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Kyle Schwarber

Payroll Notes: Diamondbacks, Cubs, Mariners

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Zack Greinke is off the books. Ill-fated Cuban signee Yasmany Tomas will be off the books after next season. The Diamondbacks avoided doubling-down with pricey extensions for former core performers Paul Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin, and A.J. Pollock. Arizona GM Mike Hazen sloughed the necessary financial weight to put the Dbacks in the unfamiliar position of having some money to spend, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Per Roster Resource, their 2020 payroll sits at about $109MM, only about $14MM shy of their 2019 opening day figure, but they have significant financial freedom beyond next season, when the only remaining salary obligations belong to underpaid cornerstones Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar. Keep an eye out for MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook Series for a further investigation into the Diamondbacks options moving forward. For now, let’s check in elsewhere around the league…

  • The Cubs have a less flexible financial situation at present, and how they maneuver this offseason remains one of the most intriguing questions of the winter. They’re the best team in the NL Central as presently constituted, per Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards, though it surely doesn’t feel like it to Cubs fans after their September collapse. Rumors of significant change continue to swirl, but it’s hard to argue how moving one of their stars like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, or Javier Baez will improve the team in the short-term, and it’s hard to justify willfully closing the window on the team that won the 2016 championship. And yet, last season’s decline was so thorough the Cubs have to wonder if a managerial change alone is enough to shock The Cubs Way back to life. Moving Kyle Schwarber also isn’t the answer, per NBC Sports Chicago’s Tony Andracki, who makes the case that Schwarber, 27 in March, is entering his prime after finally showing signs of reaching his considerable offensive ceiling in the second half last year. Recent rumblings peg Willson Contreras as the potential moving piece, but trading a potent firecracker like Contreras is a risk. Theo Epstein’s accolades as a cursebreaker are unparalleled, but turning this club back into a true-blue contender might be his biggest career challenge to date.
  • The Mariners should act now to open their competitive window in 2021 by making a run at Gerrit Cole, per The Athletic’s Corey Brock. It makes sense on paper, as Cole makes any rotation look a whole heck of a lot better, though it’s certainly hard to imagine. If the Mariners really do want to contend with the Astros and A’s as early as 2021, a rotation led by Cole, Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi looks a lot better than a rotation fronted by Gonzalez and Kikuchi alone. The Mariners do have money to spend as well, with just $44MM on the books for 2021, and if Cole is the best free agent pitcher available over, say, the next three offseasons, then it would make sense to make a run at him now. That said, all signs point to a more modest approach from Seattle this winter.

Is Kyle Schwarber Better Than This?

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It’s well known that Cubs brass has long revered Kyle Schwarber, the fourth overall pick in 2014 whom the team refused to part with in trades during ensuing seasons. The big-bodied Schwarber was a catcher in his younger days, though there was much skepticism the ex-Indiana Hoosier would carve out a future in the majors behind the plate. Indeed, despite having slimmed down in recent years, Schwarber hasn’t donned the tools of ignorance at all since 2017.

With no DH spot available in the National League and Anthony Rizzo holding down first base, Schwarber has settled in as the Cubs’ left fielder. Reviews have been mixed on Schwarber, who has simultaneously accounted for minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-14.6 Ultimate Zone Rating through upward of 2,700 innings in left. The fact that Schwarber hasn’t been unplayable in the outfield is a clear positive, but his left-handed bat will always be his carrying tool. However, despite the hype that has surrounded Schwarber in his career, he hasn’t emerged as a great major league hitter yet.

Schwarber was a tremendous college and minor league offensive performer who immediately made his mark in Chicago as a rookie in 2015, when he slashed .246/.355/.487 (131 wRC+) with 16 home runs across 273 plate appearances. In light of his stellar introduction, expectations were Schwarber would further cement himself as a linchpin of the Cubs’ lineup in 2016. Instead, though, he suffered a torn left ACL and LCL in April of that year and wound up missing all but two regular-season games. To his immense credit, Schwarber became something of a Chicago folk hero in rehabbing quickly enough to return for the World Series that autumn. Schwarber put the exclamation point on his Fall Classic comeback by slashing a fantastic .412/.500/.471 in 20 PA against the Indians to help the Cubs win their first title in 108 years.

