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Cardinals Notes: Molina, Southpaws, Carpenter

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The latest out of the Cardinals’ camp…

  • Yadier Molina intends to finish his career as a Cardinal, though the longtime catcher won’t insist on a starting role throughout the life of a potential new contract with St. Louis.  According to The Athletic’s Mark Saxon (subscription required), Molina “has informed club officials he would be willing to take a reduced role in the second season of an extension.”  This would represent the 2022 campaign, as Molina is entering the final year of his current contract.  Given that Molina will be 39 years old on Opening Day 2022, moving into a part-time or backup role at that late stage of his career isn’t really a surprise, aside from the fact that Molina has always been such a workhorse behind the plate.  Molina has the seventh-most games played (1947) as a catcher in baseball history, and with three more seasons, could potentially pass Carlton Fisk (2226) for second on the all-time list.  Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera are the two top young catchers in the Cards’ farm system, with Saxon noting that Knizner (who has already cracked the big leagues and would be 27 on Opening Day 2022) could still potentially become a trade chip if St. Louis feels Herrera is the better bet as Molina’s heir apparent.
  • The Cardinals have been working to add more left-handed pitching to their roster, with GM Michael Girsch telling the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold that “when we had the opportunity to make transactions, we sided slightly to the left if we could.”  Some of the southpaws acquired in big and small moves over the last two years include Andrew Miller, Kwang-Hyun Kim, Genesis Cabrera, Tyler Webb, Matthew Liberatore, Rob Kaminsky, and Ricardo Sanchez, and several of those names are in the mix to play bigger roles for the Cards in 2020.  Beyond the need for greater balance between lefty and righty pitching, there is also a specific strategic element at play, given all of the big left-handed bats in the NL Central.
  • Matt Carpenter missed Wednesday’s Spring Training game with what he described as a “super minor” back injury, MLB.com’s Anne Rogers writes.  The back tightness wouldn’t have prevented Carpenter from playing in a regular season game, though perhaps even the fact that he reported the issue is indicative of how Carpenter is approaching his health and conditioning as he tries to rebound from a rough 2019 season.  “Today would’ve been a great example of not saying anything, going out and played, and something happening….I think that is going to be big for me going forward, just being open to not push through stuff that can set me back for a month, and just say, ‘Hey, today I don’t feel as good,’ and it’s two days instead of two months,” Carpenter said.

Latest On Cardinals Outfield Situation

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Harrison Bader has claimed the Cardinals centerfield job, per Derrick Goold, Benjamin Hochman, Rick Hummel and Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. If manager Mike Shildt decides to go with the dibs system this spring, Bader will be in excellent shape. Otherwise, he’s going to have to hit to stay the everyday man in center.

President of Baseball Ops John Mozeliak specifically mentioned a desire to see Bader become an “all-fields hitter,” while acknowledging that his offensive floor to remain a starter is lower than most in the game because of his elite defensive abilities. The .650 OPS he finished with in 2019 isn’t going to cut it – thought it’s worth noting that even with the .205/.314/.366 batting line, Bader put together a 2.0 bWAR season in 128 games. 

The final note on Bader is that while the Cardinals have a handful of outfield options, none are suited specifically for center quite like him. That said, prospect Dylan Carlson, whom the Cardinals view as part of the 2020 picture, has spent a decent 43 percent of his minor league starts in center. The 21-year-old Carlson tore through the upper levels of the minors last year, hitting .292/.372/.542 across Double-A and Triple-A as a 20-year-old. Also mentioned, Lane Thomas – acquired in 2017 from the Blue Jays for international spending money – as a possibility for at-bats in center should Bader continue to struggle with the outside breaking ball.

Thomas, 24, played a total of 68 innings in center for the Cardinals in 2019, tearing it up in 44 plate appearances with a .316/.409/.684 small sample burst. In Fangraphs’ January prospect update, Thomas landed as the #8 ranked prospect in the Cardinals system, while Carlson came in at #2, behind only Nolan Gorman. 

