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Kyle Lohse

Free Agent Faceoff: Anibal Sanchez vs. Kyle Lohse

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MLBTradeRumors is introducing a new series in which two comparable free agents are analyzed side by side. Each post will conclude with a reader vote on the value of the two players.

Starting pitching is always at a premium and this offseason will be no different. Two of the very best starters on the free market are Anibal Sanchez and Kyle Lohse, who ranked fourth and tenth on Tim’s Top 50 Free Agents List, respectively. Both right-handers pitched for playoff teams this season and have shown durability in recent years, but is one more desirable than the other?

Sanchez, 28, pitched to a 3.86 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 this season, including a 3.74 ERA in 12 starts following his trade from the Marlins to the Tigers. He’s thrown at least 190 innings in each of the last three years following major shoulder surgery in 2008. Sanchez is a true four-pitch pitcher (fastball, curveball, slider, changeup) who gets a decent amount of ground balls (45.3% from 2010-2012) and has actually been better against lefties than righties these last three years (.667 vs. .739 OPS).

Lohse, 34, posted a 2.86 ERA in 211 innings this season, including a 6.1 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. He’s thrown at least 180 innings in the last two years and four times in the last six years. Lohse gives up a fair amount of fly balls (41.4% grounders the last three years) despite his lack of strikeouts. He’s primarily a sinker-slider-changuep pitcher who has been hit harder by lefties than righties these last three years (.737 vs. .688 OPS). That said, he’s been better than Sanchez these last two years — 3.11 ERA in 399 1/3 innings vs. 3.77 ERA in 392 innings.

Cardinals Make Kyle Lohse Qualifying Offer

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The Cardinals extended a qualifying offer to Kyle Lohse, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com reports (on Twitter). He now has one week to accept or decline the offer.

If Lohse accepts, he’ll earn $13.3MM on a one-year deal in 2013. If he declines, he’ll be linked to draft pick compensation in free agency — his new team will have to surrender a top selection to sign him. Lohse ranks tenth on MLBTR’s list of top 50 free agents.

Blue Jays Targeting Several Free Agent Pitchers

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The Blue Jays are casting a wide net in their search for pitching, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. They have already shown interest in Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, and Ryan Dempster, among others.

Toronto is also one of several clubs to inquire about Scott Baker, joining the Red Sox, Cubs, and Rangers. The Twins recently declined the right-hander's option but hope to sign him to a new deal. The Blue Jays have made no secret of their goal to add pitching this offseason, either through trades or free agency. Free agents can begin signing with new teams tomorrow morning.

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Lohse, Reds

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All five NL Central teams are in full-on offseason mode now that the Cardinals have been eliminated from the postseason. Here's the latest from what used to be baseball's only six-team division…

  • The Pirates have continued putting their prospects through Navy SEALS-style exercises at all hours, Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports. Outfield prospect Gregory Polanco told Kovacevic that he injured himself in an unconventional drill that included sprints through ice water and leaping into a sand pit. Team president Frank Coonelly stated his support for the Pirates' baseball operations staff in late September, after news of the unconventional training methods surfaced.
  • Kyle Lohse, a free agent this coming offseason, said he'd like to play for a winner, B.J. Rains of FOXSportsMidwest reports. The right-hander hasn't been in contact with the Cardinals about a new deal and is expected to sign elsewhere. "There are certain places I'd like to go and certain places I probably wouldn't," he said.
  • John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer looks at the Reds' 2013 payroll commitments and determines that if GM Walt Jocketty does anything big this offseason, it will likely be with a trade rather than a free agent signing.

Olney On Hamilton, Brewers, Lohse

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The Brewers could pursue Josh Hamilton this offseason if the free agent outfielder doesn’t get any offers for four-plus years and more than $100MM, ESPN.com's Buster Olney writes. Here are more notes from Olney’s column…

  • The Brewers aren’t positioned to give Hamilton a massive contract, but they can offer him a comfortable place to play where he’d be supported. Johnny Narron, his former mentor, works as Milwaukee’s hitting coach, and Brewers bench coach Jerry Narron also knows the 31-year-old. While many outsiders lack detailed information about Hamilton’s off-field issues, the Narron brothers know the outfielder well enough to make a determination about his ability to continue producing.
  • At this point the Brewers intend to pursue multiple starters this offseason.
  • General managers expect free agent starting pitchers to do well this year, since there’s a shortage of viable options at a time that many teams are flush with dollars. The Blue Jays, Royals, Cubs and Angels are among the many teams known to be seeking starting pitching.
  • Some agents and general managers believe free agent starter Kyle Lohse could command a deal in the $60-75MM range, Olney reports.