The good times were supposed to keep rolling for Schwarber, but his output has been underwhelming since his triumphant return. Dating back to 2017, Schwarber has batted .226/.333/.466 with 74 homers, a 107 wRC+ and 5.6 fWAR over 1,340 trips to the plate. The 26-year-old has essentially been a league-average hitter (101 wRC+) through 344 PA this season, making him an unspectacular part of a team whose weeks-long slump has led to frustration from its higher-ups.

Here’s some much-needed positive news for the Cubs, though: Better days may be ahead for Schwarber. His hard-hit percentage ranks second among all qualified hitters who have totaled at least 100 batted ball-events this year, per Statcast, while his average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls checks in at 13th. Among batters who have accumulated at least 300 PA in 2019, FanGraphs credits Schwarber with the game’s seventh-lowest soft-contact percentage (10.8). Adding to the encouragement, Schwarber has increased his flies/liners while decreasing his grounders compared to 2018. He’s also making more contact while swinging and missing less than he did a year ago. All of that has helped Schwarber maintain his prodigious power despite so-so overall results this year, as he has chipped in 18 HRs with a .234 ISO.

With the above considered, it’s no surprise Schwarber’s expected weighted on-base average (.358) far outdoes his real wOBA (.331). However, just because Schwarber’s hitting the ball hard doesn’t automatically mean his production will positively regress. It doesn’t appear the strikeout-prone Schwarber is a sure bet to ever complement his power with a high batting average or a lofty BABIP (the latter’s at .269 this year, right in line with his career mark), so he has to compensate by drawing walks. Schwarber collected free passes a personal-best 15.3 percent of the time in 2018, assisting in a career-high .356 OBP and helping cancel out a .238 average. But his walk percentage has dropped to 12.5 – not far from his lifetime figure – this year. That’s still easily above average, but the 3 percent fall has limited Schwarber to a .326 OBP that’s barely better than the .322 MLB mean.

Average offensive numbers aren’t going to suffice for Schwarber, who Baseball America wrote in 2015 had a chance to become a “.300-hitting, 30-homer” force in the majors. While Schwarber’s power potential has indeed transferred to the bigs since then, the Cubs continue waiting for the rest of the offensive package to arrive.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
  • The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
  • The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
  • The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
  • The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.

Earlier Updates

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NL News & Rumors: Cubs, Schwarber, Mets, Giants, Bucs, Braves

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The Cubs, who have always been bullish on Kyle Schwarber, continue to spurn inquiries for the slugger, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. Still only 25 years old, Schwarber just turned in a 3.2-fWAR season in which he batted .238/.356/.467 (115 wRC+) with 26 home runs in 510 plate appearances and unexpectedly received positive marks in left field (two DRS, 9.8 UZR). Schwarber will play his first of three potential arbitation seasons in 2019, when he’s projected to earn just $3.1MM.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • Unsurprisingly, the Mets aren’t willing to part with both Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo in a trade for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports. Moreover, the Mets don’t want to trade young infielder Amed Rosario at all, Heyman adds. As great as Realmuto is, it wouldn’t make sense for the Mets to trade Conforto and Nimmo – their most valuable outfielders – for two years of control over him. Conforto still has another three years of control left, while Nimmo has four more – including a pre-arb season in 2019.
  • The Giants hired Farhan Zaidi as their president of baseball operations a month ago, but Pirates general manager Neal Huntington was among the candidates they spoke with before then, according to Heyman. It’s unclear how serious the Giants’ interest in Huntington was, but it is known that he’s under contract in Pittsburgh through 2021. Next season will be Huntington’s 12th as the Pirates’ GM.
  • More on the Mets, who – along with the previously reported Chili Davis – have added Chuck Hernandez and Luis Rojas to their coaching staff, Heyman tweets and the the team has since made official. Hernandez will be their bullpen coach, while Rojas will serve as a quality control coach. Hernandez worked as the division-rival Braves’ pitching coach from 2017-18. They dismissed him after last season.
  • Speaking of the Braves, they’ve hired Gary Rajsich to work in professional and amateur scouting, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Rajsich had been the Orioles’ scouting director since 2011, bu they booted him from their front office last month.

