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Mariners Notes: Left Field, Brash, Rotation

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The Mariners’ plans in left field have looked fairly straightforward since the team signed AJ Pollock to a one-year deal last month, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto nonetheless confirmed to reporters last night that the expectation is for left field to a platoon between Pollock and one of Jarred Kelenic or Taylor Trammell (Twitter link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

Both Kelenic, 23, and Trammell, 25, are recent top-100 prospects who at one point were candidates to hold down long-term spots in the Seattle outfield. Kelenic, in particular, was touted as a potential star but has struggled in the big leagues to this point despite a .302/.372/.574 output in 537 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. His struggles against fellow lefties have been particularly pronounced, but Kelenic did turn in a .249/.330/.503 slash against right-handed pitching in 2022 (Triple-A and MLB combined). Trammell, meanwhile, hit .274/.365/.527 against righties between Triple-A and MLB. There’s some understandable hope, then, that a platoon arrangement with one of Kelenic/Trammell and Pollock (.286/.316/.619 against lefties in 2022) could form a productive tandem.

Trammell was heralded as the superior defender of the pair during his prospect days, though neither he nor Kelenic has posted standout defensive grades thus far in the big leagues. Kelenic has more experience in the corners and has drawn above-average marks for his work there. He’s also been more apt to barrel the ball and has been less strikeout-prone, though his 29.9% mark in the big leagues is obviously problematic.

Both Kelenic and Trammell were featured in a piece by Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser, wherein he polled scouts for opinions on some recent top prospects who’ve graduated to the Majors but struggled to establish themselves. Kelenic drew more praise between the two, particularly for substantial defensive improvements, but scouts who spoke to Glaser offered fairly bearish views of both players’ swings at this point. However, Mariners GM Justin Hollander said yesterday that hitting coach Jarret DeHart has been working with Kelenic and gone through a motion-capture breakdown of his swing this offseason, and the results have been “over-the-top awesome” (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic).

Both Kelenic and Trammell are still young, and it’s fairly common to see a swing change or mechanical adjustment bring about major turnarounds in a player’s outlook. The Mariners clearly aren’t giving up on either player yet, though with both entering their final minor league option year, this is a crucial season for Kelenic and Trammell. Should they falter, the M’s have another lefty-swinging outfield bat who’s nearly ready for a Major League look; 25-year-old Cade Marlowe is on the 40-man roster and turned in a combined .287/.377/.487 slash between 120 Double-A games and 13 Triple-A games in 2022.

Kelenic and Trammell aren’t the only once-vaunted Mariners prospects who’ve turned in shaky big league results to this point. Righty Matt Brash won the fifth starter’s job out of spring training in 2022 but was tagged for 17 runs while posting a 19-to-17 K/BB ratio through his first 20 innings (five starts). That prompted the team to option Brash back to Triple-A Tacoma, and when he returned in July, he was used exclusively as a reliever.

That’ll be Brash’s role in 2023 as well, Dipoto confirmed (Twitter link via Divish). It’s easy to see why the Mariners are intrigued by the switch. Brash has been a starter for most of his career, but he returned to the Majors and obliterated opposing lineups while working in short relief last summer; from July 9 through season’s end, the 24-year-old pitched to a 2.35 ERA with a huge 33.9% strikeout rate. His 12.6% walk rate still needs refinement, but Brash’s heater jumped from an average of 96.3 mph in the rotation to 97.8 mph out of the ’pen and his 14% swinging-strike rate was excellent.

It’s always possible that there will be rotation innings for Brash down the road, but the Mariners look to have several spots locked up long-term. Ace Luis Castillo signed a five-year, $108MM extension after being acquired in a trade last summer, and left-hander Robbie Ray inked a five-year, $115MM in free agency last offseason. Young arms Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, meanwhile, are controllable for another five and six seasons, respectively.

Both Gilbert and Kirby have made good on their status as former first-rounders and top prospects, quickly cementing themselves as high-quality big league hurlers. And, as Dipoto tells it, the duo won’t be facing any hard innings limitations in 2023 (via Brock). Gilbert threw 185 2/3 innings over the life of 32 regular-season starts in 2022, while Kirby notched a combined 156 2/3 innings between Double-A, Triple-A and the big leagues. Both pitchers turned in an ERA in the low-3.00s with sharp strikeout and walk rates (Kirby, in particular). The pair might be eased into spring work, but the goal seems to be for each to make a five-inning start in the late stages of camp, setting the stage for them to work without limits once the season begins.

