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Lance Lynn

AL Rumors: Jays, Lynn, Rangers, Cashner, Tigers, Orioles, Machado

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The Blue Jays have shown at least some offseason interest in free agent right-hander Lance Lynn and center fielder Jarrod Dyson, according to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, who also lists the previously reported Lorenzo Cain and Alex Cobb. Whether they add any of those players, other free agents or go the trade route, the Blue Jays still have the payroll flexibility to make notable moves, Davidi explains. And general manager Ross Atkins suggested to Davidi and other reporters Saturday that the Jays aren’t yet satisfied with their their outfield or starting pitching, adding that they “could go several directions” for help. “We feel like we have one of the better systems in baseball, it’s not the best, we still have work to do, we feel that we’re probably in the top third, but we have plenty of depth to protect us throughout the major-league season, to provide options for us throughout the major-league season and to trade from,” Atkins said. “Whether that’s a bigger deal or a smaller deal, we’ll see, but we are now in a position where we have that option.”

More on a few other American League teams:

  • The Rangers are still in touch with free agent right-hander Andrew Cashner, who’s interested in re-signing with the team, TR Sullivan of MLB.com reports. After Cashner joined the Rangers on a $10MM guarantee last winter, the Texas native proceeded to toss 166 2/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball, but that came with the majors’ worst K/BB ratio among qualified starters. Cashner, 31, is reportedly seeking a three-year contract this time around. If the Rangers ultimately do bring Cashner back, he’d follow Doug Fister, Mike Minor and Matt Moore as the fourth established rotation piece to latch on with them this winter (though Minor hasn’t started a big league game since 2014).
  • Earlier this week, Tigers general manager Al Avila discussed the futures of shortstop Jose Iglesias, third baseman/outfielder Nicholas Castellanos and catcher James McCann with Dan Dickerson and Pat Caputo on 97.1’s The Ticket (via Katie Strang of The Athletic; subscription required and strongly recommended). Avila expects Iglesias to be the Tigers’ Opening Day shortstop, but he acknowledged that the 28-year-old’s time with the franchise is likely to conclude in the near future. Iglesias “may well be traded at the trade deadline, if not sooner, depending on the needs that teams have out there for a shortstop,” said Avila. Strang goes on to break down potential replacements within the organization for Iglesias, who’s in his last year of arbitration eligibility (he’ll make a projected $5.6MM). Castellanos is in his penultimate year of arb control, meanwhile, and he’ll collect around $7.6MM. Although the Tigers have come up short in extending Castellanos, “he might be a guy that we stick with,” commented Avila, who noted that the soon-to-be 26-year-old’s stock would increase “quite a bit” if he were to make a successful transition to the outfield.  McCann is under control for the next three years, but Avila suggested that he could be a trade candidate, per Strang. (In case you missed it, MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently examined Iglesias, Castellanos, McCann and the rest of Detroit’s potential trade chips.)
  • The Diamondbacks “doubled back with renewed interest” in Orioles infielder Manny Machado, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. A deal is not imminent, though, as Kubatko notes that nobody has sent the pitching-needy Orioles an offer good enough to convince them to move Machado. As of December, Arizona reportedly wasn’t willing to part with third baseman Jake Lamb in a Machado package.

Free Agent Profile: Lance Lynn

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Lance Lynn, a right-handed starting pitcher who turns 31 in May, has spent his entire career with the Cardinals since being drafted in 2008.  He’s one of the four best starting pitchers on the free agent market, and he’ll continue seeking a multiyear deal in the new year.

MLB: San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals

Pros/Strengths

Though Lynn missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, he otherwise carries a reputation of durability.  In each of the pitcher’s other five seasons, he’s made at least 29 starts.  Lynn was one of only 12 pitchers to make 33 regular season starts in 2017, a claim only Ricky Nolasco can make among fellow free agents.

