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Mark Trumbo

Orioles, Mark Trumbo Meeting Again Today

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DEC. 6: There’s still mutual interest between the two sides, so they’ll meet again today to try to get on the same page, tweets Olney.

DEC. 5, 2:55pm: Olney tweets the Orioles were comfortable in the four-year, $52-55MM range but backed off when Trumbo’s camp countered between $75-80MM. ESPN’s Jayson Stark hears a bit differently tweeting that the Orioles were only willing to offer three years and an option, however.

2:06pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (on Twitter) that the Orioles don’t get the sense that they’re close in talks with Trumbo, and they could move on to other targets at this point.

12:54pm: The Orioles have extended a four-year offer to free-agent slugger Mark Trumbo, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter links). While the value of Baltimore’s offer isn’t known, the first baseman/outfielder is said to be seeking $80MM.

That price sounds like a non-starter for most organizations, and that likely includes the O’s. Per Kubatko, Trumbo’s side has already signaled a willingness to move down to the $70MM to $75MM range while also taking a backloaded salary structure. But that’s still arguably too much for the thirty-year-old slugger, who’s also said to be seeking a no-trade clause.

Kubatko notes that the O’s aren’t going to bite on the no-trade request, though it seems it’s still possible that the sides will work something out. It remains to be seen whether Baltimore will move up to Trumbo’s apparent asking price, or whether interest from other quarters will emerge at or near that level.

While Trumbo did lead all of baseball with 47 home runs in 2016, power is in abundant supply on this year’s free-agent market — particularly with Chris Carter now available. Carter, of course, was cut loose despite being arbitration-eligible at a projected $8.1MM arbitration salary. His .222/.321/.499 batting line wasn’t all that much less productive than Trumbo’s .256/.316/.533 slash, particularly once park effects are accounted for, and the two have rather similar lifetime numbers as well. It does seem that the O’s are at least somewhat comfortable playing Trumbo in the outfield, but it’s eminently arguable that neither player should be allowed to roam past the infield dirt.

Rockies Interested In Encarnacion, Trumbo, Abreu, Carter, Moreland

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The Rockies are casting a wide net in their search for a first baseman, as GM Jeff Bridich said the team is considering a large array of options, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes.  The list includes such expensive free agents as Edwin Encarnacion and Mark Trumbo to more affordable open-market names like Chris Carter or Mitch Moreland.

Intriguingly, Harding also reports that the Rockies have been in contact with the White Sox about a possible trade for Jose Abreu.  Talks haven’t advanced beyond the preliminary stage, and sources tell Harding that the Sox want multiple prospects from Colorado in exchange for the Cuban slugger.

This is the first concrete link between Encarnacion and Colorado this winter, though since the longtime Blue Jays slugger had been reportedly been contacted by at least a couple of NL teams interested in him as a full-time first baseman, the Rockies were a logical candidate since they’re one of the few National League teams with a first base vacancy.  Colorado’s interest in Trumbo was initially reported over the weekend.

Signing Encarnacion or Trumbo would be an expensive endeavor for the Rockies, and either would cost the club the 11th overall pick in the 2017 draft, as both Encarnacion and Trumbo rejected qualifying offers.  Carter and Moreland would cost much less, likely just one-year contracts.  While neither of that duo carries Encarnacion or even Trumbo’s track record, it could be argued that Carter or Moreland could at least come close to replicating what the two higher-tier free agents could produce in Coors Field but at a fraction of the price and without any cost of a draft pick.

As Harding notes, the Rockies have shown past interest in both Trumbo and Abreu.  Dealing for the latter would be an interesting middle ground between the free agent choices, though it would come at a cost to the Rockies in both minor league talent and money.  Abreu recently opted into arbitration eligibility, so while Colorado would have him under control for three more years, the first baseman would come with a significant price tag.

Abreu has delivered very good numbers in his first three MLB seasons, delivering a .299/.360/.515 slash line and 91 homers over 1985 big league plate appearances.  His last two years weren’t as impressive as his breakout Rookie Of The Year campaign in 2014, however, and Abreu has experienced declines in his home run and hard-hit ball rates.

The Rockies are also known to still be considering a reunion with Mark Reynolds.  Since the team is being so comprehensive in its search, Harding figures that names like Mike Napoli, Adam Lind, Logan Morrison and perhaps any available first basemen are also under consideration.

