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Marcus Semien

Free Agent Notes: Ozuna, Semien, Simmons, Miller, Moreland, Richards

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The latest buzz from the free agent market…

  • The Dodgers, Brewers, Yankees, and Red Sox are among the teams interested in Marcell Ozuna, according to Hector Gomez of Deportivo Z 101 (via Twitter).  These four clubs are new additions to Ozuna’s market, while the Twins and Mets (also mentioned by Gomez) were linked to the slugger earlier this winter.  Ozuna is looking for at least a four-year contract, Gomez writes.  While financial demands weren’t mentioned, it can be assumed that Ozuna is looking for enough money to put the Dodgers and Yankees well over the $210MM luxury tax threshold, so it’s possible their interest is somewhat limited.  Such a signing would also put Boston close to the threshold, and while the Brewers are nowhere near the tax line, it would represent a very bold move by a Milwaukee team that wasn’t expected to spend much this winter.  It has been a relatively quiet offseason for Ozuna on the rumor mill, as his market may be dependent on whether or not the NL has a designated hitter spot available in 2021 and beyond.
  • Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, and Andrelton Simmons “are viewed within the industry as similar enough that no team is compelled to set the market with a contract,” according to Matt Gelb and C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic,  This has created a lot of uncertainty about when any of the shortstop trio might sign, what their next deals might be worth, or what teams will eventually make the leap.  Gelb and Rosecrans discussed the three shortstops with nine  evaluators, who broke down the pros and cons of each player and ranked them 1-2-3 on a ballot.
  • In other news about the shortstops, the Red Sox are likely no longer a fit for Semien now that Enrique Hernandez is heading to Boston.  The Sox were reported to have interest in Semien as a second baseman, but MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter links) hears from a source who believes “Semien still wants to sign as a shortstop,” despite interest from teams at other infield positions.  Boston is still looking to add a left-handed hitter to the bench mix, with Cotillo reporting that Brad Miller and Mitch Moreland are possibilities.
  • The Blue Jays were known to have interest in Simmons back in November and in the leadup to the trade deadline, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Simmons is still on Toronto’s radar.
  • Garrett Richards is one player who seems to no longer to be under consideration for the Blue Jays, as Cotillo reports that the Jays aren’t one of the teams still looking to sign the free agent righty.  “At least other teams” besides the Red Sox are still vying for Richards, Cotillo writes, though Boston seems to be relatively far along in discussions with Richards’ camp.

FA Notes: Dodgers, Marwin, Mets, Tigers, BoSox, Anibal, Teheran

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The Dodgers are seeking a right-handed-hitting infielder, and free-agent third baseman Justin Turner is their No. 1 choice, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. While the team has shown interest in fellow righty-hitting infielder Marcus Semien, Heyman notes it may be difficult for the team to sign both players. Turner spent 2014-20 as a Dodger and has been one of the majors’ top hitters during his Los Angeles tenure. The 36-year-old is reportedly seeking a four-year contract, however, and it’s tough to envision the Dodgers or anyone else saying yes to that.

