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Cardinals Select Masyn Winn

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The Cardinals announced they’ve selected the contract of top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn. In a corresponding move, St. Louis is placing center fielder Lars Nootbaar on the 10-day injured list with a lower abdominal contusion, tweets John Denton of MLB.com. The Cardinals already had two vacancies on the 40-man roster.

Winn was St. Louis’ second-round pick out of a Texas high school three years ago. The canceled minor league season kept him from playing in a professional game until 2021. Winn has rapidly climbed the minor league ladder, spending most of last season in Double-A at age 20. He stole 28 bases while hitting .258/.349/.432 in 86 games against generally older competition, cementing himself as one of the sport’s top prospects heading into last winter.

The Cards assigned Winn to Triple-A Memphis this year. He has spent the entire season there, posting a .283/.356/.465 batting line in 494 plate appearances. The slash stats are aided by an offense-heavy Triple-A environment. Of the 107 International League hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, Winn ranks 57th in on-base percentage and 43rd in slugging.

That production is partially weighed down by a very slow start to the year. Winn hit only .223/.287/.321 in April but has an OPS of .763 or better in every subsequent month. The right-handed hitter has feasted on southpaws, hitting .353/.425/.639 with the platoon advantage. His production against same-handed pitching is more modest — .258/.331/.401 — but that’s a small concern for a 21-year-old hitter at the top minor league level.

Winn has shown advanced contact skills, drawing walks at a decent 8.9% clip while striking out in only 16.8% of his plate appearances. He has connected on 17 home runs, 15 doubles and seven triples and gone 17-19 in stolen base attempts.

In addition to those promising offensive traits, Winn has a chance to be an impact middle infield defender. Prospect evaluators credit him with elite arm strength and the athleticism to stick at shortstop. While the Cards gave him 25 starts at the keystone in Memphis to broaden his flexibility, Winn has logged more than 2300 professional innings at shortstop.

Given the well-rounded profile and his upper minors success despite being so young, Winn is unanimously regarded as one of the top minor league talents. Baseball America ranked him the game’s #30 prospect on their recent update; Kiley McDaniel of ESPN slotted him 16th on his own refresh of the sport’s top prospects earlier in the week. Evaluators peg Winn’s power potential as solid-average while praising the rest of his profile.

The 5’11” infielder is generally viewed as the Cards’ potential long-term starting shortstop. St. Louis dealt Paul DeJong to the Blue Jays at the deadline. Tommy Edman has been the primary shortstop of late but is capable of moving around the diamond. Nootbaar will be out of action for at least the next week and a half after fouling a ball off his groin last night, while second baseman Nolan Gorman hit the 10-day IL this afternoon because of a lower back strain. Edman can cover the keystone or center field while the Cards give Winn regular run at shortstop over the season’s final six-plus weeks.

Along with the injuries to Nootbaar and Gorman, the calendar itself opened a path to Winn’s promotion. Players enter a season with rookie eligibility so long as they’ve spent fewer than 46 days on an MLB active roster and tallied 130 or fewer big league at-bats. Beginning Friday, there’ll be 45 days left in the regular season. Assuming the Cards limit his playing time to keep him from topping 130 at-bats, he’ll retain his rookie eligibility into 2024.

Before 2022, a player’s rookie status wouldn’t matter much to clubs in timing their promotions. The Prospect Promotion Incentive in the ’22 collective bargaining agreement now makes that a factor in some cases. A position player who had appeared on at least two Top 100 lists at BA, ESPN and MLB Pipeline the preceding offseason can earn his club a bonus draft choice if a) the team carries them on the MLB roster for a full service year and b) the player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in MVP voting during his pre-arbitration seasons.

Winn will certainly meet the prospect criteria next winter. Whether the Cardinals carry him on the MLB roster for all of 2024 and if he plays well enough to merit award consideration can’t yet be known. By waiting until August 18 to bring him up, however, the Cardinals are keeping that possibility open (again assuming Winn stays under 131 at-bats through season’s end).

If he’s in the majors through year’s end, Winn will conclude this season with 45 days of service. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2026 campaign at the earliest and is controllable through at least 2029. Future assignments to the minors could push that trajectory back further.

The more immediate focus for both Winn and the club will be on his initial exposure to big league pitching. He’ll have a month and a half to try to stake an early claim to the shortstop job heading into 2024. St. Louis has Edman, Gorman and Brendan Donovan (who’s out for the season after undergoing elbow surgery) also in the middle infield mix. If Winn puts a strong foot forward over the coming weeks, perhaps that’d increase the front office’s willingness to part with a middle infielder in an offseason trade as they look for ways to overhaul three-fifths of their rotation.

Katie Woo of the Athletic first reported Winn’s promotion.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Will Cardinals’ Outfield Logjam Lead To A Trade?

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The Cardinals expect to reinstate Tyler O’Neill from the injured list Thursday, and in doing so, they’ll push Dylan Carlson out of a starting job and back into a reserve role. With O’Neill occupying left field, the Cards will continue to deploy Lars Nootbaar in center field and Jordan Walker in right field. MLB.com’s John Denton writes that manager Oli Marmol has already informed Carlson of the decision.

