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Liam Hendriks

Red Sox Sign Liam Hendriks

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Feb. 20, 10:37am: Hendriks will earn $2MM in 2024 and $6MM in 2025, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. There’s also a $2MM buyout on the 2026 option, which is valued at $12MM. The $10MM worth of incentives in the deal are all tied to Hendriks’ 2025 performance, Cotillo adds. Half of that incentives package is tied to games finished, and the other half is tied to Hendriks’ total innings pitched. There are no incentives tied to the 2024 season.

10:25am:: The Red Sox have formally announced the signing of Hendriks to a two-year contract with a mutual option for a third season. This weekend’s trade of righty John Schreiber to the Royals opened a 40-man spot in Boston, so a corresponding move for Hendriks isn’t necessary.

Feb. 19: The Red Sox are reportedly in agreement with right-hander Liam Hendriks on a two-year deal that will guarantee him $10MM, though he can earn as much as $20MM via incentives. There’s also a 2026 mutual option for the ALIGND Sports Agency client. The deal is pending a physical.

Hendriks, 35, was the AL’s Comeback Player of the Year award winner in 2023 after he managed to return to the mound five months after he began undergoing treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in early January before announcing that he was cancer-free in April. Unfortunately, Hendriks’ amazing comeback was cut short after just five appearances due to a bout of elbow inflammation, which ended up leading to the veteran undergoing Tommy John surgery back in August. Hendriks’ lengthy impending rehab led the White Sox to decline their club option on his services for the 2024 season, allowing him to hit the open market back in November.

While 2023 was something of a lost season for Hendriks, he’s long been one of the most dominant relievers in the sport. The right-hander debuted as a starting pitcher with the Twins back in 2011, though he struggled in the role for Minnesota, Kansas City, and Toronto with a 5.92 ERA in 39 appearances across four seasons before the Blue Jays decided to move him to the bullpen full time in 2015. The role change did wonders for Hendriks’ performance, as he pitched to a strong 2.92 ERA with an even better 2.14 FIP across 64 2/3 innings of work for the club that year. That season, Hendriks struck out a solid 27.2% of batters faced while allowing free passes at a minimal 4.2% clip.

The Blue Jays didn’t retain Hendriks after his breakout campaign, instead dealing him to the Oakland A’s prior to the 2016 season. During his first few years in Oakland, Hendriks came back down to earth a bit, pitching to relatively middling results out of the club’s bullpen with a 4.01 ERA and a 3.24 FIP across 152 2/3 innings of work from 2016 to 2018. Hendriks returned to form in 2019, however. When then-A’s closer Blake Treinen struggled to a 4.91 ERA during the 2019 season, Hendriks took over the closer’s role and did not look back with an incredible 1.80 ERA with a 1.78 FIP in 85 innings of work.

The righty continued that strong performance in 2020, his final year of club control. He headed into the open market after racking up 14 more saves in the shortened season, posting a 1.78 ERA thanks to a huge 40.2% strikeout rate and tiny 3.3% walk rate. He landed a three-year, $54MM deal with the White Sox with a complicated club option for 2024. The salary and buyout on that option were both $15MM, though the buyout would spread the payouts over a 10-year period.

He continued to serve as a lockdown closer for the first two years of that deal before, as mentioned, going through various challenges in the third. With Hendriks looking at missing at least the first few months of 2024, the White Sox went for the $15MM opt-out instead of the $15MM salary. Despite those matching figures, they will save money in long run by holding that money, collecting interest on it and paying it out later when inflation has reduced its value.

Hendriks went into the open market unable to market himself for much of the 2024 season. He is targeting a trade deadline return from last year’s surgery, though that would be on the ambitious end of typical Tommy John recovery timelines since he just went under the knife a year ago.

It would obviously be great news if Hendriks is back on the mound in August or September but the signing for the Red Sox is more about 2025. The club has Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin as their top relievers this year but both are impending free agents and each have been in trade rumors this offseason. The club seems to have little hesitation about subtracting from this year’s relief corps, as they recently traded John Schreiber and flipped Nick Robertson earlier in the winter as part of the Tyler O’Neill deal.

Overall, the club’s offseason has been more focused on the future than the present. The move for O’Neill and the signing of Lucas Giolito were nice adds for this year, but they’ve also been seemingly trying to keep payroll fairly low and have sent out players with minimal club control like Chris Sale and Alex Verdugo. While they’re not exactly tearing things down to the studs as part of a deep rebuild, they do seem to be aware that they need to think about the long term after a couple of last place finishes in the A.L. East in past two seasons.

