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Kyle Schwarber

Open Market Notes: Kluber, Twins/Cruz, Nats, Odorizzi

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Add the Pirates to the clubs planning to attend for Corey Kluber’s January 13th workout, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic (via Twitter). The Nationals and Diamondbacks were previously mentioned as two among many planning to view Kluber in Florida. The Pirates don’t seem like the likeliest team to sign Kluber, though he could conceivably provide some veteran stability with the upside of becoming a mid-season trade chip. It’ll be interesting to see how Kluber shows after two mostly lost seasons. Before he ran into health troubles, the 34-year-old reeled off an exceptional five-season run.

Here are a few other items of open-market chatter …

  • Though there’s no evidence of recent progress, there’s still cause to remain bullish on the odds of a reunion between the Twins and slugger Nelson Cruz. The match, after all, has worked out well for both sides to date. In an appearance on the Locked On Twins podcast, Darren Wolfson of KSTP 5 indicated that mutual interest remains strong. But the club and the 40-year-old DH could also be eyeing alternatives. Wolfson suggests the Padres would have interest in Cruz if it turns out that the DH will remain in the National League. Remaining uncertainty in that regard has iced the market for lumbering sluggers. Depending upon how things shake out, per Wolfson, the Twins may have interest in a slate of options that includes Michael Brantley, Kyle Schwarber, and even Marcell Ozuna.
  • Several of those players would also be of interest to the Nationals, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It seems that Ozuna is likely to require too much space on the balance sheet. But Brantley and Schwarber, along with Joc Pederson, are each seen as possibilities to take up a post in the D.C. corner outfield. The Nats have an opening after allowing Adam Eaton to depart.
  • Free agent righty Jake Odorizzi appears to be in position to land a three-year deal, an executive tells Rosenthal. The expectation from that industry source is that the veteran starter could secure a guarantee in the realm of $36MM to $42MM — just where MLBTR predicted he’d land. There’s still no clarity as to Odorizzi’s slate of suitors, but it stands to reason he’ll have fairly widespread appeal given that Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman each accepted qualifying offers, removing two primary targets from the market.

Latest On Nationals’ Free Agent Targets

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The Nationals have some holes to fill in their lineup, and Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports that the club has interest in the recently non-tendered Kyle Schwarber.  However, in contrast to earlier reports, the Nats aren’t pursuing an even bigger name in infielder DJ LeMahieu, according to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe.

Given the uncertainty over how much the Nats are willing to commit towards payroll in 2021, this news could be further indication that D.C.’s spending may be somewhat limited this offseason.  LeMahieu will command a hefty multi-year deal, while Schwarber could potentially be available on just a one-year contract.  Teams such as the Twins, Angels, Yankees, and Blue Jays have also been linked to Schwarber, but it remains to be seen how this fairly substantial amount of interest will translate into new deal for the former fourth overall pick.

Schwarber hit only .188/.308/.393 over 224 plate appearances in 2020, a far cry from his .245/.347/.503 slash line over 1120 PA in 2018-19.  Though he was still making plenty of hard contact, he had some bad luck on that contact in the form of a .219 BABIP, and he was also making less contact in general with a 29.5% strikeout rate (his highest in three seasons.

Between that dropoff at the plate and a below-average (-2.5 UZR/150, -3 Defensive Runs Saved) performance in left field, Schwarber was only worth 0.4 fWAR in 2020.  Schwarber earned $7MM last season and was projected to earn a healthy raise in arbitration, leading the Cubs to just part ways with Schwarber entirely at the non-tender deadline as Chicago looked to cut back on payroll.

Assuming a return to his pre-2020 form, Schwarber would add some much needed left-handed hitting pop to the Nats’ lineup.  He could be slotted into left field (with Juan Soto moving to right) if the National League doesn’t have a DH spot available in 2021, though Dougherty notes that such a move wouldn’t help the Washington improve its defensive issues in the outfield.  This is just my speculation, but it’s at least possible the Nationals could explore using Schwarber as a first baseman, as Washington also has a need at that position and Schwarber has worked out as a first baseman before, though he played first base only once in the majors and in two minor league games.

