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Reds Showing Interest In Josh Naylor, Lane Thomas

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“The Reds have kicked the tires on” Josh Naylor and Lane Thomas in trade talks with the Guardians, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  The Guards are known to be open to offers for either player, though there isn’t any indication that a deal with the Reds or anyone is particularly close.  Wittenmyer’s use of the “kicked the tires” phrasing might hint that this was more of an exploratory check-in for the Reds than a serious push for either Cleveland player.

Cincinnati is known to be looking at outfield additions in particular, as president of baseball operations Nick Krall recently said that any new bat brought into the Reds’ fold would “most likely” be an outfielder.  Thomas’ right-handed bat could be a complement for Jake Fraley or TJ Friedl (both left-handed hitters) in right or center field, though since the Reds’ budget may be pretty limited, Thomas’ $8.3MM projected arbitration salary is a little steep for what might ideally be a part-time role.

Thomas hit better with the Nationals (.253/.331/.407 in 341 plate appearances) than he did with the Guardians (.209/.267/.390 in 187 PA) last season, and the combined totals work out to a slightly subpar 99 wRC+.  Thomas was worth 1.3 fWAR overall in his 130 total games, as public defensive metrics strongly disliked his right field glovework, and he was middling at best as a center field.

The Reds’ infield situation is both crowded and unsettled at the same time.  On paper, Jeimer Candelario, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte are lined up at the top choices to see time at the corner infield slots and (probably moreso in Encarnacion-Strand’s case) at designated hitter.  However, none of this trio hit well in 2024, plus CES missed most of the season due to wrist surgery, and Marte missed the first half of the season due to a PED suspension.

Adding Naylor’s big bat at first base would add a lot more certainty to this mix, and since Naylor is only under team control through the 2025 season, there would be plenty of time down the road for Encarnacion-Strand and Marte to develop into regulars in Cincinnati’s lineup.  Naylor is coming off another quality season with the Guardians, hitting .243/.320/.456 with a career-high 31 homers over 633 PA.

Given the profiles of the two players, it is fair to speculate that the Guardians might be more willing to trade Thomas in a pure salary-dump type of move, whereas Cleveland would want a more prominent return in exchange for Naylor.  As noted earlier, the Reds’ apparent lack of financial flexibility will make things tricky for Krall’s front office, so fitting Naylor’s projected $12MM salary might be an even greater challenge, even if Naylor offers more upside.

Guardians Open To Trade Offers On Josh Naylor, Lane Thomas

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The Guardians are open to trade offers on first baseman Josh Naylor and outfielder Lane Thomas, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It’s unclear at this point which teams may be involved or if substantial offers have already been received.

The fact that the players are potentially available is not surprising. At the end of October, just as the offseason was getting going, MLBTR put both on our list of potential trade candidates for this winter. Like many lower-spending clubs, the Guardians are generally willing to consider trades of players as they get more expensive and their window of club control shrinks. These two players are just one year away from free agency, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting Naylor for a $12MM salary and Thomas for $8.3MM.

Those are perfectly acceptable prices for those players but considering trades at this juncture is how clubs like the Guardians, Rays and Brewers operate. By consistently trading a year or two of a solid but somewhat expensive player for younger, cheaper and more controllable alternatives, the organizations stay continually well stocked with talent. That allows the clubs to stay fairly consistently competitive despite a lack of spending in free agency. The Guards have gone down this path before with players like Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber and others in previous years.

Naylor, 28 in June, has been a consistent spark in the Cleveland lineup for three years now. He doesn’t walk a ton but avoids strikeouts and has popped at least 17 home runs in each of the past three campaigns, including 31 in the most recent season. He has a combined .267/.330/.465 batting line over those three years for a 121 wRC+, indicating he was 21% better than league average in that stretch.

Defensively, the metrics have been fairly kind to him overall. With almost 3,000 innings of first base work under his belt, he’s produced 10 Outs Above Average. His mark of -4 Defensive Runs Saved is obviously less impressive but that metric had him above average before a -6 grade in 2024, which might be an odd outlier.

Putting the offense and defense together, plus a few steals here and there, Naylor has been worth about two or three wins above replacement per year in that stretch. For his salary, that should give him plenty of appeal this offseason.

The free agent market features some big-name first basemen like Pete Alonso, Christian Walker and Paul Goldschmidt, but each of those will be costly. Alonso and Walker are both lined up for nice multi-year deals and each of them also rejected a qualifying offer, meaning they are tied to the forfeiture of draft picks and maybe international bonus pool money as well. Goldschmidt didn’t get a QO and may be limited to a one-year deal because of his age, but there’s still plenty of risk in such an investment since he struggled a bit in 2024. For clubs that don’t want to pay those kinds of prices or simply miss out in the bidding there, they could give the Guardians a call.

Thomas, 29, likely has less appeal on the trade market. His projected salary is a little lower but his ability to contribute is also a bit narrower as he’s a right-handed hitter who is better against lefties. For his career, he has slashed .302/.366/.514 with the platoon advantage for a 140 wRC+, but .223/.290/.391 against righties for an 87 wRC+. Defensively, he can play all three outfield positions, with the metrics considering him around league average in center.

