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Poll: Service Time Considerations

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It’s no secret that talent alone doesn’t necessarily dictate when top prospects will reach the major leagues. Ballclubs have significant financial and competitive incentives to keep top prospects down in the minors even when they’re hitting the cover off the ball, or embarrassing every opposing batter from the mound. These incentives are a by-product of MLB’s service time regulations.

For those unfamiliar, the basic concept is as follows: players accrue service time for each day spent at the MLB level, even if they’re on the major league disabled list. After a player collects six years of service time, he’s eligible for free agency.

Things get far more complicated from there, however. MLB has specific regulations in place to account for partial seasons, since the vast majority of players are promoted at some point in the midst of the season. Perhaps the most significant aspect of these regulations (and certainly the most controversial) is that a player doesn’t get a full season’s worth of service time if he spends 12 days in the minors.

That seemingly short amount of time is the difference between the Cubs keeping Kris Bryant under team control through 2020 or 2021, which was (unofficially) the reason the team elected to keep him at Triple-A to start the season. At the end of 2020, Bryant will fall exactly a day shy of qualifying for free agency, giving the team the rights to one more of his prime seasons.

The conversation has once again resurfaced (though admittedly to a lesser extent) in regards to Braves prospect Ronald Acuna. Although the 20-year-old annihilated Grapefruit League pitching to the tune of a .432/.519/.727 batting line with four homers and four steals, Lane Adams and Peter Bourjos made the opening day roster while Acuna was reassigned to minor league camp. He’s now been down long enough to give the Braves control over him for an additional season.

It’s hard to blame teams for managing the service time of top prospects in this way, especially a Braves club that has little chance to contend this season as it is. From a pure baseball standpoint, the fraction of a WAR that Acuna might have contributed in those first 12 days (it’s worth noting that he’s off to a .152/.222/.182 start in Triple-A) is worth tens of millions less than the WAR total he’s likely to post in the year 2024.

On the other hand, the system is hardly fair to the players. At its core, it seems absurd that a single day of service time can cost a player the additional seven or even eight figures he could have earned if his final arbitration season had instead yielded open market value for him.

There wouldn’t seem to be an easy solution to the issue, either. There’s not exactly a midway point between becoming a free agent and being under team control for an additional season (though the Super Two regulations at least guarantee players more arbitration dollars if they’ve accrued a significant portion of a seventh year’s service time). One could say that 12 days is an awfully small percentage of a season and that players should gain the full year even if they spent 20 days, 30 days, 40 days, etc. in the minors, but no matter what, it’d always come down to one day making a multi-million dollar difference in value.

What do you think? Should the service time rules change, or are they perfectly reasonable the way they are now? (Poll link for app users)

Central Notes: Moustakas, Bryant, Miley, Freese

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It has long been suggested that the White Sox would make for an interesting match with free agent third baseman Mike Moustakas, but we’ve seen little in the way of a clear connection. But now there’s evidence at least that the sides are “staying in touch,” in the words of Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Whether that means the South Siders have real interest that would drive a significant offer, of course, is not yet clear. Presumably, the club would be intrigued mostly in a value proposition of some kind, perhaps in a multi-year scenario. While few outside observers believe the Sox roster is primed to compete in 2018, Moustakas would boost the quality in the short term and (more importantly) is young enough that he could be installed as a solid asset for future seasons. With little in the way of clear demand from contenders, this remains one of the more intriguing fits on paper.

