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Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 6 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Six different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter.  Assuming the nine players turn down the one-year, $17.4MM offer, here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.

[Related: Offseason Primer: The New Qualifying Offer Rules]

Cubs

The Cubs made qualifying offers to right-handers Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis.  The Cubs were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, regardless of the size of the contracts Arrieta and Davis sign, the Cubs will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.

Cardinals

The Cardinals made a qualifying offer to starter Lance Lynn.  Like the Cubs, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor.  Regardless of the amount Lynn signs for, the Cardinals will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.

Royals

The Royals made qualifying offers to center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas.  The Royals were a revenue sharing recipient.  If any of their three free agents sign for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the Royals get draft pick compensation after the first round.  For any of the three that signs for less than $50MM, the Royals get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B.  MLBTR projects all three players to sign for well over $50MM, so the Royals should have a very favorable draft pool in 2018, potentially adding three picks in the top 35 or so if all three sign elsewhere.

Rays

The Rays made a qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rockies, and Indians.  However, Cobb is a borderline free agent when it comes to a $50MM contract, in our estimation.  The team will be rooting for him to reach that threshold, as the Rays would then net a compensatory pick after the first round.  If Cobb falls shy of that total guarantee, the Rays will receive an extra pick after Comp Round B.

Rockies

The Rockies made a qualifying offer to closer Greg Holland.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Indians.  Holland, too, is a borderline $50MM free agent, though he certainly figures to aim higher than that in the early stages of free agency.  If he reaches $50MM+, the Rox will get a pick after the first round.  If not, they’ll receive a pick after Comp Round B.

Indians

The Indians made a qualifying offer to first baseman Carlos Santana.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Rockies.  Santana is another borderline $50MM free agent in our estimation, but it’s certainly possible he clears that threshold and nets Cleveland a pick after the first round.

So, the Cubs and Cardinals already know where their draft-pick compensation will land if their qualified free agents sign elsewhere: after Competitive Balance Round B, which currently starts with pick No. 76.  The Royals, Rays, Rockies, and Indians will all be rooting for their free agents to sign for at least $50MM, granting them compensation after the first round, which begins with pick No. 31.

9 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today marked the deadline for players to receive one-year qualifying offers at this year’s rate of $17.4MM. Now that the dust has settled, we know that nine players will weigh those decisions for the next ten days.

That falls on the lower end of the spectrum, matching the prior low from 2012 (the first season that the QO system was in operation). On the high side, twenty players received qualifying offers in 2015. But that was also the first year in which any players accepted the one-year offer, which may itself have had an impact on future teams deciding whether to issue it. Last year, after all, there were only ten recipients. At the end of the day, of course, the actual players and teams involved matter most, and that can vary quite a bit from year to year based on a wide variety of factors.

New rules went into effect this winter, so you’ll want to review those to understand how it’ll work this time around. Those rules likely will continue to dampen the use of the QO on the margins, both through the reduction of draft compensation for issuing teams and by the prohibition on multiple QOs for the same player. Of course, it’s worth bearing in mind that every free agent class is different — and that every team situation is as well.

Here are this year’s free agents who were extended a qualifying offer by their teams (in alphabetical order):

Several players that were discussed as QO candidates ended up being bypassed — which, generally, is a good thing for their earning power in free agency. Zack Cozart of the Reds (post), Andrew Cashner of the Rangers (post), and Logan Morrison of the Rays (post) were among the closest calls that went against the offer.

Cardinals To Issue Qualifying Offer To Lance Lynn

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The Cardinals will issue a qualifying offer to righty Lance Lynn, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports on Twitter. He’ll have ten days to weigh the $17.4MM offer.

Expectations long have been that Lynn would receive a QO from the Cards — and that he’d ultimately reject it. We’ll have to wait a while to learn his decision, but given his apparent expectations in free agency it seems all but a foregone conclusion that he’ll choose to hit the open market.

Lynn’s decision is eased by the new rules governing the qualifying offer. Teams weighing a signing won’t need to worry about punting a first-round pick, as would have been the case in prior years. The hope and expectation is that the rule change will tamp down on the market difficulties faced by some non-star veterans in the past.