Signing Hendriks fits into that, as he will upgrade next year’s roster more than this one’s. There’s also some financial wiggle room due to their relatively modest winter. Roster Resource pegs their current payroll at $181MM, even after the Hendriks signing. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they were twice were over $230MM a few years back and at $207MM two years ago. RR also has their competitive balance tax now at $202MM, nowhere near the $237MM base threshold of the tax.

If the Sox find themselves in contention later this year, perhaps Hendriks can come back from his rehab and join their bullpen for the stretch run. But for next year, he potentially gives the club an elite closer at a relative modest salary, providing an early solution to the departures of Jansen and Martin.

Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive first reported the sides were nearing an agreement and that Hendriks was present at the club’s Spring Training facility in Florida. Buster Olney of ESPN first had the two years and $10MM guarantee. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relayed the 2026 mutual option. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the potential to get to $20MM via incentives.

Liam Hendriks Weighing Multiple Offers

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Three-time All-Star reliever Liam Hendriks is weighing multiple offers from interested clubs, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Hendriks, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery and aiming to return to action around the trade deadline this season, has set a deadline of tomorrow to sign with a team, per Passan. If he doesn’t sign by tomorrow — presumably meaning, if a team doesn’t meet whatever asking price he’s set — he’ll rehab on his own for the next several months and look to sign with a club closer to his return date.

Hendriks turned 35 last week. His ascension from a fringe arm riding the DFA carousel back in 2013-15 to one of the sport’s premier relievers is one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent memory. Hendriks was designated for assignment four times and placed on waivers without a public DFA on another occasion and traded in three different minor swaps along the way. In 2018, the A’s not only designated him for assignment for the fourth (and final) time in his career — they succeeded in passing Hendriks through waivers unclaimed.

Hendriks posted solid but unremarkable numbers as a low-leverage reliever for the A’s from 2016-18 but returned from that outright in 2019 as an entirely different pitcher. He scrapped his sinker, leaned far more heavily into a four-seamer that had jumped by more than 1.5 mph in average velocity, and became a two-pitch powerhouse who flummoxed opponents with his four-seamer/slider combo.

That devastating pair of pitches quickly catapulted Hendriks to the ranks of baseball’s elite bullpen arms. From 2019-22, he pitched 239 innings with 114 saves, an overwhelming 38.8% strikeout rate and a pristine 5.1% walk rate. In addition to his trio of All-Star nods, Hendriks twice won the Mariano Rivera American League Reliever of the Year Award and inked a huge three-year, $54MM contract with the White Sox.

The 2023 season brought about a sobering bit of disheartening news, as Hendriks announced last offseason that he’d been diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma and would immediately embark on a wave of chemotherapy treatment. Just three and a half months later, Hendriks triumphantly announced that he was cancer-free. He began a rehab assignment in early May and returned to the Majors on May 29 — remarkably less than four months after making his original announcement.

It was a feel-good story for White Sox fans amid a disastrous start to the season, but the good vibes didn’t last long. Hendriks was placed back on the injured list just two weeks later, this time due to inflammation in his right elbow. While the issue was initially believed to be relatively minor — Hendriks at first expressed optimism he’d be back in a matter of weeks — damage to his ulnar collateral ligament was either discovered shortly thereafter or developed over the course of his rehab. There’d been no prior public indication that surgery was even a consideration, but the Sox announced on Aug. 2 that Hendriks was slated for Tommy John surgery.

Hendriks’ track record is strong enough that he ought to be a clear candidate for a big league deal — likely a two-year arrangement that’ll allow him the opportunity to rehab with a team’s medical staff for the bulk of this season with an eye toward either a second-half return or a 2025 return. This type of contract is relatively common, though the fact that Hendriks is entering his age-35 season perhaps complicates the scenario to some extent.

There’s not a team in baseball that couldn’t use a healthy Hendriks in its bullpen. That won’t be an option until late August at the earliest and perhaps not until Opening Day 2025, depending on how his rehab progresses, but the track record alone should lead to plenty of interest.

The Top Unsigned Right-Handed Relievers

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about two weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. Over the past week, MLBTR has already taken a look at the remaining catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops, center fielders, corner outfielders, designated hitters,  starting pitchers and left-handed relievers. We’ll now wrap things up with a look at the right-handed relievers.

