Lance Lynn

Cardinals Sign Lance Lynn To One-Year Deal

By Steve Adams | November 21, 2023 at 2:31pm CDT

November 21: The Cards have now made it official, announced they signed Lynn to a one-year deal with a club option for 2025.

November 20: The Cardinals and right-hander Lance Lynn are in agreement on a one-year contract with a club option for the 2025 season, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Lynn, a client of Headline Sports Group, will earn around $10MM on the contract, which is still pending the completion of a physical. Jon Heyman of the New York Post puts the guarantee at $11MM, noting that there’s a $10MM salary in 2024 and a $1MM buyout on the 2025 option. The deal also contains $3MM in potential performance incentives. The option is valued at $10MM, per the Associated Press. That value would escalate by $1MM apiece if Lynn tallies 170 and 190 innings next season.

It’s a homecoming for the 36-year-old Lynn, whom the Cardinals selected with the No. 39 overall pick in the 2008 draft. The 6’5″ righty spent the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis, solidifying himself as a quality big leaguer by throwing 977 2/3 innings of 3.38 ERA ball. Lynn reached free agency on the heels of that strong run but did so fresh off the shakiest strikeout, walk and home run rates of his career in 2016. He rejected a qualifying offer from the Cards that offseason and found a tepid market, ultimately landing with the Twins on a one-year deal that was agreed upon after spring training had commenced.

Things in Minnesota didn’t go that well, but Lynn rebounded to an extent following a trade to the Yankees and reinvigorated his career in a subsequent four-year stint between the Rangers and White Sox. From 2019-22, Lynn was one of the American League’s most durable and best starters. He pitched 571 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in that time, whiffing 26.8% of his opponents against a 6.2% walk rate. That success came under a three-year, $30MM deal originally agreed to with Texas and a two-year, $38MM extension signed with Chicago following a trade to the ChiSox.

The second season of that extension, this most recent year, marked the worst season of Lynn’s lengthy career. Lynn was baseball’s most homer-prone pitcher in 2023, surrendering an average of 2.16 long balls per nine frames (yielding 44 overall). He remained healthy and ate up plenty of innings, totaling 183 2/3 frames between the Sox and the Dodgers, but his 5.73 earned run average on the year was the second-highest of any qualified starter, leading only Kansas City’s Jordan Lyles.

Despite that career-worst showing, Lynn will still secure an eight-figure guarantee. The Cardinals, in need of at least three starting pitchers this winter, surely value Lynn’s durability and the bulk innings he can bring to the table. They’re also likely heartened by the fact that even through all of his home run woes, Lynn still posted an above-average 23.8% strikeout rate and a solid 8.3% walk rate. The veteran righty’s 12.9% swinging-strike rate remained well above the league average for a starting pitcher as well, and he also induced chases on pitches off the plate at a slightly above-average 32.4% rate. Lynn still has good spin on his four-seamer and cutter as well.

While there are plenty of positive indicators, there’s no sugarcoating the bottom-line results in 2023. It was a poor season from Lynn through and through, and he’ll need to rebound in a substantial way in order to have a meaningful impact on the Cardinals’ rotation. Given the Cardinals’ dire need for help on the starting staff, St. Louis fans were understandably hoping for a clearer upgrade with their first addition.

That said, the Cards still have at least two holes to fill on the staff. If Lynn ends up being the “third” of the three additions to the rotation this offseason, the overall outlook will be much improved. Adding a durable innings eater who can still miss bats and limit walks to round out the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation is perfectly sensible, particularly on a one-year contract with a club option. If the team’s forthcoming additions are more in this same vein, however, it’ll be fair to question the overall direction of the offseason. As with all early-offseason transactions, it’s impossible to glean full context; the overarching picture will be much clearer come spring training.

Lynn’s return to the Cardinals pushes their projected 2024 payroll to a bit more than $159MM, per Roster Resource. The Cards closed out the 2023 season with a payroll in the $178MM range, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has indicated that he does not expect payroll to rise substantially. That, however, is not an indication that the Cardinals only have about $20MM of flexibility with which to work. The Cards tendered contracts to both Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill — both of whom stand as obvious trade candidates.

O’Neill is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.5MM in 2024, while Carlson is projected to earn $1.8MM. Further, the Cardinals shed several meaningful salaries at the 2023 trade deadline but had been budgeting for a larger payroll prior to their summer sale. In all likelihood, there’s somewhere closer to $40MM with which to work — even after agreeing to terms with Lynn — and that number could further change a bit pending the outcome of various trade scenarios.

