They’ll need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move, as Mercado is currently in Triple-A Memphis on a minor league deal.

Outfielder Dylan Carlson has been hobbled by an ankle injury that’s kept him out of the lineup for the past few games. He’s been available off the bench on an emergency basis but hasn’t played since exiting the Cardinals’ Sunday game after just one plate appearance. Tyler O’Neill is already on the injured list with a back strain, and it stands to reason that Carlson could also wind up headed there if he’s still unavailable. A 10-day IL placement can be backdated up to three days, so he that move could still have him available for activation within a week’s time, if the Cards go that route.

Calling up Mercado will give the Cards some additional depth in center field behind Lars Nootbaar, who’s been starting in center recently. Mercado will join Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson and Juan Yepez as outfield options on the big league roster.

Mercado, 28, was a second-round pick by St. Louis back in 2013 but was traded to Cleveland before making his big league debut. He was a fringe Rookie of the Year candidate in Cleveland in 2019, batting .269/.318/.443 with 15 homers and 15 steals in 482 trips to the plate. That landed him an eighth-place finish on the ballot and looked to set the stage for Mercado to hold down a long-term spot in the outfield, but he regressed badly in 2020 and has yet to recover. In 459 plate appearances since that strong debut campaign, Mercado has batted .200/.258/.330.

The Cardinals brought Mercado back to the organization on a minor league contract this offseason, and he’s out to a nice start in Memphis, where he’s slashed .278/.361/.421 (100 wRC+) with a pair of home runs and 15 steals (in 18 tries). Mercado is out of minor league options, so it could be a short stay on the big league roster for him once O’Neill and/or Carlson can return to the lineup. The Cards won’t be able to send Mercado down without first passing him through waivers, which would make him a DFA candidate once the outfield is at full strength.

Big Hype Prospects: Grissom, Liberatore, Soderstrom, Naylor, Silseth

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It feels good to breathe again – by which I mean identify players to write about based upon who is tearing up minor league ball. While there hasn’t been much action yet, we have many big-name prospects appearing in Triple-A boxscores. Catchers feature prominently this week.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Vaughn Grissom, 22, 2B/SS, ATL (AAA)
16 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .417/.563/1.083

One of the top performers of Opening Weekend, Grissom seeks to embarrass the Braves for choosing Orlando Arcia and Ehire Adrianza over him. This is his first exposure to Triple-A after spending most of 2022 in High-A and the Majors. The extra taste of upper-minors action could be designed to avoid a developmental setback related to facing Major League pitching. Grissom appeared overexposed late last season once scouting reports were refined. There are still questions about his shortstop defense – questions that should be answered during the course of 2023.

Matthew Liberatore, 23, SP, STL (AAA)
5 IP, 12.60 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 0.00 ERA

Of the prospect pitchers in Triple-A, Liberatore posted the best 2023 debut. He allowed six baserunners in five innings of work with seven strikeouts. Liberatore is a complicated player to scout. His individual pitches rate well, especially a visually filthy curve ball. The issue is his curve doesn’t tunnel with any of his other offerings, making it identifiable out of the hand. Last season, Liberatore worked to a 5.17 ERA in Triple-A with a 5.97 ERA in 34.2 Major League innings.

Tyler Soderstrom, 21, C/1B, OAK (AAA)
10 PA, 1 HR, .556/.600/1.222

A first-round pick from the wonky 2020 draft, Soderstrom surged through the minors last season. His bat is his calling card. He’s particularly adept at producing high exit velocities at an ideal launch angle. Defensively, he leaves much to be desired. While he could conceivably stick at catcher with several more years of hard work, his bat is nearly Major League ready and should play at first base. For that reason, as well as the presence of Shea Langeliers, Soderstrom is widely expected to switch to the cold corner on a more permanent basis this season.