  • Phil Maton: Acquired from Cleveland in the 2021 Myles Straw trade, Maton has quietly been very effective over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he has made 135 appearances for the Astros with a 3.42 earned run average. His 26.5% strikeout rate in that time is a few ticks above league average while his 8.8% walk rate is right around par. He’s been excellent at limiting hard contact, as seen on his Statcast page. His 23.5% hard hit rate last year was actually the best in the majors among qualified pitchers, while his average exit velocity was in the top five. In 2022, he was in the top 10 in both those categories as well. He missed the 2022 postseason due to injury but made six scoreless appearances for the Astros in last year’s playoffs. He has received reported interest this offseason from teams like the Phillies, Yankees and Cardinals.
  • Ryne Stanek: Another former Astro, Stanek has made 186 appearances over the past three years with a 2.90 ERA. He has struck out 27% of batters faced but also given out walks at a 12.2% clip. That strikeout rate fell to 23.9% in 2023, but he also cut his walk rate to 9.9%, a career low for him. He has reportedly received interest from the Cubs, Red Sox and Mets this winter.
  • Ryan Brasier: The 2023 season was inconsistent for Brasier, a reflection of his career overall. After a stint in Japan, he returned to North America with the Red Sox in 2018, posting a 1.60 ERA. From there, his season-by-season ERA went to 4.85, 3.96, 1.50, 5.78 and then 3.02 in the most recent campaign. That 2023 ERA involved a 7.29 mark with the Red Sox and then a tiny 0.70 figure with the Dodgers. When combining his time with both of those clubs last year, his peripherals ended up pretty close to his career numbers. He struck out 23.5% of batters faced and gave out walks to 8% of them last year, near his career rates of 24.1% and 7.4%. Since he finished the year on such a strong note, he has received a fair amount of interest this winter, with clubs like the Cardinals, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, Orioles, Rangers and Yankees connected to him at various points.
  • Jesse Chavez: Though he’s now 40 years old, Chavez doesn’t seem to be slowing down. He made 36 appearances for Atlanta last year with a 1.56 ERA. He surely had a bit of help from the baseball gods there, with a .273 batting average on balls in play and 81.2% strand rate, but the peripherals were still strong. He struck out 27.1% of batters faced, walked 8.3% and kept 51.7% of balls in play on the ground. His 3.05 FIP and 3.35 SIERA were much higher than his ERA but still represent solid work. He missed about three months of last season after being hit in the leg by a comebacker but was back on the mound before the end of the year.
  • Liam Hendriks: If Hendriks were healthy right now, he would be on the top of this list. He cemented himself as one of the best closers in baseball a few years ago and racked up 115 saves over the past five seasons. He has a 2.32 ERA since the start of 2019, having struck out 38.3% of batters faced while walking just 5.1% of them. Unfortunately, 2023 was an incredibly challenging year for the right-hander, as he first had to undergo treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. After winning that battle and returning to the mound, he required Tommy John surgery in early August. Since the rehab for that procedure generally goes beyond one year, it’s questionable whether he will be able to pitch at all in the upcoming campaign, though he has said he’s targeting a return around the trade deadline. He can likely find a two-year deal somewhere, with the signing club understanding that they will have a better shot of getting return on their investment in 2025.

Honorable mentions: Jay Jackson, Brad Boxberger, Shintaro Fujinami, Derek Law, Mark Melancon, Matt Barnes

Liam Hendriks Targeting Trade Deadline Return From Tommy John Surgery

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Free agent right-hander Liam Hendriks underwent Tommy John surgery in early August and is hoping to be back on the mound roughly one year after going under the knife. He tells Scott Merkin of MLB.com that he’s targeting next year’s trade deadline as a return goal. It appears he has had conversations with some teams but nothing is imminent in terms of getting a deal done.

Hendriks, 35 in February, is wrapping up a challenging year dominated by off-field concerns. He announced in January that he would be starting treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He completed his chemotherapy treatment in April and announced that he was declared free of cancer shortly after that. He began a rehab assignment in early May and was activated from the injured list by the end of that month. Just a couple of weeks later, he landed on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and required TJS in early August, having thrown just five big league innings for the year.

As part of the deal he originally signed with the White Sox, they had a $15MM club option for 2024 that came with a $15MM buyout. The difference, however, was the timing of those equal payments. They decided to buy him out and pay him $1.5MM in 10 annual installments as opposed to picking it up, which would involve paying the entire amount during the 2024 campaign.

Now a free agent, Hendriks will be a long-term play for any interested club, as he’ll miss at least the first few months of the upcoming season. Any club that signs him would be hoping for a late-season boost to the bullpen or would perhaps just be thinking about 2025. One of those teams is the Cubs, with Hendriks relaying that they reached out, but it appears those talks were more preliminary than anything.

