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Matt Harvey

Rangers, Mets Have Discussed Profar/Harvey Swap; Orioles Also Talking Harvey

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5:00pm: A Brach-Harvey swap is unlikely to occur, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets.

4:34pm: The Orioles are discussing dealing a reliever for Harvey tweets Rosenthal, who lists Brad Brach and Darren O’Day as potential trade chips.

3:28pm: The Rangers aren’t willing to trade Profar for a year of control, Grant tweets.

2:59pm: The Orioles are also discussing Harvey with the Mets, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The possible structure isn’t at all clear at this point.

Heyman, meanwhile, throws some doubt on the entire idea of Texas and New York linking up in a follow-up tweet. Profar’s control rights may be too valuable for Harvey from the Rangers’ perspective, he suggests. The Rangers were also looking into other Mets pitchers, Marc Carig of Newsday tweets.

2:50pm: The Rangers and Mets have engaged in some discussions on a possible deal that would involve Texas infielder Jurickson Profar and New York righty Matt Harvey. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News first broached the possibility while Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweeted that the sides have engaged in some chatter.

It’s tough to know just what to make of the news at this point. We heard recently that New York will consider moving Harvey, a former ace who has been a shell of himself of late. He’s projected to earn $5.9MM in arbitration before reaching the open market at the end of the season. While the Mets still need the rotation depth and would no doubt prefer to see for themselves whether Harvey can return to form, there’s also a long and checkered history to consider along with the team’s many other roster needs — including a second baseman.

On the Rangers’ side, Profar has become a forgotten man. He did not receive a late-season call-up after an early demotion to the minors, a decision that also left the Rangers with three more seasons of arb control. That enhances Profar’s trade value, though certainly his marginal overall big league showing — a .229/.309/.329 slash over 718 plate appearances — makes it questionable whether he’ll draw a significant return. Profar has shown more in the minors, though. Indeed, he batted a strong .287/.383/.428 in his 383 trips to the plate at Triple-A in 2017, drawing 43 walks while going down on strikes just 33 times.

The assumption long has been that the Rangers would look to deal Profar this winter, as he’s out of options and does not have an obvious place on the roster. And the team certainly still needs starting pitching even after two early moves to bolster the rotation. Whether Harvey is the right risk to take, though, is anyone’s guess. He has shown that he can still bring a mid-nineties fastball, but the velo is still down against his pre- and early-post-Tommy John numbers and Harvey also showed a rising walk rate (10.9%) and plummeting swinging-strike rate (7.5%) in 2017.

Similarly, the Mets will have some questions as to whether it’s worth taking a shot on Profar. All told, it’s a trade scenario that would have been quite a bit more exciting a few years ago but which could still make some sense for both organizations. It’s certainly possible, too, that other pieces could become involved in discussions.

Mets Reportedly Willing To Trade Matt Harvey

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Sources close to Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News tell her that the Mets have talked to “at least two teams” about trading former All-Star Matt Harvey this winter. This seems to be part of a larger strategy that Ackert describes as “dipping into their strength of starting pitchers to address their needs heading into the 2018 season.”

One of Ackert’s sources says that the Mets want to “flip Harvey for a reliever”, and are more interested in moving him than fellow Amazin starters Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo. The report aligns with quotes from GM Sandy Alderson, who told reporters that no player on the roster is untouchable (though in contradiction, the organization has seemingly made it clear that starters Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are not on the table).

The thought of trading the right-handed Harvey for a relief pitcher would have seemed ludicrous as recently as 2015. After missing the 2014 season due to Tommy John surgery, Harvey seemingly made a full recovery; he pitched to a sparkling 2.71 ERA across 189 1/3 innings, including a fantastic month of August during which he allowed just one earned run spanning four starts. His performance helped the Mets to a 90-72 record en route to their first NL East pennant since 2006.