The group of Castillo, Ray, Gilbert and Kirby is among the best rotation quartets in baseball, but the fifth spot in the rotation remains a source of at least some uncertainty. Seattle has a pair of candidates in Marco Gonzales, a mainstay over the past five years, and KBO returnee Chris Flexen, who’s posted a 3.66 ERA in two seasons since signing in Seattle. Both pitchers have been floated as possible trade candidates throughout the winter. Gonzales is owed a combined $18.5MM from 2023-24, while Flexen will earn $8MM in 2023 before becoming a free agent in the offseason.

There’s been little indication of serious trade talks involving either in recent weeks, but it’s certainly possible that another club will show increased interest once early-spring injuries inevitably begin to arise. Then again, having both on hand gives the Mariners themselves an important safety net in the event of an in-house injury, so there’s little pressure to force a deal if the return isn’t meaningful.

Pitching Notes: Brash, Lugo, Red Sox, Raley

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Matt Brash’s debut in the majors resulted in a 4.44 ERA over 50 2/3 innings, with pronounced splits as a starter (7.65 ERA) and as a reliever (2.35), since returning from a minor league demotion in a relief role worked wonders for Brash’s effectiveness.  Unsurprisingly, “Brash has generated a ton of [trade] interest after his rookie season,” Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times writes, “but it would take a lot” for the Mariners to consider moving the 24-year-old.  If anything, the M’s have faith that Brash could still be part of a rotation, given the club’s plan to stretch him out for Spring Training.

Brash’s 14.9% walk rate was the third-highest of any pitcher in baseball with at least 50 innings pitched in 2022, and he also allowed a lot of hard contact.  On the plus side, the hard-throwing Brash had an above-average 27.9% strikeout rate, and elite curveball spin to go along with excellent whiff and barrel rates.  There’s a lot to like about a young pitcher who still has only 179 1/3 combined innings on his record at the Major and minor league levels, and rival teams are naturally seeing if the win-now Mariners might be open to moving a younger pitcher for a more established MLB-level player.  Nothing can truly be ruled out given the aggressiveness of Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto, yet it’s probably likelier that one of Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen are dealt from the Mariners’ pitching mix.

More pitching-related items from around baseball….

  • Back on November 14, The Athletic’s Will Sammon reported that the Mets weren’t one of the many teams who had checked in with free agent righty Seth Lugo.  Almost two weeks later, the two sides still haven’t been in touch, and “the Mets do not view Lugo as a starter,” Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.  Lugo is reportedly open to signing as either a starter or as a reliever, and at least some of the other suitors have some interest in Lugo’s potential as a rotation piece.  Speculatively, this could translate to at least an incentive-heavy contract for Lugo, with more bonus money available if he ends up making more starts than relief appearances.  It could be that the Mets simply don’t value Lugo at this price, and are ready to look elsewhere in their search for bullpen help.
  • The Red Sox pursued left-hander Brooks Raley in free agency last year, and offered Raley a two-year deal worth roughly $8MM, according to The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier.  Raley ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with the Rays, and then had a strong season for Boston’s division rival (Raley’s year included a 0.00 ERA over six innings against the Sox).  Between missing out on Raley and the general lack of quality in Boston’s 2022 bullpen, Speier writes that the Red Sox “came to regret not pursuing relief help more aggressively,” and opines whether or not the team might put more emphasis on relievers this winter.  Chaim Bloom hasn’t spent much on relief pitching in his first three offseasons as the Red Sox chief baseball officer, and thus far this winter, Speier notes that the Sox haven’t yet paid much attention to the relief market, with a larger (and understandable) focus on starting pitching and re-signing Xander Bogaerts.

Dipoto: Mariners Getting Trade Interest In Chris Flexen

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With six starters on the Mariners’ roster at the moment, fifth starter candidates Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen have both emerged as potential trade candidates. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto confirmed at today’s GM Meetings that other clubs were showing interest in Flexen back at the trade deadline and have expressed continued interest in the right-hander throughout this week’s GM Meetings in Las Vegas (Twitter link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

Flexen isn’t the only Mariners arm who’s drawn interest; Dipoto told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that his team is “getting hit constantly, up and down, with our bullpen, our starters.” However, Dipoto also stressed that he doesn’t plan to subtract from his bullpen via trade, but rather hopes to further augment an already strong relief corps.

