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31 Players On Track For Arbitration Hearings

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201 arbitration eligible players have reached agreements with their teams on a 2022 salary, most of which occurred just prior to Tuesday’s filing deadline.

According to Jake Seiner of The Associated Press, 31 arbitration eligible players remain unsigned and are on track for hearings.  Due to the lockout, the hearings are expected to take place during the season if agreements are not reached.  The full list of unsigned players, which includes Aaron Judge, Willson Contreras, and Dansby Swanson, can be found in our tracker.  Judge, having submitted a $21MM figure against the Yankees’ $17MM submission, represents the largest gap at $4MM.

All the other gaps are less than $2MM, and the smallest is the $200K separating Lucas Giolito and the White Sox.  Yesterday, Giolito told reporters that the sides were only $50K apart prior to filing, which the righty described as “very unfortunate, disheartening.”

The Braves have five of the 31 cases, with Swanson, Adam Duvall, Luke Jackson, Max Fried, and Austin Riley.  Six of the 31 players were traded this offseason: Jesse Winker, Adam Frazier, Gary Sanchez, Chris Bassitt, and Jacob Stallings.

A look at the number of hearings by year in the last decade:

  • 2021: 8
  • 2020: 12
  • 2019: 10
  • 2018: 22
    2017: 15
  • 2016: 4
  • 2015: 14
  • 2014: 3
  • 2013: 0
  • 2012: 7

Multiyear deals are always an option, and we record those in our extension tracker.

Britton, Giolito And Semien Discuss Lockout

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The MLB lockout has been ongoing for nearly a month, with the accompanying transactions freeze halting essentially all major league activity. The league and the MLB Players Association aren’t expected to discuss the game’s core economics issues — the most contentious in collective bargaining — until sometime after the New Year.

A few prominent players — each of whom assumes an active role within the MLBPA — recently appeared on the Chris Rose Rotation (YouTube link via Jomboy Media) to discuss the current state of talks (or lack thereof). Yankees reliever Zack Britton, Rangers middle infielder Marcus Semien and White Sox starter Lucas Giolito all expressed some frustration with the lack of progress to date.

Not surprisingly, the players argued MLB has yet to seriously engage in negotiations. “We feel like we’ve offered some good proposals,” Britton said. “And really we didn’t get anything from their end in Dallas (in negotiations during the final few days of November).”

Semien and Giolito largely echoed that sentiment. The former pointed out that MLB could’ve continued to negotiate rather than locking the players out upon the expiration of the previous collective bargaining agreement. The latter plainly stated that the MLBPA was hoping to return to the table as soon as possible. “We’re here, we’re ready to negotiate,” Giolito told Rose. “We’re pretty much waiting on MLB. We’ve made our proposals, we’ve made multiple proposals right before they decided to lock us out. They said no, they weren’t interested at the time. … We’re not going to negotiate against ourselves. It takes two to tango.”

Of course, there’s been similar rhetoric on the part of MLB. At the time the league locked the players out, commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters that MLB “candidly … didn’t feel that sense of pressure on the other side” and added it was the league’s desire to “get back to the table as quickly as we can.” Very little has happened in the nearly four weeks since, although it’s not clear whether continued discussions on core economics would’ve done much regardless. Evan Drellich of the Athletic wrote a few weeks ago that December negotiations would have likely entailed the parties “saying the same things to each other over and over.”

The most pressing issues in talks — the competitive balance tax, the service time structure, salaries for early-career players, etc. — have been discussed ad nauseam in recent weeks. While speaking with Rose, each of Britton, Semien and Giolito argued that the union was more concerned than the league is with competitive balance. “We want every team to be trying to win year-in and year-out,” Britton said. “We think that’s fair to the fanbases and that’s what we want. We’re going to continue to send that message.” Giolito took a similar tack, alluding to clubs that have slashed their MLB payrolls during rebuilds. “We want thirty teams competing, trying to field the best possible players so that the game is more competitive. That’s kind of what we are stressing with our proposals: let’s make the game better for everybody, number one being the fans.”

Some lower-payroll clubs have of course managed to consistently remain successful in spite of budgetary limitations. Yet it’s clear that the players took issue with clubs that have largely chosen to sit out free agency while orchestrating massive organizational overhauls. Britton pointed to his former team, the Orioles, as one such club of concern, although he cautioned that the Baltimore franchise was merely one of a few examples of what the players feel to be a widespread problem.

Given the lack of movement to date, is it still possible for a new deal to be reached without games being interrupted? Semien expressed optimism on the union’s behalf about avoiding interruptions to Spring Training, although he unsurprisingly noted that “January is a huge month.” That said, all three players reiterated they didn’t feel any time pressure to meaningfully move off their current goals.