The Opener: Lynn, Yamamoto, MLBTR Chat

By Leo Morgenstern | November 21, 2023 at 8:28am CDT

As the offseason continues, here are three things for MLBTR readers to watch for today:

1. Lance Lynn to finalize deal with Cardinals:

Veteran starter Lance Lynn will take his physical today (per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch), and barring any setbacks, he will officially rejoin the Cardinals, the team that selected him in the first round of the 2008 draft. Following the least productive season of his 12-year major league tenure, it’s no surprise that Lynn wanted to return to the homer-suppressing ballpark where he saw so much success in the early days of his career. The Cardinals, meanwhile, desperately needed to bolster their starting rotation, and signing Lynn is the first step in that direction. Other names the team has been linked to include Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery (another former Cardinal), and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has officially been posted:

As of 7:00 am CT this morning, MLB clubs can begin negotiations with Yamamoto, who was posted by the Orix Buffaloes on Monday. The posting window will last 45 days, which means it will expire at 4:00 pm CT on January 4. Now that teams can begin discussions with the NPB superstar, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggests that the other top arms remaining on the market, namely Montgomery, Gray, and Blake Snell, could wait until Yamamoto signs before agreeing to deals of their own. Yamamoto is expected to sign for more guaranteed money than any other pitcher (aside from Shohei Ohtani) this winter, so it stands to reason that Montgomery, Gray, and Snell would like to wait for him to set the market. The Phillies, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Cardinals are just some of the many teams that have been linked to the star pitcher, who will not turn 26 until next August.

3. MLBTR Chat today

Two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have come off the board this week – Aaron Nola and Reynaldo López – and with Yamamoto officially on the market, it looks like the hot stove is finally starting to heat up. MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a chat with readers today at 1:00 pm CT to take questions about free agent signings, potential trades, and more. You can click here to submit a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to participate live and read a transcript once the chat is complete.

Dodgers Decline Option On Lance Lynn

By Darragh McDonald | November 3, 2023 at 1:00pm CDT

The Dodgers have declined their club option on right-hander Lance Lynn, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. They will pay him a $1MM buyout and send him to free agency instead of retaining him with an $18MM salary for 2024.

The move doesn’t come as a surprise, as Lynn just wrapped up the worst season of his career. He made 32 starts in 2023 between the White Sox and the Dodgers, switching teams in a trade prior to the deadline. His 23.6% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate were both around league average, but he was victimized by the long ball. He allowed an incredible 44 fly balls to go over the fence this past season, the most of any pitcher in the league and easily the highest tally of his career. Despite those struggles, the Dodgers’ rotation had been decimated by injuries and they sent Lynn to the mound in the playoffs. He started Game 3 of the NLDS against the Diamondbacks with two scoreless innings but allowed four home runs in the third, getting pulled before finishing that inning.

The Dodgers need starting pitching next year but it’s understandable they didn’t want to commit $17MM to Lynn just as the offseason is kicking off. After his poor results this year, he will likely have to settle for a lower salary than that. He may be able to top that number in total guarantee if he can find a multi-year deal, as even back-end veteran types can often get to eight figures on an annual basis.

Though the 2023 season was obviously rough and he turns 37 in May, Lynn will still have appeal as a bounceback candidate. He has a career ERA of 3.74 in a career that dates back to 2011. In each of the four seasons prior to 2023, he kept his ERA under 4.00. In that 2019 to 2022 stretch, he made 95 starts with a 3.42 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate.

Veteran starters can often find decent contracts for themselves, even when the expectations of their production have waned. Zack Greinke got $13MM from the Royals going into 2022 and another $8.5MM going into 2023, his age-38 and age-39 seasons. Corey Kluber got $10MM from the Red Sox prior to 2023, even with questions around his health and effectiveness. 43-year-old Rich Hill got $8MM from the Pirates for 2023. Perhaps some club thinks they can get Lynn back on track or merely have him serve as an innings-eater, but he should be able to find a decent contract regardless.

As for the Dodgers, they go into the winter with plenty of question marks in their rotation. Lynn is now heading into free agency, joining Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw. The latter has re-signed with the Dodgers many times but is slated for an uncertain road back from shoulder surgery. That leaves Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery, as well as a batch of guys with limited experience like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone and Michael Grove. There’s also Ryan Yarbrough in the mix but he’s a non-tender candidate.

The club has plenty of payroll space to work with and will likely be very active in free agency. They are expected to pursue two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, though he won’t be pitching in 2024. The other top names on the pitching market will be Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, with many others also available.

