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Yankees Sign Ryan Yarbrough

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10:57am: The Yankees have formally announced the contract. Gil was placed on the 60-day IL to open a roster spot for Yarbrough.

9:45am: Yarbrough is guaranteed $2MM on the deal and can earn another $250K via incentives, ESPN’s Jorge Castillo reports. Since the Yankees are in the top tier of luxury penalization, that comes with a 110% tax. Yarbrough will cost them a total of $4.2MM.

9:16am: The Yankees and free agent left-hander Ryan Yarbrough have agreed to a major league contract, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Excel Sports client opted out of a minor league deal with the division-rival Blue Jays over the weekend and was granted his release.

Yarbrough, 33, has spent the bulk of his career in the AL East, most of it with the Rays, for whom he pitched from 2018-22. He spent about half the 2024 season with the Jays, pitching well after coming over in a trade with the Dodgers. Yarbrough logged 31 1/3 frames with Toronto and notched a pristine 2.01 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate.

Yarbrough finished the ’24 season with a career-low 3.19 ERA in 98 2/3 innings, but that came with a paltry 16.3% strikeout rate and one of the tamest fastballs in the sport — averaging just 86.5 mph, per Statcast. Yarbrough sat 89-90 mph as a starter early in his career, but like new teammate Tim Hill, is now more reliant on an unusual delivery and soft contact. Yarbrough rarely allows hard contact (29.4%) and has plus command that helps him offset his lack of missed bats.

That reliance on soft contact does lead to some year-to-year inconsistencies in Yarbrough’s ERA, but the cumulative results have been solid. In 768 big league innings, Yarbrough has a 4.21 earned run average with an 18.7% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate. His history as a starter and more recent track record as a multi-inning reliever — last year’s 98 2/3 frames came in 44 appearances — surely held appeal to a Yankees club that has seen its rotation plagued by injuries this spring. Yarbrough probably won’t step into the rotation at any point, but he’s a nice long man to have on hand at a time when rotation depth is thinner than expected. His addition on a big league deal likely pushes waiver claim and fellow southpaw Brent Headrick to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to begin the season.

The Yankees will need to open a 40-man roster spot to make Yarbrough’s deal official, though given that just-mentioned slate of injuries, that shouldn’t be an issue. Gerrit Cole was already moved to the 60-day IL when the team selected Carlos Carrasco’s contract over the weekend, but the Yankees still have multiple 60-day IL candidates. Luis Gil will miss months due to a lat strain, and while an exact timetable for Giancarlo Stanton’s return from tendon injuries in both elbows, it doesn’t seem like he’s a candidate to make his 2025 debut anytime soon.

Poll: The Yankees’ Priorities

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It’s been a tough spring for the Yankees on the injury front. The club has faced a number of noteworthy injuries, with the latest blow being the loss of veteran ace Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the entire 2025 season, while rotation-mate Luis Gil is set to miss a couple of months after suffering a lat strain. The lineup has been impacted as well, with slugger Giancarlo Stanton poised to miss significant time due to elbow issues while likely starting third baseman DJ LeMahieu has been sidelined by a calf strain.

Each of those injuries have prompted varying levels of speculations that the club could look to bring in some help, but the Yankees are seemingly facing fairly strict budget limits. RosterResource projects them for a $285MM payroll. The Yanks have shown little interest in adding payroll, and their projected $305MM competitive balance tax number is already above the $301MM top tax threshold. It would be fairly difficult to make lineup and rotation additions with limited budget space and a limited supply available to them. General manager Brian Cashman downplayed the possibility of the Yankees making a notable addition, citing the current tax situation as an obstacle.

Perhaps the most obvious choice for an upgrade would be the starting rotation. The Yankees are already down at least one starter for the entire 2025 season, and while Marcus Stroman can step into the rotation as a #5 starter relatively seamlessly, the depth beyond him gets shakier. Non-roster invitee Carlos Carrasco has an ugly 6.18 ERA over his past two seasons, while prospect Will Warren struggled to a 10.32 ERA in his big league debut last year with an ERA near 6.00 at Triple-A. A steadier depth arm like Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson would make plenty of sense for a rotation that has multiple pitchers with notable injury histories.

