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Giants’ Chairman On Zaidi, Offseason Plans

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Giants chairman Greg Johnson recently spoke to reporters, including Ron Kroichick of the San Francisco Chronicle, regarding the contract status of president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi as well as the club’s plans heading into the home stretch of the offseason.

On Zaidi, Johnson revealed that the extension the club announced back in October that would keep Zaidi in San Francisco through the 2026 season has not yet been finalized. That’s something of a surprise, given Johnson said at the time of the announcement that the deal had been “agreed [upon] in principle” and would be formally announced in the near future. That, of course, didn’t come to pass, though Johnson nonetheless noted that the extension is a “done deal.”

“It’s effectively done,” Johnson said (as relayed by Kroichick). “He probably has signed it; I’m probably the one who hasn’t because I haven’t been around enough. But we’re done.”

The extension for Zaidi, whose current deal runs through the end of the 2024 campaign, came as something of a surprise given the club’s inconsistency during his tenure in San Francisco. The Giants posted losing seasons in his first two campaigns with the club before mustering a phenomenal 107-win 2021 season that propelled the club to its first NL West title since 2012. Since that strong showing, however, the club has been marred by middling performances. The club finished the 2022 season with a .500 record before slipping back underwater in 2023 with a 79-83 season that resulted in the club swapping out Gabe Kapler in favor of Bob Melvin in the manager’s chair.

Beyond the comments on Zaidi’s contract status, Johnson also spoke about the club’s ability to make further additions to the roster via free agency after spending on outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, catcher Tom Murphy and right-hander Jordan Hicks earlier this winter while also picking up southpaw Robbie Ray in a trade with the Mariners last month. Johnson was quick to emphasize that the club still has the capacity to continue improving the club via free agency, noting that “there are a lot of good players out there” who the club remains “very interested in.”

While Johnson didn’t specify any particular targets, previous reporting has indicated that the Giants view third baseman Matt Chapman as their top target on the positional market. Chapman, 31 in April, would substantially improve the club’s defense as a four-time Gold Glove award winner at third base who leads all big leaguers with +92 Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner since he first debuted back in 2017. Chapman would also provide the club a substantial boost in terms of power. While he veteran hit just 17 home runs last season, his .203 isolated slugging since the start of the 2020 season could nonetheless provide a dramatic boost to a Giants lineup that posted an anemic .149 ISO last year, good for just 23rd in the majors. Among all Giants with at least 100 plate appearances last season, only Wilmer Flores and Mike Yastrzemski posted an ISO of .200 or more.

By contrast, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle notes that comments from Zaidi in the wake of the Hicks signing last month indicated the club may not pursue further starting rotation additions. Johnson somewhat backed that notion up, with Shea quoting Johnson as having said that he thinks the club is “going to have to rely on some younger pitching” headed into the season with veterans Alex Cobb and Ray both expected to start the season on the shelf. Those signals from both the front office and ownership seemingly cast doubt on the likelihood of San Francisco making a splash at the top of the rotation market, where southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are the consensus best arms remaining.
If the Giants truly are unlikely to make a run at further rotation upgrades, it would be something of a surprise. After all, after trading away both Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling while watching Alex Wood and Sean Manaea depart via free agency, the Giants have seen their starting pitching depth take a major hit this winter. While both Cobb and Ray could provide reinforcements later in the season, the club currently figures to go with rookies Keaton Winn and Kyle Harrison, youngster Tristan Beck, and Hicks to round out the club’s rotation alongside Logan Webb.

Only Hicks debuted in the majors prior to the 2023 campaign among that quartet, and the righty has made just eight starts in the majors to this point in his career. Adding a reliable arm to the mix alongside Webb would give the club a significantly deeper and more stable rotation mix to open the season with while lessening the club’s need to rely on speedy returns from Cobb and Ray as they rehab from their respective surgeries. If the club doesn’t have the financial wherewithal to stomach a nine-figure commitment to Snell or Montgomery, a handful of decent mid-to-back of the rotation arms such as Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen also remain available.

Latest On Giants’ Offseason Targets

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The Giants’ offseason hasn’t necessarily been inactive, but it also hardly hasn’t played out as many fans would’ve expected when president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi kicked off the winter by stating a need to think differently, specifically with regard to the team’s roster construction.