The platoon splits suggest he would be best utilized in a part-time role, but the lack of center field options in free agency could work in his favor. Harrison Bader is the top of the free agent class as a solid defender but with a subpar bat.

There is risk in Cleveland subtracting bats, as their offense wasn’t their strongest asset in 2024. Their elite bullpen carried them to the postseason, with the team hitting a collective .238/.307/.395 for a 100 wRC+. It was even worse the year before, as they hit .250/.313/.381 in 2023 for a 91 wRC+ with the lowest home run tally in the majors. Removing Naylor or Thomas from the lineup would be a gamble but the Guards would have fallback options. Kyle Manzardo could take over for Naylor as an everyday first baseman while players like Will Brennan, Tyler Freeman or Ángel Martínez could take over in center.

Naturally, a trade coming together would depend on what other clubs are offering. For Thomas in particular, the Guards just gave up a three-player package to get him from the Nationals at the deadline, surrendering Alex Clemmey, José Tena and Rafael Ramirez. Clemmey was just drafted with a second-round pick in 2023 and given a $2.3MM bonus, so that was a significant sacrifice. They likely wouldn’t flip Thomas just to get anything in return.

The Guardians are reportedly looking into the outfield market and could use some help in the rotation as well, so there may be a bit of musical chairs happening here. Perhaps a trade of Naylor and/or Thomas could be used to add some young talent to the system, with the cost savings redirected to replacing some of the lost production on the major league roster. RosterResource projects the club for a $98MM payroll in 2025, right around where they were to start 2024.

Teams like the Royals, Reds, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox, Orioles and others are reportedly looking for outfield help or make sense for a right-handed addition, while clubs like the Pirates, Tigers, Astros, Nationals, Mariners, Yankees, Diamondbacks and others could be looking for help at first base.

MLBTR Podcast: Trade Deadline Recap

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • Were the prospect prices high in this year’s trades? Is this a new normal due to the expanded playoffs creating a seller’s market? (2:15)
  • The three-team trade involving the Dodgers, White Sox, Cardinals, Erick Fedde, Miguel Vargas and others (15:40)
  • The Rays and Cubs, the buy-sell tightrope and the trade involving Isaac Paredes and Christopher Morel (29:30)
  • The Astros acquire Yusei Kikuchi from the Blue Jays for a three-player package and the connection to the the Dodgers acquiring Jack Flaherty from the Tigers but the Yankees reportedly being scared off by his medicals (48:00)
  • The Guardians acquire Alex Cobb from the Giants and acquire Lane Thomas from the Nationals (58:35)
  • The Orioles acquire Trevor Rogers from the Marlins and acquire Zach Eflin from the Rays (1:09:10)
  • Will teams have to be more aggressive in the offseason going forward if the expanded playoffs will make less good players available at the deadline? (1:20:35)
  • The Rockies and Angels held onto a lot of trade candidates (1:23:35)
  • The Marlins leaned in hard to seller status (1:31:40)
  • The Padres built a super bullpen (1:44:50)
  • The Braves acquire Jorge Soler from the Giants (1:47:40)
  • The Royals acquire Lucas Erceg from the Athletics (1:54:40)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Trade Deadline Preview – listen here
  • Top Trade Candidates, Hunter Harvey To KC And The Current State Of The Rays And Mets – listen here
  • Brewers’ Pitching Needs, Marlins Rumors And The Nats Prepare To Sell – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Guardians Acquire Lane Thomas

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The Guardians have landed outfielder Lane Thomas in a trade with the Nationals, both teams announced. A trio of prospects — left-hander Alex Clemmey and infielders Jose Tena and Rafael Ramirez — are going back to Washington.

It was almost exactly three years ago that Thomas was part of another prominent deadline trade, coming to Washington from the Cardinals in exchange for Jon Lester.  The move to the Nats and more consistent playing time unlocked something in Thomas, who performed brilliantly over the remainder of the 2021 season and then settled into a regular role in the Nationals’ outfield over the last three years.  This season, Thomas has hit .253/.331/.407 with eight homers and 28 steals (out of 40 attempts) over 341 plate appearances, despite missing about a month of action with a sprained MCL.

Thomas’ emergence in Washington was soon followed by more trade speculation, as it wasn’t clear whether or not the Nationals would view this newfound breakout player as a building block, or as a trade asset to aid in their rebuild.  Today’s move answers that question, as the Nats have dealt Thomas (who turns 29 next month) in the second of his three arbitration-eligible seasons.  Thomas is earning $5.45MM this season and will be in for a raise next year before hitting the free agency market in the 2025-26 offseason.

