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Matt McLain

Reds’ Matt McLain Shut Down For Remainder Of 2023 Season

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Rookie infielder Matt McLain has missed just shy of a month due to a right oblique strain and was expected to return from the 10-day injured list today, ready to join the Reds for the final week of their push for an NL wild card berth.  Unfortunately, McLain won’t be activated for at least the rest of the regular season, as the Reds told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that McLain suffered another oblique injury while rehabbing.

The new injury is a Grade 2 strain, a more serious type of oblique problem that would usually mean something in the neighborhood of a two-month layoff (at least).  Oblique injuries usually don’t have a set timeline, and yet even if the Reds were to make it all the way to the World Series, there doesn’t appear to be any chance that McLain will be part of even a deep postseason run.

It’s a tough outcome for both McLain and the Reds, who sit 2.5 games out of a wild card berth with five games remaining in their schedule.  The Phillies have all but clinched the top wild card berth and the Cubs and Diamondbacks are tied for the second and third WC slots, though Cincinnati won their season series against both Chicago and Arizona.  That would give the Reds the tiebreaker edge over either club in the event of a matching record, though the Marlins also sit between the Reds and the playoff line.

A team needs all the help it can get in such a tight pennant race, which is why the prospect of McLain’s return looked like such a boost to Cincinnati’s fortunes.  McLain has hit .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers over 403 plate appearances in his first MLB season, as he has been arguably the best of the several younger players coming up from the minors to immediately help carry the Reds into contention.  Between his offense (128 wRC+) and defensive contributions as both a shortstop and second baseman, McLain generated 3.2 fWAR over his 89 games.

This excellent rookie year certainly establishes McLain as a big part of the Reds’ future, though his absence has undoubtedly hampered the club’s present chances of the playoffs.  Cincinnati is 12-13 since McLain’s last game, though a long losing streak at the start of August already dealt a blow to the upstart team’s hopes.  The Reds at least got Jonathan India back from the IL earlier this month, and India and Elly De La Cruz have been regularly handling the middle infield duties.

NL Central Notes: Reds, Cubs, Taylor

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Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that outfielder Harrison Bader won’t return to the field this year, and that the odds of right-hander Tejay Antone making it back before 2024 are “remote.” While both players were already known to be out for the remainder of the regular season due to their recent placements on the injured list, Bell’s comments pour cold water on hopes of either player making an impact for Cincinnati this postseason in the event the Reds are able to claim one of the NL Wild Card spots. Pending the end of tonight’s game against Pittsburgh, the Reds currently sit two games behind the Cubs for the final NL Wild Card spot. The club is also one game back of the Marlins, the top NL club currently outside the postseason picture.

Antone made just five appearances out of the bullpen for the Reds this year due to injuries, but was dominant in that limited action with a 1.59 ERA and a 33.3% strikeout rate in 5 2/3 innings of work. Given the right-hander’s strong track record in Cincinnati when healthy, he figures to feature prominently in the club’s plans next year even in the event he doesn’t return this season.

The same can’t be said for Bader, a pending free agent who joined the Reds after being placed on waivers by the Yankees at the end of August. Bader had struggled with the bat in New York, slashing just .240/.278/.365 in 84 games with the club, but more than made up for it with his superlative glovework in center field. Unfortunately, his time in Cincinnati saw his work with the bat deteriorate even more as he posted a brutal .161/.235/.194 slash line in 14 games that was good for a wRC+ of just 15. That said, between his strong defense in center field and a much more promising career wRC+ of 92, Bader figures to hit free agency after the season with a chance to land a healthy contract.

Today’s injury news for the Reds isn’t all bad, however. Rookie infielder Matt McLain, who went on the injured list with an oblique strain nearly a month ago, is on the verge of returning per MLB.com. As discussed by Bell, McLain is headed for a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level and figures to play two games there before returning to the major league club, with Tuesday’s game against the Guardians standing as the club’s current target for McLain’s return. Assuming he’s fully healthy, McLain should bolster the club’s lineup in a big way given his .290/.357/.507 slash line in 403 trips to the plate this year.