The Yankees do have plenty of high-end talent in the rotation that could help to make up for the lack of depth. Max Fried is a legitimate No. 1 starter in his own right. Carlos Rodon is just two seasons removed from earning Cy Young votes. Clarke Schmidt posted a sterling 2.85 ERA in 16 starts last year. With the reigning AL Rookie of the Year set to join the rotation at some point this year, perhaps the Yankees’ needs are more acute in the lineup.

The idea of filling Stanton’s spot in the lineup is made more intriguing by the presence of a comparable veteran lingering in free agenct. J.D. Martinez remains on the market, and the two sluggers have produced nearly identical offensive value over the past five years: Stanton has slashed .231/.313/.473 with a 117 wRC+, while Martinez has hit .263/.330/.477 with a wRC+ of 118. Even with Martinez coming off a relative down season and a particularly tough second half with the Mets last year, it’s easy to see why having Martinez fill in for Stanton could be very appealing. The Yankees have had at least “some contact” with Martinez since Stanton was sidelined.

Then again, it’s fair to argue that Stanton is the easiest of the injured Yankees to replace in-house. Ben Rice has impressed during Spring Training and was already in the conversation for the backup catcher job. He could be tabbed as a potential DH option against right-handed hitters. Another solution would be giving regulars more rest by playing them at DH on occasion. If the club places Trent Grisham in center field for a day rather than Cody Bellinger, Stanton’s injury could let them give Bellinger a partial rest day at DH or have him back up any of Jasson Dominguez, Aaron Judge, or even Paul Goldschmidt so they could get a rest day of their own.

Third base has also been a question throughout camp. LeMahieu seems like he’ll have a shorter absence than Stanton, but even coming off a down season, his injury thins out the infield options. A mix of LeMahieu, Oswald Peraza, and Oswaldo Cabrera always looked fairly uninspiring. An MLBTR poll late last month suggested that a plurality of respondents believed the club’s primary third baseman would be someone not yet in the organization.

The third base market — and second base market, if Jazz Chisholm Jr. plays third instead — has largely been picked over, however. The Yankees were connected to infield options like Jose Iglesias and Jorge Polanco at points throughout the offseason and into Spring Training, but both veterans have since landed elsewhere. Nolan Arenado is known to be willing to waive his no-trade clause to join the Yankees, but it’s unlikely New York would be willing to take on his contract. Veteran Whit Merrifield remains available in free agency but isn’t a clear upgrade coming off a downturn in production at the plate. Perhaps upcoming opt-out opportunities for non-roster veterans and players made available on waivers due to roster crunches when Opening Day draws near will present a more viable solution.

How do MLBTR readers think the Yankees should address their injury-created holes? Will the club sign/acquire a starter to deepen its oft-injured rotation mix? Or could the Yankees instead turn to the lineup and either replace Stanton at DH or look for an upgrade to the infield? Have your say in the poll below:

Gerrit Cole Going For Imaging On Elbow

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March 8: According to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, the results of Cole’s initial diagnostic tests have been distributed, and the right-hander is now in the process of seeking a second opinion. While Cole told reporters (including Hoch) that he is “concerned” about his elbow, the 2023 AL Cy Young winner also expressed a bit of optimism. “I’ve still got some hope,” he said. Per Hoch, Cole and the Yankees expect to know more about the status of his elbow in the next few days.

March 7: Gerrit Cole is heading for “diagnostic tests” on his throwing elbow, reports Jon Morosi of the MLB Network. It’s not currently clear whether the Yankees fear a significant injury, or if the testing is more precautionary in nature. In either case, it’s certainly not encouraging news after Cole missed the first couple months of 2024 with elbow inflammation.

It was almost exactly one year ago today that Yankees skipper Aaron Boone revealed that Cole was headed for an MRI. The 2023 Cy Young winner was having difficulty recovering between throwing sessions. Testing didn’t reveal any structural damage, but an inflammation diagnosis necessitated a month-long shutdown. Cole began the season on the 60-day injured list; he didn’t make his season debut until June 19.

Cole stayed healthy for the remainder of the season, aside from one skipped start due to what the team termed general body soreness. He turned in a 3.41 earned run average across 17 starts. While he struggled over his first few outings, Cole was dominant from the beginning of August through the end of the regular season. He turned in a 2.25 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate while holding opponents to a .182/.255/.248 slash line over his final 10 appearances.

