Luis Castillo

NL Central Notes: Matz, Perez, Pirates, Reds Deadline

By Mark Polishuk | August 25, 2022 at 9:24am CDT

Steven Matz suffered a torn left MCL in late July, leading to fear that the left-hander’s season would possibly be over, even if surgery wasn’t required. However, Matz is now making increased progress towards a return, with Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol telling reporters (including MLB.com’s John Denton) that Matz’s knee was pain-free while fielding some grounders on Wednesday. Matz also threw 30 pitches off the mound during the warm-up session. It could mean that Matz is nearing a minor league rehab assignment, though the Cardinals will continue to closely monitor his status considering his lack of workload.

Matz has pitched just once since May 22, as a shoulder impingement kept him on the injured list for almost two months, and he then suffered his MCL injury in his first start back off the IL. St. Louis has Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and trade deadline acquisitions Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana all thriving in the rotation, so if Matz is able to return, he could be used in a bullpen role or competing with Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford, or another rehabbing starter in Jack Flaherty for that final spot in the rotation. The Cardinals could potentially also explore using a six-man rotation down the stretch, or perhaps just give some of their regulars some rest if the Cards can clinch the NL Central title relatively early. With a 17-5 record thus far in August, the Cards have opened up a 5.5-game lead over the struggling Brewers in the division race.

Some other items from around the Central…

Roberto Perez believes “there’s interest from both parties” in a new deal between the Pirates and the veteran catcher, Perez told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). Perez inked a one-year, $5MMM free agent contract with the Pirates last winter, but played in only 21 games before undergoing season-ending surgery on his left hamstring. The catcher confirmed that his season is indeed over, as he had been hoping to make enough rehab progress to return for the final few games of the schedule. Re-signing Perez would add a seasoned backstop to a Pittsburgh catching mix that doesn’t include a lot of big league experience, though the Bucs are hoping that if all goes well, former first overall pick Henry Davis might be able to make his MLB debut before the 2023 season is up.
The Reds dealt away Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Brandon Drury at the trade deadline, in a flurry of rebuilding moves that added a lot of depth and quality to Cincinnati’s farm system. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer explores the front office’s approach to the deadline, which first included some last-minute contract extension talks with Castillo and Drury’s representatives. When those talks didn’t result in much progress, the Reds shifted focus to the trade market, with GM Nick Krall noting that the interest in Castillo allowed them to make high initial asks. If other clubs weren’t open to that first ask, “then we can just move on….It was a pretty good way to trim the number (of teams) down from the very beginning,” Krall said. Cincinnati had always targeted Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo when speaking with the Mariners, and both of those highly-regarded infield prospects ended up included in the package the Reds received for Castillo. The Reds also had several offers on the table for Mahle and Drury, with the front office ultimately deciding that the offers from the Twins (for Mahle) and Padres (for Drury) were the best of the group.

Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Search

By Mark Polishuk | July 31, 2022 at 1:44pm CDT

The Phillies are looking to add a front-of-the-rotation type of arm, with The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter links) writing that the Phils want “a starter who can start a playoff game.” To this end, the club has been linked to such arms as the Reds’ Tyler Mahle, the Angels’ Noah Syndergaard, and the Pirates’ Jose Quintana — three of the most prominent starting pitchers remaining on the trade market.

Mahle is controlled through the 2023 season, while Syndergaard and Quintana would be pure rentals as players who are scheduled for free agency this winter. As such, Mahle would surely cost the most in a trade, and Syndergaard carries a bit of a financial hit, with roughly $7.2MM still owed to him over the remainder of the season. By contrast, Quintana is owed only around $675K for the rest of 2022, but Quintana also has a shaky track record over the last few seasons before righting himself this year in Pittsburgh.

Dave Dombrowski, Philadelphia’s president of baseball operations, suggested earlier this week that his team was hoping to bolster the rotation, but the Phils were also hesitant about dealing any of their top prospects. Stark backs up that assertion, noting that the Phillies haven’t been willing to move any of Mick Abel, Andrew Painter or Logan O’Hoppe (the Phils’ consensus top-three prospects in the view of Baseball America and MLB Pipeline), or right-handed pitching propects Griff McGarry or Ben Brown. BA ranks McGarry fourth and Brown seventh in their ranking of Phillies prospects, while Pipeline is a little less bullish, ranking McGarry eighth and Brown 26th.