This extra year of control added to Thomas’ trade value, and ironically, the Guards themselves have traditionally looked to deal such increasingly-pricey players as they approach the end of their team control.  With Cleveland in first place in the AL Central, the Guardians have instead looked to bolster their roster in major fashion, as Thomas can step right in as the team’s new regular right fielder.  The left-handed hitting Will Brennan should still get a decent chunk of at-bats since Thomas has been much better against southpaws than against right-handed pitchers this season, but Thomas brings a needed right-handed bat to a Cleveland lineup perhaps a bit overloaded with lefty-swingers and switch-hitters.

The Guardians are opting for extra hitting over defense here, as Thomas’ public defensive metrics (-9 Defensive Runs Saved, -8.1 UZR/150, -7 Outs Above Average) have been very lacking.  Cleveland has traditionally prioritized glovework in the outfield, yet while the lineup’s production has been better in 2024 than in recent seasons, Guards hitters have provided roughly average numbers league-wide.  It seems quite possible the Guardians might still address their bigger need for rotation help before tomorrow’s deadline, but the Thomas trade is a key first step towards upgrading the roster for the stretch run.

From Washington’s perspective, the three-player package is a nice return for a season and two months’ worth of Thomas’ services.  The Nationals have added one MLB-ready player in Tena who has already gotten some time in the Show, and two longer-term assets, including a noteworthy pitching prospect in Clemmey.

Cleveland’s second-round pick in the 2023 draft, Clemmey is just 11 days removed from his 19th birthday, and he has a 4.67 ERA over 69 1/3 innings at A-level Lynchburg this season.  Clemmey has struck out batters at an impressive 32.6% rate, but his 15.8% walk rate is evidence of some control issues early in his pro career.

Baseball America ranked Clemmey seventh among Guardians prospects and MLB Pipeline had him eighth on their list, with both outlets wowed by his high-90s fastball.  The fastball earned a 70 grade from both scouting reports and his curveball received a 60, giving him some impressive upside for rotation work if he can develop at least one more quality offering.  While projections might be a bit difficult for such a young pitcher, Clemmey already looks like he could be a quality reliever, though obviously the Nationals will fully explore his potential as a starter.

Ramirez was ranked 20th in BA’s list of Guardians prospects and 22nd by MLB Pipeline.  He is the son of former Braves/Astros infielder Rafael Ramirez Sr., and while the elder Ramirez spent most of his 13 Major League seasons at shortstop, the 19-year-old Ramirez might eventually end up as a third baseman or second baseman, as per the scouting reports.  Ramirez is in his third year of pro ball and hasn’t hit much in A-ball this season after posting much bigger numbers in rookie ball in 2023.

Tena made his big league debut in the form of 18 games and 34 PA for Cleveland last season, and he has appeared in three games for the Guards in 2024.  An international signing in 2017, Tena has spent his whole career in Cleveland’s farm system, and he has an eye-popping .308/.365/.522 slash line and 22 homers in 494 career PA at the Triple-A level.

Despite these big numbers, the 23-year-old Tena always seemed to be a bit of an odd man out amidst the Guards’ infield picture, especially with Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez locking down two positions.  Tena’s big strikeout numbers probably didn’t play well within a Cleveland organization that prizes contact hitting, but he’ll now get another opportunity in the District.  The Nationals have an infield cornerstone of their own in CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. has done well to re-establish himself as a regular second baseman, though Tena could potentially look to make an impact at third base or in a utility role.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (X link) was the first to report that Cleveland acquired Thomas, and FanSided’s Robert Murray (via X) reported that Clemmey was part of the trade package.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan specified that the Nationals would be receiving three players in return for Thomas, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was the first to report on the inclusion of Tena and Ramirez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Royals Interested In Luis Rengifo, Taylor Ward

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The Royals are looking to add a right-handed hitter, reports Jayson Stark of the Athletic (via Ken Rosenthal’s latest column). The Angels’ Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward are under consideration, as is Washington’s Lane Thomas.

Rengifo is a switch-hitter who does more damage from the right side. Ward and Thomas are strictly right-handed bats. Rengifo is the most valuable of the trio. He’s having the best season of the group and provides the most defensive flexibility. Rengifo isn’t a great defender but he can bounce between second and third base and moonlight at shortstop. He wouldn’t need to worry about the latter position in Kansas City. The Royals have gotten very little offense out of Maikel Garcia at the hot corner. Lefty-swinging second baseman Michael Massey was playing well early in the season before slumping this month.

The 27-year-old Rengifo would be a significant offensive upgrade. He goes into play tonight with a .308/.352/.432 slash across 285 plate appearances. It’s his second straight above-average offensive performance. Rengifo makes a ton of contact, fitting the Royals’ general style of hitter. He topped 15 homers in both 2022 and ’23. This year’s production has been more OBP-oriented as he has cut his strikeout rate to a personal-low 13% clip. Over the past two and a half seasons, he owns a massive .328/.368/.555 slash against left-handed pitching.