The Giants made one big splash with their December signing of star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year deal, but the rest of their additions have been smaller scale in nature. Jordan Hicks, the hardest-throwing reliever on the market, was signed to a four-year deal. The Giants, despite having just one dependable source of innings (ace Logan Webb), plan to stretch the oft-injured Hicks out as a starter. Last year’s 65 2/3 innings were his most since a career-high 77 2/3 frames as a rookie in 2018. San Francisco also added backup catcher Tom Murphy on a two-year deal and acquired former AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray (who’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery) in a trade with the Mariners that dumped the contracts of Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani.

That’s a fair bit of activity, but the Giants are still teeming with questions about the composition of both the lineup and the rotation. It doesn’t appear they consider their offense to be a finished product, however. San Francisco made a “late run” at Rhys Hoskins before he signed with the Brewers, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle hears the same but cautions that their offer “wasn’t close” to the two-year, $34MM deal Hoskins inked in Milwaukee. That pact also contains an opt-out provision following the 2024 season.

While the Giants have given opt-out clauses perhaps more regularly than any other team in MLB in recent years — e.g. Haniger, Carlos Rodon, Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling — Slusser reports that the team is trying to move away from that contract mold. (Lee’s deal also contains an opt-out, though that comes after four years as opposed to the short-term nature of the others just listed.) Whether it was the lack of an opt-out or reluctance to match the years/dollars on the deal, Hoskins preferred the Brewers’ offer and will spend at least the 2024 season in Milwaukee.

The Giants may have missed on Hoskins — an all too familiar refrain for their fans — but mere interest in the longtime Phillies slugger shows that the Giants remain interested in the possibility of adding a bat to the lineup at either first base or designated hitter. The market still offers quite a few options at both positions. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco ran through some of the top unsigned first basemen earlier today (including old friend Brandon Belt), while DH types still on the market include Justin Turner, J.D. Martinez and Jorge Soler. Last year’s primary designated hitter, Joc Pederson, agreed to a one-year deal with the division-rival Diamondbacks just yesterday.

That said, Slusser also writes that third baseman Matt Chapman remains the Giants’ “top position-player target.” The 30-year-old, two-time Platinum Glove winner has ties to multiple Giants higher-ups; he was drafted by the Athletics when Zaidi was still an assistant GM in Oakland, and new Giants skipper Bob Melvin is obviously quite familiar with Chapman after managing him for the first five seasons of the third baseman’s career with the A’s. Zaidi has been focused on upgrading the team’s defense in addition to deepening his lineup, and Chapman could potentially check both boxes — particularly if he’s able to bounce back from the finger injury he sustained in the weight room in early August, which surely contributed to a disastrous finish at the plate (.183/.259/.318 over his final 139 plate appearances).

There’s still a fair bit of offseason left, but San Francisco’s options — particularly on the free agent market — have dwindled while quite a few needs remain unaddressed. The club hasn’t meaningfully upgraded its power production or added any stable innings behind Webb. The rotation behind the Cy Young runner-up is currently a hodgepodge of swingman Ross Stripling, top prospect Kyle Harrison, 26-year-old Keaton Winn (42 1/3 career innings) and the aforementioned Hicks, who’s made all of eight starts in his MLB career. Alex Cobb should be back in the first half, and Ray could return after the All-Star break, but the Giants have spent more than $165MM in free agency so far and the roster doesn’t look definitively better than it did in 2023 when they lost 83 games.

The Top Unsigned Third Basemen

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about three weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. MLBTR already took a look at the catchers, shortstops, center fielders and first basemen still available and will now take a look at some notable third basemen.