Injury Updates: Morrow, Cubs, Chapman, McFarland, Liberatore

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The Cubs got some good news on Brandon Morrow today, as the closer felt good after throwing a 19-pitch simulated game.  (The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan were among those who reported the news.)  Morrow hasn’t pitched since July 15 due to biceps inflammation, and as recently as 10 days ago, manager Joe Maddon expressed some doubt that Morrow would be able to pitch again this season.  In the wake of today’s simulated outing, Morrow could potentially be activated from the DL in time for at least part of the Cubs’ series against the Diamondbacks, which begins on Monday.  Morrow won’t be used as a closer right away, Maddon said, as the team will ease the righty back into action by keeping him on pitch counts and avoiding using him in back-to-back games.  Even in this limited capacity, Morrow’s impending return is nice boost for the Cubs’ postseason chances, as the veteran had a sterling 1.47 ERA, 9.1 K/9, and 3.44 K/BB rate over his first 30 2/3 innings in a Chicago uniform.

Here are some more injury updates from around baseball…

  • In other Cubs injury news, Maddon told Sahadev Sharma (Twitter link) and other reporters that Jason Heyward could return from the DL as early as today after missing two weeks with a hamstring injury.  Kyle Schwarber hasn’t played since September 10 due to a bad back, though the slugger could be available to pinch-hit today.
  • Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman felt good after a bullpen session today, and he’ll throw a simulated game on Monday or Tuesday, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch tweets.  If all goes well, Chapman is on pace to be activated from the disabled list sometime this week.  Chapman hit the DL due to knee inflammation on August 22, and there was even some concern that the problem could sideline the closer for the rest of the regular season.  Now, however, it looks as if Chapman will be back on the field and get some time to work off the rust before the postseason.
  • Diamondbacks southpaw T.J. McFarland hasn’t pitched since September 8 due to elbow soreness, though the problem appears to be only a bone spur rather than a more serious UCL issue, FOX Sports Arizona’s Jody Jackson reports (via Twitter).  McFarland is back to playing catch with the hopes of a return to the mound.  The left-hander has been a force for the D’Backs this season, posting a 2.00 ERA and a 67.9% grounder rate over 72 relief innings.
  • Free agent reliever Adam Liberatore will require 6-8 weeks of recovery time after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his left knee, J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group reports (Twitter link).  The procedure isn’t expected to have any impact on Liberatore’s readiness for the 2019 season, though it will obviously slow his chances of immediately catching on with a new team.  The left-hander was limited by knee problems this season and a forearm strain in 2017, and thus he has thrown just 16 1/3 Major League innings total in 2017-18.  When healthy, Liberatore has looked like a solid relief option, posting a 3.55 ERA, 9.4 K/9, and 2.58 K/BB rate over 88 2/3 career frames for the Dodgers, who released Liberatore last week.

Injury Notes: Zobrist, Despaigne, Ohtani

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Ben Zobrist says he’s headed to the DL to tend to a minor back injury, via Jesse Rogers of ESPN. There doesn’t seem to be any serious concern, but Zobrist has missed the past few games due to the injury, so the Cubs appear to be proceeding with caution. They’ll be able to make the move retroactive by a few days, so it seems unlikely he’ll be out for very long. The versatile Zobrist is in the third year of a four-year, $56MM contract with Chicago. He’s certainly off to an impressive start; in 49 plate appearances so far this season, the veteran has hit .326/.408/.465 with more walks (six) than strikeouts (5). For the time being, players like Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora Jr. and Ian Happ will likely continue to get an extra game here and there to plug the gaps created by Zobrist’s absence

A pair of additional injury notes elsewhere in MLB…

  • The Marlins officially placed 31-year-old righty Odrisamer Despaigne on the DL last night (along with fellow reliever Chris O’Grady), as we noted in our daily roster roundup. The reason was a strained forearm, which is always a concerning injury when it comes to pitchers. According to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, Despaigne had the following to say about his injury: “I first felt it tight when I was warming up in the bullpen. I tried to keep going with it. When the game started, it’s when I started to feel the pain.” For the Marlins, it’s yet another development that thins out an already-shaky pitching staff.
  • Two-way Angels phenom Shohei Ohtani appears to be making progress in regards to his blister issues. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets that Ohtani feels his blister is “recovering”, and that he’s on schedule to make a start on Tuesday in Houston. Fletcher also notes that Ohtani worked with pitching coach Charlie Nagy in a bullpen session, and came away with some things he can use (presumably to prevent a re-aggravation of the injury).