Unfortunately, Harvey’s numbers plummeted steeply in 2016. The one-time ace experienced a slight drop in velocity (along with some terrible batted ball fortune), which led to a 4-10 record and a 4.86 ERA prior to season-ending surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. His velocity and strikeout rate dropped off even further in 2017, leading to horrific peripherals: 6.51 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, and a 6.39 FIP that ranked third-worst among pitchers who started at least 15 games.

The Dark Knight’s fall from grace has been widely publicized. His trade value, of course, is at an all-time low; Harvey performed at nearly a full win below replacement level last season, carries significant injury risk, and projects to earn a $5.9MM salary in his final year of arbitration. Though he carries significant upside, it’s fair to wonder how likely Harvey is to revert back to his 2015 form. After failing to reach 100 innings in each of the past two seasons, teams are likely to be skeptical over Harvey’s bounce-back potential.

Still, it’s not difficult to imagine an MLB club taking a flyer on Harvey at the price of an “impact reliever.” The Yankees and Brewers, for example, seem to have reasonable bullpen depth and a need in the rotation; either of them could feasibly flip a relief arm for the chance to play roulette with the former six-WAR player. It’s also important to note that the Mets’ wish list isn’t limited to bullpen help. The club is also looking to add a second baseman, along with a part-time first baseman or outfielder (link).

While Harvey has performed poorly in recent years, it’s worth noting that he’ll enter the 2018 season at just under 29 years of age. Regardless of whether he’s traded or not, his storyline headed into 2018 will be captivating and suspenseful.

 

NL East Notes: Braves, Harvey, Mets, Jones

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The league’s investigation into the Braves for international signing violations is still ongoing, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. Indeed, MLB is sending out investigators to chat with club officials this week. It’s doubtful that any results will be released while the postseason is ongoing, but all eyes will be on commissioner Rob Manfred as things progress. The investigation has already resulted in the resignations of Atlanta GM John Coppolella and special assistant Gordon Blakely; at this point, it’s far from clear just where it could go and what kind of fallout might occur.

Here’s more from the NL East:

  • Agent Scott Boras discussed the offseason challenges facing his client, Mets righty Matt Harvey, with Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Harvey will work through “a substantial throwing program” in which he’ll work on restoring his command and release point, says Boras. While the veteran player rep didn’t sugarcoat the situation, he did note that Harvey has at least already regained much of his velocity and will have a better opportunity to iron things out this offseason.
  • The Mets have hired a new Triple-A manager. Per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, via Twitter, the club has tapped Tony DeFrancesco to run the dugout at Las Vegas. He had held the same job at the Astros’ top affiliate for the last seven seasons, but a change was made at the end of the year. Of course, the Mets are still weighing a more significant managerial hire at the MLB level.
  • In some oddly timed news, the Nationals announced just before tonight’s game that it has suspended assistant hitting coach Jacque Jones (as first reported, on Twitter, by Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). Details are hazy, but as Janes writes, Jones and the team were named in a lawsuit in which an unidentified woman alleges that Jones wrongly distributed sexually explicit photographs of her. Just why the organization was included in the claim is not clear.

NL East Notes: Harvey, Collins, Wittgren

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The Mets are indeed preparing to tender righty Matt Harvey a contract, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports. MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined the matter just yesterday, explaining why the club likely sees the 28-year-old as a worthwhile investment despite his marked struggles. GM Sandy Alderson had already made that rather clear, but Heyman suggests it’s all but a done deal and adds some context. New York, he says, may mostly plan to rely on the team’s slate of internal rotation options while investing instead in the bullpen.