More from the NL Central…

  • Cubs right-hander Marcus Stroman made his first start since July this afternoon, taking the ball against the Rockies at Wrigley Field. Stroman was activated from the injured list earlier this month to join the club’s bullpen and did well in that role, striking out four while allowing only an unearned run on two hits and a walk in three innings of work. Stroman’s return to the rotation left right-hander Javier Assad as the odd man out in the club’s starting plans. That being said, with Stroman not yet fully built up to a starter’s workload, Assad took the ball in relief of the veteran for four scoreless innings today, lowering the youngster’s ERA to 2.88 on the season. With Stroman back in the rotation, Assad figures to be a valuable multi-inning weapon for the Cubs out of the bullpen down the stretch. Chicago has plenty of high leverage opportunities available with Adbert Alzolay, Michael Fulmer, and Brad Boxberger all currently on the injured list.
  • Brewers outfielder Tyrone Taylor hasn’t played since Wednesday and was once again held out of the lineup today, with manager Craig Counsell indicating to MLB.com that the 29-year-old was dealing with some hamstring tightness. The club has decided to act cautiously rather than risk losing Taylor to an injury that could keep him out of the postseason, though Counsell added that he hopes Taylor will be able to return to the lineup for tomorrow’s game against the Marlins. Taylor was ice cold to start the year, resulting in a lackluster season slash line of just .233/.270/.408 in 210 plate appearances, but he’s been one of Milwaukee’s strongest offensive contributors since the start of August with a scorching hot .291/.341/.581 slash line including 11 doubles, a triple, and seven homers in 126 trips to the plate. Blake Perkins has gotten additional reps in the outfield in recent days with Taylor temporarily shelved.

NL Central Notes: Stroman, Cubs, McLain, India, Matz

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The Cubs have been without right-hander Marcus Stroman for just over a month now thanks to inflammation in the 32-year-old hurler’s right hip and a subsequently-diagnosed rib cartilage fracture. Upon the reveal of Stroman’s rib injury two weeks ago, whether or not he would be able to return this season came into question as he was set to be shut down for several weeks without a clear timeline for recovery. Fortunately for fans on the north side, Stroman’s timetable seems to be coming into focus with a return this season clearly still on the table.

Manager David Ross told reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times) ahead of today’s game against the Reds that Stroman will throw a bullpen session in Arizona. That still leaves a long way for Stroman to go before he can return to a major league mound; assuming tomorrow’s bullpen goes well, he’ll need to progress to facing live hitters and then likely require at least a rehab start or two in the minor leagues before he can return to the starting rotation for the Cubs. Still, even a brief cameo from Stroman before the regular season comes to a close could be a huge boon to Chicago.

Stroman sports a 3.85 ERA and 3.58 FIP across 23 starts this year, but it’s really been a tale of two seasons for the veteran hurler: while he posted a sterling 2.28 ERA and 3.33 FIP in his first sixteen starts, his final seven starts before hitting the injured list saw him post an ugly 9.00 ERA, albeit with a less outlandish 4.39 FIP. It’s hard to say how much of that downturn in performance was related to Stroman’s current injuries, but a healthy and effective return for the right-hander would not only help the Cubs as they look to make the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2018, but also give them another quality option to start in the playoffs alongside lefty ace Justin Steele and veteran hurler Kyle Hendricks, should they succeed in reaching the postseason.

More from around the NL Central:

  • Sticking with the Cubs, Lee also relayed updates from Ross regarding a trio of potential bullpen options for Chicago down the stretch. Left-hander Brandon Hughes and righties Nick Burdi and Ben Brown are expected to pitch today with Triple-A Iowa. Hughes was a breakout reliever for the Cubs last year with a 3.12 ERA in 57 2/3 innings of work with the club last year, but struggled through 13 2/3 injury-plagued innings earlier this season before undergoing knee surgery back in June. Hughes’s return to the bullpen would surely provide a boost for Chicago as swing option Drew Smyly is the only southpaw in the club’s bullpen at the moment. Brown has not yet pitched in the majors but is one of the club’s top prospects who had long been rumored as a potential late-season bullpen option prior to an injury that kept him out of action for the entire month of August. Burdi managed just three innings with the Cubs earlier this season in his first major league work since 2020 before going on the injured list with appendicitis and ulnar nerve irritation.
  • It seems the Reds will be without rookie infielder Matt McLain for a while yet, as the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith relayed an update from manager David Bell indicating that McLain would be out with an oblique injury for two to three more weeks. Such a timeline would likely leave him out of action for most of the remaining regular season. That’s a major blow to the Reds, who have relied on McLain’s strong bat (129 wRC+) and quality glovework around the infield and sit alongside the Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Giants in the thick of the race for the final NL Wild Card spot. Fortunately, the Reds could still receive some reinforcements for their infield in the near future as second baseman Jonathan India is on track to begin a rehab assignment this week after missing the past month with plantar fasciitis.
  • Cardinals manager Oli Marmol indicated to reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) that left-hander Steven Matz’s season could be in jeopardy as the veteran is still “week-to-week” in his rehab from a lat strain sustained last month. Marmol noted that there is “probably not” enough time for him to return in 2023. Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch adds that a return from Matz would likely be limited in terms of length, as Matz won’t have time to get stretched out as a starter before the season comes to a close. Matz has had an up-and-down season with the Cardinals this year but will end the season with solid overall numbers if he’s ultimately unable to return. In 25 appearances (17 starts), Matz posted a 3.86 ERA, 11% better than league average by measure of ERA+, with a 3.76 FIP in 105 innings of work.