As we discussed in our ranking of the top fifty free agents, Lynn figures to land one of the ten largest contracts of the winter. But our prediction (four years and $56MM) probably seems light if you focus on the positives — namely, a shiny 3.38 career ERA over 977 2/3 innings. That reflects some concerns about the sustainability of that output as Lynn enters his thirties.

NL Notes: Baker, Kelley, Lynn, Bell

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The Nationals sparked some backlash today with the surprising decision not to retain manager Dusty Baker. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was particularly incensed, slamming the organization not only for the substance of the move, but also for leaving Baker dangling in the wind for the past week-and-a-half. Baker tells Nightengale that he’s “surprised and disappointed” after leading the team to two-straight NL East titles but also failing to advance past the NLDS. It’s worth keeping some perspective here: after all, Baker is a highly-compensated professional and this is a results-oriented business. But the move does seem somewhat confusing from the outside and certainly fits the ever-growing record of questionable interactions between ownership and managers in D.C. Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post also examined the risk the club is taking with the switch.

More from the National League:

  • Nationals reliever Shawn Kelley has received a stem-cell injection in his troublesome right elbow, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets. The hope is that the treatment, combined with a full offseason of rest, will allow Kelley to return at full health next year. He is not expected to require any surgery at this time. Kelley, who is slated to earn another $5.5MM in the final season of his contract, somehow allowed a dozen home runs in just 26 innings in 2017 while also maintaining a 13.5% swinging-strike rate. Given his history of quality relief work, perhaps there’s still hope that he can contribute once again in 2018.
  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tackled a host of interesting Cardinals questions in his latest chat, some highlights of which are available here. Of particular note, he says it’s no secret that righty Lance Lynn is going to seek a big contract — something on the order of Jordan Zimmermann’s $110MM guarantee — in free agency. While St. Louis has interest in retaining Lynn, there doesn’t seem to be much chance of it entering that stratosphere to do so. (Whether any other teams will do so seems questionable, too.)
  • Meanwhile, the Cardinals have lost bench coach David Bell to the Giants, where he’ll serve as the VP of player development. That could kick off some other changes for these two organizations, both of which are looking to bounce back from postseason misses in 2017 (and a much more serious collapse in the case of San Francisco). Bell had worked in the St. Louis dugout since 2014. The twelve-year MLB veteran spent time with both organizations during his playing career.

Cardinals Notes: Offseason, Closers, Hitting, Fowler, Lynn

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Some items from the Cardinals’ season-end press conference, as per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (link one, link two)…

  • The Cards will be looking for a middle-of-the-lineup slugger this winter to boost the lineup.  “For us, we have a talented team, but when you look at our club, no one stood out as an All-Star, that threat,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said.  Seven Cards regulars were above-average run-creators in 2017 as per the wRC+ metric, though injuries and a lack of regular playing time impacted that group.  Josh Donaldson has been rumored to be one of the Cardinals’ offseason targets, and would certainly fit the bill as a big lineup upgrade if St. Louis is able to pry him away from the Blue Jays.
  • With Trevor Rosenthal sidelined by Tommy John surgery, the Cards will look into adding ninth-inning help, even if they’re wary of shopping at the high end of the free agent closer market. “Ideally, you don’t pay retail for closers if you can avoid it, and we’ve been lucky for the last long period of not having to dip into that end of the market.  But we don’t have an heir apparent at the moment, so we will have to evaluate what our options are,” GM Michael Girsch said.
  • Flexibility seems to be the key word for this Cardinals’ offseason, as with so many multi-positional players on the roster, the club has several options in deciding who could potentially stay or go.  (And who could be added, in regards to acquiring that big bat.)  Mozeliak said that catcher Yadier Molina is the only position player who has his spot on the field firmly established for 2018.  This means that Dexter Fowler could potentially move out of center field, which Mozeliak said will likely be discussed in the coming weeks.  2016 was the only season of Fowler’s career that saw him post positive numbers in the Defensive Runs Saved and UZR/150 categories, as he struggled to minus-18 DRS and -9.9 UZR/150 last year over 933 1/3 IP in center field.
  • The Cardinals have yet to decide whether or not to issue a qualifying offer to free agent starter Lance Lynn.  If Lynn rejected the QO, the Cards would be in line for compensation (an extra draft pick just prior to the third round) if he signed elsewhere.  If he accepted, then he’d return to St. Louis on a one-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $18.1MM.  After missing all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, Lynn returned to post very solid numbers this season and pitched 186 1/3 innings, which could quiet concerns about his post-surgery durability.  Even with such a major recent injury on his record, Lynn is likely to find a good multi-year deal on the open market, so one would think he’d reject a QO.