Rangers Showing Interest In Soler, Trumbo, Gomez

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4:05pm: The Rangers are also interested in trading for Cubs outfielder Jorge Soler, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan reports (via Twitter).  Soler has become something of a forgotten man in a crowded Cubs outfield, though he is still just 24 and under contract through 2020.

3:22pm: The Rangers are showing some interest in Mark Trumbo, tweets Yahoo’s Jeff Passan, but it’s not clear exactly how strong the interest is. Texas is looking for a right-handed bat, though, he notes. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, meanwhile, tweets that he believes Carlos Gomez is the Rangers’ “preferred plug-and-play” option in center field, but the length of the contract he’s seeking plays a role in the team’s interest. Per Grant, the matter may come down to whether Gomez is willing to take a two-year deal right now or if he wants to seek a three-year deal elsewhere (and perhaps see if Texas is willing to match that offer, if he does find it).

Trumbo’s asking price is reportedly considerably steeper than the Gomez price implied by Grant, as Trumbo is said to have countered an offer of $52-55MM over four years from the Orioles with a $75-80MM asking price. The Orioles balked at that lofty ask and, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney, are prepared to move on from Trumbo and pursue other options. It’s tough to envision the Rangers (or any club), topping $70MM for Trumbo this offseason.

It seems clear that Texas GM Jon Daniels and his staff are looking around at right-handed bats, as they’ve also been connected to Andrew McCutchen in trade talks. However, it doesn’t appear that they’re 100 percent closed off to signing a left-handed hitter, as Grant tweeted this morning that they’ve maintained contact with Mitch Moreland. However, things will only work with Moreland if he’s willing to wait around for a bit while the Rangers explore some other priorities.

Dan Duquette On Trumbo, Machado, Britton

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The Orioles have “made a couple offers to” free agent slugger Mark Trumbo, Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette told reporters (including Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko), though despite ongoing talks, an agreement has yet to be reached.  “We’ve had several conversations with Mark Trumbo, but we haven’t been able to cinch a deal with him….We’ve had a dialogue going with them for several weeks,” Duquette said.

Though there was mutual interest in a continued relationship between the two sides prior to the end of the season, there hasn’t been much news about Trumbo and Orioles until now.  Duquette said during the GM Meetings that the club was looking to prioritize defense and add a left-handed hitting outfielder, neither of which describe what Trumbo brings to the table. Duquette cited outfield defense again today, though Trumbo could also fill Baltimore’s hole at designated hitter.  As I noted in my free agent profile of Trumbo, his value could greatly improve if a team uses him in a first base/DH role rather than as a corner outfielder.

Right field is the specific need for the O’s, as Duquette said Hyun Soo Kim and Joey Rickard could handle left field in a platoon and the team hasn’t put much thought into moving Chris Davis from first base into right.  As for other internal options, Duquette also cited youngster Trey Mancini as having the hitting potential to possibly handle regular DH duty.

Trumbo has received some interest from the Rockies this winter, though Colorado would have to give up a hefty draft pick price (the 11th overall selection in next year’s draft) to sign Trumbo, who rejected the Orioles’ qualifying offer.  That same QO status is a consideration for the O’s as well as they explore re-signing Trumbo, Duquette noted, as is the changing nature of the qualifying offer system in future years under the new collective bargaining agreement.

Aside from Trumbo, Duquette also discussed such topics as the team’s needs in right field, catcher (either as a starter or platoon partner with Caleb Joseph) and the potential use of the upcoming Rule 5 draft to procure more young talent.

Duquette also denied a rumor about an extension between Manny Machado and the Orioles, saying that the two sides hadn’t had any talks.  Most teams wait until after the bulk of the offseason work is complete before entering into extension negotiations, so we might not hear about anything with Machado until Spring Training at the earliest.  The superstar third baseman is projected by MLBTR to earn $11.2MM in arbitration next season, and the O’s control Machado through the 2018 campaign.  With Machado hitting the open market at age 26, the sky is the limit for the size of a potential extension — Baltimore would likely require something north of a $250MM guarantee.

