Lance McCullers Jr.

Astros’ ALCS Roster Does Not Include Lance McCullers Jr.

By Steve Adams | October 15, 2021 at 11:16am CDT

The Astros have suffered a notable blow to their ALCS roster, which was announced this morning and does not include ailing right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. His status for the ALCS was up in the air after he exited last round’s decisive Game 4 due to forearm discomfort and underwent a subsequent MRI. The team hasn’t made a formal announcement on McCullers’ injury just yet, so it’s not clear whether he might be able to return for a potential World Series push. Houston also dropped third catcher Garrett Stubbs for their showdown with the Red Sox.

Replacing McCullers and Stubbs on the ALCS roster are right-hander Jake Odorizzi and lefty Blake Taylor. Odorizzi will give the team an additional option in the rotation with McCullers sidelined, while Taylor gives manager Dusty Baker a second southpaw option in the bullpen. Here’s how the roster breaks down…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Brooks Raley
Blake Taylor
Framber Valdez (Game 1 starter)

Catchers

Jason Castro
Martin Maldonado

Infielders

Outfielders

The veteran Odorizzi had a rocky go of things in free agency last winter, as his eventual two-year deal with Houston fell a ways shy of expectations. Many teams opted to barely spend at all in free agency on the heels of a season without ticket revenues, and Odorizzi was one of several players who struggled to find a fit. His contract with the ’Stros was signed well into Spring Training, preventing the righty from getting full ramp-up to the season. Some rust was apparent early on, when Odorizzi gave up nine runs through eight innings total across his first three starts. He hit the injured list with a pronator strain, returned a month later, and looked much more like the version of Odorizzi we’ve generally come to expect.

From May 29 forward, Odorizzi pitched to a 3.72 ERA with a 19.8 percent strikeout rate and 7.7 percent walk rate. The results were generally solid, but Odorizzi averaged fewer than five innings per start as the team rather rigidly opted against letting him face opposing lineups a third time through the order. That led to some vocal frustration from Odorizzi when asked about a quick hook in a postgame press session late in the season, but the right-hander said a day later that things had been smoothed over after an open and candid talk with Baker, pitching coach Brent Strom and general manager James Click.

The exact role Odorizzi will have in the ALCS isn’t clear. He’s stayed in shape and prepared in the event that he’d be added to the roster after being omitted from the ALDS. He could be utilized as a long-relief option, but it’s also plausible that he’ll be called upon to make start in the middle of the series. Houston has only announced Valdez and Garcia as the Game 1 and Game 2 starters for now. Presumably, the Game 3 and Game 4 starters will be decided based on early usage for the staff in the first two games and the broader context of wins and losses in the early going.

Houston’s decision to omit McCullers also creates the possibility that he could be added back to the ALCS roster as an injury replacement, depending on how his forearm progresses. Had the Astros included him on the initial roster and then had to remove him once again, he’d have been rendered ineligible for the World Series, should Houston advance that far.

Looking Ahead To The ALCS Rotations

By TC Zencka | October 14, 2021 at 8:33pm CDT

The Red Sox will go with Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi in the first two games of the ALCS against the Astros, but it’s anyone’s guess as to who might be available for game three.

The uncertainty stems not from an uneven rotation, but from an uncertain group of relievers. Manager Alex Cora’s other available starters – Eduardo Rodriguez, Tanner Houck, and Nick Pivetta – will be available out in the bullpen for the start of the series, writes MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer. That’s a strategy that worked for Cora in the ALDS. Pivetta proved crucial out of the pen against the Rays, a performance redolent of Eovaldi’s own in the 2018 World Series. Houck tossed seven innings of relief in the series as well, yielding just a pair of runs.

Whereas the Red Sox were able to patchwork their bullpen for a four-game series win against the Rays, they will likely need an even more dynamic approach to survive a seven-game tilt against the Astros’ potent offense. There is definite potential for this series to turn into a slugfest, not only because these two clubs boast the first and fifth ranked offenses in the game by runs scored in the regular season, but because the Astros are likely to be without Lance McCullers Jr. Results of the MRI on his sore forearm have yet to be revealed.