The 34-year-old righty took the ball another five times in the postseason. He worked to a 2.17 ERA across 29 playoff innings, but his strikeout rate in October plummeted to a meager 17.7% clip. After the season, he and the Yankees were faced with a decision on his contract. Cole decided to opt out of the remaining four years and $144MM on his nine-year deal. He hoped the Yanks would override that by preemptively triggering a $36MM club option for 2029. The team declined to do so but allowed him to rescind the opt-out and remain with the team on his original contract.

Cole has taken the ball twice during Spring Training. He looked sharp in his first appearance, working 3 1/3 innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts on February 28. The Twins torched him for six runs on five hits (including a pair of homers) over 2 2/3 frames yesterday. That alone isn’t cause for concern — Spring Training results are largely immaterial — but Cole evidently hasn’t felt completely healthy. His fastball has averaged 95.5 MPH during his spring work, according to Brooks Baseball. That’s around where it sat last March, a bit below the 97 MPH velocity he’d shown in previous Spring Trainings.

The Yankees won’t have much to report until they receive the imaging results. Even if there’s no structural damage, it seems likely Cole will begin the season on the injured list. The Yanks already lost 2024 Rookie of the Year Luis Gil to a severe lat strain. GM Brian Cashman said on Thursday that the Yankees anticipate an absence of at least three months for the young right-hander (relayed by Greg Joyce of The New York Post). Depth starter JT Brubaker broke three ribs trying to dodge a comebacker early in camp.

New York signed Max Fried to an eight-year, $218MM free agent deal. He’ll probably get the ball on Opening Day. Clarke Schmidt and Carlos Rodón will follow in the rotation. Marcus Stroman, who entered camp sixth on the depth chart, now projects as the fourth starter. A season-opening IL stint could draw Will Warren or out-of-options righty Yoendrys Gómez into the rotation. New York has Carlos Carrasco and Allan Winans in camp as non-roster invitees.

If Cole winds up missing a decent chunk of time, the Yanks could look to a late free agent acquisition. Veteran innings eater Kyle Gibson remains unsigned; he’s throwing side sessions to stay loose in advance of his age-37 season. Swingman Spencer Turnbull has a spotty injury history but pitched well in 54 1/3 innings for the Phillies last year. Patrick Corbin and former Yankee Lance Lynn are also still free agents.

In a smaller injury development, the Yanks announced this morning that reliever Tyler Matzek sustained a mild right oblique strain (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). The veteran southpaw could resume throwing early next week, but the injury takes him out of consideration for the Opening Day roster. Matzek is in camp as a non-roster invitee. He has tossed one scoreless inning.

MLBTR Podcast: Jose Quintana, Luis Gil’s Injury, The Nats’ TV Situation, Salary Floor Talk, And More!

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • With MASN now solved and stadium naming rights and jersey patches on the way do you see the Nationals making the leap into big spenders sooner than later? (12:30)
  • Do you see the MLBPA pushing for a salary floor? (22:05)
  • Will the White Sox trade Luis Robert Jr. before the start of the regular season? (25:20)
  • While neither is particularly likely, is it more probable that the Pirates extend Paul Skenes or the Reds extend Elly De La Cruz? (27:40)
  • What is your opinion of the White Sox upper management and will they lose 100 games this year? (30:45)
  • The Mets are loaded with infield prospects. Do they trade Jeff McNeil to make room? (37:30)
  • With the Tigers’ outfield injuries, do they go get a right-handed bat? And who is available? (42:00)
  • With the Mariners bringing back most of their position players, what are the chances they get better production from them in 2025? (44:30)
  • Does David Bote have a legitimate shot to make the Dodgers’ roster? (50:35)
  • Why doesn’t MLB expand to 36 teams instead of just 32? (51:35)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Luis Gil To Be Shut Down For At Least Six Weeks Due To Lat Strain

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Yankees manager Aaron Boone informed reporters, including Greg Joyce of The New York Post, that right-hander Luis Gil has a high-grade lat strain. Gil will be shut down from throwing for at least six weeks. Even if he is declared healthy at that point, he would effectively have to restart his spring ramp-up period, so he’s likely out until late May or early June even in a best-case scenario.