“At the end of the day, we’ll find appropriate at-bats for guys, but this is where we’re at and there’s no way around it,” Marmol said of the decision to push Carlson into a reserve role. “Certain guys need to play the outfield … and [O’Neill] is going to play.”

Were it just a matter of finding playing time for this quartet, it might be easier to get each player regular at-bats. However, the Cards also have first baseman/outfielder Alec Burleson to consider, as well as super-utility standouts Brendan Donovan and (when healthy) Tommy Edman. Slugger Nolan Gorman also fits into the mix at designated hitter and at second base.

It’s a large number of talented position players for Marmol to accommodate with playing time. For now, Carlson has been squeezed out of a regular role on the club, and the question becomes one of whether he’ll be squeezed off the roster entirely.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier in the week that the Yankees had expressed interest in Carlson, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported similarly yesterday. Other clubs figure to be involved on the switch-hitting 24-year-old, given his former prospect pedigree and remaining three seasons of club control beyond the current campaign.

Because of that club control, the Cardinals don’t necessarily need to feel any urgency to make a deal. But the Cards are also in dire need of starting pitching that’s controlled beyond the current season. Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Matthew Liberatore, Dakota Hudson and Jake Woodford are their only rotation options with any real big league experience who are signed/controlled beyond the 2023 season. All other than Mikolas have struggled.

It’s at least possible the Cardinals could consider other trades to address the rotation needs and alleviate some of the position player logjam. However, St. Louis was staunchly against trading both Nootbaar and Donovan this past offseason, and Goold reported recently that Nootbaar remains unlikely to be available. The Athletic’s Katie Woo wrote this morning that Nootbaar is viewed by the front office as a “key member of their core.” Donovan, last year’s third-place Rookie of the Year finisher, and Walker, who entered the season regarded as one of baseball’s top 10 prospects, are surely viewed in similar fashion.

There’s certainly an argument that it’s in the Cardinals’ interest to trade O’Neill instead, but he’s hitting just .228/.303/.380 in 482 plate appearances dating back to last season. He’s far less likely to command a quality return than Carlson would, given those struggles and his shorter window of team control (through the 2024 season). They’d also be selling low on a player who hit .286/.352/.560 and popped 34 home runs as recently as 2021.

All of those factors contribute to the mounting rumblings of a possible Carlson trade. That said, it’s still somewhat remarkable that things have reached this point. It was only a couple years ago that Carlson was the Cardinals’ equivalent of present-day Walker — a former first-round pick who entered the season ranked among the sport’s top 10 to 15 prospects. He didn’t hit the ground running in his 2020 debut, but that came as a 21-year-old during the Covid-shortened season when Carlson didn’t have the opportunity to play minor league games in a competitive setting.

In Carlson’s first full season, 2021, he turned in a .266/.343/.437 batting line with 18 home runs. Defensive grades on him were rough, but it was a promising step for the 22-year-old nonetheless. His offensive production has diminished since that time, but Carlson’s defensive prowess has been on display as he’s posted quality marks across all three outfield spots. In total, he’s a .250/.333/.405 switch-hitter with plus defense dating back to 2021 — and he has three-plus years of remaining team control.

It’s rare for such players to even be available on the trade market, but the Cardinals have a knack for developing quality position players. They also have a tendency to play the hot hand with those players, one that spans nearly a decade; they’ve been going through similar hot-potato scenarios as far back as 2014 (Jon Jay, Peter Bourjos, Randal Grichuk, Tommy Pham, etc.).

On the one hand, it’s a testament to the team’s player development staff. On the other, the frequent stop-and-start approach to playing time has arguably contributed to the glut of quality bats (outfielders, in particular) that St. Louis has traded away over the years.

Carlson, for his part, acknowledged to Denton that news of his reduced role was “tough” to take; he views himself as an everyday player and emphasized that the competitor in him wants to be out there as often as possible. He didn’t outwardly call for a trade, but there’s little doubt he’s keenly aware it’s a possibility and perhaps a path to the regular role he desires.

Time will tell whether a trade of Carlson actually comes to fruition, but his blend of youth, team control, defensive excellence and still-present offensive upside will make him widely appealing. At some point — whether it’s Carlson, O’Neill, Burleson or someone else — it seems like the Cardinals will be in position to deal from their deep stock of controllable position players to address their need for pitching help.

Cardinals Interested In Logan Gilbert

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The Cardinals are coming out of the All-Star break with a 38-52 record, placing them in last place in the National League Central and 11 games back in the Wild Card race. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently admitted that the club will have to approach the deadline as sellers, focusing on making moves that benefit the 2024 club.

The club has just over two weeks until the August 1 deadline, giving them some time to figure out their plans, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a report with some specifics that shine a light on their current plans. Notably, the Cards are uninterested in trading core players like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker. They are open, however, to trading pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Ryan Helsley and Génesis Cabrera, while Jack Flaherty is already generating interest from other clubs. As for what kind of player they are looking to bring in, Goold lists Logan Gilbert of the Mariners as someone they are interested in.