McCullers may not be viewed nationally as an ace, he’s been nothing short of stellar in the postseason. He owns a 2.83 ERA in 57 1/3 career postseason innings.

And while McCullers can boast the distinction of having started a game seven of the World Series back in 2017 (a win), he could be replaced by another righty who’s held that honor. Zack Greinke started game seven of the World Series in 2019 for Houston (a loss), and though he’s not likely to put up a full starter’s load, he could be used as an opener in McCullers’ stead, writes The Athletic’s Jack Kaplan. Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier, and Jake Odorizzi are also candidates to pick up bulk innings if McCullers is unavailable.

What we do know is that Framber Valdez will take on Sale in game one, while Luis Garcia will go head-to-head with Eovaldi in game two, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The Red Sox have the experience edge, but Valdez is no stranger to postseason success. Garcia, meanwhile, has at least gotten his feet wet in the playoffs: he had a scoreless two-inning outing in 2020 and 2 2/3 innings as the starter in game three versus the White Sox.

Latest On Lance McCullers Jr.

By Anthony Franco | October 14, 2021 at 1:27pm CDT

1:27 pm: Houston general manager James Click tells Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and other reporters that the club is still evaluating the results of McCullers’ MRI.

12:51 pm: Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. left his final start of the club’s Division Series win over the White Sox after four innings due to some tightness in his forearm. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network now reports (Twitter link) that McCullers is likely unavailable for the upcoming AL Championship Series against the Red Sox, which is scheduled to begin on Friday. However, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that he might be able to return for the World Series, should the Astros advance.

It doesn’t seem to be a long-term concern, as Heyman reported this morning that an MRI suggested McCullers “should be fine in the long run.” That aligns with the pitcher’s initial assessment of the injury, as he told reporters on Tuesday that he didn’t believe the issue to be related to his ligament. McCullers missed the entire 2019 season recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Given that injury history, it’s no surprise the Astros are expected to play things cautiously with McCullers over the coming days. He remains a vital part of the franchise’s long-term future, having signed a five-year, $85MM extension in March that’ll take effect beginning in 2022.

Still, his (presumed) absence will be felt over the upcoming series, as McCullers is arguably the Astros’ top pitcher. This season, he worked 162 1/3 innings of 3.16 ERA/4.01 SIERA ball. As he typically does, the righty posted well above-average strikeout and ground-ball rates (27% and 56.4%, respectively). That offset an elevated 11.1% walk percentage to allow McCullers to post the fifth sub-4.00 ERA season in his six-year MLB career.

In McCullers’ absence, Houston looks likely to turn to some combination of Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Zack Greinke to start against Boston. Jake Odorizzi was a healthy scratch for the Division Series, although he could be brought back onto the ALCS roster in McCullers’ place to offer an additional starting and/or multi-inning relief option.

Postseason Injury Notes: McCullers, La Stella, Belt, Watson

By Steve Adams | October 13, 2021 at 9:48am CDT

Astros righty Lance McCullers Jr. departed after four frames yesterday, and manager Dusty Baker told reporters after the contest that the decision was prompted by the right-hander informing the team of some tightness in his right forearm. Pitching coach Brent Strom said after the game (video link via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that McCullers acknowledged some elbow tightness, but Strom added that he’s remaining “optimistic” that the issue won’t prove to be major. McCullers, who had Tommy John surgery in 2018, told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and others that he doesn’t believe the issue to be ligament-related. The club will surely evaluate him in the coming days as it determines whether McCullers will be able to contribute to the rotation for their ALCS showdown against the Red Sox.