Lynn has delivered results throughout his big league career.  He’s never posted an ERA above 4.00 in a season, and carries a 3.38 career mark that he basically matched this year.  While Lynn lacks supporting stats to back up this year’s 3.43 ERA, consider this from Eno Sarris of FanGraphs:

“But not only is there an existing fastball-mixing skill that’s not currently captured by projections in his current arsenal, there’s potential for an emerging new pitch [a changeup] in there as well. Lynn’s an intriguing watch, and signing, for a guy who mostly throws fastballs.”

Some teams may look at Lynn as a pitcher with a track record of success and durability, plus some upside given the right tweaks.

Cons/Weaknesses

In attempting to make a post-Tommy John assessment of Lynn’s abilities, we only have his 186 1/3 innings this year.  He posted career-worsts in three key categories: strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate.  His walk rate was second-worst among all qualified starters.  Using SIERA, it was a blend of skills that suggested a 4.85 ERA, much worse than his actual 3.43 mark.  Lynn benefited from a .244 batting average on balls in play, which is not considered a repeatable mark.  To his benefit in the future, Lynn’s 14.2% home run per flyball rate probably won’t stay that high.  Still, it just wasn’t an intriguing mix of skills this year.  A team signing Lynn has to hope or expect to bring back his prior abilities.  His second half, with even worse strikeout and walk rates, did not qualify as progress.

While Lynn should be able to take the ball every fifth day, he’s not likely to save a team’s bullpen.  Of 58 starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, Lynn ranked 42nd with an average of 5.64 innings per start.

Lynn rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals in November, so he’ll come with a draft pick cost attached.

Background

Lynn was drafted 39th overall by the Cardinals in 2008 out of the University of Mississippi.  He was a supplemental pick for the loss of free agent reliever Troy Percival, who had inked an $8MM deal with the Rays.  Among those born in Indiana with at least 900 career innings pitched, Lynn ranks sixth with a .605 career winning percentage, behind Art Nehf.

Market

The Rangers, Brewers, and Orioles have been linked to Lynn to some degree in reports this offseason.  Other theoretical fits could include the Angels, Blue Jays, Mariners, Cubs, Phillies, and Mets.  There seems to be little momentum for a return to the Cardinals.  Lynn must contend with fellow free agent Alex Cobb, who is in a similar tier.   Plus, if the price somehow drops far enough on Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish, those pitchers could interfere with Lynn’s market.  In fact, they may be currently holding it up.

Expected Contract

Back in October, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote that Lynn would pursue a deal like the five-year, $110MM pact signed by Jordan Zimmermann signed two years ago.  We went with a four-year, $56MM projection, which I’ll upgrade to four years and $60MM.  Normally at this point in the offseason, we’d call for reduced contracts, but it’s unclear whether that will happen given the sheer volume of unsigned quality free agents.

Latest On Pitching Plans For Rangers, Orioles Entering Winter Meetings

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Every team in baseball is still looking for pitching, so in that regard the Rangers and Orioles don’t stand out. But these two organizations are similarly situated in some regards; notably, each came into the offseason with rosters that appear to be capable but not certain of contention along with clear needs for significant improvement in their starting rotations.

For Texas, the Winter Meetings offer an opportunity and a challenge to chart a course that won’t involve Shohei Ohtani. While the pursuit of the two-way Japanese star is over, the team is still considering some novel approaches to its rotation usage. As Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes, that might involve a six or even four-man rotation setup, depending in no small part upon the team’s eventual moves. Of course, Mike Minor and Doug Fister were already brought aboard, but that doesn’t mean the club is done adding.

Notably, the Rangers aren’t just looking at budget arms. According to Grant, the club has not only checked in on quality veterans like Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn, but has “maintained some contact” with former star Yu Darvish and hasn’t yet ruled out a surprise reunion. While he was dealt away at the trade deadline after the sides failed to line up on an extension, Darvish’s roots in Texas obviously trace back to his initial entry to the majors. Grant cautions that the team isn’t planning to lead the charge after Darvish or another top hurler, but it’s notable nonetheless that there seems to be serious consideration.