To be clear, there’s no indication that the Mariners have any inclination towards trading Gilbert, but it’s entirely understandable why the Cards would be interested. The 26-year-old Gilbert has made 74 starts to this point in his career, posting a 3.75 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 36.9% ground ball rate. He’s right in line with those figures this year, having a 3.66 ERA with similar peripherals in 18 starts.

More importantly for the Cardinals, Gilbert can be immediately plugged into their rotation and has plenty of club control remaining. He came into this season with one year and 144 days of service time and will finish this season at 2.144. That makes him a virtual lock to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, but he will still have four years of club control left, meaning he isn’t slated to become a free agent until after the 2027 season.

The Cards are not planning a deep rebuild but are instead focused on next year’s club, when they have plenty of rotation uncertainty. Adam Wainwright is planning to retire after this year, while both Flaherty and Montgomery are impending free agents. They have also seen some internal options struggle this year. Steven Matz had an ERA of 5.72 through 10 starts before getting bumped to the bullpen, though he recently retook a rotation job after some solid relief work. Matthew Liberatore has decent numbers in Triple-A but a 6.75 ERA in the majors this year. Dakota Hudson has spent most of the year in Triple-A, posting an ERA of 6.00 at that level. All of that leaves Miles Mikolas as the only sure thing for next year’s rotation.

But Seattle wouldn’t give up Gilbert easily. The club is 45-44 right now and just four games out in the American League Wild Card race. Gilbert is a key part of their rotation right now and for future seasons, given his aforementioned years of control. If they were to give any thought to moving him, they would likely have to get back something that helps some other part of their roster in the here and now. They also have Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Bryan Woo in their rotation alongside Gilbert, but Robbie Ray is out of the season while Bryce Miller and Marco Gonzales are currently on the injured list. Subtracting Gilbert from that mix would to be weighed against the benefits of an upgrade elsewhere.

The Mariners have tried to do a buy-sell hybrid before, which was in 2021. They flipped relievers Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero to the Astros in exchange for Joe Smith and Abraham Toro, while picking up Diego Castillo and Tyler Anderson in separate deals. The move didn’t work out, with the clubhouse apparently not thrilled by the closer suddenly pitching for a divisional rival and the M’s ultimately missing the playoffs.

This year’s trade deadline is generally considered to have a lack of sellers that may force clubs to consider trades between contenders, with each club giving up current major league talent, such as last year’s deal where the Cards got Montgomery from the Yankees for Harrison Bader. A Gilbert trade would be a significantly different beast though, since Montgomery and Bader each had just a season and a half of club control remaining at the time. When factoring in Gilbert’s extra control and the fact that the M’s just got burned on the hybrid deadline strategy not too long ago, it’s hard to view a trade coming together as a likely scenario.

Nonetheless, the interest from the Cardinals is instructive as to what their targets might be. They have a crowded position player mix and may perhaps look to swap someone from that group for some controllable pitching, even if it’s not Gilbert. It remains to be seen which players they are willing to put on the table in such a pursuit, but it seems they’ll hang onto Arenado, Goldschmidt, Nootbaar and Walker.

It’s not a terrible shock to see those names listed as off-limits. Goldschmidt and Arenado are the two most important players on the club, finishing first and third respectively in National League MVP voting last year. Both players also have full no-trade clauses, which would make a deal complicated even if the Cardinals wanted to consider it. The players could always waive their clauses but Goold reports that Arenado has not been approached about doing so and would prefer to stay anyway. There’s been no reporting to suggest that anything is different with Goldschmidt.

Walker was one of the top prospects in the league coming into this year and is faring well in his first season, hitting .283/.347/.457 for a 123 wRC+ thus far. He made the club’s Opening Day roster but was optioned for over a month at one point, meaning he’ll come up shy of one year of major league service here in 2023 and leave the Cards with six further seasons of control. As a consensus top prospect, he could earn that full year by finishing in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but he would still be a key part of the club’s future even in that scenario.

Nootbaar, meanwhile, has hit .241/.343/.420 in 226 career games while providing above-average outfield defense. He will still have four years of control remaining after this one and isn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after 2024.

Just because those names are listed as unavailable, it doesn’t necessarily mean that anyone not named is therefore available, but the club will likely have to move someone. Tyler O’Neill has often been speculated as a candidate since the club has Nootbaar, Walker, Dylan Carlson and others in the outfield mix. On the infield, meanwhile, Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan have somewhat similar multi-positional profiles and have been pushed to the grass with Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman often in the middle infield. If the Cards have their sights set on an impact rotation addition like Gilbert or someone similar, they might have to make the difficult decision of parting with someone in that group.

Though that situation seems fluid and has many factors, the rental pitching seems much more straightforward. Each of Montgomery, Flaherty and Hicks are impending free agents and seem virtual locks to be moved at this point. Montgomery is a consistent mid-rotation guy, with a 3.75 career ERA and a 3.23 mark here in 2023. He’s making $10MM this year, which will leave about $3.22MM left to be paid out at the deadline.

