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Matt Mervis

Cubs Notes: Bellinger, Suzuki, Steele, Mervis

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The Cubs currently sit at a solid 20-14 record, just one game back of the Brewers for the NL Central lead. That strong start has come in spite of a number of key injuries: staff ace Justin Steele was pulled from his Opening Day start against the Rangers due to a hamstring strain and hasn’t taken the mound in the big leagues since, while the club more recently lost both Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki to rib and oblique injuries, respectively.

Fortunately for Chicago, however, it appears that all three stars are nearing a return to action. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including ESPN’s Jesse Rogers) this afternoon that both Suzuki and Bellinger could be back in action some time next week, while MLB.com’s Injury Tracker notes that Counsell indicated to reporters yesterday that Steele is slated to be activated from the IL and take the ball in Monday’s game against the Padres.

All three updates are fantastic news for the Cubs. When Suzuki was placed on the IL on April 15, the Cubs’ offense had produced a solid 108 wRC+ (11th in the majors) but the offense has scuffled in the right fielder’s absence with just a 93 wRC+ (17th in the majors) since then. The club’s struggles at the plate have become even more pronounced since Bellinger was placed on the shelf, as the club has posted a 73 wRC+ (24th in the majors) with an ISO of just .101 since then.

The club will have some interesting roster decisions to make upon the duo’s return, as top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong has made a solid impression with a 90 wRC+ and elite defense in center field while Bellinger has been on the shelf while veteran fourth outfielder Mike Tauchman has capitalized upon everyday opportunities and is now hitting a scorching .276/.406/.460 with a wRC+ of 154 in 106 trips to the plate this season. The most likely outcome appears to be Crow-Armstrong returning to Triple-A while Tauchman takes over as the club’s regular DH, with Bellinger and Suzuki immediately returning to their usual places in center and right field. That being said, it’s possible the club views Crow-Armstrong’s defense and baserunning as too valuable to lose and instead looks to carry him as a bench player even after the return of Bellinger and Suzuki.

While Chicago’s offense has struggled without its two star outfielders, the rotation has flourished even without the fifth-placer for last year’s NL Cy Young award. The Cubs’ rotation has a collective ERA of 3.35 that ranks sevent-best in the majors this year. Shota Imanaga (0.78 ERA), Jameson Taillon (1.13 ERA) and Javier Assad (1.97 ERA) have been nothing short of dominant as they’ve led the group in Steele’s absence while youngsters such as Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, and Jordan Wicks have combined for a solid 3.27 ERA in 11 starts to fill out the back of the rotation. That being said, Steele’s return would allow the club to return either Wesneski or Brown to a beleaguered bullpen that has struggled to a well below average 4.50 ERA and ranks bottom-five in the majors in terms of fWAR.

In less positive Cubs news, the club optioned first baseman Matt Mervis to Triple-A Iowa today, recalling utility infielder Miles Mastrobuoni to take his place on the roster. Mervis got top-100 prospect buzz entering last season thanks to his rapid climb through the minor leagues that saw him reach Triple-A in just his second professional season, but he’s stalled out at the level despite an excellent .297/.393/.556 slash line at the level for his career.

He’s received two cups of coffee in the majors to this point in his career but has failed to hit in either of them, with a .155/.222/.259 career slash line in 127 trips to the plate at the big league level that includes a nine-game stint this season that saw him go just 3-for-26 with a 30.8% strikeout rate. Mervis will now return to the minor leagues to await his next opportunity, though at this point he appears to be blocked by the likes of Michael Busch, Bellinger, Tauchman, and even Crow-Armstrong in terms of left-handed options for the club.

Cubs Place Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly On Injured List

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The Cubs announced a series of roster moves, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic among those to relay the full slate. Right-hander Kyle Hendricks and left-hander Drew Smyly have each been placed on the 15-day injured list, Hendricks due to a lower back issue and Smyly due to a hip impingement. Right-hander Hayden Wesneski and left-hander Luke Little were recalled in corresponding moves. The club also designated Garrett Cooper for assignment and recalled Matt Mervis, as swap that was reported on earlier.

Hendricks, 34, has been out to an awful start this year. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at the righty’s struggles, before Hendricks made his most recent start. As of right now, Hendricks has logged 21 innings this year over five starts. He has allowed 28 earned runs in that time, leading to an eye-popping earned run average of 12.00.