Lohse Hasn’t Received Offer From Cardinals

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It's been a career season for Kyle Lohse, but despite that fact the right-hander informs Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that he has yet to receive an offer from the Cardinals (audio link). Lohse says he's begun to think about new places to play, and that his wife and two children will factor into his decision. Bowden also tweets that GM John Mozeliak feels it will be difficult to re-sign Lohse because the 34-year-old has emerged as a big-game pitcher.

Lohse fired a career-high 211 innings this season, adding career bests in ERA (2.86) and BB/9 (1.6) as well. His 6.1 K/9 was his best strikeout rate since 2006 with the Twins and Reds.

That the Cardinals have yet to make an offer isn't necessarily a shock. The team is still in the playoffs and likely focused on the NLCS currently. Beyond that, they possess enviable pitching depth with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn and Trevor Rosenthal all presenting rotation options in 2013.

It seems likely that Lohse will receive a qualifying offer — a notion which more than 74 percent of MLBTR readers agreed upon in this September poll. Lohse is finishing a four-year deal that paid him $41MM, and he could seek a similar payday in free agency. He'll join Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster, Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum on the free agent market. Names like Jake Peavy and Dan Haren are reportedly likely to hit the market as well after team options on the right-handers are declined.

Brewers Notes: Starting Rotation, Hart, Weeks

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The Milwaukee Brewers experienced a roller coaster season in 2012 marked by injuries, blown saves, and being 12 games under .500 on August 20 before embarking on a 24-6 run that boosted them back into the Wild Card race until being eliminated on the final weekend of the season. Club officials say everyone feels better about the state of the franchise heading into the offseason. But, how will that shape the winter for the Brewers? Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel discussed that topic and other issues in a recent online chat with fans. Here are the highlights:

  • GM Doug Melvin will be looking to add a veteran to the starting rotation and Haudricourt named Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson, and Kyle Lohse as possibilities. A fan suggested Brandon McCarthy and Haudricourt acknowledged the Brewers will perform their due diligence, but any addition will only be made if the pitcher is affordable, the right fit, and wants to come to Milwaukee. 
  • Haudricourt anticipates the Brewers signing a free agent starting pitcher is a more likely scenario than trading for one because the club has some payroll flexibility and they've already traded away a lot of prospects for pitching in recent years.
  • Don't look for the Brewers to deal Corey Hart or Rickie Weeks to create more payroll flexibility. Haudricourt would be surprised if Hart, entering the final year of his contract with a 2013 salary of $10 MM, is traded despite the presence of Southern League MVP Hunter Morris. Weeks, due a guaranteed $21MM over the next two seasons, should also be safe, Haudricourt theorized, because the Brewers have enough money coming off the books to not have to worry about his salary. 
  • Haudricourt expects the payroll be less in 2013 than the $100 million-plus of this year, a spending level that should put the franchise in the red for 2012.
  • Expect Nyjer Morgan to be non-tendered. It was obvious, Haudricourt opined, that Morgan was being phased out and having made $2.3MM and eligible for arbitration again, he probably will be replaced by Logan Schafer, a less expensive option who is considered a better defender. Haudricourt did praise Morgan for conducting himself professionally and never popping off or openly complaining about his decrease in playing time.
  • Haudricourt listed some minor league prospects who took a big step this year and that fans should keep an eye on next season, including the aforementioned Morris. 

