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Marcus Stroman

Yankees Sign Marcus Stroman

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The Yankees’ rotation has gotten a boost, as the club has announced that they have signed veteran righty Marcus Stroman. It’s a two-year deal with a conditional player option for 2026 that reportedly comes with a $37MM guarantee. The 2026 vesting option would become an $18MM player option if he reaches 140 innings in 2025. Stroman is represented by Roc Nation Sports.

Stroman, 33 in May, was a first-round pick by the Blue Jays in the 2012 draft. A fast riser to the big leagues, the right-hander made is debut in 2014 and performed well in his rookie season with a 3.65 ERA and 2.84 FIP in 130 2/3 innings of work. Though Stroman was limited to just four starts in his sophomore season by a torn ACL, the righty established himself as a fixture in Toronto’s rotation in the following years.

By the time the club shipped him to the Mets in a deal at the 2019 trade deadline, Stroman had compiled a solid 3.76 ERA and 3.60 FIP across 135 appearances (129 starts) in a Blue Jays uniform. The right-hander’s tenure in New York was somewhat shortened by him opting out of the shortened 2020 campaign, but Stroman pitched well when on the mound for the Mets, including a 3.02 ERA and 3.49 FIP across a league-leading 33 starts during the 2021 season.

Having accepted a qualifying offer to return to the Mets in 2021, Stroman entered the 2021-22 offseason as an unrestricted free agent and found a new team quickly, agreeing to a three-year deal with the Cubs just before the players were locked out in early December. Stroman pitched solidly in his first season as a Cub, with a 3.50 ERA and 3.76 FIP across 138 2/3 innings of work. Entering the 2023 campaign, it appeared the righty had taken a step forward at the age of 32 as he pitched to an incredible 2.28 ERA with a 3.33 FIP in 98 2/3 innings of work across the first 16 starts of his season.

Unfortunately, things came apart from there as Stroman allowed a whopping 28 runs (24 earned) in just 27 innings across his next six starts before heading to the injured list with a hip issue. His stay on the shelf was extended by a rib cartilage fracture and by the time he returned to action in mid-September, the veteran righty was only able to muster eight middling innings of performance over his final four appearances in a Cubs uniform. Despite the rough second half, Stroman nonetheless finished the 2023 campaign with solid overall numbers, including a 3.95 ERA and 3.58 FIP in 136 2/3 innings of work.

Likely with his sights on a multiyear deal, Stroman opted of the final year and $21MM of his deal with the Cubs, returning to free agency. Stroman’s free agent market remained quiet for much of the offseason, though he was connected to the Royals before Kansas City ultimately opted to add right-handers Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo last month. The righty’s market reportedly picked up as the calendar flipped to 2024, with Heyman noting that the Red Sox, Orioles, Giants, and Angels were among the teams interested in the veteran’s services outside of the Bronx.  Ultimately, Stroman’s contract matches well with the two-year, $44MM prediction MLBTR made back on November 6th.

Now, Stroman is set to return to New York to pitch on the other side of the Subway Series. The right-hander adds some veteran stability to the club’s rotation behind ace Gerrit Cole after southpaws Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon both produced uneven, injury-marred campaigns in 2023. As things stand, right-handed youngster Clarke Schmidt figures to round out the club’s starting quintet after producing solid back-end results across 33 appearances (32 starts) with the Yankees last year.

While Stroman has never been much of a strikeout artist, typically punching out around 20% of batters faced in a given year, he sports a strong 6.9% walk rate for his career and has been extremely effective at keeping the ball on the ground across his ten years as a major league player. Stroman’s groundball rate has never dipped below 50% throughout his career, and his 57.1% grounder rate last year actually slightly surpasses his career mark of 56.7%. Only Logan Webb, Framber Valdez, and Dallas Keuchel have generated grounders at a higher clip than Stroman throughout their careers among active players, and only Webb walks fewer batters among that group. It’s a style of play that should work particularly well in Yankee stadium, which was the third-most homer friendly park in the majors last year according to Statcast.