  • Matt Chapman: One of the best defensive third basemen in the league, Chapman leads the league in Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating since the start of 2017. In terms of Outs Above Average, he’s second, trailing only Nolan Arenado. Offensively, he’s strikeout prone but takes his walks and hits home runs. His 2023 season ended up a bit below his previous work, though that may have been caused by a late-season finger injury. His 17 home runs were his first time below 24 in a full season. Chapman’s .240/.330/.424 batting line and 110 wRC+ were a bit lower than his career pace, but through August 13, when he hurt his finger in a weight room incident, he had 15 homers and was sitting on a line of .255/.346/.449 with a 121 wRC+. A down year by his standards, he still produced 3.5 fWAR, his lowest in a full season. He’s had interest from plenty of clubs this offseason but remains unattached as Spring Training nears. Chapman turned down a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, thus tying him to draft pick compensation.
  • Gio Urshela: Going back to his 2019 breakout with the Yankees, Urshela has hit .291/.335/.452 for a wRC+ of 115. He’s generally considered a sure-handed defender, though the advanced metrics are split on his work at the hot corner. Urshela has been credited with 10 Defensive Runs Saved and a grade of 13.5 from Ultimate Zone Rating in his career work at third, but Outs Above Average gives him a dreary -18. He’s coming off a rough platform season, as he hit just two home runs in his 62 games with the Angels and walked in only 4.4% of his plate appearances. His .299/.329/.374 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 92. He then suffered a season-ending pelvic fracture in June. Despite that rough year, he’s the best shot at an everyday third baseman apart from Chapman. There should be a huge difference in terms of their earning potential, which could make Urshela attractive to those who won’t come close to Chapman’s asking price.
  • Justin Turner: He won’t be relied upon as an everyday option at the hot corner or any other position, but Turner can still hit and isn’t entirely limited to a designated hitter role just yet. With the Red Sox in 2023, he appeared in 41 games at first, 10 at second and seven at third base. The Dodgers gave him 66 starts at the hot corner in 2022 and 135 the year before that. He’s now 39 years old and his time in the field will likely keep dwindling, but the bat still plays. He hit 23 home runs last year and slashed .276/.345/.455 for a wRC+ of 114. A one-year deal seems likely.
  • Evan Longoria: One year younger than Turner, Longoria still managed to head out to third base in 41 contests in 2023, with solid metrics for his work out there. Unfortunately, his work at the plate wasn’t as strong. He had never struck out in more than 24% of his plate appearances in any season of his career until 2022, when that number jumped to 27.9% and then to 30.8% in the most recent campaign. His .223/.295/.422 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 92 last year. But just the year prior, he hit .244/.315/.451 for the Giants, leading to a 116 wRC+. He won’t be considered an everyday option, having not played 90 games in a season since 2019.
  • Josh Donaldson: Detractors might say Donaldson is washed, and there are 2023 stats they can point to, such as a .152 batting average. He also made multiple trips to the IL and only played 51 games on the year. But he hit 13 home runs in that limited action and drew walks at an 11.6% rate. His .115 batting average on balls in play wouldn’t be sustained over a longer stretch of playing time, particularly given his 92.1 mph average exit velocity and 51.3% hard-hit rate, so perhaps there’s still a potent bat in there if the baseball gods quit messing with him. His defensive grades at the hot corner have stayed strong, even as he’s now 38 years old. Donaldson said in November he’d like to play for one more year and go out on a high note rather than the down season through which he struggled in 2023. He should be available on an inexpensive one-year contract.

Honorable mentions: Brian Anderson, Eduardo Escobar, Mike Moustakas

MLBTR Poll: Matt Chapman’s Market

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Beyond Shohei Ohtani, the top of the free agent hitting market has been stagnant. Of the nine hitters in MLBTR’s Top 20 free agents, four (Ohtani, Jeimer Candelario, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jung Hoo Lee) have come off the board. Just over a third of the 20 offensive players to make our Top 50 have signed.

There hasn’t even been much chatter about interest in a few of the market’s top bats. That includes third baseman Matt Chapman, on whom there has been radio silence since a December 4 report the Cubs were keeping an eye on his market. Chicago is among a handful of teams tied to the four-time Gold Glover winner in any capacity. The Blue Jays have expressed interest in a reunion, while the Giants (now led by former A’s manager Bob Melvin) have been linked throughout the offseason.

That trio stands as the likeliest group of suitors. The Cubs have been tied to a number of free agent targets (Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Shota Imanaga among them) but have yet to add anyone from the open market. Chicago allowed Candelario to walk and has an underwhelming group of third base options: Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Christopher Morel and Miles Mastrobuoni.

Toronto has yet to significantly address the position since Chapman hit free agency. They brought in Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a two-year deal last week. He’s better suited as a utility player than a regular. Between Kiner-Falefa, Davis Schneider, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio and prospect Addison Barger, the Jays could mix and match at the hot corner. No one from that group stands as a clear roadblock to Chapman, though.