Reds Place Matt McLain On IL With Oblique Strain

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The Reds announced today that infielder Matt McLain has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right oblique strain. His roster spot goes to outfielder Stuart Fairchild, who has been activated from the concussion list.

McLain, 24, has been one of several Cincinnati rookies to hit the ground running in the big leagues this year, helping the club vault themselves from rebuilding and into contending. Since getting promoted to the big leagues in May, he has struck out in 28.5% of his 403 plate appearances but has launched 16 home runs and stolen 14 bases. His .290/.357/.507 batting line translates to a 128 wRC+, indicating he’s been 28% better than the league average hitter. He’s also been graded as a strong defender at both middle infield positions, leading to a tally of 3.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in just 89 games this year.

Losing that kind of production is obviously an unfortunate development for the Reds, especially as they have been scuffling a bit lately. The club has gone 9-15 in August and is now a game and a half out of a playoff spot. They will now have to proceed without McLain for at least the next 10 days, which is unfortunate timing in a couple of ways. For one thing, the Reds are coming up to an important part of the schedule, with their next seven games coming against the Giants and Cubs, a couple of the clubs they are battling in the Wild Card race.

There’s also the fact that there’s just over a month left in the schedule, which gives McLain a narrow window of time to return. If he’s able to come back after a minimal stint, he could still rejoin the club for a few more weeks, but oblique injuries are notoriously irksome and could make that difficult for him. The club hasn’t yet provided any specific estimates on his absence, but more information on that front will likely be forthcoming.

McLain has primarily been serving as the second baseman of late, with Elly De La Cruz at shortstop. Spencer Steer, who has been playing left field, is at the keystone tonight in McLain’s absence but the depth chart is a little light at the position apart from that, especially with Jonathan India and Kevin Newman both on the injured list. Both De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte are shortstops and could theoretically handle the position, but Marte has never played there professionally and De La Cruz never in the majors. Jose Barrero is on the 40-man and has a bit of second base experience, but not much, just 10 2/3 innings in the majors and then 248 innings at Single-A back in 2018.

It’s also possible this injury could have an impact on National League Rookie of the Year voting, as McLain had emerged as one of the contenders for that award alongside some of his teammates and other players like Corbin Carroll, James Outman and Kodai Senga. Now that the new collective bargaining agreement allows club to potentially receive draft pick compensation based on awards voting under certain conditions, those races have implications beyond just the importance to the players themselves.

NL West Notes: Musgrove, Yaz, Brebbia, McLain, D’Backs

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After a three-week shutdown due to shoulder inflammation, Joe Musgrove has started a two-week throwing program as the first step towards a possible return from the injured list.  Musgrove tells Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune that he is aiming to be back with the Padres by late September and hopefully through the postseason, though he acknowledged that another shutdown is possible if the team is out of the pennant race.  Things are looking grim for the Padres at the moment, as they sit 6.5 games out of the last NL wild card position.

“There’s no need for me to be rushing and pushing things back if we’re out of this thing,” Musgrove said.  “But I have full confidence that we’re going to be in it, so these first two weeks are going to be important in just laying down the foundation work and being able to open up from there….It’s difficult knowing that there’s a chance I might not touch a mound again this year.  But every part of me mentally and physically is preparing to be able to get at least one more (start) in the regular season and then be strong for the playoffs.”

Between a broken toe suffered in Spring Training and his shoulder issue, it has been an injury-riddled year for the right-hander, as Musgrove has thrown only 97 1/3 innings.  His absences have been one of the reasons why San Diego is only on the fringes of contention, yet Musgrove has still looked like an ace when he has pitched, posting a 3.05 ERA over his 97 1/3 frames.  Acee writes that Musgrove will also probably undergo another MRI next week, to check up on the shoulder after the first few days of throwing.

