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Poll: Who Will Be The No. 1 Overall Draft Pick?

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Major League Baseball’s annual amateur draft kicks off tonight at 7pm ET, and the Twins will be on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick for the first time since selecting local catcher out of St. Paul’s Cretin-Derham Hall high school named Joe Mauer back in 2001. While some draft classes have a very clear top overall pick (e.g. Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg), that doesn’t appear to be the case this season. There have been rumors circulating about who the Twins will select No. 1 overall tonight for months, now, and the top three names on the board, at the very least, seem to be clear….

  • Hunter Greene, RHP/SS, Notre Dame HS (Sherman Oaks, Calif.): Greene has been the most talked-about player in the draft class for the past year. A two-way high school star that has already graced the cover of Sports Illustrated and generated awe with a fastball that has reached 102 mph, Greene sits atop the draft rankings of MLB.com, Baseball America and ESPN. However, while he has the highest upside in the class, there’s also never been a high school right-hander selected No. 1 overall in the draft, and the risks associated with a prep pitcher are greater than those associated with a college player or even a fellow high school pitcher. Most mock drafts from experts have had the Twins passing on Greene, though he’s undoubtedly a tempting option for the new-look Minnesota front office.
  • Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt: Wright ranks first on Fangraphs’ list of draft prospects, just edging out Greene for that top spot. Over the past month, he’s been the most oft-connected name to the Twins, with most draft experts and scouting reports touting him as the best combination of ceiling and certainty. Armed with a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90s and can reach 97 mph, Wright also has solid control and three secondary offerings that scouting reports peg as average to above-average. He may not have generated as much fanfare and intrigue as the two-way stars that join him atop the draft class, but Wright is very much in the mix to go first overall.
  • Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, Louisville: Scouting reports on McKay are split on whether his best long-term fit is on the mound or as a position player, but there’s a general belief that he could excel either way. Whether a team prefers McKay as a pitcher or a hitter, he seems like a virtual lock to go in the top five of the draft. MLB.com’s report gives him a future 60-grade rating in either role, while ESPN’s Keith Law notes that he showed a bit of fatigue on the mound late in the season. Dedicating himself fully to one discipline under a professional coaching/player development staff could allow McKay to take his game to a new level in either direction. The Twins have been connected to McKay quite often, and while most mocks had Wright going No. 1 overall for the past month, McKay’s name has regained a bit of steam in the past few days.

Readers can check out more details on this year’s draft class by diving into the excellent work from Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (free); Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs (free); Keith Law of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required/recommended); and John Manuel and his team over at Baseball America (subscription required and, once again, recommended).

But, if you already have an opinion on the matter formed, let’s get right to the poll (link for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Draft Notes: Twins, Reds, Rays, Braves

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A day before the start of the 2017 MLB Draft, here are the current rumblings.

  • The Twins look likely to select Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright or Louisville two-way player Brendan McKay with the first overall pick, John Manuel of Baseball America writes in his last mock (which came out Friday). Late last week, Jim Callis of MLB.com suggested the Twins were leaning toward McKay, although it seems the first pick is still the subject of some uncertainty. Both sources have the Reds taking California high school righty Hunter Greene at No. 2 and the Padres going with North Carolina high school lefty MacKenzie Gore at No. 3, although those picks could seemingly change based on what the Twins end up doing. (ESPN’s Keith Law, by the way, has a long profile of Greene, calling him “the best prospect in the draft class and one of the most gifted teenage players I’ve ever seen,” even as he notes that kind of praise can lead to burdensome expectations.)
  • Interestingly, Jonathan Mayo’s latest update in the MLB.com link above cites speculation that the Rays at No. 4 and the Braves at No. 5 could make predraft deals with players to save money against the value of their picks and then go after highly regarded talents in later rounds. (The Rays have a pool of about $12.5MM, with the Braves at just under $10MM.) One possibility should the Rays go that route is Alabama high school outfielder Bubba Thompson, who MLB.com currently rates as the No. 26 prospect in the draft. Atlanta could do something similar, but they could also take Wright or California high school SS/OF Royce Lewis if those players are still available when they make their first selection.
  • It’s possible you remember Darren Baker, Dusty’s son, as the small batboy being yanked away from home plate by J.T. Snow in the 2002 World Series. Now, though, Darren is an outfield prospect with a commitment to Cal. Dusty says, though, that Darren will honor that commitment unless he’s drafted “real, real high,” according to Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post (on Twitter).

