Kyle Gibson

Cardinals Decline Team Options For Gibson, Lynn, Middleton

By Leo Morgenstern | October 31, 2024 at 12:45pm CDT

12:45 pm: The Cardinals have formally announced their decision to decline all three club options.

12:22 pm: The Cardinals will not pick up their 2025 team options for right-handed pitchers Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, or Keynan Middleton, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The club could have retained Gibson and Lynn for $12MM each, while Middleton’s option was valued at $6MM. Instead, the Cardinals will pay all three pitchers a $1MM buyout and send them back onto the free agent market. They will be eligible to sign with any of the other 29 teams as of Monday.

Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Katie Woo wrote that the team was “not expected” to keep Lynn or Middleton, but the news about Gibson comes as a bit more of a surprise. The durable veteran came exactly as advertised in 2024, giving the Cardinals 30 starts and 169 2/3 innings with a 4.24 ERA and 4.44 SIERA. However, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold that he is prioritizing “maximum flexibility” this offseason, hence his decision to clear as much money from the books as possible.

Gibson has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the game throughout his career. Dating back to his first full season in 2014, he has made 314 starts. No other pitcher has made as many 300 starts in that time. He has never pitched like an ace, but there is good value in a starter who can consistently pitch a full season’s worth of innings with an ERA close to league average. That’s why Gibson earned a $10MM deal from the Orioles two offseasons ago and a $13MM guarantee from the Cardinals last winter. That’s also why he would have been well worth a net value of $11MM in 2025. It seems as if the Cardinals understand as much but simply prefer to use that money elsewhere. Woo noted they might have picked up Gibson’s option if they felt confident they could offload Miles Mikolas or Steven Matz in a trade. Her report suggests the front office liked Gibson at that $11MM value but ultimately decided they had too much money tied up in other veteran starting pitchers.

Goold mentions that Gibson has “expressed an interest” in returning to St. Louis next season, and for what it’s worth, Mozeliak suggested the team could still consider reunions with all three pitchers. Presumably, however, the Cardinals will wait and see if they can trade any of their other veteran starters before possibly picking up negotiations with Gibson.

Lynn pitched well over the first four months of the 2024 season, bouncing back from a difficult 2023 campaign to produce a respectable 4.06 ERA and 4.47 SIERA across his first 21 starts. Unfortunately, right knee inflammation limited him to just two starts over the final two months of the year. They were both good outings, lowering his full-season ERA to 3.84, but considering Lynn’s age (he’ll turn 38 next year) and his recent history of right knee problems (he missed more than two months after knee surgery in 2022), it’s not hard to see why the Cardinals were wary of bringing him back on an eight-figure salary in 2025.

The 2024 season was a lost year for Middleton, who could not return to the mound after suffering a forearm strain in spring training. He ultimately underwent flexor tendon surgery in June, formally ending his season. With that in mind, the Cardinals’ decision not to pick up his option is the least surprising of the three. It’s possible he’ll be back to full health by next spring, but his value is certainly lower than it was at this time last year. Wherever he signs this offseason, it’s likely to be for significantly less than $6MM.

In addition to Gibson, Lynn, and Middleton, three more Cardinals veterans will be free agents this winter: Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, and Andrew Kittredge. Even with a handful of players eligible to earn raises in arbitration and Sonny Gray’s forthcoming $15MM salary bump (the deal he signed last winter was heavily backloaded), RosterResource estimates the Cardinals 2025 payroll to be $147MM, well below their estimated $183MM payroll this past season. If they had chosen to pick up the options on Gibson, Lynn, and Middleton, that would have increased next year’s payroll projection to $174MM.

Latest On The Cardinals’ Offseason Plans

By Nick Deeds | October 30, 2024 at 10:56am CDT

As the postseason nears its conclusion, we’re rapidly nearing the proper start of the offseason for all thirty clubs. Among the first decisions to be made for any club during the offseason is whether or not they’ll exercise club options for the following season. Those decisions are due five days after the end of the World Series, but clubs generally have an idea of where they stand before then. The Athletic’s Katie Woo discussed the Cardinals’ plans for the three club options they hold for 2025 this morning, and noted that the club is “not expected” to exercise its $12MM option ($1MM buyout) on veteran righty Lance Lynn or its $6MM option ($1MM buyout) on reliever Keynan Middleton.