Bo Naylor, 23, C, CLE (AAA)
15 PA, 2 HR, .385/.467/.923

Naylor is coming off a huge rebound season in the minors with an aim toward building upon his reputation as a power-hitting backstop. He has above-average speed for a catcher and could potentially move off the position over the long haul. His defensive capability is viewed as below average at this time. For now, the Guardians have rostered a trio of catchers known mainly for their defense. Like Soderstrom, Naylor’s bat is his carrying trait. He is a discipline-forward slugger whose high rate of contact is offset by an unwillingness to swing at pitches he can’t barrel. The result is a high strikeout rate despite a low swinging strike rate.

Chase Silseth, 23, SP, LAA (AAA)
5 IP, 10.80 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 0.00

Silseth popped up as a standout in Double-A early last season. The pitching-needy Angels brought him directly to the Majors where he posted a 6.59 ERA (4.24 xFIP) in 28.2 innings. Silseth has a five-pitch repertoire. I’ve received mixed notes on his command. While we know he doesn’t issue many free passes, that could be because his stuff plays in the zone against minor league hitters. His best offering is a splitter. Silseth himself blamed the splitter for his poor performance in the Majors, noting that he needed the pitch to be on to succeed. Splitter consistency is a difficult trait to develop, especially for a starting pitcher. Don’t be surprised if he’s inconsistent as he loses and regains feel for his top weapon.

Three More

Matt Mervis, CHC (25): Mervis is an odd prospect in that he continues to torch the ball, yet scouts doubt his ability to hold a regular role in the Majors. He has a 1.167 OPS through 15 plate appearances. We should see him tested against Major League pitching before the calendar flips to summer.

Brett Baty, NYM (24): Baty’s strong spring continued into Triple-A. He has two home runs, a stolen base, and a 1.257 OPS through 15 plate appearances. Mets fans on social media are eager to see Baty oust Eduardo Escobar who is currently 1-for-16 with seven strikeouts.

Connor Norby, BAL (22): The Orioles’ impending glut of middle infielders includes Norby. The second baseman consistently outperforms his modest scouting grades. Bear in mind, the Orioles’ minor league venues are far friendlier to right-handed batters than Camden Yards. Norby strikes me as an obvious trade candidate later this summer.

NL Notes: Harper, Hudson, Liberatore, Stephenson

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Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told members of the media, including Matt Gelb of The Athletic, that the club doesn’t plan to put Bryce Harper on the 60-day injured list for now. Harper is recovering from Tommy John surgery and isn’t expected back until July, but it seems the club will leave the door open for the possibility that he’s able to return in late May. Dombrowski didn’t say that Harper’s timeline had changed, but the club doesn’t need to open a roster spot at the moment and will at least keep their options open and put off the move until necessary.

As Gelb points out, a transfer to the 60-day IL can be backdated. Even if Harper is eventually moved there at some point during the season, he will still be eligible to be activated 60 days from Opening Day, which will be late May. It’s possible that’s how this ultimately plays out, but it seems as though the Phils think there’s at least some chance Harper can come back ahead of schedule. Whether that’s a realistic path or just wishful thinking remains to be seen.

Some other notes from the Senior Circuit…

  • The Cardinals announced today that right-hander Dakota Hudson and left-hander Matthew Liberatore have each been optioned to Triple-A. Both players have been part of the club’s rotation plans in past years, but they’re currently on the outside of the starting group, with the five spots going to Adam Wainwright, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz. Hudson made 32 starts for the club in 2019 with a 3.35 ERA but hasn’t been the same since. Injuries limited him to just eight starts in 2020 and then just two appearances in 2021. Last year, he was healthy enough to make 26 starts but posted a 4.45 ERA with a 13.1% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. Liberatore was once a top 100 prospect but struggled last year, posting a 5.97 ERA in the majors and 5.17 mark in Triple-A. Both players will head to the minors to work on their performance, which could have long-term ramifications for the club. Wainwright is planning to retire after this year, while Flaherty, Mikolas and Montgomery are all impending free agents. That leaves Matz as the only pitcher currently penciled into the 2024 rotation.
  • Pirates right-hander Robert Stephenson will likely begin the season on the injured list. “We’re just running out of time,” manager Derek Shelton told reporters, including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The righty was slowed by some arm discomfort early in camp, which was initially described as a precautionary setback. However, it seems he hasn’t been able to return to health as fast as hoped. The 30-year-old has had an up-and-down career, but is coming off a strong finish to his 2022. He had a 6.04 ERA last year when the Rockies put him on waivers, but then posted a 3.38 ERA with the Pirates after they claimed him. His strikeout rate also almost doubled, going from 18.8% with Colorado to 36% with Pittsburgh. The Bucs believed in him enough to tender him a contract and pay him a $1.75MM salary to avoid arbitration, his final year before reaching free agency.

