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Luis Arraez

Padres Looking To Add Another Hitter

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The Padres were dormant for much of the offseason but sprang to life recently. In the past week, they’ve bolstered the pitching staff with Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart, as well as bringing Jason Heyward and Connor Joe into the position player mix. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that they would still like to add one more bat, either via trade or free agency.

The Friars lost several hitters to free agency at the end of the 2024 season, with each of Kyle Higashioka, Ha-Seong Kim, Jurickson Profar, Donovan Solano and David Peralta hitting the open market. Kim was the primary shortstop last year and Profar the left fielder. Higashioka took over the catching job during the season. Solano and Peralta each became key part-time players, with the former getting into 96 games and the latter 91.

With seemingly almost no payroll space to work with this winter, the club has had to look for low-cost solutions to fill those holes. Heyward and Joe each got very modest $1MM guarantees and are likely to form a platoon in left, replacing Profar. Elias Díaz was signed a couple of weeks ago to help the catching group, with a $3.5MM guarantee that’s broken up into a $1.5MM salary and $2MM buyout on a mutual option, with that buyout not to be paid until after the season.

At shortstop, the solution was already on the roster. Xander Bogaerts had moved from short to second early in 2024 in deference to Kim, but he moved back to short late in the year when Kim hurt his shoulder. He’ll now stick at short in 2025. That will allow Jake Cronenworth to move from first to second and Luis Arráez, who got a lot of starts as the designated hitter in the second half of 2024, to be the regular first baseman. Manny Machado will be back as the regular third baseman.

Arráez isn’t an amazing defender at first, which raises the possibility of him being a regular designated hitter this year, but it seems the club isn’t viewing it that way. “Our infielder guys — with Louie, Croney, Bogey, Manny — they’re everyday guys,” manager Mike Shildt said, per Acee. “All those guys will have an opportunity to take a DH. But I don’t view Louie and Croney being like some rotation of DH. I think they’re everyday guys that’ll be on the field. Will they get opportunities to get off their feet and DH and create other opportunities to get guys on the field? Yes. But I don’t see that being anything other than those guys are everyday guys, and we expect them to go out and play really good defense and help us win games.”

With that arrangement, and Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill in the other two outfield spots, there’s no obvious designated hitter. Guys like Tirso Ornelas, Eguy Rosario and Brandon Lockridge are on the roster but fairly lacking in experience. Oscar González, Gavin Sheets, Trenton Brooks and others are in camp as non-roster invitees but they each have their flaws, which is why they had to settle for minor league deals.

In terms of the roster, it’s easy to see the Padres fitting another bat in there, pushing those depth options to the bench of Triple-A. Presumably, any addition will be made on a tight budget, like all of their other moves this winter. As mentioned, Heyward, Joe and Díaz were cheap, with the Díaz deal even being semi-backloaded via that option buyout. The same was true of their pitching additions. Hart gets a $1MM salary this year and a $500K buyout. Though Pivetta got $55MM over four years, he’ll only get a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary in 2025. Even Michael King’s $7.75MM guarantee to avoid arbitration was broken into a $3MM signing bonus, $1MM salary and $3.75MM buyout on a mutual option.

The free agent market does still feature some bats, with Justin Turner and J.D. Martinez the most notable. Turner got a $13MM deal last offseason but is now 40 years old. Since he’s unsigned in mid-February, perhaps he’s not getting offers at that level again for 2025, despite a solid performance last year. Martinez got $12MM from the Mets last winter but with heavy deferrals and a salary of just $4.5MM. Peralta, who joined the Padres via a minor league deal in May last year, is still out there and won’t cost much. Mark Canha, Yuli Gurriel, Miguel Sanó, Anthony Rizzo, Rowdy Tellez and others are also on the market with limited earning power.

On the trade market, Spencer Torkelson doesn’t have an amazing path to playing time in Detroit and is still in his pre-arbitration years. LaMonte Wade Jr. is only making $5MM this year and could perhaps be pried away from the Giants, though the intra-divisional trade is always tougher to pull off. Starling Marte is going to make $19.5MM this year but the Mets are reportedly willing to pay down his salary in order to facilitate a deal.

Padres Have “Entertained” Interest In Robert Suarez

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As the Padres look to retool their roster ahead of the 2025 season, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club has entertained trade interest in both players that could reach free agency next winter and players under longer-term team control. In particular, Lin notes that the club has received interest in right-handers Dylan Cease and Robert Suarez as well as infielders Luis Arráez and Jake Cronenworth. It’s unclear whether or not the club is engaged in active negotiations regarding any of those players as things stand.

Cease and Arraez have both seen their names in the rumor mill frequently this winter, but Suarez and Cronenworth have been far less frequently discussed to this point. In fact, Lin himself suggested in early December that the Padres were inclined to keep Suarez at that point in the offseason. That the club has subsequently begun to entertain interest in the closer’s services is certainly worth noting. At the time, Lin relayed that Suarez’s trade value was complicated by the presence of an opt-out clause in his contract that would allow him to head to free agency after the 2025 season rather than receive $8MM salaries in 2026 and ’27.