Thomas and Ward have a more limited defensive profile as corner outfielders. The Royals could certainly look to upgrade in left field, where MJ Melendez was underperforming before landing on the injured list. Thomas might be more of a platoon target. He mashes southpaws but posts below-average numbers against same-handed pitching. Since landing in Washington at the 2021 trade deadline, he has tattooed lefties at a .310/.371/.525 clip. He’s hitting .231/.294/.398 versus righties in that time. Thomas has had similarly stark splits this season and has a league average .247/.323/.397 slash in aggregate.

Ward has looked like an All-Star caliber player at his best, highlighted by a .281/.360/.473 season two years ago. His production has been more pedestrian over the past season and a half, as his line has hovered around league average. Over 424 plate appearances this year, the former first-round pick has a .226/.309/.396 line. As with Thomas, Ward does an inordinate amount of his damage with the platoon advantage. He’s hitting .294/.365/.468 against lefties since the start of 2022. His .243/.328/.423 slash versus right-handed pitching over that stretch is more solid than elite.

All three players are under team control beyond this season. (Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweeted this afternoon that the Royals would be reluctant to relinquish players at the top of their thin farm system for rentals.) Rengifo and Thomas are eligible for arbitration through next year, while Ward is controllable until the 2026-27 offseason. They’re each similarly costly from a financial perspective. Rengifo’s the lowest-paid of the group at $4.4MM, while Thomas is most expensive at $5.45MM. The prospect cost should be highest for Rengifo, who’ll have broad appeal in a market that’s very light on infield talent.

Phillies Showing Interest In Lane Thomas, Kyle Finnegan

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The Phillies are about as well-positioned as any team with the deadline approaching. While Philadelphia has tailed off lately and is playing at a .500 pace this month, they’re nine games clear of the Braves in the NL East. They hold a three-game edge on the Dodgers for the top record in the National League and have arguably the most well-rounded roster in MLB.

They’re obviously positioned as buyers and should at least make some additions around the margins. They’ve been seeking a right-handed hitting outfielder for the last couple weeks. The bullpen has fallen on hard times this month, making that another obvious area for potential upgrade.

One of Philadelphia’s division rivals would make for a natural trade partner. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that the Phils have expressed interest in Nationals’ outfielder Lane Thomas and closer Kyle Finnegan. Washington could market both players, each of whom is under arbitration control for one more season. The Nats are considering offers on players they control for this season and next. They already dealt one such player, setup man Hunter Harvey, to the Royals in one of the more impactful moves in what has been a slow-moving deadline season.

Thomas is a right-handed hitter who does the vast majority of his damage in favorable platoon situations. He is destroying lefties at a .329/.414/.518 clip over 99 plate appearances this season. While a half-season platoon split is an extremely small sample, Thomas has been a lefty masher throughout his career. He’s a .307/.369/.520 hitter against southpaws. Thomas has produced below-average numbers versus righties. That has again been the case this year, as he’s hitting .211/.269/.347 without the platoon advantage.

The Nats have maintained they view Thomas as more than a short-side platoon bat. He has been in the starting lineup for 73 of the team’s 102 games. That includes a couple starts in center field, but Thomas is best served in a corner. He’s a middling defender even in right field.

Thomas isn’t the answer if the Phils are looking to upgrade over Johan Rojas in center field. Philadelphia would like a lefty-hitting complement for Brandon Marsh in left. Marsh has been an above-average bat (.274/.350/.448) against righties over his career. He hasn’t done anything against left-handers, striking out more than 40% of the time en route to a .211/.268/.289 slash.

Gelb writes that the Phillies aren’t exclusively looking at right-handed hitters in their outfield search. They could upgrade on either Rojas or Nick Castellanos in right if they landed an everyday player. A Thomas-Marsh platoon in left would yield excellent results, although it remains to be seen if the Phils are willing to meet Washington’s asking price to immediately curtail Thomas’ playing time. The 28-year-old outfielder is playing on a $5.45MM salary.

Finnegan is a more valuable trade asset. He was a first-time All-Star this summer after a few seasons of quietly strong work at the back of the Washington ’pen. Finnegan has worked as their closer for most of the past four years. After three straight seasons allowing between three and four earned runs per nine, he carries a 2.32 mark over 42 2/3 frames. Finnegan is 28 of 32 in save chances and has solid peripherals.

The righty has fanned 26% of batters faced against an 8.3% walk percentage. He’s sitting north of 97 MPH with his fastball and is getting swinging strikes at a decent 11.8% clip. Finnegan’s stuff is probably a tick below that of the top handful of relievers in the game, but he’s a consistently effective presence with ample ninth inning experience.

Philadelphia’s closing situation has been in flux with José Alvarado scuffling lately. Gregory Soto took the ninth in a tied game today against Minnesota. He hit a batter and allowed a walk-off single after a sacrifice bunt. Soto has been prone to bouts of wildness throughout his career, making him an imperfect fit for the ninth. Finnegan, who is making $5.1MM, has been a much more consistent strike-thrower.