Since the Phillies’ system isn’t considered to be too deep overall, it isn’t any surprise that the front office isn’t keen on parting ways with any of the relatively few premium names on hand in the minors. However, as Stark observes, the Phils will find it difficult to obtain higher-tier pitching unless they’re open to trading prospects. Given the amount of interest Mahle has received from around the league, and given what the Reds just obtained from the Mariners in the Luis Castillo deal, it would seem almost impossible for the Phillies to land Mahle without at least one of the blue-chip prospects.

Syndergaard and Quintana would come at a lower price tag as rental players, but Stark notes that Dombrowski also prefers controllable starters. This was Philadelphia’s strategy in landing Kyle Gibson from the Rangers at last year’s deadline, and landing a starter who is controlled through at least 2023 would give the Phillies some cover since Gibson and Zach Eflin could both be free agents this winter.

The rotation seems to be Philadelphia’s top priority at this point, as Stark says that the Phillies aren’t focused on any bullpen moves for the moment. This is a little surprising given the Phils’ longstanding needs in the relief corps, but it could be that Dombrowski is first exploring his options with the starter market before turning to the (relatively) easier route of adding relievers. Also, virtually every contender in baseball is looking for relievers right now, so Dombrowski could be opting to make some late strikes after the first wave or two of bullpen trades have been made.

Latest On Frankie Montas

By Steve Adams | July 31, 2022 at 12:25pm CDT

TODAY: The Yankees, Cardinals, and Blue Jays seem to be the top suitors for Montas, as Jon Morosi of MLB Network writes that the right-hander’s “market is focused on” these three teams.

JULY 30: With Luis Castillo now on his way to Seattle following last night’s trade to the Mariners, Frankie Montas stands out as perhaps the best and likeliest arm left to be traded before Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline. The majority of teams that held interest in Castillo are involved, to varying extents, in the Montas market, so it’s possible that last night’s deal begins to accelerate the pace of the pitching market overall.

The Yankees, for instance, were known to be Castillo suitors but have now made Montas their top target according to both Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links). The Cardinals, who never seemed likely to be able to land Castillo from a fellow NL Central club, are continuing their pursuit of Montas, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Their pursuit, however, is complicated a bit by simultaneous interest in Nationals superstar Juan Soto; Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes in his latest column that some of the Cardinals prospects the A’s are targeting in return for Montas are also coveted by the Nationals.

Several other clubs were linked to both Montas and Castillo in the past week, including the Twins, Padres and Blue Jays. There are also surely other clubs on the periphery of the market whose presence isn’t publicly known. Both Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News and Rosenthal have indicated, for instance, that the Rangers had engaged with the Reds in talks regarding Castillo. Whether the A’s would seriously entertain sending Montas to a division rival isn’t clear, but it’s telling that Texas is in the market for arms that can be controlled into 2023.

The Athletics’ asking price on Montas was reportedly quite high even before last night’s trade of Castillo potentially upped Oakland’s leverage in talks. In profiling the Cardinals’ current rotation needs, Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote (prior to the Castillo deal) that Oakland is believed to be seeking a pair of top prospects and “potentially a currently rostered player with substantial team control remaining.” It’s a steep ask, to be sure, though not an unrealistic one given Montas’ trade value.

Juan Soto Rumors: Saturday

By Mark Polishuk | July 30, 2022 at 9:27pm CDT

Trade winds are swirling around Juan Soto, as it still isn’t clear if the Nationals will deal the superstar outfielder prior to Tuesday’s 5pm CT trade deadline. The market continues to change on an hourly basis based on other deals, and certainly based on countless private discussions happening between front office executives around baseball, and yet Soto (MLBTR’s top trade candidate of deadline season) looms over everything. Certainly, some clubs will want to explore all possibility of acquiring Soto, yet waiting too long could leave that team empty-handed for other trade options if Soto goes elsewhere.

