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Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

D-Backs’ Offseason Trade Pickup Off To Excellent Start

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In an offseason light on impact trade activity, the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays pulled off one of the biggest swaps. Arizona’s left-handed hitting outfield surplus and Toronto’s catching depth materialized in the deal that sent Gold Glove caliber outfielder Daulton Varsho to Toronto for rookie backstop Gabriel Moreno. That duo were the main players involved, but Arizona also added right-handed balance to the lineup with the inclusion of veteran left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Gurriel has a longer MLB track record than either of Varsho or Moreno but was by far the tertiary player in terms of trade value. He’d been a good but not elite hitter throughout his time with the Jays. In 2022, the Cuban-born outfielder put up a .291/.343/.400 batting line with five home runs over 493 plate appearances. That offensive output checked in 14 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+. Paired with average defensive marks in a corner outfield spot, Gurriel has been worth between one and two wins above replacement in every season of his career (although he would’ve been on a better pace in 2020 if that schedule hadn’t been truncated).

There was no question Gurriel was a viable major league player. He’d been a near average regular for the entirety of his career. Due roughly $5.4MM in his final season before free agency — a clause in the contract he signed with Toronto after defecting from Cuba allows him to reach the open market next winter even though he’ll be a little shy of six years of MLB service — he had trade value but not an overwhelming amount.

Arizona anticipated an immediate downgrade in their outfield from Varsho to Gurriel, a tradeoff they were willing to make to install Moreno behind the plate for the next six seasons. While that could still play out, Gurriel has somewhat surprisingly been the far more productive of the two outfielders through the first couple months of the year. Varsho has started his Toronto tenure with a .217/.294/.382 showing through 42 contests. Over his first 39 games in the desert, Gurriel is off to a career-best .310/.373/.552 pace. His seven homers in 161 plate appearances already tops last year’s mark and puts him on pace to beat his career-best 21 longballs from two years ago.

As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explored before this season, injuries could certainly have played a role in Gurriel’s up-and-down results from 2022. He’d bookended a very strong run between June and July with dismal numbers in May and August. A hamstring strain cut his season short in early September and, likely of greater import on his production, he underwent surgery on the hamate bone in his left hand following the season. Hand and wrist injuries can sap a hitter’s strength; if Gurriel were playing through that issue for a while, it’d be understandable why his power production was at a career-worst level.

Better health is a plausible explanation for some of Gurriel’s improved production but doesn’t account for all of it. He’s also working with a more dialed-in plate approach than he has in years past. Through play Wednesday, he’s sitting on a personal-low 14.9% strikeout rate and drawing walks at a career-best 8.1% clip.

While Gurriel has always had good bat-t0-ball skills, he has taken things to a new level in the early going by being more selective. He has offered at 45.8% of the pitches he’s seen, the lowest rate of his career by three percentage points. Gurriel is translating that approach into consistent contact. He has gotten the bat on the ball on an excellent 85.8% of his swings, almost six points better than last year’s personal-high mark. Pitchers have been unable to beat him in the zone, with Gurriel making contact nearly 92% of the time he goes after a would-be strike. He’s putting the ball in play more consistently without sacrificing any of his contact authority.

That’s an ideal combination for a hitter. Gurriel is 29th among 171 qualified batters in on-base percentage and 10th in slugging. That plays even without elite defense in the outfield. It’s among the reasons Arizona sits at 25-19 with a +16 run differential and looks like a legitimate contender for a Wild Card spot in an uncertain National League playoff picture.

A career showing couldn’t be timed better for Gurriel personally. He’s headed to the open market for the first time since he was a 23-year-old amateur signee. He’ll do so in advance of his age-30 season and as part of a free agent class that looks very thin on position player talent. Among potential impending free agents with 100+ plate appearances, only Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier and Max Muncy (who’s controllable for 2024 via $10MM club option) have a higher wRC+ than Gurriel’s 148.

