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Marco Gonzales

Mariners, Phillies, Yankees, Explored Deadline Trade Involving Marco Gonzales, Joey Gallo

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Prior to the August 2 trade deadline, the Mariners, Phillies, and Yankees had some negotiations about a potential three-team swap, according to The Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish.  Left-hander Marco Gonzales would’ve headed to Philadelphia and outfielder Joey Gallo “possibly” would’ve been dealt to the Mariners, though it isn’t known what player or players New York would’ve acquired in this proposed deal.

As it turned out, the Yankees instead moved Gallo to the Dodgers for pitching prospect Clayton Beeter, with Los Angeles absorbing the roughly $3.7MM remaining on Gallo’s 2022 salary at the time of the deadline.  The Phillies added Noah Syndergaard to their rotation rather than Gonzales, who stayed put in the Pacific Northwest.  Rather than move Gonzales or any other starters, the Mariners instead added to their rotation depth with a blockbuster trade to pry Luis Castillo away from the Reds.

Teams routinely discuss all manner of trades in the days and months prior to deadline day, and it isn’t known if this particular three-team deal (or even some permutation of a deal) was anywhere close to becoming a reality.  However, this floated trade certainly carries plenty of “what if?” consideration given that the three connected teams all made deep playoff runs, with the Phillies in particular reaching the World Series.  Also, given that Gallo is a free agent and Gonzales is still drawing trade interest, it’s worth wondering if those past summer trade talks could influence some moves yet to come this winter.

Let’s begin with Gallo, who struggled through a rough 2022 season but still had some value for a Mariners team that was looking for outfield depth.  In the lead-up to the deadline, Julio Rodriguez was battling wrist problems and Mitch Haniger was still on the 60-day injured list recovering from a high ankle sprain.  Utility options Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty were also banged up, and the M’s weren’t satisfied with what Jesse Winker or Jarred Kelenic were bringing to the table.  As Divish noted both in this piece and back in July, the M’s were actually exploring trading either Winker or Kelenic.

The two remain trade candidates in the offseason, and the Mariners are still looking for outfield help in general.  However, the M’s have already landed one new everyday corner outfielder in Teoscar Hernandez, and dealt Kyle Lewis to the Diamondbacks in another trade, so the Seattle outfield picture is quite different than it was back in July and early August.  It isn’t out of the question that the M’s could still make a play to land Gallo, though he might be more of a backup plan if such higher-tier free agents (i.e. Brandon Nimmo, Andrew Benintendi) couldn’t be signed.  Winker, Kelenic, and Taylor Trammell are all left-handed hitters, so it could also be possible Seattle would trade from this surplus before looking into signing Gallo.

Pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park might not be the ideal spot for a power-centric player like Gallo to rebuild his value, and the slugger has only a .190/275/.372 slash line over 153 plate appearances at T-Mobile as a visiting player.  That said, Gallo had a 4.2 fWAR season as recently as 2021, and could regain some of his old form simply with another change of scenery after his lackluster showings in New York and Los Angeles.

It was an odd season for Gallo, who had some of the game’s best walk, hard-hit ball, and barrel rates.  He also had a 39.8% strikeout rate (far and away the worst of any player with at least 400 plate appearances), as Gallo’s “three true outcomes” approach was carried to absurd extremes.  Unfortunately for Gallo, the third outcome wasn’t quite as extreme, as he hit 19 homers in 401 PA and his .197 Isolated Power metric was well below the .283 career IP he posted from 2015-21.

Gallo struggled whether or not he faced defensive shifts in 2022, and he actually had a better wOBA against the shift than without facing shifts (.350 to .323) in 2021.  That said, the new rules limiting the use of shifts might have at least some impact on improving Gallo’s numbers, given opposing teams regularly deployed the shift against Gallo over 90% of the time.