As things stand, the Mariners have a deep rotation — with six starters for five spots. Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby make up one of the sport’s best rotation quartets, and they’re trailed by a pair of solid fifth starter options in Flexen and longtime Mariner Marco Gonzales. Seattle also has young Matt Brash as a potential option, and while the thinking is that he’s likely bullpen-bound for the foreseeable future, Dipoto told Divish that Brash would head to Spring Training stretched out as a starter and be downshifted into a relief role if the rotation remained healthy and did not undergo any other changes.

Those potential changes, quite likely, are in reference to a possible trade of Flexen and/or Gonzales. While neither is going to front any team’s rotation, both pitchers are serviceable options in the fourth or fifth spot of a starting staff, and both are relatively affordable. Flexen is set to earn $8MM next season after triggering a vesting option on his contract. He’ll only have three-plus years of service time at that point, but MLBTR has confirmed that the two-year deal Flexen signed upon returning from the KBO allows him to become a free agent next winter. As such, he’s a one-year rental.

Since returning from a one-year stint in the KBO, the 28-year-old Flexen has pitched 317 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA ball for the Mariners. His 16.5% strikeout rate has been well south of league-average, but he’s better than average in terms of walk rate (6.8%) and limiting home runs (1.02 HR/9). Flexen has also averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start and done a decent job minimizing hard contact.

As for Gonzales, a trade would be tougher to piece together. He’ll turn 31 in February, making him a good bit older than Flexen, and while his $6.5MM salary for the 2023 season is more affordable than that of Flexen, Gonzales is also owed $12MM in 2024. His contract contains a $15MM option for the 2025 season, though that option has no buyout.

Two years at a combined $18.5MM isn’t necessarily egregious for Gonzales, but it’s likely more than he’d fetch in the open market at present. He’s made 67 starts and soaked up 326 1/3 innings with a 4.05 ERA over the past two seasons, but Gonzales has seen his fastball velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and home run rate all trend in the wrong direction. Metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him about a full run worse than his ERA.

Logically speaking, the Mariners appear to be headed toward some form of move involving one of their two back-of-the-rotation options. Flexen, in particular, would seem appealing given the short term remaining on his contract and more reasonable overall commitment, though that’s only my own speculation.

Moving either player would help the Mariners to scale back a projected $131MM payroll next season (hat tip: Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez), not that they necessarily need to. The team’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll was $158MM back in 2018, and they took their payroll north of $170MM each year from 2016-18 by way of in-season trades (via Cot’s). That should leave ample payroll space regardless of how the team acts with regard to its rotation.

Still, spending a combined $14.5MM in 2023 payroll on a pair of fifth-starter candidates is, obviously, a sub-optimal arrangement. Shedding some or all of that combined salary will only give Dipoto and his staff more flexibility when it comes to offseason pursuits, and it’s possible that Flexen in particular could help net some immediate help for the big league roster (perhaps with some minor league talent being included by Seattle). As far as potential other targets, Dipoto has already acknowledged that he feels NPB ace Kodai Senga could be an “impact” MLB arm, and he mentioned in the aforementioned Rosenthal column that his club could seek a middle infielder and at least one — if not two — corner outfielders this winter.

Injury Notes: Jones, Wells, Castillo

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Less than two weeks after being drafted second overall, Druw Jones’ pro debut will now likely be put off until 2023 due to a left shoulder injury suffered in Jones’ first batting-practice session with the Diamondbacks.  Jones received an MRI yesterday but it isn’t known yet if surgery could be required, Arizona farm director Josh Barfield told reporters (including MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert).

Most pundits tabbed Jones as the top player available in the 2022 draft class, though after the Orioles opted for Jackson Holliday with the first overall pick, the D’Backs jumped to select Jones in the second spot.  The 18-year-old was tentatively slated to start playing Arizona Complex League games this week, and possibly further minor league action later in the season if all went well.  Now, Jones probably won’t officially get onto the field until next season, and even the start of the 2023 season might not be a sure thing if he indeed has to get surgery.