He’s never been a huge strikeout guy but his 15.1% rate this year is lower than any season since his 2014 debut. It’s possible there’s some bad luck at play, with Hendricks having allowed a .392 batting average on balls in play. He’s also stranding only 50.3% of runners while a third of his fly balls have gone over the fence. His 7.75 FIP and 4.44 SIERA each suggest that he has deserved better, though to very different degrees. That’s due to FIP counting home runs as the pitcher’s fault whereas SIERA gives more weight to batted ball data as opposed to actual results.

Hendricks is likely due for at least some normalization of his extreme results to this point in the season, but there will have to be a waiting period of at least a few weeks before the details of that correction are revealed. Per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, Hendricks felt his back bothering him before his start on Sunday and continued to feel it during the outing. The severity of the issue isn’t clear but he’ll have to miss at least a couple of weeks.

The Cubs will now have to figure out who joins the rotation alongside Shota Imanaga, Jordan Wicks, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad. Tonight marks the start of a stretch where they play 16 games in a row before their next off-day. Smyly has plenty of starting experience and could have been a candidate for such a job, but he’s now on the IL himself.

Wesneski has been working in a swing role for the club in recent years and could perhaps make a few starts. Ben Brown has been pitching multi-inning stints this year and would be another option. Veteran Julio Teheran was signed to a minor league deal last week and gives them a non-roster option. Due to Cooper being designated for assignment, there’s now an opening on the 40-man roster.

Report: Cubs To Designate Garrett Cooper For Assignment

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The Cubs are going to designate first baseman Garrett Cooper for assignment, per Robert Murray of FanSided. It appears he will be the corresponding move for Matt Mervis, as Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register reports that Mervis is being called up.

The transaction comes as a surprise, since Cooper has generally been playing well. He signed a minor league deal with the Cubs in the offseason and made the Opening Day roster. Since then, he’s hit .270/.341/.432 for a wRC+ of 118.

Despite that strong surface-level production, there are also some concerning elements under the hood. Cooper has struck out at a 31.7% clip so far this year, a few ticks above his career rate, which was already a bit above average. He also has an unsustainable .391 batting average on balls in play, well above the .290 league average.

Beyond Cooper’s performance, it seems that Mervis may have just forced the club into making a move. He had huge amounts of helium in 2022, despite landing with the Cubs as an undrafted free agent. The pandemic led to the 2020 draft being shortened to just five rounds and Mervis wasn’t selected, leading to him signing with the Cubs afterwards.

Despite being somewhat overlooked at that time, he shot onto everyone’s radar in 2022, going from High-A to Double-A and Triple-A, hitting .309/.379/.605 that year. That led to his first taste of the majors last season, though he hit just .167/.242/.289 in his first 99 big league plate appearances. He still hit well in Triple-A last year and is off to a strong start here in 2024. He has five home runs in 82 plate appearances this year and is drawing walks at a 14.6% clip, leading to a line of .288/.402/.606 and a 151 wRC+.

Perhaps the club couldn’t ignore that performance any longer, but handedness may have also played a role. The Cubs as a team are hitting .284/.361/.506 against lefties for a 140 wRC+, second only to the Guardians. But against righties, their collective batting line is .236/.317/.381, which leads to a 97 wRC+ that’s 17th in the league.

Cooper hits from the right side and has been better against lefties in his career, but only modestly. He’s hit .285/.337/.475 against southpaws and .263/.337/.420 otherwise, leading to respective wRC+ counts of 119 and 108. Swapping in Mervis could perhaps give them a bump against right-handed pitchers since he hits from the left side.

The Cubs could have perhaps bumped someone else off the roster in favor of Mervis, such as Patrick Wisdom or Nick Madrigal, but those two offer a bit more defensively. Cooper is only really viable at first base, since his brief time in the outfield corners has yielded poor results. Madrigal and Wisdom can each play third while the latter has some outfield ability as well.

There will now be a week for the Cubs to line up a trade for Cooper or pass him through waivers. It seems fair to expect that there will be interest, based both on his performance so far this year and his track record. He hit .274/.350/.444 for the Marlins from 2019 to 2022, leading to a wRC+ of 117 in that stretch. He struggled to stay healthy in that time and then slumped last year, but he seems to be in good form so far this season.