Gurriel isn’t going to be the #3 free agent position player in the class but he has a chance to hit his way into a solid multi-year deal. Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto topped $35MM on contracts with opt-out possibilities as bat-first corner outfielders. Both players had durability concerns that aren’t there with Gurriel. The five years and $75MM secured by Andrew Benintendi feels lofty given Benintendi’s defensive advantage and youth (he signed going into his age-28 season), but Gurriel looks like the superior hitter.

At the very least, Arizona’s new acquisition has a chance to position himself as an interesting mid-tier free agent. It remains to be seen if he can keep up his present pace over six months but he looks healthier than he had last season and is making excellent swing decisions. It’s a better start than the D-Backs could’ve expected and a key development in the club’s strong start to the year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Make Or Break Year: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

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The Diamondbacks and Blue Jays combined on one of the winter’s biggest trades back in December, though for all of the attention the deal received, much more focus was (understandably) placed on the involvement of Daulton Varsho and Gabriel Moreno than on the fact that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was now headed to Arizona.  Varsho is a very promising young player and already an ace defender, while Moreno is arguably baseball’s best prospect — with all these future potential in mind, it isn’t necessarily surprising that Gurriel was something of an afterthought.

It wasn’t that long ago that Gurriel was himself a sought-after young talent, when he defected from Cuba in 2016 and signed a seven-year, $22MM deal with Toronto later that year.  He made his MLB debut in April 2018 at age 24 and has since carved out a solid career for himself over five seasons in the Show, yet in some ways, Gurriel has been hampered by those initial high expectations.  Though Gurriel has been much better than many prospects (both international and from the domestic draft) over the years who carried a lot more hype, having “only” a solid career to date has perhaps been a little underwhelming considering how good Gurriel has looked when he has been in top form.

Gurriel’s .285/.329/.468 slash line and 68 homers over 1864 career MLB plate appearances translates to a 115 wRC+, well above the league average.  He has consistently delivered good (and in 2020, elite) hard-hit ball rates, and his barrel rates were similarly pretty consistent before plummeting downwards in 2022.  While Gurriel doesn’t walk much, his strikeout and whiff rates have steadily improved over the last four seasons, with Gurriel topping out in the 78th percentile of all hitters in K% and in the 71st percentile in whiff rate last year.

With all this in mind, however, Gurriel has amassed only 6.2 fWAR over his 468 big league games.  For comparison’s sake, Varsho has 7.1 fWAR over 283 games and 1022 PA, with 4.6 fWAR coming in the 2022 season alone.  Defense accounts for much of Varsho’s advantage, as Gurriel has been roughly an average left fielder since the start of the 2019 season, when factoring in all of the public defensive metrics.  Defensive Runs Saved (+4) likes Gurriel’s outfield work, while UZR/150 (-2.7) and especially Outs Above Average (-16) have been a lot less impressed.  It is worth noting, however, that Gurriel was a finalist for the AL left field Gold Glove in both 2020 and 2021, somewhat in defiance of the mixed reviews from the metrics.

Glovework has been an element of Gurriel’s big league career from the start, as the Blue Jays initially hoped he could be a shortstop prospect or at least a second baseman, but he struggled badly as an infielder.  Fortunately for both Gurriel and the Jays, a position change to left field allowed him to settle in both as a defender and at the plate, even if it limited Gurriel’s overall value in the long term.  As he heads into his age-29 season, Gurriel has only moderate defensive utility as a passable left fielder and as a part-time first baseman, though his solid arm strength suggests that he might be an option in right field (a position he has never played in the majors).

Looking at Gurriel’s batting statistics, his good overall numbers smooth over a lot of streakiness at the plate.  The outfielder is prone to extreme hot and cold stretches, with injuries sometimes factoring into that variance.  Just in 2022, Gurriel had a .601 OPS over his first 154 plate appearances, then posted a .901 OPS in his next 241 PA, then slumped to a .554 OPS in his final 98 PA prior to a hamstring injury that prematurely ended his season in early September.

While that roller-coaster of a season evened out to 114 wRC+ in 493 PA, Gurriel’s sudden lack of power was a concern, as his .108 Isolated Power total was far below the .209 ISO he had previously posted during his career.  Again, injuries might have been a reason, as Gurriel dealt with a wrist problem during the season that eventually required surgery in October, and he is expected to be ready for his first Spring Training with the D’Backs.

