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Manuel Margot

Rays Select Sean Gilmartin

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The Rays announced Friday that they’ve placed lefty Jose Alvarado on the paternity list and selected the contract of fellow left-hander Sean Gilmartin from their alternate training site. A 40-man roster spot was opened by reinstating outfielder Manuel Margot from the bereavement list and placing him on the Covid-19-related injured list so that he can undergo mandatory intake testing. It should be noted that there’s no indication of a positive test or any symptoms for Margot; this is merely standard protocol after Margot left the team earlier this week following the death of his father.

Gilmartin, 30, has pitched in the big leagues in each of the past five seasons — albeit just 2 1/3 frames with the Orioles in 2019. The Braves selected him with the No. 28 pick back in 2011, and he’s since bounced around the league in a series of trades, a Rule 5 pick and waiver claims.

Back in 2015, the Mets looked wise to have plucked Gilmartin out of the Twins organization in the 2014 Rule 5 Draft. He stuck with the club all season and gave the Mets 57 2/3 innings of 2.67 ERA ball with a strong 54-to-18 K/BB ratio and just two home runs allowed. Outside of that rookie season, however, success in the Majors has been hard to come by.

In the four years since that time, Gilmartin has pitched to a combined 5.90 ERA and 6.46 FIP, averaging just 5.5 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings pitched. Gilmartin’s home-run and walk rates have ballooned as his strikeout rate has dipped. He’ll hope to reverse those trends with the Rays, but it’s also possible that his stay with the club will be rather abbreviated, as Alvarado should return to the Rays in just a few days.

Rays’ Centerfield Situation

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Kevin Kiermaier and Manuel Margot are hard-coded atop the centerfield depth chart for the Tampa Bay Rays, but both players come with question marks.

Despite Kiermaier’s statesman status as the longest-tenured Ray, the club has taken an aggressive approach to finding players capable of roaming the grass in center. He remains a defensive stud, but his health is perpetually in question and his offense has slipped over the past two seasons. His two-year slash line checks in at just .223/.280/.386 across 847 plate appearances. Despite roughly 21% less offensive production than average (79 wRC+),  Kiermaier’s A-1 defensive abilities and plus baserunning skills maintain his viability as a starter. Margot fits the same profile, but five years younger and he bats from the right side.

The Rays know what they like, apparently, because they are continuing to experiment with  power-shy Lucius Fox in centerfield, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Fox has been an infielder for most of his career, primarily at shortstop, though he’s gotten looks at second and third as well. Fox is a tremendous speedster, making him a fit for center from a raw tools standpoint, but he has yet to log any professional time in the outfield. It hasn’t clicked yet for Fox offensively with a .244/.337/.325 line across four seasons in the minor leagues.

Before acquiring Margot, the Rays also picked up Randy Arozarena in the Matthew Liberatore trade. Arozarena now seems likely to start the year in Triple-A, but he’s another option for center. He also happens to be coming off a monster year in Triple-A, where he hit .358/.435/.593 in 64 games after earning a promotion from Double-A. He excelled in a small-sample 19 games with the Cardinals at the end of the year, making their playoff roster as a speed option off the bench. Purely from a numbers standpoint, Arozarena could have the highest-ceiling of all their current options.

The Rays clearly prefer a gold glove roving-type in centerfield, but Austin Meadows could also fill in there in a pinch. It is telling, however, that he has only logged 13 innings in center since being acquired from the Pirates.

AL East Notes: Morton, Betts, Margot, Blue Jays, Wood, Sanchez

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Former Astros righty Charlie Morton became the latest player to address Houston’s electronic sign-stealing scandal, telling MLB.com’s Juan Toribio and other reporters that “personally, I regret not doing more to stop it” during his time with the club in 2017, while also admitting that he wasn’t certain what steps he could have taken to directly halt the sign-stealing system.  Morton has already spoken to some Rays teammates about the situation, and added that he didn’t believe the Astros were still doing anything illicit last October, when Houston defeated Tampa Bay in the ALDS.