The Red Sox are going to be without their primary first baseman for a while, as Triston Casas has been diagnosed with a fractured rib. The Astros are getting dismal production from José Abreu thus far. The same goes for the White Sox and Andrew Vaughn, the Twins and Carlos Santana and others. Given all of those different situations, the Cubs will likely be fielding calls about Cooper in the coming days.

Cubs Activate Cody Bellinger, Option Matt Mervis

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The Cubs reinstated Cody Bellinger from the 10-day injured list this afternoon. Highly-touted first baseman Matt Mervis was optioned to Triple-A Iowa in a corresponding transaction.

Bellinger is in the lineup tonight against Pittsburgh righty Johan Oviedo, hitting sixth and playing first base. It’s his first start there in two years. Bellinger came up as a first baseman but moved primarily to the outfield by 2019, as the Dodgers (and subsequently Chicago) wanted to take advantage of his elite athleticism. Bellinger has been a very good defensive outfielder but he’ll break back in at first base after losing nearly a month to a left knee contusion.

Manager David Ross suggested as much earlier this week. Sprinting is still causing Bellinger some issues, and while the Cubs feel he’s sufficiently healthy to return to the diamond, they’ll try to ease the stress by putting him at a less demanding position. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters yesterday the club is hopeful of getting Bellinger back in the outfield at some point but didn’t specify a timeline (relayed by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune).

Bellinger will try to pick up where he left off before the injury. The former MVP has been enjoying something of a bounceback season in Chicago. He’s hitting .271/.343/.493 over 163 trips to the plate. That’s not peak form but far better than his results from his final two seasons in Los Angeles, largely attributable to him cutting his strikeout rate from around 27% to 19% this year.

His return displaces Mervis, who heads back to the minors for the first time since he was called up on May 5. The Duke product tore up minor league pitching in 2022 and started this season with a .286/.402/.560 showing in Triple-A. He couldn’t carry that success over in his first look at big league arms. Mervis hit .167/.242/.289 over his initial 27 MLB games, striking out in 32 of his 99 trips to the plate.

There’s little sense for the Cubs in relegating him to a bench role, as he’s still a potential key offensive piece for the organization moving forward. With Bellinger at first base and Chicago using a rotation at designated hitter — Trey Mancini, Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni and Ian Happ have split the last five starts there — the clearest path for Mervis to get consistent reps was by sending him back to Iowa.

Cubs Promote Matt Mervis

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May 5: The Cubs officially selected Mervis’s contract this morning, as noted by MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. In a corresponding move, infielder Edwin Rios was optioned to Triple-A Iowa. The club already had an open spot on the 40-man roster, so no additional move was required to select Mervis. Mervis will make his MLB debut in this afternoon’s game against the Marlins, playing first base and batting seventh.

Rios, 29, has struggled with the Cubs so far this season, albeit in a tiny sample of just 25 plate appearances, with a slash line of .100/.280/.300 and nine strikeouts. He figures to serve as infield depth for the club at the Triple-A level going forward.

May 4: The Cubs will select the contract of first base prospect Matt Mervis, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’s not with the team for today’s series finale in D.C. but will join the Cubs when they return to Chicago tomorrow to kick off a homestand with a series against the Marlins.

Mervis, 25, was a 39th-round pick of the Nationals back in 2016 but didn’t sign, instead opting to attend college at Duke. He wasn’t selected in the shortened, five-round iteration of the 2020 draft and wound up signing with the Cubs as an undrafted free agent.

That’s proven to be quite the find for the Cubs, as Mervis has laid waste to minor league pitching and established himself as one of the organization’s top-ranked prospects. Over the past two seasons, Mervis has skyrocketed from High-A to Triple-A (and now the Majors), batting a combined .305/.383/.615 with 42 home runs in 161 games across three minor league levels. That includes a torrid .286/.402/.560 slash and six home runs through his first 112 plate appearances in Triple-A this season.

Baseball America ranks Mervis fourth among Cubs farmhands, while MLB.com has him sixth. Mervis is generally regarded as an all-bat prospect, as he’s a sub-par runner and not a standout defender  at first base. BA’s report on him notes that a shortened swing and refined approach at the plate unlocked a new level of performance for Mervis in 2022, and he’s clearly kept that up in 2023, given that he’s walked (16.1%) nearly as often as he’s punched out (17%). The left-handed-hitting Mervis was awful against left-handed pitchers in his first pro season, but he improved to .268/.339/.529 against southpaws in 174 plate appearances last year and is 6-for-20 with two homers, two doubles, six walks and six strikeouts in 27 plate appearances against same-handed opponents so far in 2023 (.300/.482/.700).