In J.D. Davis, the Giants have a better in-house third base option than either Chicago or Toronto do. Chapman isn’t a marked offensive upgrade over Davis, who just turned in another slightly above-average season and has a career .261/.343/.432 hitter. It’s a different story on the other side of the ball.

Davis has been a fringe to below-average defender throughout his career. Statcast’s Outs Above Average rated him favorably with the glove a season ago, but few would argue he’s all that close to Chapman defensively. Only the A’s allowed a higher batting average on ground-balls to the left side of the diamond than the Giants last year. While some of that is on the pitching staff and shortstops (primarily Brandon Crawford), signing Chapman would address that deficiency.

There are a few teams that arguably should be involved on Chapman, although none are without caveats. The Mets have kicked the tires on a few external options at third base — namely Justin Turner and Gio Urshela — after Ronny Mauricio went down with an ACL tear. Still, they don’t seem keen on a top-of-the-market splash as they envision Mauricio and/or Brett Baty as a long-term answer. While the Angels didn’t get much production out of third base, it’s hard to envision another pricey splash with Anthony Rendon due $38MM annually for the next three years. The Phillies appear content with Alec Bohm, while the Tigers have infield prospects Colt Keith and Jace Jung on the horizon.

The Yankees and Mariners have some questions at third base, but a run at Chapman wouldn’t align with their offseason trajectories. New York has tried to move away from their reliance on right-handed hitters with elevated strikeout rates; they’ve also declared DJ LeMahieu the expected starter. Seattle generally shies away from significant free agent contracts for hitters and is prioritizing high-contact bats this offseason.

How will that seemingly limited group of strong fits affect Chapman’s market? At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a six-year, $150MM pact as he enters his age-31 season. Players like Trevor Story, Dansby Swanson and Javier Báez who broadly fit Chapman’s profile — plus or better infield defenders with power but strikeout questions — have landed in that range in recent winters, although that group all had the advantage of playing shortstop.

Where will Chapman wind up and for how much money?

 

 

Cubs Reportedly Interested In Matt Chapman

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Much of the rumor mill this offseason regarding the Cubs has been tied to the top two positional free agents on the market- two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani and center fielder Cody Bellinger, the latter of whom re-established himself as a star-level player this season after signing with Chicago on a one-year deal last offseason. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the club’s interest in top of the positional free agent market extends beyond those two names, as Chicago is “looking at” third baseman Matt Chapman. Heyman goes on to note that the Cubs are waiting on a decision from Ohtani before engaging with Bellinger and Chapman more substantially.

That the Cubs would have interest in Chapman’s services is hardly a surprise. While the club has a strong middle infield duo of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner providing solid offense paired with elite defense, the club’s production at the corner infield spots was far less impressive in 2023. The club’s 103 wRC+ at first base, which is somewhat inflated by the 59 appearances Bellinger made at the position, ranked just 17th in the majors. The hot corner was even more dire, as Chicago’s mix of third basemen including Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Miles Mastrobuoni combined for a wRC+ of just 92 with just 1.8 fWAR. The latter figure was the eleventh-worst production from third base among all major league clubs last season, despite a late-season boost from deadline addition Jeimer Candelario.

Meanwhile, Chapman is among the league’s premiere third basemen. Only Austin Riley, Jose Ramirez, Gunnar Henderson, and Isaac Paredes posted more fWAR than Chapman’s 3.5 last season among regulars at the hot corner, while only ten third baseman posted a wRC+ better than Chapman’s figure of 110. In addition to improving Chicago’s dismal production at third base, Chapman would provide the club with a much-needed boost in power. While the Cubs’ offense scored the sixth-most runs in the majors last year, they ranked 12th in the majors with a collective wRC+ of just 104 thanks in large part to middling power production, as evidenced by their roughly average ISO (.167) and home run total (196).

That’s not to say Chapman comes without red flags, of course. While the 30-year-old has long been a reliable source of 25-to-30 home runs per season, he suffered something of a power outage in 2023 with just 17 home runs in 581 plate appearances. While his underlying metrics (including a 17.1% barrel rate and a career-best 56.1% Hard-Hit rate) suggest that lack of power production may not have been deserved, it’s still a somewhat worrying sign for a slugger on the wrong side of 30 who regularly posts strikeout rates that approach 30%. Despite those concerns, MLBTR projected Chapman for a six-year, $150MM deal this offseason while ranking him as the winter’s third-best positional free agent and seventh overall on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. Much of that value comes from the slugger’s glove.