Keynan Middleton Criticizes White Sox’s Clubhouse Culture

By Anthony Franco | August 7, 2023 at 9:17pm CDT

The White Sox have been among the most disappointing teams in MLB this season. While Chicago entered the year with a top-heavy roster, they expected to compete with Minnesota and Cleveland in a lackluster AL Central. The division has been as bad as expected, but Chicago started slowly and never looked like a viable playoff team.

As a result, the Sox moved a number of veterans before last week’s deadline. One of the players shipped off — middle reliever Keynan Middleton — criticized Chicago’s clubhouse culture after being traded. The now-Yankees righty told Jesse Rogers of ESPN last night that players “came in with no rules.”

“I don’t know how you police the culture if there are no rules or guidelines to follow because everyone is doing their own thing. Like, how do you say anything about it because there are no rules,” Middleton continued. “You have rookies sleeping in the bullpen during the game. You have guys missing meetings. You have guys missing (pitcher fielding practices), and there are no consequences for any of this stuff.”

Middleton first joined the organization on a minor league deal in January. He’d bounced between the Angels, Mariners and Diamondbacks over parts of six MLB seasons before signing with Chicago. While Middleton participated in big league Spring Training, he wasn’t on the MLB roster until the Sox selected his contract in mid-April.

From a performance perspective, the 29-year-old had one of the better stretches of his career in Chicago. He worked to a 3.96 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate over 36 1/3 frames, allowing the Sox to flip him to New York for minor league righty Juan Carela even though he’s an impending free agent. However, Middleton was clearly displeased with the culture, which he said predated his arrival.

“When I got to spring training, I heard a lot of the same stuff was happening last year,” Middleton told Rogers. “It’s happening again this year, so not sure how I could change it. They don’t tell you not to miss PFPs. They don’t tell you not to miss meetings, and if it happens, it’s just, ’OK.”

He directed his criticism primarily at the team’s position players, saying that while the pitching staff “went about our work the right way … the rest of the team struggled to do the right thing.” Of course, the mention of skipped pitcher-fielding practices would only be a problem for the pitching staff.

One of Middleton’s former teammates backed up his assertions. Veteran starter Lance Lynn — who spent two and a half seasons with the Sox before being traded to the Dodgers last month — briefly addressed Middleton’s comments this afternoon (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). “I was (with the White Sox) a lot longer than Key was. He’s not wrong,” Lynn stated.

Chicago has a first-year manager in Pedro Grifol. Hired last offseason after Tony La Russa resigned because of health concerns, Grifol had no previous MLB managerial experience. Middleton’s and Lynn’s comments imply that what they perceived to be a lack of accountability began during the La Russa era and has continued under Grifol’s leadership.

General manager Rick Hahn defended Grifol this afternoon. “It does take a manager a certain amount of time to implement the culture that they want,” Hahn said (link via Bruce Levine of 670 The Score). “I know early on Pedro wanted to observe and follow what the culture was in the clubhouse before he started putting thumbprints all over it.”

However, Hahn pushed back at the extent of Middleton’s criticism, taking a swipe at the reliever in the process. “Quite frankly, it’s a little bit ironic that Keynan’s the one saying this because my last conversation with him face to face was a week ago in this clubhouse where he sought me out to apologize for his unprofessional behavior – unprofessional behavior that Pedro had called him out on and had an individual meeting with him about, and Keenan wanted to apologize for,” Hahn said (link from Tori Rubinstein of NBC Sports Chicago). “I told him at the time I figured that was a one off and not something that anyone need to get into greater detail of. And he shared that he understood there was a trade deadline coming up and that if we moved him, he would be very interested in returning to us as a free agent.”

Hahn conceded the club has unspecified “cultural issues” and admitted “we need to improve the leadership in that room.” However, he denied the assertion that any player fell asleep in the bullpen mid-game or that players were free to skip meetings. “One thing we’re not going to do is stand idly by while false reports are put out there about the character of the men that remain in that room,” Hahn said.

The White Sox host Middleton’s new club for a three-game set this week. They entered tonight’s game with a 45-68 record, the third-worst mark in the American League.