Draft Notes: Twins, Reds, McKay, Ramos, Canning, Heimlich

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Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis’ latest for MLB.com contains plenty of new details on next week’s amateur draft. Here’s the latest.

  • The Twins now seem increasingly likely to take two-way Louisville player Brendan McKay and develop him as a left-handed pitcher rather than a first baseman, Callis writes. The Twins had previously been connected to Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright, although they had California high school pitcher Hunter Greene in for a workout yesterday. The Reds will take Greene, unless the Twins pick him, in which case they’ll take McKay as a pitcher.
  • Heliot Ramos, a high school outfielder from Puerto Rico, could go somewhere in the middle of the first round, perhaps to the Astros, Giants or Orioles.
  • UCLA righty Griffin Canning’s stock appears to be falling over issues with his MRI, Mayo writes. Canning had been projected to go in the middle of the first round, but his MRI has some teams already deciding to pass on him. It’s not clear right now what those issues are. It’s perhaps worth noting that Canning’s potential arm troubles don’t seem to have hurt him this year — he has a 2.34 ERA and 140 whiffs over 119 innings this season.
  • A report late this week from Danny Moran and Brad Schmidt of the Oregonian should be disturbing news, to say the least, for teams interested in selecting Oregon State lefty Luke Heimlich. As a teenager, Heimlich reportedly pleaded guilty to molesting a 6-year-old family member. He reportedly is thus a registered sex offender. He was previously seen as a possible second- or third-rounder, but that seems unlikely after the emergence of this news. “You absolutely can’t draft him,” a scouting official with an NL team told Callis.

Draft Notes: Law, McKay, Pearson, Top Talents

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With the MLB draft less now less than two weeks away, a look at some of the latest news and rumors…

  • ESPN’s Keith Law has published his latest mock draft (Insider subscription required and strongly recommended) and, like many others, now has the Twins leaning toward Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright with the top pick. Looking a bit further down the board, Law has Louisville lefty/first baseman Brendan McKay slip a bit out of the top three to the Rays at No. 4, and looking further down the board a ways, he has the White Sox taking Vanderbilt outfielder Jeren Kendall, with whom Sox GM Rick Hahn met last week, according to Law. There’s interesting intel on the general types of players (e.g. college bats, high school arms, etc.) that many teams seem to be eyeing sprinkled throughout, making it well worth a look for anyone with an interest in the draft.
  • There’s been plenty of debate over whether McKay, a two-way star at Louisville, is best developed as a pitcher or a first baseman. There are compelling arguments for either side, and McKay seems to be a consensus top five pick  at this time. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen scouted McKay’s last game and provides some fairly extensive info on McKay’s repertoire as well as his swing, in addition to sharing a nearly 30-minute video of McKay on the mound. Longenhagen notes that he ultimately prefers McKay as a pitcher, though he calls the decision close enough that it’d be wise to allow McKay to hit and pitch early in his pro career. Longenhagen also wrote about McKay and the draft’s other two-way stars recently when unveiling Fangraphs’ sortable draft board — an invaluable free tool for draft followers which even includes some Trackman data that offers max fastball/curveball RPMs for pitchers.
  • Baseball America’s Hudson Belinsky writes that potential first-rounder Nate Pearson, a junior college righty out of Florida, helped his stock by reaching 101 mph in his most recent bullpen session. Some scouts even had Pearson as high as 102 mph, Belinsky writes.
  • MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo put together an “All-Draft Prospect Team” by creating a roster of the draft’s top talent at each position (three, in the case of outfielders, plus one right-hander and one left-hander). Mayo’s piece offers a paragraph or two of scouting info on each of the listed players.

