Luis Robert

Super-talented, MLB-ready 22-year-olds don’t grow on trees. If you do happen upon one, what are the odds they perfectly fit your roster need and contention window? Viewed from that perspective, and accounting for the context of MLB player valuation, the $50MM risk the White Sox took on Luis Robert is a slam dunk.

Of course, all of that guaranteed cash is payable over a six-year term — the precise amount of time the club could’ve enjoyed him in the majors even without promising another dime. And it could’ve been nearly seven full seasons with a bit of service-time trickery. So, the South Siders are only gaining control over one or two seasons of would-be free agency. (Which is it? Depends upon one’s cynicism levels. And the as-yet-unknown question whether Robert will need to spend further time in the minors once he reaches the big leagues.)

Presuming the options are exercised, the deal maxes out at $88MM over eight campaigns. And that’s on top of the $26MM that the team spent just to lure Robert into the organization in the first place! Compare that to Mookie Betts, one of the game’s most productive younger players, who just secured a record-setting $27MM salary for his final trip through arbitration. The Red Sox and Dodgers got 6+ seasons of Betts for a total cost of about $60MM in salary.

Now, there’s inflation to consider. Betts’s earnings wouldn’t have been nearly that robust had he debuted six seasons earlier. If Robert can produce something like Betts, he’ll surely out-earn Mookie. And the White Sox are picking up one or two added seasons of control, which could be quite valuable. We know how much the Dodgers valued the chance to control Betts for just one season, even while paying him a big salary. Again: if Robert has a career path of that kind, then those option years will be an enormous boon to the White Sox.

The thing is, it’s not really reasonable to compare Robert to a guy like Betts. Can he perform to that level? Sure, he’s considered one of the very best prospects in all of baseball for a reason. But that’s hardly the likeliest outcome. Even putting aside the question of talent and production, there are numerous hiccups that can stall a player’s arbitration earning power. Carlos Correa is only earning $7.4MM in his second-to-last arb-eligible campaign — less than half of what contemporary Francisco Lindor will earn ($16.7MM). Rewind two years and these guys looked like a coin flip on value. As it turns out, Correa dealt with ill-timed injuries that significantly dented his ability to earn via arbitration.

Running the numbers, it’s hard to imagine you could really go much higher with an up-front guarantee for a pre-MLB player — at least, perhaps, unless the team was able to pick up yet more future control. The Robert contract, which tops the White Sox’ deal last year with Eloy Jimenez, included a pretty hefty premium to achieve cost certainty and some added control (along with, perhaps, the ability to promote him on Opening Day 2020 without concern for service time). That said, the White Sox have an excellent track record with extensions, having achieved big value in the past with players such as Chris Sale and Adam Eaton.

How do you view the deal? (Poll link for app users.)

The White Sox recently made their latest bold move in a winter full of them, signing center fielder Luis Robert to a six-year, $50MM extension last week. Although the 22-year-old Robert has never played above the Triple-A level, setting his price for the foreseeable future came off as a worthwhile risk by the White Sox. Those types of gambles have become a trend for the club, which took the same approach before last season in inking left fielder Eloy Jimenez to a six-year, $43MM guarantee. Because Chicago was no longer concerned about Jimenez’s service time after extending him, he predictably cracked its Opening-Day roster. As expected, Jimenez went on to further establish himself as an integral long-term building block for the White Sox.

The team no doubt expects Robert to follow Jimenez’s lead this year in cementing himself as a foundational piece. Odds are that Robert, like Jimenez last year, will get a chance to do so from Day 1 of the season. Assuming that’s the case, he’ll take over for the White Sox’s most common center fielders from 2019 – Leury Garcia and Adam Engel – as their primary option. Garcia and Engel combined for a a passable 2.1 fWAR last season, though they didn’t offer much at the plate, totaling an unimposing .269/.308/.379 batting line with 14 home runs and 18 stolen bases.

Considering Robert has no experience in the majors, there’s no guarantee he’ll outproduce Garcia and Engel in his first taste of the majors. On the other hand, as en elite prospect (MLB.com ranks him third in the game) who has run roughshod over high-minors pitching, Robert’s a legitimate candidate to begin his career with a flourish. Robert hadn’t played above High-A ball until last season, when he destroyed Double-A (.314/.362/.518 in 244 plate appearances) en route to a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte. There was no shortage of offense in the International League, but the .297/.341/.634 slash Robert registered in 223 attempts was still 36 percent better than the league’s average hitter, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric.

It’s too much to ask for Robert to hit that well in the majors this season, of course. Nevertheless, projections on his rookie season are bullish. For instance, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS system calls for 2.3 fWAR, a .265/.309/.455 line, 20 homers and 24 steals over 539 plate appearances. That would go down as a similar first full season to the one Nationals budding star center fielder Victor Robles recorded in 2019, an age-22, 617-PA campaign in which he posted 2.5 fWAR, slashed .255/.326/.419, swatted 17 HRs and stole 28 bases.

For the purpose of this poll, we’ll set the WAR over/under at ZiPS’ forecast, 2.3. Do you expect Robert to meet, exceed or fall short of that figure in 2020?

(Poll link for app users)