Perhaps as the relief market has begun to develop, rival clubs have changed their evaluation of Suarez. With righty Jeff Hoffman landing a $33MM deal with the Blue Jays, veteran set-up man Andrew Kittredge securing a $10MM guarantee from the Orioles, and some reports suggesting closer Tanner Scott could land an AAV in the $20MM range this winter, it’s certainly feasible that the possibility of being on the hook for $26MM over three years if Suarez opts in has become more palatable. After all, Suarez’s 2.77 ERA in 65 innings as the Padres closer positions him as one of the better relief arms in the game and compares quite well with Kittredge in particular. With that being said, it’s also possible that the Padres have become more motivated to clear salary as the offseason has continued and are open to dealing Suarez even if the return is lighter than they would have accepted a month ago.

As for Cronenworth, it’s somewhat difficult to imagine the club getting a meaningful return for his services beyond salary relief. He was a perfectly serviceable infield option for San Diego in 2024, hitting a roughly league average .241/.324/.390 in 656 trips to the plate while splitting time between first and second base. That was enough to make Cronenworth roughly a two-win player according to both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference last year, a notable step up from 2023 but still well below the numbers he posted during his back-to-back All-Star campaigns in 2021 and 2022. With just over $72.7MM left on Cronenworth’s contract to be paid out over his age 31 to 36 seasons, the versatile infielder seems unlikely to be moved without the Padres eating significant salary or taking on another bad contract in return.

Interestingly, Lin suggests that the Padres would prefer to keep “at least” Arraez in the fold for 2025 out of those four names. That’s something of a surprise given Arraez’s hefty $14MM salary in his final year under team control and the fact that replacing him at first base could surely be done for much cheaper, thereby opening up payroll space to upgrade other areas. Even Lin acknowledges that Arraez’s pricey final year under contract could be an obstacle for San Diego as they look to retool their roster. With that being said, it’s possible that the market for Arraez hasn’t been especially robust. Few teams have been directly connected to the infielder this winter, and one rumored suitor was seemingly taken off the table when reports pushed back on the idea that the Yankees could have interest in acquiring Arraez to play second base for them in 2025.

However the club ultimately decides to go about moving salary, it seems all but certain they’ll need to make a trade or two before the season begins. RosterResource projects the club for a luxury tax payroll of just under $243MM in 2025, putting them about $2MM over the first threshold, with an actual payroll of just over $208MM. The club surely wants to duck under that first luxury tax threshold this winter, and previous reports have indicated that they want their final payroll to clock in below its current level while not necessarily dropping all the way back down to last year’s $169MM payroll. With clear needs in the outfield and rotation, it’s hard to imagine the Padres achieving all of their offseason objectives without moving at least one player due a significant salary in 2025, if not more.

Latest On Luis Arraez’s Trade Market

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The Padres and infielder Luis Arráez avoided arbitration earlier today by agreeing to a $14MM salary for the 2025 season, his final before he reaches free agency next offseason. Even after agreeing to a contract, however, there’s no guarantee that Arraez will be San Diego come Opening Day. The club is reportedly angling to lower its payroll to something closer to 2024’s $169MM figure. With outstanding needs in the outfield and rotation that have yet to be addressed, trading a pricey arbitration-level player like Arraez or Dylan Cease seems like it may be the best avenue for the club to simultaneously lower its payroll and add talent to remain competitive in the NL West this season.

That’s led the Padres to at least consider parting ways with Arraez this winter, and there have been some conflicting reports about potential interest from the Yankees regarding Arraez’s services. The club is in need of infield help after losing Gleyber Torres in free agency, and Arraez’s history as a second baseman makes him something of a plausible option. With that being said however, Andy Martino of SNY is the latest voice to cast doubt on the fit between Arraez and the Yankees. While Martino acknowledges that the club had some discussions back in November that involved Arraez, he adds that similarly brief conversations were held regarding fellow Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth along with a number of other players, and that the Yankees are not expected to pursue Arraez at this point in the winter.

That may not completely shut the door on Arraez winding up in the Big Apple, however. Martino suggests that while the Mets have not engaged with the Padres in “substantive” talks regarding Arraez to this point, they’re in the market for a veteran infielder and he could come into play for the club in the event that slugging first baseman Pete Alonso signs elsewhere. In that case, Arraez would provide the Mets with a short-term solution at first along with the ability to back up second and third base in a pinch. That would leave the door open for New York to reevaluate its needs next winter in a free agent class that figures to be headlined by star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. barring an extension with the Blue Jays. Paul Goldschmidt, Ryan O’Hearn, and Josh Naylor are among the other noteworthy names that figure to be available in next year’s first base class.

When it comes to their hole at first base, the club seems to be clearly focused on bringing Alonso back into the fold despite a number of recent reports have suggested that there remains a gap between the two sides in terms of years. It’s difficult to imagine the Mets going in another direction until Alonso’s market develops further, but it’s worth noting that the same surely could have been said about third baseman Alex Bregman and the Astros in the weeks prior to the club adding Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker to box him out of the club’s infield mix.

Should the Mets wind up searching for other options themselves, Arraez figures to be one of a number of backup options at their disposal in the event that Alonso ultimately signs elsewhere. There’s been some rumors that the club could consider Bregman as a backup to Alonso, which would kick incumbent third baseman Mark Vientos over to first. More direct first base options available in free agency or on the trade market include Justin Turner, LaMonte Wade Jr. or perhaps even Red Sox youngster Triston Casas, though none of those players have been directly connected to the Mets at this point.