Mervis’ ascension to the big leagues comes at a time when veteran first baseman Eric Hosmer is struggling, having batted just .250/.294/.363 in 85 plate appearances. Cubs first basemen are still hitting .296/.331/.470 on the season, though that’s skewed by the fact that the vast majority of Trey Mancini’s production has happened to come while he’s playing at first base rather than in the outfield or at designated hitter. Mancini is certainly capable of playing either outfield corner and has enough bat to be an option at DH, so there’s room to get both into the lineup.

Keeping Hosmer, who’s also a lefty hitting, first base-only player on the roster alongside Mervis would be trickier, though there’s no direct indication yet that Mervis’ promotion puts Hosmer’s roster spot in jeopardy. Hosmer himself recently acknowledged that may end up being the case in an interview with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, though he voiced nothing but support for Mervis.

“This is my 13th year in the league,” Hosmer told Rosenthal. “I’m not going to sit here and be bitter about a young kid coming up. That’s not right. … I was in spring with Matty. I was always trying to help, give him my two cents on what’s coming for him in the league, how you can simplify some stuff. It’s not something where I’m watching over my shoulder, or living and dying by his at-bats. When it comes that time, that’s when you can move on and do something else. I know he’s going to be a big part of this organization. I’ve got to help him any way I can.”

While future optional assignments can always impact a player’s timeline to arbitration and free agent, it’s worth at least outlining where those milestones currently stand for Mervis. If he’s in the big leagues for good from this point forth, he’ll fall shy of a full year of service in 2023 (barring a top-two finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting). That means he’d be on pace to reach free agency after the 2029 season, although an early-May call-up will surely afford him enough service time to qualify as a Super Two player. As such, he’d reach arbitration following the 2025 season and be eligible four times rather than the standard three.

If Mervis does manage to secure a top-two place in NL Rookie of the Year voting, he’d gain a full year of service and bump his free agent timeline up to the 2028-29 offseason in the process. He’d still be arb-eligible following the 2025 season, but he’d get there as a player with three years of service and thus only be eligible three times.

Big Hype Prospects: Grissom, Liberatore, Soderstrom, Naylor, Silseth

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It feels good to breathe again – by which I mean identify players to write about based upon who is tearing up minor league ball. While there hasn’t been much action yet, we have many big-name prospects appearing in Triple-A boxscores. Catchers feature prominently this week.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Vaughn Grissom, 22, 2B/SS, ATL (AAA)
16 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .417/.563/1.083

One of the top performers of Opening Weekend, Grissom seeks to embarrass the Braves for choosing Orlando Arcia and Ehire Adrianza over him. This is his first exposure to Triple-A after spending most of 2022 in High-A and the Majors. The extra taste of upper-minors action could be designed to avoid a developmental setback related to facing Major League pitching. Grissom appeared overexposed late last season once scouting reports were refined. There are still questions about his shortstop defense – questions that should be answered during the course of 2023.

Matthew Liberatore, 23, SP, STL (AAA)
5 IP, 12.60 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 0.00 ERA

Of the prospect pitchers in Triple-A, Liberatore posted the best 2023 debut. He allowed six baserunners in five innings of work with seven strikeouts. Liberatore is a complicated player to scout. His individual pitches rate well, especially a visually filthy curve ball. The issue is his curve doesn’t tunnel with any of his other offerings, making it identifiable out of the hand. Last season, Liberatore worked to a 5.17 ERA in Triple-A with a 5.97 ERA in 34.2 Major League innings.

Tyler Soderstrom, 21, C/1B, OAK (AAA)
10 PA, 1 HR, .556/.600/1.222

A first-round pick from the wonky 2020 draft, Soderstrom surged through the minors last season. His bat is his calling card. He’s particularly adept at producing high exit velocities at an ideal launch angle. Defensively, he leaves much to be desired. While he could conceivably stick at catcher with several more years of hard work, his bat is nearly Major League ready and should play at first base. For that reason, as well as the presence of Shea Langeliers, Soderstrom is widely expected to switch to the cold corner on a more permanent basis this season.