Other items from around the NL West…

  • Mike Yastrzemski is closing in on a return from the injured list, as he recently took part in a live batting practice session and ran the bases yesterday.  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (X link) writes that Yastrzemski is set for more baserunning work tomorrow, and he has been working in the outfield today.  Yastrzemski has been out with a hamstring strain since July 30, and seemed to be on the verge of a return two weeks ago before suffering another strain during rehab work.  Now, the outfielder could return to San Francisco’s lineup as early as Monday, when the Giants begin an important series with the Reds.
  • In another Giants injury update, John Brebbia threw that live BP session to Yastrzemski, and Slusser writes that the plan is for Brebbia to throw another simulated game Sunday with an eye towards soon beginning a minor league rehab assignment.  Brebbia suffered a Grade 2 lat strain back in June, and he has been sidelined beyond his initial recovery timeline of 4-8 weeks.  While he’ll need some time to ramp up during his rehab assignment, Brebbia’s return could be a big boost to a Giants club in need of pitching help.  Brebbia has posted strong numbers as a swingman over the last two seasons, including a 3.14 ERA over 28 2/3 innings in 2023.
  • Matt McLain’s instant success with the Reds creates an interesting sliding-doors moment for the Diamondbacks, who drafted McLain 25th overall in 2018 but didn’t reach an agreement to sign.  Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes that the two sides couldn’t manage the gap between McLain’s ask for a $3MM bonus and the Diamondbacks’ offer, which was the $2,636,400 slot price attached to the 25th pick.  Beyond the money, McLain told Piecoro that “I was pretty set on [playing in college].  I wanted to go to UCLA.  I think that if I would have signed in the minor leagues at that point, I would have always wondered what UCLA was like and what I had missed out on.  I don’t think it was necessarily the other way around.”  As it turned out, McLain had a standout career in college, and ended up picked by the Reds with the 17th overall pick in the 2021 draft, receiving a $4.625MM bonus that was well above slot price.

Big Hype Prospects: Abbott, Brown, Encarnacion-Strand, Povich, Sheehan

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With so many clubs needing to plunge into the minors for pitching reinforcements, let’s put more attention on this next wave of arms.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Andrew Abbott, 24, SP, CIN (AAA)
31.1 IP, 13.21 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 3.16 ERA

Abbott walked all over the Southern League earlier this season, posting a 1.15 ERA with 20.68 K/9 and 1.72 BB/9 in three starts. The Reds got him out of there in a hurry – possibly because the pre-tacked ball used in that league was obscuring aspects of his development. Since arriving in Triple-A, Abbott has reverted to a good-not-great trajectory and there’s still risk he’ll eventually land in the bullpen. From a stuff perspective, he has a starter’s repertoire. Like most young pitchers, Abbott’s command can be inconsistent and mostly draws negative comments. There’s reason for concern about home run prevention, especially at Great American Ball Park.

Ben Brown, 23, SP, CHC (AAA)
24 IP, 13.50 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3.75 ERA

Brown was acquired from the Phillies in the David Robertson trade. Like Abbott, Brown dominated the Southen League (20 IP, 0.45 ERA) en route to a quick promotion. He’s continued to miss bats, albeit with a couple red flags. Per a statistical source, hitters have averaged a 91.3-mph exit velocity against Brown in Triple-A. It’s a small sample concern for now. Inconsistencies with his command remain on display, and the relief risk is palpable. While his fastball, slider, and curve are all viewed as above-average offerings, the lack of command and changeup are traits of pitchers who eventually land in the bullpen. We’ve seen plenty of guys succeed with non-traditional repertoires lately, but they usually rely on some sort of unicorn trait. I’m unaware of Brown fitting this mold.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
146 PA, 13 HR, .346/.384/.721

Prospects like CES tend to create a lot of arguments among the general public. He was one of the top minor league performers in 2022, and he’s repeating the effort this season. However, poor plate discipline and a hefty swinging-strike rate introduce considerable risk. There’s also doubt about his ability to stick at third base. Cincinnati has already conceded this by using him 17 games at first, seven at DH, and seven at third. Few first basemen are this ill-disciplined. Of qualified first basemen, only Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, and Ryan Mountcastle have walk rates below 6.0 percent. Drury and Urshela aren’t really first basemen. On the other hand, CES punishes baseballs when he connects, averaging 92.2-mph on contact. If he can mount any sort of resistance to the inevitable bevy of breaking balls out of the zone, he could develop into a legitimate 40-homer threat.