Padres, Luis Arraez Avoid Arbitration

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The Padres have avoided arbitration with three-time batting champion Luis Arraez, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Arraez will earn $14MM in 2025, his final year of arbitration eligibility. A $14MM payday represents a nice raise for the infielder, who made $10.6MM in 2024, though it’s slightly less than his projected $14.6MM salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

The Padres acquired Arraez in a trade with the Marlins last May. Although he represented San Diego at the All-Star Game this past summer and finished the season with an NL-best .314 batting average, the 2024 season was a down year for Arraez. His .739 OPS and 109 wRC+ were well below his .829 OPS and 130 wRC+ from 2022-23. In addition, his defensive numbers were worse than ever. He managed to accrue -3 DRS and -6 OAA at first base and -3 DRS and -7 OAA and second base. Thus, the Padres ended up using him as their DH a good amount of the time, which only further decreased his overall value.

If Arraez can shore up his defense and get back to hitting like he did in 2022 and ’23, he will still be a bargain for San Diego at a $14MM salary. However, the Padres are thought to be trying to cut payroll this winter. According to RosterResource, their projected payroll for the 2025 season is $39MM higher than their final payroll at the end of 2024. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller is reportedly trying to bring the payroll down to somewhere in between its current projected figure and last year’s final tally. If Preller plans to reduce payroll and still make any additions this winter, he will almost certainly have to trade some of his more expensive veterans. Thus, Arraez’s name has popped up in trade rumors.

About a month ago, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that the Padres had engaged in internal discussions about trading Arraez. It’s not hard to see why. His contract is more tradeable than the longer-term deals belonging to Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts,  Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, Joe Musgrove, or Yu Darvish. Dylan Cease surely has more trade value than Arraez, but for the same reasons, the Padres might be more likely to want to keep him around. Cease is projected to earn $13.7MM in arbitration, a similar number to Arraez’s $14MM salary. So, trading Cease would free up a similar amount of payroll as trading Arraez, but it would mean giving up a far more productive player.

Yet, the only team to be formally linked to Arraez this winter is the Yankees, and it’s unclear how interested New York really is. ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote that the Yankees have “continued to discuss” Arraez with the Padres, but the New York Post’s Jon Heyman and SNY’s Andy Martino have pushed back on that connection. Martino reports that the Yankees “briefly” checked in on Arraez in November and “have not engaged with the Padres” on the subject since.

To further complicate matters, Bob Nightengale of USA Today is now reporting that the Padres “plan to keep” Arraez after all. That’s somewhat surprising if the team is still serious about trimming payroll, but perhaps the Padres decided teams around the league were undervaluing Arraez after his down year in 2024. That might be the right decision. After all, if he can get back to being the hitter he was from 2022-23, the Padres would have a hard time replacing that kind of production for less than $14MM.

Latest On Yankees’ Infield

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6:39pm: Jon Heyman of the New York Post pushes back against the Arraez fit, reporting that the Yankees don’t see him as a fit for the moment. Lux, meanwhile, is being traded to Cincinnati.

1:03pm: The Yankees have already had a busy offseason but aren’t done yet. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that they have had discussions with the Padres about Luis Arráez and the Dodgers about Gavin Lux, with either a possibility to take over the second base job in the Bronx. Jon Morosi of MLB Network says the Mariners, who are known to be looking for infield upgrades, have checked in on Lux as well.

For the Yanks, their infield took a couple of hits at the end of the 2024 season, with Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres both hitting free agency, leaving holes at first and second base. They have since taken care of first by signing Paul Goldschmidt, but another infield upgrade would make sense.

The versatility of Jazz Chisholm Jr. gives them some flexibility. He largely played third base after being acquired last year but has plenty of experience at the keystone, meaning the Yanks could add either a second or third basemen, with Chisholm taking over whichever position is not addressed. They’ve been connected to free agent Alex Bregman and trade candidate Nolan Arenado as potential third base additions but appear to be exploring second base candidates as well.

Arráez is a logical trade candidate from San Diego’s perspective and something they have reportedly considered. RosterResource currently projects the Padres for a $210MM payroll this year, well beyond last year’s $169MM figure. While a payroll bump is reportedly possible, it’s been suggested they need to get their 2025 spending closer to 2024 levels. They are also projected to be just above the competitive balance tax and likely want to dip below that if they are going to be cutting payroll.

However, many of their players are difficult to move for contractual reasons. Many have no-trade clauses or hefty remaining guarantees or both. They also have a number of spots on the roster that could use upgrades.

Last winter, a similar set of circumstances led to the Friars parting ways with Juan Soto and Trent Grisham, sending them to the Yankees. The five players they received in return allowed them to shore up their depth in different areas while also offloading notable salary commitments.

Arráez, 28 in April could perhaps follow the same path this year. Like Soto last offseason, he is currently one year away from free agency and set to make a notable salary in his final season of club control. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez to earn $14.6MM in 2025. That’s about half of what Soto was set to earn in 2024 but still a notable chunk of change for a team with budgetary constraints.

Though the projected salary is significantly lower, Arráez will still have far less appeal as a trade candidate than Soto did. Despite his elite bat-to-ball skills, Arráez is a limited player. He doesn’t take walks or add much power and is also not an asset defensively. Despite three straight batting titles, his .323/.372/.418 career batting line adds up to a wRC+ of 120, indicating his overall offensive contributions have been about 20% above average. Soto, on the other hand, has a .285/.421/.532 line and 158 wRC+ in his career.

