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Matt Canterino

Twins Notes: Paddack, Festa, Canterino, Bullpen

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The Twins placed righty Chris Paddack on the 15-day injured list yesterday due to fatigue in his right shoulder, but the right-hander made clear in a follow-up interview that he’s not concerned about any potential injury (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune). “This isn’t pain or discomfort,” said Paddack, who’s in his first season full season back from the second Tommy John surgery of his career. “This is fatigue.”

Paddack expanded that while his general approach is that he wants the ball at every opportunity, he also felt the need to listen to his body and “not be a hero” after a recent dip in his fastball velocity and feelings of a “dead arm.” The 28-year-old righty has tossed 78 1/3 innings this season — already his most since 2021 and in fact more than he pitched in 2022-23 combined (majors and minor league rehab work included). Some fatigue and workload management was to be expected, and the recent drop in velocity prompted the team to make a move.

Notably, Nightengale adds that manager Rocco Baldelli confirmed Paddack will return to the rotation once he’s reinstated from the injured list. There’s no plan to shift the right-hander to a relief role at this time, though he thrived in that setting down the stretch and in the postseason with the Twins last year when he tossed a combined 8 2/3 innings and allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk with a hefty 14 strikeouts. Paddack’s fastball sat at a career-high 95.5 mph last year in relief, per Statcast, and he was frequently touching the upper 90s in the playoffs.

Perhaps a return to that role could be in play down the line (speculatively speaking), but the organization will continue starting him for now. Paddack has a 5.29 ERA in 15 starts, due largely to a pair of ugly outings at Camden Yards (nine runs) and at Yankee Stadium (seven runs).

In the short term, the Twins will need to plug someone into the fifth spot in their rotation. KSTP’s Darren Wolfson reports that Minnesota will start reliever Ryan Jensen today at Triple-A instead of top prospect David Festa, presumably setting the stage for Festa to make his big league debut tomorrow in Arizona. (Note: I misread the team’s game log yesterday and incorrectly wrote that Festa had pitched too recently to be an option; my apologies for the error.)

The 24-year-old Festa has been sharp in Triple-A this season, pitching to a 3.77 ERA with a huge 35.1% strikeout rate, a 9.7% walk rate and a strong 45.5% grounder rate. While his walk rate could stand to come down a few ticks, it’s worth pointing out that Festa has improved considerably in that regard as the season has progressed. After walking an alarming 20% of his opponents through his first four starts, he’s slashed his walk rate to 6.7% — including zero walks over his past two outings. His strikeout rate has improved a bit as he’s honed his command, sitting at 37.3% in his 10 most recent outings.

Festa is considered one of the Twins’ best — if not their best — pitching prospects. He sits at No. 99 on MLB.com’s recently updated top-100 list and is the game’s No. 93 prospect over at FanGraphs. He’s been a nice development story for the Twins as a 13th-round pick in 2021 who signed for a $125K bonus. Minnesota will need to add Festa to the 40-man roster if he is indeed called upon for his debut, but they have an open spot at the moment anyhow (and righty Brock Stewart has already been on the 15-day IL for nearly 60 days in the event that they need a second space anytime soon).

While Festa’s progress toward the big leagues is a big positive, the Twins’ former top pitching prospect, Matt Canterino, has had yet another setback, per Nightengale. The 26-year-old righty is headed for an MRI on his shoulder after experiencing discomfort in a recent bullpen session. Canterino, the No. 54 overall pick back in 2019, has dominated minor league opponents when healthy, evidenced by a career 1.48 ERA and 39.1% strikeout rate since being drafted.

Unfortunately, between the pandemic-canceled 2020 season and repeated injuries, he’s only been able to pitch 85 innings in total. He most recently underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022 and has yet to get back into a minor league game since that time. He’s on the Twins’ 40-man roster and is in the first of three minor league option years, so they needn’t yet consider cutting him loose to open a spot, but it’s another frustrating setback for the talented but oft-injured righty.

There’s better news on a pair of injured Twins relievers, however. The aforementioned Stewart pitched a bullpen session three days ago and will do so again today and on the 29th, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. The former Dodgers prospect has been a revelation since joining the Twins on a minor league deal, pitching 41 innings of relief with a 0.66 ERA and 34.8% strikeout rate dating back to last season. He’s been out since early May with a shoulder injury.

As for righty Justin Topa, whom the Twins acquired in the offseason Jorge Polanco trade, he’s slated to throw a bullpen session in early July, per Park. The right-hander suffered a 25% tear of the patellar tendon in his knee during spring training, Park notes, but was recommended for a platelet-rich plasma injection and rest rather than surgery. Twins trainer Nick Paparesta detailed that Topa will then ramp up through the All-Star break before being reevaluated. A second-half return remains in play for the righty, who pitched 69 innings of 2.96 ERA ball for the Mariners in 2023 and is under team control with the Twins through 2026.