2017 was a particularly unique year for Morton, as he wasn’t just a big part of a World Series-winning team, but his entire career was revived while pitching for the Astros, turning him from a borderline journeyman to his current top-of-the-rotation status in Tampa.  Despite his own fond memories, however, Morton knows and accepts that the Astros’ achievements have been overshadowed by the scandal.  “Certainly the public perception of that win has changed, and my peers, too….There are moments during the World Series that will always be special to me, that won’t be ’tainted.’  But certainly that’s justified, that’s a justified perception to have, and what people have expressed,” Morton said.

More from around the AL East…

  • Between all of the uncertainty surrounding the Mookie Betts trade and yesterday’s Padres/Rays trade that sent Manuel Margot to Tampa Bay, there has been some speculation that the Padres could be clearing center field for a late strike at acquiring Betts.  However, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link) suggests the opposite, noting that since Margot was reportedly part of the Betts negotiations between the Red Sox and Padres, sending Margot to the Rays indicates that San Diego decided to go in another direction.
  • The Blue Jays went into the offseason prepared to aggressively search for pitching, only to have to ramp up their approach when the free agent market moved much quicker than anticipated, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes in a wide-ranging overview of Toronto’s winter moves.  Davidi’s piece provides a breakdown of how the Jays pursued their targets, ranging from big names (i.e. Gerrit Cole, Yasmani Grandal) on both the rotation and position player fronts, as well as looking for value by checking in with seemingly just about every pitcher available.  The Winter Meetings seemed to be a key pivot point, as one player agent told Davidi that the Jays began to take a “totally different” approach in negotiations: “It’s like they realized what they’d been doing wasn’t working and decided to change things up.”  In essence, the Toronto front office reversed its strategy, abandoning the plan of acquiring an ace-level arm first and then adding more pitchers to a new tactic of signing mid-rotation hurlers (i.e. Tanner Roark, Shun Yamaguchi) before finally landing a big fish in Hyun-Jin Ryu.
  • Adding to the long list of pitchers known to have garnered interest from the Blue Jays, Davidi reports that Toronto was also “in the mix for” both Alex Wood and Angel Sanchez.  Wood ended up signing with the Dodgers, one of his former teams, in mid-January on a one-year contract worth $4MM in guaranteed money (and another $6MM in incentives).  Sanchez bounced around multiple farm systems from 2011-17 with a Major League resume that included only 12 1/3 innings for the 2017 Pirates before finding success pitching in Korea over the last two seasons.  While Sanchez received some looks from the Jays and other MLB teams, he ended up heading from South Korea to Japan, signing a multi-year deal with the NPB’s Yomiuri Giants.

Padres Acquire Emilio Pagan From Rays For Manuel Margot And Prospect Logan Driscoll

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The San Diego Padres have acquired reliever Emilio Pagan from the Tampa Bay Rays. In exchange, they’re sending centerfielder Manuel Margot and prospect Logan Driscoll to Tampa Bay, per The Athletic’s Josh Tolentino (via Twitter). The deal is official, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio.

Both teams add strength to strength here. The Rays get an elite defensive centerfielder to back up one one of the league’s best in that department, while the Padres give their already-strong bullpen another weapon to lock down the ends of ballgames. Both teams, interestingly, are addressing an area with this trade to which they’ve already devoted resources this winter.

Turning to the players, Pagan departs one strong bullpen to join another in San Diego, where he’ll team up with incumbent closer Kirby Yates and 21-year-old flamethrower Andres Munoz. The Padres will be his fourth team in as many seasons after year-long stints with the Mariners, A’s, and Rays. Last season was his most successful to date, however, as he notched a 12.3 K/9 versus 1.7 BB/9 in his 70 innings as a Ray. San Diego seems to value his ability to retire both right and left-handed hitters, citing Pagan’s matching  .179 BAA in their press release.

The Friars have dedicated quite a bit of resources to a bullpen that now looks like a genuine asset. They earlier re-signed Craig Stammen to a two-year, $9MM deal and convinced Drew Pomeranz to give San Diego a second go-round with a surprising four-year, $34MM commitment. The Padres also brought in former San Francisco Giant Pierce Johnson after a successful stint overseas.