Cubs Notes: Epstein, Davis, Bullpen, Schwarber, Arrieta, Ohtani, Stanton

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Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein met with reporters (including The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma) on Monday to discuss a number of hot stove-related subjects.  The highlights…

  • Epstein alluded to the team’s agreement with Brandon Morrow without officially making a confirmation, saying the Cubs were “pretty close” to the signing.  The pitcher in question was described as someone the Cubs would be “comfortable” using as a closer, though “he’s the type of team player that would be willing to take any role depending on what the rest of the team looks like.”
  • In that vein, the Cubs could acquire a more established closer, and a reunion with Wade Davis is still a possibility.  Epstein said he planned to meet with Davis’ agent either during the Winter Meetings or just after.  Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweeted earlier today that the Cubs were open to bringing Davis back if an “affordable” deal could be worked out.  MLBTR predicted Davis for a four-year, $60MM free agent contract this winter, which might fall outside of the Cubs’ comfort zone if they can land a less-pricey arm to further reinforce their bullpen.
  • Sharma reports that free agents Bryan Shaw, Anthony Swarzak, and Jake McGee are also on the Cubs’ radar as they continue their wide-ranging search for bullpen help.
  • Epstein downplayed any Kyle Schwarber trade rumors, saying that “he’s always been someone that teams have had an interest in, I guess.  But we have probably the most interest.”  Reports from earlier this week identified the Red Sox as a team interested in the young slugger.
  • The Cubs will stay in touch with Scott Boras about Jake Arrieta in case there’s any path to the free agent righty returning to Wrigley Field.  It has been widely assumed that Arrieta would be signing elsewhere this winter, as the Cubs have already signed Tyler Chatwood to join Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, and Jose Quintana in the rotation, and have been heavily linked to Alex Cobb.  Still, given the number of other teams pursuing Cobb, it makes sense that Chicago would remain open to Arrieta, even if his price tag would be significantly higher.
  • Of course, the Cubs almost made another big rotation splash as they were one of the seven finalists for Shohei Ohtani’s services.  Epstein was proud of his team’s presentation to Ohtani and came away impressed by how the Japanese star handled himself in meetings with Cubs officials.  Even getting into the final seven was an accomplishment in Epstein’s eyes, as the Cubs were neither a West Coast team or an AL team that could offer Ohtani DH at-bats.
  • Chicago was also one of the four teams Giancarlo Stanton would’ve waived his no-trade clause to join, though it doesn’t seem talks got very far between the Cubs and Marlins before Stanton was dealt to the Yankees.  “There wasn’t much interaction given the makeup of our roster, our future payroll commitments and some plans that we have,” Epstein said.  “Great player and great opportunity, but not necessarily the right one for us at the time.”

East Notes & Rumors: Marlins, Red Sox, Schwarber, Stanton

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An early morning look at the majors’ East divisions:

  • There’s no desperation on the Marlins’ part to trade second baseman Starlin Castro, whom they’ll acquire from the Yankees when the teams’ Giancarlo Stanton trade becomes official, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. With a reasonable $22MM left on Castro’s contract over the next two years, the Marlins believe they’re in position to “wait for the right offer,” per Nightengale. Meanwhile, the Fish are entertaining offers for outfielder Marcell Ozuna, whom the Cardinals “badly desire,” Nightengale notes. Ozuna will make a projected $10.9MM in his penultimate arbitration-eligible season in 2018, and he’s coming off a career year, so moving him would help the Marlins further slash their payroll and improve their weak farm system in one fell swoop.
  • The power-needy Red Sox have interest in Cubs left fielder Kyle Schwarber, according to Scott Lauber of ESPN.com, though he casts doubt on the idea of Chicago moving the 24-year-old. The Cubs’ front office has long been bullish on Schwarber, who’s coming off a disappointing season (granted, he did hit 30 home runs) but still under control for five more years. In the seemingly unlikely event the Cubs deal Schwarber to Boston, he’d be a candidate to slot in at first base/designated hitter.
  • Keith Law of ESPN (subscription required and recommended) regards the Stanton trade as a “no-brainer” move for the Yankees, arguing that he won’t have to replicate the MVP form he showed off in 2017 to justify the 10-year, $265MM commitment for New York. Law also doesn’t close the door on the Yankees adding Bryce Harper in free agency next year, as he’s of the belief that the former center fielder could still be an option there in the short term. While the Yankees may have cleaned up in the swap, Law regards it as an opportunity lost for Miami because, in addition to Castro, it’ll only get a pair of “fringe prospects” in return for an elite player. Law goes on to assess the prospects, right-hander Jorge Guzman and infielder Jose Devers, in depth.