  • Cubs star Kris Bryant says this winter’s slow-moving free agent market has spurred him to take labor issues seriously, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. “I need to study up, have my voice heard, continue to learn, because this is going to affect us for years to come,” says Bryant. His own delayed promotion to start the 2015 season has obviously played a role in spurring his attention to the subject. It’s an interesting read on one of the game’s brightest young players, who says he and other players are readying to take a more proactive role. “I think with this next [CBA] things are definitely going to change, and there’ll definitely be more fight on our side just because we’re going to get the chance to experience the effects of some of the things we agreed to,” says Bryant.
  • The Brewers rotation still has plenty of questions at the back end; indeed, many fans would still like to see an outside addition to provide one answer. As things stand, though, there’s a camp battle underway with quite a few participants. Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel wrote yesterday that, while it’s still plenty early, both Wade Miley and Brent Suter have made favorable initial impressions. In Miley’s case, at least, it might even be that his showing already makes him an odds-on favorite to crack the roster. He has over a thousand MLB innings under his belt, after all, and the Brewers might well lose him through an opt-out (he’s an Article XX(B) free agent) if they don’t ultimately put him on the 40-man. Of course, there’s plenty of time yet for candidates to rise and fall in camp.
  • Pirates third baseman David Freese had some salty words for the organization earlier in the winter, but he tells Joe Starkey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that they weren’t directed at finding his way to another team. Rather, it seems, Freese was making a call for all in the organization to recommit to winning — a possibility he says he believes in, particularly with the recent acquisitions of Corey Dickerson and Kevin Siegrist. Freese also says he understands he’s not likely to command the lion’s share of the time at third base. “I’ve had a good run in the big leagues,” he said, “and I just want to go out there and win some games.”

NL Central Notes & Rumors: Reds, Cubs, Harper, Cards, Archer

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The Reds are amid “serious discussions” with free agent reliever David Hernandez, though an agreement isn’t imminent, Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Cincy isn’t the only team after the right-handed Hernandez, per Buchanan, who notes that the Reds are also interested in other free agent relievers and aren’t necessarily limiting themselves to one-year deals as they look to improve their bullpen. On the heels of a strong 2017, Hernandez is seeking a multiyear pact, according to Buchanan. The recipient of a minor league contract last offseason, the 32-year-old Hernandez went on to toss 55 innings of 3.11 ERA ball and notch 8.51 K/9 against 1.47 BB/9 with the Angels and Diamondbacks.

More on a couple of Cincinnati’s division rivals:

  • The Cubs and third baseman Kris Bryant haven’t engaged in long-term extension talks this winter, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told Patrick Mooney of The Athletic on Friday (subscription required/highly recommended). The two sides avoided arbitration Friday when Bryant agreed to a $10.85MM salary – a record amount for a first-time arb-eligible player. While Bryant won’t become a free agent for at least four seasons, Nationals superstar right fielder Bryce Harper could hit the market next winter. If Harper does become a free agent, Bryant informed Mooney he “would love” for the Cubs to sign him. The two have been close friends since childhood, which could help the Cubs if they attempt to recruit Harper.
  • The Cardinals’ current plan for their 2018 bullpen includes deploying the newly signed Luke Gregerson as their closer, president John Mozeliak told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other reporters on Saturday (Twitter link). They also plan to heavily rely on left-hander Tyler Lyons and get contributions from righty prospects Jordan Hicks and Ryan Helsley. Of course, with the season still a couple months away, the Cards could pick up another established reliever(s) to swipe Gregerson’s ninth-inning role in the coming weeks. They’ve been linked to the likes of Alex Colome and Addison Reed this offseason, though the latter came off the board Saturday when he agreed to join the Twins.
  • In another tweet, Goold relays that the Cardinals turned their attention to Rays righty Chris Archer and third baseman Evan Longoria after acquiring outfielder Marcell Ozuna from the Marlins last month. The talks between the two sides “weren’t fruitful,” Goold writes. Longoria is now out of play, having gone to the Giants in a late-December deal, though Archer remains one of the Rays’ prime trade candidates.

Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Kris Bryant

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The Cubs have reached a record-setting deal with star third baseman Kris Bryant, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He will earn $10.85MM, setting a new high-water mark for first-time arb-eligible players.

Previously, Ryan Howard held the record for the biggest arbitration payout to a player entering the process for the first time. His $10MM mark had held sway since 2010. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz broke down Bryant’s case recently, suggesting he felt it somewhat more likely that Bryant would not quite top Howard.