Pagan’s one season in Tampa Bay came after being acquired from Oakland in the three-way deal that landed Jurickson Profar in Oakland and sent Brock Burke, Yoel Espinal, Kyle Bird, Eli White, and international draft pool money to the Rangers. The Rays also received a draft pick in that deal. Pagan served as the Rays de facto closer last season, notching 20 saves in 66 games with a 2.31 ERA/3.30 FIP.

For their part, Tampa adds an elite defensive centerfielder in Margot who may yet have another offensive gear in him as he nears his age-25 season. Margot hit an underwhelming .234/.304/.387 last year, in line with his career mark of .248/.301/.394 – but by just about any measure, Margot ranks among the game’s very best at traversing the centerfield grass. Last season, he scored 6 DRS, 5.8 UZR, and 11 Outs Above Average. Margot provides the Rays with defensive certainty up the middle should Kevin Kiermaier again struggle to stay healthy.

The Rays have made of a winter of adding outfielders by way of relatively surprising multi-player deals. Margot joins Hunter Renfroe as San Diego expats now based in Tampa. The Rays also dealt top pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore to St. Louis for Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena, who now figures to start the year in Triple-A. Austin Meadows, of course, remains on hand as an everyday player in the outfield.

For the Rays in particular, the move represents another somewhat disorienting instance of doubling down on a particular area. Their earlier trade for Martinez, who figures to spend much of his time at designated hitter, came shortly after the signing of Yoshi Tsutsugo, another prospective candidate to spend time at designated hitter.

Here again, the addition of Margot could be seen as an over-saturation of Tampa’s centerfield pool, where they’ve already added Arozarena. The Rays have reportedly been after Margot for some time, however, and though Kiermaier remains the unequivocal starter in center, they view Margot as an “impact defender,” per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

Driscoll was the 73rd overall pick of the Padres in the 2019 draft. His ability to play both catcher and outfield certainly marks him as a prospect of some intrigue. In 39 games at Low-A in 2019, Driscoll hit .268/.340/.458.

Mookie Betts Trade Talks Could Be Nearing Resolution

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The Mookie Betts saga hasn’t yet reached a resolution. That could change shortly. The Red Sox may make a decision on Betts “within the next few days,” reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Boston has continued to discuss “multiple” trade scenarios with both the Dodgers and Padres. Those talks have now reached “a relatively advanced stage,” Speier reports. Earlier this week, Speier categorized the Betts sweepstakes as “a two-team race” between Los Angeles and San Diego. There’s no indication anyone beyond the two NL West rivals is still involved.

That’s not to say a Betts trade imminently coming to fruition is a guarantee. The Red Sox haven’t asked either L.A. or San Diego for “a last and best offer,” a source from one of the rival clubs told Speier. That suggests there remains some possibility of talks fizzling out or going in an unexpected direction; at the very least, it doesn’t seem Boston plans to set a firm deadline on a Betts trade, at least not immediately.

Reading between the lines, though, it feels like a Betts trade is now more likely than ever. Speier reported earlier in the week it was “likelier than not” the superstar would wind up on the move, and today’s news only strengthens that notion. If a deal does get across the finish line, what could the Red Sox expect in return for the former AL MVP?

Any deal with the Padres would need to include Wil Myers to help offset payroll, Speier reiterates. (Betts will make $27MM in 2020 in the final season before he reaches free agency). As Speier observes, San Diego’s package of young talent would therefore have to top that of the Dodgers to compensate for the inclusion of some of Myers’ contract. The 29-year-old is due $61MM over the next three seasons. Coming off a season in which he hit just .239/.321/.418, Myers certainly wouldn’t approach that figure if he were on the open market now. San Diego would pay down some of Myers’ deal in the event of a trade, Speier notes; even still, the Red Sox would surely demand more valuable young talent with Myers included than they otherwise would have.

