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Marco Estrada

Marco Estrada Happy To Be Back With Blue Jays

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Marco Estrada’s first experience through free agency was over before it could even get underway.  In November, following a career year, the right-hander agreed to return to Toronto on a two-year deal worth $26MM.  Estrada would have liked to take his time on the open market, but after careful consideration, the hurler decided that he would be better off taking a two-year deal from Toronto rather than accept the one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer.

“I wanted to test it just to see what it was like. I probably would have returned to this team anyway. I did want to test the market. Who doesn’t?,” Estrada told MLBTR during a one-on-one chat in Dunedin, Florida.  “I’ve never been through free agency and I was coming off of a really good year so why not test free agency? I didn’t get to experience it, but I’m happy with my decision. I’m glad to be back and I’m happy with how my deal worked out. But, it would have been nice to see what it’s like. Who knows, maybe two years from now I’ll try free agency.”

The veteran pitcher and his reps at TWC Sports pushed hard for a three- or four-year commitment from the Blue Jays, but they ultimately agreed to the two-year offer.  From the sound of it, the Blue Jays were firmly against giving the 32-year-old (33 in July) a longer deal.

“We tried to get a third or fourth year.  I don’t think it was ever going to be close on their part.  Obviously, I tried.  I wanted less money for more years, but they didn’t want to do it.  It’s fine.  I like the deal I got now.  I guess the AAV went up and it was only two years but, it’s good, you know, I can’t complain,” Estrada said.

Even after seeing many of the offseason’s top available pitchers rocket past their projected earnings, it’s not clear whether Estrada could have netted a hefty three- or four- year pact.  Estrada, on one hand, ended the season with a strong 3.13 ERA over 181 innings.  The advanced stats aren’t as kind to him, however.  As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted in November, Estrada wound up with a career-low 8.7% HR/FB rate and a .216 batting average on balls in play, factors that surely played a role in his breakout year.

Regardless of the contract, Estrada is happy to be back in Toronto for two more seasons.

“I look at the team that came back and it’s a pretty solid team. It’s not a lineup I’d like to face, I’ll tell you that right now,” the pitcher said. “Knowing I’m going to have these guys behind me, not just the offense they give me, but the defense. Nobody ever talks about the defense here and I think we’ve got one of the best defensive teams in the league. A guy like me, I need a good defense behind me, so why not come back here and have these guys play hard for me?”

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL East Notes: Fowler, Markakis, Estrada, Cessa, Murphy

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In a recent interview on MLB Network Radio (Twitter links), Orioles executive Dan Duquette further responded to recent comments by agent Casey Close regarding the Dexter Fowler talks. “It would’ve been a good fit for us. We’re disappointed the deal didn’t come together [but] that’s the way it goes sometimes,” Duquette said. Duquette went on to say that he was puzzled by the statement and he didn’t quite understand why Close was upset. “When you show sincere interest in a player, it helps him get a better deal,” said the Orioles GM.

Here’s more out of Baltimore and the rest of the AL East:

  • The Orioles tried to open a conversation with the Braves about bringing back former right fielder Nick Markakis, Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com tweets. But Atlanta seemingly showed little interest in trying to work out a swap, per the report.
  • The qualifying offer had an impact not only on Fowler, but also on one player who never fully tested the market: Marco Estrada, who struck a two-year deal to remain with the Blue Jays. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca looks at the different experiences of Estrada and fellow Toronto signee J.A. Happ, who says he had interest from a dozen clubs on the first day of free agency. Estrada, meanwhile, says he “didn’t get a chance to really go through that process.” He added that he “probably should have done a better job of” assessing his market during his week-long consideration of the QO, and wishes he “could have gotten more years” in his deal, but ultimately says he’s happy to return to the Jays and was able to enjoy a more relaxing offseason after his early deal.
  • Yankees righty Luis Cessa will get a shot to make it as a starter after being involved in several prominent trades, as Ken Davidoff of the New York Post writes. GM Brian Cashman said that adding Cessa and Chad Green in exchange for Justin Wilson was about getting quality pitchers who provide the team with options. “We think he has starter capability, just like we think Green has starter capability,” Cashman said. “And then if not, all failed starters go to the pen. We feel we acquired, in Cessa’s case, a strike-thrower with a good arm.”
  • Newly-signed Red Sox outfielder David Murphy says that it’s “surreal” to return to the Boston organization, as Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald reports. Murphy says he knew he “was going to have to be patient” this winter, but nevertheless was surprised with how quiet market turned out to be. But he says he’s ready to “turn the page” on his disappointing winter and is looking forward to trying to crack the roster with the Red Sox — or, failing that, another club.