Naturally, LeMahieu would have been a bigger upgrade from both a hitting perspective and a defensive perspective, as he has posted MVP-caliber numbers over the last two years with the Yankees and could be utilized at first, second, or third base.  The Yankees and Blue Jays have been the teams most closely linked to LeMahieu’s market thus far, though the Astros and Mets also rumored to have at least some interest.

Latest On Twins, Nelson Cruz

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The recent memo instructing MLB teams to prepare under the assumption that there won’t be a DH in the NL next season has not expedited talks between the Twins and Nelson Cruz, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic. As the two sides continue their staredown of sorts, the Twins have also “checked in” on alternate options like Michael Brantley, Kyle Schwarber and Adam Duvall, per Hayes.

It’s worth noting that, per ESPN’s Buster Olney, despite that memo from MLB, most people around the game still expect MLB and the MLBPA to eventually work out a deal to add a universal DH next year. The league and union weren’t exactly expeditious in their last several waves of negotiations, taking months to hammer out return-to-play conditions and then agreeing to expanded playoffs mere hours before the season’s first pitch was thrown.

Cruz is reportedly seeking a two-year deal and waiting resolution on the universal DH before determining where he’ll sign for the upcoming season(s). The Twins have good reason to want him back after an outstanding .308/.394/.626 output with 57 home runs in 735 plate appearances between the 2019-20 seasons. However, if Cruz’s market is limited to American League clubs, they’d have added leverage in trying to bring him back on a one-year deal — perhaps with a club option, as was the case with his last contract. Any deal for Cruz figures to come with a raise over the $13MM annual rate at which he played out his two years with the Twins.

With regard to the other names on which the Twins have inquired, Brantley is the most accomplished hitter of the bunch and has a connection with Twins president of baseball ops Derek Falvey, who was an assistant GM in Cleveland prior to being hired by Minnesota. It’d be a bit of a surprise to see the Twins bring either Schwarber or Duvall aboard, as they were non-tendered on the same day that Minnesota cut Eddie Rosario loose.

That said, the Twins seemingly intend to give top prospect Alex Kirilloff a legitimate crack at an everyday job in 2021. Either Schwarber or Duvall could give some DH cover and provide an experienced left field alternative — perhaps at a lesser rate than Rosario would’ve commanded — should Kirilloff struggle. In-house alternatives include Jake Cave and Brent Rooker.

Blue Jays Notes: Kim, Ryu, Schwarber, Fiers

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Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim appears to be one of many possible Blue Jays targets this offseason, and another Jays star might have done a bit of recruiting, as Daniel Kim of South Korea’s KBS reports (Twitter links) that Kim and Toronto ace Hyun Jin Ryu recently had dinner.  Ryu didn’t get into details of the meeting but said in an interview with KBS that he would be “happy to play on a same team with Kim.”  Kim requested the meeting himself, and while it’s probably safe to assume playing for the Jays came up at some point, it’s only natural that Kim would want to speak with a veteran player who has already made the move from the KBO to the majors.

Asked about the meeting, Jays assistant GM Joe Sheehan declined to discuss specifics but told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi (Twitter link) that Ryu “being a big player in the KBO’s history is really good.”  The Jays are known to be exploring the infield market and Sheehan gave a favorable review of Kim’s KBO track record when asked by Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (Twitter link).