Though he hasn’t posted the elite OAA numbers in recent years that he did earlier in his career, Chapman is still on the shortlist of best defensive third baseman in the game; his +5 OAA in 2023 ranked in the 87th percentile, while his +12 DRS leaves him as the 12th most valuable infielder with the glove in baseball last year. Even if his offense is closer to the 110 wRC+ range than his career mark of 118 or the 130 wRC+ he posted during his peak years of 2018-20, pairing Chapman with Swanson and Hoerner on the infield dirt would put the Cubs in the conversation for the best infield defense in the sport.

Just as the Cubs are looking into other options besides Chapman as they look to add an impact bat in free agency, so too does Chapman have other suitors beyond Chicago. Both the Giants and the incumbent Blue Jays have also been connected to the infield so far this offseason, with Toronto having reportedly offered Chapman an extension north of $100MM in the four-to-five year range before he even hit the open market. An interesting wrinkle in the Chapman sweepstakes is that each of the aforementioned teams he’s been connected to so far this winter are also rumored to be among the remaining suitors for Ohtani.

Though it’s at least feasible that a club could look to sign Chapman this winter even after landing Ohtani, it’s impossible to predict what sort of payroll space any team would have remaining after committing $500MM or more to the offseason’s top free agent. Given that uncertainty and the position of Chapman’s publicly-known suitors as potential players in the Ohtani sweepstakes, it would be a surprise if a signing was imminent for the offseason’s top infielder.

Blue Jays Notes: Bichette, Guerrero, Chapman, Nola

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Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has come up in some trade rumors this offseason but it doesn’t appear there’s much momentum towards a deal there. Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet addressed the possibility in columns today, both downplaying the likelihood of the Jays choosing this path.

Nicholson-Smith says he spoke with executives with teams other than the Jays, who gave him the impression the Jays are planning to hold. Rosenthal says the Jays are indeed getting calls from other clubs about Bichette and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but that doesn’t mean they are motivated to move either.

This is all fairly understandable under the conditions of this winter’s market. It’s generally agreed that the crop of free agent hitters is on the weak side, which would naturally lead clubs to find upgrades on the trading block. But the Jays are also looking to upgrade their own position player group, having to replace free agents Matt Chapman, Whit Merrifield, Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier. Subtracting Bichette and/or Guerrero would only make that task harder and it’s hard to imagine a trade that would make sense for both sides.

Each of Bichette and Guerrero are two years away from free agency, so any club looking to acquire them would naturally be in win-now mode. But the Jays are in a competitive window as well, meaning MLB-ready talent would have to be coming back in exchange, and it would be difficult to send something to the Jays that makes the club better than Bichette does. The shortstop has produced 13.5 wins above replacement over the past three years, per FanGraphs, which puts him in the top 25 of all position players in the league. Guerrero’s past two seasons weren’t as strong as his 2021 campaign but he was still good for roughly 30 homers with a low strikeout rate. With the Jays actively pursuing Shohei Ohtani, parting ways with a star player like Bichette or Guerrero wouldn’t help their pitch.

In terms of Toronto’s pursuits, it’s been reported that the Jays are interested in a Chapman reunion and that still appears to be the case. Both Nicholson-Smith and Keegan Matheson of MLB.com indicate that the dialogue is still open between the Jays and Chapman but it doesn’t appear there’s anything close to getting done. Chapman reportedly turned down an extension offer of four or five years while still with the club.

Another option the Jays considered was right-hander Aaron Nola, with Nicholson-Smith reporting that the club “showed early interest” in the righty before he re-signed with the Phillies. Though the lineup seems to the priority for the Jays, it seems there’s at least some openness to a rotation addition, with the Jays having also been connected to Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

The rotation already has Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi in four spots, with Alek Manoah, Bowden Francis, Mitch White and prospect Ricky Tiedemann options for the back end. Adding Nola or Yamamoto in there would likely lead to someone becoming available in trade, with Jays reportedly open to moving Manoah.