Thomas and Finnegan may be obvious fits for the Phillies’ needs, but they’re surely two of many players the front office is considering. Acquiring either player (or both, in a package deal) could be complicated by the difficulty of trading within the division. Detroit’s Mark Canha, Oakland’s Brent Rooker and the Angels’ Kevin Pillar are among other righty-hitting outfielders who’d make sense as speculative targets. (USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tied the Phils to Rooker earlier this month.) There are no shortage of relievers who’ll move in the next few days, with Miami’s Tanner Scott and the Halos’ Carlos Estévez clear candidates as rental closers on bad teams.

One area which is evidently not a priority: the rotation. Gelb writes that the Phils are not emphasizing the starting staff and remain reluctant to part with their top prospects. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted yesterday that the Phils were discussing Garrett Crochet and Jack Flaherty. Philadelphia already has a strong starting five, so it’d be very surprising to see them beat offers by other teams that much more desperately need rotation help for those top-of-the-market starters.

Nationals Notes: Thomas, Finnegan, Cavalli

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Nationals GM Mike Rizzo spoke to reporters, including Bobby Blanco of MASN, yesterday for the first time since the club shipped right-hander Hunter Harvey to the Royals in exchange for third base prospect Cayden Wallace and the 39th selection in the 2024 draft. Rizzo was effusive in his praise of Harvey, who he described as an “organizational success story,” but noted that he felt that the trade was “important for us to do…for the future of the franchise.”

The topic of the Harvey deal, which occurred in spite of the right-hander being under team control for the 2025 season, led naturally to questions regarding the status of outfielder Lane Thomas and closer Kyle Finnegan, both of whom are also under control for one season after 2024. When asked the availability of the pair, Rizzo confirmed that both are available, though he emphasized that the extra year of control means he isn’t necessarily in a rush to trade either player. When discussing Thomas, Rizzo said that because the club has him under control beyond the 2024 campaign, “we’re going to do a deal that we’re comfortable with. And if we don’t, we won’t do a deal.” He went on to say that he viewed Finnegan “The same way, exactly” and that the club was “not going to get rid of [Finnegan] easy.”

While it’s not entirely clear what the Nationals’ current asking price is for either Thomas or Finnegan, it’s hardly a surprise that the club’s GM is indicating that he won’t be dealing either player unless his price is met. Thomas, 29 next month, has been a steady regular for the Nationals throughout their rebuild with a .256/.317/.438 slash line (106 wRC+) since first joining the club partway through the 2021 season. He enjoyed something of a breakout season last year, slugging 28 home runs while swiping 20 bases and hitting a solid .268/.315/.468 in 156 games for the Nats. Thomas hasn’t hit for quite as much power in 2024 but has been an even more prolific base stealer, swiping 24 bags in just 306 trips to the plate so far this year. In a market without many quality hitters who are obviously available, it’s easy to imagine Thomas getting interest from clubs looking for help in the outfield such as the Mariners, Dodgers, or Phillies.

As for Finnegan, the 32-year-old is in the midst of a career year in his fourth season as the Nationals’ closer. In 40 2/3 innings of work this year, the righty has already racked up 26 saves while pitching to a sterling 2.43 ERA and striking out a solid 25.8% of batters faced. Home runs have been an issue for Finnegan in his career as he’s allowed 15.7% of his fly balls to leave the yard, including 16.7% this year. That’s left him with a somewhat pedestrian 4.05 FIP, but his lengthy track record as a quality high-leverage relief arm with Washington (where he’s posted a career 3.37 ERA in 267 1/3 innings of work) should nonetheless make him among the most attractive relief arms available for teams in need for help in the late innings.

In other Nationals news, manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASN) that longtime top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli has been dealing with a bout of “dead arm” while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery he underwent in early 2023. That issue was compounded further by Cavalli catching the flu, and that led the Nationals to restart the right-hander’s throwing program. The right-hander last appeared in a minor league rehab game on June 21 and has only just begun to ramp back up, though Martinez suggested that the club still expects him to pitch this year. Cavalli has just one big league start under his belt but looked good at the Triple-A level during his last full season back in 2022, when he posted a 3.71 ERA in 20 starts while striking out 25.9% of batters faced.

Nationals Preparing To Be Deadline Sellers

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The Nationals have been on the periphery of the postseason picture for much of the season but are preparing to approach the trade deadline as a seller, per Ken Rosenthal, Katie Woo and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Washington will be open to offers both on potential free agents and players signed/controlled for only one additional season, per the report. The Nats’ group of impending free agents include outfielder Jesse Winker, lefty Patrick Corbin, righty reliever Dylan Floro, struggling slugger Joey Gallo and the currently injured Trevor Williams. Of even more interest will be outfielder Lane Thomas, setup man Hunter Harvey and closer Kyle Finnegan, each of whom is controlled through the 2025 season via arbitration.

The vibe in D.C. is high at the moment following the debut of top-ranked prospect James Wood and the All-Star selection of shortstop CJ Abrams. But Washington has dropped 11 of its past 15 games to fall seven under .500. At 16.5 games back in the NL East, there’s no hope of surging back to the front of the division, and in the Wild Card chase, the Nats are 5.5 games back of the third spot with six teams to pass in order to get into the fray.