The aforementioned defensive limitations are also something the Yankees will have to consider with Arráez. The Twins started using him more at first base in 2022 before trading him to the Marlins. With the Fish in 2023, Arráez got his largest sample of work at second and produced four Defensive Runs Saved but also -11 Outs Above Average. The Padres acquired him early in the 2024 season and only put him at the keystone for 58 innings the rest of the way.

The Yankees would have to weigh his defensive limitations against the attraction of putting his bat into the lineup, while also factoring in the money. RosterResource projects their competitive balance tax number at $303MM for this year, which is already above the fourth and final tier. As a third-time payor at that level, the Yanks face a 110% tax on any additional spending and would therefore have to pay about $30MM to employ Arráez this year. Of course, the Padres would also want something in return, though the cost savings might be their top priority at the moment.

As for Lux, it’s unclear if the 27-year-old is even available but it’s understandable why the Yanks would pick up the phone and check, as the Dodgers seem to be overloaded with middle infield options. They are planning to have Mookie Betts act as their everyday shortstop and committed themselves to that path by signing Teoscar Hernández and Michael Conforto to fill their corner outfield jobs, with guys like Andy Pages and Dalton Rushing also in the mix.

With Tommy Edman seemingly ticketed for the center field job, that leaves them with Betts at short and Lux at second, with Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor around as bench/utility guys. They added even further depth by signing Hyeseong Kim a few days ago. Reportedly, the club still plans to use Betts and Lux as their primarily middle infielders, but perhaps the Kim signing increases the chances of the Yankees prying Lux loose.

If they succeeded, they would be getting something of an unknown quantity. Lux has had an up-and-down career thus far, but with some encouraging up arrows. Through the end of the 2021 season, he had a tepid batting line of .233/.314/.368, which led to an 86 wRC+. He took a noticeable step forward in 2022, slashing .276/.346/.399 for a 113 wRC+, but then missed all of 2023 due to a torn ACL.

His 2024 season was a step back, in a sense, though he finished strong. He hit .251/.320/.383 for a wRC+ of 100 on the season overall but with a dismal .213/.267/.295 line in the first half and a robust .304/.390/.508 showing in the second, leading to respective wRC+ marks of 60 and 152 in those halves. His batting average on balls in play jumped over 100 points from the first half to the second, so it might not be entirely sustainable, but he also improved in terms of the quality of his batted balls. Defensively, the reviews are mixed. Both DRS and OAA gave Lux a negative grade at second base in 2024 but both have him in positive territory for his career overall.

Financially, Lux is more attractive than Arráez. Thanks to an inconsistent career and missing an entire season, Lux is projected to make just $2.7MM next year, with an extra year of club control beyond that as well. Given the Yankees’ CBT situation, that would be far more attractive, but it’s also valuable to the Dodgers for the same reason. Since the Dodgers don’t seem especially motivated to let go of Lux, the Yankees would have to send something of real value the other way.

For the Mariners, their infield needs are well known. They lost Justin Turner to free agency, turned down an option for Jorge Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. Apart from shortstop J.P. Crawford, little is settled on the dirt in Seattle. They have some internal options, such as Luke Raley for first base. He would need a right-handed platoon partner, which could come in the form of bringing back Turner. At second, they reportedly have some willingness to ride with Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss until prospect Cole Young is ready to take over.

That has made it seem more likely that the club would add at third base, though bringing in a second baseman is still a consideration. The M’s were connected to Cubs’ second baseman Nico Hoerner earlier this winter, for instance, and are seemingly open to Lux as well. Lux does have some third base experience, but only six innings in the majors, so he would be a far more logical solution at the keystone.

His low projected salary is surely appealing to the Mariners, though for different reasons than the Yankees. Seattle reportedly has about $15MM to play with this offseason, a tight enough budget that Luis Castillo rumors have been swirling for quite a while. A Castillo trade would weaken the rotation but would open up some more spending capacity, perhaps to go after a player like Bregman or Arenado, though trading for Lux might be a more straightforward solution. That would allow the M’s to keep their strong rotation intact, though they would perhaps have to give the Dodgers some notable prospect capital in order to move Lux up the coast.

Padres Have Considered Luis Arráez Trade

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The Padres seem to have a budget crunch and are considering all kinds of options for how to stop feeling the squeeze. It was reported this week that they have been exploring the possibility of trading right-hander Dylan Cease and now Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that they have discussed trading infielder Luis Arráez. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they have received inquires on Cease, Arráez and Xander Bogaerts as well.

It was reported this week that the club was probably going to have to drop its payroll commitments. They had a $169MM payroll in 2024 but RosterResource currently projects them to be at $210MM next year. It’s not known exactly where they need to wind up, but it should be somewhere in between those two numbers. Acee’s report from today suggests that Preller can be above $169MM but not by much. Trading prospects doesn’t seem to be a strong consideration since the club has done a lot of that in recent years. The farm is still highlighted by Leodalis De Vries and Ethan Salas but all reports have suggested those two are fairly untouchable.

That’s a tricky situation since the Friars need to upgrade at catcher, in an outfield corner and in the rotation. Doing so while also cutting spending is a difficult tightrope to walk. It’s a similar situation to last winter, when the Padres also had to scale back the budget but had notable concerns about the pitching depth and outfield.