Draft Rumors: Braves, Twins, Reds, Rising Names

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We’re a bit more than two weeks away from the 2017 draft, and rumors surrounding the top of the draft figure to pick up steam in the coming weeks. Some of the latest draft chatter…

  • Bill Shanks of the Macon Telegraph reports that the Braves are seriously considering North Carolina prep outfielder Austin Beck with the No. 5 overall pick. GM John Coppolella and scouting director Brian Bridges have held private workouts with Beck, who could sign an under-slot deal with Atlanta, giving the club more freedom to spend aggressively further down the draft board. The Braves went a similar route with the No. 3 overall pick last season when selecting high school righty Ian Anderson and signing him for about $2.5MM under slot. According to Shanks, the Braves have also met with other prep stars like Hunter Greene, Shane Baz, Nick Pratto and Royce Lewis, but Beck is perhaps the favorite to go with the fifth pick (Greene and Lewis are widely expected to be off the board before Atlanta’s pick).
  • Baseball America’s John Manuel published his latest mock draft over the weekend and once again has the Twins selecting Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright with the top overall pick. Minnesota has also considered Louisville left-hander/first baseman Brendan McKay extensively and seems to like him more as a hitter, writes Manuel, but Wright represents “the best combination of upside and modest risk.” Manuel’s mock draft is free to the public and runs through the supplemental round, so it’s an interesting look for any fan.
  • In his latest inbox column, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo notes that the Reds seem to prefer McKay as a pitcher rather than a hitter, though he goes through a couple of different hypothetical scenarios to illustrate that it’s not a lock that Cincinnati will select McKay even if he is available with their pick. Manuel, it should be pointed out, hears a bit differently, suggesting that the Reds are leaning slightly toward McKay as a hitter and adds that Cincinnati will take either McKay or Greene.
  • BA’s Carlos Collazo recently listed five high school talents whose stock is on the rise as the draft approaches and offers an explanation on each from an unnamed front office executive. Per Collazo, righty Caden Lemons, outfielder Mason House, right-hander Tommy Mace, left-hander Brendan Murphy and right-hander Jackson Rutledge have all worked their way into BA’s Top 200.

Quick Hits: Arrieta, Cespedes, Twins, Draft, Tribe, Astros

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As he’s wont to do, agent Scott Boras lobbied on behalf of one of his clients Saturday, the Cubs’ Jake Arrieta, brushing off concerns about the right-hander’s early season velocity drop. As Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com notes, the 31-year-old Arrieta has lost 2.5 mph on his fastball since 2015 – his NL Cy Young-winning campaign (he averaged 94.6 mph then) – but Boras doesn’t see it as a big deal. “The question becomes what’s (Clayton) Kershaw averaging? He’s throwing 92.5 mph,” said Boras. “(Zack) Greinke is throwing 91.8 mph. (Max) Scherzer, when he was a free agent, was throwing 92 mph.” Perhaps thanks to his decline in velocity, Arrieta has struggled to prevent runs in his contract year (4.92 ERA in 56 2/3 innings), but Boras still regards him as an “elite pitcher” who has proven it time and again in the regular season and playoffs.

More from around the game:

  • In yet another unfortunate break for the injury-laden Mets, left fielder Yoenis Cespedes felt soreness in his right quad Friday and won’t take live at-bats until at least Tuesday, Marc Carig of Newsday was among those to report (Twitter links). Cespedes’ setback occurred while running the bases in a Class-A rehab game, and the club scratched him Saturday as a result. There had been hope that Cespedes would return during the Mets-Brewers series between Monday and Wednesday of the upcoming week, but that no longer looks like a possibility. The Mets have been without Cespedes since late April, when he landed on the disabled list with a hamstring strain after getting off to a blistering start (.270/.373/.619 with six home runs in 75 plate appearances). Notably, a right quad injury hampered him at times last season.
  • As they prepare to pick first overall in next month’s draft, the Twins are doing their due diligence on six players, but Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright has emerged as the front-runner, writes Jim Callis of MLB.com in his latest mock draft. Like Wright, Louisville first baseman/left-hander Brendan McKay is garnering strong consideration, notes Callis, with California high school righty Hunter Greene, North Carolina high school lefty MacKenzie Gore, California prep outfielder Royce Lewis and Virginia first baseman Pavin Smith also in the mix. Between Wright and McKay, the former has the higher ceiling, per Callis.
  • The Indians’ rotation could be in for a bit of a shakeup: Ace Corey Kluber, on the DL since May 3 with a strained lower back, will rejoin the team Thursday, relays the Associated Press. To make room for Kluber, righty Danny Salazar might head to the bullpen, reports Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. While all 95 of Salazar’s career appearances have come as a starter, the flamethrower hasn’t helped the Tribe in that capacity this season. Salazar has failed to complete six innings in five straight starts, including a 5 1/3-frame loss to the Royals on Saturday, and has pitched to a 5.50 ERA in 52 1/3 innings. While the 27-year-old has missed bats at a superstar-caliber level (12.55 K/9, 15.8 percent swinging-strike rate), he has offset that with a lofty walk rate (4.82 per nine) and a sky-high home run-to-fly ball ratio (22.9 percent).
  • The Astros, meanwhile, are also making an adjustment to their rotation. Mike Fiers had been scheduled to start Monday in Minnesota, but he’ll go to the bullpen in favor of Brad Peacock, tweets Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle. The role reversal will stick if Peacock pitches well, manager A.J. Hinch indicated. Fiers has been a rare weak link for the formidable Astros this year, having recorded a 5.21 ERA (with a ghastly 7.56 FIP) in nine starts and 46 2/3 innings. Peacock, on the other hand, has logged a microscopic ERA (.87) in 13 appearances and 20 2/3 frames. He picked up his first start of the year in a win over Detroit this past Monday, tossing 4 1/3 scoreless, one-hit innings and tallying eight strikeouts. Peacock has been racking up strikeouts throughout the year (13.06 K/9), but control has been an issue (5.23 BB/9).