It was reported last week that Gil had experienced some shoulder tightness during a bullpen session and would be going for an MRI. It seems that a significant strain was detected which will impact the start of his 2025 season. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com relayed over a minute of Boone’s comments, during which the skipper said there are still some further examinations to be done which could reveal more info but that the six-week no-throw is confirmed.

It’s obviously a frustrating development for both Gil and the Yankees. The young pitcher just won the American League Rookie of the Year award in 2024. He tossed 151 2/3 innings over 29 starts, allowing 3.50 earned runs per nine. His 12.1% walk rate was on the high side but his 26.8% strikeout rate was quite strong.

That excellent season came on the heels of a lengthy injury absence. Gil had a brief major league debut in 2021 before Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2022 and 2023 seasons. He returned and posted his aforementioned excellent results last year but now his health is now going to be at the forefront again.

The Yankees will now have to adjust their rotation plans, though the good news is that the solution should be pretty simple. The Yanks made a massive $218MM investment in Max Fried this offseason, which seemed to give them a rotation surplus. The club had an on-paper group of Fried, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt and Gil. That seemingly left Marcus Stroman on the outside looking in and the club reportedly tried to find ways to trade Stroman and the remainder of his contract.

No deal came together, so Stroman reported to camp and has been getting stretched out as a starter. With Gil now set to be on the shelf for a significant time, Stroman should be able to step into a rotation spot without issue.

Perhaps the rotation will again be crowded a few months from now if Gil is able to get healthy, though it’s also possible that other injuries will change the situation between now and then. Though the Yanks are still slated to go into the season with a strong front five, the depth has been thinned out a bit this spring. In addition to losing Gil, prospect Chase Hampton required Tommy John surgery. JT Brubaker, who projected to be a long reliever in the bullpen, suffered three fractured ribs trying to evade a comebacker and has an uncertain timeline.

Behind the rotation of Cole, Fried, Rodón, Schmidt and Stroman, perhaps the out-of-options Yoendrys Gómez can make the Opening Day Roster in the long relief role. Will Warren and Brent Headrick are on the roster and have options, perhaps meaning they will be in the Triple-A rotation. Carlos Carrasco is in camp as some veteran non-roster depth.

Luis Gil To Undergo Shoulder MRI; JT Brubaker Suffers Rib Fractures

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Yankees right-hander Luis Gil felt some shoulder tightness during a bullpen session today and is heading for an MRI tomorrow. Manager Aaron Boone relayed the information to reporters, including Greg Joyce of the New York Post. Boone also revealed, per Joyce, that JT Brubaker broke three ribs trying to avoid a comebacker last week. No timeline was provided for Brubaker’s return.

At this point, there’s little information available on Gil and it can only be speculated what comes next. However, an MRI indicates that the club has at least some level of concern about the discomfort in his shoulder.

Any injury absence would obviously be unwelcome news for Gil and the Yankees. The righty missed most of 2022 and 2023 due to Tommy John surgery and the subsequent recovery period, but he returned with a big flourish in 2024. Despite the long layoff, Gil managed to take the ball 29 times and toss 151 2/3 innings for the Yankees last year, plus two more postseason starts. He finished the regular season with a 3.50 earned run average and 26.8% strikeout rate. The 12.1% walk rate was a little high but Gil worked around that enough to win American League Rookie of the Year honors.

Brubaker still hasn’t pitched for the Yankees. He was acquired from the Pirates going into 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He started a rehab assignment in June but then got held back by an oblique strain, which kept him on the IL through the end of the year. Prior to his surgery, he posted a 4.99 ERA in 315 2/3 innings over three seasons with the Bucs from 2020 to 2022.

It’s obviously not ideal for a club’s rotation mix to potentially lose two members but the good news is that the Yankee rotation will still be in strong position even if Gil and/or Brubaker need to miss some time. The Yanks have such a packed rotation that they have been trying to unload Marcus Stroman for weeks.

No deal has come together and Stroman is getting stretched out in spring, so he could easily step into a rotation spot alongside Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt. Brubaker’s injury, and Chase Hampton’s recent Tommy John surgery, will thin out the depth a bit but the club has other potential arms there.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at some notable out of options players coming into the 2025 season in a piece for Front Office subscribers, highlighting Yoendrys Gómez as one of them. Gómez didn’t seem to have a path to a roster spot as of a few hours ago but dual IL stints for Gil and Brubaker would obviously help him. The Yanks also have Will Warren and Brent Headrick on the 40-man roster. Veteran Carlos Carrasco is in camp as a non-roster invitee.