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller somehow made it work by trading Juan Soto to the Yankees for a pile of pitchers, including Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with the latter then used to acquire Cease. They also moved shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill to center field, skipping him over Triple-A, and struck gold by signing Jurickson Profar for just $1MM. They ended up having a good season and getting back into the playoffs but now face another tough balancing act.

Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are all making big money but those contracts are hard to move, both because the players are key parts of the roster and each has a full no-trade clause. Cease and Arráez, however, have no such protection and both are controlled for just one more season via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year and Cease for $13.7MM.

That amount of money is perhaps a sweet spot. The players should have surplus value, meaning they would generate interest from other clubs, but the numbers are also big enough where a trade would reduce San Diego’s payroll by a notable amount.

It will be a delicate line for Preller to walk, especially with Cease. The rotation is already thin as it is, with Musgrove slated to miss most or all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. There’s a strong front three of Cease, King and Darvish but question marks after that. Moving Cease could save some money and bring back a return of some kind, but it would make the rotation depth even thinner. Getting Roki Sasaki would be ideal since he’s very good and will be limited to a small signing bonus, but there’s no guarantees there and it will be another month before there’s clarity on the situation.

One thing that could help is converting a reliever to a full-time starting role, as they did with King last year and Seth Lugo before. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com relays that Preller has identified Adrián Morejón, Bryan Hoeing and Stephen Kolek as candidates for such a move.

MLBTR looked into the possibility of stretching out Morejón in October, though MLBTR readers were fairly split on the idea, with a slight majority favoring him staying in the bullpen. The argument for stretching him out is that he was once a highly-regarded starting pitching prospect before getting derailed by injuries. In 2024, he was healthy enough to avoid the IL all year, tossing 63 2/3 innings out of the bullpen with a 2.83 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.4% ground ball rate. The Padres could just keep him in that role since it worked for him but they could also view that healthy season as a springboard to a larger workload in 2025.

Neither Hoeing nor Kolek had the same prospect pedigree as Morejón but both have largely worked in relief after coming up as starters in the minors. Hoeing tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2024 with a 2.18 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 48.3% ground ball rate. Kolek tossed 46 2/3 innings with a 5.21 ERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 55.9% ground ball rate.

Any of the three would be far cheaper than Cease. Hoeing and Kolek are still in their pre-arbitration years. Morejón’s injuries have limited him to modest $1.8MM projection for next year even though he has more than four years of service time. That price point is attractive but there’s obviously big risk in flipping an established starter like Cease and hoping for these guys to slot in for him.

With Arráez, it’s a bit easier to see the logic. Without him, the club could have an infield of Machado, Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth from left to right. Finding a passable first baseman for less than what Arráez is slated to make is more plausible than replacing Cease with a pitcher of similar quality. They could flip Arráez for whatever clubs are willing to offer in return, then theoretically sign someone like Donovan Solano, Carlos Santana or Justin Turner for less money.

But on the other hand, the teams interested in Arráez could also look to those options as reasons to not give up much in trade. Despite winning three straight batting titles, Arráez is a fairly limited player since he’s not a strong defender, doesn’t walk much and doesn’t provide power. He’s certainly useful but Acee suggests Cease is more likely to move because the prices on starting pitching have been aggressive this winter, meaning he would have more interest than Arráez despite having essentially the same projected salary.

The Bogaerts possibility in interesting but the least likely of the three to come together. As mentioned, he has a full no-trade clause and would have to approve any deal. He’s also set to make $25MM annually for another nine years, leaving $225MM left on his deal. Heyman suggests that the strong spending this winter makes the deal look more attractive than before, but that’s still an underwater deal.

Bogaerts is three years older than Willy Adames, who just got a guarantee of $182MM from the Giants. He’s also coming off a down year in which he missed time due to injury and slashed .264/.307/.381 for a 95 wRC+. His shortstop defense has also been questionable enough that the Padres moved him to second base in deference to Ha-Seong Kim, though he did retake the position late in the year when Kim was hurt. Even if the Padres found a taker for Bogaerts, it would create a shortstop vacancy and add another item to the to-do list. Re-signing Kim is theoretically possible but he’s still recovering from shoulder surgery and might not be a factor in the first half of the season. The free agent market doesn’t have any more clear-cut everyday options.

Speculatively speaking, it’s a bit easier to see this kind of thing with Cronenworth, who had been in trade rumors in the past. Going into 2023, he and the Padres agreed to a seven-year, $80MM extension for the 2024-30 seasons. He then had a down year in 2023 and the Friars looked into moving him during last winter’s budget crunch but didn’t get anything done. He bounced back with a .241/.324/.390 showing in 2024 for a 105 wRC+, much better than his .229/.312/.378 line and 91 wRC+ in 2023.

He is still owed $71MM over the next six years but that’s less than a third of the money left on the Bogaerts deal. Cronenworth is also a bit younger, turning 31 in January. Trading him would open a hole at second base for the Friars, unless they are willing to play Arráez there, but free agency features Gleyber Torres, Jose Iglesias, Jorge Polanco and other possible replacements.

There are many factors for Preller to balance as he puts together next year’s club, but it’s at least a position he’s familiar with. Naturally, how he proceeds will depend on what other clubs are offering for Cease or Arráez or other players, but it will interesting to see him juggle all the different elements.