More injury notes from around baseball…

  • The Orioles placed right-hander Tyler Wells on the 15-day injured list due to discomfort in his lower left side.  Baltimore also optioned left-hander Nick Vespi to Triple-A and called up righties Logan Gillaspie and Beau Sulser in corresponding moves.  After making his big league debut as a reliever in 2021, Wells became a solid member of the Orioles rotation this year, posting a 3.90 ERA over 20 starts and 94 2/3 innings.  However, his side injury forced him to make an early exit from his start yesterday against the Rays, and the full extent of Wells’ injury (i.e. a possible oblique problem) isn’t yet known.
  • The Mariners placed Diego Castillo on the 15-day IL due to right shoulder inflammation, with a placement retroactive to July 26.  Righty Matt Brash was recalled from Triple-A to take Castillo’s roster spot.  This is the third time in four seasons that shoulder inflammation has sent Castillo to the IL, though he was able to return within 2-3 weeks in each of those previous stints.  It was almost exactly one year ago that the Mariners acquired Castillo from the Rays in a pre-deadline trade, and the righty has continued his quality work in a Seattle uniform, posting a 3.53 ERA over 58 2/3 innings as a Mariner.  Walks have been an issue for Castillo this season, but has mitigated these control problems with above-average strikeout and hard-contact numbers, as well as a career-best 9.7% home run rate.

Quick Hits: Tigers, Mariners, Trade Market

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The Tigers have signed right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez and assigned him to Triple-A, per Emily Waldon of Baseball America (via Twitter). Gonzalez has twice opted out of minor league opportunities this season, first with the Twins, and more recently with the Brewers. He did appear in the Majors with both clubs, tossing 11 1/3 innings over four outings (two starts) with Milwaukee and making two starts spanning seven innings with Minnesota. Overall, Gonzalez has registered a 6.87 ERA/6.01 FIP across 18 1/3 innings this season. In other recent news…

  • Taylor Williams has signed with the Mariners and been assigned to Triple-A Tacoma, per Paul Braverman of the Tacoma Rainiers (via Twitter). The 31-year-old right-hander was a member of the Mariners in 2020, but he was dealt to the Padres in what turned out to be a beneficial deal for Seattle, who acquired Matt Brash, a breakout minor leaguer for Seattle in 2021.
  • There is always a fair amount of turnover at the edges of Major League rosters at this time of year, but teams looking for relief help should have plenty of options on the trade market should they be willing to engage that route. As of right now, the relief market appears more “robust” than over positional trade markets, so says Mets GM Billy Eppler, per Deesha Thosar of Fox Sports (via Twitter). Just about every contender could use another relief arm or two.

Mariners Announce Six Roster Moves

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Mariners manager Scott Servais told reporters (including MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer) about a series of roster moves prior to tonight’s game with the Blue Jays, including catcher Luis Torrens being activated from the 10-day injured list.  Torrens joins minor league callups Matt Brash and Matt Festa as new faces on Seattle’s roster, while right-hander Ken Giles was placed on the 15-day IL due to shoulder inflammation, catcher Andrew Knapp was designated for assignment, and right-hander Erik Swanson was placed on the paternity list.

Left shoulder inflammation sent Torrens to the IL back on June 27, so he’ll return after missing only just beyond the 10-day minimum.  The Mariners were hoping Torrens’ good numbers in 2021 meant he was ready to take a step forward as a part-time DH and catcher this season, but he has struggled to a .222/.280/.241 slash line over 118 plate appearances.  Cal Raleigh has started to emerge as a solid regular starter behind the plate, and Tom Murphy is gone for the season due to shoulder surgery, so there would seemingly be room for Torrens to remain as the backup catcher for the remainder of the year.

Seattle selected Knapp’s contract when Torrens hit the injured list, and Knapp has appeared in two games in a Mariners uniform.  Due to Knapp’s service time and the fact that he has been outrighted off a 40-man roster in the past, he has the freedom to elect free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate — Knapp already chose free agency when the Pirates DFA’ed him in May, which paved the way for Knapp to sign with the Mariners.  It remains to be seen if Knapp will become a free agent again, or if he’ll choose to remain at Triple-A Tacoma (assuming he clears DFA waivers) as a depth option.

After missing all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, Giles then suffered a strained tendon in his right middle finger that delayed his M’s debut until June 21.  The veteran reliever has allowed no runs and only one hit over 4 1/3 innings of work, albeit with four walks in that small sample size.  Unfortunately for Giles, he’ll now be sidelined again with this latest injury.