Britton and Giolito each pointed to last year’s pandemic freeze as a potential strengthening factor for the union. That wasn’t technically a work stoppage, as the game was paused due to national emergency. Yet the return-to-play discussions proved contentious, with the MLBPA eventually filing a grievance alleging that MLB didn’t negotiate in good faith to play as many games as possible last year during a season with essentially zero gate revenue.

“(Waiting it out) is part of the process right now,” Giolito said. “ Going through the pandemic year, kind of fighting for what we wanted as players, really coming together, communicating well, that puts us in a good position now. … Even if things are delayed a little bit, we’re here, we’re ready to negotiate. We’re going to keep pushing for getting a season going as soon as possible.“

AL Notes: Mariners, Lewis, Castillo, Misiewicz, White Sox, Giolito

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The Mariners were hopeful that reigning Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis would begin a rehab assignment on Friday, but those plans were dashed by soreness in his surgically-repaired right knee, per The Athletic’s Corey Brock. Lewis went under the knife in June after just 147 plate appearances. His offense was down a little to a .246/.333/.392 triple slash line, but even ignoring the small sample caveat, that’s still good for a 107 wRC+.

Lewis’ delay is unfortunate, especially given the struggles of Jarred Kelenic in center.  Jake Fraley and Taylor Trammell have helped out in center as well, but Fraley is on the injured list and Trammell is in Triple-A. Somewhat improbably in the playoff hunt, the Mariners could certainly use better than the 50 wRC+ that Kelenic is providing, but given this latest setback for Lewis, any improvement will likely have to come from Kelenic himself. In other news…

  • The Mariners expect bullpen reinforcements soon. Diego Castillo and Anthony Misiewicz are on their way back from the injured list, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (via Twitter). Misiewicz has been one of their more reliable relievers on the season, and Castillo was intended to take over the closer role when he was acquired at the deadline. Paul Sewald has claimed that job for now, so it will be worth watching where manager Scott Servais chooses to work Castillo back into the mix. [UPDATE: the Mariners have officially reinstated Castillo and Misiewicz from the IL.]
  • Lucas Giolito’s hamstring strain may ultimately be a good thing for the White Sox righty. A short stint on the injured list will allow him to reset and adjust some of his mechanics, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. On finishing his delivery, Giolito said, “When my finish gets violent, I am recoiling on the pitch and my leg stiffens out. It’s almost like I am falling backwards. I don’t want to be there. It’s a bad habit. When I am strong on my front leg, even with a little bend, it allows me to get through the pitch, which leads to more extension going forward. I feel I am more consistent when I am more athletic and stronger through my finish.”

Injury Notes: Giolito, Longoria, Torres, Moreland, McGowin

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The White Sox placed Lucas Giolito on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 1, due to a left hamstring strain this afternoon. It seems the move is mostly precautionary, as manager Tony La Russa told reporters (including Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times) that Giolito is scheduled to throw a bullpen session next Wednesday. The White Sox can afford to be especially cautious with even minor injuries for their top players, as they’re coasting to a division title and hoping to get everybody right for the postseason. Giolito has a 3.69 ERA/3.68 SIERA over 158 1/3 innings this season.

Some more health situations around the league:

  • The Giants announced they’ve activated third baseman Evan Longoria from the 10-day injured list. The 35-year-old returns in time for perhaps the club’s biggest series of the year, as San Francisco is set to kick off a three-game set against the Dodgers, with whom they’re tied atop the NL West. Injuries have limited Longoria to 199 plate appearances this season, but he’s looked rejuvenated when healthy. Longoria owns a .289/.382/.526 line with ten home runs. Mauricio Dubón was optioned to clear active roster space.
  • The Yankees activated shortstop Gleyber Torres from the 10-day injured list before this evening’s game with the Orioles. The 24-year-old returns after a three-week absence due to a thumb sprain. Torres got off to a slow start but looked like he’d begun to turn a corner offensively before going down. He has a .253/.328/.351 mark across 407 plate appearances altogether. New York optioned outfielder Estevan Florial in a corresponding move.
  • Athletics designated hitter/first baseman Mitch Moreland landed on the 10-day injured list with left wrist tendinitis earlier this week. Manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle) that Moreland’s wrist will be in a splint “for at least a few weeks.” With a month remaining in the regular season, that would seemingly put Moreland’s season in jeopardy — at least barring an A’s postseason run. Moreland has struggled to a .227/.286/.415 line across 252 plate appearances this season, a disappointing follow-up to a strong 2020 campaign split between the Red Sox and Padres.
  • The Nationals placed reliever Kyle McGowin on the 10-day injured list this afternoon. The right-hander has a UCL sprain in his throwing elbow and will see a specialist to determine his course of treatment, relays Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Any injury to a pitcher’s UCL raises the specter of a potential Tommy John surgery, although there’s no indication McGowin is facing any sort of procedure just yet. The 29-year-old has made 30 relief appearances for the Nats this season, working to a 4.20 ERA/3.85 SIERA.