Of course, there could be other factors weighing on the situation, including the controversy over Bryant’s initial promotion timeline and the fact that the Cubs would no doubt like to work out an extension if possible. Paying a bit extra and giving Bryant a record-setting deal may end up working to Chicago’s benefit. And it was no doubt preferable for the club to steer clear of a hearing.

In the spring of 2015, Chicago decided not to take Bryant north with the MLB club when it broke camp, instead waiting a few weeks to bring him up for his first big league action. That delay left the Cubs free to control him through 2021, rather than 2020, but spurred a grievance action and also left Bryant eligible to qualify for arbitration in 2018 — meaning he’ll get four bites at the apple through the arb process.

The Cubs’ approach still clearly favors the organization in the long run. But Bryant nevertheless now stands to take down some massive earnings throughout the arbitration process. He’ll have three more seasons to tack raises on top of his hefty $10.85MM starting point.

Arbitration Breakdown: Kris Bryant

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Recently, I have been discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases as part of MLBTR’s Arbitration Breakdown series. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Full arbitration projections for 2018 are also available.

Star Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant enters arbitration for the first time with a compelling case to compete with historical records. The current record for first time eligible players still goes all the way back to Ryan Howard in 2008, who earned $10MM after a 47 home run season that brought his career total to 129 home runs. While that price point is now ten years old, it is still an unbroken record. Buster Posey got close with $8MM, but that is already five years old.

Those two players share something in common with Bryant and no one else: they had received both a Rookie of the Year Award and a Most Valuable Player Award prior to entering arbitration. The only other such player would have been Mike Trout, but he signed a multi-year deal the year before reaching arbitration eligibility. Awards can be a huge part of arbitration hearings, especially for first-time eligible players like this, which immediately explains why Bryant is projected to earn $8.9MM, nearly halfway between Posey and Howard. Joey Votto also had an MVP Award (but no ROY) in 2011 when he received an $8MM salary, but he ended up agreeing to a multi-year deal and did not exchange figures before that, so he is not very useful for our purposes.

When it comes to actual numbers rather than hardware, Bryant has a good case as well. He hit .295/29/73 in his platform year and has amassed .288/94/274 for his career. Howard hit .268/47/136 in his platform, with .291/129/353 in his career. So he would be appear to represent a ceiling if the deal was more recent. That said, Bryant might argue that his case is old enough that it should not act as a ceiling on his earnings.

Posey hit .336/24/103 in his platform year and had .314/46/191 for his career line entering arbitration. The batting average (and the fact that he is a catcher) makes Posey look more favorable, but the fact that Bryant has twice the career home runs might make his case more impressive in a process that leans heavily on home runs. Votto’s numbers are actually somewhat closer though, with a .324/37/113 platfrom and .314/90/298 career. Of course, his multi-year deal limits his usefulness as a comparable.

Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado could serve as floors. Neither had the hardware, and both had relatively similar numbers except for far fewer career home runs when they entered the arb process. Machado had a .286/35/86 platform and a .281/68/215 career, while Arenado had a .287/42/130 platform and a .281/70/243 career. So I would guess that their identical $5MM salaries two years ago are a solid floor for Bryant.

I suspect Posey might actually be the best comparable, despite the fact that he plays a premium defensive position. Adding in salary inflation, his $8MM salary in 2013 puts Bryant around $9.5MM. I suspect he will not break Howard’s record, so this seems pretty believable. The Cubs could easily try to argue for a lower number like Arenado or Machado, but probably will have trouble making that case. However, the team could still try to push Bryant south of Posey’s $8MM. There is a large range of plausible outcomes for a case like this; it would represent a fascinating hearing if it went to a panel.