There has been a lot of speculation about whether or not Seattle could trade at least one of Gonzales or Chris Flexen this winter, since the M’s have been connected to Kodai Senga and Matt Brash is also on hand as a potential fifth starter.  The rest of the rotation is set, with Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby forming an impressive quartet of arms.  Gonzales (who turns 31 in February) is over two years older than Flexen, and is more expensive — Gonzales is owed $6.5MM in 2023 and $12MM in 2024, while Flexen is only under contract through the 2023 season on an $8MM salary.

Given Gonzales’ longer-term contract, the Phillies seemingly had interest in the left-hander as more than just a rental player, so it would stand to reason that he might still be on their radar heading into 2023.  With Syndergaard, Zach Eflin, and Kyle Gibson hitting free agency, the Phillies could use a durable veteran like Gonzales to reinforce the back end of their rotation.

Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are Philadelphia’s two aces, Ranger Suarez has emerged as a solid starter, and the inexperienced Bailey Falter and Michael Plassmeyer are penciled into the final two rotation spots at the moment.  Top prospects Andrew Painter and Mick Abel could both enter the Major League picture before 2023 is out, but with the Phillies in clear win-now mode, relying on Falter, Plassmeyer, Painter, and Abel for as many as two rotation spots probably isn’t ideal.  It wouldn’t even be a shock to see the Phils acquire one big-ticket arm to join Nola and Wheeler at the front of the rotation, and then a more moderately-priced hurler like Gonzales as a fifth starter.

Mariners Discussing Jesse Winker In Trade Talks

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The Mariners are in active trade discussions as today’s 5pm CT deadline to set rosters prior to next month’s Rule 5 Draft looms, and they’re showing a willingness to move left fielder/designated hitter Jesse Winker, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). As has been expected for some time now, the M’s have also discussed potential trades involving fifth starter candidates Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales, Morosi further adds, though the team has not yet engaged in a scenario where Winker and one of those pitchers would be moved in the same package.

Moving on from Winker would be selling low on a player whom the Mariners acquired last offseason, hoping at the time that Winker could be a key middle-of-the-lineup fixture. In the two seasons prior to that trade, Winker was one of the game’s three best hitters against right-handed pitching, trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper in terms of wRC+. He posted a Herculean .321/.417/.619 batting line in 509 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, and while his production against fellow lefties was nowhere near that level, he still walked at a 12% clip against them, resulting in a .314 OBP. His .199 average and .338 slugging against lefties were dismal, but at the very least, Winker could get on base at a near-average clip in when in disadvantageous platoon matchups.

What followed in 2022, however, was the worst season of Winker’s career by nearly any measure. He did walk at a career-best 15.4% clip as a Mariner, but the 29-year-old’s .219/.344/.344 batting line was generally underwhelming — especially considering he was acquired in hopes of providing some left-handed power to the lineup. Winker’s .125 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) was the lowest mark of his career. And, while he’s never been considered a plus defender in the outfield, Winker’s defensive ratings across the board in 2022 were career-worsts (-16 Defensive Runs Saved, -7.2 Ultimate Zone Rating, -10 Outs Above Average).

Poor 2022 season notwithstanding, Winker has a strong track record at the plate and could be viewed by other clubs as a decent candidate to rebound. In his five seasons with the Reds, dating back to his 2017 debut, Winker turned in a collective .288/.385/.504 batting line — about 32% better than the average hitter after weighting for his home park and league.

Winker is also rather affordable. He’s entering what would have been his final arbitration season but is already signed for $8.25MM, having agreed to a two-year, $14.5MM contract with the Mariners just last season. If he’s able to approach anything close to his Reds form in 2023, that’ll be an eminently reasonable price to pay.

It bears mentioning that there could be other factors at play as the Mariners field interest in Winker. In an October appearance on 710 AM Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk Show, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times laid out, in detail, the manner in which Winker fell out of favor within the Mariners clubhouse over the course of the season. (Mike Axisa of CBS Sports transcribed the meat of Divish’s segment, for those interested in the full scope of the comments.) Add in the fact that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has already spoken publicly about his desire to add at least one, if not two outfielders to his team this winter, and there’s plenty of reason to believe the Mariners’ outfield mix will look different in 2023 (though AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez is an obvious lock to return).