Ideally, Gil’s MRI will find nothing of note and he will be fine after a bit of rest. But even in the event something more significant is found, the Yanks seem well absorbed to put together a strong pitching staff in the short term, a strong demonstration of the “you can never have too much pitching” cliché.

Details On Yankees’ Pursuit Of Kyle Tucker

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Before Kyle Tucker was traded from the Astros to the Cubs, the Yankees were known to be one of the teams also vying to land the star outfielder.  Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil was reportedly of interest to the Astros in these trade talks, but New York ultimately turned down Houston’s demand for Gil and infield prospect George Lombard Jr. in exchange for Tucker, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

It makes for an interesting contrast to the trade package that the Astros did accept from Chicago.  Lombard and prospect Cam Smith could be viewed as essentially a match as recent first-round draft picks, though Smith is higher regarded in the view of MLB Pipeline (Smith is 73rd on their top-100 prospect list and Lombard isn’t on the list).  Gil is a controllable pitcher who has already made a name for himself at the big league level, so Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski represent something of a split of those two resume points.  Wesneski is controlled through 2029 and has a solid 3.93 ERA over his 190 Major League innings, but he isn’t considered to have quite Gil’s ceiling, so making up that difference could’ve been achieved by adding a proven hitter like Paredes.

Landing three players instead of two obviously allowed the Astros to address more needs, as Paredes can help fill one of Houston’s corner infield vacancies and Wesneski brings rotation depth.  Gil would’ve been a more clear-cut installation into the Astros rotation and perhaps then necessitated another trade, since the Astros on paper have a surplus of rotation options.  However, since Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are both returning from lengthy injury absences, the Astros might also want to see how things play out in Spring Training before dealing an arm, lest the club again get caught with a lack of depth in the rotation.

Interestingly, the Yankees did indeed trade a starting pitcher and an infield prospect for a prominent star player with one year remaining before free agency, except rather than Gil/Lombard for Tucker, it was Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin going to the Brewers for closer Devin Williams.  The two trade packages have some differences, of course, as Cortes is a year away from free agency, and was viewed a more expendable part of New York’s pitching mix since he was relegated to bullpen duty in the playoffs and was floated in trade rumors at the deadline.  Durbin is also over five years older than Lombard and is considered to be on the verge of his MLB debut, whereas Lombard has yet to reach even the Double-A level.

The timing of the negotiations between the Astros and Yankees was perhaps also a factor.  If the Yankees were already well down the road in talks with Milwaukee about Williams, that might’ve made the Bronx Bombers less likely to deplete their pitching and prospect depth even further by accepting the Astros’ offer for Tucker.  Some New York fans might well wonder “why not both?”, as even without Gil or Cortes, the Yankees still have a projected starting five of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, Marcus Stroman, and newly-signed frontline arm Max Fried.  Acquiring both Tucker and Williams would’ve left the Yankees still in search of infield help and now a “sixth starter” type of depth arm, but those are perhaps minor question marks compared to the upside of bringing both an All-Star outfielder and All-Star closer into the mix.

Gil is a known quantity to baseball fans, but the 19-year-old Lombard was the 26th overall pick of the 2023 draft.  Baseball America and MLB Pipeline each rank Lombard as the third-best prospect in New York’s farm system, viewing him as a very solid all-around player with five-tool potential, even if he perhaps lacks a true plus-plus calling card.  Lombard has played mostly shortstop in the minors and evaluators feel he can stick at the position, but he has also seen time at second and third base.  Lombard’s approach and overall hitting potential are both considered good, though he hit only .231/.338/.334 over 497 combined plate appearances with A-level Tampa and high-A Hudson Valley in 2024.

Latest On Yankees’ Offseason Plans

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The Yankees’ offseason was largely focused on Juan Soto until he agreed to a new deal with the Mets, which has pushed the Yanks towards various backup plans. They now have agreements in place with Max Fried and Jonathan Loáisiga but there’s still plenty more work to be done. They are seemingly looking for an outfielder, a couple of infielders and more bullpen help. That could come from further free agent signings but they also have a rotation surplus that could help them on the trade market.

One name they have frequently been connected to is Cody Bellinger of the Cubs. He is capable of playing either the outfield or first base, two spots where the Yankees need help, though Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Yanks probably view Bellinger as a better fit in left field.