The Nationals are already three years into a rebuilding process that kicked off in 2021 with trades of Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber (among many others) and continued into the summer of 2022 with the deadline blockbuster that shipped Juan Soto to San Diego in exchange for a package of five young players headlined by Abrams, Wood and current staff leader MacKenzie Gore. Selling off some short-term pieces at this year’s deadline isn’t a sign that said plan has faltered or a setback necessarily; for much of the season, the Nats appeared ahead of schedule but are now settling into the type of position most expected them to occupy heading into the 2024 campaign.

Among Washington’s slate of rental players, Winker stands as the most productive healthy option. He’s back in vintage form after a pair of seasons ruined by knee and neck injuries that both required surgery in the 2022-23 offseason. In 337 trips to the plate, the former Reds, Brewers and Mariners outfielder is hitting .268/.382/.436 with ten home runs and a career-high 12 steals. Winker’s 13.6% walk rate is more than five percentage points ahead of the league average, and he’s striking out at a manageable 22.3% clip.

Winker has long had platoon issues, but the Nats have given him 80 plate appearances against southpaws this season and he’s held his own, hitting .250/.344/.363. It should be noted that his small-sample production against lefties is aided by a bulky .358 average on balls in play and comes in spite of a huge 29% strikeout rate (10 points higher than his mark against righties). Winker probably can’t be expected to continue his output against lefties, but he’s punishing righties just as he always has when healthy: .275/.397/.465 with nine of his 10 home runs and six of his 17 doubles. Winker signed a minor league deal with a $2MM base salary, making him an ultra-affordable option for any team seeking a quality left-handed bat to add to its DH/outfield mix.

Floro, 33, is in the midst of a nice rebound season. He’s on a one-year, $2.25MM deal and has produced 43 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA ball. His 20.5% strikeout rate is a couple percentage points shy of average, but his 6.4% walk rate is a couple points better than par. Floro sports a strong 50.4% grounder rate as well. However, he’s yet to allow even one home run this season, and it’s not sustainable for any pitcher to see every single one of his fly-balls stay in the park. Metrics like SIERA (3.50) and xFIP (3.45), which normalize homer-to-flyball rate, view Floro as a solid arm but not the dominant force his raw ERA might suggest. He should still draw plenty of interest as an affordable veteran with some track record.

Corbin’s $35MM salary is going to nullify any trade interest unless the Nats are willing to pay down almost the entire sum. The first season of his six-year, $140MM contract with the Nats went beautifully, as Corbin helped lead a deep rotation and stepped up as a key postseason arm en route to Washington’s Cinderella World Series run. He’s posted a 5.60 ERA since, including a 5.49 mark in 100 frames this year.

That said, the veteran has been pitching well of late. Corbin sports a 4.53 ERA dating back to Memorial Day weekend and has delivered a 3.81 ERA in 28 1/3 frames over his past five starts. A team just looking for some veteran innings in the five spot could look at Corbin as a cheap solution if the Nats eat most or all of the remaining salary.

If healthy, Williams might stand as the clearest and most coveted rental piece the Nats have to offer. He made 11 starts, and though he was averaging just five frames per appearances, Williams logged a pristine 2.22 ERA with a solid 21% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. As with Floro, he’s been extremely fortunate with home runs (just two in 56 2/3 frames), and a solid but unspectacular K-BB profile points to some ERA regression if that home run trend doesn’t continue. But Williams is in the second season of a two-year, $13MM contract and would be an affordable rotation option. He’s been out since early June with a strained muscle in his forearm.

Also on the injured list is Gallo, who was struggling at career-worst levels prior to a hamstring strain. He’s hitting .164/.285/.321 with a glaring 43% strikeout rate and five homers in 165 plate appearances. Between that line and Gallo’s injury, it’s hard to envision any trade value even if he’s healthy enough to return before July 30. He’s more a DFA candidate than a trade candidate.

Looking to the Nationals’ more controllable pieces, Thomas and the bullpen duo of Finnegan and Harvey will draw wide-reaching interest. A deal for Thomas could be difficult to line up, depending on how the Nats price him. At last year’s deadline, Washington was valuing Thomas as an everyday outfielder, whereas many other clubs were viewing him more as a potential platoon piece.

That perception from other clubs won’t be different in 2024. Thomas has never hit righties much but is slashing a dismal .208/.262/.343 against them in 2024. Conversely, he’s always hit well against southpaws and is even better than his career line in 2024, hitting .338/.407/.563. Thomas is an absolute menace to southpaw pitchers, and he’s perhaps deceptively fast. Statcast ranks him in the 94th percentile of MLB players in average sprint speed, and Thomas has already swiped 21 bags — though he’s also been caught seven times. He’s making $5.45MM this season and will be owed one more raise in arbitration this winter before hitting free agency post-2025.