Cade Povich, 23, SP, BAL (AA)
40 IP, 13.73 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 4.50 ERA

Acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade, Povich probably deserves inclusion in the latter portion of Top 100 lists. The southpaw doesn’t have any overwhelming traits, but the total package resembles many adequate left-handers around the league. Povich’s basic stats suggest cause for both optimism and skepticism. His 2.20 FIP and 2.47 xFIP are a sight better than his 4.50 ERA – largely due to a .356 BABIP and 62.2 percent strand rate. In the minors, such stats can be more than the “luck” we generally attribute them to in the Majors, and Povich also had a poor strand rate in 2022. It could indicate issues pitching out of the stretch. I’ve reached out to a couple contacts for their thoughts.

Worth mentioning, the Eastern League is not using the pretacked ball.

Emmet Sheehan, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
44 IP, 15.55 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.64 ERA

The Texas League also isn’t using the pretacked ball. Sheehan started to generate hype late last season, culminating in a successful stint in the Arizona Fall League. Sheehan is overwhelming the Double-A competition as evidenced by a 20.1 percent swinging strike rate, .176 BABIP, and 97% strand rate. Such figures indicate luck, but they also speak of an ability to miss bats with impunity. The star of the show is a double-plus changeup. A prospect watcher tipped me off last season about changeup artists – they tend to overperform in the minors. At the time, we were discussing Grayson Rodriguez. Like the other pitchers we’ve covered today, Sheehan’s command sparks comments about a future in the bullpen. Scouts also seem to dislike his mechanics – he tends to fall off hard to the first base line. I tend to ignore such comments. Goofy mechanics may (or may not) increase injury risk, but they also lead to unusual looks for hitters.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain, who we discussed in this section last week, has rushed out to a heady .380/.456/.600 performance in 57 Major League plate appearances. Red flags include a .531 BABIP, modest exit velocities, and 28.1 percent strikeout rate. However, McLain is showing power, advanced plate discipline, and a high rate of swinging contact (7.3 percent SwStr%).

Zach Dezenzo, HOU (23): Although not yet on the radar for top prospect status, Dezenzo is quickly accelerating through the Astros system as a third baseman. A scout brought him to my attention a month ago. He’s a low-angle, line-drive machine, leading to high BABIPs. There’s considerable swing-and-miss in his game, introducing risk of stalling in the upper minors. Dezenzo was recently promoted to Double-A.

Johan Rojas, PHI (22): For fans of Esteury Ruiz, Rojas basically has a better version of a similar profile. He doesn’t visually look like Alfonso Soriano the way Ruiz does, but you can easily discern the athletic ability. Unlike Ruiz, he’s already regarded as a plus center fielder. Already on the 40-man roster, Rojas seems likely to ascend to Triple-A in the coming weeks.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Williams, Davis

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Due to travel, it’s been a little over a month since the last Big Hype Prospects. Let’s check in on who is making waves.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A+)
(A/A+)158 PA, 6 HR, 11 SB, .394/.513/.701

Holliday’s introduction to professional baseball could not be more encouraging. He leads all qualified minor league hitters with a 222 wRC+. After wrecking Low-A pitching, he’s eviscerating High-A competition in the same manner. He evinces excellent plate discipline and a feel for stinging contact. His nearly .500 BABIP isn’t the product of luck – he’s simply outclassing the competition with an all-fields approach. If there’s a quibble, it’s that he rarely lofts the ball. Even so, that’s not affecting his power output – he has an excellent .300 ISO on the season.

To outside observers, Holliday is seemingly ready for a challenge at Double-A. It’s worth remembering he has just 93 plate appearances in High-A and a total of only 248 professional plate appearances. As long as the Orioles don’t believe he’s stagnating, a longer stint in High-A could prove appropriate. A stable environment helps with certain types of learning. On the other hand, we’re all eager to see what he does when finally challenged.

Junior Caminero, 19, 3B, TBR (A+)
146 PA, 11 HR, 2 SB, .351/.404/.709

I’ve put out a few calls for updated notes on Caminero since those I’ve gathered disagree about his future feel for contact. Presently, few hitters have shown comparable capacity for power. The folks at FanGraphs emphasized “his lack of ball/strike recognition” in a recent report, a concern shared by other evaluators. However, as others point out, such issues are hardly unprecedented among successful Major Leaguers. In this day and age, it’s not as if a 19-year-old slugger is incapable of making adjustments. It hasn’t been a problem in High-A because practically everything he hits is hammered. His .362 ISO ranks sixth in the minors. Double-A will mark an important challenge for Caminero.

Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
158 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .302/.430/.426

Carter can be a divisive prospect. It’s so easy to fall in love with the discipline and feel for contact. A Major League future feels inevitable. The floor for Carter is seemingly so high. Brandon Nimmo comps abound. All the same traits – even body type and line-drive-based power are there. It’s rare for prospect analysis to gush about a player’s floor, and perhaps that’s the problem with Carter. We’re usually focused on ceiling and, barring a change, Carter’s feels limited; like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best core contributors in the league. Will we find him on many All-Star teams? Probably not at his current power output.

The same point I made with Caminero applies to Carter. Never has it been easier for players to make positive adjustments to their game. Just because a prospect looks and feels like Brandon Nimmo doesn’t mean they’re destined to stay in their lane. Carter could follow the path of Lars Nootbaar to higher exit velocities. Or, like a different Cardinals outfielder, he could stall out against some aspect of Major League pitching.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 40 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.58 ERA

A number of my favorite pitching prospects are in the Guardians system, and Williams is probably the best of the bunch. After three laser-sharp outings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A where he’s remained effective. He worked 115 innings last season, so there is some scope for him to contribute in the Majors this season while managing his workload. However, the Guardians will soon welcome back Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. A near-term opportunity might not present itself. Williams features a four-pitch repertoire of upper-90s fastball, well-commanded slider, curve, and changeup. To my eyes, it looks as if he has sinking and riding fastballs – or perhaps the pitch behaved differently based on vertical location (I haven’t seen this mentioned in reports). Like most power pitchers, the changeup lags behind the other offerings, though it is viewed as a viable pitch with promise. The word “intensity” appears on multiple public reports.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
141 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, .297/.447/.631

Davis’ second tour in Double-A is going swimmingly. After a mere 97 wRC+ over a similar span last season, his current 189 wRC+ ranks sixth in the minors. He’s also showing the walk, strikeout, and contact rates of a future star. Davis was drafted as a slugging catcher who might eventually wind up at first base. As yet, the Pirates have mostly used him as a catcher this season with a few odd starts at designated hitter and right field. Davis has an extreme, pulled, fly ball approach which isn’t exactly suited to PNC Park. However, he has the raw power to make it work even if a few would-be dingers die on the warning track. It’s feeling increasingly probable we see both Davis and Endy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh later this summer – especially if the club can remain competitive in the standings.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain was selected about a week ago after hitting .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A. In 22 plate appearances, he has 10 strikeouts and four hits. He’s struggled to make impactful contact after averaging 90.9-mph EV in Triple-A. McLain has a narrow window to impress Cincinnati decision-makers before the likes of Elly De La Cruz and others arrive on the scene.

Nolan Jones, COL (25): A post-hype prospect, Jones is a disciplined power hitter who has a bit of a Quad-A reputation at the moment. He’s producing a .362/.486/.723 line in a heady offensive environment with 90.5-mph average EV (113.7-mph Max EV). He’s splitting time between first base, third base, and right field – all positions the Rockies could stand to upgrade (at least indirectly).

Ethan Salas, SDP (16): As my favorite contact put it, “Salas is bound to be the first 16-year-old position player in a full-season league in a loooooong time.” The young catcher is already entering Top 100 lists.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to discuss corrections.

Reds Place TJ Friedl On IL With Oblique Strain

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The Reds announced a series of roster moves today, including the selection of prospect Matt McLain, which was reported on yesterday. To make room for McLain on the active roster, outfielder TJ Friedl was placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left oblique strain, retroactive to May 12. To open a spot for McLain on the 40-man roster, first baseman Joey Votto was transferred to the 60-day IL. Additionally, left-hander Brandon Williamson is with the club on the taxi squad.

Friedl recently underwent an MRI which revealed only mild damage, though manager David Bell said on the weekend that the club would take 48 hours to decide on whether or not an IL trip was needed. It seems that they have decided on the cautious approach and will give Friedl a bit of a breather. Since the move is backdated, he can return in a week if the issue does indeed prove to be minor.

The loss of Friedl is rough for the Reds, as he’s been having a great season so far. He’s hitting .306/.351/.468 for a wRC+ of 117 while stealing four bases and getting good grades for his glovework, leading to a tally of 1.2 wins above replacement from FanGraphs after just 37 games. He’ll now hit the shelf but his absence will create an opening for McLain, one of the club’s many interesting infield prospects.

Votto’s move to the 60-day injured list isn’t a shock as he’s still trying to get healthy in the wake of last year’s rotator cuff and bicep surgery. He started a rehab assignment earlier this year but halted that in the middle of April and has yet to resume playing in official games. Since the 60-day count goes from his initial IL placement at the end of March, he’s now ineligible to return until late May, which didn’t seem to be on the table anyway.