Along with Bader, Thomas, and Carlson, Tommy Edman looks like a fan favorite in the making, and he figures to get most of his playing time in the outfield while the Cardinals wait to see if Matt Carpenter bounces back. Even if Carpenter moves full time to the bench at some point, veteran Dexter Fowler enjoyed a bounce back season (of sorts) in 2019, tellingly appearing in 150 games as a clearly trusted veteran.

Read between the lines and it’s hard see how a reunion with Marcell Ozuna makes sense. That said, the Cardinals seem to be at least considering it. Speculatively speaking, the ongoing engagement could signal a willingness on Ozuna’s part to settle for a short-term pact.

Despite the outfielder’s interest in returning, the article notes that Mozeliak declined to answer when asked whether he has remained in touch with the 29-year-old. The Cardinals have enough coverage in the outfield to let Ozuna walk and feel okay about their depth. Besides the five potential outfielders mentioned above (Bader, Thomas, Carlson, Edman, Fowler), the Cardinals can also call on Rangel Ravelo, Tyler O’Neill, Justin Williams, or the recently acquired Austin Dean for outfield at-bats. If there’s a potential weakness in the Cardinals outfield, it’s depth in centerfield, where Ozuna does not help anyhow. Even there, depth is hardly a weakness. Bader and Carlson have immense potential while Fowler provides a veteran floor (though he’s more of a week-by-week stopgap at this point of his career).

Furthermore, payroll estimators peg the Cardinals opening day payroll somewhere between $162MM and $167MM. The low end of that spectrum would match last year’s opening day payroll, which was a franchise all-time high. That doesn’t paint a welcoming environment for a new Ozuna contract. Nor does it, before you ask, make the acquisition of Nolan Arenado’s $26MM contract seem at that likely. That said, if there’s any takeaway from the 500-or-so words above, it’s that Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch have an eye for contrivance in roster building.

Cardinals’ Talks For Arenado “Haven’t Gone Anywhere”

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1:30pm: ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that while the Rockies and Cardinals have indeed exchanged some names, their talks on Arenado “haven’t gone anywhere” and the exchange of names “hasn’t been productive.”

11:29am: The Rockies and Cardinals “have begun exchanging names” of players of interest as they attempt to structure a potential deal that would send third baseman Nolan Arenado to St. Louis, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports. The Colorado organization is said to want both MLB and minor-league players to move their franchise cornerstone.

It’s a bit difficult to know what to make of this latest update. On the one had, it’s presented as a step forward. Morosi reported over the weekend that the sides had struck up “preliminary trade negotiations.” He now states that the chatter has “advanced beyond a preliminary stage.”

On the other, it seems hard to imagine that the sides had really been engaged in dialogue of much substance if no names of players other than Arenado even came up. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently explained, the Cards have had “longstanding interest” in Arenado but have “found the Rockies’ asking price prohibitive.” So, it would appear the sides are only now returning to a level of discussion at which they’ve previously engaged without seeing eye to eye.

The real question here remains how motivated the Rockies are about taking advantage of the opportunity to move Arenado’s contract and get something in return. If so, then perhaps it is indeed notable that they are back to swapping possible names with the Cards. It’s obviously not the Rockies’ preference to move their biggest star, but there’s huge risk in holding pat given the roster’s 2019 backslide and a slate of contractual commitments that is straining the payroll that the organization has established.

Morosi does go on to name a few names, though again it is not clear how the information is best interpreted. The Rox have both interest and some misgivings in Dakota Hudson, says Morosi, who echoes Goold’s characterization of the Cards being utterly unwilling to discuss Jack Flaherty. In addition to contemplating Hudson, who certainly has his warts but also has thrown over 200 MLB innings of 3.25 ERA ball and won’t turn 26 until September, the Rox are said to be eyeing up the Cards’ top prospects as well.

