It was reported last month that the Giants were looking to scale back payroll relative to 2024 levels, but that may no longer be the case. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports reports that the club initially had planned on focusing more on player development in 2025 while taking a step back in terms of building the major league roster, but now seems to have changed course.
That tracks with the club’s behavior in recent weeks. They just signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM deal and are reportedly involved on free agent right-hander Corbin Burnes, who is likely to get an even bigger deal than Adames. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, but basically every pitcher has been beating expectations this winter. Max Fried was predicted for $156MM over six years, notably below the prediction for Burnes, but got to $218MM over eight years. As such, it’s fair to expect Burnes to beat Fried’s guarantee by some margin.
If the Giants are ultimately successful in signing Burnes, it would put them pretty close to the competitive balance tax line. RosterResource projects their 2025 number at $208MM right now, which is $33MM below next year’s $241MM base threshold. The Giants crossed the CBT line in 2024 and the planned pay cut likely would have seen them stay below the line in 2025, but a Burnes deal would bridge most of that gap with still other moves likely to follow. In terms of pure dollars, they’re projected for $167MM next year, almost $40MM below their 2024 spending.
The pivot to a more aggressive winter bodes well for their chances in the upcoming season. Adames fills a clear area of need and Burnes would be a huge rotation upgrade if it comes together. In addition to the financial costs of those deals, there would be long-term consequences in terms of draft capabilities. The Giants gave up two picks in 2024, one each for signing Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, since each guy had rejected a qualifying offer. Since the Giants paid the tax in 2024, the penalties are higher this winter. Signing Adames means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two picks, their second- and fifth-highest choices in 2025. Like Adames, Burnes also rejected a qualifying offer, which would mean forfeiting another $1MM in pool space and another two picks.
Given that the club’s plan was initially going to involve player development, that’s a notable part of the pivot. However, it’s possible that the Giants simply want to make something happen now, more so than in the future. Their stunning 2021 campaign is their only winning season of the past eight years, so perhaps there’s an appetite to get over the hump sooner rather than later. New president of baseball operations Buster Posey spoke in his introductory press conference about the club getting back into the memory-making business, which has seemingly spurred the club towards shopping at or near the top of free agency.
Whether the Burnes deal can come together or not, the club will also have to consider other moves. In a separate column, Pavlovic notes that veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt “has a lot of fans in the organization.” Separately, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggests that Posey might be willing to sign veterans to short-term deals, floating Goldschmidt as a possibility alongside Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
Goldschmidt, 37, isn’t too far removed from winning National League Most Valuable Player in 2022 but his performance has declined in the past two years. He slashed .317/.404/.578 for a 175 wRC+ in his MVP season but he fell in 2023 and dropped even further this year. His 2024 batting line finished at .245/.302/.414 for a 100 wRC+, indicating he was exactly league average. His 7.2% walk rate and 26.5% strikeout rate were both career worsts, outside of his 2011 debut.
Whether he can bounce back in 2025 or not is a matter for debate. His age and recent decline don’t bode especially well, but there is arguably some confidence to be found in his strong finish this year. He hit just .230/.291/.373 in the first half of 2024 for an 87 wRC+ but then .271/.319/.480 in the second half for a 120 wRC+.
The Giants don’t strictly have a need at first base, with LaMonte Wade Jr. currently projected as their primary option there. However, they don’t have a clear everyday designated hitter at the moment. Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto got the most DH appearances in 2024 but Soler is now and Angel and Conforto a Dodger. Wilmer Flores could be in the mix there but he was dreadful in 2024 while battling knee problems and it’s unclear how much the Giants expect from him in 2025.
With the current roster construction, using the DH for some outfield overflow might make sense. The club has Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski likely in three outfield spots but with Grant McCray, Jerar Encarnación, Luis Matos, Marco Luciano and others on the roster. Having Goldschmidt and Wade sharing the DH spot and first base would make it hard to find extra at-bats for that group, though perhaps the Giants are willing to live with that in order to take a shot on Goldschmidt for his veteran leadership. He also wouldn’t be able to command a lengthy deal on account of his age and recent performance. MLBTR predicted him for a one-year pact with a $15MM guarantee at the start of the offseason.
There’s also the possibility of signing Goldschmidt and then making Wade available in trades. It was reported last month that Wade and Yastrzemski were indeed available, as well as some other players, though it’s unclear if the club’s recent change in plans has altered the availability of such players.
Wade were surely draw interest from other clubs if the Giants wanted to move him. He doesn’t provide the pop that clubs usually look to get from a first baseman, but he gets on base and isn’t too expensive. Over the past two years, he has drawn a walk in 15% of his 920 plate appearances. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber were the only big leaguers with at least 900 plate appearances and better walk rates in that time. Wade only hit 25 home runs over those two seasons but his .258/.376/.401 batting line still translated to a strong 120 wRC+.
For his career, Wade has notable platoon splits, with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and just a 64 wRC+ against lefties. He was much better against southpaws in 2024, though in a tiny sample of just 43 plate appearances. There are limits in his profile but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $4.7MM salary in his final year of club control.