A couple more key injury scenarios to monitor as the postseason field narrows…

Giants infielder Tommy La Stella exited last night’s game with the same Achilles discomfort that has plagued him for the past several weeks, manager Gabe Kapler said after the game (Twitter link via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Despite the ongoing issue, La Stella is expected to be ready to play for tomorrow’s winner-take-all Game 5, per Kapler. There’s an argument to be made for swapping La Stella out for a healthier Thairo Estrada, but removing La Stella from the NLDS roster would also render him ineligible to play in the NLCS. La Stella has three singles in eight at-bats, plus a pair of walks, thus far in the NLDS against the Dodgers. He hit .250/.308/.405 through 242 regular-season plate appearances during the first season of a three-year contract with the Giants. As it stands, the Giants also have Donovan Solano and Wilmer Flores as potential options at second base.
The Giants are also seeing progress from injured first baseman Brandon Belt and left-hander Tony Watson, notes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (Twitter links). Belt, still hoping to return from a fractured left thumb at some point during a potential NLCS or World Series run, took grounders and made some throws yesterday. Any throwing is of some note, given that the fracture is in his throwing hand. Meanwhile, Watson tossed a bullpen session yesterday that went well enough for the Giants to believe he’ll be ready to return for the NLCS, should they qualify. Watson has been out since late September due to a shoulder strain. The 36-year-old pitched to a 2.96 ERA in 24 1/3 innings in his second stint as a Giant after being acquired from the Angels at the trade deadline.

Astros Notes: Click, Luxury Tax, McCullers, Garcia

By Mark Polishuk | June 13, 2021 at 10:58pm CDT

The luxury tax “is a factor,” in what the Astros will do at the trade deadline, GM James Click told broadcaster Robert Ford on the team’s pregame radio show (hat tip to Chandler Rome of The Houston Chronicle). However, Click also noted that the Competitive Balance Tax “is not a hard cap,” which is something of a broad remark that could imply the Astros are willing to exceed the $210MM threshold if necessary, or it could just be a simple statement of fact. Houston is currently quite close to the $210MM threshold — Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the team’s estimated tax number just shy of $207MM, while Roster Resource has the Astros with even less breathing room at roughly $208.8MM.

The Astros exceeded the CBT threshold last year, though since they didn’t top the threshold by more than $20MM and it was their first time in excess, the club paid the minimal first-timer rate of a 20 percent tax on the overage (for a total bill of $3,263,800). For passing the threshold again, the Astros would be taxed at 30 percent of the overage, though that again wouldn’t represent a big payout assuming they stayed under the $230MM mark.

As The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has pointed out, however, if the Astros were tax-payors, their additional penalty would include lesser draft pick compensation if a qualifying-offer rejecting free agent (i.e. Carlos Correa or Justin Verlander) left for another team. It would also cost Houston higher draft picks off their own board as compensatory picks if they were to sign a QO-rejecting free agent of their own. The Astros may have to get creative in adding any sort of salary at the trade deadline if they are to stay under the tax threshold, since doing nothing would seem like a wasted opportunity for a club that has the look of playoff contender.

Astros Injury Notes: Urquidy, Taylor, Gurriel, Alvarez, McCullers

By Mark Polishuk | May 31, 2021 at 12:58pm CDT

The Astros’ long list of injured pitchers will get a bit shorter today, as Jose Urquidy and Blake Taylor have both been activated from the 10-day injured list. Urquidy will get the start in today’s game against the Red Sox. Right-handers Andre Scrubb and Ralph Garza were optioned to Triple-A to make room for Urquidy and Taylor on the active roster.

Urquidy hit the IL on May 16 due to right shoulder discomfort, though that potentially ominous-sounding diagnosis wasn’t considered too serious. The right-hander will indeed return in pretty short order, and he’ll look to continue what has thus far been a solid 2021 season. Urquidy has a 3.22 ERA and a very strong 5.1% walk rate over 44 2/3 innings, though advanced metrics (such as a 4.58 SIERA) haven’t been as impressed with his work. Urquidy has both a low strikeout rate (18.6%) and grounder rate (28.5%), and he has been relying on a lot of soft contact and some batted-ball luck (.242 BABIP) to retire batters.

