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Mark Mulder

Rangers Rotation Options

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Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, via MercuryNews.com, is reporting that Mark Mulder has received an offer from Jon Daniels and the Texas Rangers. The Rangers were rumored to be in the forefront of the Barry Zito race, but seem to be coming to grips with the idea that they may not be able to commit to what Zito will probably yield this off-season. The Rangers have also shown interest in Andy Pettitte, but that seems like a bit of a long shot with the Astros and Yankees as the favorites to land him.

If the Rangers could actually pull off signing Mulder and Zito in the coming days/weeks, they’d be added to a rotation that currently includes Vincente Padilla and Kevin Millwood. First, they’ve got to fend off the Mets, and all the other suitors, for the rights to Zito.

By Adam Howe

NOTE: I apologize for the typos. Evan Grant writes for the Dallas Morning News, but the link went to the MercuryNews.com site. Also, obviously, Jon Daniels is the Rangers’ GM, not Jeff Daniels.

Jays Considering Barajas, Mulder

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Here are notes from the blog of Paul Hoynes, Indians beat writer for the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  These were posted yesterday.

Hoynes says the Blue Jays are talking to Rod Barajas and have some interest in Mark Mulder.  Even if they signed both, the Jays would still need to come up with a shortstop and one decent starter.

The Tribe is expected to bid on lefty Kei Igawa, who will be posted next week.  If they win, the Indians, like the White Sox, would be six deep in their starting rotation.  A good kind of problem.

Mark Mulder To The D-Rays?

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Explain to me again why the Devil Rays would have Mark Mulder on the radar?  Does this make any sense to anyone?  Mark Mulder.  The guy who was just getting by in the NL Central with a great defense behind him, when healthy.  That guy.  Coming off serious shoulder surgery and pitching in the AL East.

Something tells me Gregg Clifton isn’t searching for a $1MM deal for Mulder.  How is this one going to return positive value for any team, especially one battling the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays all the time?  Save the $5 million; there’s got to be a better way to use it in the future.  Hell, that money would be better spent on anger management classes for Elijah and Delmon.

Gotham Baseball: Mets and Yankees Rumors

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Check out the latest from Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball.  A summary is below.

Healey’s Cubs source indicates Mark Prior and Alex Rodriguez could be the main pieces of a trade.  That’d be a tough sell for Brian Cashman so I’m sure the Cubs would have to spice up such an offer.  Healey’s source mentions Mark DeRosa as a possible A-Rod replacement in New York.

A couple of names associated with the Mets include Ray Durham and Mark Mulder.  Durham is a new one for me, though the Mulder info jives with what I heard last week.  I also have strong indications from another source that a return to Oakland is "very likely" for Mulder, however.  It’ll come down to the dollars: if Mulder takes injury/incentive type money, he goes to Oakland.  Otherwise, the Mets should be the top suitor.

Healey and I are also in agreement on the Mets’ minimal interest in Julio Lugo and their intent to hang onto Lastings Milledge.

Finally, Healey’s sources call for a Tom Glavine/Greg Maddux reunion in Atlanta.  I had heard the same about Glavine, though this weekend’s New York Post mentioned that Glavine doesn’t want to give the Braves a huge discount and Atlanta’s payroll is pretty tight as long as it includes Andruw Jones.

The Hot Stove hasn’t officially begun, but it’s going to be another exciting winter.

UPDATE: Today’s AJC indicates that the Braves would hesitate to pay Glavine even $10MM. 

MLB Free Agents 2007: Mark Mulder

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After reading Joe Strauss’s article today in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, I got to thinking about impending free agent Mark Mulder.  The standout quote:

"Mulder is certain to seek a package with higher average annual value than the five-year, $55 million contract A.J. Burnett received last December from the Toronto Blue Jays."

I don’t doubt that he’ll want and expect this kind of money, based on his career totals of 98 victories, a 3.87 ERA, and a 1.30 WHIP before age 29.  The problem with his contract (and most free agent contracts) is that he’ll be paid largely on what he’s done and not what he will do.  Burnett at least has upside.

I’m not here to bash Mulder; I know he’s still a solid innings guy and that he’s become one of the more extreme groundball pitchers in the game as his strikeout rate has declined.  He’s a decent five-win pitcher, akin to the current version of Brad Radke.

I don’t know why teams continue to overpay for this kind of production, but they do.  If you look at Mulder’s projected Marginal Value Over Replacement Player, his next five-year contract could have an annual average close to his value for the entire length of the contract.  In other words, he might make $12MM in 2007 despite being worth less than $16MM over the entire period of 2007-2011.

It’s understood that that’s the way free agency works and you have to pay a premium to get decent starting pitching.  But Mulder’s next contract looks like it will be one of the most egregious examples of a free agent mistake.  If the market overvalues starters, shouldn’t teams find other ways to acquire them or else just build a dominant offense at the expense of pitching? 

Guys like Brad Radke, Mike Mussina, Kerry Wood, Andy Pettitte, and Jason Schmidt should also hit the market after the 2006 season.  The Schmidt Derby should be a wild one, especially if he returns to form in 2006 as I’ve projected.

Trade Candidates Part 1

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With the hot stove not all that hot at the moment, I thought I’d run down some guys who could be traded between now and July 31st in an attempt to peer into the future.  Part 1 of the series will focus on some of the players in their contract year.

Barry Bonds is unlikely to be dealt, given that the Giants have pinned most of their offensive hopes on him.  But if, for some reason, the team is out of contention in July and Bonds is looking more awful than usual in the field, a deal to the AL could be in the cards.  Adding Bonds at DH could mean 4-5 extra wins in the second half alone, so I’d expect a big bounty even with his $18MM salary and impending free agency.

We’re all pretty much assuming Jose Contreras will be dealt.  Some say it’d be most prudent for the Sox to wait til spring training and take stock before sending him off to the Mets, Phillies, or wherever else.  On the other hand, if there was ever a time to sell high, it’s right now.

One name I haven’t seen thrown about in trade rumors at all is Greg Maddux.  I assume it’s because he’s over 40 and makes $9MM in 2006, but Mad Dog could be a big help to a contender at the deadline.  I’ve projected a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP; he’s got plenty left.  Even if the Cubs had to eat a few mil, it’d make more sense to trade Maddux than Jerome Williams.  If the health of Wood, Prior, and Miller works out in their favor the Cubs could have a surplus.

Jason Marquis is projected to post a 4.43 ERA in 200 innings.  He’d be serviceable as rental for the season, and he’s still on the right side of 30.  I’m not sure which teams will be chomping at the bit to give him the three year, $21MM extension he’ll require, but someone will.

Mark Mulder is also under 30, though he’s shown some ugly trends over the past three seasons.  It’ll be interesting to see how Walt Jocketty views Mulder – perhaps Mulder will take the St. Louis discount to keep that top-notch defense behind him?

It seems that Andy Pettitte wouldn’t be dealt by the Astros midseason pretty much no matter what.  Even when the Astros have been counted out they’ve made the playoffs, so it’d be impossible to justify trading Pettitte to the fanbase.

I’m fairly certain the Cubs will sign Juan Pierre to a long-term deal.  Especially if he hits .309 as projected and impresses the old hands with his bunting skills and work ethic.  Politically, Jim Hendry almost has to keep Pierre around in case one of the three pitchers sent to Florida pans out.

Jason Schmidt could be a hot commodity, but, like Bonds, is a long shot to be dealt.  I think the Giants would look for a young bat in return.

More impending free agents and trade candidates to come…

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