The addition of Stroman takes the Yankees over the final $297MM luxury tax threshold, with RosterResource projecting the club for a luxury tax payroll of just under $306MM in 2024.  Every dollar the Yankees spend beyond that $297MM threshold will be taxed at a whopping 110% rate, given the team’s status as a third-time payor in 2024. The club’s actual 2024 payroll is similarly high, sitting at just over $294MM. That will be the highest payroll in club history, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Adding a starting pitcher to the club’s rotation appeared to be the Yankees’ biggest need at this point in the offseason, so it’s possible the club is mostly done for the winter at this point. Recent reports have indicated the club has some level of interest in the likes of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber and Jesus Luzardo, including a report earlier today that the club had made an offer to Snell. All of that was prior to the club’s addition of Stroman, of course, though it’s at least feasible the club could look to add another starter to pair with Cole at the front of the rotation, likely pushing Schmidt into a swing role out of the bullpen.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that the sides were “making progress” on a deal. Mike Mayer of Metsmerized was first with the sides coming to an agreement. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that the deal, which is pending a physical, is for two years with an option for a third. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the deal’s average annual value of $18.5MM a season, while Heyman first added that the third year is a vesting option. Sherman reported further details on the option.

Yankees, Marcus Stroman Have Had Recent Discussions

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The Yankees have held “productive” discussions with free agent right-hander Marcus Stroman recently, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. There’s no indication that a deal is close at this time, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Long Island native had expressed interest in pitching for the Yankees (though the team hadn’t made an offer at the time).

On the one hand, signing Stroman is a straightforward means of addressing an obvious need for the Yankees. Beyond reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole, the Yankees’ rotation is littered with question marks. Injuries torpedoed the bulk of Carlos Rodon’s first season in the Bronx; he pitched just 64 1/3 innings with a grisly 6.84 ERA after signing a six-year, $162MM contract. Fellow southpaw Nestor Cortes was limited to a near-identical slate of innings (with better but still sub-par results — a 4.97 ERA) due to injuries of his own. Former top prospect Clarke Schmidt made 32 starts and piled up a career-high 159 innings but did so with a 4.64 earned run average. The Yankees traded Michael King to the Padres in the Juan Soto deal and saw Luis Severino sign with the crosstown Mets in free agency.

On the other hand, Stroman himself is coming off an injury-ruined second half of his second and perhaps final season as a member of the Cubs. The two-time All-Star had pitched his way into Cy Young talks through the first half of the season, compiling a pristine 2.28 ERA with a 21.4% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and a massive 60% ground-ball rate in his first 16 starts — a span of 98 2/3 innings. Stroman, however, allowed 30 runs over his next 30 innings before hitting the injured list with a hip injury. While rehabbing that, he was diagnosed with a rib cartilage fracture that kept him on the shelf all the way into mid-September. Stroman returned to pitch eight shaky innings and then opted out of the final year and $21MM of his contract.

Given that end to his season, Stroman himself has some injury question marks. Beyond that, the Yankees in particular stand as a surprising fit to some extent, given general manager Brian Cashman’s prior and unusually candid remarks regarding the right-hander. In September of 2019, Cashman acknowledged to Wallace Matthews of ESPN that the Yankees held some interest in Stroman at that year’s trade deadline — Stroman ultimately landed with the Mets — before adding that they passed because they “didn’t think he would be a difference-maker” and that the right-hander “would be in our bullpen in the postseason.”

Perhaps some of that still holds true; the Yankees could well view Stroman as their fourth starter in the event that each of Cole, Rodon and Cortes are healthy. Then again, Stroman has pitched to a sharp 3.48 ERA in 514 innings since the 2019 trade deadline, fanning 21.4% of his opponents against a tidy 7.3% walk rate and complementing those marks with a terrific 52.5% grounder rate.

Regardless of where the Yankees feel he’d slot into the staff, there’s little doubt that Stroman is a clear upgrade for the team’s rotation. Stroman’s performance has been consistently better than average, and his perennially strong ground-ball rates have helped him post low home-run rates throughout his career (despite frequently pitching in hitter-friendly settings like Toronto and Chicago). The Yankees, whose own home park is friendly to hitters, have shown a strong preference for grounder-heavy pitchers in the bullpen (e.g. Zack Britton, Clay Holmes, Wandy Peralta, Joely Rodriguez), so it stands to reason that’d carry over to at least some extent in the rotation as well.