Among that young talent would figure to be an MLB-ready outfielder and starting pitcher, as well as some prospect help. San Diego has shown a willingness to discuss outfielders Manuel Margot (a former Red Sox prospect) and Josh Naylor, Speier reports, although any outfielders except Trent Grisham and Tommy Pham could be on the table. Starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Joey Lucchesi continue to garner some consideration, while any prospect package would likely be led by catcher Luis Campusano (Baseball America’s #79 overall prospect), Speier adds. Not all five players would be involved in a Betts trade, of course, and there are no doubt others who have come up in talks. The names under discussion give some early indication of what to expect if a Betts deal involving San Diego is completed, though.

From the Dodgers’ perspective, meanwhile, Alex Verdugo could be on the table, Speier reports. The 23-year-old former top prospect hit .294/.342/.475 (114 wRC+) in 377 plate appearances last season and comes with five years of team control, making him an eminently valuable trade piece. Other scenarios with the Dodgers still seem to be up in the air; the parties continue to discuss a package deal involving David Price and his three-year, $96MM contract, Speier notes, as well as deals that would send Betts alone to L.A.

Notably, the Athletic’s Peter Gammons noted this afternoon (via Twitter) that the Dodgers appear to be the frontrunner, with three sources characterizing Betts to L.A. as “inevitable.” Verdugo could indeed be on the table in such a scenario, Gammons hears; he further adds middle infield prospect Jeter Downs and pitcher Caleb Ferguson as names to monitor.

With spring training approaching, one of this offseason’s greatest dramas appears to be nearing its conclusion. Wherever Betts plays next season, he figures to again offer outstanding production. The 27-year-old has a .299/.389/.535 slash (140 wRC+) since the start of 2017. With elite baserunning and defense factored in, only Mike Trout has bested Mookie’s 22.4 fWAR over that time.

Latest On Padres-Red Sox Talks On Mookie Betts

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The chatter on Red Sox star Mookie Betts continues even as the opening of camp draws near. Three NL West organizations are reportedly engaged with the Boston organization on the exceptional right fielder, adding to the intrigue.

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune updates the situation from the Padres’ perspective, covering quite a few notable details on the discussions. The Friars are said to be trying to structure a deal around a pair of young MLB-level players: one outfielder (Manuel Margot or Josh Naylor) and one pitcher (Cal Quantrill or Joey Lucchesi).

Supposing that aspect of the prospective arrangement meets with the desires of the Boston front office, there’s still the matter of sorting out the money. As has been reported previously, the Friars wish to offload as much as possible of the Wil Myers contract, in no small part due to the fact that Betts is set to play for $27MM in 2020. But the sides are currently deadlocked on the dollars, with the Sox “offering to assume about half” of the $61MM still owed Myers and the Pads wishing “to eat only about a quarter.”

While a ~$15MM difference is no small matter, that’s not necessarily an unbridgeable gap. (At least, assuming the teams are seeing eye to eye on the other pieces.) But the Red Sox surely don’t want to sell low on a franchise stalwart. And the Padres are understandably wary of over-extending for a rental player.

Among the clubs pursuing Betts, the Padres are in the most speculative competitive position. They’re trying to move out of the NL West cellar and chase down the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. That won’t be an easy feat, even with Betts. While there’d always be a mid-season ripcord if things fall flat, and Betts is all but assured of receiving and declining a qualifying offer at season’s end, it’s questionable whether now is the time to push a bunch of chips in on a purely win-now move.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Reaction & Analysis To The Marcus Stroman Trade

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It was widely assumed that the Blue Jays were going to trade Marcus Stroman before the deadline, and many rumors suggested that he could eventually wind up in New York.  Exactly where in the Big Apple Stroman landed, however, ended up being the surprise, as it was the Mets (they of the 55-60 record and the six-game deficit in the NL wild card standings) who landed the right-hander, rather than the AL-leading Yankees.  The Mets acquired Stroman from the Jays for Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson, two of the Amazins’ top pitching prospects.