Neither of those decisions are necessarily a surprise. Previous reporting indicated that Middleton was expected to land elsewhere this winter, and while Lynn’s status was more up in the air it’s long appeared that the club may prefer to retain right-hander Kyle Gibson on his team option, which comes with identical terms to Lynn’s, in 2025. That said, Woo makes clear that even Gibson’s option being picked up isn’t a guarantee. Instead, Woo suggests that the club would be “almost guaranteed” to trade either right-hander Miles Mikolas or southpaw Steven Matz this winter if Gibson’s option does end up getting picked up. Woo notes that the odds of Gibson’s option being picked up will “increase” if the Cardinals feel confident they’ll be able to move one of the two this winter, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Matz is surely the more tradable of the duo, even as he’s coming off a largely lost season on the mound that saw him pitch to a lackluster 5.08 ERA amid injuries that limited him to just 44 1/3 innings of work on the mound. While that production is unlikely to entice much in return on the trade market, the increasing price of starting pitching in recent years makes the remaining one year and $12.5MM on Matz’s contract a bit more palatable than it otherwise would be. Overall, the southpaw has been roughly league average (95 ERA+) while swinging between the bullpen and rotation for the Cardinals and figures to be a generally solid serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter in 2025. It’s also possible a club could look to convert him to full-time relief work after the lefty posted sub-3.00 ERAs out of the bullpen in each of his last three seasons, albeit in small sample sizes that total just 33 1/3 innings of 2.43 ERA ball.

Mikolas, however, figures to be quite difficult for the club to move. Woo notes that the 36-year-old is among the club’s many veterans (including Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado) who holds a no-trade clause that will restrict their availability to be dealt this winter. The Cardinals will need to have conversations with all of those players about their futures, but even if Mikolas agrees to waive his no-trade rights to play elsewhere its unclear how interested rival clubs would be in his services. Mikolas just endured the worst season of his Cardinals career in 2024 as he pitched to a subpar 5.35 ERA in 171 2/3 innings of work.

A hurler who will turn 37 in August with three below average seasons by ERA+ over the last four years and a $17.67MM salary for 2025 seems unlikely to garner much interest on the trade market unless St. Louis is willing to pay down a significant portion of his salary. That being said, there are some silver linings in Mikolas’s profile. The veteran’s 4.24 FIP and 4.28 SIERA in 2024 were far better than his actual on-field results, and he remains one of the most durable starters in the game today. Over the past three seasons, Mikolas has made 100 appearances (99 starts) and thrown 575 1/3 innings. That’s good for the sixth-most innings in baseball over that time, behind only Logan Webb, Aaron Nola, Corbin Burnes, Logan Gilbert, and Framber Valdez. If the Cardinals were willing to pay down a portion of Mikolas’s salary, it’s at least feasible that a team in need of innings could take a flier on the veteran in hopes of a bounce-back.

How Will The Cardinals Handle Their Rotation Options?

By Nick Deeds | October 6, 2024 at 10:56am CDT

The coming offseason figures to be a tumultuous one for the Cardinals. Coming off a second consecutive season where the club missed the playoffs, St. Louis brass have already announced that significant changes are coming, headlined by Chaim Bloom stepping in to take over baseball operations following the 2025 season (with a larger role in the meantime) and the club planning to slash payroll as they figure to bring back few if any of their departing veteran players.

While Paul Goldschmidt headlines the list of players who appear likely to don another uniform in 2025, what’s not yet clear is what the club intends to do about its starting rotation. Rumors have swirled that the club could shop staff ace Sonny Gray this winter as they look to trim payroll and focus on developing young players, and if Gray were to be moved that would leave only struggling veteran Miles Mikolas, oft-injured swingman Steven Matz, breakout youngster Andre Pallante, and deadline acquisition Erick Fedde as rotation options on guaranteed contracts for 2025. With some interesting young arms such as Michael McGreevey, Sem Robberse, and Adam Kloffenstein in the wings as potential contributors next year, it’s not hard to imagine St. Louis getting solid enough production from its internal options.

With that being said, however, their current rotation picture offers very little certainty, especially should Gray wind up pitching elsewhere next year. After all, even Pallante and Fedde lack track records of success in a big league rotation that go beyond the current season. Fortunately, the Cards have not one but two options available to them that could help raise the floor on their 2025 rotation at a relatively cheap price: Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. The veteran hurlers will play at ages 37 and 38 respectively next year, but both posted solid results as back-end rotation options for the club this year and come with identical $12MM club options (with $1MM buyouts) for 2025. Given the club’s focus on the future and desire to trim payroll, it would be something of a surprise if both options were exercised. Given the many similarities between the two veteran Midwest natives, it’s fair to wonder which of the two hurlers would be a better choice for the Cardinals to retain next year, and which one they should send into free agency.