  • The Twins have expressed interest in re-signing utility player Marwin Gonzalez, Mark Feinsand and Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com report. The switch-hitting Gonzalez spent the first several years of his career in Houston, where he was particularly productive during its World Series-winning season in 2017, but has seen his numbers tumble since then. The Twins signed Gonzalez to a two-year, $21MM guarantee before 2019, but he slumped to a .248/.311/.387 line with 20 home runs in 662 plate appearances over the life of that contract. Gonzalez did play every defensive position but catcher and center field as a Twin, though, and that versatility is surely among the reasons they could re-sign the 31-year-old.
  • Enrique Hernandez, another free-agent utilityman, received “pretty strong” interest from the Mets before they fired general manager Jared Porter on Tuesday, Heyman relays. It isn’t clear whether the Mets are still in on Hernandez now that Porter is out of the organization. Hernandez, 29, lined up all over the diamond with the Dodgers from 2014-20, but his offensive production has lacked over the past couple seasons. He slashed just .230/.270/.410 with five home runs in 148 plate appearances last year.
  • The Tigers have interest in free-agent catcher Jason Castro, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. As Morosi notes, Castro played under new Tigers skipper A.J. Hinch for two seasons when he was the Astros’ manager. The 33-year-old Castro would give the Tigers a credible veteran at catcher, where Grayson Greiner and Jake Rogers – who have struggled in the majors – are the only 40-man options on the roster right now. Castro, who divided last season between the Angels and Padres, looked to be nearing a reunion with Houston late last month, but things have gone silent on that front in recent weeks.
  • The Red Sox “were ready to move on” two-time AL Cy Young-winning righty Corey Kluber before he agreed to a one-year, $11MM deal with the archrival Yankees last week, but they might have wanted to structure his contract differently, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. With the Red Sox unlikely to contend in 2021, Speier suggests their preference may have been to sign Kluber to a one-year pact with an option. Kluber is a Massachusetts resident, but with New York more likely to push for a World Series in 2021, he found the Yankees to be a more appealing pick than the Red Sox.
  • Twenty-four teams attended the showcase for free-agent righties Anibal Sanchez and Julio Teheran on Tuesday, per Heyman, who adds that both hurlers could sign in the near future. While the 36-year-old Sanchez and Teheran, 29, have accomplished plenty in the majors, they’re looking for contracts at a less-than-ideal time after performing poorly in 2020. Sanchez could only muster a 6.62 ERA in 53 innings with the Nationals, while Teheran put up an even more disastrous 10.05 mark over 31 1/3 frames as an Angel.

Dodgers Have Considered Marcus Semien At Third Base

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The Dodgers were in the mix for DJ LeMahieu prior to his agreement to return to the Yankees, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic cautions that L.A.’s miss on LeMahieu doesn’t guarantee a reunion with Justin Turner at third base. The Dodgers are mulling potential alternatives at the hot corner, per Rosenthal, including longtime A’s shortstop Marcus Semien.

There’s surely an aspect of due diligence at play here. President of baseball ops Andrew Friedman and his crew wouldn’t be doing their jobs if they didn’t consider all avenues, but Semien nevertheless creates an interesting option for the Dodgers — particularly if he’s signed to a multi-year deal. Corey Seager wouldn’t be displaced for Semien in 2021, Rosenthal notes, but Seager is a free agent next winter. Semien would give the Dodgers a fallback in the event that Seager signs elsewhere upon reaching the open market. As a Scott Boras client, he seems unlikely to sign an extension this spring.

The market for Semien has yet to fully take shape, as is the case with most position players in this glacial free agency period. The Reds and Phillies are among the teams known to be looking for a shortstop, and the Twins have increasingly been reported to be considering shortstop additions as well. Fansided’s Robert Murray reported awhile back that Semien had garnered interest at other positions; his ability to play an above-average shortstop should carry over and allow him to play quality defense at a less-demanding position like second or third.

The question regarding Semien, of course, is what to expect from him at the plate. His 2020 season didn’t come close to his MVP-caliber 2019 campaign, although it’s also at least anecdotally worth pointing out that Semien improved after a slow start to the year and raked through Oakland’s eight-game playoff run. That’s a small sample, of course, but that’s true of the entire 2020 season.

In many ways, Semien exemplifies the difficulty in evaluating a player during this year’s two-month slate of games. His agents at Wasserman surely will argue that 2019 was the beginning of a breakout and that his torrid finish to the year shows he was on his way to replicating that production over a larger sample. More skeptical teams might point to the fact that Semien was more of a league-average bat prior to 2019. An average hitter capable of providing above-average defense at shortstop is still a very good player, but there’d be a major gap between how that player and the 2019 Semien are compensated.

There’s no evidence that Semien is any sort of priority for the Dodgers at the moment, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to hear that they’ve also considered a handful of other options. Turner, after all, is reported to be seeking a four-year contract that’d run through his age-39 season, so it’s more than understandable if the Dodgers and other clubs are mulling alternatives.

It’s also worth noting, too, that the Dodgers appear willing to spend at the position. Pat Ragazzo, who first reported the terms of LeMahieu’s agreement to return to the Bronx, also reported that the Dodgers offered LeMahieu a four-year deal worth a total of $60MM. That’s two years and $30MM shy of where he landed, of course, but we don’t know when that offer came in, either. A reunion with Turner seems likelier than a deal with Semien, but it’s still of some note that Los Angeles was seemingly willing to go multiple years at a significant rate for an infielder other than Turner.