Today’s stunner of a deal has already led to quite a bit of reaction and speculation about what moves could come next.  The highlights…

  • The Mets have “hijacked the [pitching] market” with the trade, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan tweets.  The Mets’ plan is to keep Stroman, and “the likelihood is strong they deal at least one of” Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler.  Reports from earlier this week suggested that New York could try to sign Wheeler, a pending free agent, to a contract extension, though Passan feels a long-term deal with Wheeler is “increasingly unlikely.”
  • The Padres have been heavily linked to Syndergaard since the offseason, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that San Diego is “not optimistic” about landing the righty, since the Mets’ trade demands for Syndergaard are so high.  ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweeted earlier today that Manuel Margot had been discussed as part of the Mets/Padres talks.
  • Seth Lugo is another Mets pitcher “gaining late interest” in trade talks, the New York Daily News’ Deesha Thosar reports (Twitter link).  Lugo has been the Amazins’ best reliever this season, posting a 2.77 ERA, 11.94 K/9, and 5.15 K/BB rate over 52 innings.  Lugo is under control through the 2022 season, so he’d cost a hefty price in a trade, and one wonders if the Mets would even consider moving such a relatively inexpensive long-term asset since they’re planning to contend next year.  (Plus, Lugo becomes even more valuable to the pen if the Mets were to deal Edwin Diaz.)
  • Chris Hemsw….er, that is, Syndergaard himself poked fun at the trade speculation in a tweet of his own.
  • Several of The Athletic’s baseball writers (subscription required) joined forces for a roundtable discussion about the Stroman trade, with Jayson Stark perhaps summing things up with this comment that “Nobody can confuse an entire industry like the Mets.”  Multiple writers pointed out that the Mets’ poor infield defense doesn’t suit Stroman’s grounder-heavy attack.  If Stroman is the first step to flipping Syndergaard, it’s still an odd tactic for a team in win-now mode — as Tim Britton puts it, “New York is replacing [Syndergaard] in 2020 with someone [Stroman] older, with less team control, and whose track record is not quite as good.”  From the Blue Jays’ perspective, Kaitlyn McGrath notes that adding Kay and Woods Richardson meets Toronto’s desire for pitching depth, given the relative lack of young arms in the system.
  • Today’s deal ends Stroman’s often-controversial tenure with the Jays, as the Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm chronicles the multiple instances when the “fractured relationship” between Stroman and the Jays become public.  While a trade may have always been inevitable given the Blue Jays’ rebuild, “bad blood on both sides is one reason why a team desperate for pitching opted to trade one of its most talented arms,” Chisholm writes.
  • Stroman (via his Twitter account) did leave with grateful words for fans in Toronto and Canada, while also expressing excitement at returning to play for his hometown team.

Is Manuel Margot The Padres Centerfielder Of The Future?

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Centerfielder Manuel Margot has played himself back into the conversation for the San Diego Padres, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell.

If it seems like Margot has been around forever, that’s because he’s not only in his third season as a regular contributor in San Diego, but before that he was a key piece in the trade that sent Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox – after which he instantly became the top-rated prospect in the Padres’ system by MLB.com. He was the 26th-ranked prospect in the game at the start of 2016 when he looked like a potential future star in center, batting a projectable .263/.313/.409 as a 22-year-old rookie.

The Padres have had so many prospects enter the national conversation since that 2015 blockbuster that Margot has faded well into the background, not only on the national level but for the Padres as well. As it stands today, Margot’s career line of .251/.303/.394 doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence as the centerfielder of the future.

Still, he’s remarkably only 24-years-old, and as Cassavell points out, for a little over a month now, he’s raked. Since June 23, he’s holding a .260/.387/.519 line. Consider positive career defensive ratings in center (19 DRS, 11.8 UZR), and Margot may yet contribute to the next contender in San Diego.

Despite San Diego’s deep farm system, they don’t necessarily have their next centerfielder bookmarked. That plays in Margot’s favor, but it might also make the Padres all the more proactive in seeking an outside solution. Unless he can consistently put together quality results against right-handers, he’s more likely pegged for a future as a fourth outfielder, whether in San Diego or elsewhere.

The Padres best bet is to play out the string for the remainder of 2019 and hope he does enough to improve his stock for a potential offseason trade. His youth is encouraging, but he’s also approaching his first season of arbitration, making 2019 a put-up-or-shut-up season for Margot. His first time through arbitration won’t break the bank, but it does change his valuation moving forward. Another couple of months like his last, however, and Margot could change that valuation once again.