Flaherty has shown ace upside in the past but was held back by injuries in recent years. He’s not back to those ace levels this year, currently sporting a 4.27 ERA, but he’s at least healthy and effective enough for a rotation job. Hicks, meanwhile, has triple-digit velocity and seems to be finally figuring out how to weaponize it properly.

Helsley and Cabrera aren’t strict rentals and don’t need to be moved at this deadline, necessarily. But given the volatility of relief performance, it’s logical for the Cardinals to consider what kind of return they can get right now. Helsley seemed to take over the closer’s role last year, posting a 1.25 ERA and racking up 19 saves in the process. He has a 3.24 ERA this year but has been on the injured list for the past month due to a strained right forearm. Players on the IL can be traded but his health status might cast a shadow over trade talks. He can be controlled for two more seasons after this one via arbitration. He’s making $2.15MM and will have about $700K left to be paid out when the deadline rolls around.

Cabrera, 26, has been inconsistent in terms of his strikeouts but has always had subpar control. Regardless, left-handed relief tends to always be in demand to some degree. He has a 4.07 ERA in his career but a 4.70 mark this year. He’s struck out 25.7% of opponents this season but walked 13.2%. Like Helsley, he can be retained via arbitration for two more campaigns after this one. He’s making $950K this year, which will leave just over $300K at deadline time.

All in all, there are many moving parts for the Cardinals to consider, making them one of the most interesting clubs to watch in the coming weeks. They haven’t been in the clear seller position in a while, but they seem well-positioned to take advantage of it. Few clubs are in the same category and many of the other clear sellers have far less to offer in terms of players that would be of interest for contending clubs.

Central Notes: Cardinals, Yarbrough, Pirates

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The Cardinals could activate outfielder Lars Nootbaar from the injured list as soon as tomorrow, according to John Denton of MLB.com. Nootbaar, who has been on the IL since the beginning of the month with a lower back contusion, has slashed .266/.380/.390 in 184 plate appearances for St. Louis this season, good for a 118 wRC+.

As discussed by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Nootbaar’s return will create something of a conundrum for Cardinals manager Oli Marmol, who has moved Tommy Edman from shortstop to the outfield in recent weeks, a change the switch-hitter has taken well to. Goold suggests that the return of Nootbaar, who can play quality defense in all three outfield spots, would give Marmol the option to shift Edman back to the infield, with Nootbaar taking over center and Nolan Gorman spending most days at DH. Otherwise, Marmol could leave Edman in the center and use Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson in the corners while allowing Jordan Walker, who has struggled to adjust to outfield work after spending most of his minor league career on the infield dirt, to DH.

Whatever defensive alignment the Cardinals end up with, Nootbaar’s return figures to help boost the club as it struggles to stay relevant in the NL Central. Despite an abysmal 29-43 record leaving them 8.5 games back in the NL Central, St. Louis still has a 12.1% chance to make the playoffs, per Fangraphs, thanks to their weak competition in the division.

More from around the Central divisions…

  • Royals left-hander Ryan Yarbrough is set to begin a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League tomorrow, per a club announcement. That’s fantastic news for not only fans in Kansas City, but all around baseball considering the circumstances of Yarbrough’s injury. The lefty was placed on the injured list in early May with multiple head fractures after being struck in the face by a line drive off the bat of Oakland slugger Ryan Noda. Prior to his injury, Yarbrough had struggled badly across ten appearances with the Royals, posting a 6.15 ERA and 5.17 FIP in 26 1/3 innings of work.
  • Following today’s news that the Pirates are poised to promote 2021 first overall pick Henry Davis to the majors tomorrow, manager Derek Shelton told reporters, including MLB.com’s Justice delos Santos, that the club’s current catching tandem of Austin Hedges and Jason Delay would remain on the roster. With Pittsburgh planning to carry three catchers as Davis breaks into the majors, it’s worth wondering how the club plans to use Davis. While the youngster was drafted and has been used primarily as a catcher, he’s also started 15 games in right field over the past two seasons while mixing in starts at DH. Of course, the DH slot in Pittsburgh is largely occupied by Andrew McCutchen, leaving right field as Davis’s most likely home on days where Hedges or Delay start behind the plate. Connor Joe and Josh Palacios are currently manning right for the Pirates in a timeshare.

Cardinals Notes: Edman, Outfield, Naughton

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Even after outfielder Dylan Carlson was activated from the injured list yesterday, the Cardinals have opted to leave Tommy Edman in center field, where he seems poised to stick for the foreseeable future, as noted by Katie Woo of The Athletic. Manager Oliver Marmol expressed support of Edman’s glovework in center field, telling reporters (including Woo) that the switch-hitter “has done a really nice job in center”, calling his work in the outfield “darn impressive.”

Edman has paired his quality glove with roughly league average offense so far in 2023, as the 28-year-old utility man has slashed .246/.306/.417 in 221 plate appearances this season, good for a wRC+ of 98. While that figure represents a definitive step back from Edman’s .265/.324/.400 slash line in 2022 (108 wRC+), it’s worth noting that Edman’s .265 BABIP so far this season would be the lowest of his career over a full season, far below his career .303 figure.