More from north of the border…

  • The Jays, Angels, and Yankees all have interest in former Cubs slugger Kyle Schwarber, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reports.  Schwarber was non-tendered by the Cubs last week following a season that saw him hit only .188/.308/.393 with 11 home runs over 224 PA.  Since Schwarber is a defensively-shaky left fielder, he would seem like a curious fit for all three teams, who already have the left field and DH positions accounted for, barring a trade to open up space.  Looking at Toronto specifically, there could be room for Schwarber if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ends up spending more time at third base, though it still seems like something of an imperfect match.
  • The Blue Jays also have interest in right-hander Mike Fiers, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter).  Fiers posted a 4.58 ERA, 2.31 K/BB rate, and 5.64 K/9 over 59 innings with the Athletics last season.  The 35-year-old has been a durable back-of-the-rotation type for much of his career, and would perhaps bring more stability (if not necessarily upside) to a Jays rotation mix that has Ryu in front of Robbie Ray, Ross Stripling, Tanner Roark, and a wealth of younger arms headlined by Nate Pearson.

Cubs Non-Tender Schwarber, Almora, Tepera

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7:14pm: The Cubs announced that Schwarber, Almora, right-hander Ryan Tepera and first baseman/outfielder Jose Martinez have all been non-tendered.

6:46pm: The Cubs have informed outfielder Kyle Schwarber that he won’t be tendered a contract for the upcoming season, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports (via Twitter). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported prior that “barring a change of plans,” the Cubs were intent on non-tendering both Schwarber and center fielder Albert Almora Jr. The Cubs do plan on tendering a contract to third baseman Kris Bryant, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman indicated earlier in the week. Both Schwarber and Almora will become free agents once their non-tenders are made official.

Schwarber, 27, is coming off a rough season in which he put together just a .188/.308/.393 batting line in 224 plate appearances. The former No. 4 overall draft pick walked at a characteristically strong 13.4 percent clip this past season, but his 29.5 percent strikeout rate was the highest mark he’s posted since 2017. At his best, Schwarber is an above-average power bat with passable left-field defense, but he’s also had plenty of defensive struggles throughout his career.

Schwarber earned $7MM in 2020 and was due a raise on that sum. As we saw with the Twins and Eddie Rosario, who cleared waivers today, that’s not a price point at which teams appear anxious to pay above-average hitters with some notable flaws (on-base percentage in Rosario’s case; defense and strikeouts for Schwarber).

The decision to jettison Almora is far less surprising. Though he was once rated as a high-end prospect and potential everyday center fielder, the 26-year-old hasn’t provided value at the plate over the past three seasons, batting a combined .261/.299/.373 (77 wRC+). He’s a talented defender with passable career numbers against left-handed pitching, however, so he could latch on as a fourth outfielder with another club.

Tendering a contract to Bryant, meanwhile, puts the Cubs in line to pay him a raise on this year’s $18.6MM salary. For a Cubs team looking to reduce payroll, he’s still a likely trade candidate, although finding a deal could be tricky. Bryant battled injuries and hit just .206/.293/.351 in 34 games this past season, which would give potential trade partners cause for concern (as would his salary). The ceiling here, of course, is an MVP-caliber player on a reasonable one-year deal, but teams aren’t going to value him as such in light of recent struggles. Convincing a trade partner to not only absorb Bryant’s salary but also to surrender some young talent of note could prove difficult for newly minted president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer.

Theo Epstein On The Value Of One-Year Deals

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Theo Epstein has been prepping the Chicago fanbase for the eventual breakup of their 2016 team for a couple of seasons now. The blockbuster hasn’t come, and most of the faces of that championship team remain. After a disappointing exit from the wild card round – they managed just one run over a two-game sweep at the hands of the Marlins – Epstein’s comments again suggest changes are coming for the Cubbies.

Nine players remain on the roster from their World Series winner, and while that may not seem like a lot, it does constitute roughly 35% of a 26-man roster. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Albert Almora, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and Kyle Schwarber represent the longest-tenured group of Chicago players. Technically, manager David Ross can count as a 10th member of their title team still hanging around the clubhouse. Ian Happ and Victor Caratini didn’t debut until 2017. Jose Quintana joined the team at the 2017 deadline. Yu Darvish signed as a free agent prior to the 2018 season.