No Momentum Towards Extension Between Padres, Luis Arráez

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Infielder Luis Arráez is one year away from being a free agent. He has expressed an openness to signing an extension but it doesn’t appear anything is close on that front. Per a report from Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Friars have “not yet engaged in serious extension talks” with Arráez.

The fact that extension talks have not happened yet doesn’t necessarily mean that they can’t happen at a later date. Traditionally, clubs like to use this part of the calendar to focus on player acquisitions, leaving extensions for closer to spring training. However, Lin reports that there is some debate within the San Diego front office about how valuable Arráez is, which perhaps reduces the odds of extension talks gaining steam down the road.

On top of that, there are the ongoing budgetary questions to consider. The Padres were among the most aggressive clubs in baseball while owner Peter Seidler was still alive, but it was clearly unsustainable. In September of 2023, alongside news of Seidler’s deteriorating health, it was reported that their debt service ratio was not in compliance with MLB regulations.

The club had given out nine-figure contracts to players like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, alongside some other notable deals as they looked to remake the club’s image as a small-market also-ran. As they were sending that money out the door, less was coming in, as their TV deal with Diamond Sports Group collapsed.

Going into 2024, the club needed to cut some payroll but had limited options for doing so. All of those aforementioned deals were quite large and therefore hard to trade. Even if the Padres found interest, all of those players have full no-trade clauses on their deals. All of these factors, as well as a lack of rotation depth, seemed to lead to the Juan Soto trade. That allowed the Friars to make a big cut from their budget and duck under the competitive balance tax while also bringing back arms like Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with Thorpe later flipped as part of the Dylan Cease trade.

Going into 2024, the budget could again be an issue. Though they haven’t yet made any notable moves this offseason, RosterResource projects them for a $210MM payroll next year, more than $40MM beyond last year. They are also projected for a $244MM CBT number, just above next year’s $241MM base threshold.

It’s unknown what sort of exact payroll parameters the club has for 2025, but Lin suggests the budget is tight again. He reports that the Friars were interested in catchers Kyle Higashioka and Danny Jansen but came up short despite those backstops getting relatively modest deals. Higashioka got $13.5MM over two years from the Rangers while Jansen settled for just one year and $8.5MM from the Rays. That doesn’t suggest the club is working with a lot of financial firepower this winter.

Arráez would be a speculative candidate for a move to open some spending capacity since he’s effectively in the same position that Soto was last year. He’s going into his final year of club control and set to make a notable salary while several other players are locked into long-term deals.

Cease and King are also just one year from the open market, but trading either of them seems less likely. The San Diego rotation has a strong front three consisting of those two and Darvish but things get flimsy after that. Musgrove is likely to miss the entire 2025 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. Martín Pérez just became a free agent. Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez are options for the back end but neither is fully established at this point. If anything, the club needs to add to that group, so subtracting King or Cease wouldn’t make much sense.

Arráez, on the other hand, could make more sense as a trade candidate. He is one of the game’s best contact hitters, having won three straight batting titles, but doesn’t walk much or provide much power. He has only drawn a walk in 6.9% of his career plate appearances but has only been struck out 6.8% of the time, while never hitting more than ten homers in a season. His .323/.372/.418 batting line translates to a 120 wRC+.

That’s a unique approach in today’s game and Arráez is clearly the best at the things he does well, but it’s also a limited profile. He’s doesn’t steal a ton of bases and isn’t considered a strong defender at either second or first base, his two primary positions.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year. That’s far less than what Soto was slated to make in 2024 but still a lot of money for a useful but limited player. If the Padres were to trade Arráez, perhaps for some pitching, they could have an infield consisting of Machado at third, Bogaerts at short and Jake Cronenworth at second, perhaps using some of the savings to go after a cheaper option at first. Lin writes that the club would prefer to have Bogaerts at second like the start of the 2024 season but they would need a solution at shortstop with Ha-Seong Kim now a free agent and likely to miss the start of the 2025 season due to shoulder surgery.

This is largely speculative but Lin’s report that the front office isn’t convinced of Arráez’s value could perhaps nudge them more towards a trade than an extension. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has generally been unafraid to make bold strikes even when painful, as last year’s Soto trade showed, so the Friars could be a club to watch in the coming weeks if they shake up the trade market.

One player unlikely to be on the block is reliever Robert Suarez. Per Lin, the Padres are inclined to keep him as his contract has an opt-out after 2025, which complicates trade talks. The righty is set to make $10MM in 2025 and then $8MM in each of the next two years, though he can walk away from those final two seasons. He just posted a solid 2.77 ERA in 2024 and clubs would surely have interest in that kind of performance, but the contract provides a lot of downside. If Suarez suffered any kind of notable injury, he would surely decline his opt-out chance and linger on the books for those two years. Given that downside, a club may be reluctant to give up any kind of notable return or take on the entirety of the contract.

Lin also adds that the Padres are “hopeful, if not confident, about a potential reunion” with outfielder Jurickson Profar. After a dreadful 2023 season, Profar signed with San Diego for a guarantee of just $1MM in 2024. That turned out to be a massive bargain for the club, as Profar went on to hit .280/.380/.459 for a wRC+ of 139.