Of the two, retaining Lynn would surely offer a higher ceiling. The veteran hurler pitched the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis as a perfectly capable mid-rotation arm, but had a late-career breakout with the Rangers and White Sox that saw him pitch like a true top-of-the-rotation ace: from 2019 to 2021, Lynn posted a strong 3.26 ERA that was 46% better than league average with a 3.39 FIP and a 27.5% strikeout rate. He also enjoyed slightly better results than Gibson did this year, with advantages in ERA (3.84 vs 4.24), FIP (4.31 vs 4.42), and strikeout rate (21.3% vs 20.9%). For a club that’s likely to rely primarily on internal improvements in order to maintain hopes of contending for a playoff spot in 2025, there’s an argument to be made that Lynn’s ceiling and stronger results this season make him the smarter choice to retain going forward.

That’s not to say there isn’t a case to be made for Gibson, however. While the 12-year MLB veteran has never flashed the ceiling Lynn did during his peak, Gibson is more dependable in some ways. The groundballer rarely misses time due to injury, having made at least 29 starts in nine of his ten full seasons in the majors. By contrast, Lynn was limited to just 21 starts in 2022 and 23 starts this year by knee issues. What’s more, even as Lynn posted stronger overall numbers with the Cardinals this year, certain underlying metrics actually painted a much less clear picture: Gibson’s 4.44 SIERA is nearly identical to Lynn’s 4.40 figure, while Gibson actually wins on both xERA (4.90 vs 4.93) and xFIP (4.19 vs 4.39) thanks in part to a much stronger grounder rate (44.8% vs 36.3%).

While Gibson’s ceiling may not be as high as Lynn’s his reliability could be particularly valuable for a club that figures to rely heavily on young arms who may not yet be ready for a full season’s workload next year, and his comparable expected metrics call into question just how much of an advantage Lynn really has in terms of run prevention. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the club could choose a third option and decline both club options in hopes of finding similar production at a lower cost in free agency. It would be a risky choice to make given the rising costs of pitching in recent years, but a back-end arm like Martin Perez, Jose Urena, or Michael Lorenzen could theoretically be had at a lower price than either veteran’s club option depending on how this winter’s market shakes out. Of course, any player available at that price point would surely have flaws of their own.

How should the Cardinals handle their upcoming club options in the rotation? Have your say in the poll below:

Details On Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson Contracts

By Anthony Franco | November 28, 2023 at 10:22pm CDT

The Cardinals finalized their three-year, $75MM contract with Sonny Gray yesterday. It came with a club option for the 2027 season which reports had pegged at $30MM with a $5MM buyout.

That deal is heavily backloaded. As reported by the Associated Press, Gray is set for a modest $10MM salary in 2024. He’ll make $25MM in ’25 and $35MM in the final guaranteed season, with the buyout bringing the guarantee to $75MM.

The ’27 option is not strictly a team provision; if the Cardinals exercise the option, Gray would have the right to opt out. If either side declines the option, the buyout would be paid in $1MM installments between 2027-31. Gray also receives full no-trade protection, per the AP.

In the short term, the backloaded nature of the deal might be most meaningful for the organization. Had the contract been paid out fairly evenly, the team’s 2024 commitments would have jumped into the $190MM+ range. With the relatively low sum for 2024, Roster Resource projects the Cards’ player spending for next season around $180MM.

St. Louis opened the ’23 season with a payroll around $177MM, as calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated at the beginning of the offseason that the club figured to remain in that general area for next season. There still might not be a ton of remaining spending room, although the signings of Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have checked off the team’s primary goal of adding three starting pitchers.

They’re also looking to add to the bullpen but could accomplish that via trade and/or free some payroll capacity by trading a veteran player. Tyler O’Neill (projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.5MM salary) and Dylan Carlson (projected at $1.8MM) are each into arbitration. Steven Matz, due successive $12.5MM salaries for the next two seasons, was pushed into the #5 spot in the rotation and could potentially be a trade candidate if St. Louis felt confident in any of their younger arms to take a step forward.

The AP also provides specifics on Gibson’s contract. Initially reported as a $12MM guarantee, it’s actually a $13MM deal. Gibson will make a $12MM salary next season and is ensured at least a $1MM buyout on a $12MM team option for 2025. The righty would receive a $1MM assignment bonus if traded and would lock in a $500K incentive for reaching 175 innings in either year of the contract.

NL Notes: Playoff Shares, D’Backs, Gibson, Price, Mets

By Mark Polishuk | November 23, 2023 at 10:50pm CDT

Championship rings carry much greater import than financial gain during a postseason run, but teams that reach the playoffs get extra revenue that is divvied up into shares. The Associated Press reported the figures on the 2023 playoff pool earlier this week, and how the $107.8MM in playoff revenue was divided amongst the 12 playoff teams, with more money naturally going to the teams who advanced furthest. According to numbers released by the league, the Rangers got $38.8MM (split into 64 full shares, 12.56 partial shares and $48,000 in cash awards) and the Diamondbacks got 71 full shares and 11.49 partial shares out of their bonus of $25.9MM.