More from the NL East:

  • It seems likely the Mets will move on from Terry Collins, as we’ve also heard recently, but Mike Puma of the New York Post gives the clearest indication yet that the veteran skipper will probably depart. Per the report, ownership is not expected to override the baseball ops department, which seemingly intends to notify Collins of its decision shortly. The club’s precise plans for the potential managerial vacancy remain unknown, though Puma says it’s fairly likely that New York will look to bring in a new skipper that has previous “ties to the organization.” He lists Robin Ventura, Alex Cora, Kevin Long, Bob Geren, and Chip Hale as potential candidates.
  • Marlins righty Nick Wittgren underwent surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow, as he himself tweeted. Notably, Wittgren fills us in on one underappreciated aspect of the work of Dr. James Andrews: the famed surgeon was thoughtful enough to send his patient home with the malevolent spur. Wittgren, 26, will have a full offseason to get healthy (as well as a new trophy). He had an interesting 2017 season, recording 9.1 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 over 42 1/3 innings, but managed only a 4.68 ERA. As the Miami organization looks for ways to make its roster leaner, Wittgren holds out some hope of providing useful relief innings at a budget rate of pay.

Tendering A Contract To Matt Harvey

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As part of our ongoing MLBTR Mailbag series, we’ve decided to begin branching off frequent topics of interest and expanding upon them at greater length than we’d normally spend in one post that answers four to six separate questions. This will be the first of several such posts to follow in the new format, and you can submit questions for consideration here via email: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com.

Why would the Mets not non-tender Matt Harvey? Are 7.00-ERA pitchers with upside really that hard to find? Or is there an emotional/attachment thing going on? — Josh M.

Josh isn’t the only person with this sentiment — especially based on the comments in the wake of GM Sandy Alderson’s suggestion that the Mets will indeed tender a contract to Harvey this winter.

The frustration that Mets fans feel with the performance of the former “Dark Knight” and Harvey’s own frustration (which he’s voiced on multiple occasions) are understandable. To borrow from Harvey’s own blunt self-evaluation, he’s been “terrible all the way around” in 2017 — his first season back from surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome last summer. That operation was the second major surgery in Harvey’s career, as he also had Tommy John surgery following the 2013 campaign.

The attrition rate following TOS surgery seems to be greater than after Tommy John surgery, and Harvey is one of the only pitchers in recent memory to have both operations in such close proximity. Viewed through that lens, this season’s 6.60 ERA through 88 2/3 innings perhaps shouldn’t be all that surprising. Harvey has been working with diminished velocity (though it’s been trending up lately) and has posted career-worst K/9 (6.5) and BB/9 (4.5) marks while averaging 2.03 HR/9. It has not, to put it mildly, been a very good season.

That said, it’s been just two years since Harvey came back from TJS to throw 189 1/3 innings in the regular season with a 2.71 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate. Harvey further rose to the occasion with 26 2/3 innings of 3.04 ERA ball in the postseason (though Mets fans will forever debate Terry Collins’ decision to leave him in for the ninth inning of a Game 5 against the Royals). Simply put, from 2012-15, Harvey was one of the best young pitchers on the planet. Even his 2016 season, which ended with a disappointing 4.86 ERA and his eventual TOS procedure, featured solid K/BB numbers and a 3.47 FIP.

To the greater point here, it is indeed possible to find passable arms at bargain one-year rates in free agency. However, Harvey is in for at best a modest raise on this season’s $5.125MM salary. Looking back over the past few offseasons, the free agent starters that have signed one-year deals worth less than $6MM include: Clayton Richard, Jhoulys Chacin, Jered Weaver, Trevor Cahill, Tommy Milone, Jesse Chavez, Mat Latos, Tim Lincecum (mid-season in 2016), Henderson Alvarez, Brandon Beachy, Bud Norris and Aaron Harang. Weaver was 34 when he signed his deal (and retired partway through the 2017 season). One could argue that Lincecum or perhaps Beachy carried significant upside, but both were returning from serious injuries, were older than Harvey and were further removed from success than Harvey is now.

Last offseason, Derek Holland signed a one-year, $6MM contract with the White Sox after throwing a combined 203 innings from 2013-16. With all due respect to Holland, his upside isn’t on par with that of Harvey. Meanwhile, Tyson Ross also signed for one year and $6MM after undergoing his own TOS surgery. If Ross was able to find $6MM on the heels of a season he spent entirely on the DL — his lone appearance in 2016 came on Opening Day — that should be an indication that paying a younger Harvey at a roughly comparable rate isn’t exactly an overpay by market standards.