AL Notes: Mariners, White Sox, Stroman, Yankees

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The Mariners have been busy on the trade market of late, swapping Robbie Ray for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani in a deal with the Giants while acquiring lefty slugger Luke Raley in a swap with the Rays that sent infielder Jose Caballero to Tampa. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto recently spoke to reporters (including Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times) about the deals and the club’s plans for the remainder of the offseason.

Dipoto described the moves as making the Mariners’ roster “more complete” than it has been at any point in the offseason and suggested that if the regular season were to start tomorrow, the club would be satisfied with its roster as currently constructed. The additions of Raley and Haniger certainly shore up the roster’s corner outfield spots, which were the most glaring holes on the roster following the departures of Jarred Kelenic and Teoscar Hernandez. Even as the outfield appears to be set, however, the club’s infield depth took a hit when Caballero was shipped to the Rays. That leaves the Mariners with just Josh Rojas, Luis Urias, and Dylan Moore to handle second and third base with J.P. Crawford entrenched at shortstop and Ty France penciled in as the club’s everyday first baseman.

Despite Dipoto’s vote of confidence in the roster as currently constructed, he left the door open to the Mariners making additional moves as the offseason continues. “…I don’t think we’re done,” Dipoto said (as relayed by Divish), “We still have the desire to find ways to get better. And we certainly have the flexibility from a roster standpoint to go do that.” While it’s unclear how much room the Mariners have remaining in their budget this winter, Dipoto’s comments certainly make it feasible that the club could look to shore up their infield depth before the offseason comes to a close. Gio Urshela, Whit Merrifield, and Amed Rosario are among the mid-level free agent infielders still available on the market.

More from around the American League…

  • The White Sox are continuing to shuffle their front office after hiring Chris Getz as GM on the heels of the club’s midseason firing of Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams last year. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the club is hiring longtime Royals executive Jin Wong as an assistant GM. Wong will handle many of the duties previously assigned to assistant GM Jeremy Haber going forward, as Nightengale adds that Haber is expected to depart the club’s front office before Spring Training begins next month. Wong spent 24 years as a member of the Royals organization after first joining the organization in the scouting department back in 2000. Over his time in Kansas City, Wong filled a variety of roles before eventually rising to the title of VP of baseball administration and assistant GM.
  • Nightengale also reports that free agent right-hander Marcus Stroman has approached the Yankees to express “serious interest” in signing with the club, though he adds that the club has not reciprocated that interest with a contract offer at this point. Stroman, whose free agency MLBTR profiled last week, pitched solidly with the Cubs last year en route to a 3.95 ERA and 3.58 FIP in 136 2/3 innings of work. While the Yankees are in the market for pitching, recent reporting has suggested that the club is focused on top-of-the-market southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery in free agency, both of whom are generally considered to be a tier above Stroman who stands as one of the stronger mid-market options remaining in free agency.

Free Agent Profile: Marcus Stroman

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The free agent market has been slower than usual this winter, but one area of the market that has stayed fairly consistently active throughout the offseason has been the starting pitching market. More than half of the league entered the offseason in hopes of acquiring a starter or two this winter, and deals have come together for many of them. While the Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes have held things up for many top-of-the-market options, potential mid-rotation arms have seen no such delay in free agency as players like Kenta Maeda, Lucas Giolito, Seth Lugo, Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez have all been among the players to come off the board since free agency officially opened in early November.

That flurry of activity has left the pickings fairly slim in this area of the market, even as the top of the market still features the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery and plenty of lower-level options like James Paxton and Sean Manaea remain available. One mid-rotation piece who has yet to be taken off the market is right-hander Marcus Stroman, who opted out of the final year and $21MM on his contract with the Cubs to test free agency last month. Since Stroman’s decision, there has been little public interest in the right-handers services. The Royals reportedly engaged with the righty earlier this offseason, though the club added both Lugo and Wacha to their rotation since then and appear to be done making significant additions to the roster.