Marlins Had Interest In Turner, Lynn, Cron Prior To Trade Deadline

By Mark Polishuk | August 5, 2023 at 11:46am CDT

The Marlins were one of the league’s busier teams in advance of the trade deadline, as Miami made several moves to bolster its lineup and bullpen for the wild card race. Such names as Josh Bell, David Robertson, Jake Burger, Jorge Lopez, and Ryan Weathers joined the organization, but there were plenty of interesting players on Miami’s radar, including a few who weren’t previously mentioned in pre-deadline buzz. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Levi Weaver report that the Marlins had “extensive discussions” with the Red Sox about Justin Turner, while Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report that the Marlins were also interested in Lance Lynn and C.J. Cron.

Reports surfaced on July 28 that the Sox weren’t moving Turner, which is probably when (as Rosenthal and Weaver write) the Marlins turned their attention to other position players. Miami’s talks with the White Sox about Lynn also developed into the eventual Burger trade, as the Fish landed Burger for left-hander Jake Eder in a one-for-one swap. Burger was also something of a fallback once the Marlins balked at the Nationals’ asking price for Jeimer Candelario, and Miami was more comfortable trading a controllable pitcher like Eder for another younger player with multiple years of control, whereas Candelario is a free agent after the season.

Lynn and Cron were seen as likely trade candidates since the White Sox and Rockies are both out of contention, and indeed both players were moved in pre-deadline deals. (Chicago sent Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers as part of a five-player trade, while the Rockies dealt Cron and Randal Grichuk to the Angels for two pitching prospects.) There would certainly have been more eyebrows raised over a Turner deal given that the Red Sox are fighting for a wild card berth in the American League, yet even such a trade wouldn’t have been a total shock considering how Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom both moved and acquired veterans at the 2022 deadline when Boston was also on the periphery of the playoff chase.

This year’s deadline season was comparatively quieter at Fenway Park, as the Sox only acquired Luis Urias from the Brewers and sent Enrique Hernandez to the Dodgers. The Red Sox were known to be looking for controllable pitching, and Rosenthal/Weaver theorize that the Marlins’ deep crop of arms might have gotten Bloom to at least consider the idea of moving Turner.

Speculatively, it is also worth wondering if Edward Cabrera might have been part of the Marlins/Red Sox talks. Jackson and Mish write that several teams called about Cabrera, to the point that the Marlins had Devin Smeltzer on hand in case Cabrera was moved prior to his scheduled start on Monday. Cabrera only lasted three innings in that start, and he was optioned to Triple-A on Wednesday and Smeltzer’s contract was officially selected from Triple-A a day later.

As much as the Red Sox needed pitching, it is safe to guess that trading Turner for almost anyone wouldn’t have gone over well with Boston fans, or even within the clubhouse. Turner has hit .286/.356/.481 with 17 homers over 441 plate appearances, with his offense steadily increasing over the course of the season. Though Turner will be 39 in November, he is still playing well enough that it’s possible he could opt out of the final season of his two-year contract with the Sox and again enter free agency this winter, looking to land a more lucrative multi-year commitment. If that scenario occurs, one would imagine the Marlins would come calling, considering their interest in Turner dates back at last winter.

Dodgers Acquire Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly From White Sox

By Darragh McDonald | July 28, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The White Sox have already traded Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López to the Angels and are now sending out even more pitching. They are sending righties Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers, the teams announced. Lynn had a 10-team no-trade clause, with the Dodgers on it, but waived it. The White Sox will receive pitching prospects Nick Nastrini and Jordan Leasure, as well as outfielder Trayce Thompson.

Lynn, 36, has been an effective major league starter for over a decade now, debuting back in 2011. It has been a strange season for him here in 2023, however. Through 21 starts, many of his peripherals are in line with his career marks or even better. He’s striking out 26.9% of opponents on the year, a few ticks north of his 24% career rate. His 8.4% walk rate is only slightly worse than his career 8.2% clip, while this year’s 38.1% ground ball rate is just a bit off his 42.9% career rate.

But despite all of that, he has a 6.47 earned run average, almost three full runs above his 3.71 career mark. This seems to be due to a few factors. For one thing, he’s allowed a .328 batting average on balls in play that’s well beyond the .300 mark he’s allowed in his career and the .295 league average in the majors this year. His 61.6% strand rate this year is well below his career mark of 74.6% and the 71.8% league average this year. Perhaps most importantly, he’s already allowed 28 home runs, more than any other season of his career even though there’s still a couple of months left.

20.6% of the fly balls Lynn has allowed have gone over the fence. That’s a mark that is very unlikely to be maintained going forward. Last year, the qualified pitcher with the highest rate in that department was Germán Márquez of the Rockies, who pitches half his games at Coors Field, at 16.9%. Lynn’s rate of 20.6% this year is the highest in the majors among qualified hurlers, with more than two percentage points separating him from Shohei Ohtani’s 18.4% rate, the second-highest in that department.