In a radio appearance with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link), the executive VP also commented on the attention being drawn by closer Zach Britton.  “There’s a lot of interest in Zach Britton. Personally, I like Zach Britton on our club, but there are teams interested,” Duquette said.  Britton is also due for a hefty arbitration payday ($11.4MM) in the wake of his excellent 2016 season, and there has been speculation that the O’s could sell high on Britton now given the large demand for relief pitching this offseason.  One would think it would take a pretty significant offer to pry Britton out of Baltimore, as Duquette has said both here and in prior interviews that he wants to keep the closer.

Rockies Interested In Mark Trumbo

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The Rockies are showing interest in free agent outfielder/first baseman Mark Trumbo, reports MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, who adds that there will be further “clarity” on his market during next week’s winter meetings (Twitter link).

Trumbo spent the majority of 2016 as a right fielder with the Orioles, and the Rockies already have at least two starting-caliber corner options in Carlos Gonzalez and David Dahl. On the other hand, Colorado has a gaping hole at first base, with its 2016 contributors having combined for the majors’ fourth-lowest fWAR (minus-1.3). Three of those players – Mark Reynolds, Stephen Cardullo and Ben Paulsen – are now free agents, while penciled-in starter Gerardo Parra is normally an outfielder and is coming off a miserable season. After hitting an unsightly .253/.271/.399 with a paltry nine walks in 381 plate appearances, the Rockies would be hard-pressed to count on Parra as an everyday solution anywhere.

Unlike Parra, Trumbo thrived at times this past season. The former Angel, Diamondback and Mariner slashed .256/.316/.533 with a major league-best 47 home runs in 667 trips to the plate in his first (and only?) year with the O’s. Trumbo faded in the second half of the season, however, with a .214/.284/.470 line in 292 post-All-Star break PAs. His game also comes with baserunning and defensive limitations, but he’s certainly a better fit as an everyday first baseman than a regular outfielder, as he admitted to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com last winter.

While Trumbo’s power and offense-friendly Coors Field would likely serve as an enticing mix, Colorado would have to surrender quite a bit to secure the soon-to-be 31-year-old. With Trumbo having rejected a qualifying offer from the Orioles, it would cost the Rockies a first-round pick – the 11th overall selection in the 2017 draft – to sign him. Both that and his next contract (MLBTR projects a four-year, $60MM deal) would combine for a steep price for the Rockies, who are set to spend a franchise-record amount next season.

Mark Trumbo Will Reject Qualifying Offer

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“Indications are” that Orioles slugger Mark Trumbo will reject his qualifying offer, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman, and Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets a similar sentiment, calling the market for Trumbo “bustling” and adding that he can be “cross[ed] off the list of players who might be inclined to accept a qualifying offer.” SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets more definitively that Trumbo will reject. After leading the Majors with 47 home runs, Trumbo has never seemed to be an especially likely candidate to accept the qualifying offer. Some teams, undoubtedly, will be scared off by his fairly one-dimensional nature, but power is always an in-demand commodity even in spite of the league-wide increase in home runs in 2016.

Mark Trumbo

Trumbo, 31 in January, hit .256/.316/.533 in 667 plate appearances this past season, adding 27 doubles and a triple to his MLB-leading home run total. However, Baltimore deployed Trumbo as its primary right fielder, and while he has plenty of corner outfield experience from his days with the D-backs, the results have never been pretty, as one might expect for a player that is listed at 6’4″ and 235 pounds. In 791 outfield innings this year (all but eight of which came in right field), Trumbo graded out to 7.7 runs below average, per Ultimate Zone Rating, and an even less-flattering 11 below average, per Defensive Runs Saved. He also walked at a slightly below-average 7.6 percent and struck out in 25.5 percent of his plate appearances, hence the middle batting average and on-base percentage.

All of that said, Trumbo’s bat should still get him paid fairly handsomely. He’s topped 30 homers three times in his career to date (and fell one big fly shy of that mark in 2011), and while he’s never been a great defensive outfielder, he’s received solid marks at first base when playing there in the past. Trumbo’s presence on teams that have had established first basemen — Albert Pujols with the Angels, Paul Goldschmidt with the D-backs and Chris Davis with the Orioles — has forced him to the outfield grass with regularity (as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently noted in Trumbo’s free agent profile), but could be a nice fit on a team with a vacancy at first base and/or designated hitter.