How the shares are awarded within a clubhouse is determined by veteran players on each team. Several players and managers automatically qualify for full shares, but the players must then vote on what other players (such as someone who was with the club for only part of the season) or uniformed personnel (coaches, trainers, support staff, etc.) will also get full or partial shares. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal shared some insight into the process, and how the D’Backs made their decisions in who and who didn’t get a $313.6K full share, but the team did its best to spread the wealth. “I’m not rolling my eyes over a $300K check. I’m just saying the impact that it has on me is not going to be as significant as on any of our younger players who have limited service time or our clubhouse attendants or our kitchen attendants,” Evan Longoria said. “That impact is going to be much, much more for them….I want you guys to understand the perspective that I’m coming from when I say it’s life-changing for these people.”

Cardinals Sign Kyle Gibson To One-Year Deal

By Darragh McDonald | November 21, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The Cardinals announced the signing of Kyle Gibson to a one-year deal with a club option for 2025. The veteran right-hander will reportedly be guaranteed $12MM; the option value is still unreported. Gibson is a client of Rowley Sports Management.

Gibson, 36, spent 2023 with the Orioles on a one-year, $10MM deal. He took the ball 33 times for the O’s and logged 192 innings with an earned run average of 4.73. It’s possible that he deserved better results than that, as his 69.7% strand rate was a bit below average. He struck out just 19.5% of batters faced but limited walks to a 6.8% clip and kept 48.9% of balls in play on the ground. His 4.13 FIP and 4.40 SIERA paint a slightly more flattering portrait than his ERA.

Since as far back as August, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has been open about the club’s desire to add three starters to the rotation. That was in order to replace the departures of Adam Wainwright, who is now retired, and Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery, who were traded at the deadline and are now free agents. There’s also some uncertainty with the in-house options, as Steven Matz has dealt with injuries and inconsistency of late while depth option Dakota Hudson was non-tendered last week when the club failed to find a trade for him. All that left Miles Mikolas and a heap of questions as the on-paper rotation.

But that was prior to this week. The Cards added another veteran innings eater yesterday, agreeing with Lance Lynn on a one-year deal. Between Lynn and now Gibson, it seems the club is starting out by building a foundation of reliability, more floor than ceiling. In each of the past nine full seasons, Gibson has made at least 25 starts, with 2016 being the only one of those seasons where he didn’t get to 29. He also made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign. He’s only been on the injured list three times since his major league debut, dealing with a right shoulder strain in 2016, ulcerative colitis in 2019 and then a right groin strain in 2021. It’s a fairly similar situation with Lynn. He had knee surgery in 2022 and was limited to 21 starts, but apart from that, he’s made at least 28 starts in each full season dating back to 2012.

Lynn is coming off a down year, having allowed 44 home runs, leading to an ERA of 5.73. However, it’s possible that was a one-year blip, as he had a mark of 3.99 the year before, 2.69 in 2021 and 3.74 for his career. Gibson’s career ERA is 4.54 and he’s never been better than 3.62 in a single season, but as mentioned, his ability to take the mound every five days is quite strong. His 1,645 innings pitched dating back to 2014 are the fourth-most in baseball, trailing only Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke.

Since the offseason began, the Cards have been connected to some of the top free agent arms available, such as Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Some fans may be disappointed by the additions of Lynn and Gibson on one-year deals but there’s nothing to indicate the door to a blockbuster has been closed by these moves. Gray and Yamamoto are still out there, as are plenty of other impactful starters. The Cards, meanwhile, should still have the money and opportunity for another pitcher.

The 2024 payroll is now set to be about $170MM, per Roster Resource, though some trades could perhaps drop that down a bit. The club is expected to look into moving a position player such as Tyler O’Neill, who has a projected salary of $5.5MM, or perhaps Dylan Carlson and his $1.8MM projection. Their franchise high payroll was last year’s $177MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but it’s possible they will give themselves a bit more wiggle room in order to get over their lackluster 2023 season.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that Gibson was signing with the Cardinals on a one-year deal with a 2025 club option. Jesse Rogers of ESPN was first with the $12MM guarantee.