Moreover, if the 2017 season proved anything, it’s that the Mets need to stockpile as many reasonably priced arms and rotation depth options as possible. With injuries to Harvey, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Seth Lugo, Zack Wheeler and Robert Gsellman impacting the staff at various points throughout the season, it doesn’t seem prudent to be cutting ties with a fairly inexpensive young arm. If anything, the Mets will probably aim to bring in some low-cost veterans on minor league deals that could be stashed at Triple-A and emerge as big league options in 2018 should their injury issues persist.

Sandy Alderson Suggests Mets Will Likely Retain Matt Harvey For 2018

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Despite the increasingly worrying health issues and pitching struggles of former Mets ace Matt Harvey, the club isn’t ready to give up on his talent. As GM Sandy Alderson tells Mike Puma of the New York Post, “it’s high unlikely that we’re not going to bring [Harvey] back next year.”

Harvey is still just 28 years old and isn’t far removed from being one of the game’s most dominant starters. If there was concern when he limped to a 4.86 ERA in 17 starts last year, though, it’s all the more pressing now that he has surrendered 6.59 earned per nine through the same number of outings in the current season.

The enigmatic righty has averaged less than five frames per start while managing only 6.6 K/9 against an uncharacteristic 4.5 BB/9. He has seen his velocity waver over the course of the season (with an average that’s down one mph from last year and two mph from the prior season). And his swinging-strike rate has plummeted to 7.5% and yet more arm problems have arisen during the year.

Despite all that, New York evidently sees value in tendering Harvey a contract in his final year of arbitration eligibility. And that’s really not surprising. Harvey will get at least a marginal raise on this year’s $5.125MM arb salary, but the bill will remain well within range of the one-year guarantees that other interesting bounceback type pitchers command in free agency.

While there’s some risk in paying Harvey, notes Puma, there’s probably even greater risk to the front office if it lets him find his form elsewhere. And it isn’t as if the team can’t use the possible innings that Harvey will be expected to provide; talent and uncertainty abound in the rest of the staff, too.

For now, Alderson says, the club will “keep running him out there and see what happens.” It seems that’ll be the approach in 2018 as well — so long as the Mets don’t find a surprise trade and Harvey shows enough promise in camp that he isn’t cut loose to avoid fully guaranteeing his arb payout.

NL East Notes: Harvey, Syndergaard, Prado, Braves

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Mets righty Matt Harvey turned in another abysmal start last night, leaving him with a 13.19 ERA in his four outings since returning from the DL. As Marc Carig of Newsday writes, Harvey seemed rather dejected after the game, calling his work “terrible all the way around” — though, perhaps, there’s at least some cause for hope in the fact that he is working in the mid-nineties with his fastball. Of course, that’s hardly sufficient in and of itself, and the results have been sobering. “Everybody’s watching,” said Harvey. “I don’t really know what there is to say except for there is nothing to say. It’s terrible. It’s not fun. There’s really nothing to say. There’s no reason for questions. There’s no answers.”

  • Meanwhile, the Mets are still waiting to see just how fellow righty Noah Syndergaard will look when he returns to the majors after a long layoff for a partial lat tear. As Mike Puma of the New York Post reports, though, it’s likely at this point that Syndergaard will only be allowed to make two appearances. It had been hoped at one point that he’d be able to make a much more significant return to end the year, but the club has understandably exercised caution. The young ace, after all, is a critically important member of a pitching staff that possesses many questions heading into the offseason.
  • It’s now unlikely that Marlins third baseman Martin Prado will make it back for any significant playing time before the end of the 2017 season, Tim Healey of the Sun-Sentinel reports. The veteran has been trying to return from knee surgery, but his rehab efforts were interrupted by Hurricane Irma. Whether or not he can suit up, it seems promising at least that the 33-year-old seems to have bounced back fairly well from the procedure. After all, he’s still promised another $28.5MM over the next two seasons.
  • The Braves appear to be closing in on yet another stadium deal with significant taxpayer money involved. As Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, construction on a new Spring Training facility in North Port, Florida will begin in short order — if the deal is approved today by the city’s commissioners. In addition to the well-documented move to SunTrust Park for the major-league club, the Braves have found accommodating local governments to help build stadiums for several team-owned minor-league affiliates in recent years. This latest project, in Sarasota County, has already ballooned to just over $100MM in projected costs — just over half of which will be the responsibility of the ballclub.