MLBTR ranked Trumbo eighth on our top 50 free agent list and projected a four-year, $60MM contract for the 2016 home run king. The Orioles have expressed interest in retaining Trumbo, though GM Dan Duquette did caution that he wasn’t sure they’d be able to afford him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Orioles Prioritizing Outfield Additions

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NOV. 10: Josh Reddick is one potential target, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. Baltimore is “pursuing” Reddick, according to Morosi, though there are no indications that the team is in any type of serious negotiations this early in the offseason. Reddick has, in the past, carried a strong defensive reputation, though metrics on him took a step back in 2016. Nonetheless, his left-handed bat would fit the Orioles’ previously reported desire. Reddick should cost less than Trumbo, whom Duquette noted may be too expensive to retain (see below), but he could still command somewhere in the vicinity of $10-12MM per season, so he may not be that much more affordable on an annual basis.

NOV. 9: Ghiroli tweets today that Duquette said he’s already had multiple trade discussions at the GM Meetings and is seeking a left-handed-hitting outfielder. FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that their ideal target would also be a defensive upgrade, citing Brett Gardner and Ender Inciarte as the type of outfielder the O’s would like to acquire (though not specifically linking the Orioles to either outfielder).

NOV. 8: The Orioles’ top priority this winter will be adding outfield help, general manager Dan Duquette told reporters at the GM Meetings today (Twitter links via MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli). While the team’s rotation was clearly its primary downfall in 2016, Duquette said he’s comfortable heading into 2017 with the current depth he has. That includes right-handers Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, Yovani Gallardo and Ubaldo Jimenez as well as left-hander Wade Miley. Additionally, the team has some safety nets in the form of righties Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright and the arbitration-eligible Vance Worley.

Baltimore’s outfield picture is decidedly less certain at the moment. Adam Jones, of course, will reprise his role as the Orioles’ center fielder next year, but the corner picture is murkier. Hyun Soo Kim showed rell enough in his rookie season to see an increased number of at-bats in 2017, but the O’s didn’t seem to feel remotely comfortable letting Kim face lefties, as the former Korea Baseball Organization star recorded just 22 of his 345 plate appearances against a southpaw pitcher. Kim, it would seem, required a platoon partner at the very least, and other corner is even more wide open.

Mark Trumbo served as Baltimore’s primary right fielder in 2016, but Duquette suggested today that the team might not be able to afford to retain Trumbo following last offseason’s aggressive spending on the likes of Chris Davis, Darren O’Day and Gallardo (plus the trade-deadline addition of Miley). Baltimore is also facing sizable arbitration raises for Manny Machado and Zach Britton, among others, so it’s not necessarily surprising that Duquette’s resources could be limited this winter. And, if that’s the case, then the report of Baltimore’s interest in Ian Desmond from earlier this morning may be largely inconsequential, as Desmond figures to be in the same financial stratosphere as Trumbo — if not an even higher one.

Trumbo is one of many corner outfield options on the market this winter, though many teams figure to look at him as a first baseman. If the Orioles need to add a more affordable outfielder to their 2017 mix, the likes of Michael Saunders, Jon Jay and Matt Joyce are among the players that landed on MLBTR’s list of top 50 free agents yesterday, though Joyce and Saunders could present similar platoon issues to Kim. Jay, meanwhile, has fairly even platoon splits throughout his career, although his ability to play center field could lead to some competition for his services.

Astros Interested In Brian McCann

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The possibility of a Brian McCann trade has been speculated about for months, driven in large part by the emergence of Gary Sanchez, and Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports that the Yanks have already identified a potential trade partner. Meanwhile, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Astros are interested in McCann, though it’s not definitively clear that Houston is the unnamed team referenced by Feinsand. It’s worth noting that neither report is an indicator that a deal is close at this time, though Feinsand’s report does seem to suggest that GM Brian Cashman has had some level of productive talks.

McCann, 32, has full no-trade protection and will need to approve any trade, and Cashman says he hasn’t spoken to his catcher about the possibility of anything yet. “[McCann’s agent, B.B. Abbott] said, ’Keep me posted; why don’t you guys go through the process and if you have something you need to talk to us about, give us a call,” Cashman explained. “…He hasn’t told me no on anything. I do have a personal belief of what’s more workable than others.”