Lynn’s hard hit rate is listed at 40.7% this year at Statcast, a slight bump from last year’s 38.7% rate, but it still seems fair to expect some regression towards the mean here. ERA estimators all like him better than his actual ERA, with Lynn having a 5.22 FIP, 4.82 xERA and 3.92 SIERA this year. It seems the Dodgers are banking on the fact that Lynn has actually been closer to his previous career form than a quick glance at his surface-level stats would indicate.

There are some similarities in the case of Kelly, who previously pitched for the Dodgers from 2019 to 2021. In 31 appearances this year, he’s striking out 32% of opponents while walking 9.4% and getting grounders at a 56.2% clip. All three of those figures are better than league average for a reliever, yet he has a 4.97 ERA. It’s possible that his .329 BABIP and 58.7% strand rate are pushing more runs across the board, as he has a 3.25 FIP, 3.23 xERA and 2.97 SIERA.

It seems that plenty of clubs were willing to look past the ERAs of these two pitchers, banking on their previous track records and under-the-hood numbers. In recent days, Lynn has received interest from the Rangers, Rays and Dodgers, while Kelly also received interest from the Rangers and Dodgers.

The White Sox are having a dismal season, currently sporting a record of 41-63 despite coming into the year with competitive aspirations. It was reported a few weeks back that they were willing to consider trade offers on anyone except for controllable core pieces Dylan Cease, Luis Robert Jr. Eloy Jiménez and Andrew Vaughn. Rental pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López were flipped to the Angels earlier this week.

Lynn and Kelly were both also logical trade pieces since they are each in the final seasons of their respective contracts, though both also have 2024 options. Lynn is making $18.5MM this year, with about $6.48MM left to be paid out. His deal also contains an $18MM club option for 2024 with a $1MM buyout. Kelly is making $9MM this year, with about $3.15MM left to be paid, then has a $9.5MM club option with $1MM buyout.

The Dodgers have plenty of need for pitching, having suffered through a litany of injuries this year. Starters Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Dustin May and Ryan Pepiot are on the injured list, with Noah Syndergaard having been there as well until he got traded to the Guardians. That’s forced the club to turn to rookies like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove, alongside Julio Urías and Tony Gonsolin. Whenever Lynn reports to the Dodgers, he’ll likely bump one of those rookies back down to Triple-A. Further pitching additions could do the same, as could the return of Kershaw later in the season.

The Dodgers also have relievers Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen, Alex Reyes, Shelby Miller, J.P. Feyereisen, Tyler Cyr and Jimmy Nelson all on the 60-day IL. Adding an experienced veteran like Kelly will increase the depth for the stretch run. Each of Lynn and Kelly could also be retained for next year if the Dodgers so wish, which will likely depend on how they perform over the next few months.

Turning to the players going to Chicago, the headliner is Nastrini. A fourth-round pick of the Dodgers from 2021, he’s already climbed to Double-A. The 23-year-old has made 17 starts at that level this year with a 4.03 ERA, striking out 26.1% of opponents but with an 11.3% walk rate. Baseball America recently ranked him the #10 prospect in the Dodgers’ system while FanGraphs currently has him at #6.

Leasure, 24, was a 14th-round pick in 2021 and has been working exclusively in relief as a professional. He’s pitched 35 innings out of the bullpen in Double-A this year with a 3.09 ERA, striking out 39.7% of opponents but walking 11.3%.

Thompson, 32, is an immediate big league option for the Sox, or he will be once he returns from the injured list. He was drafted by the White Sox back in 2009 and made his major league debut for them in 2015. He quickly went into journeyman status, bouncing to the Dodgers, back to the White Sox, the Athletics, the Cubs, Padres and back to the Dodgers again, generally struggling in most of those opportunities.

He seemed to finally have his long-awaited breakout last year, with the Dodgers calling him up midseason and putting him into 80 games. He hit .256/.353/.507 in those for a wRC+ of 142 while providing above-average outfield defense, slotting into all three slots on the grass. Unfortunately, he struggled to keep it going into this year, hitting .155/.310/.366 before landing on the IL in early June due to a left oblique strain.

Thompson began a rehab assignment a week ago so should be able to join the White Sox in the near future. He’s making $1.45M this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons after this one. The Sox have a regular outfield mix of Robert, Andrew Benintendi and Oscar Colas, with Jimenez serving as the designated hitter most of the time. Thompson could potentially spell anyone in that group while serving as a reserve outfielder alongside Gavin Sheets.