Brash and Festa will look to fill the holes in Seattle’s bullpen, and Brash is making his return to the big leagues in a new relief role.  Beginning the year as a starting pitcher, the former top-100 prospect posted a 7.65 ERA over five starts and 20 innings, recording almost as many walks (17) as strikeouts (19).  The Mariners made the aggressive decision to promote Brash to the majors without any time spent at Triple-A, so Brash got his first taste of the top minor league level when the M’s demoted him in May and then converted him to relief pitching.

The results have thus far been impressive.  Over his last 17 innings, Brash has posted a 1.59 ERA, a whopping 37.9% strikeout rate, and only a 7.57% walk rate.  The hard-throwing Brash has the stuff to be a dominant reliever on paper, should he keep his past control problems in check.

Big Hype Prospects: Henderson, Harris, De La Cruz, Brash, Valera

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This week, we (mostly) delve deeper into the minors to examine some fast-rising future stars.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Gunnar Henderson, 20, 3B/SS, BAL (AAA)

(AA) 208 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .312/.452/.573

Few prospects have done more to improve their stock than Henderson. Coming off a passable but unspectacular 2021 season, Henderson has torched minor league pitching. Since earning a promotion to Triple-A, he’s continued to punish opposing pitchers to the tune of .286/.500/.536 with two home runs in 40 plate appearances. He also has 12 walks against just five strikeouts. In Double-A, he posted 19.7 percent walk and 18.3 percent strikeout rates.

His outlandish performance to date is backed by scouting observations. I spoke with Orioles Director of Player Development Matt Blood prior to the season, and he specifically highlighted Henderson as someone who has turned the corner mentally. Last year, Henderson had some of the markers of passivity – namely a high walk rate, high strikeout rate, and a modest swinging strike rate. This season, he’s reportedly improved upon his selectivity, punishing pitches in the zone while continuing to spit on those outside the zone.

Henderson currently ranks 45th on the MLB Pipeline Top Prospects List. At this rate, he’ll soon join the Top 10 – unless he races to the Majors before the listmakers have time to adjust. The folks who curate your favorite prospect list tend to be quite conservative about upgrading guys based on a partial-season breakout, and with reason! We’ve seen many players post astronomical half-seasons only to later resume a more ordinary development path.

Michael Harris II, 21, OF, ATL (MLB)

70 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .328/.357/.537

To the best of my knowledge, Harris was the third position player to be promoted straight from Double-A to a Major League starting lineup this season. The first, C.J. Abrams, was overexposed in the Majors. Cubs utilityman Christopher Morel looks right at home in the big leagues. So too does Harris.

Harris makes low-angle contact with an all-fields approach. He’s also making frequent hard and barreled contact. Both rates are above league average as measured by Statcast. Taken together, he has the traits of a high batting average hitter. Where he seemingly lags is plate discipline. He’s taken a swing-happy approach in his first exposure to the Majors. He’s especially prone to offering at pitches outside of the zone. His in-zone swing rate is only a hair above league average. His contact rate is roughly league average too. In other words, his aggression hasn’t proven costly. Yet.

It’s not uncommon for physically gifted prospects to reach the Majors, perform surprisingly well, then slump once scouting reports adjust. In Harris’ case, scouts are going to advise a bevy of breaking balls out of the zone. If he plunges into a slump, he might get a belated taste of Triple-A. If he adjusts quickly or otherwise holds his own, then he’s probably here to stay.

Harris is the midst of an eight-game hitting streak over which he’s batting .433/.469/.800 with both of his home runs and steals.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, 3B/SS, (A+)

222 PA, 12 HR, 17 SB, .304/.351/.594

If you haven’t already heard about De La Cruz, expect to see his name appearing in more and more articles. Scouts love his build – he has light-tower power, near-elite speed, and a cannon of an arm. He already makes some of the loudest contact in the minors. While he’s mostly worked at shortstop, there’s an expectation he’ll eventually move to third base or perhaps even center field.

A prospect of De La Cruz’s ilk always comes with caveats. His plate discipline can be (generously) described as questionable. His current 6.3 percent walk rate is a marked improvement over the 4.8 percent rate he posted last season. Meanwhile, his 30.6 percent strikeout rate is right in line with his previous performance.