Profar and Preller have a long relationship, as he was working for the Rangers way back when Profar was signed as an international amateur. Since coming to the Padres, Preller has signed Profar multiple times. But on the heels of a career year, Profar might be looking to cash in. MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year deal with a $45MM guarantee. If Profar is looking for anything in that ballpark, it could be tough to get it from San Diego, given the aforementioned payroll restrictions.

What Should The Padres Do With Luis Arraez?

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One year removed from an offseason that saw the Padres radically alter the direction of their franchise by paring down on payroll and trading superstar Juan Soto to the Yankees, San Diego once again finds itself in something of a financial pickle. The club is expected to maintain its payroll level from 2024 headed into 2025; according to RosterResource, that’s a budget of $169MM and a luxury tax payroll that falls below the first threshold (which sits at $241MM in 2025). Getting to that level of payroll may be easier said than done, however, as the Padres are currently projected for a payroll just under $210MM in 2025 with a luxury tax payroll of $244M, just above the first threshold.

That leaves the club likely looking to pare down payroll by around $40MM this winter, and they’ll surely be hoping to make additions to the team in spite of those cuts. The Padres will need to add at least one starter to pair with a trio of Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish this winter, and the departure of Jurickson Profar leaves a void in left field, not to mention the losses of role players David Peralta and Donovan Solano weakening the club’s lineup at DH and on the bench. Of course, any players the club parts ways with to reduce payroll will surely create new holes that need to be filled, leaving A.J. Preller and the club’s front office in a bit of a pickle.

One avenue the Padres could use to reduce payroll this year runs through Luis Arraez. The club acquired the 27-year-old back in May, and he generally played fairly well during his time in San Diego this year with a .318/.346/.398 slash line that was good for a 111 wRC+ and earned him the third consecutive batting title of his career. A contact savant who has managed to reduce his already impressive 10% strikeout rate from 2021 to 7.1% in 2022, 5.4% in 2023, and 4.3% this past year, Arraez struck out an unbelievable 3.4% of the time during his time with the Padres. As an above-average hitter who is more reliable than anyone else in the game when it comes to putting the bat on the ball, it’s easy to see why Arraez has been attractive enough to clubs that both the Marlins and Padres have given up significant packages to land him in recent years.

That preternatural knack for contact is held back by Arraez’s lackluster plate discipline causing his walk rate to decline steadily alongside his strikeout rate over the years and a complete lack of power, however. Both of those flaws were on full display in 2024, as Arraez walked at a 3.6% clip with an ISO of .078, which both ranked third from the bottom among qualified major league hitters. While it’s possible that the thumb injury Arraez played through this year before undergoing surgery in October could have impacted him in the power department, but even his career-high .115 ISO with the Marlins last year landed just outside the bottom ten among qualified hitters. Between those flaws in his hitting profile and his lackluster defense that largely limited him to first base and DH with the Padres, it’s also easy to see why both the Twins and Marlins were willing to part ways with him on the trade market in recent years.

Could Arraez be dealt for the third year in a row this winter? Doing so is perhaps the simplest path to slashing a significant chunk of payroll for the Padres. Cease and King are both projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for hefty arbitration salaries, but neither reaches the $14.6MM figure Arraez is currently penciled in for. Clearing that money off the books would drop the Padres’ payroll to around $195MM. While San Diego would then need to replace Arraez at first base headed into next year, a number of bats at the position including former Padres Josh Bell, Ty France, and Anthony Rizzo figure to be available for a relative bargain this winter, meaning it should be fairly easy for the club to replace Arraez in the lineup and still come out $10-12MM ahead, not to mention that the return for Arraez’s services could help to plug holes in the rotation or outfield. Those motivations behind a potential deal were enough to land Arraez the 17th spot on MLBTR’s Top 35 offseason trade candidates list.

With that being said, a trade of Arraez isn’t the only option at the Padres’ disposal as they look for ways to pare down payroll. He’s already indicated this winter that he would be open to an extension with the club this winter as he stares down his final year under team control before free agency, and the Padres have regularly worked out contracts that offer the club additional financial flexibility in the short-term and the player additional security in the long term in the past. That includes deals that comes together just before a player is due to reach free agency, such as the extensions they’ve offered to Darvish and Manny Machado in recent years.

If Arraez were amenable to it, it’s easy to imagine the Padres back-loading the deal to reduce his 2025 salary significantly and/or offering a lower AAV over a longer term in order to duck under the luxury tax threshold. As one example, a six-year deal worth $60MM would come with an AAV of just $10MM, allowing the club to shave ~$4.6MM of its expected luxury tax bill for 2025. Meanwhile, if the deal was structured such that Arraez made just $5MM in the first year of the deal followed by $11MM salaries over the rest of the contract, that would offer the Padres nearly $10MM in savings on their 2025 payroll as compared to his arbitration salary- a figure not that different than what they’d save by trading him and replacing him with a low-cost veteran.

Those numbers are purely hypothetical, of course, and it’s certainly possible Arraez would not want to lock into a deal with such a relatively low annual salary without first seeing what’s available to him on the open market. That’s not the only flaw in the plan of extending Arraez, either; while a deal with a similar structure to the one mentioned above would be a major help in solving San Diego’s immediate payroll concerns for 2025, in a longer-term view it simply kicks the can down the road to next season when Arraez’s salary would shoot up by $6MM and could leave the club in the same financial jam they find themselves in now.