Both Finnegan and Harvey are on track for free agency in the 2025-26 offseason as well. Finnegan has saved 23 games and posted a tidy 2.17 ERA in 37 1/3 frames. He’s averaged a hefty 97.4 mph on his heater while recording a 26.5% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 42.7% ground-ball rate. After a rough start in terms of his command, Finnegan has reined in the walks, yielding only a 5.8% rate over his past 32 innings.

Harvey was arguably even more appealing for much of the season, though a recent rough patch could have altered that. His $2.325MM salary is less than half Finnegan’s $5.1MM mark, he throws even harder, and his strikeout/walk/ground-ball rates were the better of the two for the bulk of the current campaign.

Some recent struggles have ballooned Harvey’s ERA to 4.40 — more than two runs higher than the 2.08 mark he carried into the month of June. He’s been tagged for 14 runs in his past 12 2/3 innings. In that time, he’s walked 9.1% of his opponents (more than double his rate over the first two months) and been tagged for a grisly 2.13 homers per nine frames. For a pitcher with a lengthy injury history — Harvey still has just 166 2/3 career innings despite debuting in 2019 — that could be a particular concern among bullpen-needy clubs. But the affordable salary, extra year of control, 98.1 mph average heater and K-BB profile should all generate interest.

One other name to consider is journeyman righty Derek Law, who’s posted a 3.35 ERA in 53 2/3 innings of relief already and is controllable through 2025. Law has fanned 21.2% of opponents against a 6.2% walk rate but has been wildly inconsistent dating back to his 2016 debut campaign. He’s earning $1.5MM this season and could be a sensible middle-innings arm for a team looking at low-cost means of deepening the ’pen.

Nats Notes: Deadline, Winker, Hassell, Wood, Crews

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The Nationals have received trade interest in veterans Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Lane Thomas but haven’t considered dealing any veteran pieces just yet, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Washington, even with a sub-.500 record (35-36), is tied with the Padres for the final Wild Card spot in the National League at the moment and has not yet made a determination on how to approach this year’s trade deadline, Morosi adds.

It’s sensible for teams to inquire with the Nats, who entered the season as a playoff long-shot after spending the past two years in a rebuilding pattern. The Nats have outplayed expectations thanks to myriad factors (e.g. breakouts from MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams; a stronger-than-expected debut for lefty Mitchell Parker; a big step forward by CJ Abrams; a rebound by Jesse Winker). Those positive developments, plus widespread mediocrity in the National League, have thrust the Nationals into postseason conversations in mid-June. Williams’ recent flexor strain is a big damper on the team’s solid showing this year, but it’s only natural that GM Mike Rizzo and his staff aren’t yet ready to concede that they’ll be deadline sellers.

The next six weeks will be pivotal for the Nats. Holding the status quo or even playing winning ball between now and July 30 could push the Nationals to function as buyers. They may not be keen on dealing prospects for short-term rentals in a season like this, but targeting some names with multiple years of club control remaining feels plausible. On the other side of the coin, if the Nats fall a few games back in the standings and/or incur further injury problems of note, then listening on short-term veterans would be far likelier.

All three of the names listed by Morosi are controlled only through the 2025 season. Finnegan and Harvey would both draw widespread interest among contenders, given the perennial demand for bullpen help among playoff hopefuls. Harvey, in particular, has been dominant with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate en route to a 2.75 ERA. Finnegan leads the team with 20 saves and a terrific 1.78 ERA, though he’s benefited hugely from a microscopic .157 BABIP and a sky-high 94.7% strand rate — neither of which feels sustainable long-term.

Thomas drew interest at last summer’s trade deadline, but he’s likely someone the Nats value more than many of the teams seeking to acquire him. Washington reportedly priced him like an everyday player on last summer’s trade market — which is also how they use him — but Thomas carries enormous platoon splits and could be seen by other clubs as a player best deployed in a timeshare. He’s batting .327/.390/.588 against lefties this season (166 wRC+) but has an awful .196/.256/.330 output against righties (65 wRC+). His career splits aren’t quite that dramatic but are quite stark: .305/.364/.524 versus left-handers (141 wRC+) compared to .223/.290/.392 versus right-handers (86 wRC+).

The next few weeks will be pivotal for Rizzo and his lieutenants as they chart a course for this year’s deadline planning. If the Nats fall several games out of the race, all three of the names listed by Morosi could feasibly hit the market, and they likely wouldn’t be alone. Third baseman Nick Senzel and reliever Derek Law are also only controlled through 2025 as well. Veterans Dylan Floro and Eddie Rosario are free agents at the end of the current season, as are the aforementioned Williams and Winker.

Speaking of Winker, he had an injury scare over the weekend when he felt knee pain after taking a big turn at first base, slamming on the brakes and (unsuccessfully) diving back to the bag. He exited the game two innings later. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports that Winker underwent an MRI that thankfully came back clean. He’s listed as day-to-day for now.