Of course, the trade that brought Winker to Seattle wasn’t all bad — far from it. In order to acquire Winker, Seattle gave up pitching prospect Brandon Williamson, outfielder Jake Fraley and righty Justin Dunn and took on a notable portion of a contract the Reds were seeking to escape … that of Eugenio Suarez. It’s a move the Mariners may not have made had they believed Suarez was beyond hope after a rough 2020-21 showing in Cincinnati, but he bounced back to an even greater extent than most optimists could’ve forecast.

After hitting .199 /.293/.440 with the Reds in 2020-21, Suarez logged a resurgent .236/.332/.459 batting line with 31 home runs, 24 doubles, a pair of triples and roughly average defense at the hot corner. Both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs pegged his 2022 season around four wins above replacement, and Suarez remains signed for another two years and $24MM (plus a club option for the 2025 campaign).

Dipoto: Mariners Getting Trade Interest In Chris Flexen

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With six starters on the Mariners’ roster at the moment, fifth starter candidates Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen have both emerged as potential trade candidates. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto confirmed at today’s GM Meetings that other clubs were showing interest in Flexen back at the trade deadline and have expressed continued interest in the right-hander throughout this week’s GM Meetings in Las Vegas (Twitter link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

Flexen isn’t the only Mariners arm who’s drawn interest; Dipoto told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that his team is “getting hit constantly, up and down, with our bullpen, our starters.” However, Dipoto also stressed that he doesn’t plan to subtract from his bullpen via trade, but rather hopes to further augment an already strong relief corps.

As things stand, the Mariners have a deep rotation — with six starters for five spots. Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby make up one of the sport’s best rotation quartets, and they’re trailed by a pair of solid fifth starter options in Flexen and longtime Mariner Marco Gonzales. Seattle also has young Matt Brash as a potential option, and while the thinking is that he’s likely bullpen-bound for the foreseeable future, Dipoto told Divish that Brash would head to Spring Training stretched out as a starter and be downshifted into a relief role if the rotation remained healthy and did not undergo any other changes.

Those potential changes, quite likely, are in reference to a possible trade of Flexen and/or Gonzales. While neither is going to front any team’s rotation, both pitchers are serviceable options in the fourth or fifth spot of a starting staff, and both are relatively affordable. Flexen is set to earn $8MM next season after triggering a vesting option on his contract. He’ll only have three-plus years of service time at that point, but MLBTR has confirmed that the two-year deal Flexen signed upon returning from the KBO allows him to become a free agent next winter. As such, he’s a one-year rental.

Since returning from a one-year stint in the KBO, the 28-year-old Flexen has pitched 317 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA ball for the Mariners. His 16.5% strikeout rate has been well south of league-average, but he’s better than average in terms of walk rate (6.8%) and limiting home runs (1.02 HR/9). Flexen has also averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start and done a decent job minimizing hard contact.

As for Gonzales, a trade would be tougher to piece together. He’ll turn 31 in February, making him a good bit older than Flexen, and while his $6.5MM salary for the 2023 season is more affordable than that of Flexen, Gonzales is also owed $12MM in 2024. His contract contains a $15MM option for the 2025 season, though that option has no buyout.

Two years at a combined $18.5MM isn’t necessarily egregious for Gonzales, but it’s likely more than he’d fetch in the open market at present. He’s made 67 starts and soaked up 326 1/3 innings with a 4.05 ERA over the past two seasons, but Gonzales has seen his fastball velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and home run rate all trend in the wrong direction. Metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him about a full run worse than his ERA.

Logically speaking, the Mariners appear to be headed toward some form of move involving one of their two back-of-the-rotation options. Flexen, in particular, would seem appealing given the short term remaining on his contract and more reasonable overall commitment, though that’s only my own speculation.