It’s somewhat understandable that Stroman hasn’t generated major interest so far this offseason. The right-hander is entering his age-33 season, meaning he’s older than the likes of Rodriguez, Wacha, and Giolito. What’s more, the righty is coming off a injury-marred campaign in Chicago where he missed six weeks due to a rib cartilage fracture and posted a brutal 8.29 ERA across his final 11 appearances with the Cubs. That clubs may be hesitant about a pitcher entering his mid-thirties who struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness in the second half last year is hardly surprising, but that lack of interest could make Stroman one of the more undervalued assets available in free agency this offseason.

After all, Stroman was among the most dominant pitchers in baseball in the first half, with a sterling 2.28 ERA in 98 2/3 innings of work across his first sixteen starts of the season. That dominant performance earned Stroman the second All Star nod of his career, and while the righty’s 3.33 FIP and .235 BABIP indicate some of that exceptional run prevention may have been due to good fortune, that FIP was still considerably better than league average and his incredible 59.9% groundball rate surely helped to explain his unusually low home run rate. Meanwhile, Stroman’s atrocious results in the second half were generally not backed up by underlying metrics; his aforementioned 8.29 ERA in the second half was more than four runs higher than his far more palatable 4.23 FIP, and his strikeout and walk rates only worsened slightly as he punched out 19.3% of batters faced while walking 9.6%.

Taken together, Stroman’s 2023 season paints a picture of a playoff-caliber, mid-rotation arm: the right-hander posted a 3.95 ERA (113 ERA+) with a 3.58 FIP in 136 2/3 innings of work while striking out 20.7% of batters, walking 9%, and generating grounders at a 57.7% clip across 27 appearances (25 starts). That was good for the 18th-best FIP in baseball last year among pitchers who made at least 25 starts, sandwiched between Montgomery and Mets right-hander Kodai Senga. If Stroman can as much as match his peripheral numbers from 2023 with improved health and batted ball luck, he figures to be a quality piece who could improve the majority of rotations around the league. And while both of his seasons in Chicago saw the right-hander miss time due to injury, Stroman has made 32+ starts four times in his career, most recently in 2021 as a member of the Mets.

The Cubs have been connected to pitchers such as Shota Imanaga in free agency and Shane Bieber via trade this offseason, and Stroman previously publicly expressed his desire to remain in Chicago long-term over the summer, ahead of the trade deadline. While a reunion between the sides has not been rumored to this point in the offseason, the Cubs certainly remain a fit for the righty’s services as they look for an additional arm to pair with Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, and Jameson Taillon in the rotation. Looking beyond Chicago, the Red Sox are in the hunt for pitching and could benefit from pairing Stroman’s stable, mid-rotation production with higher variance pitchers like Giolito and Brayan Bello, while the Giants, Padres, Yankees, and Rangers are among the many teams who could look for rotation upgrades going forward this offseason.

Though many of those clubs would surely prefer to add a player such as Snell, Montgomery, or even Imanaga to their rotation mix, each of those southpaws is expected to garner $100MM or more on the open market. At this point in the offseason, teams hoping to add a playoff-caliber starter without breaking the bank will be hard-pressed to find a better option than Stroman, who was projected by MLBTR for just two years and $44MM in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list. That appears to be more or less par for the course in the mid-rotation market, as Giolito landed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox while Lugo received a three-year, $45MM guarantee from the Royals. If Stroman does garner a similar contract to the other mid-rotation arms available this winter, it’s easy to imagine the deal proving to be among the more cost-effective pitching signings of the offseason should he manage a full, healthy season in 2024.

Royals Interested In Marcus Stroman

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Marcus Stroman is among the many pitchers the Royals “appear to [have] on their radar,” the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes (X link).  Rotation help is a stated goal of the Kansas City offseason, and the club has been linked to such other free agents as Seth Lugo, Lucas Giolito, and the now-signed Sonny Gray and Erick Fedde, as well as trade targets on teams like the Mariners and Marlins.