This is where the skepticism really enters the picture, because that’s quite a haul of talent. Arenado is obviously well worth it from an on-field perspective, but his contract — which, as already written to death, gives him huge downside protection ($234MM guaranteed) with the upside of opting out after 2021 — is less than a straightforward asset to price. It would be a bit odd to see the Cardinals part with that kind of surplus value for the right to take over such a deal, particularly since the team wasn’t notably connected to free agent Anthony Rendon.

Morosi’s report takes a curious turn when he gets to Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter. While the highly compensated veteran is said to be under consideration in talks, Morosi writes that “the Rockies don’t appear to be mandating his inclusion.” That’s a befuddling way to characterize a 34-year-old player who just wrapped up a subpar season and is owed a hefty $39MM over the next two years (including a buyout on an option). Clearly, the Rox would rather not have that contract; Carpenter would be included to help offset the Arenado obligations.

Once more, it’s tough to know what to make of that curious bit. There’s no chance the Rockies are clamoring for Carpenter, but it’s equally true that the club wouldn’t want the deal to seem publicly like a salary dump. So, perhaps this strained characterization constitutes evidence that the Colorado organization is preparing to sell an all-but-assuredly unpopular trade to a skeptical fan base. Or maybe that’s just reading into things.

Two things seem safe to say at this point: First, that there are reasonably serious discussions involving Arenado, with the Cardinals at least one of the teams engaged with the Rockies. (The Rangers and perhaps others are also seemingly still at least kicking around the periphery.) And second, that there remain a number of significant obstacles that must still be cleared to move an Arenado trade scenario from the realm of hypothetical plausibility to one approaching actualization.

Cardinals Looking For Outfielders, Prefer Lefty Bats

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The Cardinals weren’t one of the league’s better-hitting teams in general last season, and in particular struggled against right-handed pitching.  For that reason, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold) that “if we could find a way to get a little more lefthanded, we would be encouraged to do that.  So, I think people feel that they’re a little too lefthanded [in their lineup] then it might make sense for us to be talking.”  Mozeliak hinted that the Cards would prefer to add a lefty bat in a trade rather than through the free agent market, though trade talks have been “slow” to date.

To this end, Goold reports that the Cardinals have been looking to add a left-handed hitting outfielder in exchange for a package that would include at least one of their young right-handed hitting outfielders.  Looking at such players on the Cards’ 40-man roster, Harrison Bader, Jose Martinez, Yairo Munoz, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia, and Rangel Ravelo are all either full-time outfielders or at least have some outfield experience, leaving St. Louis with a wealth of possible trade chips for trades large or small.

By contrast, the Rangers are a team with a surplus of left-handed outfielders, and Goold reports that Texas and St. Louis have indeed been in talks.  The Cards’ ideal acquisition would be both relatively inexpensive and capable of playing every day.  The latter issue could keep the Cardinals from pursuing someone like the Dodgers’ Joc Pederson, in Goold’s view, given Pederson’s struggles at hitting lefty pitching (though I would submit that the Cards would certainly seem to have enough right-handed hitting depth to find a platoon partner for Pederson in center field).

Of course, the Cardinals would get an immediate boost against right-handed pitching if their most prominent left-handed hitter returned to his old form after a disastrous 2019 season.  Mozeliak revealed that Matt Carpenter has begun an offseason training program to add both weight and strength, after tests from the performance department revealed that Carpenter declined in both areas over the course of the season.  “He’s one of those types of players that has a hard time holding weight,” Mozeliak said.  “One of the things that we’ve tried to do this offseason is find a strength program that we think could work for him so he can maintain that.  As the season unfolds, it’s something that we’ll need to be conscious of and intentional about to try to keep that up.”

In addition to their search for lefty bats, the Cardinals are still interested in a very prominent right-handed bat in Marcell Ozuna.  Mozeliak felt his club was “still in the game,” for the free agent slugger, saying “we’re not closing any doors.  Doors may get closed, but it’s not our doing.”  The Reds, Braves, Rangers, Diamondbacks, and White Sox have all been mentioned as interested parties in the Ozuna market, and with reports indicating that the bidding could go as high as five years, it seems hard to imagine St. Louis is willing to truly break the bank to re-sign Ozuna.  Since Ozuna rejected the qualifying offer, the Cardinals will obtain an extra pick (roughly between the 75th-85th overall selections) in the 2020 draft should Ozuna sign elsewhere.