Despite plenty of injuries, the Dodgers are 58-43 and have a three-game lead in the National League West. They’ve already brought in some complementary pieces like Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernandez, now bolstering their pitching staff with a couple of new additions. The Sox have continued adding young talent as they look to salvage some future value from a disappointing season. With four days until the deadline, both clubs likely still have more moves to make.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today was the first to report that the two sides were deep in talks, with the Dodgers optimistic about getting both Lynn and Kelly. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported an agreement was close. Joel Sherman of The New York Post relayed that Lynn was willing to waive his no-trade clause. Nightengale first had the Lynn part of the deal being done. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the Dodgers finalizing the deal for both pitchers. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the full trade.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rangers Pursuing Jordan Hicks

By Steve Adams | July 28, 2023 at 10:55am CDT

The Cardinals have been hopeful of working out an extension with closer Jordan Hicks, but as of yesterday, talks had failed to progress. There’s no indication yet that the Cardinals feel an extension decidedly will not be reached, but while the situation remains unresolved, the Rangers have been angling to hammer out a trade bringing Hicks to Texas, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi recently reported that the Rangers have been exploring trades that could simultaneously address both their rotation and bullpen needs; speculatively speaking, the Cardinals could be a match in such a deal, with both Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty expected to be traded between now and Tuesday’s deadline. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News offered a similar report this morning, noting that Texas could look to do the bulk of its shopping in one trade. Grant echoes prior reports that Texas has talked to the White Sox about Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly, and he further adds that the Rangers have some degree of interest in Sox relievers Keynan Middleton, Kendall Graveman and Aaron Bummer.

Hicks would be the second power arm added to the Texas bullpen in the past month. The Rangers jumped the relief market and kicked off the summer trade season by acquiring Aroldis Chapman from the Royals in late June, and it’s been well documented that they’re still looking for bullpen reinforcements.

Hicks, a free agent at season’s end despite still being just 26 years old, would fill that need in spades. He’s shaken off a rocky start to the season and been one of the most dominant bullpen arms in the sport dating back to early May. In his past 28 2/3 frames, the flamethrowing righty has pitched to a 1.88 ERA with a 31.4% strikeout rate, an 8.5% walk rate and a mammoth 66.7% ground-ball rate — all while averaging a blistering 100.6 mph on his sinker. He’s doing so while playing on a modest $1.8375MM salary agreed upon over the winter to avoid arbitration in his final season of eligibility.

Overall, Hicks currently sports a 3.67 ERA in 41 2/3 innings, though fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.02) and SIERA (3.40) are a bit more bullish. Command has long been an issue for Hicks, but after walking nearly 20% of his opponents through May 7, he’s since sporting that previously mentioned 8.5% rate — roughly in line with the league average.

Durability has been the other primary knock on Hicks. Since debuting as a 21-year-old back in 2018, he’s pitched just 219 1/3 big league innings. A 2019 UCL tear ended that season in June and sidelined him for the entire 2020 campaign, and Hicks has also spent time on the injured list due to inflammation in that surgically repaired elbow, a flexor strain in his right arm, and neck spasms. The 77 2/3 innings he pitched as a rookie still represent a career-high, and the 40 appearances he’s made this season already mark the second-highest total of his career, next to that rookie campaign.

Hicks has avoided the injured list this season and generally been able to take the ball whenever the Cards have needed, however. He’s frequently worked back-to-back days and pitched on three consecutive days as recently as mid-June. He’s seen a modest dip in his velocity of late, “only” averaging 99.6 mph on his sinker over his past six appearances, though that includes a 100.4 mph average in his most recent appearance.

As for the White Sox group, any would add a talented arm to the back of the Texas ’pen. I took a look at Middleton’s quiet resurgence earlier this month, although he’s been scuffling of late — with a dozen runs allowed in his past 14 innings. He’s still carrying a 3.82 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate this year while averaging nearly 96 mph on his heater (and playing on a low-cost deal). Graveman, signed through 2024 on a deal that pays him $8MM annually, has a 3.48 ERA with a roughly average 22.6% strikeout rate and an elevated 10.6% walk rate. His typically excellent ground-ball rate has wilted to a below-average 39.4% in 2023. Bummer has struggled to an ERA north of 6.00 but still has excellent strikeout and grounder rates on the year, with a lofty BABIP and unusually low strand rate contributing to his struggles (as I explored in a bit more detail yesterday).