Bo Naylor, 23, C, CLE (AAA)
15 PA, 2 HR, .385/.467/.923

Naylor is coming off a huge rebound season in the minors with an aim toward building upon his reputation as a power-hitting backstop. He has above-average speed for a catcher and could potentially move off the position over the long haul. His defensive capability is viewed as below average at this time. For now, the Guardians have rostered a trio of catchers known mainly for their defense. Like Soderstrom, Naylor’s bat is his carrying trait. He is a discipline-forward slugger whose high rate of contact is offset by an unwillingness to swing at pitches he can’t barrel. The result is a high strikeout rate despite a low swinging strike rate.

Chase Silseth, 23, SP, LAA (AAA)
5 IP, 10.80 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 0.00

Silseth popped up as a standout in Double-A early last season. The pitching-needy Angels brought him directly to the Majors where he posted a 6.59 ERA (4.24 xFIP) in 28.2 innings. Silseth has a five-pitch repertoire. I’ve received mixed notes on his command. While we know he doesn’t issue many free passes, that could be because his stuff plays in the zone against minor league hitters. His best offering is a splitter. Silseth himself blamed the splitter for his poor performance in the Majors, noting that he needed the pitch to be on to succeed. Splitter consistency is a difficult trait to develop, especially for a starting pitcher. Don’t be surprised if he’s inconsistent as he loses and regains feel for his top weapon.

Three More

Matt Mervis, CHC (25): Mervis is an odd prospect in that he continues to torch the ball, yet scouts doubt his ability to hold a regular role in the Majors. He has a 1.167 OPS through 15 plate appearances. We should see him tested against Major League pitching before the calendar flips to summer.

Brett Baty, NYM (24): Baty’s strong spring continued into Triple-A. He has two home runs, a stolen base, and a 1.257 OPS through 15 plate appearances. Mets fans on social media are eager to see Baty oust Eduardo Escobar who is currently 1-for-16 with seven strikeouts.

Connor Norby, BAL (22): The Orioles’ impending glut of middle infielders includes Norby. The second baseman consistently outperforms his modest scouting grades. Bear in mind, the Orioles’ minor league venues are far friendlier to right-handed batters than Camden Yards. Norby strikes me as an obvious trade candidate later this summer.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Big Hype Prospects: Rodriguez, Volpe, Mervis, Bae, Macko

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With the Rule 5 Draft looming, we’ll touch on a few more names who could find themselves with a new organization in the next few days. We’ll also start our pivot to offseason mode, highlighting prospects who are in the news.

Five BHPs In The News

Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BAL (AAA)
69.2 IP, 12.53 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 2.20 ERA

If not for a lat strain, Rodriguez would have graduated from prospect lists. The Orioles are in the market for multiple starting pitchers, but Rodriguez reportedly has an inside path to an Opening Day role, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. The consensus top pitching prospect in the league wields upwards of five above-average offerings with a superstar-caliber changeup as his headliner. Rodriguez’s rookie campaign will go a long way toward determining if the Orioles can build upon their surprising 2022 success.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 511 PA, 21 HR, 50 SB, .249/.342/.460

The Yankees aren’t expected to be active participants in the shortstop market this winter largely because Volpe and Oswald Peraza await in the wings. Peraza already has a successful 57 plate appearance stint in the Majors, albeit with worrisome exit velocities. Getting back to Volpe, he only has 99 plate appearances of experience in Triple-A and might merit further seasoning. He hit just .236/.313/.404 in the minor’s highest level, good for only a 91 wRC+. His swing is geared for extreme fly ball rates. As a result, his batting average might play below his raw tools. If he continues hitting over 50 percent fly balls, he profiles as a future 40-homer threat as he ages into more strength. Initially, he might frustrate with too many softly hit flies and pop-outs. There’s also potential for him to tighten up his launch angle to sacrifice a few home runs for better outcomes on average. Volpe has multiple pathways to superstardom.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 512 PA, 36 HR, 2 SB, .309/.379/.606

A frequent guest of this column in recent months, Mervis charged through three levels while greatly improving his contact rate and plate discipline at each stop. For icing on the cake, he turned in a quality performance in the AFL. He’s very much in consideration for an Opening Day role as the Cubs first baseman or designated hitter. Chicago is reportedly on the hunt for a first baseman, but that won’t necessarily affect Mervis since designated hitter is also vacant. He profiles as a way-too-early frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year.