As for Williamson, he’s one of the club’s top pitching prospects and could potentially be making his major league debut this week. The Reds have a couple of rotation vacancies after recently designating Luis Cessa for assignment and placing Nick Lodolo on the injured list. Perhaps Williamson will be slotted into one of those openings, though that has yet to be made official. He’s already on the 40-man roster but would require a corresponding move to get onto the active roster.

Reds To Promote Matt McLain

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The Reds are set to call up infield prospect Matt McLain, according to Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  McLain is expected to make his MLB debut when the Reds open a series against the Rockies on Monday.  Since McLain isn’t on the 40-man roster, Cincinnati may have to make more than one transaction to accommodate his promotion onto the active roster.

The 17th overall pick of the 2021 draft, McLain was a highly touted player in his college days at UCLA, and he has made a quick rise through Cincinnati’s farm system.  His breakout year at Triple-A seemed to clinch his promotion, as McLain has hit an outstanding .346/.464/.713 with 12 homers over 168 plate appearances at Triple-A Louisville this season.

Even with just 37 games under his belt at the Triple-A level, these numbers are awfully hard to ignore, and so the 23-year-old will now embark on his next test in the Show.  While McLain has played a good deal of second base in the minors, he has exclusively played shortstop this year, and now looks to supplant the Kevin Newman/Jose Barrero combination at shortstop.

McLain was cited on the top-100 prospect lists from MLB Prospectus (77th) and MLB Pipeline (87th) prior to the 2022 season, but didn’t receive any top-100 attention heading into this year, though his Triple-A surge moved him back to 95th on Pipeline’s most recent update to their ranking.  As per Pipeline’s scouting report, there was concern over McLain’s big spike in strikeouts at Double-A in 2022, as “much of that stemmed from McLain trying to do too much at the plate as he was trying to figure out who he is as a pro hitter and he sold out for power too often.”

To that end, McLain has drastically and impressively cut down on his swing-and-miss this year, with almost as many walks (27) as strikeouts (33) at Louisville.  His plus speed has resulted in 10 steals in 15 attempts at Triple-A, but McLain stole 27 bases in 30 tries at Double-A in 2022.

Baseball America’s little report is a little less optimistic about McLain’s future as a regular, saying “he projects as a super-utility player who can play a variety of positions including shortstop in a pinch.”  It remains to be seen if shortstop will remain McLain’s long-term position, though beyond just defensive questions, his usage might also be impacted by the Reds’ oncoming rush of talented young infielders.  Elly De La Cruz is one of baseball’s elite prospects and is also expected to make his MLB debut at some point in 2023, and third baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand shouldn’t be too far behind on the shuttle from Louisville.  Infielders Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, and Cam Collier are also ranked within Pipeline’s top 100, and of course Jonathan India is already established as the Reds’ second baseman and Spencer Steer has been playing respectably well in his rookie season.

It makes for a pretty nice “problem” for the Reds to have as they sort out who exactly will be part of their infield of the future, and with the team in rebuild mode at least through the rest of 2023, they’ll have plenty of time to keep evaluating these youngsters.  McLain will get the first chance at making a first impression, and it could be that he might get bounced around the diamond early if De La Cruz is called up and takes over the shortstop job.

Since McLain wasn’t included on at least two of the preseason top-100 lists from Pipeline, Baseball America or ESPN.com, he won’t qualify for a full year of big league service time even if he finishes in the top two of Rookie Of The Year voting.  However, assuming McLain remains in the majors for the rest of 2023, he should bank enough service time to potentially qualify for Super Two status and an extra year of arbitration eligibility.

Big Hype Prospects: Veen, Sheehan, Kjerstad, Mervis, McLain

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Big Hype Prospects continues with a look at the early results from the Arizona Fall League. This is, historically, a hitter-centric league so it will come as no surprise that the best early performers are mostly position players.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Zac Veen, 20, OF, COL (AA)
AFL: 31 PA, 1 HR, 7 SB, .455/.581/.636

Veen has posted video-game numbers, especially on the basepaths. During the regular season, he stole 55 bases in 64 attempts (541 plate appearances). He’s upped the ante in Arizona, swiping a league-leading seven bags in eight attempts. Veen’s biggest statistical weakness is an elevated swinging strike rate. To close out the season, he posted a 15 percent swinging strike rate at Double-A while batting .177/.262/.234 in 141 plate appearances. His early rebound at the fall league is an encouraging sign.