Latest On White Sox Rotation

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Lucas Giolito suffered a “freak minor injury,” pushing his start back from yesterday to Tuesday and allowing the White Sox to keep Michael Kopech in the rotation for one more go. He delivered with his longest and most-impressive outing of the season, using 87 pitches to get through five innings, striking out ten, giving up four hits, zero walks and one run in a win against the Rangers.

White Sox manager Tony La Russa believes in Kopech’s long-term potential as a rotation arm, but he’ll go back to a hybrid role out of the bullpen for now. Per the Athletic’s James Fegan, La Russa said, “This is definitely not the time to think about moving Michael into the rotation. Michael Kopech is going to be a top-line starting pitcher. But right now it made sense to get him in condition and add more and more pitches. More importantly, the fact that he has competed so well shows that he has guts when he goes out there; he keeps his cool and concentration. I don’t have a crystal ball, but if he pitched — and I use the (Adam) Wainwright experience from ’06 — he can pitch in the bullpen all year long and maybe next year win 20 (games), or maybe later on he pitches this year as a starter.”

Kopech has made a pair of spot starts this year in his first game action since 2018. He’s also come out of the bullpen four times for a total of 15 2/3 innings – already a big-league career-high – with a sparkling 1.72 ERA/1.25 FIP. He’s striking out batters at an elite 46.6 percent rate while allowing a very strong 6.9 percent walk. It’s early, of course, but even out of the pen, the lanky 24-year-old with electric stuff is proving to be a weapon for the White Sox.

Kopech has come a long way since being a centerpiece of the Chris Sale trade back in 2016. It’s somewhat amazing that he’ll turn just 25 years old this upcoming Friday. Fegan detailed Kopech’s journey back to the Majors for a piece well worth a read here in the Athletic.

Injury Notes: Crawford, Longoria, Rendon, Nola, Giolito

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The Giants made Brandon Crawford a late scratch from yesterday’s lineup due to quad tightness.  Evan Longoria also missed his second consecutive game with hamstring tightness, after the same issue forced him to make an early exit from last Thursday’s game.  To add some extra infield help, the Giants called up Jason Vosler from the alternate training site prior to yesterday’s game (reliever Jarlin Garcia was placed on the 10-day IL with a left groin strain).

San Francisco has more infield depth than most clubs, though even the Giants’ roster has been stressed with Crawford and Longoria both hurting and Donovan Solano already on the injured list recovering from a calf strain.  Mauricio Dubon is the top choice to fill in at shortstop if Crawford has to miss any more time, while Wilmer Flores has been handling third base in Longoria’s absence.  It also creates an opportunity for Vosler, who made his MLB debut last night.  The 27-year-old was a 16th-round pick for the Cubs back in 2014, and Vosler has spent his minor league career in the Cubs and Padres farm systems, also spending time at San Diego’s alternate training site in 2020.

The latest on some other injury situations from around baseball…

  • Anthony Rendon could return to the Angels’ lineup tomorrow or Tuesday, manager Joe Maddon told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters.  Rendon hit the 10-day IL due to a left groin strain back on April 12, so the third baseman will likely end up missing only slightly more than the 10-day minimum.  Anaheim’s already-strong offense will be even more dangerous with the addition of a former All-Star in Rendon, who is entering his second season with the team.
  • Austin Nola could return to the Padres lineup next week, manager Jayce Tingler told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune).  Nola has been out since mid-March after fracturing his left middle finger in Spring Training, though Nola is playing games at the Padres’ alternate training site.  San Diego has relied upon Victor Caratini and top prospect Luis Campusano to handle catching duties in Nola’s absence, though neither Caratini or Campusano have been very productive at the plate.
  • Michael Kopech will start for the White Sox today rather than originally-scheduled starter Lucas Giolito, who told reporters (including Vinnie Duber of NBC Sports Chicago) he has been “pushed back a couple of days” due to a cut on the middle finger of his throwing hand.  As Giolito explained in self-deprecating fashion, he suffered the minor injury because “I thought that a glass water bottle I had was twist-off, and it wasn’t twist-off.”  The team decided to hold Giolito out of today’s start just to be cautious, and the right-hander expects to pitch Tuesday when the White Sox open a series against the Tigers.