Winker, 30, isn’t hitting for much power this season but is drawing walks at his typically lofty rate (13.4%) and has made significantly better contact than he did over the past two seasons in a pair of down years with the Mariners and Brewers. He’s batting .265/.378/.390 with six homers and ten doubles through 268 plate appearances. Like Thomas, he’s better utilized in a platoon setting but has been an everyday player in Washington. Winker, to his credit, has a roughly league-average .239/.345/.338 slash in 84 plate appearances against fellow lefties, but he’s a career .210/.325/.338 hitter (89 wRC+) in left-on-left situations, compared to .279/.383/.467 (130 wRC+) against righties.

Eventual trades of Winker, Rosario and/or Thomas could open the door for any number of Nationals farmhands at the big league level. One near-MLB-ready option, Robert Hassell III, doesn’t seem as though he’ll be an option anytime soon, however. The Nats placed Hassell on the minor league injured list last week, and TalkNats.com reports that he’s dealing with another wrist injury and that the team plans to proceed cautiously. Hassell has had multiple wrist injuries in the past, including a broken hamate bone that necessitated surgery.

One of the most notable prospects acquired in the Nationals’ blockbuster trade of Juan Soto to the Padres, Hassell opened the season with a .278/.369/.369 slash in 215 plate appearances at the Double-A level. Those numbers don’t jump out, but they’re about 14% better than average in his currently pitcher-friendly environment, by measure of wRC+. They’re also a sizable step forward from the .225/.316/.324 batting line recorded by Hassell at the same minor league level last year (476 plate appearances).

Both Hassell and uber-prospect James Wood are on the minor league injured list at the moment — the latter due to a hamstring strain. Wood, in particular, could be an option to make his big league debut later this summer, with Andrew Golden of The Washington Post relaying on X today that Wood could return to game action this week. But Hassell could force his way into that conversation as well if he’s cleared to return sooner than later and continues to show improvement over last season. His prospect stock has taken a notable hit since the time of that swap, but he’s maintained strong plate discipline (11.6% walk rate) and cut his strikeout rate from last year’s alarming 31.9% to a far more palatable 21.4% in 2024.

Dylan Crews will also be in the mix, as he’s being promoted to Triple-A, per @PROducerIOTB on X. That’s come on the heels of Crews hitting .274/.343/.446 in Double-A this year while stealing 15 bases.

Nationals Request Unconditional Release Waivers On Victor Robles

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JUNE 1: The Nationals announced that they have requested unconditional release waivers on Robles.  The Talk Nats blog reported earlier today that the team was looking for a trade partner for Robles, but Washington will now instead move on from Robles entirely since it appears no deal was found.

MAY 27: The Nationals announced today that outfielder Lane Thomas has been reinstated from the injured list with fellow outfielder Víctor Robles designated for assignment in a corresponding move. The club’s 40-man roster count drops to 38.

Robles, now 27, was once the club’s top prospect and one of the top prospects in the entire league. Per the rankings from Baseball America, he was the Nationals’ #1 prospect in three straight years from 2017 to 2019. He was also on BA’s top 100 league-wide list from 2016 to 2019, getting as high as #5 overall going into 2018.  The expectation at that time was that Robles had the capability of being an all-around contributor and a long-term part of the outfield in Washington.

Things seemed to be in a good place in 2019, the year the Nats won the World Series. Robles hit 17 home runs and slashed .255/.326/.419. Despite the long balls, his 5.7% walk rate kept the on-base low and the wRC+ of 92 indicates he was actually a bit below average offensively overall. But thanks to above-average defense and stealing 28 bases, FanGraphs credited him as being worth 3.7 wins above replacement in his age-22 season.

Given his youth, the Nats undoubtedly expected him to continue evolving as a hitter as he aged. Unfortunately, things moved in the opposite direction in the years to come. From 2020 to 2022, Robles got into 291 games with the Nats but hit just .216/.291/.306 in that time for a wRC+ of 66. The club’s fortunes also faded in that time and they entered a rebuilding phase.

That theoretically left Robles with plenty of playing time to get back on track, but his health hasn’t really allowed him to do so. He only got into 36 games last year due to back spasms in the lumbar spine. He did perform well when on the field, hitting a solid .299/.385/.364, but hasn’t carried that over in 2024. He spent about a month on the injured list due to left hamstring strain and has produced a brutal line of .120/.281/.120 in the 14 games he has played.

Robles was slated to reach free agency after the 2024 campaign and the Nationals were likely hoping for a nice run of play this season, at least allowing them to flip Robles for something at the deadline before he slipped away from them for nothing. Unfortunately, his performance hasn’t inspired much confidence and they are cutting him off the roster today.

They will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers, though any interest is likely to be fairly modest after years of poor performance and injury absences. He’s making a salary of $2.65MM this year, with still about two thirds of that left to be paid out. Perhaps the Nats will try to eat some of that money to facilitate a deal but it’s also possible that Robles just ends up released. He has enough service time that he can reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency while keeping all that money intact.

It’s undeniably been a disappointing few years and hardly what the club had in mind, given the prospect pedigree and the promising start to his career. But for Robles personally, it’s not too late for him to find a second act somewhere. He just turned 27 last week and could perhaps get back on track with a run of good health and the right opportunity.

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