Stroman is another name that would pretty much instantly become the de facto ace of a largely unproven K.C. rotation.  Cole Ragans looked tremendous after being dealt to the Royals in the Aroldis Chapman trade, but Ragans has only 136 Major League innings on his resume.  The rest of the Royals’ homegrown young arms struggled across the board, as did veterans Jordan Lyles, Zack Greinke, and Brad Keller.  With the latter two now free agents, the 2024 rotation currently lines up as Ragans, Lyles, Brady Singer, and then question marks.

It wasn’t exactly a clean season for Stroman either last year, as injuries spoiled what was initially shaping up to be a very strong 2023 campaign.  Stroman had a 3.95 ERA over 136 2/3 innings, which broke down as a 2.96 ERA in 112 2/3 frames prior to the All-Star break, and then a 8.64 ERA over his final 24 innings of the season.  The right-hander missed about six weeks due to hip inflammation and then a cartilage fracture in his right ribcage, and thus the Cubs limited to Stroman to shortened starts and bullpen work after he returned from the injured list in September.

With injuries also hampering Stroman in 2022, some durability questions naturally have to be asked as the righty enters his age-33 season.  That said, Stroman chose to bet on himself by exercising the opt-out clause in his contract with the Cubs, leaving behind a $21MM salary for 2024 in search of a larger pact in the free agent market.

MLBTR predicted a two-year, $44MM deal for Stroman, who ranked 18th on our top 50 free agents list.  This projection acts as reflects his recent injury history while still locking in some extra money and security.  Of course, only the market will determine how accurate this prediction was, and if Stroman’s price tag does approach a $22MM average annual value, it might put him out of Kansas City’s spending range.

GM J.J. Picollo recently said that the Royals have at least $30MM available on free agents this winter, as ownership is willing to allocate a bit more payroll than usual in order to address the club’s pitching needs and simply to help right the ship after a dreadful 106-loss season.  Stroman making over $20MM would alone eat up a good portion of that budget, but the fact that the Royals are even considering Stroman, Lugo, or even Gray indicates that Kansas City is prepared to make a relatively big splash for a larger upgrade.  Likewise, it should be noted that the Royals could also still look to obtain pitching help in trades, though giving up prospects would represent a different kind of cost than simply spending on a free agent.

Picollo made a point of noting how the Royals (and other rebuilding teams) need to work harder to convince veteran free agents to join a club that doesn’t look like a contender for 2024 or perhaps even in the near future.  That said, Stroman was willing to join the Cubs two years ago when Chicago was in the midst of a rebuild, so he could perhaps be amendable to joining the Royals if the price is right and if Stroman has confidence that the franchise is on the right track.  It also can’t be ruled out that Stroman might view K.C. as something of a stopover, whether via a trade at the deadline or perhaps another contractual opt-out clause.

Marcus Stroman Opts Out Of Deal With Cubs

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Marcus Stroman has enacted the opt-out clause in his contract and will now become a free agent, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports (X link).  Stroman’s three-year, $71MM deal with the Cubs from the 2021-22 offseason allowed Stroman to opt out of the final year of that contract, and the right-hander will be leaving $21MM on the table in search of a larger and more lucrative deal this winter.

Stroman faced one of the more interesting option decisions of any player on the market, as his 2023 campaign was a tale of two seasons.  In the first half, Stroman had a 2.96 ERA over 112 2/3 innings and received an All-Star nod for his efforts.  In the second half, Stroman had an 8.63 ERA over only 24 innings, as he missed about six weeks on the injured list.  Initially sidelined with hip inflammation, Stroman was revealed to have a right rib cartilage fracture, which delayed his IL stint beyond what seemed like a fairly minimal 15-day absence.  While the righty was able to make it back for the Cubs’ late-season playoff push, Stroman was limited to bullpen duty and shortened starts, as Chicago ended up missing the postseason.

Altogether, Stroman delivered a 3.95 ERA over 136 2/3 innings, with his usual outstanding (57.1%) grounder rate and a below-average (20.7%) strikeout rate.  Good control has also been part of Stroman’s repertoire, but his 9% walk rate in 2023 was both the highest of his career and only in the 40th percentile of all pitchers.  It is fair to say that Stroman’s injuries contributed to his struggles over the season’s last three months, though it also marks his second straight year with a notable injury absence.  Between shoulder inflammation and a brief stint on the COVID-related IL, Stroman threw only 138 2/3 innings in 2022, barely above his 2023 total.