It’s less pressing in some regards, but the Rangers will also be looking to improve their relief corps. Late-inning pieces, in particular, would clearly be on the wish list. One player to keep an eye on, per MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter), is righty Brandon Kintzler. Of course, he has also been linked to quite a few other organizations. The sinkerballer has obviously boosted his stock quite a bit with a hefty groundball rate and steady work in high-leverage situations over the past two seasons. Japanese reliever Kazuhisa Makita could also represent a potential target for Texas, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News writes.

The situation is somewhat different for the Orioles, whose need for rotation pieces is even greater than that of the Rangers. With multiple pieces needed and relatively little available payroll space, Baltimore isn’t going to dabble at the top of the market, Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com writes. That’s essentially the same conclusion reached by Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, who says the Orioles “really like” Cobb but don’t expect to be able to afford him.

Wary of the risks of a long-term pitching contract, the O’s plan instead to look further down the pecking order of rotation pieces. As Connolly explains, though, several of those pitchers have already gone off the market with early deals. Veteran righty Andrew Cashner is perhaps the most logical remaining mid-tier target for the team, he notes, while a variety of less costly pitchers also figure to be strongly considered. Both reports suggest southpaw Jason Vargas as a plausible name to bolster the back end of the rotation, so he’s certainly a player to watch.

Quick Hits: Betancourt, Rangers, Cobb, Lynn, Padres

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Brewers infield prospect Javier Betancourt was shot in the arm in the wake of an argument on Friday in his native Venezuela, according to reporter Andriw Sanchez Ruiz (hat tip to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).  Betancourt is headed to Milwaukee to recover and surgery may be required, though Brewers GM David Stearns told Haudricourt (Twitter link) that the club is still considering treatment options.  “Javier’s injuries are not life threatening and he is resting comfortably,” Stearns said.  MLB security is currently investigating the incident.  Betancourt, 22, joined the Brewers from the Tigers in November 2015 as part of the return in the Francisco Rodriguez trade.  The infielder has hit .265/.311/.357 over 2231 career plate appearances in the minors, with the last two seasons coming at Milwaukee’s Double-A affiliate.  All of us at MLBTR wish Betancourt the best in a full recovery.

Here are some notes from around baseball…

  • The Rangers signed Doug Fister earlier today but aren’t done looking for pitching, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link) that the club is still showing interest in Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn.  Given the uncertainty in the Texas rotation and Fister’s own inconsistent performance in recent years, it isn’t surprising that the Rangers are looking to further augment their staff with a pitcher who could be more comfortably slotted near the front of the rotation.  Texas has cast a wide net in search of pitching help — beyond Cobb and Lynn, the team has also been linked to Jake Arrieta and Tyler Chatwood, plus the Rangers are expected to be one of the top suitors for Shohei Otani.
  • The Padres have some degree of interest in Eric Hosmer since he is younger than other free agent first base options, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  For instance, Lin hasn’t heard of anything serious about the Padres pursuing Carlos Santana, the second-best first baseman on the open market.  Hosmer is just 28, and thus if signed to a long-term deal, would likely still be a contributor once the Padres are ready to contend.  A player like Santana, who turns 32 in April, could already be declining by the time San Diego is done rebuilding, which could be at least two seasons from now.  Of course, the Padres also already have Wil Myers at first base, and a Hosmer signing is probably the only scenario that would see the team ask Myers to move to a corner outfield spot.

Free Agent Faceoff: Lance Lynn Vs. Alex Cobb

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When it comes to the starting pitching market this offseason, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb will hold some of the widest appeal of any names on the market. Both right-handers would be an upgrade to virtually any rotation in the Majors, and both figure to be more affordable to interested parties than top-of-the-market names like Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. Each enjoyed a solid 2017 campaign in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, though neither has fully regained the form he showed prior to that operation. Both players rejected one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offers, so both will require draft-pick forfeiture to sign.