While shifting a Gold Glove middle infielder to the outfield is a risky move when it comes to preserving infield defense, the Cardinals are fortunate to have quality options in Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, and Paul DeJong up the middle, with veteran superstars Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt flanking them at the infield corners. With Edman sticking in center, Carlson has been used in Right Field since his return, with youngsters Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson patrolling left.

Of course, the club will have to revisit Edman’s hold on center field as more injured outfielders, such as Tyler O’Neill and Lars Nootbaar, return from the IL. That being said, it seems that any such decision won’t be coming any time soon, as O’Neill saw his rehab paused due to continued back discomfort at the end of May. Meanwhile, Nootbaar has only just begun to hit off a tee after going on the IL with back spasms last week per MLB.com’s John Denton.

In more positive injury news, Denton notes that left-hander Packy Naughton, who has been on the IL with a forearm strain since early April, is poised to make a Triple-A rehab appearance tomorrow. Prior to his injury, Naughton impressed with five scoreless innings where he allowed just two hits and a walk while striking out five, good for a 1.88 FIP. Upon his return, Naughton could factor into the St. Louis bullpen alongside the likes of Andre Pallante and Genesis Cabrera as the club relies on Ryan Helsley, Jordan Hicks, and Giovanny Gallegos in the late innings.

Cardinals Place Lars Nootbaar On IL With Back Injury

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The Cardinals announced that outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 30, with a lower back contusion. His roster spot will go to fellow outfielder Jordan Walker, whose recall was reported yesterday.

Nootbaar, 25, goes to the IL for the second time this season. He landed on the shelf in early April due to a left thumb contusion. He returned in the middle of April but has sat out the past few days with back spasms, which allowed the club to backdate today’s IL stint. That means he could potentially return in a week but it will leave the club noticeably short-handed in center field in the meantime.

The Cards traded away Harrison Bader last year, seemingly confident in finding an internal replacement in center field from either Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson or Nootbaar. All three of them had previous experience at the position and have been given some more time there this year, but now all three of them are on the injured list at the same time. O’Neill has been out close to a month due to a lower back strain and doesn’t seem to have made much progress in getting healthy again. Carlson has been out of action about two weeks due to an ankle injury and has yet to begin a rehab assignment.

The club is coming off unusual back-to-back off-days, meaning their most recent contest was on Tuesday. In that game, Tommy Edman went out to play center field and could perhaps continue in that role for the next week. After Tuesday’s game, he’s now up to 13 major league innings at the position. He was the club’s shortstop earlier in the year but Paul DeJong has since taken over while bouncing back from a few miserable seasons at the plate. Óscar Mercado is another option for center field work and is hitting .333/.357/.444 this year. But that’s in a small sample of 28 plate appearances and his career batting line is a far more modest .238/.291/.389.

Hopefully, the week off is enough for Nootbaar to return to action as he’s a strong all-around contributor. In 208 career games, he’s hit 23 home runs and walked in 14.2% of his plate appearances. His .241/.347/.427 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 118. He’s also stolen 11 bases and has strong grades for his outfield defense.

Cardinals Notes: Mozeliak, O’Neill, Carlson, Nootbaar

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The Cardinals’s record dropped to 24-32 after today’s loss to the Royals, but unsurprisingly, St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak isn’t giving up on the season as the calendar approaches June.  In an interview with Jim Hayes of Bally Sports (video link) today, Mozeliak said his team is preparing to make additions at the trade deadline, and “I don’t anticipate us [selling] at all.  I think…where our division is headed, it’s going to remain very competitive.  So really we’re going to be looking at ways that can really help this club.”

Despite their lackluster record, the Cards are still only 5.5 games out of first place in the NL Central, with the Brewers holding the top spot with a modest 28-25 record.  Also, the National League as a whole is still very compact, so the Cardinals are only five games out of a wild card berth.

It’s therefore far too early for a team with World Series aspirations like the Cardinals to reload for 2024, especially considering that St. Louis has made a habit of second-half surges in recent years.  It’s possible the Cards have already bounced back in some fashion from their brutal start, as St. Louis is 14-8 in its last 22 games and can clinch a winning record in May with a victory over the Royals on Tuesday.

Mozeliak also provided an update of sorts on Tyler O’Neill, though not positive news for a player who has already been out since May 5 due to a lower back strain.  O’Neill is still “feeling discomfort” in his back, so Mozeliak noted that “until he’s cleared to do more baseball activity, it’s hard to push him through that.”  As a result, Mozeliak said “we’re doing to do a little bit of a pause” on O’Neill’s rehab work, and “do a few additional tests, and then decide what those next steps look like.”

Dylan Carlson has been sidelined with an ankle injury for the last two weeks but Mozeliak mentioned he could begin a minor league rehab assignment as early as this week.  That would provide some help for a Cardinals outfield that looks like it’ll be missing O’Neill for the foreseeable future, and another injury concern emerged today when Lars Nootbaar left the game due to back spasms.