MLBTR Trade Rumors Podcast: Stroman Lobbies for Extension, Mets’ Woes and Astros Seeking Bats

By Darragh McDonald | June 14, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Marcus Stroman lobbying for an extension with the Cubs (1:40)
The struggling Mets lose Pete Alonso to the injured list (6:00)
The Astros seem more focused on getting bats than arms at the deadline (10:05)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

Other than a pure prospect, I don’t see a difference making middle of the order bat being available at the trade deadline. Be it a 2 month rental or even someone with 1 or 2 years of control. Do you? If so please tell me about him. (14:45)
Could this be the year in which the O’s get a starter? They’re notoriously cheap when it comes to big contracts or giving up the farm, but I can’t see any team going deep into the playoffs with Kyle Gibson or Tyler Wells as their Game One ace. If so, who are the top candidates, knowing that the O’s will have to compete on the market with any team with a winning percentage over .500? (19:45)
The Cardinals are full of young players that may not be stars in the making, but probably get a fairer shot at regular playing time on many other rosters to prove their worth. If the Cards ultimately become sellers at the deadline, do they really get much value in moving guys like Iván Herrera, Juan Yepez, Luken Baker, Moises Gomez, and/or one of their outfielders? Or are they content to have that depth if the returns are minimal? (22:35)

Check out our past episodes!

Elly De La Cruz, Alek Manoah’s Demotion and Surgery for Jacob deGrom – listen here
The Wide-Open NL Wild Card Race, Returning Pitchers and Cast-Off Veterans – listen here
The Mets are turning things around, and how serious are the Mariners, Marlins and Diamondbacks? – listen here

Sorting Through The Orioles’ Rotation Options

By Steve Adams | February 2, 2023 at 4:59pm CDT

The Orioles headed into the winter intent on adding a pair of veterans to the rotation, and while there was a substantial layoff between their first and second additions, with Kyle Gibson signing a one-year deal back on Dec. 5 and Cole Irvin not joining the staff until last Friday’s trade. That gives the O’s a pair of veterans who are plenty capable of eating up innings while still also leaving a fairly wide-open window for several younger arms to pitch their way into the team’s plans.

In all likelihood, the Orioles will wind up using ten or more starters over the course of the season. It’s commonplace for teams to cycle through far more than the five (or six) members of the Opening Day rotation — particularly younger teams like Baltimore, where the rotation will be composed primarily of yet-unproven starters and/or prospects whose workloads will be handled with care.

Locks

Kyle Gibson, RHP: Whether by design or by happenstance, the decision to bring in Gibson over 2022 staff innings leader Jordan Lyles wound up being a cost-neutral gambit, which will lead to inevitable comparisons between the two. The Orioles bought Lyles’ $11MM club option out for $1MM, then turned around and invested the exact same $10MM they saved into a one-year deal with Gibson.

The 35-year-old Gibson, like Lyles, is a workhorse by today’s standards. He’s averaged 29.875 starts per 162-game season, dating back to 2014, and made a full slate of 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season. He has a below-average strikeout rate with solid command and above-average ground-ball tendencies. The O’s are going to count on him for 30-plus starts and 160-plus innings, although if they’re not in contention when the trade deadline rolls around, it’s easy to see them putting Gibson on the market.

Cole Irvin, LHP: For the second time in as many weeks, I’m listing Irvin as a “lock” in a team’s rotation while profiling their various options on the back end of the staff. As noted on that rundown of the A’s rotation, there was always a chance that Irvin could be moved, though a midseason deal felt likelier. The O’s instead jumped to add Irvin as a durable source of innings.

Over the past two seasons, he’s made 62 starts of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but a superb 5.2% walk rate as a member of Oakland’s rotation. That’ll be the type of production they’re looking for not just this year but for the next several seasons. Irvin is controlled for another four years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until next offseason.

There’s some risk in acquiring Irvin, who’s had far more success at the spacious Oakland Coliseum than on the road. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, the lefty owns a 3.44 ERA pitching in Oakland, where opponents have batted just .243/.288/.355 against him in nearly 800 plate appearances. In that same timeframe, Irvin’s road ERA is a more alarming 4.88, and opponents have pounced on him for a .285/.330/.491 slash. The O’s recently made their left field dimensions quite a bit more pitcher-friendly, but Irvin will still be facing some righty-heavy lineups within the AL East.

Pitchers who made 15+ starts in 2022

Dean Kremer, RHP: Kremer, 27, finished second on the Orioles with 125 1/3 innings pitched and notched a tidy 3.23 ERA last season despite a tepid 17% strikeout rate. Kremer, acquired from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, doesn’t miss bats or keep the ball on the ground, but he has a better-than-average walk rate. Any regression in his 0.79 HR/9 mark or his 77.8% left-on-base rate — he entered the season at 2.12 and 65.1%, respectively — could spike his ERA closer to his 4.54 SIERA. That said, Kremer at least looks the part of a back-of-the-rotation arm. And, now that he’s poised to take on a larger workload, he should at least be a decent source of average-ish innings.