White Sox Discussing Extensions With Lucas Giolito, Andrew Vaughn

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The White Sox have been “engaging” with ace Lucas Giolito and top prospect Andrew Vaughn about possible contract extensions, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports.  For now, no deal appears imminent with either player.  Both Giolito and Vaughn are represented by CAA Sports.

Giolito will be paid $4.15MM in 2021 as per an arbitration-avoiding contract with the White Sox back in January, and the right-hander is under arb control through the 2023 season.  Vaughn’s MLB service clock has yet to start, so an extension would make him the third White Sox player (after Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert) in as many years to sign a multi-year contract before making his big league debut.

At the start of March, Giolito said “there haven’t really been discussions about an extension” with the team, though it appears talks have picked up to at least some extent.  To some extent, Chicago has time on its side given that Giolito is controlled through 2023, yet naturally the Sox would love to lock up Giolito now before his price tag could continue to rise.  If Giolito pitches as well in 2021 as he did over 249 innings in 2019-20 (3.43 ERA with an impressive 32.7K% and 8.6BB%), the White Sox could be looking at an extension worth tens of millions more by this time next year.

Looking at other extensions for pitchers who had between three and four years of service time, Giolito would surely be looking to top the four-year, $45MM deal Aaron Nola signed with the Phillies prior to the 2019 season.  That contract covered Nola’s first arb year — he and the Phillies were approaching a hearing — and also contained a club option that gives the Phils control over a second of Nola’s free agent years.

The White Sox could make the case that Nola was a more proven commodity with 569 MLB innings at the time of his extension and hadn’t suffered any major arm troubles, whereas Giolito already has a Tommy John procedure under his belt.  Of course, Giolito’s camp could counter that prices have simply gone up in the two-plus years since Nola’s extension, and that Giolito’s durability isn’t a concern after he averaged 175 IP in 2018-19 (and obviously Giolito could have banked many more innings if the 2020 season wasn’t shortened).

Both Jimenez and Robert signed six-year contracts with two club option years attached, with Jimenez receiving $43MM in guaranteed money prior to the 2019 season and Robert $50MM guaranteed in January 2020.  It’s probably safe to guess that White Sox GM Rick Hahn is proposing a similar framework to Vaughn’s representatives, so a full eight-year stint would keep Vaughn (who turns 23 next month) on the South Side through his age-30 season.

Selected with the third overall pick of the 2019 draft, Vaughn demolished Pac-12 pitching over three years at Cal, then got his pro career off to a quick start by batting .278/.384/.449 with six homers in 245 combined plate appearances at rookie ball, A-ball, and high-A ball.  His 2020 minor league season was wiped out by the pandemic, but Vaughn’s bat is considered so ready for prime time that he is expected to play an important role for the big league team this coming season, projected for the bulk of DH at-bats and occasionally spelling AL MVP Jose Abreu at first base when Abreu needs a DH day.

A pre-career extension would allow Chicago to install Vaughn on the Opening Day roster without any of the service-time machinations that teams often deploy to keep top prospects in the minors for just long enough to gain an extra year of control.  Like Jimenez and Robert, Vaughn is a consensus pick as one of the game’s best minor leaguers, ranking high on top-prospect lists from Keith Law (who ranks Vaughn 10th), MLB Pipeline (14th), Baseball Prospectus (14th), Fangraphs (14th), and Baseball America (21st).

Lucas Giolito On Potential Extension

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After a difficult start to his career, White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito established himself as a bona fide top-of-the-rotation starter over the previous two seasons. The 26-year-old now looks like a long-term cornerstone for the franchise, though it doesn’t appear either side has aggressively pursued a contract extension.

“There haven’t really been discussions about an extension, which is fine,” Giolito, a CAA Sports client, told James Fegan of The Athletic. “I think the organization knows that I value myself. I know kind of what I’m worth.”

Fortunately for the White Sox, they’re in no imminent danger of losing Giolito, who has three years of arbitration control remaining. However, they have shown in recent years that they’re willing to lock up their core players for the long haul. To name a few prominent examples, the team has signed shortstop Tim Anderson, third baseman Yoan Moncada, and outfielders Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert to extensions dating back to 2017. Giolito certainly ranks up there with that group in terms of his importance to the club.

This year, Giolito will earn $4.15MM, which is a major bargain for what he has brought to the table dating back to 2019. While Giolito was one of the worst starters in baseball in 2018, during which he logged a 6.13 ERA/5.37 SIERA in 173 1/3 innings, the light bulb has since gone on for the former star prospect. Giolito notched a 3.43 ERA/3.55 SIERA with a 32.7 percent strikeout rate against an 8.6 percent walk rate across 249 innings over the prior two seasons, and he finished seventh in the American League Cy Young balloting a year ago.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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How Much Would It Cost The White Sox To Extend Lucas Giolito?