The pillars of this Cubs’ run will dwindle further in the coming years. Architect Theo Epstein is likely to depart after next season. Lester is a free agent this winter. Almora seems to be out of chances and in need of a change of scenery. Odds favor Heyward or Hendricks to be the “last man standing” as they both have contracts that should keep them in Wrigley through 2023. Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Schwarber are each entering the final year of their contracts – assuming the Cubs pick up Rizzo’s $16.5MM option.

Epstein spoke about the latter group, providing typically candid analysis of not only the Cubs foursome, but more broadly about the value of one-year contracts. Per the Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, Epstein said:

I think there are going to be certain fundamentals that are true of this winter and of this market that have been true for decades. One of those is especially relevant in our situation, a one-year deal for a really talented player is a valuable thing. That’s to our benefit both to what we can do in constructing the 2021 team and having an additional year of control on certain players and also potentially to our benefit in the trade market as we look to make some changes. I think that’s a fundamental.”

Essentially, it sounds as if Epstein’s offering a ’fear not’ for those who think the Cubs have waited too long to return anything of value for the final year of Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, and/or Schwarber. To Epstein’s point, players on one-year deals are often devalued in the public square, but there’s a lot that can be extracted from a full year. Further, the flexibility a one-year deal affords shouldn’t be discounted – perhaps especially in our current climate. The fear of losing talent to free agency is understandable, but the more difficult gaff to overcome is the presence of “the albatross,” a highly-paid player on a long-term deal who no longer contributes on the diamond. Baez’s confounding 2020 is a testament to the swings that even talented players can experience year-over-year.

The trouble for Epstein is that Chicago’s current roster is flush with semi-expensive players on short-term deals who are coming off disappointing seasons. But to Epstein’s point – those players are still valuable. Whether the Cubs keep them or trade them, there’s always an opportunity cost. Said Epstein, per Sahadev:

There’s always a trade-off of being transactional and taking some of those players away from the current group and solidifying the future. There are trade-offs and balances that you have to be mindful of. The math simply changes as you get to a point where a lot of your best players only have one year left. It becomes less appealing to continue to invest opportunity cost in simply the present.”

Epstein has hit on a similar refrain in each of the last couple of years, and some changes have been made. They hired David Ross as the manager, they refrained from big-money free agent deals since signing Darvish (with the exception of Craig Kimbrel, who has only one more guaranteed season left on his deal), and they poured considerable energy into exploring trade options and/or extensions for their stars – but they haven’t made any of those deals.

Therein lies the rub for Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer. After years of exploring their options and walking the difficult path to try and sustain contention, they’re running out of time to pull off one of those – in Epstein’s words – “impactful, significant moves.” Whether or not they’re able to consummate that brand of deal this winter may depend on whether the 29 other GMs agree with Epstein about the value of talented players one-year deals.

Of course, Mookie Betts represents the most recent superstar player to be dealt on a one-year deal, and Indians’ shortstop Francisco Lindor is among those players who could be available this winter. Both players are probably more valuable in a vacuum than any of the Cubs’ foursome. Still, the Betts deal is instructive in so far as it necessitated the Red Sox’ willingness to take a step back, even though they received a major league regular as part of their return. The Cubs also have the option of packaging a couple players in the same deal, something he’s done in the past to extract additional prospect value..

Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

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3:07pm: The Cubs will pay Javier Baez an even $10MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). That’s $700K north of his projected earning point. The sides are said to be interested in hammering out a longer-term contract, which remains possible after working out a 2020 salary.

3:00pm: Several other key Cubs players also have deals, per ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter links). Catcher Willson Contreras receives a $4.5MM salary, right on the MLBTR projection. Outfielder Kyle Schwarber will play for $7.01MM, south of the $8MM that the model predicted.

In other deals, the Cubs will pay southpaw Kyle Ryan $975K, according to Robert Murray (Twitter links). And outfielder Albert Almora will earn $1.575MM this year.

11:35am: The Cubs have avoided arbitration with third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link). He’ll earn $18.6MM in 2020.

