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Marcell Ozuna

Reds To Give Consideration To Qualifying Offer Recipients

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Following a 2018-2019 offseason that saw the club focus primarily on pitching additions, offensive improvement is expected to be a chief initiative for the Reds this winter. With that goal in mind, the club will not rule out signing free agents attached to a qualifying offer this offseason, as team president of baseball operations Dick Williams indicated at this week’s GM Meetings (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

Although signing a QO-laden free agent would require the Reds to forfeit their third-highest pick in the 2020 First-Year Player Draft, the club does not apparently view that cost as strictly prohibitive:

“We’re very aware of the guys who will have rejected qualifying offers and what that means for the economics of what we’re willing to pay,” Williams said. “I think that’s how the system is set up. That is something we’ll definitely factor in. It doesn’t prevent us from talking to any player. We don’t look at it that way.”

This public stance is especially pertinent considering today marks the deadline for qualifying offer recipients to accept or decline their QO. Four of the ten players who received offers are position players, including first baseman Jose Abreu, third baseman Josh Donaldson, outfielder Marcell Ozuna, and third baseman Anthony Rendon. Given that Cincinnatti’s needs at first and third are likely to be handled by Eugenio Suarez and Joey Votto for the next several years, Ozuna may be left as the presumptive reference point to Williams’ comments.

The early market for Ozuna, in particular, has been said to potentially feature as many as a quarter of MLB teams, perhaps revealing that, like the Reds, clubs are feeling slightly less gunshy about this year’s crop of QO-attached free agents overall. Cincinnati has a wide array of potential avenues to explore in improving their cast of position players, with the outfield, catcher, and second base spots all likely to receive some level of attention this winter.

Latest On Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna

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There is little doubt that Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna have the most earning power among free-agent outfielders. In MLBTR’s estimation, they’re the only outfielders who look like strong bets to even land $20MM guarantees this winter. We have Castellanos signing for $58MM over four years and Ozuna receiving a three-year, $45MM contract.

Compared to Ozuna, Castellanos has two obvious factors working in his favor: He’s younger (Castellanos will turn 28 in March, while Ozuna’s 29th birthday was on Tuesday) and there’s no qualifying offer weighing him down. The Cardinals, Ozuna’s most recent team, hit him with a $17.8MM QO aftter the season. Assuming he rejects it by Thursday’s deadline, which looks likely, Ozuna’s next club would have to surrender draft compensation to sign him. As for Castellanos, he was part of a trade during the 2019 campaign, going from the Tigers to the Cubs, so he was ineligible to receive a QO this offseason.

Regardless of whom you prefer, both Castellanos and Ozuna figure to draw plenty of interest now that the offseason is underway. The Reds are one team that seems to like both: Already known to have Ozuna on their radar, they’re also eyeing Castellanos, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Either would give the playoff-desperate Reds a much-needed established option in the corner outfield, where the talented but largely unproven Jesse Winker and Aristides Aquino look like their best choices at the moment.

The Reds and Cardinals are two of at least a half-dozen teams open to a deal with Ozuna, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold, who also names the White Sox and Rangers among the intrigued clubs. The White Sox’s interest isn’t remotely surprising. After all, they’re trying to transition from rebuilding to contending, but doing so will be difficult without significantly improving an outfield that finished dead last in the majors in fWAR (0.9) in 2019, when rookie Eloy Jimenez was their lone bright spot in the grass.

Likewise, the Rangers have one immensely valuable outfield building block (Joey Gallo), but it’s otherwise up in the air who will comprise the unit with him in 2020. Hunter Pence is a free agent (and more of.a designated hitter nowadays); Shin-Soo Choo’s more cut out for a DH role; Nomar Mazara has disappointed and may not even be a Ranger in 2020; Willie Calhoun and Danny Santana don’t have set positions; and Delino DeShields is coming off yet another rough offensive season. All that said, there’s room for Texas to make at least one notable addition in the outfield, and with the team set to christen a new stadium in 2020, perhaps Ozuna will end up as one of its buzzworthy pickups.

Reds Interested In Marcell Ozuna

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It’s been six years since the Reds have made the playoffs or even finished .500 in a season. President Dick Williams has made it no secret the team’s aiming to turn it around ASAP, though, which could set up for an active Reds winter. Improving a weak offense figures to be Cincinnati’s main focus over the coming months. The Reds’ outfield is one of multiple areas of concern, so it’s no surprise they seem to be looking to bolster that area of their roster. They’re among the teams interested in free agent Marcell Ozuna – arguably the top outfielder available – Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.