Emmet Sheehan, 22, SP, LAD (AA)
AFL: 6 IP, 5 K, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 HBP, 0.00 ERA

One of only a few pitchers with serious clout in the AFL, Sheehan has held opponents scoreless through two appearances. He’s presently on the cusp of Top 100 prospect status for many evaluators. The Dodgers consistent ability to get the most out of their pitching prospects certainly contributes an added hint of optimism.

Command is the limiting factor for his development, and it happens to be the only thing he’s struggled with thus far in Arizona. Sheehan’s repertoire is a tad unusual. While a fastball-curve-changeup trio sounds vanilla, he’s a right-hander whose best pitch is a changeup. His fastball and curve tunnel well and can have upwards of 20-mph of separation. Scouting reports tend to downplay his curve when viewed on its own, but the pitch seems to play up within his repertoire.

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (A+)
AFL: 40 PA, 3 HR, .368/.400/.711

The second-overall pick of the weird 2020 draft, Kjerstad missed all of 2021 due to heart inflammation. He finally made his minor league debut this season. He steamrolled Low-A pitchers in 98 plate appearances then struggled versus High-A opponents. Since he’s missed so much time, his performance in the AFL will have more influence on how evaluators view him than most other participants. Presently, he’s tied for the league lead with three home runs. Notably, he’s also struck out 10 times which is right on par with his strikeout rate in High-A.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
AFL: 21 PA, 3 HR, .263/.333/.842

The co-leader in home runs is Mervis. He’s accomplished the feat in 19 fewer plate appearances than Kjerstad. Mervis spent the regular season climbing from High- to Triple-A. Along the way, he hit 36 home runs in 578 plate appearances. His plate discipline and contact rates improved at every level, culminating in a 10.4 percent walk rate, 14.6 percent strikeout rate, and 8.7 percent swinging strike rate in Triple-A. He’s a classic pulled contact, fly ball masher built for the height of the juiced ball era. He should arrive in Chicago early next season. He’ll enjoy Wrigley Field when the winds are blowing out.

Matt McLain, 23, SS, CIN (AA)
AFL: 30 PA, 2 SB, .200/.467/.250

A talented middle infielder now overshadowed by Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte, McLain could make a case for a quick promotion to the Majors with a strong showing this fall. To date, he’s shown epic patience, working a league-leading 10 walks in just 30 plate appearances. He’ll need to show a stronger knack for making quality contact, whether in play or over the fence. His 2022 campaign at Double-A was characterized by plenty of discipline (15.5 percent walk rate), decent power (.221 ISO), and a poor .232 batting average. While batting average isn’t tightly related to production, most quality prospects tend to post high averages in the minors.

Five More

Joey Wentz, DET (24): It’s uncommon but not entirely unheard of for players with Major League experience to play in the AFL. Wentz pitched 32.2 effective innings with the Tigers, including a 3.03 ERA (4.56 xFIP). He missed the early portion of the season, so he’ll make a few extra starts to further build his workload. A former 40th-overall pick, Wentz threw four perfect innings in his first AFL appearance.

Luisangel Acuna, TEX (20): Acuna lacks the same raw tools as his talented older brother, but his development has progressed encouragingly nonetheless. He reached Double-A as a 20-year-old. He has picked up where he left off in the AFL, batting .300/.323/.633 with a pair of home runs in 31 plate appearances. Don’t worry about the low walk rate, his discipline might be his carrying trait.

Nick Yorke, BOS (20): After a poor regular season campaign, Yorke is looking to put his name back on the map with a hot finish. Thus far, he’s hitting .300/.410/.400 in 39 plate appearances. He’s yet to homer or steal a base. He has, however, worked six walks compared to six strikeouts. In High-A, his strikeout rate was three times higher than his walk rate.

Zack Gelof, OAK (22): Gelof is well-regarded by Athletics personnel, though his on-field results weren’t ideal. He finished the year on a power-binge in Triple-A, blasting five home runs in 38 plate appearances. He blasted two home runs on Thursday, his first of the AFL season. Overall, he’s batting .259/.355/.481.

Jordan Lawlar, ARI (20): Although he sputtered statistically to end the season in Double-A, scouting reports continually put Lawlar in the discussion for the number one prospect. In 32 plate appearances, he’s hitting .333/.500/.667 with two home runs and three steals in four attempts. 2023 is his age 20 season, and there’s an outside chance he’ll debut. A hot AFL would help those odds.

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