Jhoan Duran, Caleb Thielbar, Anthony DeSclafani To Begin Season On Injured List

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1:39pm: There’s concern that DeSclafani could require season-ending surgery, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey tells Nightengale and others.

1:00pm: Twins closer Jhoan Duran, lefty reliever Caleb Thielbar, and rotation hopeful Anthony DeSclafani will open the season on the 15-day injured list, tweets Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Duran is dealing with a “moderate” oblique strain, while Thielbar will head to the IL with a strained hamstring. DeSclafani has a more ominous forearm strain and is slated to meet with Dr. Keith Meister for further evaluation.

Beyond that trio of surefire big leaguers, the Twins will also see prospect Matt Canterino and roster hopeful Zack Weiss start on the injured list, tweets Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Canterino, long one of the organization’s most promising arms, will be on the Triple-A injured list after suffering a subscapular strain in his shoulder. Weiss, a waiver claim out of the Red Sox organization, has been rehabbing a teres major strain and will be on the major league injured list.

Losing Duran even for a short spell is painful for the Twins, given the flamethrower’s emergence as one of MLB’s premier relievers. Since making his big league debut on Opening Day 2022, Duran has pitched 130 innings of 2.15 ERA ball with 35 saves, 19 holds, a 33.2% strikeout rate, a 7.9% walk rate and a massive 63.4% ground-ball rate. He averaged a ludicrous 101.8 mph on his heater last season and 98.4 mph with his splitter/sinker hybrid (“splinker”). The good news for the Twins is that a moderate strain shouldn’t result in excessively lengthy absence, but even Grade 1 strains have been known to sideline players for upwards of a month. The team hasn’t formally announced a timetable for Duran’s expected return just yet.

Wit Duran sidelined, it’ll likely fall to Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart to handle save situations early in the season. Jax has become one of Duran’s top setup men in recent years and offers an above-average strikeout rate and strong command of a slider-heavy arsenal. Stewart returned from a yearslong MLB absence and multiple arm surgeries brandishing an upper-90s cutter that helped him punch out nearly 36% of his opponents while pitching to a 0.65 ERA in 27 2/3 innings for the Twins last saeson.

The 37-year-old Thielbar has flown under the radar since returning to affiliated ball following a five-year absence in 2020, but he’s quietly been one of the team’s most important relievers in that time. Over the past four seasons, the Minnesota native has given his hometown club 174 innings of 3.21 ERA ball, piling up 45 holds while punching out 30.2% of his opponents against a 7.4% walk rate. He struggled against right-handers last season, yielding a .258/.319/.621 batting line, but Thielbar didn’t have glaring struggles against righties from 2020-22. As with Duran, they’ll hope for a relatively brief absence, but the team hasn’t given any specifics on how long he’s expected to miss just yet.

Word of DeSclafani’s injury is the most concerning of the three. Acquired from the Mariners (who’d picked him up from the Giants previously) as part of the trade sending Jorge Polanco to Seattle, DeSclafani had been in the running to open the season as the Twins’ fifth starter. He was slowed early in camp by some discomfort and is now headed for evaluation with one of the sport’s more notable surgeons.

DeSclafani has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. He missed the entire 2017 season with a UCL sprain that never required surgery, pitched a mostly healthy year in 2018 and enjoyed one of the best seasons of his career with the Reds in 2019. A teres major strain hobbled him in 2020 and limited him to 33 2/3 innings of 7.22 ERA ball, however. DeSclafani bounced back with a bit 2021 season in San Francisco, working 167 2/3 frames of 3.17 ERA ball over a mostly full slate of 31 starts.

DeSclafani re-signed in San Francisco on a three-year, $36MM deal that hasn’t at all gone according to plan. An ankle injury that eventually required surgery limited him to 19 frames in 2022. Shoulder fatigue and a pair of flexor strains capped him at 99 2/3 frames in 2023. He’ll now be slowed to begin the 2024 season, though a timeline won’t be known until that appointment with Dr. Meister has taken place.

The Twins are only the hook for $4MM of DeSclafani’s $12MM salary. The Giants sent $6MM to the Mariners in their original trade involving DeSclafani, and the M’s sent that plus another $2MM to Minnesota in the Polanco swap. With DeSclafani headed to the injured list, right-hander Louie Varland should have the fifth spot in the rotation all but locked up. He’ll follow Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack and Bailey Ober in what should be a solid Twins staff if everyone can remain healthy. However, the Twins will undoubtedly feel the losses of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, particularly now with their top depth option shelved. In the event of additional pitching injuries, Minnesota would likely turn to one of Simeon Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick or yet-to-debut top prospect David Festa.