The Padres are widely seen as one of the top contenders to land Soto, and are apparently open to surrendering the type of huge prospect package it will take to get Washington’s attention. As per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the Padres are “willing to discuss” such names as C.J. Abrams, Robert Hassell III, and Adrian Morejon with the Nationals. All three are or have been staples of top-100 prospect lists for the last few years, though Morejon has “graduated” from most prospect lists due to his MLB experience, and MLB Pipeline also removed Abrams from their list due to his 43 big league games played earlier this season.

Since the Nationals are known to be targeting younger, controllable players either already in the majors or on the cusp of their big league debuts, the Padres’ trio would seem to check those boxes. That said, it is quite likely that the Nats would want even more from the top tier of San Diego’s farm system (or from the active roster) in order to part with Soto, and the Padres could possibly have to up their offer in order to outbid other suitors.

For instance, the Cardinals also have a stockpile of young talent, and have also been mentioned as one of the favorites to land Soto. Dylan Carlson is a name on Washington’s radar, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Nats “are fond of” the outfielder.

Carlson is only 23 and has already made a mark in the Show, delivering above-average production at the plate and strong defense (as both a center fielder and right fielder). The Nationals could be eyeing Carlson as their next outfield cornerstone, as the team would already be fairly certain that he could contribute right away, whereas players like Abrams, Hassell, or Morejon are still unproven at the MLB level.

On paper, the Cardinals would seemingly have the depth to move Carlson as part of a Soto deal, yet that would leave the Cards without a reliable center fielder. Harrison Bader is still on the 10-day injured list due to plantar fasciitis, and a setback will extend his stint for at least another few weeks, manager Oliver Marmol told Goold and other reporters. Bader won’t even be out of a protective right boot for another week or two, so while Carlson has capably filled in up the middle, St. Louis could also have to pivot to landing a center fielder in another deal if Carlson was moved. A makeshift combo of Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman in center, for instance, wouldn’t be an ideal option for a would-be contender.

As mentioned, other trades can drastically change the situation for multiple teams, and it appears as though two other potential Soto suitors are no longer involved. The Rays would’ve been something of an eyebrow-raising team to land Soto, yet the Nationals’ demands were “beyond their tolerance,” Joel Sherman of The New York Post writes. As such, the Rays eschewed the blockbuster route and instead landed David Peralta from the Diamondbacks earlier today. Yesterday’s acquisition of Luis Castillo would also seemingly take the Mariners out of the running for Soto, as Seattle dealt away a sizeable chunk of its prospect capital to obtain Castillo from the Reds.

Mariners Acquire Luis Castillo

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2022 at 10:56pm CDT

The first major starting pitching trade has been made, as the Mariners and Reds announced a deal sending two-time All-Star Luis Castillo to Seattle. In exchange, the Reds bring back four prospects — highly-regarded infielders Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo and right-handers Levi Stoudt and Andrew Moore. Cincinnati has selected the contract of reliever Ryan Hendrix to take Castillo’s roster spot.

Castillo had been perhaps the prize of this year’s rotation market. After missing a few weeks due to shoulder soreness to open the year, Castillo made his season debut in early May and has looked like a bona fide top-of-the-rotation arm. He’s made 14 starts and worked 85 innings, pitching to a 2.86 ERA despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more hitter-friendly parks. Castillo has punched out a quality 25.8% of opposing hitters against a solid 8% walk rate. This season’s 47.1% grounder percentage is down a bit relative to his 2019-21 levels, but it remains a few points better than the league average.

That kind of high-end production is about what we’ve come to expect from Castillo, who has cemented himself as one of the sport’s top arms over the past few seasons. He’s posted an ERA under 4.00 in each of the last four years, carrying a cumulative 3.49 mark in 91 starts since the beginning of the 2019 campaign. That’s 24th among 98 qualified starters over that stretch. His 26.8% strikeout rate ranks 23rd among that group, and he’s 12th with a 14.2% swinging strike percentage (whiffs per pitch). He’s complemented the strikeout stuff with a massive 54.8% ground-ball percentage that ranks among the top ten.

Few pitchers can match Castillo’s combination of whiffs and grounders, and the 29-year-old backs it up with an impressive arsenal. He’s one of the harder throwing starters, averaging just shy of 97 MPH on both his four-seam and sinker. Castillo’s bread-and-butter secondary pitch, his changeup, is among the game’s top offspeed offerings, and he’s gotten strong results on his slider as well.