Overall, it’s been a quiet offseason for the Jays thus far, with the team having only made perfunctory transactions in the past few weeks. It’s entirely possible that all their upcoming moves will hinge on their pursuit of Ohtani, as the club is seen as one of a handful of legitimate contenders for the two-way superstar. Though they have some openness to reuniting with Chapman, pursuing Yamamoto or perhaps going after Cody Bellinger, all of those options may be on the backburner until the Ohtani situation has some clarity. Since Ohtani is widely expected to require a record-breaking deal of $500MM or more, it stands to reason that the club would want to figure out their chances there before committing to other options that will also require significant funds.

Giants Interested In Matt Chapman

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The Giants are interested in free agent Matt Chapman, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though he adds that the Blue Jays “are making a big push to keep” the third baseman.

Chapman, 31 in April, has been a speculative fit for the Giants this offseason for a few reasons. For one thing, the club’s new manager Bob Melvin was the skipper in Oakland while Chapman was there. Beyond that, it’s widely believed that the Giants are planning to add a star player or two this winter after just missing on Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa a year ago.

The Giants have also had some question marks around their defense in recent years, which happens to be Chapman’s specialty. After winning 107 games in 2021, the club fell to .500 in 2022, with glovework seeming to play a role in that. The club was collectively graded as being worth -53 Defensive Runs Saved that year, the worst mark in the majors, while their tally of -33 Outs Above Average was third worst. In 2023, they got the OAA into the top 10 but their DRS was still in the bottom third, which perhaps helped contribute to another underwhelming season.

Chapman has been one of the best defensive third basemen in the league during his career, having current counts of 92 DRS and 53 OAA since his 2017 debut. The former number is tops in the majors during that time frame while the latter number is second only to Nolan Arenado.

His bat has been a bit less consistent, particularly in 2023. He finished the season with a batting line of .240/.330/.424 and a wRC+ of 110, though in fairly uneven fashion, having high highs and low lows throughout the year. Some have framed his year as a scorching hot April followed by five tepid months, but Chapman was also quite strong in July, hitting .247/.402/.506 that month for a wRC+ of 154.

On August 13, when Chapman hurt his finger in a weight room incident, he was slashing .255/.346/.449 on the year for a wRC+ of 121, which was fairly in line with his 118 wRC+ from the year before. He tried playing through the finger issue, even going on the injured list for a time, but hit just .163/.250/.302 the rest of the way, diminishing his full season production.

Blaming the injury might be a charitable way to look at things but it stands to reason that the club that signs Chapman is probably going to be one that looks on him favorably and is more willing to overlook the final weeks of the 2023 campaign. His 28.4% strikeout rate for the year gives some pause but optimists can look to his 10.7% walk rate and bloody Statcast metrics. MLBTR predicted Chapman to get a contract of six years and $150MM.

The Giants used J.D. Davis as their primary third baseman in 2023 and he can be retained for one more season via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $6.8MM in 2024. He had a fine season, hitting 18 home runs and slashing .248/.325/.413 for a wRC+ of 104. Hitting has always been his forte, with his defense more questionable. DRS continued to frown on him in 2023, giving him a grade of -11 for the year, pushing his career mark to -38. OAA gave him a +5 on the year but his career tally is still just -7.

Davis is a perfectly serviceable player at the hot corner but Chapman would clearly be an upgrade. If the Giants were able to get a deal done with Chapman, Davis would still have a bit of trade value given his modest salary, perhaps allowing the Giants to put him on the market and bolster their roster elsewhere.

Fitting Chapman onto the Jays’ roster is perhaps an easier fit, since he could just slot back into his old spot. The Jays are known to be looking for multiple position players in order to upgrade their lineup this winter, which could include a Chapman reunion. The club already offered him an extension at some point, though Chapman turned it down. But they are also looking into Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and others. Candelario, in particular, would likely be a backup plan for the event that they don’t retain Chapman. Candelario is also a third baseman but doesn’t have the same track record as Chapman, thus leading to a lesser contract projection of four years and $70MM.

As mentioned, the Giants are clearly looking for a significant upgrade this winter, having been connected to big names like Ohtani, Bellinger, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and others. Chapman is on the list as well but they figure to be competing with the Jays and other clubs for many of the same targets.