Draft Notes: Lewis, McKay, Day 2, Gore, Greene, Wright, Beck

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No. 1 overall draft pick Royce Lewis will take his physical with the Twins soon, tweets Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. There aren’t expected to be any hangups in negotiations, per Berardino, who notes that the industry expectation is for Lewis to receive a bonus north of Dansby Swanson’s $6.5MM bonus from the 2015 draft. The top pick in the draft came with a slot value of $7.7MM, and MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger wrote this week that Lewis could sign for around $1MM less than that sum. That’d put his bonus in the $6.5MM to $6.7MM range, saving the Twins anywhere from $1MM to $1.2MM from the slot value. FanRag’s Jon Heyman pegs the expected value at “just a tick over” $6.7MM. Rays top pick Brendan McKay, meanwhile, is expected to sign for somewhere between $7MM and $7.2MM, according to Berardino. That’d be the largest bonus ever given to a college player under the current draft structure, surpassing Kris Bryant’s $6.7MM sum.

More notes on the draft…

  • The Twins “crushed” Day 2 of the draft, MLB.com’s Jim Callis opines. Adding high school right-hander Blayne Enlow, a potential first-round talent that dropped due to a strong commitment to LSU, kicked off a day in which Minnesota selected five players that ranked inside MLB.com’s top 200 draft prospects. Enlow, Callis writes, has the best curveball in the draft as well as a fastball that has touched 94 mph and has room to grow as his projectable frame grows. Callis also lauds the White Sox, Dodgers, Red Sox and Brewers for the talent they secured in rounds three through 10. ESPN’s Keith Law agrees that the Twins did quite well to land Enlow with the No. 76 pick and also gives quite a bit of praise to the Athletics, who landed a first-round talent (in his estimation) with the 81st pick by taking shortstop Nick Allen. Law opines that the undersized Allen, who is listed at 5’8″, would’ve been a top 10 pick if he were three inches taller.
  • FanRag’s Jon Heyman provides some insight into the progress being made with the top five picks in the draft. The Padres, according to Heyman, are expected to sign No. 3 overall pick MacKenzie Gore, a high school left-hander, for the full slot value of $6,668,100. Reds top pick Hunter Greene, meanwhile, is expected to sign for a deal “close” to the $7,193,200 slot value of his No. 2 overall selection, per Heyman. (Also of note for Reds fans: Heyman spoke to a rival exec who heaped praise on the Reds’ draft, opining that they “won the draft by far.”) And the Braves look to be going well over slot to sign Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright, as Heyman reports that they’re discussing a deal worth close to $7MM, while the No. 5 slot carries a value of $5,707,300. Of course, Wright was long rumored to be a potential No. 1 overall pick, so it stands to reason that he’d come with a fairly sizable price tag.
  • Baseball America’s John Manuel reported yesterday that Stanford right-hander Tristan Beck, a potential first-round talent that missed the 2017 season due to a stress fracture in his lower back, will not sign and plans to head back to Stanford (Twitter link). That didn’t stop the Yankees from drafting him late (29th round), though New York would obviously need to give him a massive bonus in order to convince him to forgo a return to college, as a healthy Beck would do quite well in next year’s draft. The Yankees may not have the leftover money even to make a legitimate effort to sign Beck, though he makes for a nice contingency plan if the team unexpectedly finds itself with some extra pool money to play with.

Heyman’s Latest: Marlins, Rangers, Astros, Buyers, Extension Talks

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The Marlins sale could yet be more wide open, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. It’s still a “fluid” situation, he says, and it might not just involve the Jeter/Bush and Glavine/Romney bidding groups we’ve read so much about. Per Heyman, at least one other possible team — led by Dana Pawlicki of Stonington Capital Partners — is looking into putting together an alternative (or, perhaps, just joining one of those other groups). That said, an agreement of some kind could still happen in short order, says Heyman, perhaps within two weeks.