It all adds up to a career that has been both inconsistent, yet somewhat predictably inconsistent at the same time.  The Diamondbacks have a reasonable expectation of what a healthy Gurriel can deliver as a floor, with hopes that his ceiling might reach higher in a new environment.  Gurriel could also benefit to some extent if the D’Backs use their left-handed hitting outfielders (i.e. Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Dominic Fletcher) to provide some shield against right-handed pitching, though Gurriel’s career splits are pretty even.

2023 is the final season of Gurriel’s initial seven-year contract, and a clause in the deal makes him automatically eligible for free agency next winter even though Gurriel will be short of six years of MLB service time.  The outfielder will be 30 on Opening Day 2024, so he can still offer some prime years to an interesting team on the open market, but much will be determined by how Gurriel performs this season in Arizona.

Some Toronto fans were surprised that the Blue Jays had to include both Moreno and Gurriel to pry Varsho away from the D’Backs, yet that could reflect what relatively modest trade value Gurriel had around the league, even for a player owed only $5.4MM in 2023.  Even from the Diamondbacks’ perspective, while Gurriel’s inclusion was a factor in finally getting the trade over the finish line, the still-existing outfield surplus within the organization means that Arizona probably sees Gurriel as a one-year rental.  If the D’Backs are again out of contention by the trade deadline, Gurriel might be a prime candidate to be shipped elsewhere.

If Gurriel matches only his 2021-22 numbers, a two-year free agent deal might be his max, and a lot of teams might not be willing to go beyond one guaranteed year.  As we’ve seen this offseason, teams are willing to pay big for superstars, or pay big (either in free agent dollars or in trade return) for younger players with potential to break out.  Clubs are less willing to open their wallets for “just” solid production, thus leaving Gurriel in danger of being squeezed in the market unless he has a quality platform season.

Gurriel could point to older brother Yuli as an example of how later-career production runs in the family.  However, the younger Gurriel will likely need to stay healthy and (perhaps significantly) out-perform his past Toronto production in order to really capitalize on his upcoming trip to the open market.

GMs Ross Atkins, Mike Hazen Share Details On Blue Jays/Diamondbacks Trade

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After months of speculation and interest from multiple teams, the Diamondbacks finally traded one of their left-handed hitting outfielders and the Blue Jays finally moved one of their catchers.  The two clubs joined forces on Friday’s three-player deal that saw outfielder Daulton Varsho head to Toronto in exchange for catcher Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., in a trade that checks several boxes for both organizations.

Given how the D’Backs and Jays’ needs dovetailed so neatly, it isn’t a surprise that Toronto GM Ross Atkins said it was “from the very beginning of the off-season that dialogue began” between the two sides.

“It absolutely was a great fit with their surplus of outfielders, specifically left-handed hitting centre fielders and us having a surplus of catching and their need,” Atkins told reporters, including TSN’s Scott Mitchell. “Right from the start, we felt that was going to be a very important team and fit.”

The Blue Jays entered the winter with Moreno, Alejandro Kirk, and Danny Jansen all lined up as options behind the plate, with Moreno (one of the game’s best prospects) looking ready for an extended audition after making his MLB debut with 25 games played in 2022.  While Varsho has only 283 MLB games on his resume, he was actually the most experienced of Arizona’s outfield core — Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas both made their big league debuts in 2022, and Jake McCarthy has appeared in 123 games for the Diamondbacks over the last two seasons.

Varsho’s longer track record seemingly made him the most sought-after player by interested teams, especially since the D’Backs made Carroll (another elite prospect) all but untouchable in trade negotiations.  With the Diamondbacks intent on adding “impact in this trade,” according to Arizona general manager Mike Hazen, that need couldn’t be met just by shopping Thomas or McCarthy.

“I think there was more certainty — and clearly, we have it, too — with Daulton’s performance to this point in his career, and probably rightly so, that teams were willing to pay more for that.  I don’t know that we were ever going to cross that divide otherwise,” Hazen told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro and other reporters.