Castillo will move to the front of a rotation that suddenly looks to be one of the more fearsome in the sport. The M’s signed reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year deal over the winter, and second-year hurler Logan Gilbert has a 2.78 ERA through 21 starts. Rookie George Kirby, who was generally considered among the top handful of pitching prospects entering the season, has a 3.50 ERA through his first 13 big league outings. Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales aren’t high-strikeout arms, but they’re more than capable back-of-the-rotation types.

Seattle will want to keep an eye on the innings totals for Gilbert and Kirby, so there’d have been sense in even adding a stable back-end arm. Instead, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and his staff swung bigger to bolster the 54-46 club they expect to snap the franchise’s two-decade playoff drought. Should they make the postseason, the front office and fanbase alike would no doubt feel strongly about their ability to match opponents’ top three arms with Castillo, Ray and Gilbert.

The deal is about more than just the 2022 season, as Castillo will be arbitration-eligible for a final time this winter. He’s making $7.35MM this year, around $2.75MM of which has yet to be paid out. He’ll earn a decent raise in arbitration but still have a plenty affordable salary — likely around the $12MM range. That’s an obvious bargain for a pitcher of his caliber, making a year and a half of his services incredibly valuable.

That’s reflected in the return, which looks very strong. Marte and Arroyo were the top two prospects in the Seattle system on Baseball America’s most recent top 100, respectively checking in 47th and 48th in the league. Marte, the most well-known of the group, entered the season ranked among the game’s top 15 farmhands in the estimation of each of Keith Law of the Athletic, FanGraphs and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.

A 6’3″ infielder out of the Dominican Republic, Marte is universally projected as a possible plus power hitter capable of racking up 25 or more home runs annually at his peak. He has played exclusively shortstop in the minors, and while evaluators suggest he might eventually grow off that position, he’s expected to stick on the infield as a possible above-average third baseman. He’s spent the year in High-A as a 20-year-old, putting up an impressive .270/.360/.460 line with 15 homers, a strong 10.8% walk rate and a manageable 21.1% strikeout percentage through 389 plate appearances.

Arroyo, 18, was Seattle’s second-round pick in last year’s draft. The Puerto Rico native has already notably elevated his stock in his first full professional season, raking at a .316/.385/.514 clip in Low-A. He’s collected 13 homers and 19 doubles and stolen 21 bases. That kind of offensive performance was unexpected, as the switch-hitter entered the season more well-regarded for his potential plus defense at shortstop than his bat.

Stoudt recently checked in as the M’s #10 prospect, per Baseball America. The 24-year-old righty has struggled at Double-A this year, pitching to a 5.28 ERA across 87 innings. He has a slightly below-average 22% strikeout rate and a tiny 5.9% walk percentage that look more palatable, however. BA writes that he works in the 94-98 MPH range with his fastball and has a solid array of secondary offerings, led by his changeup. The 2019 3rd-round pick will have to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to keep him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s regarded as a possible back-of-the-rotation starter.

Moore, not to be confused with the former Seattle starter of the same name, was a 14th-round pick out of junior college last year. The 22-year-old righty has worked exclusively out of the bullpen in Low-A, posting a 1.95 ERA through 32 1/3 innings with a ridiculous 43.6% strikeout rate. He’s generally facing younger competition and has walked almost 13% of opponents, but BA recently wrote that he features a 95-97 MPH fastball and a swing-and-miss breaking pitch. He’ll add an interesting lower level bullpen arm to the Cincinnati system.

The trade — which marks the second time in four months these two teams have lined up on a blockbuster — will have plenty of repercussions. Seattle’s decision to push in arguably their top two prospects for one of the sport’s best starters reinforces that the M’s view themselves as a legitimate contender in the American League. It also seemingly signifies they’re out of the running for Juan Soto, although there’s still plenty of upper level talent for Dipoto and his group to further bolster the roster over the next three days. Second base looks like a possible target area, as does backup catcher. Castillo, though, figures to be the splash — the impact addition designed to put a team that’s generally strong around the diamond over the top.