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The White Sox have already reached new agreements with a host of players of late, with Yoan Moncada recently joining Aaron Bummer, Luis Robert, and Jose Abreu just this winter. Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez inked deals previously. So … what’s one more?

The starting rotation is noticeably underrepresented from the ranks of the extended core. While a few hurlers could become candidates in short order, there’s probably only one who’s really primed for a deal: Lucas Giolito.

Giolito’s path is remarkably similar to that of Moncada. They both came over in back-to-back trades in the 2016-17 offseason — each of which, somewhat ironically, involved White Sox stars (Chris Sale and Adam Eaton) who had loads of trade value thanks to their own early-career extensions. There were some growing pains and moments of doubt for the long-hyped Giolito and Moncada. Then came 2019 …

While the White Sox weren’t all that competitive as a team last year, they had some exceedingly promising outcomes from individual players. On the pitching side, nobody came close to Giolito, who was one of the top dozen or so starters leaguewide. He completely reversed a miserable 2018 season, vaulting to new personal highs in velocity (94.6 mph average fastball), swinging-strike rate (15.0%), and K%-BB% (24.2%).

There’s not much to dislike about Giolito’s effort. He didn’t excel at limiting the long ball, but was slightly better than the league mean in homers allowed (1.22) and homers-per-flyball rate (13.6%). Statcast indicated that Giolito largely deserved the outcomes, crediting opposing hitters with a meager .275 wOBA and .280 xwOBA. Giolito dominated opposing lefties in 2019. There were health concerns when Giolito was drafted, but he already got Tommy John surgery out of the way and has mostly been healthy since. (He ended 2019 with a mild lat injury and is now dealing with a pec issue, but both seem rather minor.)

The question, really, is one of faith. Giolito is only 25 years of age and has a top-shelf pedigree. The results finally matched. So do the White Sox let things play out through arbitration — like Moncada, Giolito is still a full season shy of arb qualification and four campaigns removed from free agency — or chase yet further upside with yet another extension?

That may depend upon the cost. While Giolito was a first-round pick, he fell to the 16th pick of the 2012 draft. He still got a big signing bonus, but at just under $3MM it was less than a tenth of what Moncada commanded. For a pitcher that has already dealt with some health issues, and hasn’t yet reached that first big payday, there’s definitely greater sense in selling away some earning ceiling in exchange for security.

Giolito wouldn’t be the first starting pitcher to do so. In fact, this stage of a career — just before arbitration — is quite the popular time for hurler and team to line up on a deal. Jon Lester’s 2009 pact with the Red Sox — five years, $30MM plus an option — proved a market-setting contract. The total guarantee has crept up a bit in some cases in recent years and we’ve seen various ways of tweaking the model, but that’s still the core structure of many such contracts.

In this case, the White Sox would probably be thrilled to slot Giolito into that five-year, mid-thirty plus option(s) sort of a deal. There’s really not all that much risk. Sure, you’d always rather pay less for more, but even one more elite season or a couple of good-but-not-great efforts would justify that sort of cost. And there are loads of scenarios where the organization could clean up. The team just promised Bummer, a non-closing (for now) reliever, $16MM. Doubling that (plus change) for a high-end starter is more or less a no-brainer unless the club has some inside cause for concern.

All that points to an argument that Giolito really shouldn’t be slotted into the classic form of Lester and progeny. After all, lower-ceiling lefty Marco Gonzales just got a $30MM guarantee over four years with a single option. Giolito looks more like German Marquez, who recently commanded $42MM+ on a four-year term while giving up one option year.

Then again, perhaps Giolito can present a case for something more akin to the deal inked between Blake Snell and the Rays. That accord included over $49MM of new money and only required Snell to hand over control over one would-be free agent season — one less than the other two deals just discussed — thus leaving him more future earning upside. Snell’s Cy Young Award gave him a boost, to be sure, but his pact also came together on the heels of a weak market for free agent pitchers. We just saw Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg blow the top off of the rotation market.

It’ll be interesting to see how this one shakes out, if indeed serious talks occur. Maybe Giolito will get a Snell-like agreement but fall a bit short in terms of guaranteed cash. Or perhaps he’ll look to build upon the Marquez deal, giving up that extra season of control (in Giolito’s case, his age-30 season) to boost the up-front cash promise. Regardless, I’ll go ahead and guess that a contract would land in the realm of a $45MM guarantee.

Photo courtey of USA Today Sports Images.

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