NL Notes: Carpenter, Giants, Mets

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A quick look around the National League…

  • The 2019 season was surprisingly pedestrian for Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter, a normally excellent producer who fell flat after the team signed him to a two-year, $39MM extension in April. Carpenter stepped to the plate 492 times and hit a mediocre .226/.334/.392 with 15 home runs, giving him the lowest wRC+ (95) and fWAR (1.2) he has posted over a full season since debuting in 2011. But Carpenter, who will turn 34 later this month, seemingly hasn’t lost the confidence of Cardinals brass. ”‘Carp’ obviously will have a better season, we expect. He’s highly motivated,” chairman Bill DeWitt said this week (via Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). President of baseball operations John Mozeliak echoed that sentiment, saying the Cardinals’ confidence in Carpenter is “high” and calling this year “an outlier.” Of course, the Cardinals don’t have much choice but to publicly show faith in Carpenter, whom they’re likely stuck with because of the money left on his contract and his no-trade clause.
  • As of last week, Royals quality control coach Pedro Grifol was reportedly one of the finalists to become the Giants’ next manager. That no longer seems to be the case, though. Grifol is now completely out of the race, according to the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea, who names ex-Phillies manager Gabe Kapler, current Astros bench coach Joe Espada and Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro as the last candidates standing. Grifol, Kapler, Espada and Quartaro make up four of 10-plus candidates who have interviewed with the Giants, per Shea. There’s no deadline to hire a new skipper, however, and with the Giants one of just two teams without a manager, there’s seemingly no reason to rush.
  • The Mets negotiated with relievers Daniel Hudson and Jake Diekman when they were free agents a year ago, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports. The club ultimately didn’t land either, instead watching Hudson sign with the Angels on a minor league contract and Diekman land with the Royals for a guaranteed $2.75MM. Hudson then wound up with the Blue Jays and finished the season as a member of the Nationals, with whom he emerged as one of many key cogs during their improbable World Series run. Diekman concluded the campaign with the Athletics, who traded for him in July. Now that Hudson and Diekman are back on the open market, the Mets  – who remain in need of competent relievers – could again push for one or both, though there’s no indication they plan on doing so.

Cardinals DFA Mike Mayers

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The Cardinals have designated right-hander Mike Mayers for assignment, tweets Mark Saxon of the Athletic. The club has since announced the move. Additionally, infielder Matt Carpenter has been activated from the 10-day injured list, pitching prospect Ryan Helsley has been recalled, while corner infielder Rangel Ravelo was optioned to Triple-A Memphis.

Mayers, 27, was out of options, so St. Louis had to keep him on the 25-man roster or cut bait. Ultimately, Mayers’ continued big league struggles did him in. He’s logged 13.2 innings in 12 appearances since coming off the 60-day injured list over a month ago, but his numbers were ghastly. Mayers coughed up 11 runs in that time, including two longballs, with matching strikeout and walk totals (10 apiece). That continued a rough MLB go for Mayers, who has a 7.17 ERA in 69 career games.

Mayers has some interesting raw material to work with, though. Per Statcast, his fastball and curveball each have above-average spin, and he’s generally performed well in Triple-A. A contender like St. Louis could no longer afford to keep giving MLB opportunities to an underperforming arm, but perhaps another organization with a less urgent competitive cycle will give a crack at straightening Mayers out. Any claiming team would have to keep Mayers on the 25-man roster or again expose him to waivers.

Carpenter returns from a three-week stint on the shelf with a right foot contusion. His underwhelming .215/.321/.373 line has been a surprising sore spot for an offense that looks stronger on paper than it has played to this point.