Juan Soto Talks Between Padres, Nationals Reportedly Gaining Momentum

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10:33am: There’s growing momentum in talks between the Padres and Nationals, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Jim Bowden of the Athletic. No deal has yet been finalized, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post hears similarly that there’s “optimism” the Padres can pull off a deal.

7:41am: There is a “growing sense” that the Padres are the likeliest landing spot for not only Soto but also Josh Bell, tweets Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. There’s some momentum in those talks, he adds. Similarly, the Post’s Jesse Dougherty tweets that the Nationals are beginning to narrow the field.

San Diego, of course, already has Eric Hosmer installed at first base, but they’ve been trying for more than a year to unload the remainder of that contract. Speculatively speaking, if the Nats truly want to maximize the return on Soto (and perhaps Bell), they could be the ones to absorb the remaining three years and $39MM on Hosmer’s contract themselves. The trio of Hosmer, Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg would be a lot of underwater contracts for one team, of course, but the Nats have little else on the payroll in the immediate future.

7:12am: Major League Baseball’s trade deadline is now under 12 hours away, and the Juan Soto trade possibility that has captivated the entire sport and its fanbase remains unresolved. As of yesterday, the Soto auction was generally believed to be a three-team bidding war, with the Padres, Cardinals and Dodgers all reported to be heavily involved. That doesn’t preclude another team (or teams) from jumping in to make a late push, of course; it’d frankly rate as something of a surprise if that didn’t happen, in fact. Teams will miss out on other targets, priorities will pivot, and stances on “off limits” prospects will soften.

Up until this point, a sticking point for the Cardinals has been their unwillingness to include young outfielder Dylan Carlson and their very best prospects, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. The 23-year-old Carlson is known be of interest to the Nats as an immediate outfield plug-in, and as a former first-round pick and top-10 overall prospect (per Baseball America), that’s not surprising — even if he’s been more of a solid regular than a star to this point in his young career. The switch-hitting Carlson is batting .260/.334/.426 dating back to last season, and he’s cut down his strikeout rate considerably this season.

Carlson can be controlled another four years beyond the current season and is capable of handling all three outfield spots. There’s perhaps a sense that given his youth and pedigree, he has another gear that he’s not yet tapped into. Further clouding the Cardinals possibility, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that Washington may not be as high on lefty Matthew Liberatore as others in the industry; The Athletic’s Jim Bowden wrote something similar a couple weeks back.

Turning to the Padres, the health of one of their own top young arms, southpaw MacKenzie Gore, is a potential complication. Gore has been shut down with with an elbow strain. He’s expected to avoid surgery, but the specter of an arm injury for a potential key pitcher in the deal has surely altered the Nats’ valuation. The Padres, meanwhile, are now over the luxury-tax threshold after their stunning addition of Josh Hader yesterday. They’ve reportedly been loath to cross that line for a second consecutive season. However, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests that if it means acquiring both Hader and Soto, the Padres “won’t mind blowing completely past” the tax line.

Over in Los Angeles, the Dodgers have become increasingly optimistic about their chances over the past couple days, per Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. The Dodgers’ perennially deep farm system is rife with top prospects — they have seven of Baseball America’s top 100 farmhands at the moment — and they also possess controllable young big leaguers of potential interest. Both Harris and Heyman suggest infielder Gavin Lux (four more years of team control) and righty Dustin May (nearing return from Tommy John surgery, with three more years of control) as potential targets for Washington.