In the second inning, Nootbaar collided with the wall while making a catch, leaving the outfielder visibly sore.  Nootbaar tried to stay in the game but in the next inning, he dropped to his knees while in pursuit of a Nick Pratto fly ball, and had to be removed.  In postgame interviews with Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other reporters, Nootbaar didn’t seem too worried about the injury, but it would seem likely that the Cardinals will keep him out of at least tomorrow’s lineup for precautionary reasons.  The Cards have a rare two-day schedule break on May 31 and June 1, so if Nootbaar could get three full days off to heal up before a potential return to action.

The Ongoing Cardinals Outfield Battle

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Even though the Cardinals traded away Harrison Bader last summer, they are still dealing with a crowded outfield mix. That’s thanks to the emergence of young players like Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker. Those two joined Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson in the battle for playing time. That’s five guys for three spots, since infielder Nolan Gorman has been taking the designated hitter slot on most days, with Willson Contreras getting a couple of nods there as well when not catching.

The crowding evidently got to be a bit too much, as Walker was surprisingly optioned down to the minors this week. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently addressed the move, as relayed by John Denton of MLB.com (Twitter links). Mozeliak said the move was about getting some more consistency from this group, hoping that subtracting one member would make it easier for everyone to get into a good rhythm.

The results of this jockeying for playing time will have consequences for the club in the short term, as they are off to a rough 10-16 start and will need to gain ground in the coming months. There will also be long-term ramifications, since all of those players are still under club control next year. If the Cards find themselves outside the playoff picture in July, they could consider moving someone and still have plenty of options to fill the outfield. And , as we saw last year with the Bader deal, they could make a trade even when they are in contention. Those decisions will surely be based on how the individuals perform in the next few months, so let’s take a look at where things stand now.

Tyler O’Neill

O’Neill is the oldest and most experienced of the bunch, turning 28 in June and having debuted in 2018. He has between four and five years of service time, meaning he can be controlled via arbitration for one more year before reaching free agency after the 2024 season.

He has shown the ability to be an excellent all-around player, especially in 2021. O’Neill hit 34 home runs that year and slashed .286/.352/.560 overall for a wRC+ of 144. He also stole 15 bases and was graded well for his glovework in left field, leading to a tally of 5.6 wins above replacement, per the calculations of FanGraphs. That currently stands out as a career year for O’Neill, who was slowed by injuries last year. He only got into 96 games and had a diminished .228/.308/.392 batting line (101 wRC+). This year, he’s hitting just .256/.318/.385 for a wRC+ of 98.

O’Neill and manager Oli Marmol got in a public spat earlier in the year when the latter accused the former of improper hustle and spoke to the media about it. O’Neill disagreed with the sentiment that he wasn’t giving his all and also didn’t seem to care for the issue being aired so openly. He was benched for one game but has been getting regular playing time since, seeming to suggest there’s no lingering ill will from the dust-up. He got some time in center field earlier in the year but has been back in left for the past couple of weeks.

Some observers have pointed to the fact that Bader was also criticized by Marmol for a lack of hustle last year, just about six weeks before he was flipped to the Yankees, therefore suggesting the writing is on the wall for O’Neill. That’s pure speculation, but O’Neill is the most logical trade candidate since he’s the oldest and closest to free agency. However, dealing him would be selling low unless he can regain some of that excellent form he showed a couple of years ago.

Lars Nootbaar

Nootbaar is in his third major league season but was frequently optioned in the first couple, meaning he’s played just 178 games thus far. He initially hovered around league average at the plate but has taken steps forward over the past year or so, seeming to thrive when he got more regular playing time. Bader went on the IL June 27 of last year with plantar fasciitis, moving Carlson over to center and opening right field for Nootbaar. Bader was then traded before even recovering from that ailment. Since that time, Nootbaar has walked almost as much as he’s been punched out, getting a free pass 17.2% of the time compared to an 18.4% strikeout rate. That’s led to a .244/.373/.478 batting line and a 141 wRC+. His strong results at the plate are backed up by Statcast, who ranked him in the 90th percentile last year in terms of average exit velocity, 80th in hard hit rate and 85th in barrel rate.

That strong work at the plate is accompanied by excellent glovework as well. Nootbaar has played all three outfield positions and has tallied two Outs Above Average, six Defensive Runs Saved and a 6.7 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating. In the comments from Mozeliak linked above, he said Nootbaar will be the regular center fielder going forward.

Nootbaar seems like a solid long-term piece for the Cardinals given his well-rounded contributions. He’s currently 25 years old and has between one and two years of service time. He won’t reach arbitration until after 2024 and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2027. Over the winter, both the Athletics (in Sean Murphy discussions) and Marlins (in Pablo Lopez talks) brought up Nootbaar as a target of interest, but the Cardinals rebuffed those overtures.

Alec Burleson

Unlike O’Neill and Nootbaar, Burleson has fewer dimensions to his game. His defense is generally considered subpar, even when limited to the corners, and Statcast pegs him in the 24th percentile in terms of sprint speed. He’s seen a bit of time at first base, dating back to last season.