Lance Lynn | Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Lynn, 31 next May, is the older of the two but has also been more durable throughout his career. While he missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, he’s averaged 31.8 starts and 189 innings per season across his past five healthy campaigns — dating back to the 2012 season. The 3.43 ERA that Lynn turned in this past season bears a striking resemblance to the 3.39 mark he’s compiled in 943 innings from 2012-17.

Looking beyond Lynn’s ERA, though, there were plenty more red flags in 2017 than he had in his peak seasons. Lynn’s velocity, strikeout rate and walk rate are all worse than the marks he posted in his best seasons, and a huge spike in his homer-to-flyball rate (14.2 percent) led to a career-worst 1.30 HR/9 mark. Of course, home runs were up leaguewide, with many believing an altered composition of the baseball being a primary factor in that trend. Lynn’s secondary numbers are far less encouraging than his ERA, but he did take the ball 33 times and log 186 1/3 innings — largely reestablishing himself as a reliable source of innings.

Alex Cobb | Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Cobb, on the other hand, will pitch the 2018 season at the age of 30. Unlike Lynn, durability has never been a strong point in his favor and could, in fact, be the single largest red flag attached to his free agency. Cobb tossed 179 1/3 innings in 2017, and that marked a career-high. We’ve never seen a free-agent starter without a 180-inning season under his belt score a four-year commitment on the open market, but there’s a belief that Cobb could set a new precedent in that regard.

In those 179 1/3 innings, Cobb turned in a 3.66 ERA but did so with a pedestrian K/9 mark of 6.4, albeit against a strong 2.2 BB/9 mark and with an above-average 47.8 percent ground-ball rate. Interested teams will no doubt be heartened by the fact that Cobb’s K/BB numbers overwhelmingly trended in the right direction down the stretch, as he posted a 38-to-8 K/BB ratio with a 2.82 ERA and a 3.01 xFIP in his final 38 1/3 innings. That bears a strong resemblance to Cobb’s peak, when he turned in a 2.82 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 309 2/3 frames. Of course, that performance also came way back in 2013-14, and until his final seven starts of the season, he hadn’t approximated that form post-surgery.

The markets for Cobb and Lynn seem almost certain to overlap, as they’ll be widely regarded as the Nos. 3 and 4 starting pitchers on the open market (excluding Shohei Ohtani, whose unique market can’t exactly be compared to that of standard Major League free agents). Teams will weigh Lynn’s considerably greater track record of durability against Cobb’s strong finish and superior performance leading up to Tommy John surgery. Either of the two could slot comfortably into the middle of most big league rotations or, at worst, serve as a strong fourth or fifth starter in a more premium rotation.

Obviously, this is a high-level look and there are many other considerations to factor into the decision. That said, let’s see where MLBTR readers stand on the issue (link to poll for MLBTR app users)…

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Central Notes: Brewers, Brinson, Cardinals, Martinez

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Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported yesterday that the Brewers have shown interest in Jake Arrieta, and in a followup column he writes that they’ve expressed interest in most of the top starters on the market, including right-hander Lance Lynn. Milwaukee will be without Jimmy Nelson for a yet-undetermined portion of the 2018 season due to shoulder surgery, and with question marks in the rotation behind Chase Anderson and Zach Davies, shoring up the starting five is a priority for GM David Stearns and his staff. While there’s certainly the possibility that they’ll be outbid on the top names in free agency, the Brewers do have considerable payroll space to surprise people with their spending this winter.