If you were in the Padres’ shoes, would you look to deal Arraez elsewhere this winter and replace him at first base, attempt to extend him long-term, or simply play out the season and cut payroll elsewhere? Have your say in the poll below!

Luis Arraez Undergoes Thumb Surgery

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Luis Arraez had surgery today to repair a torn ligament in his thumb. The three-time All-Star announced the news himself on X, while Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase added that the Padres expect to have him back at full health in time for spring training.

Arraez had been playing through the pain since mid-June, when he tore a ligament in his left thumb on a slide into third base. He sat out the All-Star Game to rest the injured digit but otherwise played in 70 of the Padres’ final 78 games and all seven of their postseason contests. However, he knew surgery would be necessary if he was going to make a proper recovery, and once the Padres were eliminated from the playoffs, he went under the knife.

With an NL-best .314 batting average, Arraez claimed his third consecutive batting title this season, but his overall numbers weren’t nearly as impressive as they’ve been in the recent past. After putting up an .829 OPS and 130 wRC+ from 2022 to ’23, Arraez produced a .739 OPS and 109 wRC+ in 2024. Those are still above-average numbers, but that level of offense isn’t great coming from a poor defensive first baseman/terrible defensive second baseman. And unfortunately, Arraez can’t blame all of his struggles on his thumb; he hit .310 with a 106 wRC+ before the injury and .319 with a 113 wRC+ after. At the same time, that’s not to say the torn ligament didn’t have any effect. His Statcast expected wOBA on contact fell from .335 before the injury to .312 afterward. It’s possible the pain from the injury prevented him from hitting the ball quite as hard.

Despite his down year, Arraez should be one of the highest-paid arbitration-eligible players next season, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $14.6MM salary for the infielder in 2025. It’s his final year of team control, so he’ll look to get back to full strength and perform more like his 2022-23 self, either to earn a bigger contract in free agency or an extension from San Diego. The Padres will hope for the same, since the best version of Arraez can be an excellent table-setter atop the lineup in front of hitters like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill.

Luis Arraez Interested In Extension With Padres

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After being traded for the second time in as many years back in May when he was acquired by the Padres in a deal that sent a four-player package back to Miami, Luis Arraez told reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) that he’s looking forward to the stability of knowing where he’s going to play next year. Not only that, Arraez even expressed interest in a longer-term deal to keep him in San Diego beyond the end of the 2025 season, when he’s scheduled to reach free agency for the first time.

“It means a lot of good things,” Arraez said, as relayed by Cassavell. “If they want to sign me, I want to stay here. This is business. I understand the business. But I hope I stay here for a long time.”

Arraez is in for a healthy payday this winter, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $14.6MM salary for the infielder in his final trip through arbitration. It’s a hefty price to pay for Arraez unique but somewhat limited skill set. Arraez has never provided much defensive value even when he primarily played second base with the Twins and Marlins. That changed upon Arraez’s arrival in San Diego, as the Padres used him at the keystone in just nine games while otherwise splitting his time between first base (where he profiles as a below average defender) and DH.

Meanwhile, Arraez’s elite contact is held back by lackluster plate discipline and a lack of power. While Arraez just won his third consecutive batting title with an excellent .314 average, he was just 9% better than the league average hitter by wRC+ thanks to a paltry 3.6% walk rate and a minuscule .078 ISO that leaves him with the third-lowest power production among all qualified hitters this year. An injury could help explain Arraez’s downturn in production after back-to-back 130 wRC+ seasons in 2022 and ’23, however: the infielder told reporters (including Cassavell) that he’s been playing through a thumb injury this year and is set to undergo an MRI to further explore the situation now that the Padres’ season has come to a close.

If Arraez would be open to a long-term deal at a lower average annual value than the $14.6MM figure he’s currently projected to earn via arbitration this winter, it’s not hard to imagine the Padres having incentive to put a deal together. After all, RosterResource projects the club for a luxury tax payroll just over $243MM in 2025, around $2MM above the lowest tax threshold of $241MM. Meanwhile, the club’s actual payroll is projected for just over $207MM, an increase of nearly $50MM over 2024’s $169MM figure. While specifics of the club’s payroll plans for 2025 are not yet clear, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres are “committed” to a payroll closer to their 2024 figure than 2023, when they ran an estimated payroll of $257 per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

With needs in the starting rotation and outfield that will have to be addressed this winter, San Diego brass may wind up needing to get creative in order to afford the additions necessary this winter. Extending Arraez could be one such creative route to a lower payroll, and it’s one the Padres have used under A.J. Preller in the past. Lefty Wandy Peralta and right-hander Yu Darvish are two of the most notable recent examples of players who were signed or extended on contracts designed to mitigate their luxury tax impact, and it’s even possible an Arraez extension could be somewhat back-loaded in order to free up more dollars for the 2024 team.

Of course, such an arrangement would require the Padres to have Arraez in their plans beyond the 2025 season. It’s not yet clear if Arraez’s desire to remain in San Diego beyond the life of his club control is reciprocated by club brass, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin did highlight Arraez recently as an “obvious” extension candidate for the club and emphasized San Diego’s respect for the 27-year-old’s unique skill set. There would surely be other obstacles to workaround in order to make a long-term deal into reality even if the interest is mutual, of course, not least of which would be Arraez’s status as one of the league’s most difficult to value players.

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