Given his current contact profile, he could fall into a Javier Baez-like mold. Or perhaps Oneil Cruz is the better comp. After all, they’re both physical mutants who might stick at shortstop. Cruz happened to post similar numbers as a 20-year-old in High-A, then held his own in Double-A later that year. Cruz even had questions about his plate discipline. The Reds have no incentive to rush De La Cruz, but he should sniff the upper minors in the coming months.

Matt Brash, 24, SP/RP, SEA (AAA)

19 IP, 3.32 ERA, 15.16 K/9, 5.21 BB/9

Brash entered the season in the Mariners rotation, dazzled in his debut, then proceeded to walk the world. I recall watching that first outing and worrying what would happen when hitters stopped swinging at his breaking balls out of the zone. He didn’t show any sign of being able to command anything within the strike zone. Sure enough, it quickly became a problem. The Mariners made the decision to demote him from the Major League rotation straight to the Triple-A bullpen. A relief role offers a more direct path for pitchers with Brash’s combination of filthy stuff and poor command.

Signs are pointing in the right direction. After some initial command-related struggles, Brash has shoved over his last 10 appearances. His 10-inning scoreless streak dating back to May 25 includes just five hits and two walks compared to 16 strikeouts. He once again appears to be ready for prime time. Unfortunately for him, the Seattle bullpen is fairly robust and will soon need to make way for Ken Giles (who happens to be flailing in his rehab assignment). Brash may need to await a couple injuries to reclaim a role.

George Valera, 21, OF, CLE (AA)

236 PA, 10 HR, 2 SB, .291/.398/.513

Expectations for Valera vary greatly depending on the source. I’ve seen Cleveland fans compare him to Mike Trout. I’ve also seen open skepticism about his hit tool. His performance this season hasn’t exactly supported either of these extreme interpretations. Instead, he seems to be trending as a steady regular outfielder.

Statistically, Valera works counts and runs a tolerable 11.6 percent swinging strike rate. That’s helped him to around a 23 percent strikeout rate any time he’s settled into a level. His strikeout rate tends to spike above 30 percent when he moves up a level. He’s seemingly nearing a promotion to Triple-A. We should probably expect another temporary surge in strikeouts when it happens. His pattern of struggling then dominating each rung of the minor league ladder is reminiscent of Jo Adell. Valera’s discipline should serve to ensure some kind of big league role.

Five More

Zack Gelof, OAK (22): A 2021 draftee, the Athletics promoted Gelof straight from Low-A to Triple-A last season where he held his own in a 13-plate appearance trial. They assigned him to Double-A this season. He’s hit .315/.372/.458. Gelof recently tore the labrum of his non-throwing shoulder and could miss the bulk of this season depending on the treatment plan.

Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): Every season, there’s one teenaged prospect who catches the imagination of every prospect watcher. Last year, it was De La Cruz. This season, it’s Chourio. Scouting reports abound with praise for the young outfielder. He’s currently swatting .347/.394/.599 with six home runs and five steals in 160 plate appearances. It’s uncommon for well-rounded athletes to show this much power as an 18-year-old. Chourio is a long way from the Majors, but his path is already paved. He just has to stay on it, and walk the remaining miles.

Andrew Painter, PHI (19): Painter made a mockery of the complex league, posting a 1.40 ERA with 16.06 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9. He’s shown advanced feel for a pitcher his age. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen notes how well he combines a high, arm-side fastball with a biting slider. He also throws a curve and changeup, both of which lag behind his two primary offerings. He’ll need to develop those in order to stick in the rotation. Painter was recently promoted to High-A.

Bobby Miller, LAD (23): A flamethrowing right-hander, Miller has experienced mixed results in Double-A. He’s posted a 4.60 ERA with 9.57 K/9 and 3.26 BB/9. There’s a Hunter Greene-ish feel to Miller. His fastball runs over 100-mph with regularity, but certain characteristics cause it to play down. There’s relief risk here, especially if the Dodgers don’t trade him. They have the resources to use him in whichever role provides the most instant gratification.

Noelvi Marte, SEA (20): Last week, I observed that a sliver of the shine has come off Marte. A prominent writer reached out for my sources, and I realized I’d misplaced the relevant comment. I’ll do a better job sourcing my material going forward. Presently Marte is putting up slightly better than average production as one of the youngest players in High-A. He remains an exciting prospect.