AL Central Notes: No. 1 Pick, White Sox, Karns, Gose

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The Twins are leaning toward passing on high school right-hander/shortstop Hunter Greene with the top overall pick in the upcoming MLB draft, writes Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Greene has drawn quite a bit of fanfare over the past calendar year, due largely to his ability to reach triple digits with his fastball. However, he’d be the first high school right-hander ever selected with the draft’s top pick, and there’s a clear level of risk when selecting any prep arm near the top of the draft. Rather, the Twins are leaning toward Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright, Heyman hears, with Louisville left-hander/first baseman Brendan McKay and prep shortstop Royce Lewis also under consideration. Baseball America’s John Manuel had the Twins selecting Wright in last week’s mock draft, while MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo had Greene tabbed as the Twins’ selection in his own mock draft from that same day.

A few more notes from the division…

  • Despite a perhaps surprisingly solid start to the year from the White Sox, general manager Rick Hahn is maintaining a long-term outlook as the summer trade season approaches, writes MLB.com’s Barry M. Bloom. “We remain very open-minded about whatever opportunities present themselves to make us better for the long run,” said Hahn. “Our focus is on something that is more sustainable than this one season. We’re in the same mode we were in this past offseason, looking for some long-term pieces to put us in position to contend on an annual basis.” David Robertson, Todd Frazier and Jose Quintana are among the top names the Sox could make available, Bloom observes, though the latter two from that trio haven’t exactly gotten off to strong starts in 2017.
  • The Royals announced yesterday that right-hander Nate Karns has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to an “extensor strain” (per the club’s transactions page at MLB.com). For the time being, his spot in the rotation will go to rookie Miguel Almonte, who was slated to start today’s series finale at Yankee Stadium prior to a rainout, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan. There’s been no timetable provided by the Royals for Karns’ absence, though his injury comes at an especially inopportune time; the right-hander had been excellent across his past four starts, pitching to a 2.01 ERA with an otherworldly 32-to-4 K/BB ratio through 22 1/3 innings. It’s not yet clear if today’s postponement will deprive Almonte of the opportunity to make a start, though Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star tweets that the starts in this weekend’s series will go to Ian Kennedy, Jason Vargas and Danny Duffy.
  • Anthony Gose, who has converted from playing center field to pitching, made his pro debut on the mound for Class-A Lakeland yesterday, writes Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. Tigers manager Brad Ausmus tells Fenech that Gose’s fastball sat at 97 mph, and the left-hander also touched 98 mph twice and 99 mph three times. Gose was a two-way prospect in the draft back in 2008, so pitching isn’t exactly new to him, though he obviously hasn’t focused on it in his nearly nine seasons of professional ball. Ausmus noted that due to Gose’s age, he may not be progressed through the minors like a typical (i.e. younger) prospect would be. The implication there, seemingly, is that Gose may not need to stop at every level before the club decides to take a look at him in the Majors. That, however, could be a long shot to happen in 2017. GM Al Avila appeared on the Jamie and Stoney Show on 97.1 The Ticket in Detroit this week and said that he wouldn’t put a firm “no” on Gose pitching in the Majors this season, though he also didn’t characterize that outcome as likely (via Will Burchfield of CBS Detroit).

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