Latest On Marcus Semien

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Over two months into free agency, shortstop Marcus Semien remains without a team. It’s not for lack of interest, however, as Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets that the Athletics, Phillies, Reds and Red Sox have all been part of negotiations with Semien “to some extent.” It’s isn’t known how serious any of those discussions have gotten, however.

Semien, 30, spent the previous six years in Oakland, where he was regularly an average or better starter. He reached a new level in 2019, an MVP-caliber season in which he didn’t miss a game and posted 7.6 fWAR with a .285/.369/.522 line and 33 home runs, but wasn’t able to replicate those otherworldly stats last year. Semien bounced back to a major degree as the year progressed, however, evidenced by a 64 wRC+ in the first half and a 126 mark in the second.

Even though the A’s made it known on multiple occasions during and after the season that they wanted Semien back, they did not give him an $18.9MM qualifying offer. Now, considering he could price himself out of the team’s range in free agency, it seems doubtful low-budget Oakland will win the bidding for Semien. Thanks in part to the pandemic, the A’s don’t seem as if they’ll spend much this winter.

Philadelphia and Cincinnati appear to be more realistic fits for Semien, who would certainly address their gaping holes at shortstop. The Phillies could plug him in to replace Didi Gregorius, another notable veteran shortstop who’s currently a free agent. Freddy Galvis is a free agent for the Reds, meanwhile, leaving Jose Garcia as at least the temporary front-runner to start for them next season. Garcia doesn’t appear ready for that role, though: He never played above High-A ball before last year, when he reached the majors and batted .194/.206/.194 with no home runs, 26 strikeouts and one walk in 68 plate appearances.

Unlike Oakland, Philadelphia and Cincinnati, Boston is targeting Semien as a second baseman, per Bowden. That isn’t surprising, as it was reported last month that teams have shown interest in Semien as an option at the keystone this offseason. Boston already has a set left side of the infield with shortstop Xander Bogaerts and third baseman Rafael Devers, but it still has to sort out second – a position that isn’t foreign to Semien. He played 77 games there as a minor leaguer and another 29 in the bigs with the White Sox from 2013-14.

Along with where he’ll go, an obvious question centering on Semien is how much it will take to sign him. When the offseason began, MLBTR predicted Semien would reel in a one-year, $14MM contract, but as Steve Adams wrote in November, others have been far more bullish in regards to his forthcoming deal. If teams are confident Semien is more the player he was in 2019 and in the second half of 2020, he could indeed collect a substantial payday over multiple years.

Red Sox Notes: Semien, Scott, Kahnle, Andriese

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The Red Sox “like” free-agent shortstop Marcus Semien, though they’re not sure how much money it would take to sign him, Peter Gammons of The Athletic tweets. Semien is one of the top shortstops on the open market, but the Red Sox already have their answer there in Xander Bogaerts. They’re also set at third base with Rafael Devers. The club does have questions at second base, but Semien hasn’t lined up there since 2014 as a member of the White Sox. The 30-year-old spent the previous six seasons with the Athletics and excelled at times, especially in 2019. He has a connection to the Red Sox in former college roommate Paul Toboni, the team’s scouting director, Gammons notes.

More out of Boston:

  • The Red Sox lost assistant general manager Zack Scott to the Mets, who hired him as their assistant GM and senior vice president Wednesday. The move came with a condition, though. The Mets will not be permitted to hire anyone else from the Red Sox’s front office either this offseason or next, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. Presumably, New York’s heavy lifting in the front office is done, with Scott joining newly-hired team president Sandy Alderson and GM Jared Porter in Queens. Nevertheless, it’s interesting to see Boston guard against other potential front office departures.
  • Tommy Kahnle signed with the Dodgers on a two-year deal this afternoon. The Red Sox, though, were also in on the free agent reliever, reports Robert Murray of Fansided (Twitter link). Boston made a “strong offer” to Kahnle and finished second for his services, adds Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. The right-hander was something of a unique case on the open market; having undergone Tommy John surgery this past August, Kahnle will likely miss all of the 2021 season but is an interesting upside play for the following year. If Boston’s looking for more immediate right-handed bullpen help, there’s no shortage of options available in free agency.
  • The Red Sox did sign one potential bullpen piece today, bringing in Matt Andriese on a one-year deal with a 2022 club option. The veteran has been used almost exclusively as a reliever over the past two seasons, although he’ll be given an opportunity to stake a claim to a rotation job next spring, he told reporters (including Cotillo). Andriese expressed an openness to either role and noted that he expects the Red Sox front office to continue to explore starting pitching additions this offseason. The right-hander broke into the majors as a true swing piece with the Rays, starting 44 of his 72 appearances in Tampa Bay from 2015-17.