Quick Hits: Lackey, Lynn, Nicasio, Hundley

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The Cubs’ clubhouse celebration after clinching the NL Central included some telling comments from Jon Lester, who proclaimed that John Lackey had made “probably his last regular-season start.  Here’s to one hell of a career!” before toasting his longtime teammate.  (USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has the details.)  This is the first open acknowledgement that Lackey is heading towards retirement after the season.  Lackey’s two-year, $32MM contract is up once the Cubs conclude their postseason run, and he turns 39 in October.  He struggled to a 4.56 ERA over 169 2/3 innings thanks in large part to problems with the long ball, as Lackey surrendered a league-high 36 homers and a career-high 18.3% home run rate.  Still, Lackey has enjoyed a tremendous 15 seasons in the big leagues and, coming out of the Cubs bullpen in the playoffs, he’ll look to collect his fourth World Series ring.

Here’s more from around baseball as we head into the final weekend of the regular season…

  • The Cardinals don’t expect extensions with any of their upcoming free agents before the season is over, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.  This includes Lance Lynn, whose representatives haven’t had any in-depth talks with the club about a new deal.  When asked if Thursday’s start could be his last with the Cardinals, Lynn said it “certainly looks that way.”  Lynn looks to be one of the top pitchers available in this year’s free agent market, and it appears he’ll be departing a Cards rotation that will mostly be relying on promising younger arms in 2018.
  • Also from Goold’s article, he reports that the Cardinals have been in touch with Juan Nicasio about a new deal.  Nicasio came to St. Louis after a rather surprising series of transactions that saw the right-hander waived by the Pirates, claimed by the Phillies and then dealt to the Cards all within a week’s time at the end of August and in early September.  No matter the uniform, Nicasio pitched well, posting a 2.65 ERA, 3.55 K/BB rate and 71 strikeouts over 71 1/3 innings for his three teams, making a league-high 75 appearances.  The Cardinals have clearly liked what they’ve seen in their short time with Nicasio on the roster and may be trying to lock Nicasio up before he hits the open market.
  • There is mutual interest between the Giants and Nick Hundley in a new contract, though Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle observes that it might hinge on how much playing time Hundley is able to find elsewhere from a catching-needy team.  Obviously, anything more than a backup role isn’t an option in San Francisco with Buster Posey locked in as the regular catcher.  Hundley hit .246/.276/.425 over 296 PA with the Giants while becoming a big voice in the team’s clubhouse.

Cardinals Notes: Leake Trade, Lynn, Outfield, Weaver

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The Cardinals’ trade of right-hander Mike Leake didn’t go over well with his now-former teammates, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “I said, ’Is this a joke?’ … It was shocking to all of us,” outfielder Tommy Pham tells Hummel, describing the moment he learned of the news. Right-hander Lance Lynn’s comments suggested a bit of frustration as well: “If you look at everything that’s happened so far, there’s been no acquisitions (by the Cardinals).”

Lynn also further addressed the lack of extension talks between the Cardinals and his agents. “I’m sure whenever the time comes — when the World Series is over and five days after, I’m sure somebody will talk to me,” said Lynn. “…They’ve had a whole season. Five days isn’t going to matter. But I just work here.” Cards fans will definitely want to check out the full column for more player quotes as well as notes on Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha.