Kyle Bradish, RHP: One of four minor leaguers acquired in the trade sending Dylan Bundy to the Angels, Bradish ranked third on the 2022 O’s with 117 2/3 innings pitched. He missed more bats and generated more grounders than Kremer but was also more prone to both walks and home runs. Bradish’s 4.90 ERA isn’t much to look at, but while fielding-independent metrics feel Kremer had some good fortune in ’22, the opposite is true of Bradish, whose FIP, SIERA, etc. are all quite a bit lower than his earned run average. Both pitchers seem capable of turning in an ERA in the low- or mid-4.00s over 150-plus innings.

Spenser Watkins, RHP: A former 30th-round pick by the Tigers, Watkins signed with the O’s as a minor league free agent in Jan. 2021 and debuted as a 29-year-old rookie later that season. He tallied 105 1/3 innings for the 2022 Orioles, posting a 4.70 ERA along the way. Among the 156 pitchers with at least 150 innings thrown since 2021, no one has posted a lower strikeout rate than Watkins’ 13.7%. His 7.9% swinging-strike rate is fifth-lowest among that group. Watkins has good command and has posted solid numbers in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he feels like more of a depth option based on his big league work to date.

Tyler Wells, RHP: Baltimore’s most effective starter for much of the 2022 season, Wells carried a 3.09 ERA through his first 16 starts but needed a .225 average on balls in play to get there. That minimal BABIP and a 16.7% strikeout rate made the ERA look fairly dubious, and Wells indeed struggled mightily over his final few starts of the season. It should be noted that he missed more than a month due to a side injury and landed back on the shelf due to shoulder trouble to close out the year, but he nonetheless yielded a 7.39 ERA over his final 28 innings (seven starts). None of Wells, Kremer or Bradish miss bats at a particularly high level, nor do they possess elite command or ground-ball tendencies. They each have some appealing traits, however, and any of this trio could be a viable fourth/fifth starter.

Austin Voth, RHP: Continuing on that trend, Voth is another fly-ball pitcher with passable but not eye-catching strikeout and walk numbers. Claimed off waivers from the Nationals in early June, Voth made 17 starts and five relief appearances, pitching to a 3.04 ERA in that time. He’s not going to keep stranding 82% of the baserunners he allows — that’s 10 percentage points above the league average and above Voth’s career mark prior to 2022 — but he has the makings of a back-end starter, as he’s shown on occasion with the Nats in the past. Voth is out of minor league options, so he’s going to be on the roster either as a starter or as a swingman.

The Top Prospects

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP: The arm on which so many Orioles fans are pinning their hopes, the 23-year-old Rodriguez might have already made his big league debut were it not for a lat strain that sidelined him for half the 2022 season. Rodriguez, selected with the No. 11 pick of the 2018 draft, ranks among the sport’s top 15 overall prospects at each of Baseball America (6), MLB.com (7), ESPN (12) and The Athletic (15). A 6’5″, 220-pound righty armed with a four-pitch mix that’s headlined by an upper-90s heater and elite changeup, Rodriguez has genuine front-of-the-rotation potential.

Rodriguez is regarded as one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects, and now that the new CBA actually reward teams for promoting prospects via potential draft compensation based on Rookie of the Year voting, Rodriguez will have a legitimate chance to make the Opening Day rotation. The O’s may want to be cautious, as that lat strain limited him to just 75 2/3 innings in 2022 and a jump to a full season of MLB starts would probably more than double that total. Rodriguez might be the organization’s best starter right now, even though he hasn’t made his MLB debut. He posted a combined 2.62 ERA across three minor league levels and did so with a mammoth 36.6% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. He’s going to make his MLB debut in 2023 — it’s just a matter of when.

DL Hall, LHP: Unlike Rodriguez, Hall has already made his debut at the MLB level, although it didn’t go as the team had hoped. The former No. 21 overall pick pitched in 11 games — 10 of them relief appearances — but was tagged for nine runs on 17 hits and six walks. The resulting 5.93 ERA wasn’t particularly encouraging, but Hall fanned 19 opponents (29.7%) and issued walks at a lower clip in the Majors than he had in Triple-A (9.4% versus 14.2%).

Command issues have long been the primary flaw scouts see in Hall — a 6’2″ lefty with a heater that averaged 96.4 mph during that MLB debut and multiple plus or better secondary pitches. Baseball America pegs Hall’s fastball as an 80 on the 20-80 scale, while also crediting him with a plus-plus slider, a plus curve and a plus changeup. Unfortunately, all of that is accompanied by well below-average command. Hall has walked 13.4% of his opponents in the minors, and in his 18 minor league starts this past season, he completed six innings just once. Some of that is the Orioles being cautious with an arm they hold in high regard, but Hall averaged 75 pitches per outing despite averaging under four innings per start. Certainly, he could stand to be more efficient.