White Sox Rumors: Cease, Bummer, Lynn, Kelly

By Steve Adams | July 27, 2023 at 9:52am CDT

The White Sox’ long-expected status as deadline sellers was cemented last night when they traded impending free agents Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to the Angels in exchange for prospects Edgar Quero and Ky Bush. Further deals for the South Siders between now and Tuesday’s deadline are a certainty, but a broad-reaching teardown still appears unlikely. Teams who have inquired on the availability of righty Dylan Cease, who’s controllable through the 2025 season, have repeatedly been turned away, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

Cease, last year’s Cy Young runner-up, has been one of the most speculated-upon trade candidates in baseball this season, even as it’s continued to seem unlikely he’s moved. The White Sox are intent on reloading and taking another run at contending in 2024, making it far less likely that they’d deal a controllable top-of-the-rotation arm of Cease’s caliber.

The 27-year-old Cease hasn’t pitched as well in 2023 as he did in 2022. He’s sporting a solid 4.04 ERA with an excellent 28% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate through 113 2/3 frames so far this season. He’s been particularly effective over his past nine starts, however, firing 51 innings of 3.00 ERA ball while punching out one-third of his opponents and recording an improved 8.5% walk rate. Cease is earning an affordable $5.7MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility and will be due a raise on that salary next season.

Cease isn’t the only controllable arm drawing interest on Chicago’s roster. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that several contenders have expressed interest in lefty reliever Aaron Bummer despite a disastrous 6.56 ERA. Bummer’s season got out to an awful start, but he’s logged a 4.50 ERA in 24 innings dating back to May 12; five of the dozen earned runs he’s yielded in that time came in one meltdown on July 6.

Looking deeper into Bummer’s season, he’s fanned an impressive 28.3% of his opponents and kept the ball on the ground at a hefty 54.3% clip. The 29-year-old has been plagued by a .347 average on balls in play and an abnormally low 48.1% strand rate this year, both of which figure to trend back toward his career averages of .300 and 69.5%. Bummer hasn’t allowed a home run yet this season, which isn’t sustainable, but the overall package of a hard-throwing lefty who misses bats and piles up grounders while pitching on an affordable contract understandably has appeal for contending clubs. Bummer is playing out the fourth season of a five-year, $16MM contract but can be controlled another three seasons: a $5.5MM salary in 2024 plus a pair of club options valued at $7.25MM and $7.5MM in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

As with Cease, Bummer can be a part of the White Sox’ efforts to contend both in 2024 and 2025, so there’s no guarantee he’s moved. However, reliever performance is more volatile, evidenced by Bummer’s current ERA after logging a 2.59 mark in 160 innings from 2019-22. If the Sox can get some near-MLB help that could more affordably contribute to the 2024 roster, it’s feasible they’d be open to the possibility.

At some point in the next few days, the Sox will quite likely move right-handers Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly and Keynan Middleton, all of whom can become free agent at season’s end (though Lynn and Kelly have 2024 options on their contracts). The Rays and Dodgers were both reported to be in talks on Lynn yesterday, and the Dodgers were tied to Kelly.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds further fuel to those rumors, writing this morning that the Rangers and White Sox discussed a trade that would bring both Lynn and Kelly to Texas yesterday. The talks didn’t gain enough traction to bring about a deal, but Texas’ interest in both pitchers highlights the number of balls the Sox have in the air and the number of paths they could take as they look to retool in the coming days.

White Sox Discussing Lance Lynn With Rays, Dodgers

By Steve Adams | July 26, 2023 at 11:53am CDT

11:53am: The Sox and Rays are indeed discussing Lynn, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets, but a deal between the two parties is not yet seen as imminent. The Rays have interest in a number of starters and are in active talks on multiple starting pitchers.

Likewise, the White Sox aren’t locked in on the Rays alone as a potential trade partner for Lynn. Nightengale follows up by tweeting that the Dodgers remain interested in both Lynn and right-hander Lucas Giolito and continue to discuss both with the ChiSox.

With Dustin May out for the season and each of Clayton Kershaw, Ryan Pepiot, Noah Syndergaard and Walker Buehler on the injured list, the Dodgers have a trio of rookies (Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove) behind Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin in the rotation at the moment. All of the Dodgers’ Opening Day rotation members have been on the injured list at some point this season, so it’s only natural for them to explore upgrades — particularly as their collection of young starters continues to push their workloads to previously unreached levels.

9:49am: The White Sox and Rays are in active discussions on a trade regarding right-hander Lance Lynn, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The two teams have been exchanging names of potential minor leaguers in the swap.