The Yanks are expected to move Aaron Judge back to right field, after he served as the club’s primary center fielder while sharing the roster with Soto. Now that Soto is gone, it seems the plan is to give Jasson Domínguez a chance to seize the center field job, with Trent Grisham around as a glove-first insurance option. They would still need a solution in left, since Alex Verdugo is now a free agent, though Bellinger is a possibility there. Bellinger has played left field far less than center or right but there’s no reason to think he couldn’t handle himself over there.

Lining up with the Cubs on value may be an issue, however. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Cubs are hoping for the Yankees to take on most of his remaining contract, while the Yanks think the Cubs should be eating some more money in the deal.

Bellinger had a chance to opt out of his deal last month and didn’t take it, which implies that he thinks his current contract is better than what he could get on the open market, at least for now. He is set to make $27.5MM in 2025, then with a choice between a $5MM buyout or a $25MM salary in 2026. If he were a free agent right now, he could perhaps secure a long-term deal with a guarantee larger than the $52.5MM he’s currently owed, but his current deal has short-term appeal. There is still a path towards him having a good season in 2025, banking $32.5MM this year and returning to the open market.

That would be the best case scenario for the Yankees or any acquiring team. If Bellinger produces at a level commensurate with that salary and leaves, that’s a nice scenario for the upcoming campaign. But there’s also the alternate reality where he disappoints, it overpaid this coming season and then sticks around for 2026 as well.

Bellinger’s inconsistent career makes either path possible to see and teams will have differing opinions about which is more likely or what they are willing to risk for the right to take a chance. At the moment, it seems the Yankees and Cubs aren’t in alignment on the calculations but Heyman says progress has been made this week.

Though he won an MVP award back in 2019, Bellinger struggled immensely in 2021 and 2022 while trying to get back in form after shoulder surgery. His past two seasons have both been good but to varying degrees. He hit .307/.356/.525 for a 136 wRC+ in 2023 while stealing 20 bases, but then hit .266/.325/.426 for a 109 wRC+ this year while swiping nine bags.

Another possible target area for the Yanks is third base. They do have Jazz Chisholm Jr. as an in-house possibility there, but he could move him to second base if they were to acquire someone like Nolan Arenado or Alex Bregman for the hot corner.

The Cardinals are exploring the market for Arenado, who has a full no-trade clause. It was reported earlier this week that Arenado is willing to approve trades to six teams. The Yankees weren’t on there but it’s possible that the list wasn’t exhaustive. Feinsand relays that it’s expected Arenado would approve a trade to the Bronx. That’s a logical conclusion since Arenado seems to want to play for a contender and there’s no doubting the Yanks qualify there. They just made it to the World Series and are clearly being aggressive in ramping up for another push next year.

Arenado hasn’t been his usual self over the past two years, however, and it’s fair to wonder if he can get back there now that he’s on the cusp of his 34th birthday. He hit .293/.358/.533 for a 149 wRC+ as recently as 2022 but has slashed a combined .269/.320/.426 for a 104 wRC+ over the past two years. His strong third base defense still makes him an attractive option but, like Bellinger, he’s making notable money. He is set to make $74MM over the next three years, though the Rockies are covering $10MM of that and there are also deferrals.

Bregman is likely viewed as a better option in the short term, but there are complications. He’s going into his age-31 season, making him notably younger than Arenado. He doesn’t quite have the same defensive reputation but is above average in the field. He hit .260/.315/.453 for a 118 wRC+ inf 2024 and was even better after an early-season slump. He hit .280/.329/.509 from May 9 through the end of the year for a 137 wRC+.

But as a free agent, he’s going to command a contract larger than what’s left on Arenado’s deal. MLBTR predicted him for a contract worth $182MM over seven years and the market has been hot so far this winter, so that might be selling him short at this point. There’s also the lingering resentment from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal that was eventually brought to light, creating enough bitterness that general manager Brian Cashman brought it up unprompted during a recent appearance on MLB Network. However, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports that Bregman’s involvement in that scandal would not stand in the way of the Yankees pursuing him.