Per Feinsand, the Astros are “desperate” to add both a catcher and a left-handed bat, so the fit certainly makes plenty of sense. Houston’s lineup is pretty heavy in terms of right-handed hitters, with George Springer, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis and Yulieski Gurriel all hitting from the right side of the dish. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow In addition to McCann’s no-trade protection, his contractual status could serve as an impediment. The Astros may not be keen on paying McCann the full $34MM he’s owed over the next two seasons, though the Yankees could include some cash to help offset the financial burden for Houston. Furthermore, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow told Morosi earlier today that he foresees the team’s payroll escalating next season, so Houston should have the funds to make the move work if Luhnow and Cashman can agree on a prospect return and if McCann approves the deal.

Houston is currently set to lose Jason Castro to free agency, leaving Gattis and Max Stassi as the primary catching options within the organization. McCann would give the ’Stros a left-handed bat to replace Castros — and a more productive one, at that. Castro was solid against right-handed pitchers this past season but hit just .210/.307/.377 overall, while McCann provided a much more robust .242/.335/.413 slash and has hit at least 20 homers in nine straight seasons.

As for the Yankees, if they do ultimately find a trade for McCann, they could pursue free-agent DH options, according to Feinsand. He lists shorter-term options like Carlos Beltran, Kendrys Morales and Mike Napoli as more likely candidates than Edwin Encarnacion or Mark Trumbo, who could both command four-year deals this winter (and perhaps five, in Encarnacion’s case).

Free Agent Profile: Mark Trumbo

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The move to hitter-friendly Camden Yards took Mark Trumbo’s slugging to a whole new level in 2016, and now we’ll see how his homer-centric game will play on the open market.

Strengths/Pros

In a word, power.  Trumbo’s 47 home runs led the majors last season, as he became just the fourth Oriole in history (following Frank Robinson, Brady Anderson and Chris Davis) to go deep at least 47 times in a single season.  Trumbo’s .533 slugging percentage last year easily topped his career .458 SLG from 2010-15, though it certainly wasn’t his only big year at the plate, having averaged 32 homers per year with the Angels from 2011-13.

His huge leap in production earned him American League Comeback Player Of The Year honors, though Trumbo was maybe somewhat of a curious choice given that his 2015 numbers weren’t bad.  He was also named to the All-Star team, the second time he had received a nod to the Midseason Classic during his career.

Trumbo’s career splits headed into this year indicated that he hit lefties a bit better than righties, which is normal for a right-handed hitter.  Curiously, 2016 saw Trumbo deliver some massive reverse splits — he posted a .932 OPS in 501 PA against right-handed pitching but just a .608 OPS against southpaws.  This one-year gap was large enough that it effectively balanced his career splits, so on paper, Trumbo has been equally productive against all pitchers over his career.  Trumbo’s BABIP luck against righties (.316) wasn’t nearly as glaring as his lack of fortune against lefties (.167), so it could be argued there’s a better chance Trumbo’s numbers against left-handers improve in 2017 than there is of him coming substantially back to earth against righties.Mark Trumbo

Trumbo is often considered a defensive liability, and indeed, his career UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved totals as a corner outfielder are pretty ugly.  In his only two seasons as a primary first baseman, however, Trumbo’s glovework was more than solid — +9 DRS and 5.2 UZR/150 in 2011 and +2 DRS and 10.5 UZR/150 in 2013.  His defensive numbers at first have been below-average over the last three years, though he has only 566 innings at the position in that time, as Trumbo was largely blocked by Davis in Baltimore and Paul Goldschmidt in Arizona.

If used at first, Trumbo’s metrics indicate that he could provide notable value at the position.  If a team has needs at both first and in either corner outfield, Trumbo could handle left or right as long as the team was willing to sacrifice fielding for power.  Of course, American League teams can bypass defensive questions altogether by pursuing Trumbo as a designated hitter.

Weaknesses/Cons

Trumbo is almost the definition of the all-or-nothing slugger, capable of bashing homers at an outstanding rate but not bringing much else to the table offensively.  His .256 batting average and .316 on-base percentage last year were only mild increases over his career averages in both categories.  Not only is Trumbo not getting on base, he’s also making a lot of unproductive outs — he ranks tenth among all hitters in strikeouts (848) and 14th in pop-ups (124) since the start of the 2011 season.