East Notes: Happ, Dickey, Mets, Price, Phillies

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It’s already known that the Blue Jays pulled right-hander Marco Estrada back from waivers after he was claimed (reportedly by the Yankees) earlier this month, and FanRag’s Jon Heyman reports that the Jays also pulled left-hander J.A. Happ back off revocable trade waivers at some point in August. As such, he’s ineligible to be traded before tomorrow night’s deadline for postseason eligibility. Happ, 35 in October, is in the second season of a three-year, $36MM contract and is owed the balance of a $13MM salary (about $2.2MM) plus another $13MM in 2018. Toronto’s decision to pull him back is consistent with their reluctance to listen on other assets controlled beyond ’17 (e.g. Josh Donaldson). By all accounts, the Blue Jays seem intent on fielding a contending club in 2018, and Happ is likely viewed as an important part of that. He’ll join young right-handers Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman in next year’s rotation, though the Toronto front office will likely have some work to do in the offseason.

A bit more out of the game’s Eastern divisions…

  • Braves righty R.A. Dickey sat down with Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution to discuss the team’s young core of pitchers as well as his own future. Dickey, 42, spoke with Burns about the lessons that he’s tried to teach younger arms like Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb and others, as well as the influence of other veterans like Freddie Freeman and Brandon Phillips. Asked about his own future in light of a recent run of strong starts, Dickey tells Burns that there’s “no doubt in his mind” that he’s physically capable of continuing his career, but the decision will be made collectively with his wife and four children following the 2017 season. The Q&A is well worth a full read-through — especially for Braves fans, of course.
  • The Mets provided a series of health updates on their many injured players once again today (h/t: James Wagner of the New York Times, on Twitter). Right-hander Matt Harvey tossed a bullpen session today and is on track to make a return to the big league mound this Saturday against the Astros. Fellow righty Noah Syndergaard will set out on a minor league rehab assignment that same day, tossing an inning for the Mets’ Gulf Coast League affiliate. Meanwhile, Michael Conforto has received a second opinion on his shoulder, but there’s no update of a diagnosis or treatment plan. Infielders David Wright and T.J. Rivera are set for further exams in New York.
  • Red Sox manager John Farrell said in an appearance on WEEI’s Dale, Holley & Keefe that the team cannot rule out the possibility of David Price returning as a reliever this season (via WEEI’s Ryan Hannable). Farrell acknowledged that the team’s decision-makers are cognizant of the limited time Price has to build his strength back up after being on the disabled list with an elbow injury since late July. Price threw off a mound today but was limited to just fastballs, per Farrell. “When he is able to get back to game speed or full speed and then see what the best role and the most realistic role is for him and how do we make sure we do what is right by David and not over stressing the number of pitches in an outing,” said the manager.
  • Phillies right-hander Jerad Eickhoff exited today’s start with a nerve issue in his right hand, writes MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. Manager Pete Mackanin suggested that the injury came “out of the blue,” as Eickhoff had not given any prior indication of discomfort. As Zolecki points out, though, Eickhoff’s average fastball velocity in 2015-16 was 91.5 mph, but he averaged just 89.4 mph in his first five August starts and only 88 mph on Wednesday.