“There’s been nothing substantial about any of the conversations we’ve had,” he said. “But they were one of the teams that reached out pretty early on.” It seems other clubs are taking a similar wait-and-see approach. “Obviously, we are in no rush. My timeline hasn’t changed. I’m not going to be ready in April. Teams are making sure they really get their main part of 2024 set up. We’ve had some clubs call and be like, ‘Once it heats up, let us know.’”

His ultimate market might come down to who still has a bit of money left in their budget after the other free agents are signed and Spring Training approaches. But whoever does get him to put pen to paper will obviously be banking on his tremendous run as an elite closer, prior to his mostly lost season in 2023. From 2019 to 2022, he posted a 2.26 earned run average over 226 appearances, racking up 114 saves in the process. He struck out 38.8% of batters faced while walking just 5.1% of them.

If he can get back to anything close to that kind of performance, he would upgrade any bullpen in the league. But for now, it seems he has to wait for things to progress. His target is on the shorter end of the typical TJS return but he could be an intriguing wild card in the 2024 campaign even if he misses that goal by a month or so. On MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents post, Hendriks was predicted to secure a two-year, $12MM contract.

White Sox To Decline Option On Liam Hendriks

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The White Sox are declining their club option on right-hander Liam Hendriks, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Instead of retaining him for 2024 with a $15MM salary, they will pay him a $15MM buyout but spread over the next ten years in annual instalments of $1.5MM. The righty underwent Tommy John surgery in August and is likely to miss the 2024 season.

Hendriks, 35 in February, signed with the Sox going into 2021. The three-year deal came with a three-year, $54MM guarantee. He would make $39MM over the first three years, with the $15MM option/buyout for 2024. He continued to pitch well over the first two years of the deal, racking up 75 saves over those two seasons with a 2.66 ERA, 39.4% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate.

But 2023 provided Hendriks with some significant challenges. He was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in the offseason and had to miss the start of the year undergoing treatment. By the end of April, he was cancer free and began ramping up for a return to the club. He was activated in late May, making five appearances before landing on the injured list due to elbow inflammation, which eventually led him requiring Tommy John surgery.

Since he’s likely to miss the upcoming campaign, it’s understandable that the Sox would take the buyout. Though it’s the same amount as the salary of the option, it’s easier to pay it over 10 years than in one, especially with inflation reducing the value of currency over time. Also, there’s no injured list between the World Series and Spring Training, meaning Hendriks would require a roster spot all winter if the option were picked up. By taking the buyout, the Sox free up a spot for the coming months.

Now Hendriks will head to the open market and be free to sign with any club. Though he still has a lengthy rehab process in front of him, players in this situation often sign two-year deals. The players gets some cash to cover the rehab process while the club gets control over one post-rehab season.

Righty Tommy Kahnle signed one such contract when he and the Dodgers agreed to a two-year deal going into 2021. Kahnle was guaranteed $4.75MM plus incentives. He didn’t have the same track record as Hendriks and that winter’s market was generally deflated after the lost revenues of 2020, so it seems fair to expect Hendriks to be able to top that guarantee.

White Sox Claim Deivi Garcia

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2:34pm: The White Sox announced that they have indeed claimed Garcia off outright waivers. He’s been optioned to Triple-A Charlotte. Liam Hendriks moves from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

1:27pm: The White Sox have claimed right-hander Deivi Garcia off waivers from the Yankees, reports Erik Boland of Newsday. The Yankees had designated the former top prospect for assignment earlier in the week. The teams have not yet announced the move (or, in Chicago’s case, a corresponding 40-man transaction).

Garcia, 24, was considered one of the sport’s top pitching prospects not long ago, ranking on most top-100 lists prior to both the 2020 and 2021 seasons. The right-hander blitzed through the lower minors after signing as an amateur out of the Dominican Republic, reaching the Double-A level as a 19-year-old back in 2018. He had success both in High-A and Double-A the following year before being hit hard in Triple-A, but struggling at the minors’ top level as a 20-year-old facing vastly older competition hardly stood as any kind of red flag.

The canceled 2020 minor league season could well have impacted Garcia more than many other prospects. With no minor league games in which to play, he was rushed to the big leagues as a 21-year-old, turning in a 4.98 ERA in six starts (34 1/3 innings). His 22.6% strikeout rate and 4.1% walk rate were both encouraging, but Garcia was tagged for six home runs in that debut effort and struggled to strand runners once he’d allowed them to reach.