Blue Jays Notes: Rotation, Bullpen, Price

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The Blue Jays have committed about $130MM to their 2016 roster, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. The club has signed three mid-rotation starters to go with three already signed options. GM Tony LaCava will continue to search for pitching, both starters and relievers. Per LaCava, “we do think the offence is one of the best in the game, so we’re not really interested in looking too much at improving that.” Toronto led baseball with 891 runs scored – 127 more runs than the second place Yankees. And the lineup as currently constructed is arguably stronger than before.

Here’s more from north of the border:

AL East Notes: Miller, Papi, Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees

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Andrew Miller’s name has been floated in trade rumors in the early stages of the offseason, and two Major League execs tell Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News that Yankees GM Brian Cashman does indeed seem at least open to the idea of moving him. The Yankees would be comfortable with Dellin Betances serving as their closer, Feinsand writes, but the execs to whom he spoke stressed that Cashman would need to be overwhelmed to deal Miller. Still, Feinsand notes that with the team reluctant to part with any of Luis Severino, Greg Bird or Aaron Judge and a lack of money coming off the books, Miller is one of the team’s most appealing assets that could be used to add talent to the Major League roster. Feinsand writes that the Yankees probably won’t pursue any top-of-the-market free agents this winter and are also unlikely to add any free agents that come tied to draft pick compensation, meaning previous connections to Wei-Yin Chen and Jeff Samardzija may no longer be apt.

A few more notes from the AL East…

  • Starting pitching is the Blue Jays’ top priority even after re-signing Marco Estrada, interim GM Tony LaCava told reporters, including Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith. While LaCava recognized a need for bullpen help, he said the rotation is the primary focus, adding: “We may let the bullpen come to us a little bit.” Nicholson-Smith aptly notes that the relief market typically features many bargains later in the offseason, with names like Ryan Madson, Franklin Morales and Carlos Villanueva all among players who parlayed January minor league deals into strong 2015 seasons. Regarding internal rotation options, LaCava noted that Aaron Sanchez is more likely to transition to a starting role than Roberto Osuna, if the club decides to shift either’s role at all. LaCava explains that Sanchez has more experience starting, whereas health issues have prevented Osuna from going through a full five-month stretch as a starter.
  • Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star relays some quotes from Estrada at the press conference to announce his new contract. Estrada told the Toronto media that his preference was always to come back, and once talks began moving toward a two-year deal following the qualifying offer, he barely considered testing the market at all. Estrada added that the number of key contributors returning to the club in 2016 also made re-upping in Toronto an appealing scenario: “I think even if they left [the roster] alone we’re going to do pretty well this next year. But I’m sure they’re working on stuff.”
  • Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post spoke to former Red Sox scout Dave Jauss (now with the Pirates) about his strong push to convince the Red Sox front office to take a chance on David Ortiz back in 2003. Ortiz had been let go by the Twins, who didn’t want to risk paying him a raise in arbitration after having nearly been contracted by the league. Jauss tells Kilgore that he was aware of all the red flags with Ortiz at the time — problems with left-handed pitching and an inability to stay healthy — but he firmly believed from his time spent managing in the Dominican Republic that Ortiz could flourish in an environment that didn’t force him to be so pull-conscious (i.e. Fenway Park). Kilgore’s piece chronicles Jauss’ workouts for Ortiz in the Dominican Republic while he was a free agent as well as what Jauss saw from Ortiz in winter ball early in his career.
  • In light of the Giants’ recent extension of Brandon Crawford, MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski explores whether or not now is the time for the Orioles to try to secure one of their own homegrown stars: Manny Machado. Crawford inked a six-year extension while he was two years from free agency, but the fact that Machado is still three seasons away and the Orioles have so many other pressing needs this winter mean that an extension isn’t near the top of their priority list at this time, Melewski writes. Melewski’s colleague, Roch Kubatko, tweets that GM Dan Duquette said again today that he is trying to re-sign Chris Davis but can’t handicap the chances of it happening at this time.
  • The Yankees announced their complete coaching staff this week. Mike Harkey will take the bullpen coach job, while Tony Pena will instruct the catchers while also handling first base. Per prior announcements, Alan Cockrell will serve as the hitting coach with Marcus Thames as his assistant.