Taylor has been out of action since suffering a right ankle sprain on April 17, and he has been on a Triple-A rehab assignment since last week. Taylor made his MLB debut last season, and he has a 3.12 ERA, 18.4% strikeout rate, and 12.3% walk rate over 26 total innings in the big leagues. With Kent Emanuel still on the IL, Brooks Raley has been the only other left-hander in Houston’s bullpen, so Taylor’s return will add some depth in that area.

The lineup will continue to be shorthanded, however, as manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome) that neither Yuli Gurriel or Yordan Alvarez are available for today’s game, though both are “close” to returning. Alvarez appears to be the nearest of the two, though Baker said he “nixed” the idea of Alvarez in the lineup in order to give the young slugger another day of recovery.

This will make it five games missed for Alvarez due to a wrist problem, while Gurriel is now on track to miss his third game due to inflammation in his left middle finger. Baker did say Gurriel would return at some point during Houston’s four-game series with the Red Sox that begins today.

“It’s a situation where they’re not hurt badly enough where you can put them on ten days and lose them, so you’d rather wait two or three days extra and not lose them for ten,” Baker said.

The Astros still scored 15 runs in the two games without Gurriel and Alvarez in the lineup, though naturally the team would like to have two of its best hitters back as soon as possible. Both players have hit seven home runs this season, with Gurriel hitting .309/.380/.511 in 205 PA and Alvarez hitting .310/.343/.525 over 169 PA.

Baker also told McTaggart and company that he is hopeful Lance McCullers Jr. can be back in the rotation by the “middle of June.” McCullers was placed on the 10-day IL on May 26 due to right shoulder soreness but, like Urquidy, the issue as thought to be pretty minor. McCullers is playing catch in the outfield today, Baker said. Over 51 2/3 innings this season, McCullers has a 2.96 ERA/4.02 SIERA, despite allowing a lot of hard contact.

Astros Shuffle Rotation With Valdez, Odorizzi Set To Return

By Steve Adams | May 26, 2021 at 3:39pm CDT

Astros skipper Dusty Baker announced several changes to his team’s pitching staff during his Wednesday media session, revealing that lefty Framber Valdez will return from the injured list to make his season debut Friday and Jake Odorizzi will be activated to start Saturday’s game (all Twitter links via Jake Kaplan of The Athletic). That’s the good news, but Baker also announced that righty Lance McCullers Jr. is headed to the 10-day IL due to shoulder soreness. The team does not believe the issue to be serious at this point.

The Astros have also selected the contract of right-hander Ralph Garza from Triple-A Sugar Land. Injured righty Josh James was moved from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL to open a roster spot. Lastly, Baker said right-hander Cristian Javier will be moved to the bullpen to accommodate the returns of Valdez and Odorizzi.

It’s a broad-ranging series of roster moves and role changes that carry significant implications for the Astros’ outlook moving forward. The 27-year-old Valdez broke out as one of the team’s best starters in 2020 and was expected to occupy a key role near the top of the rotation in ’21, but a broken ring finger sustained on a comebacker in Spring Training placed his very season in jeopardy. Valdez opted not to undergo surgery that could have cost him the bulk of the year, and he’ll now return to the mound after missing approximately two months of action.

Valdez stepped up in the wake of Justin Verlander’s injury last year, logging 70 2/3 frames with a 3.57 ERA and even better FIP (2.85) and SIERA (3.23) marks. He fanned a hearty 26.4 percent of his opponents against just a 5.6 percent walk rate — all while inducing grounders at a 60 percent clip that ranked among the game’s best. That combination of missed bats, precise control and grounders is a time-honored recipe for success, and he’ll now look to build on last year’s performance to cement himself as one of the club’s best rotation arms.