For Ozuna to actually reach free agency, he’ll first have to reject the Cardinals’ $17.8MM qualifying offer by Thursday. That looks like a near certainty, however, and if it does happen and the Reds do sign Ozuna, they’d have to surrender their third-highest draft pick along with however much it could cost to win the bidding for him. MLBTR forecasts a three-year, $45MM contract for Ozuna, who has an extensive track record of quality production and, along with Nicholas Castellanos, looks like the best free-agent outfielder in this winter’s class. The 29-year-old Ozuna slashed .243/.330/.474 with 29 home runs, 12 steals and 2.6 fWAR across 549 plate appearances in 2019, during which he graded as a Statcast darling.

Whether the Reds get Ozuna or someone else, it’ll be an eye-opener if they don’t land at least one somewhat prominent outfielder this offseason. They’re stuck with a largely unproven group at the moment, as no one from the Nick Senzel–Aristides Aquino–Jesse Winker trio has established himself as a truly capable big league starter yet. Speculatively, if the Reds were to sign Ozuna, he could take over left field, leaving RF to a platoon consisting of the lefty-swinging Winker and the righty-hitting Aquino.

Marcell Ozuna Expected To Decline Qualifying Offer

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Outfielder Marcell Ozuna intends to decline the $17.8MM qualifying offer and test the open market, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’s said to have received sufficient interest to believe he’ll top the QO in free agency, even with the drag of draft compensation.

Ozuna’s suitors will need to factor in some lost draft assets if they sign him; the precise hit depends upon the team. But with nearly a quarter of the MLB outfits showing some level of interest, per Heyman, it seems the circumstances will create enough bidding to get Ozuna a lengthier contract.

It’s still hard to tell just how things will shake out for a player who has some very strong attributes but also some clear demerits. And it doesn’t help that he’s entering a market filled almost to a bizarre level with roughly similar players. Fellow youthful corner outfielders Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, and Yasiel Puig are also looking for new homes. None will be saddled with draft compensation.

While Ozuna has stung the ball repetitively in recent years, he has produced at merely above-average levels. It doesn’t take much to imagine Ozuna slugging again like he did in 2017; after all, he only just reached his 29th birthday today. But it’s also easy to view that standout campaign as a clear outlier, since he hasn’t otherwise produced consistently at anything close to a 143 wRC+ level. Plus, Ozuna’s once-strong defensive chops have taken a hit as he has lost speed and dealt with shoulder problems, though there’s still reason to hope he’ll be a capable defender for a few more years.

Here at MLBTR, we expect the market to treat Ozuna well — just perhaps not quite as well as once seemed possible. We guessed he’d take down a three-year, $45MM pact even after accounting for the draft hit, with teams such as the Giants, Marlins, Reds, Padres, Indians, Tigers, and Royals positioned as plausible contenders for his services.

Which Pick(s) Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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We looked already at the possible draft compensation that teams might recoup from losing players who decline qualifying offers. Now, we’ll take a glance at the topic from the other side of the coin: what it’ll cost other teams to sign such players.

Last week, 10 players received qualifying offers. Teams interested in signing Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Will Smith will therefore be required to forfeit draft and perhaps international bonus considerations in order to sign anyone from that bunch — assuming each of the 10 rejects that one-year, $17.8MM sum. Here’s a breakdown of the specific penalties that all 30 teams would face in signing a “qualified” free agent:

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs

If any of these three teams signs a qualified free agent, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft. They’d all also see $1MM docked from their 2020-21 international bonus pools. The Red Sox, in particular, seem more intent on shedding payroll and lowering their luxury hit than on adding a high-end free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would mean then surrendering their third- and sixth-highest selections as well as an additional $1MM in international funds.

Revenue Sharing Recipients:  Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax during the 2019 season. As such, they’d forfeit “only” their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft by signing a qualified free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would require forfeiting their fourth-highest pick. A third would mean their fifth-highest pick (and so on). Revenue-sharing recipients who do not cross the luxury threshold face the smallest penalty in signing a qualified free agent.