Last year’s 98 innings were a career-high for Hall, who’s also missed ample time due to injury in his pro career. Between the lack of innings and the shaky command, many scouting reports feel he’s likelier to be a dynamic reliever than a starter, but the O’s will likely give him some considerable leash as a starter because the ceiling is so high.

Other options on the 40-man

Mike Baumann, RHP: The 27-year-old Baumann was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects as recently as two years ago, but a flexor strain cost him time and he hasn’t topped 100 innings in either of the past two seasons. The O’s have begun working Baumann out of the bullpen more frequently, and given the number of rotation options the organization has, that could be a better path to the big leagues for him. There’s benefit to keeping him stretched out as a starter, of course, but Baumann made just 13 starts to 20 relief appearances last year.

Bruce Zimmermann, LHP: A local product the O’s acquired in the trade that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves back in 2018, Zimmermann has pitched in parts of three seasons for the O’s but never posted an ERA south of 5.00. In 145 MLB frames, he carries a 5.69 ERA (5.78 FIP, 4.43 SIERA) with a low 17.6% strikeout rate but a strong 5.7% walk rate. Zimmermann has averaged just 91.3 mph on his heater, and opponents have teed off on both that pitch and his changeup, clubbing an average of 2.23 homers per nine innings against the southpaw. Zimmermann still has a pair of option years remaining and has been good in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he needs to find a way to curtail his issues with the long ball.

Drew Rom, LHP: The O’s selected Rom to the 40-man roster back in November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. The 2018 fourth-rounder split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, logging a combined 4.43 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and solid ground-ball tendencies. He’s not an overpowering lefty, but he’s pretty close to big league ready and the O’s clearly felt he’d have been poached in the Rule 5 had he gone unprotected. There are a lot of candidates for innings in Baltimore, but he’ll be in the mix to debut this year.

Recovering from injury

John Means, LHP: Baltimore’s best starter from 2019-21, Means logged a 3.73 ERA in 345 1/3 innings during that time and was named the Orioles’ Opening Day starter in 2022. He made just two starts last year before an elbow injury shelved him, however, and Means underwent Tommy John surgery in late April. That’ll take him out of the equation early in the year, but the O’s can hope for Means to return at some point over the summer. He only has two years of club control remaining.

—

As things stand, the Orioles have two veteran locks (Gibson, Irvin), a series of righties who achieved solid results despite middling K/BB and batted-ball profiles in 2022 (Kremer, Bradish, Wells, Voth) and a pair electric prospects (Rodriguez, Hall) — the former of which is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball.

It’s a promising group, but the O’s will need to convert on Rodriguez and either see Hall improve his command or another young arm (e.g. Cade Povich) take a pronounced step forward in 2023. Baltimore’s system is rife with high-end bats but less stocked with arms. A rotation featuring Rodriguez (assuming he hits the ground running) and a host of No. 4 types is enough to compete, but it’s still a bit surprising that the team didn’t land a higher-profile arm this winter in an effort to bolster the starting staff. Perhaps the O’s are confident that an incumbent arm is on the cusp of a breakout, but right now Baltimore’s lineup looks more formidable than its rotation.

Orioles Agree To One-Year Deal With Kyle Gibson

By Simon Hampton | December 5, 2022 at 7:37pm CDT

TODAY: Gibson signed for one year and $10MM, Orioles GM Mike Elias told reporters (including The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). The O’s continue to look for more veteran pitching, and “anyone who’s out there” on the market is a possibility. This includes starters who have turned down qualifying offers. In other Gibson news, the Blue Jays were also known to have interest in the right-hander, and The Athletic’s Dan Connolly reports that Gibson took Baltimore’s offer over an identical one-year, $10MM deal with Toronto.

DECEMBER 3: The Orioles have strengthened their rotation, with veteran starter Kyle Gibson agreeing to a one-year deal, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal is pending a physical.

It’d been widely reported that the Orioles were in the market for starting pitching additions, and Gibson gives them a solid back-of-the-rotation arm. They’ve been linked to a number of other starting pitchers this off-season, and it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if Gibson isn’t the only one joining the team this winter.

Gibson, 35, had a 5.05 ERA across 167 2/3 innings for the Phillies in 2022. Advanced metrics were a bit more favorable, and his FIP stood at 4.28. He did post the best walk rate of his career (6.7%), and while his strikeout numbers have never jumped off the page they were 1.5% better than his career rate of 18.6%.

Gibson was drafted by the Twins with the 22nd pick of the 2009 draft, and made his debut 2013. He struggled a bit initially, but soon settled in as a durable arm at the back of their rotation. He’d go on to make 188 starts across seven seasons for the Twins, peaking in 2018 when he made 32 starts for a 3.62 ERA, almost a full run below his average while in Minnesota.