As of yesterday morning, the Yankees were reported to be a “long shot,” the Rangers weren’t said to be particularly aggressive, and Mariners president Jerry Dipoto had gone on record to suggest his team is unlikely to land Soto. Adding to that list of teams that inquired but seems unlikely to be a serious player, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Guardians looked into Soto but talks never gained traction. Washington was interested in top Cleveland pitching prospect Daniel Espino, but health was again a factor in talks, as he’s been out since April due to a knee injury.

Cardinals Promote Zack Thompson, Designate Kramer Robertson

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The Cardinals announced a series of roster moves Friday, most notably selecting the contract of 2019 first-rounder Zack Thompson, who’ll join the pitching staff with the Cards slated to play four games in the next three days. Infielder Kramer Robertson was designated for assignment in a corresponding 40-man roster move. The Cards also optioned lefty Matthew Liberatore and right-hander Kodi Whitley to Triple-A Memphis and recalled righty Johan Oviedo from Memphis. Furthermore, the Cardinals announced that outfielders Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson will begin minor league rehab assignments — O’Neill in Triple-A and Carlson in Double-A.

Thompson, 24, was the 19th overall pick in 2019 and has ranked among the Cardinals’ best pitching prospects since being selected that day. He’s not as highly touted as Liberatore, who was just optioned out, but ranks 15th in their system at Baseball America and ninth at MLB.com. The lefty saw his stock drop in 2021, when he posted an ERA just north of 7.00 and walked 12.8% of his opponents in Triple-A. However, that came after an aggressive jump from Class-A Advanced, where he’d thrown just 13 1/3 innings, and on the heels of a year-long layoff from pitching in a game setting due to the canceled 2020 minor league season.

Thompson has gotten out to a much better start in 2022. He’s still far from dominant in Triple-A but has worked to a 4.67 ERA in a hitter-friendly setting while sporting dramatically improved K-BB numbers. His strikeout rate is up from 18.5% in 2021 to 30.1% in 2022, while that 12.8% walk rate has been curbed to a very solid 8.1%. He’s induced grounders at a 44% clip — very slightly above the MLB 43.1% average — which should pair nicely with the Cardinals’ elite infield defense.

Scouting reports on Thompson note that his velocity took a step back in early 2021, though BA notes that it improved over the season. At his best, Thompson sits in the low 90s but can reach back to dial it up as high as 97 mph on the radar gun, and both BA and MLB.com tout his plus curveball and its elite spin rate. If he’s back on track in terms of velocity, there’s a chance for Thompson to eventually settle in as a mid-rotation starter in St. Louis, where the team’s overall defensive mastery can help to boost any pitcher’s raw run-prevention numbers.

Injuries to Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz have thinned out the St. Louis rotation at the moment, so Thompson could parlay this first big league look into a more prominent opportunity if he impresses early on. Looking forward, Adam Wainwright is only on a one-year deal, and it’s not clear what the future holds for him. Thompson and Liberatore could be vying for permanent rotation spots alongside Flaherty, Matz, Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas before long, now that both have reached the Majors for the first time.

From a service time vantage point, Thompson’s promotion comes far too late in the season for him to accumulate the service time needed to reach a full year in 2022. As such, the earliest he could potentially reach free agency would be after the 2028 season. If he sticks in the big leagues from here onward, he’d likely reach Super Two status and be arbitration-eligible four times rather than three, but one look at the manner in which Liberatore has already been shuttled back and forth a few times suggests that Thompson could be handled similarly.

As for the 27-year-old Robertson, he was selected to the 40-man roster back in early May but appeared in just two games before being optioned back to Memphis. Robertson went hitless in his lone plate appearance, though he did pick up an RBI. The 2017 fourth-rounder is a career .242/.367/.396 hitter in 222 Triple-A games and has routinely turned in elite walk rates throughout his minor league tenure. He’s never hit for a high average or displayed much power, however, and he’s been primarily a second baseman and third baseman rather than a shortstop, which curbs his appeal as a utility option. Robertson does have all three minor league option years remaining, so it’s possible another club will look at that and his gaudy OBP marks and see some optionable infield depth.