Such teams as the Yankees, Reds, White Sox, Athletics, Astros, Brewers, and Marlins were also linked to the Diamondbacks’ outfielders on the rumor mill, as both contenders and rebuilding teams alike had interest in Arizona’s mix of controllable young players.  Likewise, Toronto got lots of calls about its catchers, but reports suggested that the Blue Jays first wanted to wait and see where some other catchers on the free agent and trade market landed.  Once the Braves acquired Sean Murphy from Oakland and once Willson Contreras (Cardinals) and Christian Vazquez (Twins) signed, the road was then a little more clear for the D’Backs and Jays to align on a trade.

Even then, Atkins said that finding a match was tricky since “all three catchers were of some interest to them and all of their outfielders were of some interest to us.  The component that made it challenging is that we were both trying to consolidate more talent on our Major League roster.  They are looking to take steps forward obviously and push the envelope on the winning front and that’s why Lourdes Gurriel came into the picture and made this deal work.”

Gurriel’s inclusion gives the D’Backs a veteran but not old (Gurriel is entering his age-29) outfield presence to join with Carroll, McCarthy, Thomas, and former AL Rookie Of The Year Kyle Lewis, who was acquired in another trade with the Mariners earlier this winter.  “I’m hoping the contact, the on-base, the ability to hit, the two-strike approach, is going to lend itself to making our lineup even tougher to face with the way some of those kids are going to be running around the bases the way they did last year,” Hazen said.  “I feel like a lot of that dynamic offense has a chance to be enhanced.”

The trade with the Jays and Mariners represent Arizona’s biggest moves of the winter, as the D’Backs have otherwise mostly focused on their bullpen with relatively lower-tier moves like the signings of Miguel Castro and Scott McGough.  Friday also saw the D’Backs complete another trade, bringing Diego Castillo from the Pirates to add more infield depth to the mix.

With Arizona still trying to finds its footing after three straight losing seasons, the Blue Jays are in a different position as a club intending to compete for a World Series in 2023.  After a disappointing collapse against Seattle in the Wild Card Series, the Jays have been aggressive in signing right-hander Chris Bassitt to a three-year, $63MM deal, signing Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year contract, and trading Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners for Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko.

Now that the Jays finally pulled the trigger on a catcher trade, Atkins said “I think our heavy lifting is done” for the rest of the offseason, though the front office is “certainly not ruling anything out and would expect some incremental improvements.”  Varsho and Kiermaier are both left-handed hitters, and thus the Blue Jays will “look to improve our team from the subtraction of Gurriel, but in our view it doesn’t need to be right-handed or left-handed, it’s more about the impact and the fit beyond that.”

Blue Jays Acquire Daulton Varsho From D-Backs For Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

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The Blue Jays announced that they have acquired outfielder Daulton Varsho from the Diamondbacks. Going the other way will be catching prospect Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr..

For the Blue Jays, they’ve long been looking to add a left-handed complement to their right-handed heavy lineup. They’ve also been rumored all offseason to be willing to deal from their catching surplus in order to address other areas of their roster. With Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Moreno all jockeying for playing time, it seemed like they would use one of them to line up a deal with a catching-needy team. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have drawn much trade interest this offseason on their multiple outfielders. Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy and Varsho are all left-handed and have various attributes, but it made for a logjam that many expected to be cleared via trade. Given those factors, the two teams have been frequently made for speculative trade partners, which has come to fruition with this deal.

Varsho, 26, was a top 100 prospect in the minors and debuted for the Diamondbacks in 2020. Though he was primarily a catcher, his natural athleticism has pushed him into more of an outfield role recently. It was reported towards the end of the 2022 campaign that the Diamondbacks were so impressed by his outfield work that they were planning to keep him there going forward. That was a fairly sensible conclusion to draw given his excellent defensive grades on the grass. He was given a +19 from Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield this year, along with an 18.8 from Ultimate Zone Rating and 17 Outs Above Average. All three of those figures were tops among all MLB outfielders this year, with the DRS tally tied with Michael A. Taylor. Varsho has seen time at all three outfield positions in his time in the big leagues thus far, giving the Jays plenty of flexibility in how he fits into their alignments.