Tampa Bay is one of the 10 teams on Lynn’s no-trade list, but talks have apparently advanced to the point where the White Sox have already approached him about the possibility of approving the deal. Nightengale adds that Lynn has informed the team he would waive that no-trade protection for a chance to pitch for a contending Rays club.

Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM extension he signed with the White Sox two years ago. The veteran right-hander was a durable an excellent pitcher for the Rangers and ChiSox from 2019-22, pitching to a combined 3.42 ERA with plus strikeout and walk rates in 571 innings during that time, but the 2023 season has been a struggle.

While Lynn is still missing bats at a high level (27.3% strikeout rate, 14% swinging-strike rate), he’s been more homer-prone this season that any point in his lengthy Major League career. The 6’5″ righty has yielded an average of 2.19 homers per nine innings pitched, which has contributed to what would be a career-worst 6.18 ERA on the season.

That mark is unsightly, of course, but Lynn has seen what’s surely an anomalous 21.5% of his fly-balls turn into home runs. That’s more than double his 10.1% career mark and nearly nine percentage points higher than the league average of 12.4%. Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize over larger samples, and any team acquiring Lynn would surely be hoping there’s regression in that regard. That seems inevitable; Lynn’s current 21.5% homer-to-flyball rate would be the fourth-highest mark of any pitcher in the past decade. Furthermore, one can imagine that getting out of the homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field would help to alleviate those home run woes.

The Rays didn’t look like a team that’d need to acquire outside help for the rotation early in the year. Tampa Bay began the season in dominant fashion, but the Rays have seen Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgery) go down with season-ending injuries. Depth starter Josh Fleming is on the 60-day IL due to an elbow issue.

At present, the Rays are running out a strong quartet of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. Lynn would slot into that group and give the Rays an upside play for the final spot in the rotation. At worst, he’d be a durable innings eater who could spare the bullpen and round out the rotation. At best, he could become the Rays’ latest pitching reclamation. Tampa Bay has a reputation for getting the best out of its pitchers — thanks to a combination of its renowned analytics department, advance scouting, coaching and player development — and if the Rays can get Lynn back into his 2019-22 form, he’d be a bona fide playoff-caliber starter.

Lynn’s contract contains an $18MM option for the 2024 season. There’s a $1MM buyout on that provision, making it a net $17MM decision. As it stands, he’s clearly trending toward a buyout, but with a big finish to the season it’s conceivable he could yet play his way into having that option picked up.

That’d be a steep price for the Rays of all teams, but Tampa Bay has shown increased willingness to spend in recent years. The Rays made a legitimate run at signing Freddie Freeman in free agency, reportedly putting forth a six-year offer in the $150MM range. They also extended Glasnow on a deal that’ll pay him $25MM next year and signed shortstop Wander Franco to an 11-year, $182MM deal. Even this past offseason’s signing of Eflin at three years and $40MM was a notable departure from the team’s typical stinginess on the open market.

Lynn is owed about $6.8MM of this year’s $18.5MM salary between now and the end of the season, plus at least that $1MM buyout on the option. Between that salary and his struggles with home runs, his trade value certainly isn’t close to where it might’ve been entering the season, but the Sox could sweeten their return by offering to pay down some or all of the remaining money he’s guaranteed in 2023.

AL Central Notes: Lynn, Guardians, Twins, Turnbull

By Mark Polishuk | July 24, 2023 at 7:45pm CDT

The two-year, $38MM extension that Lance Lynn signed with the White Sox in July 2021 also contained some partial no-trade protection, allowing Lynn to block deals to 10 teams per year. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the 10 clubs on Lynn’s no-trade list are the Padres, Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals, Mets, Angels, Mariners, Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays. Several of those teams are known be looking for pitching as the deadline approaches, though of Lynn’s 10 listed clubs, only Tampa Bay has been linked to the veteran right-hander to date.

This no-trade clause might not be much of an obstacle, as Rosenthal figures that Lynn would welcome the chance to join a contender. There is also an $18MM club option on Lynn’s services that figures to be bought out (for $1MM) by the Sox or a new team, considering that Lynn has struggled to a 6.18 ERA over 115 innings this season. Though home runs have been Lynn’s biggest issue, Rosenthal argues that joining a better defensive team would help Lynn’s fortunes, and some of his advanced metrics (like a 3.88 SIERA and a 27.3% strikeout rate) suggest that his ERA isn’t reflective of how well he has pitched in 2023.

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