As for the Reds, it’s the second (and likely most notable) trade they’ll make this week as they strip down the big league roster in search of future talent. Castillo’s former rotation mate Tyler Mahle could soon join him in being moved for a marquee return (although not likely one as strong as this). Rental hitters like Brandon Drury and Donovan Solano won’t recoup a franchise-altering package, but there’s little reason for them not to join Tyler Naquin and Castillo in changing clubs.

With Castillo off the market, Mahle and A’s hurler Frankie Montas become the top two rotation trade candidates, in addition to a handful of high-impact arms who might be available despite having control windows extending beyond 2023. Teams like the Yankees, Cardinals, Rangers and Twins are known to be in the market for rotation help. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that 12 teams were in contact with the Reds about Castillo and suggests the Yankees’ offer was close to the quality of Seattle’s. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic indicates Texas made a strong push as well. In the end, the Mariners put the best offer on the table, leaving plenty of others to look elsewhere over the next 72 hours.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report Seattle was nearing a deal for Castillo. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times was first to report the prospects going back to Cincinnati.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Starting Pitching Rumors: Cardinals, Castillo, Mariners, AL Central

By Steve Adams | July 29, 2022 at 9:13am CDT

The Cardinals are “intent on upgrading the rotation, not just spackling it,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports in a comprehensive look at the team’s potential deadline trajectories. While past deadline trades have often brought stopgaps options to St. Louis (e.g. Jon Lester and J.A. Happ just last year), the Cardinals could aim a bit higher this time around. Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas and Marlins righty Pablo Lopez are among the starters in whom the Cards have expressed interest, per the report. Goold also lists Angels right-hander Noah Syndergaard as a name of interest, and there are surely others the Cardinals are considering as they look to offset injuries to Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Alex Reyes and Dakota Hudson (who has struggled even when healthy this season).

St. Louis has upwards of $155MM already on the books for the current season, though that number will dip to around $90MM for the 2023 campaign (not including several notable arbitration raises). The Cardinals are still nearly $10MM shy of their record Opening Day payroll ($164MM), and they’ve gone a bit further than that with some midseason acquisitions in recent years, so there should still be payroll space to accommodate players making substantial salaries. They also have one of the game’s deepest farm systems, allowing them to bid competitively for the market’s top arms.

Some more notes on the trade market for starters…

The Mariners are looking for rotation help, and Ken Rosenthal reports in his latest appearance with FOX Sports that Reds ace Luis Castillo “seems to be their main focus and target” at this juncture (Twitter link, with video). Seattle’s top four starters — Logan Gilbert, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen — have made at least 19 starts, and they’ve received good results from top prospect George Kirby since plugging him into the rotation (3.50 ERA through 13 starts). However, Kirby is at 96 innings between the minors and big leagues combined, which is already a notable jump from last year’s total of 67 2/3 innings. Gilbert’s 123 innings effectively match last year’s total of 124 1/3 frames. Beyond that, the Mariners probably can’t expect to avoid any notable injuries on the starting staff all season — few teams can — so there’s good sense in adding another arm to support the group. In Castillo’s case, he’d of course slot right in alongside Gilbert and Ray into a playoff rotation and give the M’s an excellent trio upon which to lean both this season and next.
For all the teams seeking pitching help, however, it’s the trio of AL Central front-runners that are the most aggressive at the moment, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. The Twins, Guardians and White Sox are all looking to bolster their pitching staffs (rotation and/or bullpen help alike). The American League Central is the one division in the sport where there are three legitimate contenders for the division crown at the moment, and both Cleveland and Chicago (who currently trail Minnesota) are within 3.5 games of a Wild Card berth as well. There’s been prior speculation (here included) about the White Sox potentially going another direction, but they’ve been playing some of their best ball of the season this month and have thusly not had any discussions about the possibility of trading away veteran arms like Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets.
As for the Twins, 1500 SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson suggested in yesterday’s podcast that Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle could be the likeliest name to land in Minnesota by Tuesday’s deadline, though the Twins are casting a wide net as they seek both rotation and bullpen help. Minnesota has also spoken to the Marlins about righty Pablo Lopez, Wolfson added.