All Other Clubs: Nationals, White Sox, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays

These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K upon signing a qualified free agent. At 67-95, the Blue Jays had the worst record among this group, meaning it’d be most costly (in terms of amateur talent acquisition capital) for them to sign a qualified free agent. However, GM Ross Atkins has said since the season ended that such concerns won’t deter the Jays from pursuing qualified free agents.

For teams in this group, signing a second qualified free agent would mean punting next year’s third-highest selection and an additional $500K. A third would mean parting with the fourth-highest pick and another $500K (and so on).

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While those penalties surely count for something, it’s worth reminding that they’re also not as steep as some clubs like to portray. Each team’s top overall selection is protected, and the highest draft choice that’d theoretically be forfeited would be the Cardinals’ Competitive Balance (Round A) selection, which would come in after the first round and after all of the compensatory picks for these free-agent losses. Competitive Balance Round A in 2019 spanned pick Nos. 35-41, and the slot value of those selections ranged from $2.1MM (No. 35) to $1.81MM (No. 41).

With 10 QOs this year, that compensatory round will be longer. Most teams with a Competitive Balance draft pick next season (barring trades of those picks, which are the only draft choices eligible to be traded) will fall into the “revenue sharing recipient” bucket, meaning their Round A picks would be protected. If the Cardinals pass on a qualified free agent, then the Jays and their second-round pick (likely in the mid-40s) would face the largest potential penalty.

Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.

As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.

In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.

The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.

Marcell Ozuna “Very Unlikely” To Accept Qualifying Offer

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Free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna is “very unlikely” to accept the $17.8MM qualifying offer made to him by the Cardinals, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Ozuna was seen as one of the few recipients who could consider accepting the one-year deal, but Heyman suggests that there is a robust market for Ozuna’s services.

While it was perhaps never likely that Ozuna would take the qualifying offer to stick around in St. Louis for another year, he stood out as one of the ten QO recipients who could be a candidate to accept in lieu of entering the open market. Ozuna’s retractors might pin the outfielder as one of the hitters who could suffer most in baseball’s notoriously stingy free agency; as a solid but unspectacular hitter who won’t carry a lineup and who doesn’t stand out on defense, critics might put him in Mike Moustakas territory.

That’s not to say he doesn’t offer any value. Ozuna is just two years removed from a breakout season in Miami’s pitcher-friendly ballpark. While he’s no longer the Gold Glover he was in 2017, Ozuna still grades out solidly as a defensive outfielder. By free agent standards, he’s on the younger side, and there’s reason to believe that he’s capable of more than the .241/.328/.472 line he posted in his second year in St. Louis; his .382 expected wOBA far outclassed his actual .336 mark, suggesting that Ozuna’s true talent level is a notch above his Cardinals output.

Assuming that Ozuna indeed elects to hit free agency, it’s not a foregone conclusions that the 28-year-old will play in a new uniform next year. Ozuna has expressed his desire to remain with the Cardinals, and while the organization has been less steadfast in their interest, it has been recently reported that the two sides are prepared to discuss a multiyear contract. By virtue of extending the QO, the club has demonstrated a willingness to keep Ozuna at a considerable cost, but only for one year—we’ll see how far they’re willing to go on a multiyear commitment.

Otherwise, Ozuna will reach free agency for the first time with a compensatory draft pick attached to him. We’ve seen in recent years that this additional price has been a deterrent for mid-range free agents, and Ozuna’s market will no doubt take a hit as a result, though to what extent it’s not clear. Regardless of the draft pick, Ozuna has plenty of desirable qualities that should make him an attractive target to a flurry of clubs, like Heyman notes; MLBTR projects Ozuna to receive a three year, $45MM contract—while that’s a lower projection that other outlets, such a deal would still give Ozuna the second-highest payday among free agent corner outfielders (behind only Nick Castellanos).

Cardinals, Marcell Ozuna To Discuss Multiyear Deal

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Cardinals left fielder Marcell Ozuna was one of 10 players to receive a qualifying offer before the deadline Monday. Should he turn it down, Ozuna will reach free agency with draft-pick compensation hanging over his head. But if Ozuna accepts, he’d return to the Cardinals in 2020 on a $17.8MM price tag. As of now, though, there’s at least some chance of a multiyear contract between the Cardinals and Ozuna that would negate the qualifying offer. The club has recently talked with Ozuna’s agent, Melvin Roman of MDR Sports Management, and will meet again with him in the next 10 days to explore a new contract, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Ozuna has until Nov. 14 to take or reject the QO.