More out of Milwaukee and the division…

  • Top Brewers prospect Lewis Brinson has changed representation and is now a client of the Legacy Agency, tweets Robert Murray of FanRag Sports. The 23-year-old center fielder made his MLB debut in 2017 but struggled greatly in 55 plate appearances, hitting just .106/.236/.277. However, Brinson tore through Triple-A at a .331/.400/.562 pace through 340 PAs and is widely regarded as one of the top overall prospects in all of baseball. His switch has been noted in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains info on more than 2,500 Major League and minor league players. If you see any errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
  • The Cardinals’ search for an impact bat is expansive, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak and his staff have had discussions with virtually every impact bat on the market, including Eric Hosmer, and their trade talks with the Marlins have gone beyond Giancarlo Stanton and also touched on Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich (presumably not in the same deal). Two execs with other teams told Goold that the Cardinals have been aggressive in trade talks thus far. “We’ve got capacity to increase our payroll depending on the right situation,” owner Bill DeWitt Jr. tells Goold.
  • Jose Martinez is utilizing the Venezuelan Winter League to further familiarize himself with playing first base, writes MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. The Cardinals gave Martinez, who has spent most of his career in the outfield, 29 starts at first last season and plan to use him there again in 2018 (though more in a backup role). Martinez has started nine of his 13 VWL games at first base and figures to continue to gain more exposure there over the course of the offseason. The 29-year-old hit .309/.379/.518 with 14 homers in 307 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2017.

Orioles Interested In Lance Lynn

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The Orioles are interested in free agent right-hander Lance Lynn, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports (Twitter link). Morosi adds that the Orioles slightly prefer fellow righty Alex Cobb, however, thanks to his vast experience in the American League East. Morosi first linked Cobb to the Orioles on Friday.

Either Lynn or Cobb is the third-best established starter on the market behind Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, and signing one of the two second-tier arms would ostensibly be a boon to a Baltimore rotation in dire need of help. Orioles starters placed 27th in the majors in fWAR (5.5) and dead last in ERA (5.70) during the regular season, and with 2017 rotation members Chris Tillman, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Miley and Ubaldo Jimenez now on the open market, the team is on the hunt for multiple starters.

Lynn debuted as a regular in the Cardinals’ rotation in 2012 and has quietly been among the majors’ most consistent workhorses since then. With the exception of 2016, which he missed after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Lynn hasn’t finished with fewer than 29 starts or 175 1/3 innings in any full season. The fastball specialist has also thrived at keeping opposing offenses at bay, evidenced by a 3.37 ERA that ranks tied for 22nd among big league starters since 2012.

The 30-year-old Lynn spun 186 1/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball in 2017, though his terrific run prevention came in spite of underwhelming rates in the strikeout (7.39 K/9; down from 8.46 lifetime) and walk (3.77; up from 3.4) departments. A fair amount of Lynn’s success last season was on account of a .244 batting average on balls in play, way down from his .297 career mark, but it wasn’t solely a product of good fortune. Lynn tied with a handful of starters – including National League Cy Young winner Max Scherzer – for 25th out of 94 qualifiers in average exit velocity allowed (85.7 mph). Thanks in part to that, his expected weighted on-base average allowed (.310) was right in line with the .309 wOBA he surrendered.

Considering both Lynn’s track record and the dearth of big-time starters available in free agency, he’s in line to land one of the offseason’s richest contracts. With Lynn having rejected the Cardinals’ $17.4MM qualifying offer, signing him would cost Baltimore its third-highest pick in next summer’s draft, which isn’t much of a deterrent in and of itself. But, as much as Lynn could help the O’s rotation in 2018, it’s debatable whether they’d be wise to hand a lucrative long-term deal to him, Cobb or anyone else this winter with core players Manny Machado, Zach Britton, Adam Jones and Brad Brach scheduled to hit free agency next year.

Heyman’s Latest: Moore, Cain, Rangers, Vargas/O’s, Rodney/D-Backs

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In his latest Inside Baseball column, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag looks into the Royals front office. Owner David Glass is “considering a possible two-year extension” for GM Dayton Moore, writes Heyman, even though Moore has “no leverage” given that he’s already under contract for three more seasons. This all arises after Glass declined to allow the Braves to speak with Moore about changing squads. While Moore has expressed gratitude to ownership, his recent comments were interesting, if difficult to interpret with any precision. All told, it seems there could still be some unresolved matters in the Kansas City front office.