Latest On Trade Markets For Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | July 27, 2022 at 5:39pm CDT

Reds righty Luis Castillo and A’s righty Frankie Montas are not and never have been teammates, but their trade markets have been near inextricably linked dating back to the offseason. That’s understandable, given the similarities between them. The 29-year-olds are separated by just three months in age, by about $2MM in salary and are both controlled through the end of the 2023 season. Statistically, they’re nearly identical — although Castillo has handled the larger workload in recent years. Both pitch for clubs that were more focused on cutting payroll and stashing prospects than on putting together a 2022 winner. As such, both are obvious trade candidates (and have been since the winter).

The Cardinals, Mariners and Yankees have been the three most aggressive teams on the Montas/Castillo front, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports, with the Twins, Blue Jays and Padres each also in the fold to varying extents. Jon Heyman of the New York Post also hears the Yankees are involved on both hurlers and calls adding a starter “a priority” for New York.

Bolstering the rotation is similarly going to be a key objective for St. Louis. The Cardinals have lost Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz to injury in recent weeks. Flaherty is already on the 60-day injured list and will be out until at least late August due to a shoulder strain. Matz tore the MCL in his left knee over the weekend. John Denton of MLB.com wrote a few days ago that Matz was optimistic about avoiding season-ending surgery, but he’s expected to be sidelined into September even if he can rehab without going under the knife.

The Cardinals also faced a rotation shortage at last summer’s deadline. They addressed that rather modestly, acquiring veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ as strike-throwing stabilizers at the back of the rotation. Robert Murray of FanSided reported last night the front office was looking for a higher-impact hurler than a Lester/Happ type this year, and a pursuit of Castillo and/or Montas certainly aligns with that assessment. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, meanwhile, writes that the Cardinals have explored the market for both impending free agents and starters with multiple remaining seasons of club control.

New York, meanwhile, recently lost Luis Severino to the injured list on account of a lat strain. New York welcomed back Domingo Germán to take his rotation spot, but there’s not a ton of proven healthy depth beyond their top five. The Yankees have also seen righty Jameson Taillon scuffle of late, leaving them scouring the market for additional help. Like the Cardinals, they seem to be casting a wide net. In addition to high-impact hurlers in the Castillo/Montas range, they’ve also been linked to Pittsburgh’s José Quintana, who’d be a lower-cost depth pickup at the back end.

As for the Mariners, they have a range of areas they can add over the next six days. The M’s just wrapped up a sweep of the Rangers to pull to 54-45. They’re ten games back of the Astros in the AL West but in possession of the American League’s second Wild Card spot. They’re three games clear of the Guardians, the non-playoff team with the best record in the league.

With a strong opportunity to snap a playoff drought that has lasted more than two decades, the Mariners are in position to seek impact talent. Seattle entered play Wednesday with the sixth-lowest rotation ERA (3.65) in the majors. They’re middle-of-the-pack from a strikeout/walk perspective, however, with both Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales posting below-average strikeout rates. There are also possible innings concerns for highly-touted rookie George Kirby, who has already tallied 96 frames this season between the minors and big leagues. That’s above the 67 2/3 innings he logged in the upper minors last year, so there’s certainly room for another starter to relieve some of the pressure on Kirby down the stretch and for what the club hopes will be a postseason run.

Twins Rumors: Mahle, Castillo, Marlins, Coulombe, Winder, Catcher

By Steve Adams | July 27, 2022 at 12:43pm CDT

The Twins currently hold a 2.5-game lead in the American League Central, but another poor performance from a pitching staff that has squandered far too many leads this season cost them a win over the Brewers last night. Upgrading the pitching staff will be a priority for the Twins before next Tuesday’s deadline, and to that end, they’ve been in the market on both Reds ace Luis Castillo and Athletics top starter Frankie Montas, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, however, writes that the Twins are more interested in Castillo’s teammate Tyler Mahle than in Castillo himself. Hayes adds that the Twins have been in talks with the Marlins about pitching help. Minnesota and Miami, it should be noted, have had talks regarding potential swaps sending pitching to Minnesota frequently in offseasons past. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, and reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert are a few speculative trade candidates in the Marlins’ bullpen. Generally speaking, the Marlins are deep in pitching options that’ll appeal not only to the Twins but other clubs seeking upgrades.