As with his 2019 struggles as one of the youngest players at the Triple-A level, however, Garcia’s lackluster 2020 results weren’t considered particularly damning. Jumping to the big leagues as a 21-year-old with only 40 innings of Triple-A experience is hardly an easy task, and at insofar as his ability to miss bats and limit walks, he more than held his own. The next two years, however, told another story.

From 2021-22, Garcia logged only 8 1/3 big league innings. In 2021, that was at least partially due to a lack of opportunity. The ’21 Yankees received 29 or more starts from each of Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery and Jameson Taillon, with another 18 from Domingo German, 16 from Corey Kluber and 14 from Nestor Cortes. There weren’t many extra starts to go around, but Garcia’s performance didn’t necessarily merit much of a look anyway. He was torched for a 6.85 ERA in 90 2/3 innings at Triple-A that season, and his 2022 results weren’t any better; Garcia logged a combined 6.89 ERA in 64 innings between Double-A and Triple-A in ’22. He didn’t pitch in the Majors that season.

It’s been largely the same in 2023. A move to the bullpen in Triple-A hasn’t been much help, evidenced by a 5.67 ERA and sky-high 14.6% walk rate in 48 innings. Garcia allowed just one run in 5 2/3 big league frames earlier in the year, but he did so with more walks issued (four) than strikeouts (three). Command has emerged as a major problem for the right-hander, who’s doled out a free pass to 14.2% of his opponents en route to a 6.52 ERA in 214 career innings at Triple-A.

There were always some concerns about the manner in which Garcia would be able to handle a starter’s workload. Listed at 5’9″ and 165 pounds, he’s considerably slighter in frame than the overwhelming majority of big league starters. Garcia indeed has spent time on the injured list in each of the past three seasons, and his fastball velocity has fluctuated accordingly. He averaged 95.1 mph this year in a pair of relief outings — a notable bump from the 92.1 mph he averaged as a starter in the Majors from 2020-21.

Whether the White Sox plan to use Garcia as a starter or reliever isn’t clear at this point, but he’s spent the bulk of the ’23 season coming out of the Scranton bullpen. For a Chicago team that’s already waved the white flag on the 2023 season, there’s plenty of sense in scooping up a former top prospect and seeing if a change of scenery can do him any good. Garcia is in his final minor league option year, meaning he can be sent to Triple-A for the remainder of the current season without needing to go through waivers. However, he’ll be out of options next spring, so the Sox will need to either keep him on the Opening Day roster or designate him for assignment themselves — if he’s even able to stick on the 40-man roster that long.

The White Sox currently have baseball’s fourth-worst record, which gave them waiver priority over all but three teams. Each of the A’s, Royals and Rockies apparently passed on placing a claim on Garcia. The Rays were among the other teams to place a claim on Garcia today, tweets Boland, though Tampa Bay has the third-best record in MLB (and thus the third-lowest waiver priority).

Liam Hendriks Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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The White Sox announced this evening that star closer Liam Hendriks has undergone Tommy John surgery. According to the club, he’ll require a 12-14 month recovery timeline.

Hendriks has been on the injured list since the second week of June with what the team initially called elbow inflammation. There’d been no prior indication surgery was under consideration. As of a couple weeks ago, the righty had been throwing simulated games. He apparently suffered a setback during that rehab work and will now miss the majority or all of next season.

It’s a disheartening blow. Hendriks’ quick return from an offseason non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma diagnosis has been one of the best stories of the 2023 season. He announced his diagnosis in early January. Within roughly three and a half months, he’d completed chemotherapy and been declared cancer-free. He was remarkably back on a major league mound by May 29.

Certainly, the revelation he’d require elbow surgery pales in comparison to the life-threatening news he’d gotten (and overcome) just months before. Yet it’s an obviously tough development for his playing career. Hendriks turns 35 next February. There’s a good chance he’s unable to return to pitching until his age-36 campaign.

Between the late start to the season and the subsequent elbow injury, the three-time All-Star only made five MLB appearances this year. He was one of the top handful of relievers in the sport between 2019-22. Hendriks broke out late in his career with Oakland and maintained that elite performance for his first two seasons with the Sox. Over that four-year stretch, he posted a 2.26 ERA with an elite 38.8% strikeout rate across 239 innings.