While not the ideal platform into free agency for a pitcher entering his age-33, Stroman and his reps at Roc Nation Sports should certainly be able to find a multi-year pact on the open market, worth well above the $21MM Stroman would’ve received from the Cubs.  Stroman’s groundball-heavy approach may not quite fit the preferred mold for some front offices, yet it’s hard to argue with results, as Stroman has posted generally good results over his nine MLB seasons.  At his best, Stroman has looked like a front-of-the-rotation star, with two All-Star nods on his resume and a seventh-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting when he was a member of the Blue Jays in 2017.

Stroman will head into free agency without having to worry about a qualifying offer, as Stroman previously received (and accepted) a QO from the Mets following the 2020 season.  The lack of draft compensation attached to his services could give Stroman a leg up on other starters on the market, and it also means that the Cubs won’t receive anything in return should Stroman sign with another team.

The Cubs reportedly had some degree of extension talks with Stroman this past spring, through the right-hander’s comments in June indicated that those negotiations were minimal at best.  “Up until now, there’s been nothing from their side.  No offers, no talks, really, at all,” Stroman said.  Though Stroman made it clear that he wanted to stay in Chicago, the lack of contract discussions apparently lasted through the summer, as it seemed for much of the season that the Cubs were leaning towards trading Stroman at the deadline.  However, Stroman’s second-half struggles and the Cubs’ own improvement and surge into the playoff race changed those plans, even if the irony was that Stroman wasn’t able to contribute much to the pennant race.

As recently as two weeks ago, The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney wrote that Stroman and Kyle Hendricks were “expected” to return to Wrigleyville in 2024, with Stroman passing on his opt-out and the Cubs exercising Hendricks’ $16MM club option.  There hasn’t yet been word on Hendricks’ option, though the two sides are reportedly discussing a contract extension that might overwrite the option entirely.  Speculatively, this situation might’ve impacted Stroman’s choice, as if he felt the Cubs were prioritizing Hendricks in their long-term plans, Stroman might’ve decided to seek out a longer-term deal with another team now, rather than spend one final year in Chicago.  Stroman might’ve faced more trade buzz if the Cubs weren’t in contention, or another injury-marred season might’ve more fully hampered his free agent case in the 2024-25 offseason.

A reunion between Stroman and the Cubs probably shouldn’t be entirely ruled out, though Chicago has other pitching options.  Assuming Hendricks stays in some capacity, the rotation lines up as Justin Steele, Hendricks, Jameson Taillon as the top three starters, and Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and Jordan Wicks competing for the last two spots.  Drew Smyly could also be involved if he doesn’t opt out of the final year (and $11MM) of his contract.  It stands to reason that the Cubs will look to augment this group with at least one veteran arm, whether Stroman or another free agent or trade chip.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

Central Notes: Cubs, Molina, Royals

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The Cubs are facing some uncertainty in their rotation early this offseason, as veteran right-handers Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman both have contracts featuring options for the 2024 campaign. The club holds a $16MM team option on Hendricks that features a $1.5MM buyout, while Stroman can opt out of the final year of his contract with Chicago, leaving $21MM on the table to return to the open market. Though option decisions aren’t due until five days after the World Series concludes, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic writes that both Hendricks and Stroman are “expected” to remain with the club in 2024.

Picking up Hendricks’s club option seems to be something of a no-brainer for the Cubs, given how well he pitched last year. After a shoulder injury wiped out most of the soft-tossing righty’s 2022 season and the beginning of his 2023, Hendricks rebounded to make 24 starts for the Cubs, pitching to a 3.74 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 137 innings of work. In a market where even bounce back starters can get two-year guarantees in the range of $12.5MM (as the likes of Sean Manaea, Andrew Heaney, and Ross Stripling did last offseason), a $14.5MM decision for one year of Hendricks is a sensible investment.