Heyman also looks at a variety of notable transactional situations from around the game (broken out by National League and American League). Here are some highlights:

  • Among organizations taking an early look at possible upgrades, the Rangers are said to be eyeing rotation help — if not also the addition of a bat. No doubt the loss of Cole Hamels for roughly two months will increase the urgency, though it’s also fair to wonder to what extent the team will end up buying at all. As Heyman and others have noted, if the Rangers’ struggles continue, that could free Texas to dangle Yu Darvish and Jonathan Lucroy at the deadline.
  • The division-rival Astros, meanwhile, are said to still have interest in acquiring a “front-line starter” — not that there’s any reason to believe that could happen before the summer. Of course, Houston has re-discovered its own ace to some extent, with a resurgent Dallas Keuchel looking good thus far. Heyman notes that the southpaw was approached “last winter and spring” about an extension, with the sides seemingly making some progress before talks fizzed. The possible deal would’ve gone beyond Keuchel’s arbitration eligibility, per the report, though there was no consensus on the specifics surrounding a potential club option. Keuchel’s iffy and injury-filled 2016 season presumably quashed any possibility of a revival of the discussions this past winter, though perhaps that could again become a possibility in the future.
  • There are other organizations taking a look around for assistance, though it’s not clear whether any are doing more than eyeing the waiver wire and veterans playing on minors contracts. The Red Sox are looking for rotation help while waiting for David Price, who is said to be nearing a rehab assignment. And the Tigers would like to bolster their beleaguered bullpen. The Diamondbacks will probably wait and see whether they can continue their hot start before deciding how to proceed, but Heyman notes that the club would likely “have some spending money” to work with if additions prove necessary and wise. On the sell side, the White Sox remain willing to deal despite their fairly solid start to the year. But the club isn’t backing down from its offseason asking prices, which is certainly no surprise given its prior stance and the promise of renewed demand at the trade deadline.
  • In addition to kicking around some ideas with Kris Bryant, which didn’t seem to gain much traction, the Cubs held some talks over the winter with catcher Willson Contreras, according to Heyman. It seems that the backstop’s reps weren’t keen on Chicago’s ideas, which would’ve included “multiple options” — no surprise, given that Contreras has just 108 days of MLB service under his belt.
  • Interestingly, Mets shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is said to have raised the possibility of an extension with the ballclub. But there wasn’t any interest on the team’s part, per Heyman, with New York preferring to wait and see how things progress. The club already holds an $8.5MM option ($2MM buyout) over the 31-year-old. While that seems likely to be exercised, with Cabrera perhaps moving to second or third to make way for Amed Rosario, the organization understandably did not wish to make a commitment further into the future.

N.L. Notes: Bellinger, Harvey, d’Arnaud, Bryant

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Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts acknowledged after last night’s game that there’s a chance top prospect Cody Bellinger won’t be optioned back to Triple-A when Joc Pederson is ready to return, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register was among those to report. The 21-year-old has only 32 plate appearances under his belt, but he is batting a robust .345/.406/.655 with three walks to go with five strikeouts. “I think I belong,” said Bellinger. His manager seemingly agreed, praising the youngster and noting that “things can change” when addressing the question whether Bellinger would be sent back as planned. The question remains one of playing time, as the organization no doubt prefers that Bellinger play more or less every day. Unless first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is sent to the DL to rest his forearm or the club decides to reduce the playing time of its existing group of outfielders, that might be difficult for the Dodgers to arrange.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • While Mets players and coaches say Matt Harvey has been on the rebound in terms of his stuff, the results just haven’t been there, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo explores. Both Harvey and manager Terry Collins say they believe the issue is command, especially with his secondary offerings. Whatever the cause, it’s concerning. While Harvey’s average velocity isn’t too far from his typical range, he is managing only a 7.4% swinging-strike rate. That has left him with as many earned runs as strikeouts (5.14 per nine apiece) over his 35 innings this year.
  • Meanwhile, Mets catch Travis d’Arnaud left yesterday’s game when his recent wrist injury “acted up,” in the words of Collins and as DiComo further reports. It’s not immediately clear whether he’ll miss any time; presumably, that’ll depend upon how the joint responds today. The 28-year-old has rebounded somewhat after a rough 2016 season at the plate. Over his 66 plate appearances, he owns a .203/.288/.475 batting line with four home runs and six walks against just 11 strikeouts — and a .182 BABIP that could suggest some misfortune.
  • Though Cubs star Kris Bryant was forced out of last night’s game with a calf issue, it doesn’t sound as if it’s much cause for concern. Bryant told reporters, including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter), that he is very confident of returning to the lineup today. Unsurprisingly, the 25-year-old has continued to rake in his third MLB campaign. Over 122 plate appearances, he’s slashing .291/.393/.553 — a near-exact match for the 2016 batting line that helped him to the NL MVP award.