With this revelation, it’s possible Hendriks has thrown his last pitch for Chicago. His three-year, $54MM free agent contract contained a $15MM club option for 2024. The deal came with a matching buyout figure — it was built in largely as an accounting measure to frontload the contract’s competitive balance tax hit — that’ll now come into play. If the Sox buy Hendriks out, they’ll be able to defer that payment over the next 10 years.

That’s the course of action they’ll almost certainly take. With Hendriks unlikely to pitch in 2024 regardless, there’s little reason for the Sox not to pay the $15MM in installments. Hendriks figures to return to free agency next winter, where he could field two-year offers from teams with an eye towards the 2025 campaign.

Latest On White Sox’s Deadline Plans

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The White Sox could be one of the most interesting sellers of this year’s deadline. Chicago lost their last two heading into the All-Star Break and sit 16 games under .500 at 38-54. They’ve fallen eight games back of Cleveland in the AL Central, in which they now occupy fourth place.

Chicago has a number of players who are relatively close to free agency whom they could market in trade. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Sox are prepared to seriously consider offers on all but four players: center fielder Luis Robert Jr., ace Dylan Cease, first baseman Andrew Vaughn and left fielder Eloy Jiménez. Heyman suggests that while no one on the roster might be categorically untouchable, Chicago’s “clear intention” is to retain those four players.

Last month, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote that Chicago was telling rival clubs they were focused on retaining players under control beyond this season. Genuinely considering offers on everyone aside from Cease, Robert, Vaughn and Jiménez would represent a change in direction, although the Sox would still resist moving any of their most valuable long-term assets.

Chicago has a number of likely impending free agents who are apparent trade candidates. Starter Lucas Giolito and relievers Keynan Middleton and Reynaldo López are pure rentals; all three appeared among MLBTR’s top 20 trade candidates last week. So did starter Lance Lynn, whose contract contains an $18MM team option that appears likely to be bought out for $1MM. Reliever Joe Kelly, controllable for next season via $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout), also ranked highly on that list.

The Sox have a few more players with relatively pricy 2024 options. Closer Liam Hendriks has a $15MM option that comes with a matching buyout figure. That seems likely to be exercised, as buying Hendriks out would only allow the Sox to defer that payment over a 10-year span. Tim Anderson’s deal contains a $14MM team option or a $1MM buyout. Anderson is having a terrible season (.223/.259/.263 over 290 plate appearances) that could at least force the organization to reconsider an option that looked like an easy call a few months ago. The Mike Clevinger deal contains a $12MM mutual provision which the club will probably buy out for $4MM.

Yasmani Grandal and Elvis Andrus are the other impending free agents on the roster. Grandal is hitting at a decent .251/.317/.374 clip, but trades of catchers midseason are fairly rare and he’s making an $18.25MM salary that’d be difficult to move. Andrus isn’t producing, hitting .208/.286/.266.

The White Sox considering offers on anyone in that group isn’t too surprising. The majority are unlikely to be on the South Side beyond this season. It’d be an inopportune time to deal Anderson or Hendriks (currently on the injured list with elbow inflammation), although the front office could look into it if they’re contemplating declining next year’s option on either player.

Giolito, in particular, seems all but assured to change uniforms. MLBTR’s #1 trade candidate has tossed 112 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball across 19 starts. He’s striking out over a quarter of opponents and looks the part of a durable #2/3 starter on a playoff team. He’s on track for a nine-figure contract that’d be larger than any in White Sox’s franchise history. Chicago should get more in trade this summer than the value of the draft choice they’d receive if they allow him to depart in free agency after declining a qualifying offer.

Heyman suggests the Reds and Rangers could check in Giolito. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has gone on record about a desire to add pitching. The NL Central-leading club is very likely to upgrade a starting staff that’s presently without Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Texas has gotten strong results out of their rotation but could look to add depth as they try to maintain a two-game lead in the AL West. They’ve reportedly checked in on Lynn as well, though Giolito would be the more impactful and costlier (in terms of prospect capital) addition.

One controllable player whom the Sox seem at least somewhat willing to consider moving: starter Michael Kopech. Heyman writes the Sox would be more amenable to relinquishing Kopech than anyone from the Robert, Cease, Vaughn, Jiménez group.

While the 6’3″ right-hander is only in his second full season as a big league starter, he’s not all that far off free agency. Kopech will soon surpass four years of MLB service and is eligible for arbitration through the 2025 campaign — the same control window as Cease. He’s playing this season on a $2.05MM salary.

Kopech landed on the 15-day injured list last week with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He’s generally expected back not long after the Break, however, so he could have multiple starts before the August 1 deadline. If he’s in form, he’d surely generate interest.