Both clubs seem to have some powder dry for such pursuits. Roster Resource currently pegs the Giants’ payroll at $147MM next year. They have been in the $200MM range in the past, giving them plenty of room to work with. If their desire for star player additions this winter is as strong as suspected, perhaps they are willing to push that and therefore have even more room. The Jays are at $205MM for next year, per RR, but with a larger arbitration class and a few non-tenders could give them some more breathing space. Their competitive balance tax calculation is currently estimated at $216MM, with next year’s base threshold at $237MM. The Jays were willing to pay the tax last year club president/CEO Mark Shapiro has suggested the payroll situation should be in roughly similar range to 2023.

Seven Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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All seven players who received a $20.325MM qualifying offer this year have rejected it, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deadline for a decision is today at 3 pm Central but it seems all of Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Josh Hader, Aaron Nola and Blake Snell have already made up their minds.

There wasn’t much drama with any of these decisions, as all seven were considered locks to reject and still collect sizeable free agent contracts. On MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents, six of the seven player were predicted to get a nine-figure deal in the coming months. The only exception was Gray, who was limited by his 34 years of age to a prediction of $90MM over four years. The players had one week to gauge the market after receiving those QOs and it doesn’t seem any of them got any sense that accepting the one-year deal was a wise course of action.

There would have been more drama if some borderline candidates had been issued QOs, but it was a fairly conservative group this winter. Last year, 12 players received QOs and Martín Pérez and Joc Pederson eventually accepted. But none of this year’s on-the-cusp players got the offer, with each of Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Rhys Hoskins, Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier heading into free agency unencumbered.

Each of the players who received and rejected the QO will now net their former club draft pick compensation in the event they sign elsewhere this winter. The value of that compensation will depend upon whether the club received revenue sharing or paid the competitive balance tax in 2023. The signing club would also be subject to draft pick forfeiture and perhaps a reduction of international bonus pool space, with the penalty also dependant on revenue sharing and CBT status.

Matt Chapman Turned Down Prior Extension Offer From Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays made an attempt at extending Matt Chapman before he reached free agency, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reports, but Chapman rejected Toronto’s offer.  It isn’t known exactly when the Jays made the offer or how much was on the table, though Mitchell indicates that Chapman passed on more than $100MM over the span of a four- or five-year contract.

This is notably less than the six-year, $150MM deal that MLB Trade Rumors is predicting for Chapman, who ranked seventh on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.  With Shohei Ohtani as a DH-only player, Cody Bellinger (ranked #2) and Chapman are the only true position players ranked within the top 11 on MLBTR’s list, amidst a free agent class that is heavy on pitching.

The relative lack of position-player depth on the market is to Chapman’s benefit after something of a shaky season.  Chapman generated 3.5 fWAR largely on the strength another outstanding defensive performance, as Chapman earned the fourth Gold Glove of his career.  His .240/.330/.424 slash line and 17 homers over 581 plate appearances resulted in an above-average 110 wRC+, though Chapman struggled badly at the plate after winning AL Player Of The Month honors in April, and a finger injury later in the season contributed in part to those struggles.

However, Chapman’s hard-contact numbers were among the best of any player in baseball.  This has been a trend throughout much of Chapman’s career, and 2023 also continued his track record of above-average walk rates and a lot of strikeouts.  Since Chapman was on a hot streak at the plate in July and early August, agent Scott Boras will surely point to the finger injury as the major culprit for the offensive downturn, arguing that a healthy Chapman will post better numbers going forward….and thus be worthy of a heftier contract.

It is relatively rare to see top-tier free agents like Chapman accept extension offers so close to free agency, and very rare to see a Boras client pass up a chance at testing the open market.  Mitchell feels that the Blue Jays might still be candidates to re-sign Chapman, but perhaps only in a situation where Chapman circles back if he can’t find a larger deal, rather than a case of the Jays increasing their offer.

Since Chapman will almost surely reject the one-year, $20.325MM qualifying offer before today’s deadline, the Blue Jays stand to recoup an extra draft pick if Chapman signs elsewhere.  This compensatory pick would fall between the fourth and fifth rounds of the 2024 draft, since Toronto surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2023.  The Jays are looking for multiple position players whether or not Chapman returns, though obviously retaining the third baseman would address one major hole in the lineup.

MLBTR Podcast: Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco)

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This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…

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