The Blue Jays have largely been focused on run prevention this offseason, adding Chris Bassitt to their rotation, Erik Swanson to their bullpen and defensive specialist Kevin Kiermaier to their outfield. Now with Varsho, they’ve continued down that run prevention path by adding the best defensive outfielder of 2022. Varsho isn’t merely limited to being a glove-only contributor, however. He hit 27 home runs this year and stole 16 bases. He finished the season with a .235/.302/.443 batting line, good enough for a wRC+ of 106, indicating he was 6% above league average. Those contributions put together amounted to 4.6 wins above replacement for the year, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

This move, and their other moves this offseason, have resulted in righties Gurriel and Teoscar Hernández being swapped out for lefties Kiermaier and Varsho. Gurriel and Hernandez are more productive at the plate but both are generally regarded as subpar defenders, while Kiermaier and Varsho are generally the inverse, though Varsho took a big step forward at the plate this year. Varsho and Kiermaier should slot into an outfield mix that also includes George Springer and Whit Merrifield. While last year’s alignment saw Springer as the top defensive option, flanked by two bat-first teammates, he now seems like the third best defender in Toronto’s outfield mix.

For the Diamondbacks, they are acquiring one of the top prospects in the sport, regardless of position, but certainly one of the top catching prospects. Moreno, 23 in February, is considered the No. 3 prospect in the game by both Baseball America and FanGraphs. He made his MLB debut in 2022 and carried himself well in over his first 73 plate appearances, hitting .319/.356/.377 for a wRC+ of 113. Spending most of the year in Triple-A, he hit .315/.386/.420 for a wRC+ of 120. Though the power part of his game could be lacking, all reports point to him being an excellent defender who has keen bat-to-ball skills. That’s borne out by his 16.9% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year and 11% rate in his MLB debut.

The club has used Carson Kelly, 28, as its primary catcher over the past four seasons, who has proved inconsistent in that time. His 2019 and 2021 seasons were both above average at the plate, as he hit double-digit home runs and walk rates, leading to a wRC+ of 107 in the former and 103 in the latter. However, his 2020 and 2022 seasons were on the low side, with the walks and the power both dipping. He posted a wRC+ of 70 in 2020 and just 73 in 2022. Defensively, he’s generally considered around average, with DRS have graded him at exactly zero thus far in his career.

Kelly still has two years of arbitration control remaining and likely has the catching job for now, given Moreno’s youth and limited experience. Moreno will also require some time to get to know Arizona’s pitching staff. But as Moreno continues to develop, it’s possible that Kelly will get squeezed out in time and become a trade chip himself before he reaches the open market.

As they subtract from their multitude of left-handed hitting outfielders, the Diamondbacks are bringing in a right-hander for more balance in Gurriel. The 29-year-old has spent the past five seasons with the Jays and has a career batting line of .285/.329/.468 and a wRC+ of 115. He doesn’t come with a noticeable platoon split, as he has an even 115 wRC+ against both righties and lefties. That makes him perfectly capable of playing every day for the Snakes. He is in his final year of control before becoming a free agent, which doesn’t make him a long-term solution in the desert, but he should give the club some time to continue to evaluate young players like Carroll and Thomas. If those younger players take steps forward and command everyday jobs and/or the Diamondbacks aren’t in contention in the middle of 2023, Gurriel would make for an intriguing trade candidate.

Defensively, Gurriel broke in as an infielder but was moved to left field in 2019 and has largely been there since, apart from the occasional turn at first base. Reviews on his glovework are mixed, as he has a +4 in the outfield from DRS, but a -4.7 from UZR and a -16 OAA. That limits his contributions somewhat but his bat has been above average in each of his five seasons thus far.

Financially, the Jays will be saving a bit of money on this deal as Gurriel will be making $5.4MM in 2023, his final year before free agency. Varsho, meanwhile, has four years of control remaining but has qualified for arbitration this winter as a Super Two player. He just squeaked in on that one, as his two years and 128 days of service time are an exact match for this year’s cutoff. He’s projected for a salary of $2.8MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and will get three further arb raises through 2026. Moreno, meanwhile, has yet to reach arbitration with just a couple of months of time in the big leagues thus far, giving the Diamondbacks six further years of control over his services.