Stroman’s option decision, on the other hand, is more complicated. Multi-year offers that would beat Stroman’s $21MM total salary for 2024 will surely be available to the right-hander this offseason if he decides to test the open market. While he appeared to be a good bet to approach or perhaps even beat the yearly salary offered by his option on the open market early in the season, when he was dominating for the Cubs to the tune of a 2.28 ERA across his first 16 starts of the season, he figures to be a long-shot to receive a comparable AAV this offseason after battling injuries and ineffectiveness in the second half, with an 8.29 ERA over his final 38 innings of work this year.

If both players do remain in Chicago with their options exercised, that will eat up a combined $37MM in payroll space for the club this offseason. As noted by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes in the Cubs installment of our Offseason Outlook series, Stroman and Hendricks returning to Chicago figures to push the club’s commitments well over $200MM for luxury tax purposes, leaving little room for the Cubs to maneuver this offseason without exceeding the first tax threshold, which will sit at $237MM this offseason.

More from around MLB’s central divisions:

  • The Cardinals were recently reported to have interest in bringing longtime catcher Yadier Molina back into the fold just one season after his retirement, this time as a member of the coaching staff.  Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat provided more details on the situation this morning, indicating that Molina reportedly has interest in acting as the club’s bench coach. As Jones notes, the contract status of current bench coach Joe McEwing is unclear, though he adds that it’s believed the Cardinals at least hold an option on his services for 2024. Jones also notes the difficult situation that Molina’s presence as bench coach could create for manager Oli Marmol; Marmol is entering the final year of his contract with the club next season and would likely face greater pressure in 2024 with a player of Molina’s status within the organization acting as his number two, particularly after Molina got his feet wet in a managerial role as skipper of team Puerto Rico during the World Baseball Classic earlier this year.
  • The Royals lost a longtime member of their front office yesterday, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that assistant GM for baseball administration Jin Wong is departing the organization. Wong, who per Rosenthal is leaving Kansas City “of his own accord,” had been in the organization for 24 years. MLB.com’s Anne Rogers relays that Wong played key roles in contract negotiations for key players in the organization’s recent history, including Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain, with much of his role being dealing with Kansas City’s budget and payroll management.

NL Central Notes: Reds, Cubs, Taylor

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Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that outfielder Harrison Bader won’t return to the field this year, and that the odds of right-hander Tejay Antone making it back before 2024 are “remote.” While both players were already known to be out for the remainder of the regular season due to their recent placements on the injured list, Bell’s comments pour cold water on hopes of either player making an impact for Cincinnati this postseason in the event the Reds are able to claim one of the NL Wild Card spots. Pending the end of tonight’s game against Pittsburgh, the Reds currently sit two games behind the Cubs for the final NL Wild Card spot. The club is also one game back of the Marlins, the top NL club currently outside the postseason picture.

Antone made just five appearances out of the bullpen for the Reds this year due to injuries, but was dominant in that limited action with a 1.59 ERA and a 33.3% strikeout rate in 5 2/3 innings of work. Given the right-hander’s strong track record in Cincinnati when healthy, he figures to feature prominently in the club’s plans next year even in the event he doesn’t return this season.

The same can’t be said for Bader, a pending free agent who joined the Reds after being placed on waivers by the Yankees at the end of August. Bader had struggled with the bat in New York, slashing just .240/.278/.365 in 84 games with the club, but more than made up for it with his superlative glovework in center field. Unfortunately, his time in Cincinnati saw his work with the bat deteriorate even more as he posted a brutal .161/.235/.194 slash line in 14 games that was good for a wRC+ of just 15. That said, between his strong defense in center field and a much more promising career wRC+ of 92, Bader figures to hit free agency after the season with a chance to land a healthy contract.

Today’s injury news for the Reds isn’t all bad, however. Rookie infielder Matt McLain, who went on the injured list with an oblique strain nearly a month ago, is on the verge of returning per MLB.com. As discussed by Bell, McLain is headed for a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level and figures to play two games there before returning to the major league club, with Tuesday’s game against the Guardians standing as the club’s current target for McLain’s return. Assuming he’s fully healthy, McLain should bolster the club’s lineup in a big way given his .290/.357/.507 slash line in 403 trips to the plate this year.