The appeal of Burleson is his bat, which has the potential to hit for both contact and power. Outside of a brief debut in High-A in 2021, he’s generally been difficult to strike out both in the majors and the minors. He’s had only 134 major league plate appearances so far but has been punched out at just a 14.2% rate, well below this year’s 23% league average. He’s hit three home runs so far and currently has a line of .236/.295/.444. That’s just slightly above average, translating to a 104 wRC+, but that’s not bad for a player still getting his feet wet in the majors. He hit 20 home runs in 109 Triple-A games last year and slashed .331/.372/.532 (137 wRC+).

Burleson is just 24 years old and has less than a year of service, meaning he won’t qualify for arbitration until after 2025 and isn’t slated for free agency until 2028. He could be a long-term option in the corners for St. Louis, but he isn’t an exact match for their typical M.O. of placing an emphasis on defense.

Dylan Carlson

Carlson was considered one of the top prospects in baseball not too long ago, with Baseball America having him in the top 10 league-wide in 2020 and 2021. He got regular playing time over the past two years and proved himself to be a serviceable player with average-ish hitting and defense. Carlson hit .253/.331/.412 for a wRC+ of 107 over 2021 and 2022, walking and striking out at roughly league average rates. All three of DRS, OAA and UZR considered his glovework average or slightly above.

He’s been the one most squeezed by the logjam so far, only starting 10 of the club’s 26 games. The part-time role hasn’t suited him, as he’s hitting just .250/.308/.333 on the season for a wRC+ of 83. Perhaps he is the player with the most to gain from Walker’s demotion, as he will hopefully get some more trips to the plate and get into a better groove. He’s 24 years old but has between two and three years of service time already. He’s on pace to qualify for arbitration this winter and reach free agency in the 2026-27 offseason.

Jordan Walker

Walker parlayed a hot spring into an Opening Day roster spot despite being just 20 years old, turning 21 in May. He stayed hot to start the season, getting a hit in his first 12 games while slashing .319/.360/.489. He cooled off a bit from there, hitting just .192/.250/.231 since then. That latter line is a tiny sample of eight games, but the club still felt the best decision for everyone involved was for him to get regular at-bats in the minors and to spread his playing time around to the others. Between both of those stretches, he only walked in 3.8% of his trips to the plate.

Walker is still one of the best prospects in the game and will no doubt be back at some point. An injury to one of the other outfielders would quickly make space for him. He was on track to earn a full year of service this year but could wind up shy of that, depending how long he’s down on the farm.

Juan Yepez

Yepez has mashed in the minors over the past few years, hitting .252/.343/.487 in Double-A and .281/.362/.575 in Triple-A. He’s seemingly capable of carrying that over to the big leagues as well, having hit .257/.297/.453 for a wRC+ of 111 in 286 plate appearances. The problem is that he’s not considered a strong runner or defender. He could be a useful bat-first player in a corner spot, but the Cards have Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado at first and third, in addition to the crowded outfield mix. Yepez is 25 years old and still has a couple of option years, meaning the Cards can keep him as a depth piece for quite a while if they so choose.

Moises Gomez

Gomez isn’t considered a great runner or defender, nor does he have strong bat-to-ball skills. His standout tool is his power. Gomez hit 39 home runs last year in 120 games between Double-A and Triple-A, but also struck out in 34.7% of his plate appearances. He was added to the 40-man roster at season’s end to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency but is off to a slow start this year. Through 20 Triple-A games, he’s cut his strikeout rate to 24.7% but has gone deep just once and is walking just 4.7% of the time. His .234/.282/.351 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 58.

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There’s plenty of talent amid these options and it seems entirely possible that a trade will be on the table this summer, whether the Cardinals climb back into contention or not. They could easily move one of these players for some pitching, just like they did with Bader last year, and still have good options for filling out the lineup card every night. The club’s front office has just over three months to decide how to play it.

IL Activations: Hughes, Nootbaar, Kepler, Lorenzen

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Catching up on notable players returning from the injured list today…

LATEST MOVES

  • The Cubs activated left-hander Brandon Hughes from the 15-day IL, and outfielder Nelson Velazquez was optioned to Triple-A to create roster space.  Hughes was bothered by inflammation in his left knee during Spring Training, so Chicago placed him on the IL prior to Opening Day so Hughes could recover and then complete his ramp-up progress.  In an impressive rookie season, Hughes posted a 3.12 ERA and an above-average 28.3% strikeout rate (albeit with a subpar walk rate) over 57 2/3 innings out of the Cubs’ bullpen.