In the bullpen, both Feinsand and Hoch mention that the Yankees are interested in left-hander Tanner Scott for their bullpen. He just wrapped up a season in which he posted a 1.75 earned run average, 28.6% strikeout rate, 12.2% walk rate and 50% ground ball rate. The Yankees have a longstanding affinity for ground ball guys and don’t really have a left-handed reliever on the roster at the moment, with Tim Hill and Tim Mayza now free agents.

Scott would be a great fit but should be popular and could earn a notable contract. MLBTR predicted him for $56MM over four years and the aforementioned hot market could make that estimate low at this point.

As the Yankees assess those possible acquisitions, they are also going to be fielding offers on their starting pitchers. They now have Fried, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman as established rotation options, plus depth pieces like JT Brubaker, Cody Poteet, Will Warren and others. Cortes and Stroman have been in trade rumors before but Hoch reports that Gil and Schmidt have drawn interest and Cashman tells him that the club will be “open-minded to all possibilities.”

It’s unsurprising that Gil and Schmidt would draw interest. Gil just won American League Rookie of the Year after posting a 3.50 ERA for the Yanks. Schmidt had a 2.85 ERA but was limited by injury to just 16 starts. Gil is still in his pre-arbitration years and can be controlled through 2028 while Schmidt is projected for a modest $3.5MM next year by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be controlled through 2027.

Storman and Cortes would have less trade value. Stroman is coming off a middling season in which he posted a 4.31 ERA and got bumped from the rotation by the end of the year. He’s going to make $18MM next year and could also unlock a player option of the same value for 2026 if he pitches 140 innings next year. Cortes is now one year away from free agency with a projected $7.7MM salary next year. He had a decent 3.77 ERA this past year but his strikeout rate fell for the third year in a row and he missed a lot of time due to injuries in 2023.

Though Gil or Schmidt would have more value to another club, that’s also true of the Yankees. Their competitive balance tax number is now estimated at $264MM, per RosterResource, meaning they are already over the second tax tier of $261MM and within striking distance of the $281MM third tier. Going over that third tier leads to escalating penalties and also the club’s top draft pick being pushed back ten spots. That is seen as a line for some clubs but the Yanks just finished 2024 with a CBT number of $313MM, so it may not be any kind of red line.

There are still various paths forward for the Yanks via free agency and trade. They’ve also been linked to Christian Walker, Kyle Tucker and plenty of others. Though it’s now the middle of December, their offseason is still very much in the early stages.

Latest On Kyle Tucker’s Trade Candidacy

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11:15am: Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic confirmed Houston’s interest in Smith, Paredes, and Gil in a report this morning while also noting that the Astros have interest in Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki is a trade candidate in his own right but club brass has downplayed their interest in moving him. That disinclination to part with Suzuki is confirmed by the report from Rosenthal and Rome, who note the Cubs are “highly unlikely” to move him.

10:03am: On the heels of Astros GM Dana Brown acknowledging earlier this week that the club isn’t ruling out a trade of either Kyle Tucker with free agency looming next winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post described the Yankees as among the teams “most seriously” pursuing the outfielder. Sherman adds that the Cubs are viewed as a “strong player” in Tucker’s market as well, however, while the Giants are also involved. The Phillies have “at least inquired” on Tucker previously, per Sherman, but while they tried to put together a package for the outfielder it’s unclear whether or not they remain involved in his market.

Buzz surrounding the possibility of a Tucker trade has increased in the days since Juan Soto signed his record-breaking deal with the Mets, and as the Yankees turn towards their contingency plans for if they failed to reunite with Soto it’s hardly a surprise that they would be involved in talks regarding another star right fielder. Both New York and Chicago’s interest in Tucker’s services has been previously reported, but Sherman’s report notably suggests that the Astros are prioritizing big-league ready corner infield and starting rotation help in trade talks surrounding Tucker. While the Yankees themselves are lacking in corner infield talent, the club reached an agreement with lefty Max Fried yesterday to create a surplus in their rotation, and Sherman adds the Astros are said to be “very interested” in reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.

The Cubs, by contrast, are flush in the sort of young talent that the Astros seem to be prioritizing. Top infield prospect Matt Shaw is primarily a second baseman by trade but spent the majority of the 2024 season at third base. Sherman notes that Shaw is joined by 2024 first-round Cam Smith and incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes are “attractive” to the Astros as they run the risk of losing longtime third baseman Alex Bregman in free agency. While not noted in Sherman’s report, it’s also worth noting that Chicago has a number of young pitchers who they could theoretically make available including Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski.