More from the NL Central…

  • Cubs right-hander Marcus Stroman made his first start since July this afternoon, taking the ball against the Rockies at Wrigley Field. Stroman was activated from the injured list earlier this month to join the club’s bullpen and did well in that role, striking out four while allowing only an unearned run on two hits and a walk in three innings of work. Stroman’s return to the rotation left right-hander Javier Assad as the odd man out in the club’s starting plans. That being said, with Stroman not yet fully built up to a starter’s workload, Assad took the ball in relief of the veteran for four scoreless innings today, lowering the youngster’s ERA to 2.88 on the season. With Stroman back in the rotation, Assad figures to be a valuable multi-inning weapon for the Cubs out of the bullpen down the stretch. Chicago has plenty of high leverage opportunities available with Adbert Alzolay, Michael Fulmer, and Brad Boxberger all currently on the injured list.
  • Brewers outfielder Tyrone Taylor hasn’t played since Wednesday and was once again held out of the lineup today, with manager Craig Counsell indicating to MLB.com that the 29-year-old was dealing with some hamstring tightness. The club has decided to act cautiously rather than risk losing Taylor to an injury that could keep him out of the postseason, though Counsell added that he hopes Taylor will be able to return to the lineup for tomorrow’s game against the Marlins. Taylor was ice cold to start the year, resulting in a lackluster season slash line of just .233/.270/.408 in 210 plate appearances, but he’s been one of Milwaukee’s strongest offensive contributors since the start of August with a scorching hot .291/.341/.581 slash line including 11 doubles, a triple, and seven homers in 126 trips to the plate. Blake Perkins has gotten additional reps in the outfield in recent days with Taylor temporarily shelved.

Marcus Stroman To Pitch Out Of Bullpen

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7:48pm: Stroman will indeed pitch out of the bullpen for the time being, writes Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. He could be an option to return to the rotation at some point down the stretch, but he’ll build up with multi-inning relief work. The Cubs will stick with a starting five of Steele, Hendricks, Wicks, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad for the time being.

6:49pm: The Cubs announced they’ve reinstated Marcus Stroman from the 15-day injured list. Daniel Palencia was optioned to Triple-A Iowa in a corresponding move.

Stroman is back for the first time since the end of July. He initially landed on the IL with inflammation in his right hip. That wasn’t a particularly serious issue, but he was subsequently diagnosed with a rib cartilage fracture that necessitated a longer shutdown. At one point, it seemed unclear if he’d make it back to the club at all this season.

Fortunately for Chicago, he’ll return for the last couple weeks. The Cubs have Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jordan Wicks lined up to start this weekend’s three-game set in Arizona. The Cubs don’t have a set starter for their next series against the Pirates, which begins Tuesday. It’s possible they hold Stroman until that point, but the fact that they activated him tonight might suggest he’ll be available out of the bullpen this weekend.

Stroman has been throwing for a couple weeks but didn’t go on a minor league rehab stint. The Cubs presumably won’t want him immediately logging 75-100 pitches in his first game action in six weeks. A few multi-inning relief stints could be a way of building his arm strength while still getting him into potentially pivotal games as the club tries to lock down a playoff berth.

For the first couple months of the season, the right-hander was in the NL Cy Young conversation. After tossing seven scoreless innings against the Pirates on June 20, he carried a 2.28 ERA with a massive 59.9% grounder percentage over 16 starts. He received a deserved All-Star nod for the second time in his career on the back of that strong first half. However, Stroman had a couple clunkers headed into the break and was rocked in three of his first four outings of the second half. Over his seven starts preceding the IL stint, he allowed an even 9.00 ERA in 30 innings, with his ground-ball rate dipping to 52.9%.

Showing well over the final couple weeks and potentially into October would go a long way towards bolstering his stock in advance of a possible second career free agent trip. Stroman has a $21MM player option for the upcoming season. It seemed a lock he’d decline that in search of a longer-term pact while he was dominating over the first couple months. While that could still be the case, the option would have been more borderline if Stroman had lost the bulk of the second half to injury. He’ll look to demonstrate he has put the rib issue behind him.

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