Let’s look at a few more items from Heyman of particular relevance to the still-developing hot stove season:

  • Top free agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain has drawn some early interest from the Mets and Giants, according to Heyman. As regards the New York organization, this information seems to conflict with recent statements from Mets GM Sandy Alderson — though as ever it’s worth taking things with a grain of salt and acknowledging fluidity this time of year. As for the Giants, we at MLBTR pegged San Francisco as the likeliest landing spot for Cain, though some doubt whether the organization will go over the luxury tax line and sacrifice draft choices to land him. At a minimum, though, the organization would seem to be wise to do some diligence on the possibility.
  • The Rangers have “looked into” free agent righties Lance Lynn and Tyler Chatwood, says Heyman. While it’s not clear just how serious the interest is, the link isn’t surprising. Texas clearly needs arms; indeed, MLBTR guessed they’d land Lynn. While Chatwood doesn’t have nearly the track record of results that Lynn does, he is an intriguing option in his own right and shares some of the characteristics of Andrew Cashner — the former Ranger free agent signee who is himself back on the open market.
  • Another team with a desire to add several starters (and with reputed interest in Chatwood) is the Orioles. The Baltimore front office met with agents for lefty Jason Vargas during the GM Meetings, Heyman reports. The 34-year-old veteran seems to be a good match for the O’s, as we predicted, since the team needs to find so many rotation innings and can’t afford to make major long-term commitments to multiple starters.
  • The Diamondbacks are “open” to bringing back Fernando Rodney, GM Mike Hazen tells Heyman. Arizona is facing a difficult payroll situation but obviously will be looking to maintain and improve upon a Wild Card-winning roster. Though Rodney didn’t dominate last year, he’s still throwing mid-nineties heat and generating quite a few swings and misses — and obviously met with the approval of the D-Backs’ brass in the closer’s role. Beyond improving the pen, the Arizona priority is to improve in the outfield, per the report. That could mean pursuing under-the-radar additions; though Hazen says he’s not ruling out a return for J.D. Martinez, that’d almost certainly require the kind of payroll increase that does not appear to be under consideration.

All 9 Recipients Reject Qualifying Offer

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THURSDAY: Officially, all nine players have rejected their qualifying offers and become free agents, the MLBPA has announced (h/t Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, on Twitter).

MONDAY: All nine of the free agents that received a one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offer will reject that offer in favor of free agency, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports writes. Each of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Greg Holland and Carlos Santana will turn down that one-year opportunity in search of a multi-year pact in free agency.

In doing so, that group of nine will also subject themselves to draft-pick compensation and position their former clubs to recoup some value in next year’s amateur draft should they sign elsewhere. Last offseason’s new collective bargaining agreement altered the specifics of that compensation, tying the draft picks received and surrendered largely to the luxury tax threshold, revenue sharing and the size of the contract signed by the free agent in question.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained which draft picks each of the six teams that issued a qualifying offer would receive, should their free agents sign elsewhere, as well as which picks all 30 teams would be required to surrender if they are to sign a qualified free agent. Prior to that, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk provided a more comprehensive and in-depth overview of the new QO system, for those that are unfamiliar or would like a refresher on the finer details.

It’s been reported for quite some time that Kansas City will make a strong effort to retain Hosmer. Heyman added over the weekend that the Royals will also push to keep Moustakas but feel that Cain is almost certain to land elsewhere on the open market. The Rockies are known to have interest in re-upping with Holland on a multi-year deal, and Heyman notes within today’s column that the Rays “understand [Cobb] is out of their reach financially” and will sign elsewhere. He also adds that Davis seems to be likelier than Arrieta to return to Chicago.