Whether the preference for Mahle over Castillo — which Hayes also indicated back in the offseason — is a reflection of asking price or of the Twins’ belief that he has the superior raw stuff isn’t clear. But Mahle has flown somewhat under the radar for the past few seasons despite being quite similar, statistically, to both Castillo and Montas since 2020.

It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three.

Broadly speaking, Mahle is much closer to the Montas/Castillo tier of pitcher than most pundits credit him. And, with a $5.2MM salary compared to Castillo’s $7.35MM mark, he’s a bit more affordable than his teammate and right in line with Montas ($5MM). Like that duo, he’s controlled through the 2023 season.

Mahle got out to an awful start in 2022, pitching to a 6.32 ERA through his first ten appearances. However, most of the damage against him came in two brutal outings — eight runs versus the Cubs on May 24 and seven runs against the Dodgers on April 17 — and he’s been excellent over the past two months. Dating back to May 29, Mahle has a 2.81 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 51 1/3 innings. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.48 ERA this season, but marks like xERA (3.30) and FIP (3.78) feel he’s been quite a bit better than that. A minor shoulder strain sent him to the IL earlier this month, but Mahle returned Sunday to fire six quality innings.

Regardless of the specific names they acquire, the Twins seem nearly certain to augment both their rotation and their bullpen in the next six days. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been their only two consistently reliable arms, and their ’pen depth took a further hit yesterday when left-hander Danny Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Twins announced today that Coulombe required season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip, subtracting a quietly useful lefty from the mix.

The 32-year-old Coulombe is a journeyman southpaw who found a home in the Twins organization back in 2020. He only made two appearances with the Twins that season but returned on a minor league deal in 2021 and has been solid overall in the Twins’ relief corps. Dating back to 2020, Coulombe has pitched 49 1/3 innings with aa 2.92 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’ll get big league service time while finishing out the year on the 60-day IL, but he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following that surgery.

Meanwhile, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that promising young righty Josh Winder, one of the Twins’ brightest arms and currently the game’s No. 68 prospect at Baseball America, is being shut due to recurring shoulder discomfort. The Twins are still trying to determine the cause of the issue, but the loss of Winder, who’s already given them 45 1/3 Major League innings (3.77 ERA) is a huge hit to the Twins’ rotation and bullpen depth.

For all the focus on the Twins’ pitching staff, it’s not their only area of need. Catcher Ryan Jeffers’ fractured thumb will sideline him for up to eight weeks, which has pushed Gary Sanchez into a starting catcher role with Minnesota. He’d previously been used more evenly between designated hitter and catcher, but Sanchez will now get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate now. Caleb Hamilton, a 2016 23-round pick who’d never hit much above A-ball prior to this season, is currently serving as his backup.

It’s not terribly surprising, then, that Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North mentions in his latest podcast that the Twins will explore the market for a more veteran backup to Sanchez. Twins fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Willson Contreras riding into town anytime soon, but players like Tucker Barnhart or Pedro Severino jump out as possibly available veteran backups.

Wolfson adds, via Twitter, that outfield prospect Matt Wallner and infield prospect Spencer Steer have been mentioned in trade scenarios the team has had recently — and understandably so. Wallner, the No. 39 overall pick in 2019, recently jumped to Triple-A after posting a .299/.436/.597 batting line (157 wRC+) and 21 homers in 342 plate appearances with the Twins’ Double-A club. Steer, selected just 51 picks after Wallner, is hitting a combined .274/.359/.549 in 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He recently just landed in the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospect ranking. Certainly, neither Wallner nor Steer would be included in a small trade for a backup catcher, but it’s easy to see both being the type of players coveted by teams peddling controllable help in the rotation and bullpen.

NL Notes: Castillo, Moose, Solano, Matz, Longoria, Padres

By Mark Polishuk | July 23, 2022 at 9:45pm CDT

Luis Castillo is drawing loads of attention as the trade deadline nears, and according to Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds’ focus seems to be on getting young talent for Castillo rather than using him as an avenue to cut payroll. The idea of having a rival team take on Mike Moustakas’ contract as part of a Castillo deal hasn’t come up in recent negotiations, Nightengale writes, though the Reds were open to such a concept in other talks last year. However, as Cincinnati has moved some salaries off the books in subsequent deals, payroll cuts no longer seem to be as big a priority.