With Carpenter back and Mayers gone, the club swaps out the rookie position player (Ravelo) for a rookie arm (Helsley). Helsely’s mid-90’s fastball will return to the bullpen, while Ravelo will look to continue to build on a strong Triple-A body of work.

Injury Notes: Carpenter, Contreras, Simmons

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As our thoughts remain with those affected by the events in El Paso tonight, a few collected injury notes from around the game of baseball…

  • It’s been a season to forget for Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter, who, before being placed on the IL with a foot contusion on July 16th, was scuffling to the worst batting line of his accomplished career. Good news tonight, though, from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who reports that Carpenter will rejoin his teammates on Saturday night in advance of a possible Sunday activation. Carpenter has some work to do in the season’s remaining months if he wants to end up with a more characteristic batting line–his .215/.321/.372 slash and 86 wRC+ are a far cry from the production Cardinal nation has become accustomed to over the years (129 career wRC+).
  • As Jordan Bastian of MLB.com points out, the Cubs might have erred in trading defensive backstop extraordinaire Martin Maldonado in a deadline deal–with the hamstring injury endured by starter Willson Contreras on Saturday, Chicago’s catching depth is likely about to be tested. Contreras grabbed his right leg while running out a fly ball in the seventh inning, but manager Joe Maddon was unwilling to place a firm prognosis on the injury. “I really don’t know at this point,” said the manager. “We’ll just wait and see how it plays out.” While Contreras is scheduled for an MRI on Monday, the club will look to Victor Caratini to man the dish in his absence. The call-up of Triple-A Iowa’s Taylor Davis is a definite possibility in the event of an eventual injured list placement.
  • Early in the day, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reported that Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons was a scratch from Saturday’s game due to “left foot soreness”. Fletcher later relayed that Simmons injured his foot in the batting cage before Saturday’s loss to the Indians and that an MRI was set to follow. Any extended loss of the defensively stingy Simmons would obviously be a blow to the beleaguered Los Angeles club, who turned to David Fletcher to man short in today’s action. Simmons had been hitting .274/.315/.382 on the year while turning in typically strong defensive marks.

Cardinals Place Matt Carpenter On Injured List

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The Cardinals placed third baseman Matt Carpenter on the injured list with a right foot contusion on Tuesday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com was among those to report. It’s unclear how much time Carpenter will sit out, but for now, infielder Edmundo Sosa is up from Triple-A Memphis to take his roster spot.

Carpenter’s injury continues a surprisingly dreadful season for the accomplished 33-year-old, who just returned right after the All-Star break from a back strain that forced him to the shelf in late June. When Carpenter has been healthy enough to take the field in 2019, he has slashed an unappealing .215/.321/.372 (86 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 343 plate appearances. That’s a marked drop-off from the production the Cardinals have become accustomed to receiving from Carpenter, a .275/.377/.471 hitter with a 133 wRC+ in 4,298 trips to the plate from 2012-18.

With Carpenter having missed a fair amount of time of late, the Cardinals have gotten somewhat used to deploying Tommy Edman and Yairo Munoz at the hot corner. Those two will man the position again during Carpenter’s latest IL stay, according to Rogers. Neither player has performed much better (if at all) than Carpenter on a per-PA basis, though, and Edman and Munoz have combined for a measly four walks in 161 trips to the plate. They’ll need to do better than that going forward for St. Louis, which entered Tuesday tied for the National League’s second wild-card spot and a manageable two back of the first-place Cubs in the NL Central.

Cardinals Place Yadier Molina On 10-Day IL; Activate Matt Carpenter

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5:22pm: Molina will likely miss around three weeks and surgery won’t be required, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other media.

4:14pm: The Cardinals have announced (Twitter links) a series of roster moves in advance of their second-half opener on Friday.  Catcher Yadier Molina is heading to the 10-day injured list due to a right thumb tendon strain, with an IL placement retroactive to July 8.  Coming back from the IL is infielder Matt Carpenter, who has been out of action since June 29 with a lower back sprain.  The Cards also sent Rangel Ravelo and southpaw Tyler Webb to Triple-A and moved Jordan Hicks to the 60-day IL, while calling up catcher Andrew Knizner and selecting the contract of left-hander Chasen Shreve from Triple-A.