The Cards will have a week to trade Robertson or attempt to pass him through outright waivers, at which point all 29 other clubs would be able to place a claim.

Cardinals Release T.J. Zeuch

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TODAY: Zeuch has been released, the Cardinals announced.

MAY 21: The Cardinals announced a handful of roster moves prior to tonight’s game. Left-hander Matthew Liberatore, whose imminent promotion was reported yesterday, has now officially had his contract selected. To make room on the active roster, righty Jake Walsh has been optioned to Triple-A Memphis. Fellow righty T.J. Zeuch has been designated for assignment to open up a spot for Liberatore on the 40-man roster.

The Blue Jays selected Zeuch 21st overall in the 2016 draft, with Zeuch then landing at #8 among Toronto prospects the next year, according to Baseball America. However, his prospect stock faded as he climbed the ranks of the minors, dropping to #12 in the system in 2018 and #24 in 2019. BA’s reports on Zeuch noted that his primary pitch, a sinker, was good at generating ground balls, but that Zeuch lacked a strikeout pitch, as his curveball and slider were mediocre.

Those reports have largely proved astute as Zeuch has faced more talented hitters. Over 2019-2021 with the Blue Jays, he threw 49 innings at the big league level, generating worm burners at a decent 50.9% clip but a paltry 14.1% strikeout rate. The blue birds designated him for assignment in July of last year and traded him to the red birds for cash considerations.

After the trade last year, Zeuch threw 38 1/3 innings for Memphis with a 4.93 ERA, 65.7% grounder rate and 21.6% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, things have soured so far this year, as Zeuch has an unsightly 11.64 ERA through 19 1/3 frames. He hasn’t even been getting ground balls at his customary pace, slipping to 36.8%.

The Cardinals will now have a week to trade him or expose him to waivers. It’s possible that a team in need of pitching depth could write off this year’s struggles as a small sample blip and take a shot on him, given his former first-round pedigree. He’s still  just 26 years old and is in his final option year, meaning he could be stashed in Triple-A for emergencies.

Cardinals Place Dylan Carlson, Steven Matz On Injured List

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The Cardinals announced they’ve placed outfielder Dylan Carlson on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 22, due to a left hamstring strain. Starter Steven Matz is headed to the 15-day IL (the minimum length for pitchers) because of a shoulder impingement. St. Louis also optioned righty Angel Rondón to Triple-A Memphis. In corresponding moves, pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore, reliever Junior Fernández and outfielder Lars Nootbaar have been recalled from Memphis.

Carlson exited Saturday’s game against the Pirates early after experiencing some hamstring tightness. He remained on the active roster but didn’t play the following day, and the team has now determined he’ll need at least another week before he’s ready to return to action. St. Louis hasn’t provided a timetable on the return for Carlson, who has served as the club’s primary right fielder during his sophomore season.

The switch-hitting outfielder is off to a slow start, hitting .247/.291/.363 with a pair of home runs through 158 plate appearances. Carlson, a former top prospect, hit a solid .266/.343/.437 last season. He’s gotten more aggressive this year, swinging quite a bit more at pitches both inside and outside the strike zone. That’s allowed Carlson to cut into his strikeouts by putting the ball in play earlier in counts, but he’s also seen a dramatic dip in his walk rate. Paired with a surprisingly low 20.8% hard contact rate and 84.2 MPH average exit velocity, Carlson hasn’t made much of an impact from either an on-base or slugging perspective.

At just 23 years old, Carlson’s certainly capable of righting the ship and building off last year’s promising showing. He’ll first need some time to recover from the weekend injury, leaving manager Oliver Marmol with a handful of options to mix and match in the corners. Veteran Corey Dickerson is on hand, while a younger group of Nootbaar, Juan Yepez and hot-hitting rookie utilityman Brendan Donovan will also see some action. St. Louis placed starting left fielder Tyler O’Neill on the IL last week, so Marmol will have to piece things together for the time being.