After reaching free agency at the conclusion of the 2019 season, Gibson latched on with the Rangers on a three-year, $28MM deal. He struggled a bit in the pandemic-shortened season but straightened things out in 2021, pitching to a 2.87 ERA across 19 starts and turning himself into a valuable trade chip for the Rangers at the deadline that year.

Advanced metrics did have him ripe for regression that year, and he did drop off a bit after the Phillies acquired him, pitching to a 5.09 ERA the rest of the way in 2021.

His fastball sits in the low-90s, and he mixes that with a slider, curveball and changeup, as well as a cutter that’s been introduced in recent seasons. It’s the durability that Gibson is noted for though, and apart from his rookie year (and the pandemic season), he’s made at least 25 starts in the other eight full seasons.

He slots into a rotation that features Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and Austin Voth – none of whom have ever reached 25 starts in a big league season. Top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez is also likely to feature in 2023, but as a rookie they’ll be keeping a close eye on his workload.

From here, it seems likely the Orioles will pursue another addition to the rotation as they look to supplement their young roster. The likes of Jameson Taillon, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker would all make sense for Baltimore, and while Gibson can certainly work as a valuable innings-eater, adding one of those names would give their rotation a bit more punch as they look to build off their promising 83-79 2022 season.

Blue Jays Have Made Offer To Andrew Heaney

By Steve Adams | December 5, 2022 at 3:45pm CDT

The Blue Jays are actively exploring the market for rotation help and have put forth an offer to left-hander Andrew Heaney, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Heaney, however, has received varying levels of interest from at least 10 teams and has fielded multiple offers at this point, per the report.

Robust interest in Heaney comes as little surprise. The lefty reportedly drew interest from upwards of a dozen teams last year when he was a rebound candidate seeking a one-year deal in free agency, and while shoulder troubles limited his workload with the Dodgers in 2022, his performance when on the field could scarcely have gone better. Armed with a lethal new slider, Heaney pitched to a 3.10 ERA in 72 2/3 innings.

That’s an impressive mark in and of itself, but Heaney’s secondary metrics were even better. He remained far too susceptible to home runs (1.73 HR/9), but Heaney punched out a ridiculous 35.5% of the batters he faced in 2022 and only allowed walks at a 6.1% clip. No pitcher in baseball last year (min. 70 innings) topped Heaney’s sky-high 16.8% swinging-strike rate, and the only two pitchers who induced chases on pitches off the plate more frequently than Heaney’s 39.5% were Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase and Toronto righty Kevin Gausman.

Heaney has had more than his fair share of injury troubles over the years, undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016 before landing on the IL twice with elbow inflammation (2018, 2019) and then missing three months this past season due to shoulder troubles. On a per-inning basis, however, he arguably turned in the best performance of any free-agent starter outside the top tier of Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. The questions teams have to weigh are how much of his newfound Dodgers success is repeatable and just what they feel comfortable projecting for him, workload-wise, in 2023 and beyond.

This marks the second straight offseason in which the Jays have made an offer to Heaney, as Toronto was reportedly among the interested parties to put forth a one-year offer for him last offseason as well. However, while a one-year deal was sufficient for Heaney’s services last November, he appears quite likely to land a multi-year commitment this time around.

Starting pitching has been a priority for the Jays throughout the winter, with Toronto showing interest in starters of a wide array of quality. Nicholson-Smith writes within his Heaney column, for instance, that Toronto was in the mix for Kyle Gibson before he agreed to terms with the Orioles, and he further reports (via Twitter) that the Jays were willing to go multiple years at a high annual value for Verlander before he landed with the Mets earlier today.

As it stands, the Blue Jays have Gausman, Alek Manoah, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White as their primary options in the rotation. Manoah and Gausman turned in brilliant 2022 seasons and both received some recognition in Cy Young voting — Manoah finished third, Gausman ninth — but the other three struggled through dismal seasons. Berrios had been one of the game’s most consistent starters before stumbling to a 5.23 ERA in 2022. A pricey upside bet on Kikuchi’s blend of velocity and whiffs didn’t pay off (5.19 ERA), and White was tagged for a 7.74 ERA in 10 games after being acquired from the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline. Hyun Jin Ryu underwent Tommy John surgery early in the summer.

Meanwhile, right-hander Ross Stripling became a free agent on the heels of the finest season of his career. In 134 1/3 innings, Stripling posted a 3.01 ERA with a below-average 20.7% strikeout rate but an elite 3.7% walk rate. The Jays could always look to re-sign the 33-year-old, but he’s fielding interest from all 30 teams now and seems a good bet to eventually land a multi-year deal himself.

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