As for the other teams mentioned in Sherman’s report, both clubs have at least theoretical fits for Houston’s reported ask as well. The Giants have former top prospect Marco Luciano and power-hitting utility man Tyler Fitzgerald as pieces who may be attractive to the Astros as third base options, while right-handers Hayden Birdsong and Mason Black are among the club’s more interesting young pitchers who could be made available. It’s unclear whether any of those names have been discussed or to what level Houston would be interested in them, but San Francisco sports a deep group of young options in both areas. The infielders figure to be particularly available following the club landing Willy Adames in free agency, and the same could be said of the rotation pieces if they’re successful in their reported pursuit of Corbin Burnes.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are known to be making third Alec Bohm available in trade but may be an imperfect fit for the Astros needs. The infielder has just two years of team control remaining, and two years of a solid but unspectacular third baseman seems unlikely to land one year of a star player like Tucker. It’s possible the Phillies could supplement a package including Bohm with starting pitching, but it would be a shock if the club was willing to part ways with top prospect Andrew Painter and other options like Mick Abel and Seth Johnson are likely far less inspiring to the Astros.

Luis Gil Wins American League Rookie Of The Year

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Yankees right-hander Luis Gil has been named the American League Rookie of the Year, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Colton Cowser of the Orioles finished second while Gil’s teammate Austin Wells finished third.

Gil, 26, made his big league debut back in 2021 despite what his eligibility for this award might imply. The right-hander made seven starts in the majors between the 2021 and ’22 seasons, pitching to a 3.78 ERA in those 33 1/3 innings of work. Unfortunately for Gil, the start of his career was derailed in early 2022 by Tommy John surgery, and he did not return to a professional mound until the tail end of the minor league season in 2023. Given his long layoff and the fact that the Yankees entered Spring Training with a solid on-paper rotation of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes, and Clarke Schmidt, it at first seemed all but certain that the 26-year-old would see his return to the majors further delayed as he began the season in the minors to wait for a big league opportunity.

That opportunity came earlier than anyone expected, however, as Cole missed the entire first half after being diagnosed with a nerve issue in his throwing elbow. That opened the door for Gil to make the Opening Day roster as the club’s fifth starter, and he proceeded to dominate in the early months of the season. In his first twelve starts of the year, Gil delivered a sensational 1.82 ERA with a 31.5% strikeout rate and a 2.98 FIP across 69 1/3 innings of work. That dominant performance was more than enough to earn him a rotation spot even after Cole returned to the rotation, and while Gil’s performance was far more uneven for the remainder of the season he still entered the month of August with a solid 3.20 ERA and 3.58 FIP across 21 starts.

August proved to be a bumpy month for Gil this season, as he made just three abbreviated starts before ultimately winding up on the injured list due to a back strain. That injury may have contributed to his rough finish to the year, as Gil posted a lackluster 4.38 ERA and 5.76 FIP in eight starts between August and September. Of course, it’s hardly a shock that Gil seemed to lose steam late in the year between his long layoff and the fact that his 151 2/3 innings of work were by far a career high. Overall, his final numbers were solid thanks to his otherworldly start to the year, with a 3.50 ERA (117 ERA+) and 4.14 FIP in 29 starts.

The Yankees will not receive a Prospective Promotion Incentive draft pick as a result of Gil’s win, as the right-hander did not appear on the requisite number of top-100 prospect lists in order to qualify for the PPI. That’s not the case for the second place Cowser, who would have earned the Orioles their second consecutive PPI pick and Rookie of the Year win had he won the award. The 24-year-old outfielder turned in an impressive season of his own this year, slashing .242/.321/.447 (120 wRC+) with 24 homers in 153 games while splitting time between left and center field for Baltimore. That impressive showing nearly took home the award, as Cowser received 13 first place votes to Gil’s 15 and actually appeared on 27 ballots as opposed to 26 for Gil.

That split voting continued down the ballot, as Wells finished in third place despite both Athletics closer Mason Miller and Guardians reliever Cade Smith receiving a first place vote a piece while Wells himself did not receive any first place votes. Miller and Smith finished fourth and fifth for the award, respectively, while Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu and Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford finished in sixth and seventh place with a handful of down ballot votes a piece.

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