Moving either player would help the Mariners to scale back a projected $131MM payroll next season (hat tip: Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez), not that they necessarily need to. The team’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll was $158MM back in 2018, and they took their payroll north of $170MM each year from 2016-18 by way of in-season trades (via Cot’s). That should leave ample payroll space regardless of how the team acts with regard to its rotation.

Still, spending a combined $14.5MM in 2023 payroll on a pair of fifth-starter candidates is, obviously, a sub-optimal arrangement. Shedding some or all of that combined salary will only give Dipoto and his staff more flexibility when it comes to offseason pursuits, and it’s possible that Flexen in particular could help net some immediate help for the big league roster (perhaps with some minor league talent being included by Seattle). As far as potential other targets, Dipoto has already acknowledged that he feels NPB ace Kodai Senga could be an “impact” MLB arm, and he mentioned in the aforementioned Rosenthal column that his club could seek a middle infielder and at least one — if not two — corner outfielders this winter.

Roster Notes: Mariners, Tigers, Indians, Rockies, Mets

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The Mariners have reinstated Marco Gonzales from the paternity list, the team announced. Donovan Walton has been optioned to Triple-A to create the roster spot. Gonzalez was gone for just a couple of days, and he’ll step right back into his rotation spot. Walton, meanwhile, has appeared in 21 games and posted a .205/.254/.365 line.

Let’s make the rounds and check in on some roster moves and injury updates…

  • The Tigers and Indians will play a doubleheader today, meaning both teams get to add a 27th man for the day. The Indians have brought up infielder Owen Miller, per Mandy Bell (via Twitter). The Tigers, meanwhile, will add Derek Hill, who only recently has been healthy enough to return from the injured list.
  • Ryan Castellani has cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A, the Rockies announced. Castellani made one start for the Rockies this year, tossing 3 1/3 innings and allowing two earned runs. The 25-year-old will look to put together more productive outings in Triple-A where he owns a 7.82 ERA across 35 2/3 innings.
  • Mets infielders Jonathan Villar and J.D. Davis will both begin rehab assignments with the Syracuse Mets today, tweets Tim Britton of The Athletic. What began as a hand contusion has ended up keeping Davis out for all but 14 games of the season thus far. Villar filled in ably for much of the year, but he, too, went down with a calf strain. Both now appear to be on the mend.

Mariners Activate Marco Gonzales, Recall Taylor Trammell, Place Kyle Lewis On 10-Day Injured List, Option Robert Dugger

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The Mariners announced a slew of impactful roster moves this afternoon, starting with the reigning Rookie of the Year in the American League Kyle Lewis going back on the injured list – this time with a right meniscus tear, per the team. Robert Dugger also departs; Seattle optioned the right-hander to Triple-A.

In good news, Marco Gonzales is re-joining the team from the injured list, as anticipated. He will start tonight’s ballgame for the Mariners. If the third-place M’s are going to make an unexpected run at relevancy this year, they’ll need Gonzales to be a force in the rotation. He has made five starts on the season with a 5.40 ERA/5.52 FIP.

As for Lewis, it’s not yet clear if the tear is significant, but he has had multiple procedures performed on that knee, notes Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. That’s certainly not ideal for a player like Lewis, whose athleticism is a key asset. He has appeared in just 36 of the Mariners’ 55 games this season, posting 0.7 bWAR and a 112 wRC+ in that time.

While losing Lewis definitely smarts, Mariners’ fans will have another young outfielder to tune in for: Taylor Trammell has been recalled after a successful stint in Triple-A. Trammell posted some highlights at the start of the season, but ultimately slumped to a .157/.255/.337 line in 95 plate appearances.

It’s easy to forget because he’s been traded twice, but Trammell remains a top prospect, and he’s still just 23 years old. Prior to this season, he had not played about Double-A, but he found himself on the opening day roster nevertheless. When he was optioned on May 13th, then, it was his first thwack at Triple-A, and he took it: .384/.413/.726 with six home runs in 80 plate appearances for the Tacoma Rainiers.