EARLIER TODAY

  • The Cardinals activated Lars Nootbaar from the 10-day IL, and sent Juan Yepez to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Nootbaar was in the St. Louis lineup for the first time since Opening Day, when he injured his left thumb diving into a base.  While the Cardinals’ outfield depth chart might prevent Nootbaar from true everyday duty, he is still expected to get a lot of playing time as a left-handed hitter capable of playing all three outfield spots.  Jordan Walker’s emergence has only added to a crowded outfield picture that also includes Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, Alec Burleson, Dylan Carlson, Yepez, and utilityman Brendan Donovan.
  • The Twins activated outfielder Max Kepler from the 10-day IL, as Kepler returned after missing the minimum 10 days while recovering from right patellar tendinitis.  Minnesota optioned outfielder Matt Wallner to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Kepler’s return will bring a bit of relief for the injury-plagued Twins, and he’ll look for something of a reset to his season after playing in only four games prior to his IL stint.  Kepler is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract, and will be a free agent this winter unless the Twins exercise a $10MM club option for 2024.
  • Michael Lorenzen made his first start of the season today, as the Tigers activated the right-hander from the 15-day IL.  Unsurprisingly, Lorenzen showed some rust, allowing six earned runs over four innings in what ended up being a 7-6 comeback win for Detroit over San Francisco.  A left groin strain has kept Lorenzen on the shelf, but going forward, he is expected to contribute in the Tigers’ rotation after signing a one-year, $8.5MM free agent deal during the offseason.  Along with activating Lorenzen, Detroit also called up southpaw Tyler Holton from Triple-A, and sent righty Garrett Hill and infielder Ryan Kreidler to Triple-A.

Cardinals Notes: O’Neill, Marlins, Naughton, Nootbaar, Wainwright

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Tyler O’Neill’s name was part of trade talks with the Marlins and other teams this winter, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports.  Back in January, Rosenthal wrote that St. Louis had shown interest in the Marlins’ pitching, and since Miami was known to be looking for outfield help, it stands to reason that O’Neill was part of those discussions.  No trade materialized between the two sides, of course, and it isn’t known if O’Neill was necessarily one of the Marlins’ top targets on the St. Louis roster, or if the Cards were more open to moving O’Neill than any of their outfielders.

Given all of the Cardinals’ outfield depth and the Marlins’ rotation depth, any number of names or potential trades could’ve been floated in negotiations — likewise, any team engaging the Cardinals in outfield-related trade talks might’ve had a few options in mind.  While O’Neill was coming off a relative down year in 2022, that doesn’t mean rival clubs wouldn’t have still had trade interest, perhaps hoping to nab the two-time Gold Glover in a buy-low situation.

With this all in mind, Rosenthal wonders if O’Neill could potentially be tangled in trade talks again, perhaps in an outfielder-for-pitching swap similar to the deal that sent Harrison Bader to the Yankees for Jordan Montgomery at last year’s trade deadline.  As The Athletic’s Levi Weaver noted, Bader was traded within a couple of months after Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol removed him mid-game for a perceived lack of effort.  On Wednesday, O’Neill wasn’t in the Cards’ starting lineup, which Marmol publicly said was due to what the skipper felt was a lack of hustle on O’Neill’s part in running the bases in Tuesday’s game.  O’Neill both denied that charge, and also wasn’t pleased that Marmol went public with the criticism.

It should be noted that O’Neill still appeared in Wednesday’s game as a pinch-hitter, and after Thursday’s off-day, O’Neill was back as the starting center fielder in the Cardinals’ 4-0 loss to the Brewers on Friday.  Talking to Derrick Gould of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other reporters, Marmol said it was “one hundred percent” important to have O’Neill back in action, calling him “one of the most talented players in that clubhouse.  There’s a next step for Tyler in his career, and my job is to get him there.”

The manager also explained his perspective on “holding someone accountable” as it related to his decision to call O’Neill out, saying “it’s your ability to sit down with a player before the lights come on before the stadium is packed and ask them what they want for themselves and what they want for the team.  And allowing them to articulate that and then asking for permission to hold them to that.  And when it doesn’t look right, you hold them to that.”

Beyond O’Neill’s return and the shutout loss, Friday’s game was also notable for what might be a significant injury to left-hander Packy Naughton.  After pitching to three batters in his relief outing, Naughton left the game with what the club later described as forearm tightness.  Goold wrote that Naughton was slated to have his left arm examined last night.

It seems like Naughton is headed for the injured list at the very least, and he and the team can only hope that a serious injury has been avoided.  Naughton is just a few days shy of his 27th birthday, and he is in his third MLB season.  St. Louis claimed Naughton off waivers from the Angels in March 2022, and his first season with the Cardinals saw Naughton post a 4.78 ERA over 32 innings, working mostly as a reliever.

In other injury news, Lars Nootbaar might be activated from the 10-day IL as early as Monday, since Marmol told MLB.com and other reporters that the club will wait to see how Nootbaar’s injured left thumb feels after batting practice.  However, Nootbaar said that his thumb is more of an issue when trying to catch a ball or even when wearing a glove, moreso than any pain caused by taking swings.

Adam Wainwright is on the 15-day IL recovering from a groin strain, and is slated for his second 28-pitch bullpen session on Sunday.  If all goes well, Wainwright might throw more pitches in another bullpen tentatively scheduled for Wednesday, and a minor league rehab outing could then follow in the coming days.

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