Kris Bryant May “Just Play It Out” Rather Than Seek Extension

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There was little traction between reigning NL MVP Kris Bryant and the Cubs in their extension talks earlier this winter, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that Bryant doesn’t seem to be in any particular rush to lock up a long-term commitment.

“I guess it’s a little early,” Bryant told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. “I still feel super young. I’m still getting used to all of this playing at this level. I’ll listen to whatever they have to say, but I just think that it might be in my best interest to just play it out and see where things go….I’d rather just now focus on baseball and playing and not have any other distractions off the field like that, just because it’ll take away from my play on the field.”

Bryant, of course, has already pulled down a couple of notable paydays in his brief but outstanding professional career.  The 25-year-old signed with the Cubs for a $6.7084 bonus after being drafted second overall in 2013, and he will be paid $1.05MM in 2017, a record sum for a pre-arbitration player.  He will also be in line for a very enriching trip through the arbitration process beginning next winter, as Bryant is a virtual lock for a fourth year of arb eligibility as a Super Two player.

Given that Bryant entered tonight’s action with a .290/.396/.495 slash line over his 111 PA, he looks well on the way to matching or topping his superb numbers from his first two seasons, when he won NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2015 and followed it up with an MVP Award in 2016.  Bryant may well set another arbitration-related record in the offseason by earning the highest amount ever given to a player in his first year of arb-eligibility; Ryan Howard’s $10MM salary from the 2007-08 offseason is the current benchmark.  Barring injury or a significant downturn in performance, Bryant looks to be on pace to bank over $50MM through his four arbitration years before reaching free agency after the 2021 season.

Besides his comments and the lack of a driving financial incentive to sign a multi-year extension, there’s also the fact that Bryant is represented by Scott Boras, whose clients generally end up testing the open market rather than pursuing extensions with their original teams.  Boras recently discussed the Bryant talks, negotiating with Theo Epstein, and his general outlook on extensions in a wide-ranging and fascinating interview with Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci.

From the Cubs’ perspective, obviously they would like to keep one of the game’s best players in the fold, though there is also a case to be made that the Cubs may have no issue with going year-to-year with Bryant.  Extensions that cover arbitration years usually lock in some type of cost certainty for the team, though that is of less import with the Cubs given their payroll capacity.

The Cubs also have such a wealth of talent both on their current roster and in the minor league pipeline that, while losing Bryant would certainly be a blow, Chicago is much better-equipped than most franchises to withstand the loss of a superstar.  Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer could instead focus on extensions with other young stars like Kyle Hendricks, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber or Javier Baez — more urgently, the team will have to address big names like Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis and John Lackey hitting free agency this winter.  With Bryant still under control for four-plus seasons, inking him to an extension isn’t an especially pressing need for the Cubs, and of course quite a bit could change on either side between now and the end of the 2021 season.

Cubs “Got Nowhere” In Offseason Extension Talks With Kris Bryant

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The Cubs made an effort to lock up National League MVP Kris Bryant on a long-term extension this offseason but “got nowhere” in their efforts, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated reports. Verducci notes that the Cubs made efforts to lock up several of their young players, in fact, though they weren’t able to push any of them over the finish line. Chicago’s lone offseason extension was a one-year extension for excellent setup man Pedro Strop — a nice move for the club but not the sort of franchise-altering move that a long-term pact for Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell or any of the team’s other young talents would have been.

Bryant’s agent, Scott Boras, has a reputation for eschewing contract extensions and pushing his clients toward free agency — long-term deals for Carlos Gonzalez with the Rockies and Stephen Strasburg with the Nationals notwithstanding — though he spoke to Verducci at length about that perception and about extensions in general.