This is the first reported instance of the Cardinals showing serious interest in re-signing Ozuna, undoubtedly one of the premier unsigned position players in baseball. The soon-to-be 29-year-old Ozuna has made it known on multiple occasions he’d like to stay in St. Louis, where he has played since the Cardinals acquired him from the Marlins entering the 2018 campaign.

Ozuna was coming off a tremendous season when the Cardinals traded for him, though he has been more good than exemplary since then. He’s now on the heels of a 2.8-fWAR campaign in which he hit .243/.330/.474 with 29 home runs and a personal-best 12 stolen bases in 549 plate appearances. Ozuna’s production led to a 110 wRC+, meaning he was 10 percent better than the league-average offensive player. That’s obviously closer to solid than stellar, but the longtime Statcast darling did continue to thrive in that regard this season. Ozuna’s expected weighted on-base average (.382) blew past his real wOBA (.336) and ranked in the top 8 percent of baseball. His hard-hit rate (49.2 percent) was even better, defeating all but 4 percent of hitters.

Ozuna’s reps are likely to push his Statcast excellence when trying to secure a new deal for their client. And MLBTR expects Ozuna to do fairly well on the market despite a QO, as his projection (three years, $45MM) ranks as our 11th-highest guarantee among free agents and falls behind just one other corner outfielder (Nicholas Castellanos) in a market rife with flawed options. Whether the Cardinals would dole out that type of money over a multiyear period is up in the air, but by extending a QO, they’ve already shown a willingness to keep Ozuna around at a pricey figure for at least another season. For now, with Ozuna’s status in limbo, the reigning National League Central champions count Dexter Fowler, Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Tommy Edman, Jose Martinez, Lane Thomas, Yairo Munoz, Randy Arozarena and coveted prospect Dylan Carlson among their outfield options who remain under control.

10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.

This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.

This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).

Here are the ten players:

There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.

Latest On Marcell Ozuna, Cardinals

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Pending free-agent left fielder Marcell Ozuna has made it known he’d prefer to re-sign with the Cardinals, but it doesn’t look likely with free agency approaching. The Cardinals won’t be making an effort to re-up Ozuna to a long-term contract before the market opens in a couple weeks, Mark Saxon of The Athletic writes (subscription link). They are, however, likely to issue Ozuna a $17.8MM qualifying offer, according to Saxon.

[RELATED – FA Outlook: Marcell Ozuna]

If the Cardinals do hit Ozuna with a QO and he accepts, they’ll keep him for 2020. Otherwise, rejecting would enable Ozuna to head to free agency as arguably the most appealing corner outfielder available in a class that will also include Nicholas Castellanos and Yasiel Puig, among others. In a best-case scenario for Ozuna, St. Louis will pass on doling out the QO, as saddling him with one would force another team to give up draft-pick compensation in signing him. As we’ve seen in recent offseasons, clubs generally aren’t enthusiastic about losing draft capital while simultaneously having to fork over a sizable contract.

In the event Ozuna does get to free agency with a QO attached, he’ll still have a case for one of the offseason’s top paydays. Set to turn 29 next month, Ozuna’s coming off his fifth season with at least 2.6 fWAR since he debuted with the Marlins in 2013. Ozuna continued a trend of above-average (but not spectacular) offensive production in 2019, as he slashed .243/.330/.474 with 29 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 549 plate appearances. If we’re to believe Statcast, there may be more in the tank – Ozuna’s expected weighted on-base average (.379) far outpaced his real wOBA (.340) and ranked in the majors’ 91st percentile. He was also near the apex of the league in average exit velocity (91.8 mph; 93rd percentile) and hard-hit percentage (49.2; 96th percentile), among other Statcast metrics.

While Ozuna hasn’t been able to replicate the star-caliber 2017 he enjoyed with the Marlins during his two years as a Cardinal, his output would still be a challenge for the Redbirds to replace. St. Louis does have several other outfielders in the mix, though, and it’s not a guarantee the club will aggressively pursue outside help in the wake of an Ozuna exit. With Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, Tommy Edman, Jose Martinez, Lane Thomas, Yairo Munoz, Randy Arozarena and high-end prospect Dylan Carlson among options under control for next season, the Cardinals “have no intention of adding to the outfield glut” this winter, Saxon writes.

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