Free Agent Notes: Sugano, Teheran, Semien

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The Blue Jays and Rangers are among the teams interested in Tomoyuki Sugano, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. They join the previously-reported Padres and Red Sox as known suitors for the 31-year-old. Sugano has spent the past eight seasons with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball, where he’s generally been brilliant. He sports a career ERA of 2.32 at Japan’s highest level. Sugano was excellent as ever in 2020, tossing 137.1 innings of 1.97 ball, backed up by a strong combination of 8.6 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9. The NPB team formally posted Sugano last week, giving major league teams until January 7 to work out an agreement with the right-hander.

Some more notes on the open market:

  • Right-hander Julio Teheran is planning a showcase for interested teams in mid-January, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The 29-year-old is coming off a dismal season with the Angels where he allowed 35 runs (including 12 homers) with a 20:16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 31.1 innings. Heyman notes that shoulder discomfort may have played a role in those struggles, but Teheran’s peripherals and velocity had been trending in the wrong direction for a few seasons even before the wheels fell off completely in 2020.
  • The free agent market for Marcus Semien is progressing and could reach a resolution in the coming days, Passan further reports. The 30-year-old is one of the market’s more interesting evaluations. After a stellar 2019 effort that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting, Semien had something of a disappointing follow-up this past season. His .223/.305/.374 line matched the worst offensive output of his career. That comes with obvious shortened season caveats, though, as well as a career-low .260 BABIP that looks primed for a bit of positive regression. The Reds and Phillies are the most obvious shortstop-needy contenders, but plenty of teams could move other players (or even Semien himself) around the infield to accommodate his addition to the roster.

Marcus Semien Getting Interest At Other Infield Positions

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Marcus Semien’s market has extended beyond just shortstop-needy teams, as FanSided’s Robert Murray reports that “a few” clubs have inquired about Semien as a second baseman or third baseman.  Semien has played exclusively at shortstop over the last six seasons, but he did see some action at both second (29 games) and third (50 games) earlier in his career when he was a member of the White Sox.

It isn’t clear if this was something of an exploratory ask on the part of the interested teams, as there is a notable difference between having interest in Semien primarily as a shortstop but with the flexibility of moving him to other infield spots in a pinch (or in late-game scenarios), and specifically looking at Semien as an everyday option at another infield position.  There are lots of more experienced second and third basemen available in free agency, though exploring Semien at another spot might be a more creative way for a team to address either position.

A position switch for Semien seemed like much more of a reality a few seasons ago, when he was struggling with his defense after becoming the Athletics’ full-time shortstop.  However, some diligent work on Semien’s part led to a massive improvement, as he posted +26 Defensive Runs Saved and a +5.6 UZR/150 over 2858 2/3 innings at shortstop over the 2018-19 seasons.  The UZR/150 metric still liked his work (+4.8) over 451 1/3 innings at short in 2020, but his DRS numbers fell off dramatically, with a -5 mark last season.  (Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric has never been too impressed with Semien’s glovework, as he has alternated between a -3 and -4 OAA in each of the last four seasons.)

It could be that 2020 was the start of a defensive decline, though as with every statistic from the past season, it represents a small sample size.  The same could be said about Semien’s performance at the plate, as he hit .223/.305/.374 over 236 regular season plate appearances, but he started to heat up in mid-September and then mashed his way to a 1.151 OPS over 31 PA during the playoffs.

All these factors and Semien’s lack of true elite performance outside of the 2019 season make him somewhat of a hard free agent to properly evaluate going forward, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored.  It could be that these defensive inquiries are reflective of a fairly wide difference of opinion on Semien’s value, depending on which team you ask.  Whereas some clubs may see Semien as a second baseman or third baseman, others (according to Semien’s agent Joel Wolfe) think highly enough of Semien’s defensive ability that they’re willing to move their current shortstop to another position in order to make room for Semien at his customary place at short.