It’s unlikely that there will be any formal announcements just yet. Among the changes to the QO system under the 2017-21 CBA was that QO recipients would have 10 days, rather than seven, to determine whether to accept or reject the offer. The deadline to issue QOs was last Monday, so the recipients still technically have until this coming Thursday to formally declare their intention. But, barring a last-minute freak injury it seems that each of the nine will go the widely expected route and enter free agency in search of the most substantial contracts in their respective careers.

Twins, Brewers Enter Offseason In Position To Spend

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Each year, our top ranking of the top 50 free agents and their projected contracts/destinations prompts many to raise an eyebrow. In the now five years that I’ve spent contributing to that behemoth of a post, though, I’m not sure I can recall a more unpopular pick with readers than the notion that Jake Arrieta could sign with the Brewers for what would be the largest free-agent signing in Milwaukee’s franchise history. The notion that the Brewers would win a bidding war isn’t one to which most are accustomed. Milwaukee signed Matt Garza to a four-year, $50MM contract prior to the 2014 season and has, at times, played in the second tier of free agency. But the Brewers are among baseball’s smallest markets, and placing Arrieta there admittedly felt odd even for us.

The question we kept asking, however, is: Why should it? The Brewers are one of two teams we kept coming back to that are in a position to act in a manner in which we’ve never really seen them act before. The other is just a five-hour drive to the west, in Minneapolis. I’m not suggesting that it’s a slam dunk that we’ll see the Brewers and Twins shatter their longstanding small-market perception; however, there’s an argument to be made for both teams to give serious consideration to spending far more aggressively this winter than they have in years past.

The 2017 season was a similar tale for both the Brewers and the Twins. Each club was largely written off heading into the 2017 season as they sought to continue rebuilding with an eye more toward 2018 and beyond than toward 2017. Last winter, the Twins’ biggest expenditure was a $24.5MM contract for veteran catcher Jason Castro. The Brewers spent $16MM on KBO reclamation project Eric Thames. The moves were not met with excessive fanfare.

But both the Brewers and Twins saw the majority of their young, potential core pieces take a step forward. Travis Shaw and Domingo Santana broke out with three-win seasons in Milwaukee, while Thames made good on his investment. Jimmy Nelson, Chase Anderson and Zach Davies led a surprisingly strong rotation, and Corey Knebel announced his presence as one of the best relievers on the planet.

Over in Minnesota, Byron Buxton rebounded from a terrible start and batted .274/.333/.452 over his final 459 PAs with elite defense. Miguel Sano hit 28 homers in 114 games before a stress reaction from a foul ball to the shin cut his season short. Eddie Rosario belted 26 homers, Jorge Polanco posted a 128 wRC+ in the second half, and Jose Berrios established himself as a useful big league starter. Joe Mauer even quietly rebounding to hit .305/.384/.417 (116 wRC+).

Suddenly, both teams look like potential contenders not just in 2018 but for the foreseeable future. The Twins share a division with the rebuilding White Sox and Tigers. The Royals are set to lose Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas to free agency after already having bid adieu to Wade Davis and Greg Holland in recent years. In 2018, at least, the AL Central outlook is promising for the Twins and the Indians.

Milwaukee will have to deal with the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates in 2018, but the Bucs had a tough season and will soon have to seriously entertain trade offers for both Andrew McCutchen (a free agent next winter) and Gerrit Cole (a free agent the following offseason). The Cardinals are expected to radically alter their roster after a pair of disappointing seasons. The Cubs have work to do on the pitching front. Any of those teams could contend next year.

One advantage that both the Brewers and Twins have over their division rivals, though, is a largely blank payroll slate moving forward. Even after arbitration projections, the Twins have just $85.5MM on the books for the 2018 season. After the coming year, that commitment drops to $24MM. Minnesota doesn’t have a single dollar committed to the books in 2020.