Finally, Dugger returns to the minors with a 6.06 ERA in eight appearances (two starts). A 4.83 FIP suggests Dugger has dealt with a touch of small-sample bad luck. The former Marlin has induced a 39.6 percent groundball rate with a 22.1 percent strikeout rate and 8.3 percent walk rate in 16 1/3 innings for Seattle’s parent club.

Mariners To Activate Marco Gonzales On June 1

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Mariners left-hander Marco Gonzales will make his return from the injured list June 1 with a start against the Athletics, according to manager Scott Servais (via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). The Mariners are easing Gonzales back in, as the plan is for him to pitch three to four innings.

Gonzales hasn’t taken the mound since April 27 on account of a forearm strain, but considering the nature of the injury, it’s a relief that he’ll only miss just over a month. The 29-year-old put up a brutal two starts to open his 2021, but he was beginning to round into form before heading to the IL. In his three most recent starts, Gonzales surrendered just five earned runs on 10 hits in 18 innings, and he totaled 15 strikeouts against six walks.

Overall this year, Gonzales has recorded a 5.40 ERA/4.85 SIERA with a 19.0 percent strikeout rate against a 9.1 percent walk rate in 28 1/3 innings. Those aren’t impressive numbers, but the 29-year-old showed he’s a quality starter from 2018-20, especially last season. Gonzales tied the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks for the lowest walk percentage (2.5) among qualified starters in 2020, helping him to a 3.10 ERA over 69 2/3 frames.

West Notes: Belt, Bellinger, Gonzales, Pomeranz, Adell

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The Giants are placing first baseman Brandon Belt on the 10-day injured list with a mild left oblique strain and recalling infielder Jason Vosler, per manager Gabe Kapler (via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Kapler doesn’t expect Belt to miss more than 10 to 14 days, and in the meantime, Darin Ruf will get the lion’s share of playing time at first base. Even a short absence for Belt could be a tough blow for the contending Giants, though, considering he’s off to a .228/.350/.447 start with eight home runs in 137 plate appearances. However, Ruf has also hit well – albeit over a smaller sample of 97 PA – with a .228/.361/.506 line and six long balls.

  • The Dodgers are hopeful that slugger Cody Bellinger will return from the injured list on Saturday, manager Dave Roberts told Juan Toribio of MLB.com and other reporters. Los Angeles has gone nearly the entire season without Bellinger, who suffered a hairline fracture in his left leg and hasn’t played since April 5. Nevertheless, the reigning World Series champions have more than held their own in Bellinger’s absence, having won eight straight to improve to 30-18.
  • Mariners left-hander Marco Gonzales, out since April with a forearm strain, is making progress and could come back during the team’s upcoming homestand (May 27-June 2), per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times. Gonzales was one of the top starters in the league year, but he’s off to a rough beginning this season between the injury and his performance. Before going on the IL, Gonzales recorded a surprisingly poor 5.40 ERA/4.87 SIERA in 28 1/3 innings, and his walk rate skyrocketed compared to 2020. He issued walks just 2.5 percent of the time then, but he’s up to 9.1 now.
  • Padres reliever Drew Pomeranz has suffered a setback in his recovery from a left shoulder impingement, manager Jayce Tingler announced to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com and other reporters. The Padres will shut Pomeranz down from throwing for about a week and then decide how to proceed. Unfortunately, injuries have been a common problem since Pomeranz’s career began in 2011. When healthy, though, he has been a revelation for the Padres since they inked him to a four-year, $34MM contract before 2020. Dating back to then, the 32-year-old has registered a 1.67 ERA with a highly impressive 38 percent strikeout rate in 32 1/3 innings, including 13 2/3 this season.
  • Despite his encouraging start to the season at the Triple-A level, the Angels have not recalled top outfield prospect Jo Adell. That doesn’t look as if it’s going to change imminently, as general manager Perry Minasian said Tuesday (via Bill Shaikin of the LA Times): “He’s making some strides. He’s not there yet.” While the 22-year-old Adell has hit a power-packed .266/.326/.696 with 10 home runs in 86 plate appearances, he has posted a high strikeout rate of 33.7 percent at the same time. Strikeouts have been an issue over the past few years for Adell, including during his major league debut last season. He fanned in 41.7 percent of his 132 PA then and batted a woeful .161/.212/.266.