“My first rule [on extension offers] is that I tell the player, ‘Do not look at the team as if they’re trying to steal you. They’ve made the decision that is the right decision. The question is, What is the investment worth? What is the value?'” Boras explains to Verducci. In the case of Bryant, Boras adds that he was on the same page with Cubs president of baseball operations in terms of Bryant’s fit on the team but not when it came to appropriately valuing that fit.

Perhaps most interesting in the column is that Boras paints Epstein as somewhat of a tough negotiator. While Boras doesn’t indicate any ill will toward the iconic executive, he suggests to Verducci that there was never much progress when discussing Jacoby Ellsbury during Epstein’s days as GM of the Red Sox, where Ellsbury starred for the first seven seasons of his career. Ellsbury went year-to-year through the arbitration process and ultimately signed with the Yankees on a seven-year, $153MM contract as a free agent.

“Theo does not settle on certain things,” says Boras. “He offers a very limited range. You’ve got to give up an option year, a free agent year and he can move you whenever he wants to move you.”

While it’s hard to argue with the results for Epstein, who in the past 15 years has broken two of the three longest World Series droughts in baseball (World Series wins with the Red Sox in 2004 and 2007 and, of course, with the Cubs last year), those words may nonetheless be discouraging for Cubs fans. That’s due not only to the fact that Boras represents Bryant but also due to the fact that his company represents Russell and Jake Arrieta. The lack of traction in Arrieta extension talks has been an oft-covered topic here at MLBTR, and Boras’ comments certainly don’t paint a promising picture when it comes to securing long-term deals with either Bryant or Russell. While Arrieta is a free agent at the end of the current season, both Bryant and Russell are controllable through the 2021 season.

That leaves ample time for the Cubs to strike a deal with either Bryant or Russell, but arbitration is also looming for each player. Both entered the season just days (or, in Bryant’s case, a singular day) shy of two years of Major League service time, meaning each will be eligible for arbitration as a Super Two player next offseason. And it’s worth noting that it’s almost certainly not an accident that the pair fell just days shy of qualifying for free agency a year earlier, though the Cubs are hardly the only team to leverage the current service time structure in order to delay free agency by a full year.

In Bryant’s case, the NL Rookie of the Year Award and NL MVP that are already under his belt could very well allow him to topple Ryan Howard’s longstanding record of $10MM for a first-time arbitration player. Howard, much like Bryant, had a Rookie of the Year and an MVP on his record when he received that staggering sum. Russell’s earning capacity is understandably lower, though as a shortstop that could hit arbitration with multiple 20-homer seasons already in his back pocket, he should be paid handsomely over his four years of eligibility.

As Verducci suggested in reporting that Indians star Francisco Lindor turned down an extension offer of “around $100 million” within this same column (more on that decision here), the increasingly strong market for top-tier free agents is likely to continue pushing forward the price for extending top-tier young players such as Bryant or Lindor. Verducci points out that the 2018-19 free agent class stands to be headlined by a pair of players (Bryce Harper and Manny Machado) that could sign contracts which eclipse Giancarlo Stanton’s current 13-year, $325MM record and could crack the $400MM barrier. And at this point, with Bryant just a year from reaching what could be a record-setting arbitration payday, I’d imagine that any offer that does not top Stanton would be a non-starter in extension talks.

Boras, unsurprisingly, had plenty to say on the notion of escalating free agent prices as well. After revealing that former client Alex Rodriguez turned down a $120MM extension offer from the Mariners before signing a then-record-setting $240MM contract with the Rangers all the way back in 2001, Boras tells Verducci:

“Rule number one in baseball is that no team has ever gone broke. Rule number two is that there’s never been an owner who didn’t make money when he sold the team. And rule number three is that there are no recessions in baseball.”

Suffice it to say, Verducci’s full column qualifies as a must-read not only for those who follow the Cubs and Indians but for all fans. The column is stuffed with quotes from Boras, other agents and executives about the rapidly escalating valuation of players and provides a good idea of what could be in store for baseball’s financial landscape.

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