It’s an even more favorable situation in Milwaukee (at least as far as 2018 is concerned). The Brewers have just $55MM committed payroll (including arbitration projections) and $31.5MM of guaranteed cash on the 2019 books. The recent extension of Chase Anderson gives them club options over the right-hander for the 2019-20 seasons, and Milwaukee also holds a 2020 option on Thames. Ryan Braun is the only guaranteed contract on the 2020 ledger, and his front-loaded deal will call for just a $16MM salary that season. That wide-open payroll was a large reason that the Brewers were connected to Justin Verlander on the summer trade market; the injury to Jimmy Nelson perhaps only adds impetus to the pursuit of a significant hurler.

Further working in the favor of both traditionally low-payroll clubs is the fact that many of the big-market teams that typically dominate free agency are either taking a step back on spending in 2017-18 or figure to focus their spending on areas other than the Twins and Brewers, who both need pitching help. It’s possible to imagine scenarios where the best pitchers don’t generate feverish bidding frenzies — perhaps allowing surprise suitors to participate in the market in a more measured way than the Diamondbacks did with their sudden and massive outlay for Zack Greinke.

The Yankees, for instance, have bluntly stated that they plan to get under the luxury tax barrier in advance of the 2018-19 mega crop of free agents (featuring Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Clayton Kershaw, Craig Kimbrel and many others). The Red Sox’ primary focus seems like it’ll be on adding a significant bat to the lineup rather than adding arms. The Giants have often played at the top of the free-agent market, but they’re already on the cusp of the luxury tax threshold before making a single move. The Angels have money to spend but have already committed to Justin Upton and still need to add a pair of infielders. The Tigers won’t spend much this winter as they kick off an aggressive rebuild. The Rangers are attempting to scale back their payroll by $10MM or so. The Nationals surpassed the luxury tax line in 2017 and already have a pair of $25MM+ annual salaries in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.

There will still be large-market teams looking to spend, of course. The Cubs need to add at least two arms in the rotation and could conceivably target as many as three bullpen additions. The Dodgers have reportedly been aiming to gradually pare back the payroll but of course still figure to spend some money this offseason, even if this current front-office regime hasn’t made a habit of top-level free-agent expenditures. Even the Phillies, once one of the team’s highest-payroll clubs prior to this rebuild, could begin throwing some dollars around this winter now that several of their own young players (e.g. Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Nola, Aaron Altherr, Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams) are showing promise at the big league level with others on the cusp.

That said, the Twins and Brewers nonetheless find themselves in the unique position of having pristine long-term payroll outlooks with a burgeoning young core carving out its foothold in the Majors. With several big-market teams likely to eschew massive contracts, they’ll have the opportunity to perhaps be unusually competitive when it comes to names for whom they’d traditionally be outbid. None of this is to say that Minnesota or Milwaukee should be considered the odds-on favorites to sign a Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, but it stands to reason that both could consider those types of moves far more closely than we’re traditionally accustomed to seeing. In fact, as I was finishing writing this piece, FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported that the Twins are indeed expected to consider a run at top-tier names like Darvish, Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. And Brewers owner Mark Attanasio told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel in late September that the team’s financial flexibility may allow it to “punch a little bit above [its] weight.”

Trades will, as ever, factor into the decision-making process for both clubs this winter. Each still has a number of intriguing prospects despite the significant amount of graduations in recent years, and there’s something to be said for pursuing a controllable arm from the Rays, Pirates or Cardinals — organizations that possess multiple intriguing young pitchers that could conceivably be dangled on the trade market this offseason. However, those markets figure to be ultra-competitive, and part of the way in which the Twins and Brewers got to their current standpoint was by stockpiling young prospects and filling out their roster with that talent. Maintaining a quality pipeline of high-upside talent will remain a priority in both markets.

All of which leads back to the idea that the Twins, who haven’t topped $110MM in payroll since 2011, and Brewers, who have never opened the season with even a $105MM payroll, could be more aggressive than any would expect based on history. Some will roll their eyes at the notion, and it may prove in the end that neither lands a top-ranked free agent, but both Milwaukee and Minnesota are in excellent position to alter their image this offseason if they find an opportunity to their liking.

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