Marco Estrada Signs Two-Year Deal With Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays have announced the signing of righty Marco Estrada, giving him a $26MM guarantee to return to the Toronto rotation for the next two seasons.

Oct 21, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Marco Estrada (25) waves to the crowd after leaving the game during the eighth inning against the Kansas City Royals in game five of the ALCS at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Last year was unquestionably a career-year for Estrada, who opened things up in the bullpen but quickly established himself as a key cog for the AL East champs. He ended the season with a stellar 3.13 ERA in his 181 frames.

That figure is both surprising and potentially misleading, as Estrada is no longer able to strike out a batter per inning (as he once did) and doesn’t induce many ground balls. Indeed, advanced metrics saw his results as incredibly lucky. An unsustainable .216 batting average on balls in play and career-low 8.7% HR/FB rate surely played a role.

On the other hand, Estrada has traditionally carried extremely low BABIP-against figures (.261 career), and his contact management ability arguably supports it going forward. Hardly a power pitcher, Estrada gets a ton of pop-ups and possesses an outstanding change-up that (one might think) could hold up well with age. And, most importantly, Toronto doesn’t need a repeat of that stellar run prevention to get what it needs out of this contract.

Estrada had been weighing a qualifying offer by the Jays, meaning he had the option of simply taking a $15.8MM salary for a one-year term. That was surely tempting, as Estrada has earned only about $10MM previously in his career. But the 32-year-old also had a chance at securing a multi-year commitment in free agency, which, given his age, may not ever again come around.

In the end, the sides appear to have chosen a mutually agreeable middle ground. Estrada gets multiple years, foregoing a chance at a third guaranteed season but maintaining a strong $13MM AAV. And the Blue Jays, who were in need of multiple starters, will fill one rotation spot with a manageable commitment.

It’s worth bearing in mind, too, that Estrada’s representatives at TWC Sports have had a chance to gauge the 32-year-old’s market all week long. Last year, Michael Cuddyer only turned down his QO when he knew a deal was in hand with the Mets. In this case, Estrada and his agents likely have a good sense of where things stand, though there’s always some uncertainty until a formal agreement is made.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported that the deal was close (via Twitter) and reported its value (Twitter link). ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reported on Twitter that the deal was done, as did Shi Davidi and Mike Wilner of Sportsnet.ca, who confirmed its length and value.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

2015 Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The deadline or players to accept or reject their one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offers was today at 5pm ET. We already know that Colby Rasmus will become the first player to ever accept a qualifying offer, and Marco Estrada reached a two-year deal with the Blue Jays. Brett Anderson also accepted his qualifying offer from the Dodgers.

Here are the updates on the rest of the 20 players that received qualifying offers one week ago today…

  • Ian Desmond will reject the Nationals’ offer, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. He’ll be joined on the open market by Jordan Zimmermann, who did the same, per a tweet from MLB.com’s Bill Ladson.
  • While Brett Anderson will be returning on a one-year deal, Howie Kendrick and Zack Greinke have rejected their qualifying offers from the Dodgers, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links),
  • It’s an obvious one, but Alex Gordon will hit the open market rather than taking a one-year deal from the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Likewise, Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy of the Padres will participate in the open market his fall (per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, on Twitter) and Dexter Fowler has turned down his offer from the Cubs, as Paul Sullivan of 670thescore.com tweets.
  • The Cardinals will stand to pick up draft choices if Jason Heyward and John Lackey sign elsewhere, as they too have rejected the offer, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter).
  • Daniel Murphy and Jeff Samardzija have declined their offers, per reports from Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (via Twitter) and Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com (also via Twitter).
  • Gallardo has declined his QO, Stevenson now tweets.
  • As expected, Hisashi Iwakuma has turned down the qualifying offer issued to him by the Mariners, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.