Odorizzi, 31, inked a three-year deal with the Astros over the winter (the third of which is a player option that’s unlikely to be exercised but was included as a means of manipulating the luxury tax). He made a pair of starts for the ’Stros earlier this season after a short ramp-up before being placed on the IL with a pronator muscle strain. Those first two outings didn’t go well, but Odorizzi will look to put that pair of outings and an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Twins behind him.

It appears the return of Odorizzi and Valdez will be utilized by the Astros as a means of managing the 24-year-old Javier’s workload. He’s been quite good thus far in 2021, pitching to a 3.14 ERA with a 29.9 percent strikeout rate and a 10.8 percent walk rate. However, the 48 2/3 innings he’s thrown are already just six shy of his entire 2020 total, and there are still more than four months of regular-season play remaining (plus, the Astros hope, additional October ball to be played). A move to the ’pen will allow the ’Stros to more carefully monitor his overall innings count this year.

The role change doesn’t necessarily rule out a return to the rotation later in the season, and based on Javier’s first 103 big league innings, it’d be a shock if the organization didn’t view him as a starter moving forward. He’s pitched to a combined 3.32 ERA with a 27.5 percent strikeout rate and 9.6 percent walk rate through 21 appearances (19 of them starts). With Verlander and Zack Greinke both slated to reach free agency this winter, there could be a fairly straightforward path to rotation work for Javier in 2022 and beyond.

Turning to the other IL moves announced today, the move of James to the 60-day IL is a procedural one that doesn’t really impact his timeline back to the Majors. He’s been out all year while recovering from hip surgery and was said during Spring Training to be targeting a June return. Today’s placement on the 60-day IL merely means that he can’t be activated until May 31, which wasn’t going to happen anyhow.

The departure of McCullers will be felt in the short-term, as he’s logged an excellent 2.96 ERA through his first 51 2/3 frames this year. The right-hander elected to forgo free agency in favor of a five-year, $85MM extension offer from the Astros during Spring Training, and at least to this point, the 27-year-old looks like a pitcher capable of living up to that deal.

Garza, 27, isn’t considered to be among the team’s top-ranked prospects but has tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings in Sugar Land, yielding just a hit and three walks with 11 punchouts along the way. He’s spent parts of four seasons in Triple-A, pitching to a combined 3.80 ERA with a 26.2 percent strikeout rate. He’ll join the club’s bullpen for now.

Astros Sign Lance McCullers Jr. To Five-Year Extension

By Connor Byrne | March 26, 2021 at 4:54pm CDT

MARCH 26: The extension is official, the Astros announced.

MARCH 24: Lance McCullers Jr. won’t be heading to free agency next winter after all. One month after making clear he hoped to forgo the open market and stick with the Astros, the right-hander has reportedly agreed to a five-year contract extension that will begin in 2022 and run through the 2026 season. McCullers, a client of the Boras Corporation, will reportedly be guaranteed $85MM and receive a limited no-trade clause.

Because the deal doesn’t kick in until the 2022 campaign, it does not impact the Astros’ luxury tax ledger for the current season. That’s a critical point for the ’Stros, who have worked diligently to remain south of the $210MM threshold. The contract reportedly comes with a $3.5MM signing bonus, salaries of $15.25MM in 2022-23 and a $17MM annual salary from 2024-26.

McCullers, who’s about to embark on his age-27 campaign, has been a career-long Astro to this point. The team used the 41st overall pick on him in 2012, and he has since produced quality results in the majors. Dating back to his big league debut in 2015, McCullers has pitched to a 3.70 ERA/3.61 SIERA with an above-average strikeout rate (26.4) and a tremendous 55.2 percent groundball rate across 508 2/3 innings. With the exception of 2016, when his walk rate spiked to 12.8 percent, he’s generally kept that mark better than the league average as well.