Mariners Make Six Roster Moves

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5:29PM: Brash will pitch out of the bullpen at Triple-A, as reported by The Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish and other media members.  Relief work could give Brash a quicker path back to the majors and allow him to better help the Mariners in 2022, even if the team still sees him as a longer-term starting pitcher.

2:47PM: The Mariners announced six roster moves, including the news that right-hander Matt Brash has been optioned to Triple-A.  Left-hander Nick Margevicius was designated for assignment, and righty Matt Festa was placed on the 15-day injured list with right elbow tendinitis.  Joining the roster from Triple-A Tacoma are right-hander Riley O’Brien and left-hander Danny Young, with Young’s contract being officially selected.  In addition, recently-designated right-hander Matt Koch has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A.

Brash has never pitched at the Triple-A level before, as the Mariners made the aggressive move of adding him to the Opening Day roster after an impressive Spring Training.  A rather lightly-regarded prospect who was acquired from the Padres in 2020, Brash exploded into top-100 notoriety with a very impressive 2021 season with the Mariners’ high-A and Double-A affiliates.

Results were far more mixed for Brash in his first taste of the bigs, however.  Brash has a 7.65 ERA over five starts and 20 innings, with almost as many walks (17) as strikeouts (19).  Yesterday’s start against the Astros saw Brash allow four runs over three innings, walking four batters and striking out three.

With Brash heading to Triple-A for more seasoning, Seattle has a hole to fill in the rotation.  The M’s have a few days remaining to figure out their plans, whether they’ll go with a bullpen game for Brash’s next scheduled start or whether another Triple-A call-up could be in the works.  Asher Wojciechowski, Daniel Ponce de Leon, and Darren McCaughan are all getting starts for the Rainiers but none have pitched particularly well, and Margevicius is now headed to the DFA wire.

Margevicius has also struggled, posting a 12.75 ERA over four starts and 12 innings at the Triple-A level.  A veteran of three MLB seasons, Margevicius is trying to work his way back from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, and it isn’t surprising that the southpaw is still getting on track following that major procedure.  With this recent surgery in mind, teams might not claim Margevicius, allowing Seattle to slip him through waivers and outright him off the 40-man roster.

Festa is also no stranger to health issues, as he missed all of the 2020 season and most of 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  With this past procedure in mind, any sort of elbow problem is especially concerning, though tendinitis is usually a relatively minor problem.  After tossing 30 2/3 innings for the M’s in 2018-19, Festa made it all the way back to the Show this season, but had only a 5.25 ERA over 12 relief innings.

Though O’Brien has only worked as a reliever over six Triple-A appearances this season, he might also factor into the Mariners’ rotation picture given his track record as a minor league starter.  Acquired from the Reds back on April 17, O’Brien has a 3.36 ERA over 353 1/3 innings in the minors, mostly in the Rays organization from 2017-19.  O’Brien made his big league debut in cup-of-coffee fashion last season, tossing 1 1/3 innings in a single game for Cincinnati.

Now in his seventh pro season, Young is lined up to make his first MLB appearance.  Young was an eighth-round pick for the Blue Jays in the 2015 draft, and has worked almost exclusively as a reliever over his 280 1/3 innings in the Toronto, Cleveland, and Seattle farm systems.  While mostly a grounder specialist during his career, Young has boosted his strikeout numbers since the canceled 2020 minor league seasons, and has a 26.1% strikeout rate over 70 Triple-A frames (though also with a 5.14 ERA in Triple-A ball).  Anthony Misiewicz is the only other left-hander in the Mariners’ bullpen, so Young should get some looks against lefty batters.

Quick Hits: Pitch Clocks, Mariners, Brash, Cubs, Baez

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After one day of enforcing new pitch clock rules in the minor leagues, supporters of faster action and shorter games will be encouraged. Per J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, yesterday’s games were more than 25 minutes shorter on average. The pitch clock is set to 14 seconds with the bases empty and 18 seconds with men on base, but equally important is the fact that batters are expected to remain in the box. The experiment will last all season long, and enforcement is expected to be stricter this year than with smaller-scale experiments of past seasons. If yesterday’s sample is any indication, these changes could very well be on their way to the Majors. With all this extra time, let’s check in elsewhere around the game…