As for the others, Canterino is still working his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. Injuries have regularly slowed him since being selected in the second round of the 2019 draft. Between shaky health and the scrapped 2020 minor league season, he’s still pitched only 85 professional innings. They’ve been excellent — 1.48 ERA, 39.2% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate — but his persistent injury troubles have undercut his considerable upside. As for Weiss, he’s pitched just 27 1/3 MLB frames but has a history of strong strikeout totals in the minors. He could be a bullpen option for the Twins at some point, but for now he’ll collect MLB service and pay while rehabbing. For a 32-year-old with just 91 days of big league service to this point in his career, that’s not insignificant.

It seems unlikely that the Twins will go outside the organization to boost their depth — at least in term of significant salary additions. Owner Joe Pohlad all but declared his team out on top names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery earlier in camp when stating that his team was not going to “go out and spend $30MM on a player right now.” The Twins shocked baseball with a pair of Carlos Correa signings that came together under similar circumstances, but it doesn’t seem there’s another splash of that magnitude up their sleeves. Minnesota was reportedly interested in Michael Lorenzen earlier in the offseason, so it’s possible they could still circle back on that front. More likely is that they’ll just ride things out with internal options, perhaps adding a veteran on a minor league deal. A particularly lengthy absence for DeSclafani could create some extra urgency, so the results of his evaluation are worth tracking with a close eye for Twins fans.

Twins Select Four Players

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The Twins announced this evening they’ve selected four players onto the 40-man roster to prevent them from being eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Joining the roster are infielder Edouard Julien and pitchers Matt Canterino, Brent Headrick and Casey Legumina.

Julien was an 18th-round draftee out of Auburn in 2019. He’s hit very well in the minor leagues the last two years, including a .300/.441/.490 line with 17 home runs across 508 plate appearances at Double-A Wichita. The Quebec native walked in a stellar 19.3% of his plate appearances against a manageable 24.6% strikeout rate. He’s played each of second, third and first base and gotten some time in left field. Better suited for a corner, Julien’s a bat-first utility prospect. He checked in 10th on Minnesota’s midseason farm rankings at Baseball America.

Canterino went in the second round of the same draft coming out of Rice. The right-hander has an intriguing four-pitch mix but hasn’t logged many professional innings after spending time on the injured list in each of his seasons. He tossed 34 1/3 innings through 11 outings with Wichita this year, posting a 1.83 ERA with a huge 34.7% strikeout rate but walking 15.3% of opponents.

Headrick, 25 next month, was a ninth-rounder in 2019 from Illinois State. The 6’6″ left-hander split the year between High-A Cedar Rapids and Wichita. He combined for a 3.32 ERA through 108 1/3 innings, fanning just under 31% of opponents with only a 5.7% walk percentage.

Legumina was an 8th-rounder in that class out of Gonzaga. The 25-year-old joined Headrick in splitting his season between Cedar Rapids and Wichita. He posted a 4.80 ERA while working primarily in multi-inning relief. Legumina struck out roughly 24% of opponents with a 9.4% walk percentage.

Injury Notes: Harper, Schwarber, Daza, Harris, Canterino

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Reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper, on the shelf due to June surgery to repair a broken left thumb and also playing through a torn UCL in his right elbow, is backing off his throwing program due to ongoing stiffness in his right elbow, Phillies interim manager Rob Thomson told reporters this week (link via Scott Lauber of the Philly Inquirer).  Harper played through that ligament tear for months before an errant Blake Snell heater broke his left thumb and forced him to the injured list, though he’d been limited to DH work because the elbow tear prevented him from throwing.

Offseason Tommy John surgery is a possibility, though there’d been some hope that after receiving an injection in May, Harper might yet be able to gut it out and play right field upon returning.  For now, the Phils are just going to “concentrate on the hitting” aspect of Harper’s recovery, per Thomson, who added that there’s “no doubt in my mind” Harper will be back in the lineup this season.  He still needs to regain some flexibility in his thumb, from which doctors removed three pins back on Aug. 1.  Given the lengthy layoff, Harper will also need a minor league rehab assignment of some length.