Earlier Updates

  • Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram hears differently on Gallardo, reporting that he’s still deciding whether or not to accept (links to Twitter). Gallardo’s camp has spoken to multiple other clubs about a deal, but the righty is still mulling a return to his hometown team.
  • Yovani Gallardo will decline the Rangers’ qualifying offer in search of a multi-year contract, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Gallardo never seemed likely to accept the deal, though there may have been a bit of temptation given the fact that Gallardo is a Fort Worth native. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that he spoke to Gallardo’s agent, Bobby Witt, and was told that he’s yet to officially inform the Rangers one way or the other (Twitter link).

Those who are unfamiliar with the process can refer to MLBTR’s explanation of the qualifying offer system for full details.

Blue Jays, Marco Estrada Discussing Multi-Year Deal

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The Blue Jays and right-hander Marco Estrada are discussing a multi-year deal in advance of Friday’s deadline for Estrada to accept or decline Toronto’s one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Estrada is a client of TWC Sports.

“We’d love to have him back,” interim GM Tony LaCava told Rosenthal, without mentioning any sort of specifics regarding Estrada’s situation. “He was a big part of our success this year.”

Estrada, 32, has an interesting decision on his hands, having earned “only” about $10MM in his big league career. The qualifying offer would net him more money than he’s made as a professional to this point over just a one-year term, but it also comes without the security and stability that would come from knowing where he’ll be pitching for the next two to three seasons. Additionally, as a player whose track record is solid but doesn’t line up with his 2015 results, he’s a player that could cause teams to be skeptical about forfeiting a draft pick in order to sign. A multi-year deal would be a compromise that affords Estrada some security and gives Toronto some much-needed pitching depth, as I speculated at the time that Estrada received the QO (and discussed a week prior on the MLBTR Podcast with Jeff Todd).

For the Blue Jays, the notion of keeping Estrada around on a multi-year deal at a lower annual rate than the qualifying offer’s total undoubtedly has appeal. Estrada posted an excellent 3.13 ERA in 181 innings in 2015 and enjoyed a strong postseason run as well. The Blue Jays are currently set to lose Estrada, David Price and Mark Buehrle from their rotation and also traded away Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd, thinning out internal replacement options. The club will still have blossoming ace Marcus Stroman, veteran innings-eater R.A. Dickey and the inconsistent Drew Hutchison as rotation options next season, to say nothing of 2015 bullpen pieces Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna, both of whom were starters before converting to relief out of necessity this past season.

Nevertheless, the Jays lack a significant amount of rotation depth, and Estrada would give them some stability in their starting staff. The question for Toronto is how to appropriately value Estrada’s 2015 results. While the bottom-line numbers were impressive, Estrada’s strikeout and walk rates trended in the wrong direction for the fourth consecutive season, and a good deal of his run prevention stemmed from an outlier .216 batting average on balls in play. Estrada has long maintained a BABIP lower than the league average, but his BABIP should still be expected to regress to some extent in future seasons, and it’s unknown whether he can maintain 2015’s career-low homer-to-flyball ratio. If those traits prove to be somewhat sustainable, however, the Blue Jays could find themselves with a tremendous asset on their hands, as Estrada was easily the club’s most consistent performer after joining the rotation in early May.