Matz left yesterday’s start after just four pitches because of shoulder discomfort. That led to an impromptu extended relief outing for Rondón, who threw 86 pitches over five scoreless innings to get the win. That obviously takes him out of commission for a few days, and the Cards will replace him with Fernández, who hasn’t pitched for Memphis since Friday. The hard-throwing Fernández posted a 5.66 ERA over 20 2/3 MLB frames last season and is up for the first time this year.

The injury that necessitated Rondón’s lengthy outing will cost Matz at least two weeks. The southpaw signed a surprising four-year deal over the winter, and the early results have been mixed. Matz’s 6.03 ERA through 37 1/3 innings is obviously undesirable, but he’s punched out 26.8% of opposing hitters against a minuscule 4.9% walk rate. He’s been tagged for eight home runs and opponents are hitting .350 on balls in play against him, however, contributing to the disappointing results.

With Matz out of action for at least a few starts, Liberatore looks poised to step into the rotation. The top prospect was called up to make his MLB debut on Saturday. He allowed four runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Bucs and was quickly optioned out, but the Cardinals could recall him immediately to replace the IL-bound Matz. The 22-year-old has a 3.83 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate over seven starts with Memphis this season. He’s likely to join Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson and Jordan Hicks while Matz and Jack Flaherty recover from injury.

Cardinals To Promote Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore; Tyler O’Neill To IL

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There’s a momentous roster shakeup in St. Louis, as the Cardinals are set to welcome two of the game’s top prospects to the big leagues in the coming days. As first reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter links), the team has promoted both Nolan Gorman and Matthew Liberatore for this weekend’s series against the Pirates. Katie Woo of the Athletic tweets that outfielder Tyler O’Neill is headed to the 10-day injured list because of a right shoulder impingement in one corresponding roster move.

According to Goold, Gorman will be in tomorrow’s starting lineup at second base. That figures to be his primary role moving forward, with Gold Glove second baseman Tommy Edman kicked to the other side of the bag. Edman has been excellent this season, but the Cards haven’t gotten much production out of their shortstops. Paul DeJong struggled enough the team optioned him to Triple-A Memphis last week, seemingly setting the stage for a forthcoming Gorman promotion.

That’s not to say the Cardinals hastily promoted Gorman to compensate for struggles at the major league level — far from it. The left-handed hitter has forced his way to the majors with an incredible showing in Memphis. Over 147 plate appearances, he’s hitting .308/.367/.677 with an astounding 15 home runs. No other Triple-A batter has more than 13 round-trippers, and only the Cubs’ Robel García has a higher slugging percentage in the International League.

Gorman’s production hasn’t been completely without issue, as he’s gone down on strikes 50 times. That’s a 34% clip, an alarming rate for any minor leaguer considering the higher quality of pitching he’ll face in the majors. Ultimately, however, Gorman’s power production became too much for the St. Louis front office to ignore.

It has been a long-awaited debut for Cardinals fans, who have anticipated Gorman’s arrival since he was selected with the 19th pick in the 2018 draft out of an Arizona high school. Regarded as a power-hitting third baseman as an amateur, he has more or less met those expectations while in the minors. Gorman has consistently posted huge extra-base numbers while running elevated strikeout totals. Prospect evaluators have raised some concerns about the amount of swing-and-miss in his game, but they’ve been unanimously effusive in their praise of his power upside.

Each of FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Keith Law of the Athletic and Baseball America slotted Gorman among the game’s top 60 prospects this past offseason. (Law and McDaniel both placed him among their top 20). That was before this season’s home run barrage, which only figures to have raised the 22-year-old’s profile even further. Gorman has kicked over to the keystone in the minors with Nolan Arenado entrenched at third base. He’s not regarded as an elite defender and will certainly be a downgrade from Edman there, but the hope is that his offensive capabilities will more than compensate for any issues on the other side of the ball.

Not to be outshined, Gorman’s draft mate will make his major league debut one day later. Liberatore is lined up to start Saturday’s game against the Bucs, manager Oliver Marmol confirmed to reporters (Woo link). The skipper said it’s still to be determined whether there’ll be more than one spot start for the 22-year-old southpaw. Regardless, that Liberatore is now lined up to pitch in the majors suggests he’s firmly on the organizational rotation depth chart.