More on other injury situations from around baseball…

  • In another concern for the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber left today’s game with what Thomson told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb) was a mild right calf strain.  Schwarber will undergo tests but is currently considered day-to-day.  With an NL-leading 34 home runs, Schwarber has provided his typical power in his first season in Philadelphia, and the Phillies can only hope that the calf strain won’t require a lengthy IL stint.
  • Outfielder Yonathan Daza suffered what the Rockies described as a left shoulder sprain in today’s game against the Cardinals.  Daza suffered the injury while making a running catch to rob Nolan Arenado of a hit in the first inning, as the momentum took Daza to the ground and he immediately grabbed at his shoulder.  Now in his third MLB season, Daza has hit .299/.345/.367 over 307 plate appearances with Colorado in 2022, getting the majority of playing time as the Rockies’ starting center fielder.
  • Will Harris has yet to pitch in 2022, and the veteran reliever has now suffered another setback in the form of a groin injury.  (The Washington Post’s Andrew Golden was among those to report the news.)  Harris underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in June 2021 and then a related pectoral surgery last March, but the righty seemed to be on the way back when he started a minor league rehab assignment in late July.  However, Harris hasn’t pitched with the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate since August 2, bringing fresh doubt as to whether or not he can return to a big league mound before the season is over.  It is possible Harris has already thrown his last pitch as a National, since his three-year, $24MM deal with the team is up at season’s end.
  • Twins pitching prospect Matt Canterino will undergo Tommy John surgery this month, as initially reported by SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter link).  Canterino has been plagued by elbow injuries for the better part of two seasons, limiting the right-hander to just 60 total innings since the start of the 2021 minor league season.  As Twins assistant GM Jeremy Zoll told The St. Paul Pioneer Press’ Betsy Helfand and other reporters, “it felt like we didn’t have any more stones to turn over, and Matt was feeling like surgery was the right call for him to try and get him back up and running from there.”  Canterino was the Twins’ second-round pick in the 2019 draft, and he has an impressive 1.48 ERA and 39.16% strikeout rate over 85 career innings in pro ball.  As per the normal timeline for TJ recovery, Canterino won’t be back until August 2023 at the absolute earliest, and it is quite possible he’ll be sidelined until Spring Training 2024.

AL Notes: Glasnow, Astros, Kreidler, Canterino

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In the latest step of Tyler Glasnow’s recovery from Tommy John surgery, the Rays right-hander has started throwing, agent Joel Wolfe told Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times.  Glasnow underwent his surgery in early August, so while it’s very up in the air as to whether or not he’ll be able to make it back to action before the 2022 season is out, he is setting an in-season return as his goal.  Beyond just his health, the other question concerning Glasnow is whether or not he’d be returning to the mound in a Rays uniform — projected for a $5.8MM salary this year, Glasnow has been widely speculated as a trade candidate for a Tampa club that is forever looking to manage its payroll.

Some other tidbits from around the American League…

  • “Position addition” is the name for the Astros’ process of experimenting with its most athletic prospects at various other positions, The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome writes.  Naturally, the more versatile a player is, the better his chances at reaching the majors in some kind of role.  “It always depends on what the major league roster is going to look like in the future, but I think it just raises a lot of those guys’ floors,” Astros field coordinator Jason Bell said.  “I think our guys have been fairly open to it…and I think a lot of times they think it’s fun.”  Of the 23 position players in Houston’s minicamp, 12 are designated as part of an “infielder/outfielder” defensive grouping, working at positions both in the grass and on the dirt.
  • Tigers prospect Ryan Kreidler may know a few things about position changes, as the longtime shortstop saw Javier Baez suddenly emerge as a roadblock after Baez landed in the Motor City on a six-year, $140MM deal.  While Baez can opt out of that contract after the 2023 season, Kreidler will likely be focusing on other positions in the interim — he has played a handful of games at third base and second base during his two minor league seasons.  “I will do whatever the Tigers want me to do, whether it’s shortstop, shortstop and third base, or utility,” Kreidler told Chris McCosky of The Detroit News.  “Whatever they deem me capable of doing I will do it to the best of my ability and just keep trucking…I think shortstops have the ability to play all over the field, that’s why continuing to take reps at shortstop is good for me.”  After a strong performance at the plate in 2021, Kreidler drew the attention of prospect evaluators and other teams, and now looks like yet another promising young Detroit player on the cusp of the big leagues.  Jonathan Schoop and Jeimer Candelario have second and third base spoken for, and are both also controlled through 2023, so a utility role might indeed be Kreidler’s best path to the Tigers’ active roster.
  • Elbow problems limited Matt Canterino to 23 innings in 2021, and between that abbreviated season and the canceled 2020 minor league campaign, the Twins prospect has tossed only 48 professional innings since being selected in the second round of the 2019 draft.  Canterino came to Minnesota’s minicamp on a clean bill of health, he told Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, and he is now focused on staying on the field.  “I can’t really worry too much about a shutdown period, like how my workload’s going to be managed, but I can do the things that I think are going to help me stay healthy in the long run,” Canterino said.  The righty has looked tremendous when he has been able to pitch, posting a 1.13 ERA and a whopping 42.94% strikeout rate over his 48 innings (topping out at the high-A level).
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