AL East Notes: Orioles, Rays, Red Sox, Greinke

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The Orioles are generally patient in the free agent market under GM Dan Duquette, writes Rich Dubroff of CSN Baltimore. Duquette’s biggest free agent signings came late in the 2013-2014 offseason when he inked Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez. Given that 20 players were extended qualifying offers, Baltimore could once again wait to see if any players fall through the cracks. In my opinion, there are some risks with this strategy. While buying low close to the season has its advantages, it can leave a player under-prepared. Additionally, several clubs appear well positioned to play the waiting game. Duquette could find an unusual amount of competition if he waits to do his shopping until late-January.

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • Former Orioles Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, and Matt Wieters may take a patient approach to finding a new contract, writes Dubroff. All three Scott Boras clients received a qualifying offer. In the case of Davis, the Orioles would like to re-sign him and plan to make a competitive offer. However, Dubroff wonders how long Baltimore will allow Davis to shop for offers before they move onto alternatives. Meanwhile, the market for Wieters may not be particularly robust with the White Sox, Astros, and Dodgers as possible fits. Reliever Darren O’Day was not given a qualifying offer, and he could be in line for a four-year contract.
  • The Rays made an early splash on the trade market, and they’re obviously not done, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The club has narrowed its focus for the offseason but remains open to discussing any player. Topkin notes that free agent activity will wait until later in the offseason “when their currency of playing time can be worth more than money to players still on the market.” Trade talks figure to revolve around first baseman James Loney. He’s owed $8MM next season. Corner infield prospect Richie Shaffer appears ready for a high profile role if Loney is dealt elsewhere.
  • The Red Sox currently have the 12th pick in the 2016 amateur draft, and it may influence some of their free agent decisions, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Under the qualifying offer system, the earliest pick ever surrendered to sign a free agent is the 13th (Padres, James Shields). The club would probably be willing to cough up a pick for a top free agent like Zack Greinke, Davis, or Jordan Zimmermann. However, pitchers like Chen, Marco Estrada, and others might not offer enough upside to forego the early pick. Per President Dave Dombrowski, “I think it’s a case-by-case basis and you analyze that based upon the player you have a chance to sign.“
  • As a means of retaining their first pick, the Red Sox may attempt to trade for starting pitching, writes Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com. Trade candidates are harder to predict because it’s unclear which players are really on the table. McAdam believes that A’s starter Sonny Gray, Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco, and San Diego’s Tyson Ross are logical targets. The club could also chase a top reliever like Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman.
  • Greinke may not be a fit in Boston, opines Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. Greinke actually hit similarly to Pablo Sandoval on a rate basis and reportedly enjoys batting regularly. There’s also the matter of home division. The NL West includes some of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. As such, the Dodgers and Giants are a good fit. Pitchers in the AL East have to survive Fenway and three homer-happy venues in Toronto, New York, and Baltimore. That could hold back the Red Sox in negotiations for other top pitchers like David Price too. Gammons does see a possible trade match with the White Sox for ace Chris Sale. Blake Swihart could potentially serve as a centerpiece.

Players To Receive Qualifying Offers

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The deadline for players to extend qualifying offers to their free agents is 5pm ET today. The value of this year’s qualifying offer — which is equated by taking the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players — is $15.8MM. Teams can extend the QO to free agents who spent the entire year with that club (i.e. were not midseason signings/trade acquisitions), giving the player one week to accept or decline the deal. Should the player accept — and to this point, no one has ever accepted a QO — he is immediately under contract for the following season at that $15.8MM salary and cannot be traded without his consent until the following June. If a player rejects and signs with a new club, his former team is awarded a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round the following year. Any team that signs a player that has rejected a QO must forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The top 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected under the collective bargaining agreement.) Those wishing to drill down deeper into the specifics of the qualifying offer can check out MLBTR’s full explanation of the qualifying offer system.

The previous one-year record for number of player to receive a QO is 13, but with a deep crop of free-agent talent this offseason, a new record will absolutely be set. I see as many as 22 realistic QO candidates in this year’s free agent class, though some of those are admittedly borderline calls whose teams may decide not to make the risk. To this point, the Royals have already made the obvious decision to extend a QO to Alex Gordon (as they announced yesterday). That was the lone formal announcement prior to Friday.