That’s right on the projected valuation produced by the MLBTR/Matt Swartz model, which pegged Bryant at $18.5MM. The model seemed to (and did) match up with the real-world situation, as Matt explained in a detailed look at Bryant’s case. It’s a nice raise on his $12.9MM salary from 2019.

Bryant, who recently turned 28, continues to churn out productive seasons. He was limited somewhat by injuries in 2018 but appeared in 147 contests in the just-completed campaign, slashing .282/.382/.521 and driving 31 balls over the fence.

This settles one of the winter’s open questions involving Bryant and the Cubs — but certainly not the most interesting one. We’re still awaiting the outcome of a service-time grievance brought by the player surrounding the eyebrow-raising timing of his initial promotion to the majors. The resolution of that situation promises to impact ongoing trade talks involving the long-time Chicago star. It seems clear that the organization is interested in exploring scenarios involving Bryant and other top players, though it’s unclear as yet whether he or any other key piece will end up on the move.

Trade Rumblings: Lindor, Padres, Dodgers, Betts, Yanks, Schwarber

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The Padres have at least kicked around the idea of attempting to swing a deal for Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). However, Rosenthal cautions that the superstar probably won’t end up in San Diego, which already has an enviable left side of the infield between shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and third baseman Manny Machado. In the unlikely event the Padres do wind up with Lindor, it seems they’d try to turn Tatis into a multi-position player (primarily a center fielder), though Rosenthal notes doing so could displease the 20-year-old and would likely receive pushback from his representatives. That’s important considering San Diego’s desire to extend the phenom.

On the plus side, in addition to picking up an elite player in Lindor, the Padres would keep him away from the division-rival Dodgers, who have been connected to him this winter. But the Lindor-related talks between LA and Cleveland have only been “preliminary” to this point, per Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription). The Indians, for their part, aren’t necessarily under pressure to trade Lindor right now – he still has two years’ control left and remains the best player on a team that has been a consistent playoff contender in recent seasons. That said, the Indians don’t appear to have much of a chance to extend Lindor, so perhaps they’ll be open to parting with him this winter.

Let’s check in on a couple more of baseball’s highest-profile trade candidates…

  • Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier this week that the Red Sox and Dodgers have had “exploratory trade talks” in regards to Boston outfielder Mookie Betts. The Dodgers have even included shortstop Corey Seager in discussions centering on Lindor and Betts, Nightengale relays. However, even though Betts only has a year of control left (in which he should make almost $30MM via arbitration), and even though the Red Sox are working to get under the $208MM luxury tax, it doesn’t look as if there’s any hurry to part with the former AL MVP. Instead, it seems the Red Sox’s preference is to trade from their starting staff, tweets the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, who hears that they and the Dodgers “had virtually no engagement” in regards to Betts at last week’s Winter Meetings.
  • More from Rosenthal, who writes that the Yankees’ years-long interest in Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber has continued. Nevertheless, there’s no momentum toward a deal as of now, Rosenthal adds. Schwarber has been a favorite of the Cubs’ front office, though trading him could be part of an offseason shakeup for a club that fell apart late in 2019. The 26-year-old slugger still has two seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining, and he’s coming off a pair of above-average campaigns, so he’d likely be difficult for the Yankees or anyone else to acquire.

Cubs Will Not Explore Anthony Rizzo Extension This Offseason

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TODAY: Cubs GM Jed Hoyer discussed the situation with David Kaplan on Sports Talk Live (NBC Sports Chicago’s Tony Andracki has a partial transcript) today, saying that the two sides held “some conceptual talks about what an extension would look like and I think that, candidly, we were pretty far apart in terms of length and so he [Pollack] decided to come out and say that.”  Hoyer also noted these negotiations were in the very early stages, and that “there’s nothing that’s been done that’s going to stop future conversations.”