Murray writes that Semien “works out at [second and third base] during the season and could play either position should the right opportunity present itself.”  One would imagine Semien would want to remain at shortstop, all things being equal, though the complicated nature of the overall shortstop market could also impact his choices.  Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons, and Korean star Ha-Seong Kim are also free agents, while star names like Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, Jean Segura, and Carlos Correa are all varying degrees of available in trade talks.  Marketing himself as not only a shortstop, but a potential multi-position threat who can be moved around the infield could be quite beneficial to Semien in making him stand out from the crowd.

How Will Marcus Semien Do In Free Agency?

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While a frosty winter for most free agents has been the general expectation throughout the industry, there’s also been a belief that the very top names on the market will still be compensated at a rate more commensurate with a typical economic climate. Names like Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer and DJ LeMahieu are widely projected to secure lucrative multi-year deals. Agent Joel Wolfe tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he expects client Marcus Semien to also command a high-dollar contract despite the harsh market conditions.

Wolfe didn’t say he expects a nine-figure deal for the 30-year-old shortstop but did plainly state that Semien’s “pure value in the industry is north of $100MM.” The use of “pure” value at a time when contractual expectations are depressed suggests that the actual target could be somewhat lower. Still, it’s rather eye-opening to see any agent invoke a $100MM price point in any context at this point — particularly for a player coming off a respectable but hardly elite season. I won’t fully rehash Wolfe’s comments for the purposes of this exercise, but Slusser’s interview is well worth a full read-through to get a broader sense of his representation’s thinking.

Semien’s market and contract, admittedly, are among the toughest to gauge among all free agents this offseason. That’s due to a combination of Semien’s pedestrian regular-season numbers, his huge postseason efforts and the fact that he was an elite, MVP-level performer in 2019 — but at no other point in his career. Add in that we simply don’t see solid, everyday shortstops reach free agency often, and it’s all the more difficult because of a lack of precedent.

Outside of Didi Gregorius last year and Zack Cozart a few years back, most quality shortstops have been locked up on contract extensions that buy out their early free-agent years. (It’s fair to wonder whether that would’ve been true of Gregorius, too, had he not required Tommy John surgery post-2018). Each of Andrelton Simmons, Xander Bogaerts, Elvis Andrus, Paul DeJong, Brandon Crawford, Jorge Polanco, Tim Anderson and Jean Segura took earlier paydays rather than a year-to-year arbitration approach, for instance. It may not seem like it at first glance, but Semien’s very presence on the market as an in-his-prime, starting-caliber shortstop is rather atypical.

Given that context, the scattershot nature of predictions for Semien isn’t all that surprising. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel predicted a three-year, $54MM deal, calling Semien a “steady 2.5 to 3.5 WAR player whom a savvy club will find solid value in for two or three years.” At FanGraphs, Craig Edwards predicted a four-year, $64MM deal, pointing to the fact that if you toss out the first two weeks of the season after a shortened ramp-up period, Semien posted a 133 wRC+ (playoffs included). The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked him sixth among free agents — between Marcell Ozuna and DJ LeMahieu — noting that he seems capable of handling shortstop for the next several years but calling 2019 a likely outlier season.

Tim Dierkes, Connor Byrne, Jeff Todd and I struggled with what to predict for Semien when we were discussing our annual Top 50 list. I was the most bullish of the bunch on Semien’s prospects, believing that the “one elite season” argument somewhat glosses over the fact that Semien kept his bat elite over the course of an MLB-high 747 plate appearances that year. Weighting that output the same as we’d rate a 500-600 plate appearance sample simply because it fell within the confines of “one season” didn’t sit right. Over Semien’s past 1000 plate appearances — closer to two full seasons than to one — he’s been about 25 percent better than a league-average hitter. For someone capable of playing average or better shortstop defense, that’s immensely valuable, even if there’s some further regression in store.

It’s tough to overlook a .223/.305/.374 slash in 2020, however, and even folding in his massive postseason performance that only jumps to .244/.326/.408. Even as the most bullish member of the MLBTR staff regarding Semien, I had a difficult time picturing more than a three-year deal in the range of $14-15MM annually. We ultimately put down a one-year deal with a return to market next winter, hopefully on the heels of a stronger showing, with the prevailing logic being that any multi-year offers received simply wouldn’t be that exciting relative to Semien’s post-2019 expectations.