Durability has been a problem for McCullers, though, as he has never even reached the 130-inning mark in a season. He topped out at 128 1/3 frames in 2018, the year after he helped pitch the Astros to a World Series championship, before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

McCullers missed all of 2019 as a result of the procedure, but he did make a strong return last year with 11 starts and 55 innings of 3.93 ERA/3.95 SIERA pitching, solid strikeout and walk percentages (24.7 and 8.8, respectively) and a 59.7 percent grounder rate. Still, this is an unprecedented guarantee for a starting pitcher who’s never made more than 22 starts in a big league season.

While it’s risky for the Astros to make this type of commitment to a hurler who has had trouble staying healthy, they know McCullers is at least a mid-rotation-caliber starter when he does take the mound. And this move will lead to less uncertainty in Houston’s starting staff a year from now, as veterans Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander could depart in free agency next offseason. Even if those two exit, the Astros figure to return McCullers, Jake Odorizzi, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy in 2022.

Of course, next winter’s free-agent class looks a bit less interesting with McCullers off the market. But Greinke, Verlander, Trevor Bauer (if he opts out of his Dodgers deal), Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman are among many established starters who could be searching for new deals then.

It’s an obviously strong class, and the Astros can afford to be major players in the market if they choose, given that even after this new McCullers deal they’re at $91.7MM in guaranteed money on the books. For a club that’s topped $160MM in payroll in each of the past four seasons now (prior to prorating in 2020), there will be ample room to spend on the open market.

Mark Berman of FOX 26 first reported that an agreement was in place. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the terms, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale added contractual details (Twitter links).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Astros, Lance McCullers Jr. “Deep” Into Extension Talks

By Connor Byrne | March 23, 2021 at 9:19pm CDT

9:19pm: The Astros have made a “strong” offer to McCullers, and they’re “deep” in talks with him, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle writes.

5:37pm: Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr., who’s in the last year of his contract, tweeted last month that he hadn’t heard from the Astros about an extension, but that has changed. According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the Astros have made a long-term offer to the Boras Corporation client. Details of the proposal are unknown, and Heyman adds that it’s unclear whether the two sides will get a deal done.

A career-long Astro, McCullers made his major league debut with the club in 2015 and has since produced quality results. The 27-year-old owns a 3.70 ERA/3.61 SIERA with above-average strikeout and walk percentages of 26.4 and 9.3, respectively. The problem, if there is one, is that McCullers hasn’t been particularly durable in the bigs. He topped out at 128 1/3 innings in 2018 and has accrued just 508 2/3 frames during his career.

McCullers underwent Tommy John surgery before 2019, causing him to miss all of that season, but he did get through last year unscathed. He rebounded from the procedure to finish second among Astros in starts (11) and third in innings (55), recording a 3.93 ERA/3.95 SIERA and a sterling 59.7 percent groundball rate along the way.

Despite the health issues that have dogged him in the majors, McCullers should do well on his next contract. His track record and age should make him one of the most appealing starters on the open market, but the Astros may prevent him from getting there. Of course, the Astros also have a few other high-profile free agents-to-be – including righties Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander and shortstop Carlos Correa – so general manager James Click & Co. have a lot of work to do over the next several months.

Latest On Astros’ Extension Possibilities

By Steve Adams | February 25, 2021 at 9:29am CDT

Astros shortstop Carlos Correa is slated to be a member of next year’s historic class of free-agent shortstops, although the former No. 1 overall pick and American League Rookie of the Year has made clear recently that he hopes to remain in Houston beyond the 2021 season.

That’s a feeling that is mutually shared by the organization, as general manager James Click made clear in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio).

“We want to have some conversations with [Correa] to see if we can line that up so that this is not the last year with the Houston Astros,” Click told hosts Casey Stern and Brad Lidge. “But, you also don’t have to look any further than a guy like J.T. Realmuto, who went into free agency and then eventually re-signed with the original team. So we’re going to put our best foot forward there, and hopefully we can find something that’s a risk-sharing proposition that keeps him here long-term.”