Through 16 starts and 86 innings, Kopech has worked to a 4.08 ERA. He’s striking out 26% of opponents on a solid 11.4% swinging strike percentage while averaging over 95 MPH on his fastball. There’s clearly plenty of promise with the 27-year-old righty, but he has not yet established himself as the top-of-the-rotation arm some evaluators had envisioned. That’s largely due to spotty control, as his 13.1% walk rate is the highest of any pitcher with at least 15 starts.

There’s obviously far less urgency for general manager Rick Hahn and his staff to move Kopech than with any of the impending free agents. Chicago isn’t going to embark on a full teardown and rebuild, so they figure to hold firm to a lofty asking price on their controllable mid-rotation starter. Still, the front office seems more amenable than they were a few weeks ago to consider moving players besides their collection of talented rentals.

Chicago Notes: Stroman, Hendriks, Clevinger

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Cubs ace Marcus Stroman exited his start against the Cardinals in London this morning after just 3 1/3 innings of work due to a blister on his right index finger. Fortunately, as noted by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, the injury is not currently considered to be particularly serious. In conversation with reporters following the game, Stroman pointed out that this wasn’t the first time he’s dealt with blisters in his career, likely referencing his 2018 trip to the IL with a blister on his right middle finger. That stint on the shelf ultimately lasted two weeks, but Stroman says that he’s optimistic he’ll be able to make his next start, which would likely be slated for next weekend’s series against the Guardians.

It’s hard to overstate Stroman’s importance in keeping the Cubs afloat this season. After today’s loss to the Cardinals in London, the north siders sport a 37-39 record that leaves them just three games back of the Reds for the division title in a weak NL Central. That the club remains within striking distance in the division can be attributed heavily to the performance of Stroman, whose 2.28 ERA entering play today led the NL, while his 196 ERA+ led the majors.

Stroman’s dominant performance so far this season has made it seem like a no-brainer for him to decline a $21MM player option following the 2023 campaign and test the open market. Despite that, he’s been vocal about his desire to stay in Chicago even as the lack of extension discussions have led to trade speculation. Whether the Cubs ultimately fall out of contention as the calendar flips to July and the trade rumors intensify or the club cements itself as contenders who will continue to lean on their best pitcher down the stretch\, the club is surely hoping for a quick return to the mound for the veteran right-hander. In the event Stroman does miss time, the Cubs seem likely to rely on the services of youngster Hayden Wesneski in his stead.
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  • Speaking of veteran right-handers who could draw interest from clubs ahead of the trade deadline on August 1, the White Sox might welcome Mike Clevinger back to the active roster prior to the All Star break. Manager Pedro Grifol indicated to reporters, including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin, that a return prior to the midsummer classic was possible, but that he won’t return in a relief role and will be held out until he can be built back up to rotation-length outings. Clevinger has offered solid if uninspiring consistency at the back of the south side’s rotation this season, pitching to a 3.88 ERA and 4.88 FIP in 62 2/3 innings of work. A return before the All Star break could give potential suitors additional confidence in Clevinger’s health ahead of the trade deadline, when the 34-45 White Sox seem likely to sell off rental assets.
  • Sticking with the White Sox, one hurler who Grifol asserts will definitely not return prior to the All Star break is closer Liam Hendriks, who is on the shelf with right elbow inflammation. While Hendriks initially expressed optimism he could return in a couple of weeks, citing a similar injury last season that cost him three weeks, Grifol’s updated timeline would put the right-hander out of action for over a month. Hendriks has pitched just five innings this season between his current stint on the IL and his recovery from a battle with non-Hodgkins lymphoma. With Hendriks on the shelf, Kendall Graveman has stepped in as the closer for the White Sox this season.

White Sox Reportedly Only Willing To Trade Rental Players

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The White Sox are potentially lined up to be sellers at the deadline, though exactly how much they commit to that task remains to be seen. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that, as of right now, they might only be willing to move impending free agents. Those plans could always change as discussions take place, but it’s a noteworthy stance at the moment. The trade deadline is August 1.

At this point, it’s not even necessarily a lock that the White Sox will be sellers at all. Despite their poor 30-40 record, they are only 5.5 games back of the Twins in the weak American League Central division. But the Wild Card race is much stronger, putting them 9.5 games out of a spot there.

A hot streak could get them right back in the divisional race but those have been hard to come by this season and the front office needs to at least consider the possibility that they stay on the outside looking in. Like all clubs, the players on the roster have varied contractual situations that affect the trade calculus. It seems that the club is currently leaning towards trading players on expiring contracts but keeping players with more control in order to take another shot at contending next year.