Between the lack of baserunning, defense and all-around hitting, Trumbo’s value is limited even despite his slugging prowess.  His 1.6 bWAR in 2016 was the lowest of any player who had ever delivered a 47-homer season.

Part of the issue was that Trumbo did most of his damage before the All-Star break and badly tailed off in the last half of the season.  While he kept up the power throughout the year, Trumbo hit .288/.341/.582 before the break and just .214/.284/.470 afterwards.

Health-wise, Trumbo has suffered stress fractures in both of his feet over the last five years.  His break in his right foot occurred near the end of the 2011 season and didn’t cause him to miss much time, though he was limited to just 88 games in 2014 thanks to a fracture in his left foot.  Trumbo also had a plantar fasciitis issue that same year, which could’ve possibly factored into the injury.  He has been pretty durable over the last two years, however, and a move to regular first base or DH duties would make things much easier on his feet.

The Orioles have extended Trumbo a qualifying offer, and assuming he rejects it, his new team will have to surrender their highest-eligible draft pick in order to sign him.  (Or, if he goes back to Baltimore, they’ll give up the chance to add a compensatory pick.)  Trumbo’s ability to thump will definitely attract attention, though some clubs will balk at giving up a draft pick to sign a player with Trumbo’s limitations, preferring to chase other power options available at a lower price and without QO compensation attached.

Personal

Trumbo, born in Anaheim in January 1986, was drafted out of high school by his hometown Angels in the 18th round in 2004.  He got himself on the prospect radar with a 32-homer campaign in high A-ball and Double-A in 2008 and then a 36-homer/.945 OPS season in Triple-A in 2010 earned him his first big league promotion that September.

When Kendrys Morales infamously broke his leg jumping on home plate during a walkoff homer celebration, his extended rehab gave Trumbo the Angels’ first base job at the start of the 2011 season.  This ended up being a season-long assignment once complications from Morales’ injury sidelined him for the entire year, and Trumbo rose to the occasion by hitting .254/.291/.477 with 29 home runs over 573 PA, a performance that earned him a runner-up finish to Jeremy Hellickson in AL Rookie Of The Year voting.

Albert Pujols’ arrival in Los Angeles began Trumbo’s position carousel, as the Halos tried him in left, right and even a brief dalliance at third base, though Trumbo ended up spending a lot of time back at first in 2013 due to Pujols’ injury problems.  Ultimately, the Angels saw him as an expendable piece, trading him to the D’Backs in December 2013 as part of a very notable three-team deal with the White Sox that also sent Adam Eaton to Chicago and both Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs to Anaheim.

Injuries and some ill-conceived usage as a left fielder led to an unmemorable stint in Arizona, and Trumbo found himself on the move again in June 2015, this time sent to Seattle as part of a six-player trade.  This deal ended up looking good for the D’-backs (Welington Castillo has gone on to become their regular catcher) and it seems like the Mariners came up short in another Trumbo deal when they swapped the slugger and C.J. Riefenhauser to the O’s last December for Steve Clevenger.

It was in Baltimore that Trumbo finally seemed to unlock the potential that so many other clubs had been hoping for him to find on their watch.  One might argue that Trumbo could be a candidate to accept the one-year, $17.2MM qualifying offer from the Orioles due to his poor second half, lack of a well-rounded game and the possibility of the QO hurting his market, but I disagree.  If anything, perhaps Trumbo will be more eager for the security of a long-term deal given how he’s gone through three trades in as many years.

Market

There are several other first base/right field/DH types on the free agent market this year, though Trumbo has a few advantages over most of his peers.  Trumbo is entering his age-31 season, which makes him markedly younger than several of the other bats who share a similar heavy-hitting but defensively-lacking profile.  Trumbo’s representatives from Wasserman can argue that their client is a true everyday player, unlike many other hitters who carry significant platoon splits.

While Trumbo takes pride in his effort in the outfield, he himself noted last winter that he is a better defensive option at first than he is in right.  He’ll likely continue to market himself as an outfield candidate since multi-position versatility is an attractive commodity, though one wonders if Trumbo himself will prefer to seek out first base opportunities rather than potentially suffer through another value-deflating year chasing fly balls.