All that said, here’s the list of formal qualifying offers to be extended (we’ll update accordingly throughout the day)…

  • The Orioles announced that they’ve issued qualifying offers to first baseman Chris Davis, lefty Wei-Yin Chen, and catcher Matt Wieters. Though reports at times questioned whether Baltimore would extend the $15.8MM offer to Wieters, it always seemed a near-lock that that the team would do so (with expectations that he’ll reject it and look for multiple years in free agency).
  • The White Sox have officially announced their qualifying offer to Jeff Samardzija, which was essentially a foregone conclusion. It’s been known that Samardzija will receive a qualifying offer and widely reported that he will reject said offer for quite some time.

Earlier Updates

  • Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners), Dexter Fowler (Cubs) and Daniel Murphy (Mets) will all receive qualifying offers, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Each of the moves was widely expected, although Heyman also hears that the Padres have made up their mind and will make a qualifying offer to Ian Kennedy. That situation was a bit more up in the air, though Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune said two nights ago that it was a “likely” outcome, and we at MLBTR have voiced the belief that the Padres should and would make the QO on multiple occasions.
  • The Blue Jays have now announced that Marco Estrada will receive a qualifying offer on the strength of his impressive 2015 regular season and playoff performance. (A full breakdown of Estrada’s qualifying offer can be read here.)
  • The Cardinals announced that they have extended the qualifying offer to both Jason Heyward and John Lackey. Each decision was widely anticipated, as they 26-year-old Heyward is poised to cash in on an enormous contract due to his youth, defensive prowess and solid contributions at the plate and on the bases. Lackey recently turned 37, but he’s completely rejuvenated his career over the past three seasons and is well-positioned to land a sizable multi-year deal this winter even with draft pick compensation attached to his name
  • As noted above, the Royals announced their qualifying offer to Alex Gordon on Thursday afternoon.

Blue Jays Make Qualifying Offer To Marco Estrada

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The Blue Jays will make the one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to right-hander Marco Estrada, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (via Twitter). Estrada, like all other free agents to receive the QO, will have one week to accept or decline the offer. Should he reject the offer, any club would have to forfeit its top unprotected draft pick to sign him as a free agent. Additionally, the Blue Jays would net a compensatory pick at the end of the first round in next year’s draft.

A qualifying offer for Estrada wasn’t even a consideration heading into the season, especially considering the fact that the 32-year-old opened the year in the bullpen. However, Estrada joined the Toronto rotation in early May and proceeded to deliver the best performance of his career, logging a 3.13 ERA in 180 innings and continuing with an outstanding postseason that saw him surrender just five runs with an 11-to-1 K/BB ratio in 19 1/3 innings.

Estrada will now be faced with an interesting decision. He’s banked a relatively modest $10MM in his career, so the qualifying offer alone could pay him one-and-a-half times his career earnings in just one season. However, Estrada has also never been on a multi-year deal and enjoyed the security that such a pact would afford him, and it’s likely that he’d have received significant multi-year interest without the QO.

The draft pick forfeiture will add to what was already an air of uncertainty surrounding Estrada. Prior to the 2015 season, he’d enjoyed a few quality seasons, but his strikeout and walk rates had trended in the wrong direction — and they did again in 2015 — as he bounced back and forth between the Milwaukee bullpen and rotation. Estrada unquestionably benefited from a minuscule .218 BABIP this season, but it’s also not fair to assume that mark will regress toward the league-average of about .300. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher, Estrada naturally has a lower BABIP (fly-balls are easier to convert into outs but also beget more home runs) and has maintained a .261 career mark in that regard.

A team that believes it can find a way to restore Estrada’s strikeouts while also maintaining a bit of the improved home-run prevention he displayed in 2015 may well think he’s worth the forfeiture of a draft pick — especially if the team has a protected (or late) first-round pick and/or plays in a spacious ball park. Ultimately, the bet here is that he turns the offer down in search of a long-term pact. It’s also possible that Estrada and the Blue Jays compromise and work out a long-term pact in the coming week as he weighs the decision.

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