Mariners Place Marco Gonzales On Injured List

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The Mariners are placing left-hander Marco Gonzales on the 10-day injured list after a Wednesday MRI revealed a left forearm strain, tweets Corey Brock of The Athletic. Manager Scott Servais tells reporters that Gonzales will miss at least “a couple starts.” He’s already begun treatment. Righty Domingo Tapia is being called up from the taxi squad to take Gonzales’ spot on the roster, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times.

It’s been a rough start to the season for the typically steady Gonzales. The 29-year-old has been the Mariners’ best pitcher in recent years and quietly been one of the league’s more effective lefties overall. From 2018-20, the former Cardinals first-rounder pitched to a 3.85 ERA with a 19.5 percent strikeout rate, a 5.2 percent walk rate and a 41.8 percent grounder rate. Along the way, Seattle inked Gonzales to a four-year, $30MM contract extension that includes a club option for the 2025 season as well.

Gonzales hasn’t looked much like himself this season, logging an ugly 5.40 ERA (4.80 SIERA) through his first five starts, which have lasted just 28 1/3 frames. Gonzales’ 19 percent strikeout rate is down from last year’s 23.1 percent (although close to his combined 2018-20 rate), but his 9.1 percent walk rate is his worst since his 2014 rookie campaign in St. Louis. His 88.1 mph average fastball velocity is also 1.8 mph south of his career mark.

However, it doesn’t appear that the forearm strain is at the root of those issues — or at least, Gonzales isn’t using it as any kind of excuse. Divish tweets that Gonzales says he only felt the discomfort crop up after his last outing. And to be fair to Gonzales, he’s fared quite a bit better in his three most recent starts than he did in his first two outings of the year. The lefty held the Dodgers to a run on six hits and a walk last week before limiting Houston to a pair of runs in six frames as recently as Monday.

Gonzales joins James Paxton (season-ending surgery) and Nick Margevicius (shoulder inflammation) as rotation arms on the injured list for Seattle. With that group sidelined, the M’s will look to Justus Sheffield, Chris Flexen, Yusei Kikuchi and Justin Dunn in the rotation. Their starter for Saturday’s game is still listed as TBD, though long relievers Ljay Newsome and/or Robert Dugger could perhaps step into that spot to head up a bullpen game.

Seattle also has some notable top pitching prospects thought to be on the cusp of big league readiness — 2018 first-rounder Logan Gilbert chief among them. Gilbert, the game’s No. 35 overall prospect at Baseball America, breezed through three minor league levels in his lone season of minor league ball in 2019. Through 135 levels spread across Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A, he worked to a 2.13 ERA with 165 strikeouts (31.7 percent) against just 33 walks (6.3 percent).

Mariners Likely To Open With Six-Man Rotation

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The Mariners are planning to begin the season with a six-man rotation in place, general manager Jerry Dipoto told reporters yesterday (Twitter link via Greg Johns of MLB.com). That tactic should allow the Seattle club the opportunity to manage the innings of younger arms on a per-game basis while also maximizing their opportunity to evaluate some up-and-coming arms who could factor into the long-term outlook.

Recently extended southpaw Marco Gonzales seems likely to get the Opening Day nod as the Mariners’ most established starter, and the team will hope for better results from 29-year-old lefty Yusei Kikuchi in the second season of his uniquely structured free-agent deal. Kikuchi, who had established himself as one of Nippon Professional Baseball’s premier arms prior to 2019, is locked in at $43MM from 2019-21. After the contract’s third year, Seattle can pick up a four-year, $66MM “option.” If the club declines to do so, Kikuchi can instead exercise a $13MM player option. In essence, he’s guaranteed $56MM over four years, while the M’s have the opportunity to lock him up at what would be a total of seven years and $109MM if he takes his game to a new level between now and the completion of the 2021 campaign.