  • When the Mariners traded for right-hander Matt Brash at the 2020 trade deadline, their interest was based on a 71-pitch sample from the 5 1/3 innings in High-A that, at that point, made up the entirety of Brash’s professional career. Because of the pandemic, he wasn’t pitching in the minor leagues where the Mariners (or Padres, for that matter) could gather more data. He was at home in Canada lifting weights, per The Athletic’s Corey Brock, who charts the path Brash took from Niagara University to the big leagues. Brash was a surprise addition to the Major League roster this season, making his theoretical breakout an inflection point that could impact the American League West. It’s too early to tell, but Brash is certainly worth keeping an eye on.
  • Javier Baez and the Cubs were on the verge of an extension when the pandemic hit in 2020, per Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago. Timing is everything, however. It was timing that allowed those young Cubs stars to converge for a 2016 title, and it was the timing of their free agencies that ultimately pushed Cubs leadership to ship them out.

Matt Brash Makes Mariners’ Rotation

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Pitching prospect Matt Brash has earned a spot in the Mariners’ rotation to begin the season, per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. The righty had his contract selected by the club in late September of last year but never got into a game, meaning it will be his MLB debut when he finally takes the hill in the coming days.

It’s been a remarkable rise for the Kingston, Ontario native over the past few years. Selected by the Padres in the fourth round of the 2019 draft, he pitched a few innings of rookie ball and A-ball that season. In 2020, of course, the minor league seasons were canceled by the pandemic, leaving Brash unable to pitch in any official games. At that year’s trade deadline, he was the player to be named later in a minor trade that saw reliever Taylor Williams go to San Diego. As noted by Kramer, Brash wasn’t considered a top 30 prospect of the Padres before the trade nor of the Mariners after.

In 2021, Brash proved that the Mariners had unearthed a hidden gem, as he threw 97 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A, putting up an ERA of 2.31 between those two levels. Although his 11.9% walk rate was a bit high, his 35.1% strikeout rate was elite. Based on that dominant performance, the club selected him to their big league roster September 28th, hoping that he could help cover some innings as they were making a push for a wild card spot, despite Brash never pitching at the Triple-A level. He didn’t end up taking the mound in those final few games, however.

Based off his excellent work last year, Brash is now considered one the 98th prospect in the game by MLB Pipeline,  comes in at #84 at ESPN and #45 at Baseball America. This spring, Brash has continued to build his reputation, throwing 9 1/3 innings with 12 strikeouts, 2 walks and just a single earned run. The new CBA features a provision called the Prospect Promotion Incentive whereby teams can earn an extra pick in the draft if a rookie-eligible player with 60 days or fewer of major league service who is included on a preseason top 100 prospect list by two or more of Baseball America, ESPN.com or MLB.com is promoted and finishes high in award voting in any year before he is eligible for arbitration. Since Brash cracked all three of those lists and has just six days of MLB service time, he could earn the M’s an extra draft pick for a Rookie of the Year win or a top three finish in MVP or Cy Young voting in his pre-arbitration seasons. If the international draft is implemented, he could earn the club a selection if second or third in Rookie of the Year, or fourth or fifth in Cy Young. A team can gain at most one PPI pick in the amateur draft and three total PPI picks for any individual prospect, two international and one amateur, with a max of one such pick per year. (Further details about the incentive are laid out by Evan Drellich of The Athletic.)

After an 89-win season in 2018, Seattle surprisingly decided to tear down their roster and enter a rebuild. After just a pair of losing seasons, they took a huge leap forward last year, winning 90 games and narrowly missing the postseason. Before the lockout, they added the reigning AL Cy Young Robbie Ray to the rotation, joining holdovers Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen and Logan Gilbert. The 23-year-old Brash will round out that group to start the season. As noted by Kramer, Brash will be the first native of Kingston, Ontario to pitch in the big leagues.

Despite all that praise for Brash, he’s actually the second-best pitching prospect in the system, with George Kirby ahead of him on most lists. However, Kirby will head back down to the minors, based on the fact that he only logged 67 2/3 innings last year. “He didn’t have a huge workload last year,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said. “It’s really important that he continues to progress. George is going to pitch for us this year, there’s no question about it. And I think he’s going to be a huge part of how our season plays out.” Should Kirby continue to develop, the Mariners will have an excellent depth option ready to go in the event of a need in the big league rotation.

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