Correa has stated that he doesn’t want talks to continue into the season, and Click agreed with that general mindset, stating that once Opening Day rolls around, the organization needs to be “laser-focused” on winning a World Series.

While Correa’s case may get the most attention, he’s certainly not the only Astro of note who is slated to reach the open market next year. Houston has Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers Jr. all coming off the books next winter. All three, clearly, are in rather different situations.

The 37-year-old Greinke (38 in October), has been rock-solid with the ’Stros and will look to put together yet another strong showing in a potential Hall of Fame career. Verlander isn’t likely to pitch much, if at all, after undergoing Tommy John surgery last summer and will be reaching the market on the heels of that major injury. McCullers, meanwhile, will hit free agency for the first time at a much younger age (28) than most of his peers — if, of course, he doesn’t sign an extension himself.

Some may assume that as a Boras Corporation client who is on the cusp of reaching free agency at an atypically young age, it’s a foregone conclusion that he’ll test the market. That, according to McCullers himself, isn’t necessarily the case though. Replying to a fan on Twitter who suggested McCullers would reach the market and jump to the highest bidder, the right-hander wrote:

“I actually would prefer to reach an agreement with the Astros before [free agency]. The entire organization knows I want to be there and I have not heard a word. Crazy how players are always the bad guys somehow… lots of times it is not how it seems.”

McCullers made a successful return from Tommy John surgery in 2020, pitching 55 innings of 3.93 ERA ball with solid strikeout (24.7) and walk (8.8) percentages to go along with a characteristically elite ground-ball rate (59.7 percent). He was clobbered for eight runs in his third start of the season but rebounded with a 2.18 ERA and a 45-to-13 K/BB ratio over his final 41 1/3 frames. He was then tagged for eight runs in 14 2/3 playoff innings (4.91 ERA) but encouragingly punched out 23 of the 65 batters he faced (35.4 percent) while walking only two of them (3.1 percent).

Potential contract extensions for impending free agents and perhaps young players will no doubt be on the to-do list for Click and the rest of the Houston front office in the weeks leading up to Opening Day, but the GM also suggested during that MLB Network Radio hit that it’s still possible there could be some work to do with regard to the Major League roster.

“I think tweaks are inevitable,” Click said in discussing the remainder of the offseason. “As guys tweak little injuries, that leads us to do little things here and there. We’re going to continue to be opportunistic. We do have some restrictions in terms of how much we can do at this point in the season, but the offseason is not over. We don’t view it as over until Opening Day, and even then, we stay focused on any possible way that we can continue to improve this roster.”

The Astros owe just shy of $181MM to the current roster, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, but their luxury-tax obligations sit a bit north of $201MM. That leaves under $9MM of breathing room between the current level and the $210MM luxury threshold.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently wrote that the club isn’t likely to exceed the luxury tax, although it’s not clear that there’s any sort of ownership mandate to dip below the line. It’s notable that this would mark a second consecutive season as an offender in the event that they did exceed that $210MM limit. Of course, even then they’d only be hit with a 30 percent tax on their first $20MM of overages. And with the possible departures of Verlander, Greinke, Correa, McCullers, Ryan Pressly, Joe Smith, Martin Maldonado and Brooks Raley, it’d be pretty easy to duck beneath the line in 2022. The current luxury obligations in 2022 plummet to $87MM. The financial penalty isn’t steep, but Rosenthal suggests the possibility of theoretical compensation picks for qualified free agents who sign elsewhere is a deterrent.

Click’s allusion to “restrictions” could be read as an acknowledgement of the depleted free-agent and trade markets or read as an indication that the Astros are near a budgetary limit set by ownership. And the GM also underlined that there are benefits to keeping some resources available for in-season maneuvering. Said Click:

“There’s also a lot of value to us keeping a little bit of dry powder so that when things go sideways on us — because in 162 games they will, especially in a pandemic — that we’re able to react and we don’t box ourselves into a situation where we can’t address a need that we just can’t predict right now.”

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