Beyond that pair of lefties, Seattle will get longer looks at southpaw Justus Sheffield and righty Justin Dunn — two key trade acquisitions that came over in the 2018-19 offseason. Sheffield, a former first-rounder and longtime top prospect, was the headline piece of the trade that sent James Paxton to the Yankees. Dunn came to the Mariners alongside vaunted outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic and righty reliever Gerson Bautista in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz blockbuster.

The Mariners also rolled the dice on a pair of low-cost free agents this winter, nabbing former division rival Kendall Graveman and former Mariner Taijuan Walker on one-year pacts. Both have seen their careers slowed by 2018 Tommy John surgery. Graveman, who had his procedure in late July that year, didn’t make it back to the big leagues in 2019. Walker’s surgery was in April 2018, but a strained shoulder capsule limited him to one inning in 2019, which came in the final game of the season.

As one would expect from a rebuilding club, the Mariners have plenty of other young options to dream on, though the organization’s very best pitching prospects are likely a bit too far down the pipeline to factor into the 2020 season. The Mariners have selected a college right-hander with their top pick in each of the past three drafts — Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and now Emerson Hancock — and while that trio is unlikely to pitch in the Majors this year (Gilbert being the lone plausible exception), Dipoto did suggest that they and other top prospects could be on the taxi squad primarily for developmental purposes (link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). Working out with other taxi squad members would give that promising group critical developmental reps in a year where no formal minor league season is expected to be played.

An Unpopular Trade Paying Off In Seattle

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The Mariners’ rebuild began in earnest following a disappointing finish to the 2018 season, when GM Jerry Dipoto first began talk of re-imagining his roster. The M’s have added a bevy of prospects since that time, highlighted by Jarred Kelenic and Justus Sheffield, but one of their most important long-term pieces was acquired on July 21 in 2017, when the club was still aiming for immediate contention.

That day saw Seattle trade slugging minor league outfielder Tyler O’Neill to the Cardinals in exchange for left-hander Marco Gonzales. The now-28-year-old Gonzales has become a fixture in the rotation, but the trade wasn’t exactly well-received among M’s fans at the time. The club was below .500 but just 1.5 games back from a Wild Card spot at the time of the swap. Dipoto had been trying to acquire young pitching, hoping to add to his core while also remaining competitive in a top-heavy American League. (The 85-win Twins claimed the league’s second Wild Card position that year.)

Marco Gonzales | Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The consensus among Mariners fans at the time of the swap was, essentially, “Why would they do this?” Social media reactions to the deal weren’t favorable, and looking through the comments on the trade’s writeup at MLBTR, FanGraphs or most other sites reveals a similarly perplexed set of replies. O’Neill had entered that year as one of the game’s 100 best prospects and the second-best in the Mariners organization, while Gonzales had made just one appearance in the Majors since returning from 2016 Tommy John surgery. He was having a nice season in Triple-A, but most scouting reports on him pegged Gonzales as a mid-rotation arm, at best. In addition to that Tommy John surgery, he battled shoulder troubles in 2015.

Injury risk or not, Dipoto was undeterred. The Mariners’ GM spoke the day before the trade about only being willing to deal from his premium prospects if it meant acquiring a long-term rotation piece, and days after the swap he called Gonzales “about as big-league-ready as a Triple-A pitcher could be.” Sure enough, Gonzales was in the big leagues less than three weeks later.

The initial results did little to assuage the concerns of Seattle fans. Gonzales pitched just 36 2/3 innings of 5.40 ERA ball down the stretch as the Mariners again fell shy of the postseason. O’Neill hit .253/.304/.548 with a dozen homers in 37 Triple-A games following the trade that year. On-base questions notwithstanding, the power was still impressive and Mariners fans were skeptical of the lefty for whom O’Neill had been shipped out.