Ji Hwan Bae, 23, 2B/OF, PIT (MLB)
(AAA) 473 PA, 8 HR, 30 SB, .289/.362/.430

Bae turned in 37 solid plate appearances in the Majors. Like Peraza above, Bae posted an above-average batting line despite worrisome quality of contact. He mostly played second base and shortstop in the minors with some time in center field too. Outfield might be his best path forward on the Major League roster. There’s a whiff of Tommy Edman to Bae. He has defensive utility, a speed-first profile, and makes low-angle contact leading to high BABIPs and rare home runs. The Pirates are said to be considering middle infield additions which could affect Bae’s Opening Day assignment.

Adam Macko, 21, SP, TOR (A+)
38.1 IP, 14.09 K/9, 4.70 BB/9, 3.99 ERA

The Blue Jays acquired Macko as half of the return for Teoscar Hernandez. A mystery injury prevented Macko from working much this season, though he did appear in the AFL. The upcoming season is his Rule 5 evaluation year which might push him toward a bullpen role. He has the stuff to start – a three-pitch repertoire of average or better offerings. The southpaw is inconsistent, often losing command of his secondary offerings. Predictably, his fastball plays down when this happens. When he’s on, he mows through low-minors hitters as evidenced by 14.09 K/9 and a 15.8 percent swinging strike rate.

Five More Rule 5ers

Kameron Misner, TBR (24): Originally acquired in exchange for Joey Wendle, Misner has plus discipline, power, and speed. He’s a capable defensive centerfielder. Misner has yet to taste Triple-A despite never posting a below-average batting line. His biggest weakness is a lofty strikeout rate, but the rest of his profile seemingly supports this drawback. Among hitters, Misner would top my personal Rule 5 wishlist as a fifth outfielder and potential righty-masher.

Ronny Simon, TBR (22): Although he lacks Misner’s physicality and upside, Simon might be even more likely to be selected. He performed well in the Arizona Fall League following solid High- and Double-A campaigns. At the plate, Simon hides swing-and-miss issues with aggression. He’s developed sneaky pop and has shown a willingness to steal bases. Simon is a utility man who fits best at second or third base.

Andres Chaparro, NYY (23): The Yankees infield depth likely led them to leave Chaparro unprotected. He’s coming off an impressive performance at Double-A including a .289/.369/.594 line with 19 home runs in 271 plate appearances. The main knock against him is a lack of durability. He’s a corner infielder by trade.

Adrian Hernandez, TOR (22): A diminutive right-hander (by baseball standards), Hernandez is a changeup specialist who succeeds by keeping opponents off balance. Between his stature and pitching approach, it’s an unusual profile. ‘Unusual’ tends to do well in the current meta. Hernandez pitched well early in 2022. He struggled upon returning from a shoulder injury.

Cam Devanney, MIL (25): Although he’s never really appeared on prospect lists, Devanney made a swing adjustment last season. He now looks like a sure-fire Major Leaguer. He flashed power and adequate discipline at Double-A and performed well in a brief trial at Triple-A. His most attractive trait is utility – he’s proven himself a capable defender at shortstop, second, and third base.

Latest On Cubs’ First Base Plans

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The average batting line for first basemen in 2022 was .246/.320/.410, wRC+ of 107. For the Cubs, they used various players at the cold corner for a combined slash line of .232/.304/.348, wRC+ of 86, that latter stat being 24th out of the 30 MLB teams. Given that disparity, the Cubs will undoubtedly be looking for better production in 2023. They might have an in-house solution in Matt Mervis, though they will also be looking for external upgrades this winter. “He’s very much in our plans,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said about Mervis, per Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. “But I think we’re also going to be active in exploring alternatives.”

Mervis has really exploded onto the scene in 2022. As mentioned in the piece linked above, he didn’t get drafted in either 2019 or 2020, eventually signing with the Cubs as an undrafted free agent. He played 72 minor league games in 2021, hitting at a below-average level.