The 2021-22 class of shortstops featuring Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Carlos Correa certainly isn’t a welcoming group to join, although as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd rightly pointed out, the huge supply of quality shortstops inherently means there will be considerable demand for replacements — and not every club losing one of those five will be able to meet the asking price to retain them. Therein could lie an opportunity for a strong contract for Semien. That glut of quality options, Wolfe tells Slusser, is “a factor we’d consider but not a guiding factor” in the shortstop’s ultimate decision.

While it’s again worth noting that Wolfe didn’t outright set a $100MM asking price, it still seems likely based on his comments that Semien’s reps at Wasserman have a loftier goal than most pundits expect to be attainable. Wolfe tells Slusser that interest in Semien has already been strong — including an inquiry from a club that already would appear to have a set shortstop. “I just got another call (Wednesday) from a team that said they’d be willing to move their shortstop to another position,” the agent tells Slusser.

Between the A’s, Reds, Phillies and Angels, there are at least four postseason hopefuls who have fairly straightforward openings at shortstop. Other clubs like the Yankees, Mets, Twins and Blue Jays could certainly shuffle their infield mix if they believe Semien represents a potential value purchase in a depressed market with a historically good 2021-22 shortstop class looming.

Wolfe’s comments to Slusser exude some confidence that Semien will eventually land a strong multi-year commitment, but there may not be a position player with a broader range of plausible outcomes on this year’s free-agent market.

The A’s Have Some Tough Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Heading into the 2020 season, A’s shortstop Marcus Semien appeared poised to become one of the market’s top free agents. Then 29 years of age, Semien was fresh off an MVP-caliber 2019 campaign fueled by a breakout at the plate and continued improvement upon his once-shaky defensive reputation at second base. Semien posted a huge .285/.369/.522 slash with a career-best 33 homers, 10 steals and defense strong enough to make him a Gold Glove finalist at shortstop.

The 2020 season, however, has been another story entirely. In 236 plate appearances, he turned in a .223/.305/.374 batting line with seven homers and four steals. Semien’s 10.6 percent walk rate was the second-best of his career, trailing only last year’s breakout, but he went the wrong direction in virtually every other category. His strikeout rate jumped from 13.7 percent to 21.2 percent — his highest mark since 2017 — while his isolated power dipped from .237 to .152. Semien’s hard-hit rate and average exit velocity both dropped considerably.

Marcus Semien | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

In the field, Semien went from +12 Defensive Runs Saved to -5. Outs Above Average wasn’t particularly kind to his 2020 work, either (-4). It’s worth mentioning that Ultimate Zone Rating still pegged him as a plus defender, with his 4.8 UZR/150 nearly matching the prior season’s 5.0. On a more rudimentary level, Semien made seven errors in 451 innings in 2020 compared to just 12 errors in 1435 frames a year ago.

The difficulty of evaluating players’ successes and failures in a wholly unique 2020 season is plain to see. But for both the A’s and for other clubs who may hold interest in Semien, it’s particularly challenging. Anything close to his 2019 output would’ve made him a lock to receive an $18.9MM qualifying offer, but the Oakland org now must wonder whether he’d accept such an offer and whether they’d want him back at that rate. Other clubs will be left to wonder whether the 2019 season was a fluky outlier or whether he was on player on the rise whose 2020 struggles can be attributed to myriad factors associated with this unprecedented season.

Perhaps further complicating matters for the A’s is that they have a second player who looks worth of a qualifying offer: closer Liam Hendriks. Such a notion would’ve sounded laughable as recently as 2018, when Hendriks was put through outright waivers and went unclaimed. However, he’s come back with a vengeance and emerged not only as Oakland’s closer but as the top free-agent reliever on this year’s market and one of the best relievers in the game, period.

Liam Hendriks Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Over the past two seasons, Hendriks has a ridiculous 1.79 ERA, 1.70 FIP and 2.95 xFIP with averages of 13.1 strikeouts and 2.0 walks per nine innings pitched. He’s posted a superhuman 17.6 percent swinging-strike rate — including a 19 percent rate in 2020. Meanwhile, he induced chases on pitches out of the strike zone at a whopping 38.1 percent this year (35.1 percent dating back ti ’19). That he was named reliever of the year in the American League came as little surprise.