Despite that lackluster showing, Gonzales opened the 2018 season in the Seattle starting five. His early work didn’t inspire much confidence, but after four shaky starts, Gonzales settled into a groove and pitched to a 3.60 ERA over his final 150 innings, averaging 7.6 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 along the way. In 2019, Gonzales posted a 3.99 ERA that was nearly identical to his 4.00 ERA from 2018 — but he did it in a larger sample of 203 frames.

Setting aside his rocky debut in 2018, Gonzales has given the Mariners 369 2/3 frames of 3.99 ERA ball with an even better 3.83 FIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.97 HR/9 and a 42.5 percent ground-ball rate. From 2018-19, he was worth 6.0 bWAR and 7.1 fWAR. The rebuilding Mariners made clear that they view Gonzales as a core piece back in February, signing the southpaw to a four-year, $30MM contract extension (2021-24) that also contains a $15MM club option for the 2025 season.

The trade would likely look like a solid one for the Mariners even if O’Neill had blossomed into an everyday corner outfielder. That hasn’t happened yet, however. While Gonzales was solidifying himself in the Mariners’ rotation, O’Neill was bouncing back and forth between Triple-A and St. Louis, hitting a combined .258/.307/.454 with 14 home runs in 293 plate appearances. The power has been good but not elite, and O’Neill’s contact struggles have indeed been magnified against MLB pitching; he’s punched out 110 times in those 293 plate appearances (37.5 percent).

To be fair to O’Neill, he hasn’t exactly been given a real opportunity to win an everyday job. Just months after he was traded to St. Louis, the Cardinals went out and acquired two years of control over Marcell Ozuna in a trade that sent Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen and Magneuris Sierra to the Marlins. With Ozuna, Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham (in 2018) and Harrison Bader all logging considerable time in the St. Louis outfield, opportunities for O’Neill have been sparse. But the very fact that the Cards felt it necessary to pursue a Giancarlo Stanton acquisition and then pull off a deal for Ozuna speaks to some level of question in O’Neill’s readiness.

The Cards didn’t add a left fielder to replace the departing Ozuna this winter, but they also have uber-prospect Dylan Carlson nearing the Majors. Even if Carlson seizes an outfield spot, the likely implementation of the universal DH will give O’Neill some additional opportunities to get into the lineup, so perhaps he’ll finally get the chance to justify the deal from the St. Louis end. The Cards haven’t exactly been hurting for pitching even without Gonzales in the fold, but there’s no denying he’s been the more valuable piece of the straight-up swap to this point.

The Gonzales/O’Neill trade won’t be looked back upon as any time of blockbuster, but it offers some reminders when judging future trades:

  • Prospect rankings are useful and entertaining, but it’s easy to overemphasize them. Prospect values are in a constant state of flux. Even a few weeks and certainly a couple months can change the opinion on a prospect. Whether it’s adding a new pitch, adding/losing velocity, outgrowing a position, altering mechanics at the plate or any number of other changes a player can exhibit, a prospect’s value can alter in a hurry.
  • It’s too easy to write off post-hype prospects. Gonzales himself was a first-round pick and top-100 prospect prior to injury troubles. At the time of the O’Neill trade, he was less than two years removed from ranking as the game’s No. 50 prospect, per Baseball America. A recent top prospect with some big league experience and four to five years of control is generally still a valuable piece even if he’s not a star. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently looked at another player fitting this mold: Pittsburgh’s Joe Musgrove.
  • Position scarcity matters. We’ve seen corner outfielders and first baseman go for smaller returns on the trade market and in free agency in recent seasons. Part of the Mariners’ calculus was surely that a corner outfielder with some on-base questions was easier to come by than an affordable mid-rotation starter, even if the latter carried considerably more risk.

In some regards, the end result of this trade is common. “Team gets one of its best pitchers by trading away key prospect” is hardly a unique storyline in baseball, but the manner in which the Mariners went about this particular instance of that narrative isn’t typical. The result speaks for itself right now, though. And while O’Neill can still change how we look at the deal in the long run, it’s worked out about as well as the Mariners could’ve hoped.

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