Castillo isn’t the only trade chip on the roster, as the Reds put “a high asking price” on infielder Donovan Solano in recent talks with an unknown club. Solano has hit an impressive .313/.371/.450 in 89 plate appearances this season, trying to make up for lost time after a hamstring injury delayed his 2022 debut until June 22. Cincinnati inked Solano to a one-year, $4.5MM deal in March, so he would be a pure rental for any club looking to add a versatile infielder and veteran right-handed bat to the mix.

Astros Among Teams With Interest In Luis Castillo

By Anthony Franco | July 15, 2022 at 4:52pm CDT

Luis Castillo is among the league’s highest-profile trade candidates. The hard-throwing righty is having another excellent season, and with a year and a half of remaining club control, he’s a good bet to move from the 34-55 Reds to a contender in the next couple weeks.

Virtually every win-now team figures to inquire on Castillo, who’d upgrade any rotation. The Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Mariners, and Twins have all been linked to tied to the Cincinnati starter in recent weeks. Erik Boland of Newsday (Twitter link) and Sweeny Murti of WFAN (on Twitter) both report the Astros are also in the mix. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that teams like the Mets and Padres, who’d been linked to Castillo early in the process, are likelier to prioritize adding offensive help than an impact starter.

That said, even teams with enviable rotation depth figure to at least kick the tires on Castillo over the coming weeks. Houston’s interest is indicative of that, as they have arguably the best starting pitching outlook in the game. Astros starters rank second in the majors in ERA (3.15) and innings pitched (505), while they’re ninth in strikeout percentage (23.6%). That’s in spite of zero contributions from Lance McCullers Jr., perhaps the team’s top pitcher in 2021, as he’s rehabbed from a forearm issue.

Few teams would be able to comfortably withstand an injury to a pitcher of McCullers’ caliber, but Houston’s rotation has thrived nevertheless. All six of the Astros starters to eclipse 30 innings this season have an ERA of 4.08 or lower. Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez own sub-3.00 marks. Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia are in the mid-3.00s with strong strikeout totals, while Jake Odorizzi (3.38) and José Urquidy (4.08) have solid results despite lacking huge whiff totals.

With McCullers also expected to return at some point after the All-Star Break, the Astros certainly don’t need to add another starter. Castillo’s performance, though, is impressive enough they’ll join virtually every other contender in checking in with Reds’ general manager Nick Krall and his staff. Despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home ballpark, Castillo has a 3.49 ERA with an above-average 26.8% strikeout rate and an elite 55.2% grounder percentage over the past three and a half seasons. That includes a personal-best 2.77 ERA through 13 starts this year. Castillo’s swinging strike and ground-ball numbers are down a touch, but he’s still been better than league average in both regards.

Castillo has been especially excellent of late, pitching at peak form as the August 2 deadline draws nearer. He’s allowed one or fewer runs in each of his past four outings, striking out 33 against nine walks over his last 27 innings. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic examined Castillo’s strong recent run this morning, noting that the right-hander worked with the Cincinnati coaching staff to tweak the grip on his four-seam fastball this year.

In addition to his excellent results, the 29-year-old would be an eminently affordable pickup for acquiring teams. He’s playing this season on a $7.35MM salary, approximately $2.9MM of which will remain to be paid out after the deadline. He should be in line for a decent arbitration raise next winter, but even a 2023 salary in the $12-15MM range would be a strong bargain for a pitcher of his caliber.

Cincinnati is widely expected to field offers on both Castillo and rotation mate Tyler Mahle, who is also in his penultimate year of club control. Andy Martino of SNY reports that talks on at least the former have yet to get underway in much detail, suggesting those discussions figure to accelerate after the upcoming amateur draft. The Reds are sure to set a lofty asking price once discussions begin in earnest. Heyman wrote earlier this week that Cincinnati was looking for one of the Yankees’ top shortstop prospects, Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza, to get Castillo talks underway. Heyman suggested last night that New York remains firmly against parting with either player, even after losing Luis Severino to the injured list due to a lat strain.

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