Liberatore was coincidentally also a first-round draftee out of a Phoenix-area high school the same year as Gorman, and the two have been friends since childhood. Seen as one of the top prep arms in that year’s class, he fell to the Rays at 16th overall because of concerns about his signing bonus — which ultimately checked in just shy of $3.5MM. While Liberatore’s fastball sat in the low-90s, he drew praise for his secondary offerings, particularly a curveball that evaluators consider his best pitch. He pitched well for his first season-plus in the lower levels of the Tampa Bay farm system, then was involved in a January 2020 blockbuster that sent Randy Arozarena back to Tampa Bay.

The cancelation of the 2020 minor league season kept Liberatore from making his official Cardinals debut until last year. The organization pushed him straight to Memphis for his age-21 campaign and he held his own, tossing 124 2/3 innings of 4.04 ERA ball with a solid 23.7% strikeout rate and an excellent 6.3% walk percentage. St. Louis assigned him back there to open this season, and he’s made strides from a swing-and-miss perspective. Liberatore’s ERA and walk rate are right in line with his 2021 marks, but he’s improved his strikeout rate by almost five points through his first seven starts.

Liberatore is also regarded by most evaluators as one of the top 100 minor league talents. He’s not seen as a future ace, but between his excellent control and well-rounded arsenal, he’s unanimously viewed as a possible rotation stalwart. Whether the Cardinals plug him into that role immediately isn’t clear, but it seems likely he’ll be taking the ball every fifth day in St. Louis before long.

Neither Gorman nor Liberatore will accrue enough major league service time this year to reach the one-year threshold. Even if both players are in the majors for good, neither will be eligible for free agency until after the 2028 campaign at the earliest. Both players are in good position to reach early arbitration as Super Two qualifiers after the 2024 season, although that’s contingent on sticking in the big leagues from here on out. In Liberatore’s case, in particular, it seems future optional assignments are still a possibility.

The Cards have Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz, Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas and Jordan Hicks as their primary starting five at the moment. Wainwright and Mikolas have been excellent. Matz has struggled but isn’t going to be bumped from the rotation two months into a four-year contract. Hudson doesn’t have great strikeout and walk marks, but he’s riding his typically elite ground-ball production to decent results. That’s more or less also true of Hicks, who has lengthened out into the rotation after a few years as a high-leverage bullpen arm.

Of course, St. Louis has been without arguably their best pitcher for the entire season. Jack Flaherty hasn’t thrown a pitch because of a shoulder issue that required a platelet-rich plasma injection. He’s been on the 10-day injured list all year, and the club announced that he’s been transferred to the 60-day IL to clear space for Gorman on the 40-man roster.

That’s merely a procedural move that keeps Flaherty out for two months from Opening Day. The 26-year-old has yet to embark on a minor league rehab assignment and surely wouldn’t have been ready to make an MLB return before the first week of June anyhow. Flaherty has recently progressed to throwing bullpen sessions, so it seems reasonable he could head out into minor league games within a few weeks.

The club will also need to create a spot on the 40-man roster for Liberatore, with that transaction set to occur before Saturday’s contest. Aside from Flaherty, St. Louis doesn’t have any obvious candidates for a 60-day IL transfer, so it seems likely someone will be designated for assignment within the next two days.

The only disappointing aspect of today’s news is that O’Neill is headed to the IL. He’s missed the past couple days battling the shoulder discomfort that will now cost him at least a week and a half. The team hasn’t provided an indication whether he’s facing an absence longer than the minimal stint.

So continues a rough start to the year for O’Neill, who is just a season removed from an eighth-place finish in NL MVP voting. The 26-year-old has hit just .195/.256/.297 with a pair of home runs across 133 plate appearances, nowhere near the 34-homer output he put forth last season. O’Neill, who also lost his arbitration hearing last week, will try to get back on track whenever he’s healthy enough to make his return.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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