The Padres Have Yet To Resolve Their Outfield Crunch

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It’s been rumored for months that the Padres would eventually have to make some form of outfield move. The team has more outfield options than playing time available, and that’s only become truer as the season has worn on. Currently, the Padres are “discussing what it would look like” to keep rookie slugger Josh Naylor on the roster even after Franchy Cordero returns from the injured list, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune. Doing so could potentially mean optioning the struggling Manuel Margot to Triple-A El Paso, where he could receive everyday at-bats and work on his approach at the plate.

Long considered to be among the game’s top prospects, Margot is hitting just .241/.283/.321 on the season, although Naylor hasn’t demonstrated much in the way of on-base skills in his brief audition so far. The former first-round pick has two homers and two doubles in 37 plate appearances but has yet to draw a walk. He’s also punched out a dozen times (32.4 percent) en route to a .243/.243/.459 overall batting line.

Still, it seems the club is at least pondering whether an alignment consisting of Cordero, Naylor, Wil Myers, Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe is worth trying out. Defensively, there’s no true center field option, but any of the bunch could reasonably be expected to be more productive at the plate than Margot. Selling low on Margot surely isn’t something they’d prefer to do, but if the club is comfortable with Cordero or Myers in center, at least on a short-term basis, perhaps they’d more seriously explore the possibility.

As The Athletic’s Dennis Lin recently suggested (subscription required), San Diego would also be wise to explore the market for Renfroe given that his skill set is somewhat similar to that of Reyes, but he’s four years older. Renfroe was a frequently mentioned trade candidate in the winter and is out to a .250/.304/.619 start with 18 homers in 191 plate appearances. Margot is controlled through 2022 — Renfroe through 2023. Neither seems like a viable centerpiece for a premium trade acquisition, but both would hold some appeal to teams in search of controllable outfield depth.

Lin suggests that the Padres will be active both in looking to add long-term pieces — perhaps by condensing some of that outfield surplus and the team’s considerable prospect capital — while also being open-minded to moving current contributors. General manager A.J. Preller acknowledged that with the draft now in the past, trade talk becomes “a lot of the conversation for us,” which is generally true throughout the league.

Beyond Renfroe and Margot, the Padres would surely be open to shedding some of Wil Myers’ remaining contract, but the enormous financial commitment to him makes any trade difficult to piece together. Myers’ six-year, $83MM contract is extremely backloaded, such that he’ll earn $20MM in each of the 2020-22 seasons (plus a $1MM buyout on a 2023 club option). He’s hitting .232/.330/.442 with 11 homers, seven doubles and seven stolen bases through 218 plate appearances, but he’s also striking out in a career-worst 36.2 percent of his trips to the plate. He’s a capable enough corner outfielder but is overmatched in center, and his strikeout trouble will always hinder his on-base skills. It’s tough to imagine a trade involving Myers without the Padres taking back a similarly onerous contract or eating a substantial portion of salary.

It’s possible, then, that if the Friars do make a move, they’ll be sending away someone with significant team control remaining. Beyond the aforementioned Margot and Renfroe, Cordero is controlled through 2023, Reyes through 2024 and Naylor through 2025. The Padres are known to be on the lookout for starting pitchers they can control beyond the 2019 season, and parting with a pre-arbitration outfielder who has upwards of a half-decade of club control remaining would help them in that regard.

If the Friars are to explore possible trades for names like Marcus Stroman, Trevor Bauer or Matthew Boyd (to name a few), including a controllable outfielder as a piece of the puzzle would allow them to free up immediate playing time while also addressing the pitching staff both now and in the future. It’s worth nothing that each of the Blue Jays, Indians and the Tigers in particular have faced questions about their outfield production this season. Elsewhere in the league, the Phillies lost Andrew McCutchen for the remainder of the season due to an ACL tear just days after Odubel Herrera’s future became cloudy, at best, due to assault allegations. There are ample trade opportunities to explore, and more figure to emerge as the deadline draws nearer, but Naylor’s arrival and Cordero’s looming return make San Diego’s outfield feel more crowded than ever.

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