A bit more out of St. Louis…

  • The Cardinals have collected an abundance of outfield talent in the minors and could potentially trade from that depth this winter, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “We’re not going to have enough room at the inn,” said president of baseball operations John Mozeliak of his organization’s outfield depth. “That is something we, as an organization, are going to have to take a very hard look at this offseason and decide what makes the most sense.” St. Louis was reportedly open to considering trades involving Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. Their minor league ranks include Magneuris Sierra, Harrison Bader, recently acquired Tyler O’Neill, international signee/former Cuban pro Randy Arozarena as well as the much-improved Oscar Mercado, whose stock has risen considerably in 2017, Goold notes as part of his in-depth look at the team’s outfield stockpile. St. Louis is known to be seeking an impact bat for the middle of the lineup and, more speculatively speaking, could also pursue rotation help (especially if Lynn departs) and bullpen arms.
  • Right-hander Luke Weaver has impressed the Cardinals this month and looks more and more like a long-term asset in St. Louis, writes MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. While he was initially stepping into the spot of the injured Wainwright, the trade of Leake now creates a potential long-term opening for Weaver, who has turned in 29 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 50.7 percent ground-ball rate. Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun sang Weaver’s praises when speaking with Langosch after facing him in two separate games this month. And, asked if Weaver will hold a rotation spot through season’s end, Cards skipper Mike Matheny replied, “There’s no reason he shouldn’t be here.”

NL Notes: Leake, Lynn, Harper, Upton, Humphreys

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In the wake of today’s Mike Leake trade, some have wondered whether the Cardinals might be more inclined to bring back fellow right-hander Lance Lynn, who’s set to reach free agency this fall. But Lynn himself suggested that, at a minimum, that’s hardly an inevitability. As Chris Lee of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, the veteran hurler says there has “been zero communication” between his camp and the Cards’ front office about a new contract. You’ll want to read all of his comments for yourself, but it certainly did not sound as if the 30-year-old is entirely sanguine about the chances of a reunion.

  • It’s worth noting, too, that Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has emphasized a desire to rely on the team’s younger arms in explaining the Leake swap, as Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com tweets. That would seem to suggest that Luke Weaver and others factor prominently in the club’s plans for 2018 (and, of course, beyond). Mozeliak covered a few of the up-and-coming hurlers in his comments today, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch covers in his story on the trade.
  • Nationals star Bryce Harper does not seem to be making much headway in his effort to return from his recent knee injury, as Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports (Twitter links). Harper says he suffered not only a bone bruise but also a strained calf, while indicating some concern with the fact that there’s not much time left in the regular season. Skipper Dusty Baker acknowledged that Harper is still “a long way of running,” adding that the club will give Jayson Werth some time in right field in case Harper isn’t ready for the postseason.
  • The Giants have at least some level of interest in Tigers outfielder Justin Upton, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (links to Twitter). Trouble is, San Francisco (quite understandably) would only want to deal for Upton if it can be assured that he won’t exercise his opt-out clause and head out onto the open market this fall. Upton will be deciding between another foray into free agency and the $88.5MM over four years still left on his contract. It seems unlikely that he’ll be inclined to tip his hand on that call, let alone pre-commit, so it’s hard to imagine how a deal could come together. The Giants, after all, won’t want to sacrifice value to rent Upton in a lost season. And the Tigers would surely rather deal him in the offseason or offer him a qualifying offer (if he opts out) than give him away for nothing. Of course, San Francisco could still pursue Upton in trade or free agency after the season if he ends up remaining with Detroit through the end of the season.
  • Another Mets pitcher has suffered a significant injury, though he is not a major leaguer. Prospect Jordan Humphreys has undergone Tommy John surgery, per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). The 21-year-old landed with the Mets as an 18th-round pick, but impressed this year at the Class A level, throwing 69 2/3 innings of 1.55 ERA ball with 10.3 K/9 against 1.2 BB/9. He had just been promoted to High-A before hitting the shelf. MLB.com recently rated Humphreys the organization’s 15th-best prospect.

Post-Deadline Notes: Gray, Cards, Darvish, Britton, Estrada, Braves

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The Cardinals “float[ed]” a trade proposal for Sonny Gray before the Athletics shipped him to the Yankees, according to MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal. In concept, at least, St. Louis would have considered sending young outfielder Stephen Piscotty to Oakland along with a promising starter (Luke Weaver or Jack Flaherty), though it seems talks never got going. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch looks closer at the Cards’ lack of action on deadline day. Top baseball decisionmaker John Mozeliak acknowledged “a level of frustration” that nothing got done, though he also said the team wasn’t inclined to make deals just for the sake of action. Ultimately, momentum never built toward a deal for Lance Lynn, and the club’s other chatter never materialized into a trade. You’ll want to peruse the lengthy column for all the details.

