Manny Machado

The Padres and Manny Machado remain in discussions regarding a potential long-term contract extension, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic. There’s no indication an agreement is likely, through it comes as something of a surprise to hear conversations are still ongoing.

Machado implied last week he’d cut talks off when the sides hadn’t agreed to a deal by February 16, a self-imposed deadline representing the outset of Spring Training. At the time, the NL MVP runner-up said he “just wanted to focus on baseball” and “didn’t want to really continue talking about contracts or the business side of things” once exhibition play got underway.

The star third baseman wasn’t as firm when chatting with Lin about the situation today. “Deadlines are deadlines but they know where I stand,” Machado said. “The opportunity will arise if it comes to that. You know, nothing’s out of question. Obviously, they know how much San Diego means to me and what I want to be here. At the end of the day, they knew exactly where I was when that deadline was set. And we’ll see what happens. Our main focus right now is playing baseball. We’ll see.”

Machado is entering the fifth season of the ten-year free agent deal he signed over the 2018-19 offseason. The contract affords him the chance to opt out of the final five years and $150MM at the end of the 2023 campaign. Machado has already confirmed he’s planning to test the market at the end of the year. That declaration came as no surprise, as he’d be in position to handily beat a $150MM guarantee on the open market if he posted a season at similar levels to his last three years.

A new agreement with the Padres could make that a moot point. San Diego owner Peter Seidler told reporters this week re-signing Machado was his “top priority” (relayed by 97.3 FM The Fan). That obviously could take place after the season if/when Machado tests the market, but Lin’s report again raises the possibility of a deal coming together prior to Opening Day.

Financial terms presently under consideration aren’t known. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported last week the club had offered an additional $105MM over five seasons on top of his existing deal, which would’ve brought their outstanding commitment to $255MM between 2023-32.

Seidler has signed off a rapid spending hike over the past few seasons. The Friars trail only the Mets and Yankees in projected 2023 payroll. They signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280MM free agent pact this offseason and have already worked out a five-year extension with right-hander Yu Darvish this spring. Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Darvish and Joe Musgrove are all counting for more than $15MM annually for the foreseeable future.

That hasn’t deterred Seidler, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, and their staff from continuing to pursue star talent. The Friars took swings at Trea Turner and Aaron Judge before landing Bogaerts and clearly are hopeful of retaining Machado. They’re also down to two years of arbitration control with Juan Soto, who could be in position for one of the largest deals in MLB history when he hits free agency over the 2024-25 offseason.

Machado owns a .280/.352/.504 line in just under 2200 plate appearances as a Padre. He’s coming off perhaps the best season of his career, one in which he posted a .298/.366/.531 slash with 32 home runs to earn his sixth All-Star nod. Machado typically pairs that middle-of-the-order offense with excellent defensive marks at third base. He’s headed into his age-30 season, so any new deal (either an extension or free agent contract) would figure to come into play for his age-31 campaign and beyond.

Manny Machado set the Padres a deadline of February 16 to offer him an extension that would’ve meant he avoided free agency at the end of the 2023 season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. According to Acee, the Padres made just one offer to Machado two days prior to his deadline, offering to tack on an extra five-years and $105MM to his current deal. That would’ve taken their total commitment to Machado to 15-years, $405MM. Machado is planning to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and combining the remaining value of Machado’s contract (five-years, $150MM from 2024-28) with this new offer would’ve equated to a ten-year, $255MM deal.

According to Acee’s report, Machado confirmed in a brief interview that in early December he set the Padres a deadline of February 16  because “I just wanted to focus on baseball. So once the season started, I didn’t want to really continue talking about contracts or the business side of things. I just want to focus on my team and the guys in here and what our goal is — to win a championship. So (Thursday) was our deadline, and after that it was just focus on baseball, going out there and winning.” Machado’s interview also confirmed that he received just the one offer from San Diego, but did not confirm the terms reported.