The slight financial difference won’t matter much to the Diamondbacks but could have ramifications for the Jays. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s competitive balance tax figure as just a hair over the lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. Those numbers are unofficial and will surely change with future moves throughout the offseason and during the actual season. The arbitration salaries are also just estimates and will have an impact on the tally once they are cemented. But if the Jays continue to hover right around the luxury tax line, the small savings could determine which side of that line they finish on.

In the end, both clubs addressed their needs by dealing from positions of strength. The Jays acquired an all-around player in Varsho who can help them this year and in the future. In order to do so, they’ve subtracted from their prospect capital and catching surplus, as well as dealing an impending free agent in Gurriel. For the Diamondbacks, they’ve sent out a solid contributor but should still have a great outfield without him, and they’ve also loaded their farm for future success. They now have four of the top 20 prospects in baseball, with Moreno at #3 at Baseball America, followed by Carroll at #5, shortstop Jordan Lawlar at #11 and outfielder Druw Jones at #19.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that the Jays were close to landing Varsho. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported a deal was in place that involved Varsho and Moreno. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first had the involvement of Gurriel.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Lourdes Gurriel Undergoes Wrist Surgery, Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training

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7:40 pm: Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins says the surgery is related to Gurriel’s hamate bone, per McGrath.

5:46 pm: Per Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic, Blue Jays outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. underwent surgery on his left wrist today. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Gurriel spent 2022 as Toronto’s primary left fielder, slashing .291/.343/.400 (114 wRC+) in 121 games this season. With just 5 home runs in 2022, Gurriel saw his power evaporate this season. Gurriel had hit at least 11 home runs in every season of his career prior to this year, with 21 homers in 2021 being the most he had hit in a season, and his second time eclipsing 20 home runs in a season. The news that he had been dealing with a wrist issue this season may provide an explanation for this power outage.

While his power dipped in 2022, Gurriel’s season wasn’t a total loss. He still posted the 51st lowest strikeout rate in the majors among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances along with the best wRC+ in a full season of his career, though he fared better during the shortened 2020 season (134 wRC+) as well as during his 84 games played in 2019 (125 wRC+).

Headed into the offseason, Gurriel’s hold on the everyday left field job in Toronto already seemed tenuous, with the outfield being a clear place where the Blue Jays could improve their offense going into 2023. With Gurriel expected to be ready for spring training, there’s little reason to think the surgery changes the front office’s calculus, but it’s still likely that Toronto looks for upgrades at the outfield corners this offseason, with the likes of David Peralta, Joc Pederson, and Mitch Haniger among potential options.

Regardless of any potential additions to Toronto’s outfield, Gurriel will earn $5.4MM for his age 29 season in 2023, the final year of his seven year, $22MM contract with the Blue Jays, after which he will be eligible for free agency.

Blue Jays Place Lourdes Gurriel Jr. On Injured List

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The Blue Jays announced that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 8, after straining his left hamstring. Infielder Otto López has been recalled from Triple-A Buffalo to take the vacated active roster spot.

Gurriel suffered the injury attempting to beat out a throw at first base during Wednesday’s game against the Orioles. The Jays used yesterday’s off day to evaluate Gurriel, and it seems his absence could extend beyond the mandated week and a half. The team informed reporters (including Keegan Matheson of MLB.com and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet) the strain is “moderate” and suggested he could miss more than the minimum amount of time.

The 28-year-old has been the Jays primary left fielder this season. He’s having a decent year, posting a .291/.343/.400 line across 493 plate appearances. Gurriel’s five home runs aren’t the prototypical power numbers of a corner outfielder, but he’s ripped 32 doubles and is putting the ball in play at a strong rate. His 16.3% strikeout rate is around six points below the league average, a key reason Gurriel’s hitting over .290.

The Jays are turning to Raimel Tapia in left field tonight. They’ve got a handful of outfield options on the roster, with Tapia, Jackie Bradley Jr., Cavan Biggio and Bradley Zimmer from the left side and Whit Merrifield and López hitting right-handed. Interim skipper John Schneider figures to play platoon advantages in the corners, while star George Springer has center field accounted for.