Even by limiting themselves to a softer sell, they would still have plenty of players to discuss in trade talks. Lucas Giolito, Mike Clevinger, Yasmani Grandal, Elvis Andrus, Reynaldo López and Keynan Middleton are all set to reach free agency this winter and would be the club’s best trade chips. Clevinger’s deal has a mutual option for 2024 but those are rarely picked up by both parties.

Giolito would be one of the top names on the market this summer if he were available, having established himself as a reliable and effective starter in recent years. In each season from 2019 to 2021, he had an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53. That figure jumped to 4.90 last year, but that coincided with his batting average on balls in play jumping to .340, well above any of his previous seasons. This year, he’s dropped his ERA right back down to his norm as he’s at 3.54 through 14 starts.

Now 28 years old, Giolito has gone year-to-year in arbitration. He’s now in his third and final arb year, making $10.4MM. By the time the deadline rolls around, there will be roughly $3.5MM left to be paid out.

Just about every contender will be looking to bolster their rotation for the final months of the season and the playoffs, which should give Giolito widespread interest. Even teams on the lower end of the spending spectrum could fit that salary figure onto their books, meaning few clubs would be eliminated from the list of logical suitors. That makes Giolito the White Sox’ best chance at recouping some future value from what could end up being a disappointing season.

Some of those other names may have some appeal as well. Clevinger has a 3.88 ERA but with subpar peripherals, striking out 19.3% of opponents while walking 9.5%. A .275 batting average on balls in play and 81.2% strand rate are helping him out, with his 4.89 FIP and 5.07 SIERA less optimistic. He’s making a salary of $8MM this year but has a $4MM buyout on his mutual option. He has a bit of an uncertain health outlook at the moment, as he was removed from his most recent start due to biceps soreness. It seems there’s no structural damage, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, but he might still land on the injured list.

Grandal struggled last year but is having a decent bounce back, hitting .271/.330/.410 so far this year for a wRC+ of 106. Trading catchers at midseason can be tricky since they would then have to learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly. However, Grandal is 34 years old and hits well enough that it could make sense for him to factor into a club’s designated hitter mix, especially since he’s a switch-hitter. The final year of his four-year deal pays him $18.25MM annually.

Andrus is also an impending free agent but his interest will surely be muted as he’s hitting .196/.277/.247 this year. López has a 5.10 ERA but his 28.3% strikeout rate will surely lead to some intrigue. Middleton’s 1.93 ERA is buoyed by an unsustainable 96.3% strand rate but he is striking out 31.9% of opponents and getting grounders at a 54.5% clip. All three of these players are making modest salaries of less than $4MM this year.

There are also a couple of borderline cases who could be considered rentals. The Sox have an $18MM option on Lance Lynn for next year with a $1MM buyout. His 6.75 ERA this year makes it less likely that gets picked up but it also diminishes his trade appeal. Joe Kelly is in a somewhat similar situation as he can be kept around for 2024 via a $9.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout. He has a 4.57 ERA but strong peripherals and a 53.7% strand rate, leading to a 2.86 FIP and 2.80 SIERA.

The club also has a $15MM option on Liam Hendriks, though with a $15MM buyout. The only difference is that triggering the buyout would allow them to spread the payment out over 10 years instead of just in 2024. He’s been floated as a trade candidate this summer but he’s currently on the injured list due to inflammation in his pitching elbow. Given the injury, the PR hit of trading him away after his feel-good return from cancer and that buyout, it seems likely that he’s with the Sox again next year.

If the Sox ultimately stick to their plan of only trading rentals, that would mean that other speculative trade candidates are off the table. Many observers have wondered if the club would consider moving shortstop Tim Anderson, who can be retained for 2024 via a $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout. Trading him now would be a difficult decision because it would hurt the club’s chances of returning to contention in 2024 and the return would surely be diminished since he’s hitting just .251/.290/.296 this year. Instead of trading him when his value is at a low ebb, there would be sense in the club hanging onto him and hoping for a return to form next year.

Dylan Cease has also been suggested as a trade candidate but that would require the club to really commit to a lengthier rebuild. He still has two more passes through arbitration to go and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2025. His ERA has almost doubled from last year’s 2.20 to this year’s 4.31 figure, but he’s still getting strikeouts at an above-average 26.2% rate. They would surely get a huge haul for him if they decided to move him, but it doesn’t seem as though that’s on the table right now.

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