Machado’s current ten-year, $300MM deal runs through the 2028 season, but contains a player opt out at the end of 2023. Machado confirmed just yesterday his intentions to exercise that clause and opt out of the remaining five-years, $150MM on his deal. That should come as no surprise, as Machado has been one of the game’s best players in recent seasons and at 30 is both young enough and good enough to earn a long term deal far surpassing what was remaining on his current contract.

While his 2023 season will naturally play a significant part in Machado’s market next winter, there certainly seems a strong case for him to pick up a bigger deal than the ten-year, $255MM deal the Padres have effectively offered him here. Machado’s been worth 11.7 fWAR over the past two seasons and has four career 6+ fWAR seasons. Compare that to his new team mate Xander Bogaerts, who inked an 11-year, $280MM deal with San Diego this winter. Bogaerts is a fine player, but he’s been worth 10.5 fWAR over the past two seasons and 2022 was his lone 6+ fWAR season. Of course, fWAR is not the determining factor in contract negotiations, but it serves as a relevant data point to consider why Machado might see himself as worth more on the open market than ten-years, $255MM.

Machado’s resume to date is nothing short of stellar. An MVP runner up in 2022, Machado has six All Star appearances, five top-five MVP finishes, two Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger to his name thus far. He’s a threat on both sides of the ball, as evidenced by his career 124 wRC+ and 97 Defensive Runs Saved at third base.

With Machado’s deadline now passed, it appears likelier than ever that he’ll hit the open market at the end of the season. As the likely top free agent not named Shohei Ohtani next winter, Machado seems a good chance to become the first ever player to sign multiple $300MM contracts in his career.

Padres superstar Manny Machado today confirmed to reporters, including Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post, that he plans on opting out of the remainder of his contract following the 2023 season. Machado signed his current 10-year, $300MM agreement with San Diego ahead of the 2019 season, and in opting out would leave five years, $150MM left on the table from his current contract.

This decision is no real surprise, as that $150MM figure appears to be one Machado should have no trouble beating on the open market next offseason, provided he remains healthy. After an offseason that saw top free agent Aaron Judge sign a $360MM deal that begins in his age 31 season, it seems like a reasonable bet that Machado, who would also be entering free agency ahead of his age 31 season, might become the first ever player to sign multiple $300MM contracts in his career, though he obviously would not be playing through the entirety of his first one.

Machado’s certainly performed at a level to this point in his career that would warrant such a contract. The runner-up for the NL MVP award in 2022, Machado has six All Star appearances, five top-5 MVP finishes, two Gold Gloves, and a Silver Slugger award under his belt. With a career 124 wRC+, strong defense at third base, and 46.4 fWAR already accrued in his career, Machado appears to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory, particularly considering the fact that his offensive game has taken a step up in recent seasons. Since the start of the 2018 season, Machado’s wRC+ is 133, and it jumps to 139 when examining the 2020-2022 seasons.

As Stephanie Apstein of Sports Illustrated notes, Machado is looking to sign for double-digit years, a mark Judge barely missed with his nine-year pact this offseason but shortstops Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts both managed to eclipse. This appears to be a reasonable ask, particularly given that Machado seems likely to be the consensus top free agent in the 2023-24 free agent class after two-way unicorn Shohei Ohtani. A 10-year deal for Machado would take him through his age-40 campaign, an age teams seem to be increasingly willing to sign players through this offseason than in years past.

The Padres, themselves, are at the forefront of this movement toward signing players to longer deals. They signed both Bogaerts and Yu Darvish to deals that will take them beyond their 40th birthdays this offseason, and made similar offers to both Turner and Judge as well. Despite Machado’s plans to opt-out following the 2023 campaign, there appears to be interest in an extension, with the Padres reportedly set to pursue a new deal with Machado this spring, it’s possible that San Diego’s comfort in signing players through their age-40 seasons would give them a leg up in negotiations.

On the other hand, the Padres are in a somewhat difficult payroll situation. They’re a lock to pay into the luxury tax in 2023, already have two long-term megadeals on the books in Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr., and on top of all that, Juan Soto’s free agency is looming following the 2024 season. It seems to be a reasonable question as to whether or not they can maintain their current payroll levels at all, much less add to them as they would need to in order to retain Machado and Soto.