Toronto enters play Friday six games back of the Yankees in the AL East, occupying third place in the division. They hold the final AL Wild Card spot, within two games of both the Rays and Mariners while holding a 4 1/2 game cushion over the Orioles. The Jays will have to continue their battle for a playoff spot without their left fielder for at least the next nine days.

Blue Jays Notes: Pearson, Grichuk, Moreno

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Toronto’s top decision-makers talked with reporters to discuss a number of ways they hope to improve upon a 91-win club that came incredibly close to a playoff berth. While a good deal of attention has been paid to who the Blue Jays stand to lose this offseason, executives are rightfully pointing to improvement from within as a reason for optimism.

Chief among those internal improvements is getting a healthy season out of highly touted right-hander Nate Pearson. First he’ll have to recover from offseason surgery to repair a sports hernia that plagued the 25-year-old’s most recent season. Fortunately, GM Ross Atkins expects the surgery to be a blip in the pitcher’s offseason routine and won’t impact his Spring Training availability, stating “He should be fine — he should not be disrupted at all” (per Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling).

Anything resembling a full return to health for Pearson will surely be a welcome sight for Toronto brass, as the talented pitcher has tossed just 33 innings at the highest level owing to groin and elbow injuries. These recurring maladies very well may have contributed to what’s been a rough Major League tenure so far, as evidenced by a career 5.18 ERA and bloated 16.5% walk rate. Toronto will accordingly proceed with some caution, though Atkins reiterated his hope for Pearson to build his strength back up as a starter and provide “the impact of someone that can punch people out and pitch deeper and deeper into games.”

Other improvements, Atkins notes (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi), can come in the form of simply giving left-handed batters more playing time. For context, Toronto lefties stepped to the plate less than any other team last season, combining to produce a .653 OPS that ranked 28th in baseball. While both Atkins and president Mark Shapiro were tight-lipped about players who could help strike a better lineup balance, the latter did speak to the ability of trades that could “take an addition by subtraction.”

Speculatively, any left-handed addition could come from the trade of oft-rumored trade candidates Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk, both of whom hit from the right side. While Grichuk’s underperformance this past season (.241/.281/.423 through 149 games) — to say nothing of the remaining two years and $20.7MM on his contract — hampers his value, Davidi does note the outfielder drew interest at the most recent trade deadline. Achieving more left-handed opportunities in the lineup might not stem directly from a return in any hypothetical Grichuk trade but may be done so by simply freeing up the at-bats of a previously entrenched right-handed hitter.

The Jays also boast an enviable crop of Major League-ready catchers in their system and could subtract from this group to achieve Shapiro’s aforementioned addition. Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk provided strong offensive production from the position last year, posting nearly identical OPS marks of .772 and .764 from the right side. But either could prove expendable given the similar production of the other.

Further crowding the catching picture is the presence of prospect Gabriel Moreno, who had a huge showing in limited action at Double-A this year and continues to mash in the Arizona Fall League. Then again, farm director Gil Kim notes Moreno has done “a lot of work at third base at the Player Development Complex. While that’s not his primary position, it is an option that maybe down the road will be in play. Right now we’re focused on catching but as we’ve seen, maximizing versatility is huge.” With Moreno also batting from the right side, it’s possible his presence affects the status of other righties around the infield, like breakout infielder Santiago Espinal. Whatever transactions are made to address the Jays’ perceived lack of lineup balance and desire to build on last year’s record, the front office surely has room to maneuver with both Major League trade chips and payroll space at their disposal.

COVID Notes: 4/12/21

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The latest on coronavirus situations around baseball…

  • The Blue Jays have activated Lourdes Gurriel Jr. from the COVID-19 injured list, the team announced.  Gurriel left Friday’s game and spent two days on the COVID-IL due to some side effects after receiving a vaccine.  With Gurriel and Robbie Ray (elbow) also rejoining the roster from the 10-day injured list, infielder Santiago Espinal and right-handed reliever Joel Payamps were optioned to the Jays’ alternate training site.
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