Edwin Encarnacion is the biggest name in the first base/DH market this winter, and it stands to reason that teams who either miss out on Encarnacion or couldn’t afford him in the first place could turn to Trumbo as an alternative.  The Blue Jays, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox or Astros are potential fits, as are maybe the Royals as a DH-only option if Trumbo’s price tag significantly drops.  A National League team would have to believe that Trumbo can handle an everyday first base role, and if so, that opens the door to the Marlins as possible candidates.  The Rockies could also be a fit, though one wonders if they’d be willing to give up the 11th overall pick in the draft for any qualifying offer free agent, Trumbo included.

A return to the Orioles isn’t out of the question, as both Trumbo and the team have expressed a mutual interest in continuing their relationship.  The O’s need help in both corner spots and could offer Trumbo a full-time DH slot if Pedro Alvarez is not re-signed.  On the other hand, as I noted in my Orioles Offseason Outlook piece, Baltimore already possesses quite a few power hitters with swing-and-miss tendencies, plus payroll could be an issue.  Dan Duquette had has a knack for picking up sluggers at a low price only to watch them blossom at Camden Yards, so he might seek out another undervalued bat rather than pay a significant price to retain Trumbo.

Expected Contract

While Trumbo certainly has his flaws, he somewhat strikes me as a player who has simply yet to find his ideal role.  He spent much of his early career in pitcher-friendly ballparks in Anaheim and Seattle, and teams have consistently miscast him as an outfielder when it seems like he would be at least a passable first baseman.  A good fit is often as much about hiding shortcomings as it is about emphasizing strengths, and Trumbo could very well continue to deliver 40-plus homers if he lands on the right team with the right idea about how to use him.

As Yahoo’s Jeff Passan noted in a recent column, however, slugging-only players like Trumbo could be impacted by the simple fact that Major League Baseball experienced a huge spike in home runs in 2016.  Power is seemingly no longer the rare commodity it was even one offseason ago, though obviously, 47-homer power is still very hard to find.  Even with the qualifying offer and the glut of other bats on the market, MLB Trade Rumors sees Trumbo landing a deal in the neighborhood of four years and $60MM this offseason.

Photo courtesy of Brad Penner/USA Today Sports Images

Orioles Don’t Make Qualifying Offer To Matt Wieters

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The Orioles have made a qualifying offer to slugger Mark Trumbo but have passed on the chance to do the same with catcher Matt Wieters. Baltimore’s decision on Trumbo was reported by Roch Kubtko of MASNsports.com (via Twitter), with Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter) reporting on the decision not to extend the $17.2MM, single-season offer to Wieters. (Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball first tweeted that it was unlikely Wieters would receive the qualifying offer.)

Trumbo represented an easy call after he launched a league-leading 42 home runs. The 30-year-old continues to strike out a ton and isn’t much of an on-base threat — he ran up a .316 OBP last year and sits at just .303 for his career. He’s also a dreadful defender in the outfield, though he generally rates well at first and delivers enough power to represent a regular DH option. Ultimately, the long ball plays well in free agency, and he’s young enough that he ought to find multiple years in free agency even after declining the QO (as is widely expected).

It was a somewhat trickier call with regard to Wieters, long the franchise’s top backstop. Baltimore was surprised when he took the QO last year, but perhaps wasn’t too disappointed with the chance to retain him on a one-year commitment. The immediate outlook still cries out for a veteran receiver — prospect Chance Sisco probably isn’t ready, and Caleb Joseph had a terrible 2016 season — but that doesn’t mean the club is interested in taking on that kind of salary this time around.

Wieters, 30, struggled through what may be his final year with the O’s. The switch hitter ended with a .243/.302/.409 slash line over 464 plate appearances. Though he did hit 17 home runs, he fell well shy of the above-average offensive numbers he posted in prior years. Wieters also didn’t receive strong framing reviews, though he was solid with his arm by measure of Baseball Prospectus.

Still, without the QO weighing him down, Wieters will have a chance at a strong, multi-year deal in free agency. With Wilson Ramos injured, Wieters and Jason Castro are probably the top two candidates for teams looking to fill in immediately behind the dish.

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