Royals Rumors: Payroll, Sanchez, Lohse, Trades

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Royals owner David Glass recently said that the team is "committed to improving (their) starting pitching" while also indicating a willingness to operate at a financial loss to be competitive. Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star has the latest on the team…

  • “Our market is what it is,” said GM Dayton Moore. “We’re not going to have a payroll of $100MM. We know that going into it. We embrace who we are … We’ve got to stay consistent with our approach. We’re not going get crazy and go nuts in free agency.”
  • There are indications that the Royals have Anibal Sanchez and Kyle Lohse at the top of their free agent target list. Bringing Zack Greinke back for a second tour of duty is unlikely.
  • The team's list of secondary pitching targets is believed to include Ryan Dempster, Hiroki Kuroda, Shaun Marcum, Carlos Villanueva, and Carlos Zambrano. They will also monitor pitchers who could have club options declined, like Dan Haren and Ervin Santana.
  • “Absolutely … I think any pitcher would be fortunate to pitch here," said right-hander Jeremy Guthrie, an impending free agent the team would like to retain. They are unwilling to go beyond a two-year deal, however.
  • Moore acknowledged that there is a chance of working out a new contract with Guthrie during the exclusive negotiating window prior to free agency.
  • “I wouldn’t say anybody is untouchable,” said Moore with regards to potential trade talks. “You go into any discussion with an open mind. That being said, there are certain positions on the diamond that are very difficult to replace …  You don’t want to compromise in one area just to get strong in another area.”
  • Dutton estimates that the Royals could have $20-23MM to spend this winter while keeping the current roster intact.

Central Notes: Indians, Tigers, Lohse

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Dusty Baker will manage his 3,000th MLB game when the Reds visit the Cubs at Wrigley Field tonight. It’ll be a familiar setting for Baker, who managed the Cubs for four seasons before moving on to Cincinnati. Here are the latest links from MLB's two central divisions…

  • Indians president Mark Shapiro indicated that the team will have the ability to spend this offseason (Twitter link). However, Shapiro questions the depth of this particular free agent market. The Indians could be looking to sign an outfielder, and this year’s free agent class is particularly strong in the outfield.
  • Anibal Sanchez of the Tigers and Wandy Rodriguez of the Pirates are among the trade deadline acquisitions who have recovered from shaky beginnings in new cities, Paul Casella of MLB.com writes.
  • St. Louis Post-Dispatch writers Derrick Goold, Rick Hummel, Jeff Gordon and Tom Timmermann weigh in on whether the Cardinals should look to retain Kyle Lohse for 2013. The writers note that the Cardinals have starting pitching depth and need to spend on other areas, such as a possible extension for Adam Wainwright. Nearly three quarters of respondents to a recent MLBTR poll suggested the Cardinals should make Lohse a qualifying offer when he hits free agency after the season.

Poll: Should Kyle Lohse Get A Qualifying Offer?

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Kyle Lohse’s strong season is part of the reason the Cardinals are on track to return to the playoffs for the third time in the last four seasons. Lohse, who starts against the Astros tonight, has a 2.81 ERA with 5.8 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 40.2% ground ball rate in 192 innings over the course of 30 starts this year. The 33-year-old right-hander has an eye-catching 14-3 record with an average fastball velocity of 89.4 mph and a swinging strike rate of 7.1%.

Despite his production, he’s not expected to return to St. Louis when he hits free agency this offseason, as the Cardinals already have an assortment of options for their 2013 rotation. Instead, the Scott Boras client figures to seek another multiyear deal in free agency when his four-year, $41MM contract expires after the season.

The Cardinals could make him a qualifying offer, even if they don’t expect him to return in 2013. Extending Lohse a qualifying offer would be the only way for GM John Mozeliak to obtain a compensatory draft pick next year. Without an offer, Lohse would leave and the Cardinals would get nothing.

If St. Louis does make Lohse an offer, he’d be tied to draft pick compensation and one of two things would happen: he’d accept and get locked in to a one-year deal at a salary of $13MM-plus, or he’d decline in search of a multiyear deal, setting St. Louis up for draft pick compensation in 2013. 

The Cardinals will have other needs to address this offseason, such as bullpen help and a potential extension for Adam Wainwright, so spending $13MM on another starter might be considered a luxury. But they could move Lohse, who would generate trade interest on a one-year deal in the $13MM range. 

If the Cardinals are willing to take this risk, they can set themselves up for draft pick compensation in 2013. If not, they can keep it simple and let Lohse depart without making him a qualifying offer. What should they do?

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