On many clubs, making a qualifying offer to Hendriks would be a no-brainer. However, the A’s perennially operate with one of the league’s lowest payrolls and are just months removed from having to be publicly pressured into paying their minor leaguers a $400 weekly stipend. An $18.9MM salary on a reliever could well be something they’re not prepared to risk. From Hendriks’ vantage point, he’s just north of $12MM in career earnings, so an $18.9MM paycheck would surely be tempting.

At the same time, Hendriks surely took note when a less-dominant reliever, left-hander Will Smith, rejected a qualifying offer last year and still secured a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves. If his camp believes such a deal is out there, then rejecting would be a better move; even in a worst-case scenario, he’d surely be able to command a sizable one-year deal in free agency — albeit likely not at that $18.9MM level. But if Hendriks believes the downside of rejecting a qualifying offer is, say, a one-year deal at $10MM, he’d be risking the $8.9MM difference for a multi-year deal that guarantees him perhaps $20MM or more beyond the value of the qualifying offer.

All of this, of course, could be a moot point. The A’s might decide that they don’t want to risk a qualifying offer for either player. They’re already on the hook for $16.5MM to Khris Davis, $7.25MM to Stephen Piscotty and $4MM to Jake Diekman next year. They’ll also see both Matt Chapman and Matt Olson receive sizable salary bumps as they enter arbitration for the first time — the headliners in a class which also features Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Mark Canha and Frankie Montas, among others. Projecting arbitration salaries for that bunch is trickier than ever given the shortened season and revenue losses, but they should command more than $20MM.

There are some split camps on how the A’s will proceed on this front. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested on the former’s podcast last week that they still feel there’s a good chance Semien will receive an offer. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweeted recently, however, that a qualifying offer for Semien may not be realistic given the heft of that would-be salary.

The A’s were already slated to head into the 2020 season with what would’ve been a record payroll, just north of $100MM, prior to prorating this year’s salaries. Between the guarantees to Davis, Piscotty and Diekman; the arbitration raises to Chapman, Olson, Manaea, Bassitt, Canha and Montas; and the would-be $18.9MM salaries to Semien and Hendriks (should they accept), the A’s would already be close to $90MM. That’s before factoring in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster and any offseason additions they might hope to make.

Frankly, it’s difficult to see this club being willing to take this type of risk, although there’s an argument to be made in favor of both. A one-year deal for Semien would prove to be a nice value, for instance, if he rebounds to something between his 2019 and 2020 levels. And Smith’s contract with the Braves last year certainly lends credence to the idea that Hendriks could reject, which would give the A’s a valuable compensatory draft pick if he departs.

Let’s open this up for MLBTR readers to weigh in on a pair of questions:

Should the A’s make a qualifying offer to Semien and/or Hendriks? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)


Will the A’s make a qualifying offer to Semien and/or Hendriks? (Link to poll for app users)

Athletics Hope To Retain Marcus Semien

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With the Athletics’ season having ended in disappointing fashion in an ALDS loss to the Astros, they’re turning their focus to important winter matters. The A’s have multiple notable pending free agents, including Marcus Semien, and they hope to retain the shortstop, general manager David Forst informed Martin Gallegos of MLB.com and other reporters on Friday.

“I told him we would love to have him back here,” Forst said to Semien in a text message. “We’ve had an open line of communication with him and his agent. That will certainly be one of the topics for this offseason.”

A year ago at this time, Semien looked like one of the premier players in baseball. He was then coming off an MVP-caliber effort that saw him slash .285/.369/.522 with 33 home runs, 10 stolen bases and 7.6 fWAR in a 162-game, 747-plate appearance season. Prior to that, Semien was closer to a league-average hitter, and he returned to that form in 2020. The 30-year-old concluded with a .223/.305/.374 mark and seven homers over 236 PA, which won’t serve him well as he nears his first trip to free agency.

If the A’s aren’t able to extend Semien in the next few weeks, they’ll have to decide whether to hand him a qualifying offer worth $18.9MM. But they’ll have to make the same choice with elite reliever Liam Hendriks, and it’s hard to believe the small-budget A’s would risk committing so much money to both players. Regardless, if Semien does become a free agent, he’ll join Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons and soon-to-be posted KBO star Ha-Seong Kim as one of the top shortstops on the market.

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