Mets Injury Updates: Cespedes, Wright, Conforto, Harvey

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The Mets have announced injury updates on a variety of notable players, as covered by James Wagner of the New York Times (Twitter links).

Outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who recently hit the DL with a hamstring strain, is expected to require a six-week layoff and will therefore not make it back to the field this season. That’s not terribly surprising, as the veteran was said to have suffered a reasonably significant injury. He’ll surely focus on returning to health and finding a way to avoid further leg muscle problems in the 2018 season.

Meanwhile, the rehab assignment of third baseman David Wright has been halted after he again experienced shoulder pain. He’s set to be examined further tomorrow. The apparent setback makes it hard to imagine that Wright will be able to return to the majors this year. More broadly, it only continues to build upon the uncertainty about his future. New York owes the veteran $47MM over the next three seasons, though it can attempt to recoup 75% of his salary for any time during which he’s unable to play. But the Mets will also need to consider pursuing a replacement option at the hot corner for 2018 and beyond.

Perhaps the team’s most concerning open medical situation is that of young outfielder Michael Conforto, who had looked like a star before dislocating his shoulder and suffering a capsule tear in the joint. He has reportedly been weighing whether or not to undergo surgery, and is set for a second opinion on that decision. It’s not yet known what kind of outlook he faces, but the injury is plainly a serious one that will require plenty of care and a lengthy rehab process regardless of how it’s treated.

Finally, on the positive side, the Mets are set to welcome righty Matt Harvey back to the rotation on Friday. He has been out since the middle of June with shoulder problems that seemingly trace back to the thoracic outlet procedure he underwent last year. Beyond the health concerns, Harvey has struggled on the mound this year, with a 5.25 ERA over 70 1/3 innings. The Mets will surely hope that he can regain some positive momentum over the final month of the season.

NL Notes: Harvey, Fedde, Pirates

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Mets righty Matt Harvey is set to return from the disabled list Friday against the Astros, as Mike Puma of the New York Post notes. Harvey has been out since mid-June with a shoulder injury and hasn’t overwhelmed in his four rehab starts, but the Mets were enthused about his last outing, Puma writes. “When he threw in Double-A last time, the reports weren’t all that glowing,” says pitching coach Dan Warthen. “But [minor league pitching coordinator] Glenn Abbott was raving about this last one. Matt’s delivery was the same every pitch, and everything was coming out cleanly.” Harvey has seen most of his last two seasons derailed by injuries, but he’ll have a chance to salvage something from the 2017 season after pitching to a 5.25 ERA, 6.9 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 70 1/3 innings before hitting the DL. Here’s more from the National League.

  • Nationals righty Erick Fedde threw with less velocity than usual on Sunday, pitching in the 89-91 MPH range after previously throwing around 94, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes. Fedde says he’s “not too worried about” the loss in velocity and attributes it to the approaching end of the season. Fedde, though, is still just under 100 innings for the season between the minors and the Majors after throwing 121 last year. Janes does note that Fedde has lately demonstrated a better-rounded repertoire than he showed in Spring Training, with a slower curveball and changeup to go along with his fastball and slider.
  • The Pirates’ rotation hasn’t been overwhelming this season, but they have had good depth they largely haven’t needed, as Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. The Bucs have only used six starters, and one of those, Tyler Glasnow, has a 1.99 ERA with Triple-A Indianapolis and hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since early June. Steven Brault (1.94 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 52.2 GB%) has also fared well at Triple-A, with Drew Hutchison, Clay Holmes and Nick Kingham all also getting fairly good results. “It’s a good lesson in humility and patience,” says Brault. “You have to realize it’s not what you’re doing that’s wrong. Sometimes there’s just not a spot.” The Pirates control the rights to everyone in their current rotation for at least two more seasons beyond this one, so an offseason move or two could be a possibility, with Gerrit Cole perhaps being on the trading block. Kingham will be out of options next season, making his name one to watch as well. Of course, rotation depth charts have a way of changing quickly.
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