Here are some more post-deadline links of note:

  • The Dodgers’ acquisition of Yu Darvish came together quite late, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports explains in fascinating detail. It became apparent the Dodgers wouldn’t get Zach Britton from the Orioles within a half hour of the deadline, but the team had already “abandoned hope” of landing Darvish. The Rangers, meanwhile, had run through their alternative trade partners for the ace righty and found none availing. The paths of the two organizations converged just twenty minutes before the deadline. You’ll certainly want to give the story a full read; Texas fans will also want to check out this piece from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News on the team’s unannounced but still-evident rebuilding path.
  • In the end, there just wasn’t that much demand in the marketplace for Darvish, Rosenthal also notes — so much so that the Dodgers were nearly in position to land both Darvish from the Rangers and lefty Zach Britton from the Orioles. That said, there was “some overlap” between the prospects in both potential deals, and it obviously would’ve required a steep overall price to get both arms. Instead, Los Angeles added two different lefties, Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani.
  • As regards Britton, Rosenthal had some stern words for how things played out. The Orioles spurned not only the Dodgers but likely also the Astros. For Baltimore, the deadline approach “was disturbingly short-sighted,” by Rosenthal’s reckoning. And when Houston wasn’t able to find another top-end arm, says Rosenthal, its body of deadline work became a “lost opportunity.” It does seem worth bearing in mind, particularly regarding the Astros, that the August trade period appears to be full of opportunities for making further moves if the need is there.
  • Over in Toronto, the Blue Jays ended up holding onto righty Marco Estrada and then watched him turn in a strong outing last night. As Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca writes, Jays GM Ross Atkins suggested yesterday that the organization may yet see Estrada as a part of the team’s future — though his contract is up at year’s end and he perhaps remains a plausible August trade piece. With Estrada remaining in Toronto through the deadline, said Atkins, “we’ll start thinking about not only how he impacts us now, but how he can potentially impact us beyond 2017.”
  • Be sure also to check out the trade deadline rundown from Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, who assesses some winners and losers from the day’s action. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney also issued deadline grades in an Insider piece.
  • With the Braves holding on deadline day, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman takes stock of the months to come. Second baseman Brandon Phillips, reliever Jim Johnson, and starter R.A. Dickey could all be possible August trade chips, he notes, while the inclination of the organization remains to consider deals involving first baseman Matt Adams over the offseason. Meanwhile, Atlanta continues its long-standing pursuit of controllable pitching, though that’ll surely await the end of the current season.

Midday Market Chatter: Nats, Dodgers, Lynn, Panik

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The Nationals have been linked to a variety of relievers even after adding two veterans earlier this month, and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets that the pursuit continues in earnest today. While it seems a variety of hurlers could be of interest, adding a pitcher capable of taking on closing duties remains a “priority,” per the report. Washington has been connected to Brandon Kintzler of the Twins today, along with a long list of other pitchers.

Here’s some more midday chatter as the non-waiver deadline looms:

  • Some Dodgers front office folks would like to see the club come away with a “wipeout left-handed reliever” today, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. That has been noted as a strong priority over recent weeks, of course, though the club has also been said to be eyeing top-tier starting pitching as well. At this point, it would seem, Zach Britton of the Orioles is the likeliest target among lefty pen pieces, though it’s still unclear whether he’ll end up being moved.
  • There’s industry chatter linking the Indians to Cardinals righty Lance Lynn, Olney tweets — a connection that was made a few days ago as well. And Cleveland also has some interest in discussing some of the excess young outfielders on the St. Louis roster, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch adds on Twitter. The Cards are said to be willing to listen on some such position players — in particular, Tommy Pham and Randal Grichuk. It’s not immediately clear, though, whether the sides are engaged in earnest today.
  • The Angels have been rumored to be looking at second basemen of late, and recently spoke with the Giants about Joe Panik, per Olney (via Twitter). But those talks evidently did not materialize into anything the sides found worthy of further pursuit, and there’s no indication that Panik is in play today.
  • Both the Cubs and Red Sox appear to have made their moves at this point, per reports from Olney (via Twitter) and Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal (Twitter link). Chicago is, however, still keeping an eye out for controllable pitching depth, while Boston will also “monitor [the] market” up until the deadline.
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