YESTERDAY: The Cubs have decided against pursuing an extension with first baseman Anthony Rizzo this offseason, agent Marc Pollack tells Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com. Whether future contract talks will take place is an open question.

Rizzo is entering his second-to-last season of team control under his original extension. That deal has worked out swimmingly for the Chicago organization, which is paying Rizzo $14.5MM this season with another option remaining at the same price (with a $2MM buyout as the alternative).

It seems that Rizzo instructed his rep to broach the possibility of another contract that would keep him locked in at first base for many more years to come. That interest was rebuffed.

“Anthony has let his desire to be a Cub for life known to the organization,” says Pollack. “Although we do not know what the future holds, a deal to make that happen will not be addressed now.”

The 30-year-old Rizzo evidently isn’t seen as a desirable target despite another exceptional campaign at the plate. He slashed a robust .293/.405/.520 with 27 home runs in 2019 and has steadily produced big numbers since a breakout 2014 effort.

The Chicago organization is in an interesting position after carrying a big payroll for several seasons and wrapping up a costlier-than-expected Wrigley Field renovation project. While many would argue that further outlay is warranted, the club has again given signals that it will keep a tight hold on the purse this winter.

That said, the Cubs have expressed interest in pursuing some long-term deals. Rogers says that Kyle Schwarber also hasn’t yet been approached. Kris Bryant is all but certainly a non-starter. Whether Willson Contreras could be pursued isn’t known, but the team has discussed him in trade scenarios. It seems infielder Javier Baez is the likeliest candidate to be locked up at some point in the offseason.

Cubs Rumors: Bryant, Castellanos, Schwarber, Almora

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Star third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant filed a grievance against the Cubs in regards to their decision to call him up to the majors for the first time April 17, 2015 – one day after he’d have been able to work toward a full year of service time. Many viewed it (and still do) as a clear act of service-time manipulation on the Cubs’ part. A decision on Bryant’s grievance could come by next month’s winter meetings, though it’s doubtful he’ll win, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times suggests. Regardless, there aren’t any hard feelings between the two sides, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and agent Scott Boras indicate in Wittenmyer’s piece. But are the Cubs primed to extend Bryant, who has two expensive seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining? It doesn’t seem any recent long-term talks have occurred, but “Theo and I are talking all the time, and certainly when he and ownership want to discuss anything along those lines, our ears are open, no doubt,” Boras said. The Cubs’ most recent offer to Bryant came “long before” last year “and for much less” than the $200MM-plus the club was rumored to have put on the table, Wittenmyer writes.

Here’s more on the North Siders…

  • While the Cubs aren’t in danger of losing Bryant yet, they are facing the departure of free-agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos. Although Castellanos starred for the Cubs after they acquired him from the Tigers at the July trade deadline, Chicago’s probably not going to re-sign him, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic observes (subscription link). Not only is Castellanos likely to end up earning more than the Cubs are willing to spend – MLBTR projects he’ll reel in a $58MM guarantee over four years – but their corner outfield mix may be too crowded to bring him back. The team already has Bryant, Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber among its option in left/right.
  • If the Cubs were to retain Castellanos, “they would have to aggressively try to deal Schwarber,” Sharma posits. The Cubs regard them as similar players, according to Sharma, and for good reason. They’re both offensively adept corner outfielders who are arguably defensive question marks. However, the Cubs don’t believe they’d get an appealing enough return for Schwarber to trade him, and they’re reluctant to deal him after the excellent second half he posted in 2019, Sharma hears.
  • More from Sharma, who relays that center fielder Albert Almora’s “a strong possibility” to stay with the Cubs because he lacks trade value. The free-agent market for center fielders is weak, and Almora has three affordable years of arbitration control left. Those factors, not to mention his age (26 in April), could boost his trade value. However, the production Almora recorded in 2019 may offset the positives. He hit .236/.371/.381 with a disastrous minus-0.7 fWAR across 363 plate appearances. Still, Chicago seems unwilling to give up on Almora via trade or non-tender.
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