2022 has been a completely different story, however. He began the season in High-A and completely mashed, producing a batting line of .350/.389/.650, wRC+ of 189. He got bumped to Double-A and hit .300/.370/.596 for a wRC+ of 148. After moving to Triple-A, his line was .297/.383/.593, 152 wRC+. Incredibly, his walk rate improved from 4.6% to 8.7% to 10.4% as he moved up the ladder, while his strikeout rate fell from 24.1% to 20% to 14.6%. The Cubs decided to keep the good times rolling by sending him to the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .262/.324/.590 in 17 games.

It’s not just the bat that has the Cubs excited either. “He’s more athletic than people think,” Cubs vice president of player development Jared Banner said. “He knows his way around the bag at first base. He’s a nice, big target, and he actually grades out really well defensively. No concerns there.”

Despite that tremendous breakout season, it stands to reason that the Cubs don’t want to simply hand over the starting job to Mervis just based on that. “We’re thrilled with what he’s doing,” Hoyer said. “We know he’s a big part of where we’re going. But at the same time, we have to be cognizant of having real depth. Injuries and other things happen.”

With Mervis seemingly on the cusp of reaching the majors but not a guarantee to immediately succeed, it’s likely that the club will look for a short-term addition to first base. That way, should Mervis continue charging forward, he wouldn’t be blocked from securing the full-time job. The Cubs don’t really have a player locked into the designated hitter mix, so it’s possible that Mervis could co-exist on the roster with someone who will require a long-term deal like, say, Josh Bell. However, teams generally don’t like clogging up the DH spot and prefer to rotate players through there. That’s especially true of a team like the Cubs that’s still trying to give at-bats to young players and evaluate their capabilities against major league pitching. That being said, with no real lock for first or DH, the Cubs are one of the teams best suited to fit a bat-first player into their lineup.

MLBTR’s Top 50 had Josh Bell as the top available first baseman, predicted a contract of four years and $64MM, or $16MM per year. However, Jose Abreu was actually pegged for a higher contract in terms of average annual value: $40MM over two years. Abreu has a longer and more impressive track record but he’s more than five years older than Bell, hence the disparity. The White Sox seem set to let Abreu walk and replace him with Andrew Vaughn at first, and the Cubs have been reported to be interested in facilitating a crosstown move. Brandon Drury would be a sensible fit, if the Cubs are content with moving him to second or third base in the event Mervis takes over at first.

If the Cubs opt for a more short-term solution, players that can likely be had on one-year deals include Brandon Belt, Matt Carpenter, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel or Wil Myers. There’s also the trade market, which could feature bats like Rowdy Tellez or Eric Hosmer. Tellez still has two seasons of arbitration control remaining and is projected for a $5.3MM salary this year by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Hosmer still has three years left on his deal but the Padres agreed to pay down everything but the league minimum when trading him to the Red Sox.

There are many different options available to the club and how they proceed will depend on how much faith they have in Mervis and how much they want to spend. Last year, the Cubs gave out a whole bunch of one-year deals to veterans, with Seiya Suzuki’s five years and Marcus Stroman’s three years (with an opt-out after two) the only multi-year deals.

Big Hype Prospects: Sheehan, Perez Jr., Kjerstad, Walker, Mervis

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Our Arizona Fall League prospect coverage is coming to a close. The league wraps up its postseason this weekend. We’ll use this opportunity for one last peek at game action before affiliated baseball closes down for the year.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Emmet Sheehan, 22, SP, LAD (AA)
AFL: 20.1 IP, 8 BB, 24 K, 3.54 ERA

Arguably the top pitching prospect in the AFL, Sheehan had a shaky start to his fall season. He ended with a masterpiece: a five-inning, 10-strikeout gem. He allowed one hit and one walk in the outing. A right-handed changeup specialist, command is the main bugaboo when it comes to Sheehan’s development. His repertoire plays together in a way that should flummox hitters at all levels. As a Dodger, there is increased pressure to refine his command if he wants to stick in the rotation. Most clubs would comfortably view him as a future starter – one who might fumble a few games in the early innings but make up for it by dominating in others. The Dodgers could yet opt to turn him into a swing-man or reliever as they have with several able pitching prospects in recent years.

Robert Perez Jr., 22, 1B, SEA (A+)
AFL: 77 PA, 3 HR, .231/.338/.415

A slow-burn prospect whose calling card is power, Perez neither seized nor fumbled his opportunity in the AFL. The Rule 5-eligible first baseman has impressive power which he put on display by winning the first Fall Stars Home Run Derby. He performed well during the regular season – mostly at Low-A where he was a tad old for the level. His potent regular season and passable AFL campaign should lead to a promotion to Double-A early in the season. Whether or not the Mariners opt to add him to their 40-man, the right-handed slugger probably isn’t ready for a straight jump to the Majors via the Rule 5 Draft. Even in the AFL, he struck out 22 times in 77 plate appearances (28 percent).