This is the second time this season that Molina has missed time due to his troublesome right thumb, as the same injury also put the longtime St. Louis backstop on the IL from May 31 to June 11.  It’s fair to assume that the nagging nature of Molina’s thumb problem is at least partially responsible for his lack of production this season, though Molina was also struggling prior to May 31.  Overall, Molina has only a .261/.286/.368 slash line and four homers over 276 plate appearances, making him one of several veteran Cardinals who are seemingly all having down years at the same time.

This list includes Carpenter, who has a career-worst .216/.325/.381 with 10 home runs over 326 PA.  While his IL stint was minimal, he and the Cards are surely hoping that this brief time off combined with the All-Star break is enough to finally get his bat moving close to the MVP-level production that Carpenter provided over the last three-plus months of the 2018 season.  Carpenter only had a .739 OPS over his first 234 PA last season before exploding for a .983 OPS over his final 443 PA.

Last season’s results notwithstanding, Carpenter’s cold streak this season has lasted longer and reached deeper depths than his slow start to 2018.  His power and hard-hit ball rates have both fallen significantly, while the quality of his contact has also dropped off (.324 xwOBA in 2019, as opposed to a .392 xwOBA in 2018).

Carpenter will resume his usual duties at third base, though the hot-hitting Tommy Edman retained his spot on the MLB roster after his strong performance as Carpenter’s fill-in.  Knizner and Matt Wieters will handle the catching duties while Molina is out.

Injury Notes: Carpenter, Hamels, Athletics, Pence

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The Cardinals placed third baseman Matt Carpenter on the injured list Tuesday because of lower back spasms, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. They recalled reliever John Brebbia from Triple-A Memphis to take Carpenter’s roster spot. Expectations are Carpenter will return July 12, the first game of the season’s second half, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic tweets. Injury aside, the normally excellent Carpenter is one of several Cardinals to come up short of expectations so far in 2019. The 33-year-old’s off to a .216/.325/.381 start (90 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 326 plate appearances, putting him on pace to fall way shy of last season’s 36-HR outburst. Carpenter hasn’t started since last Tuesday, which has left third base to Tommy Edman and Yairo Munoz over the past week.

Here’s more on a few other notable injury situations…

  • The Cubs seem to have dodged a worst-case scenario with injured southpaw Cole Hamels, who suffered a strained left oblique last Friday. Manager Joe Maddon revealed Tuesday that Hamels is “feeling a lot better quicker than we anticipated,” adding the 35-year-old’s MRI delivered positive results (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times). However, there’s still no timetable for the return of Hamels, who has joined the just-returned Kyle Hendricks as one of the Cubs’ top two starters this season.
  • A right knee sprain forced Athletics right fielder Stephen Piscotty to the IL last Sunday. While an MRI didn’t show a tear, Piscotty could still miss a month of action, according to manager Bob Melvin (via Martin Gallegos of MLB.com). Meanwhile, the Athletics finally activated catcher Chris Herrmann from the IL on Tuesday. Herrmann hasn’t gotten to play for the A’s yet since signing a one-year, $1MM deal with the team in the offseason, having undergone arthroscopic surgery on his right knee in early March. Oakland optioned fellow backstop Beau Taylor to Triple-A Las Vegas to clear a 25-man spot for Herrmann and moved injured catcher Nick Hundley to the 60-day IL to open up 40-man space.
  • Rangers All-Star designated hitter/outfielder Hunter Pence suffered a setback during his minor league rehab game Monday, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. There’s no new injury for Pence, who has been out since June 17 with a right groin strain, though it’s now possible he won’t be healthy enough to participate in the All-Star Game. Manager Chris Woodward said Tuesday that Pence is unlikely to return until after the break, but he could still get an at-bat in the Midsummer Classic.
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