Cubs To Recall Kyle Schwarber, Place John Lackey On DL

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7:55am: Rogers now tweets that the Cubs will place John Lackey on the 10-day DL due to plantar faciitis, though it’s possible that due to the off-time afforded by the All-Star break, Lackey won’t even miss a start. Lackey started yesterday’s game for the Cubs and wasn’t in line to make another appearance in the first half anyhow.

7:36am: The Cubs will recall Kyle Schwarber from Triple-A Iowa today after a brief demotion to the minors, reports ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers. He’s expected to be available for today’s game against Milwaukee.

The 24-year-old Schwarber got off to a dreadful start in 2017, hitting just .171/.295/.378 through his first 261 plate appearances. While Schwarber did belt 12 homers in that time, he also struck out in nearly 29 percent of his plate appearances and hit 10 infield flies to go along with a lowly 12.3 percent line-drive rate.

Schwarber’s demotion was never expected to be especially lengthy in nature, however, and he’s clobbered Triple-A pitching in 11 games following the quick mental respite. In 44 plate appearances, the former No. 4 overall draft pick hit .343/.477/.714 with four homers and a double. He did strike out 12 times (27 percent), but he also drew eight walks.

Jon Jay has seen the bulk of the playing time in left field since Schwarber was sent down and has hit well (.268/.318/.463 in 44 PAs), but Schwarber figures to reclaim the majority of playing time in left upon his return. The corresponding move for Schwarber’s return isn’t yet known, but there are no obvious demotion candidates on the position-player side of the equation, and the Cubs are currently deploying an eight-man bullpen.

Cubs Option Kyle Schwarber, Place Jason Heyward On DL

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11:03am: Chicago will also place outfielder Jason Heyward on the DL with a left hand injury, Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago tweets. Outfielder Mark Zagunis and righty Dylan Floro are expected to take the open roster spots.

Zagunis, 24, has followed up on a strong 2016 campaign with a .249/.399/.474 slash through 268 plate appearances at Triple-A this year. He has drawn 48 walks against sixty strikeouts thus far. As for Floro, he’ll look to improve upon his first 6 1/3 innings with the Cubs, over which he allowed six earned runs on 13 hits.

10:59am: In a surprising move, the Cubs have decided to option young outfielder/catcher Kyle Schwarber to Triple-A, according to David Kaplan of CSN Chicago (via Twitter). The expectation is that it won’t be a lengthy assignment, but it’s still a notable decision for the defending World Series champs.

Schwarber, 24, turned in an outstanding rookie campaign in 2015 and seemed primed for more last season. Instead, he lost almost the entire regular season after a devastating knee injury. But he came back in near-miraculous fashion to join the team for the Series — turning in a .412/.500/.471 batting line in twenty trips to the plate.

Things have not gone as hoped early in 2017, however. Schwarber, who has spent the vast bulk of his time in left field, currently owns a .171/.295/.378 batting line in 261 plate appearances. Though he has cracked a dozen home runs, and is carrying strikeout and walk numbers that are virtually identical to his prior marks, Schwarber has managed only a .193 batting average on balls in play. More soft contact at the expense of hard contact likely has played a role, as has a growing flyball rate (including quite a few more infield pops), though it seems reasonable to believe there’s also some misfortune baked into the results.

The move seems designed to give Schwarber a chance to get his bat on track at Triple-A — a level he barely stopped at on his way to the majors. In his stead, the Cubs still have plenty of options. Ben Zobrist seems likely to return from the DL soon, joining Ian Happ as an option in left. Both players can also line up at second base, of course, where the Cubs can also play Javier Baez and Tommy La Stella.

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