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (A+)
AFL: 104 PA, 5 HR, .357/.385/.622

Few players had more to prove this fall than Kjerstad. Now that the smoke has cleared, he answered some questions and raised others. The left-handed hitting outfielder led the league in plate appearances and at bats. He recorded five walks and 31 strikeouts. Given the modest quality of pitching in the AFL, it’s fair to wonder about his combination of aggression and swing-and-miss tendencies. This is a long-standing issue dating back to pre-draft reports. He worked on it during the regular season – possibly to the detriment of his power. On-site observers raved about the quality of Kjerstad’s contact… whenever he connected. Between premium exit velocities, plenty of fly balls, and all those at bats, it’s no surprise he led the league in extra-base hits.
Such prospects succeed when they’re adept at making adjustments. Kjerstad should get his first taste of the upper minors at some point next season.

Jordan Walker, 20, OF/3B, STL (AA)
AFL: 90 PA, 5 HR, 3 SB, .286/.367/.558

While others had flashier showings, Walker was the talk of the AFL. He handled himself with poise while flashing a superstar ceiling – both by the traditional eye-test and via Statcast measurables. He likely could hold his own in the Majors as soon as next season. The Cardinals have been working on shifting him to the outfield in deference to Nolan Arenado. The main element lacking in Walker’s development is the easiest to supply – experience. He needs more opportunities to face and adjust to star-caliber pitching. Along the way, he’ll likely develop into a regular All-Star candidate.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
AFL: 68 PA, 6 HR, 2 SB, .262/.324/.590

Of AFL participants (excluding Joey Wentz), Mervis probably has the best chance to open 2023 in the Majors. Including the regular season, he hit 42 home runs in 646 plate appearances this year. Remarkably, especially for the AFL home run leader, he fanned just eight times (11.8% K%) this fall. He also improved his strikeout rate continuously throughout the regular season. He began in High-A, where he recorded a 24.1 percent strikeout rate. That dropped to just 20.0 percent in Double-A and 14.6 percent in Triple-A. The low rate at his final stop coincided with an 8.7 percent swinging strike rate – far better than the league average. If Mervis can continue to avoid strikeouts while tapping into his power, he’ll have a bright future as a mid-lineup left-handed slugger.

Five More

Edouard Julien (23): Julien has been covered ad nauseum in this column. No prospect did more to further their claim to a future Major League role this fall. He’ll almost certainly be protected from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. Julien’s combination of discipline, contact, sneaky pop, and sneakier baserunning are the traits of a regular. He still needs to settle into a position defensively – an issue that has arisen a few times in the Twins recent past (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda, Nick Gordon).

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Reifert allowed a hit in his final inning of work, closing out the season with 11.2 innings, 40 batters faced, one hit allowed, four walks, and 25 strikeouts. Despite a relatively low inning total, he had the second-most strikeouts. The showing will help put him in consideration for a Major League role next season. The Rays have a crammed 40-man roster, and Reifert isn’t Rule 5-eligible until next offseason.

Tyler Hardman, NYY (23): A developing slugger with potent pop, Hardman is coming off Player of the Week honors. Overall, he posted a .325/.373/.662 line in 83 plate appearances. Of qualified hitters, he had the fourth-best OPS. Contact and inconsistent defense at the hot corner hold him back from appearing on prospect lists.

Nick Gonzales, PIT (23): Gonzales dropped from the spotlight due to injury and flawed performance. His AFL stint allowed him to build on a solid first showing in Double-A. In both settings, he succeeded without truly impressing. Whiffs remain an issue for a second baseman who is heavily dependent on his offensive output.

Francisco Morales, PHI (23): Morales is an interesting AFL participant because the Phillies have already burned two of his option years. They’re likely assessing if he should remain on the roster at all. He was one of four pitchers to throw 10 or more AFL innings without allowing an earned run. He recorded 17 strikeouts with only four hits allowed in 10.2 innings. He also issued seven free passes. Those walk issues have haunted him on a regular basis.

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